Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
Would I Buy Disney?
We have mostly red arrows around the world to start this holiday-shortened week. Remember the market is closed Thursday and shuts at 1 pm Friday. Europe is lower with the DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.2%, and FTSE -0.1%. Asia is lower. The Hang Seng is -1.8% but it’s had a huge move off the lows. The Fed’s Bostic said “we may be done within 75bp-100bp” this weekend. SPX futures are -24 to start the week. The question is do we hold the 3906-3935 area to keep this active sequence intact for another move above 4028? Or was that it? The next day or two will be important. DIS is gapping up on Iger’s return but I wouldn’t chase it. $102ish is resistance Now let’s get into some of the other names I’m watching: AAPL isn’t special but gives opportunities. If this market is going to hold up this week, it will need this to be decent. This morning it’s below the $149.97 low from Friday. See if that gets reclaimed. If not, $148.56 is key. I have some calls on, but no stock. I’ll see if it’s buyable today with a signal. TSLA lost special status on 9/21-9/22 when it broke $305. It has been for sale since then. On Friday it toyed with the lows of the year as it hit $176.50. See how it handles that spot today. Elon Musk created his own problems with Twitter. The monthly chart has been super bearish for a while now. NFLX: Ryan Cohen is building an active stake but that isn’t affecting the price this morning. It hit $312 and broke $299. We”ll see if it can go red to green and reclaim Friday’s low of $287 to relieve some pressure. GOOGL hit a high of $100.14 in this oversold rally. Now it’s faltering. See if it tries to reclaim $96.37. Otherwise it can see $94 pretty fast AMZN’s bounce was lethargic. It hit a low of $92.48 That’s your new pivot support to trade against. META hit a high of $118.72 in the recent rally. Now, see if it can hold $109.80. See if it can go red-to-green today for cash flow. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-21 at 7.37.58 AM
Continue Reading -->5 Big Tech Names to Watch
SPY had a big gap and go on Thursday, giving some $385 to be long against. It cleared $390.39 to see $399.35 on Friday. We’ll see if it can digest above $393.61 to build a new flag to keep this active sequence going. The 20 day is above with a gap that might get filled up to $408ish. Now let’s dig into 5 big tech names on my radar: AAPL participated as everything ignited post-CPI. Now we’ll see if the $144 area holds to keep some commitment. The 200 day could be hard to get through above with Friday’s high at $150.01. TSLA’s bounce wasn’t great. After making a low of $177, it hit $196.52 on Friday. See if it holds $192-$194 to keep the oversold bounce going. It will be hard to get and stay above $204-$210 in the week ahead. MSFT had a better bounce pre-CPI and then was stronger than most names. It hit $247.99 Friday. Now see if it can digest above $241. AMZN had a decent bounce but these things need so much time to rebuild. Now see if it can hold the $96 area to stay a bit constructive. There’s a big gap above near $104. On Friday it hit a high of $101.19. GOOGL responded pretty well. Some news of Insider buying helped. Now see if it can digest above $93.92 to stay constructive. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-14 at 9.35.55 AM:
Continue Reading -->4 Stocks I’m Eyeing This Week
We have mostly red arrows around the world after a big four-week rally. Asia still doesn’t act well after China’s NBS PMI’s fell short. Hong Kong’s Q3 GDP report was soft. Developments in Russia/Ukraine are also weighing as Moscow withdrew from the grain agreement. SPX futures are -24. We hit 3905 Friday. I’d think a bit of digestion ahead of the Fed Wednesday makes sense. Holding 3862ish would be very constructive. 3803-3806 is the line in the sand for the active bulls and this active sequence. Now let’s go through 4 names I’m watching: AAPL responded very well to earnings. It gave us a way to be long as it cleared $149 to see $157.50. There is news that Foxconn will shut for Covid, but that shouldn’t change much. A little digestion above $152.50 should be constructive. Holding $154ish would even be better. AMD reports after the close tomorrow. It’s been pressured all year. We uncovered the H&S pattern helping us stay out of the way. I’m long a little into today. We’ll see if it goes green with pivot resistance at $62.72. If not, I’ll be out. COIN is after the close Thursday, We had a decent trade last week. I bought some back on Friday. We’ll see if it gets any more play prior. It needs to hold $5=69 and perhaps we can add over $73.72. TSLA gave us a very tradable move last week with a Red Dog Reversal at $202 and then another entry when it cleared $213.50. It hit the $233 area. For this week, we’ll see if it can hold Friday’s low of $216 or higher for an additional move towards $250. But we’ll take it somewhat slow. I’ll be active here if I get the signals. Positions Disclosure: *As of 8:20am ET October 31, 2022
Continue Reading -->4 Tech Stocks on the Earnings Radar
We have mixed markets around the world to start the week. In Asia, the Hang Seng was down 6%ish after Xi secured his third term. In Europe, the former Chancellor Sunak is the favorite after Boris pulled out. SPX futures were above 3800 last night and below 3725 early this morning. They are now firmer. We’ll see if the Inverse H&S pattern can measure a move to 3800-3900 in the next week or so. Holding 3656 keeps this active sequence intact. There are lots of big earnings this week. MSFT, GOOGL, and V are on Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is META and BA. On Thursday, it’s AAPL, AMZN, SHOP, and MRK. Now let’s go through 4 tech names that are reporting this week: AAPL cleared a small downtrend on Friday as it held $141.50 all week. I’m long and will see if it can go green and move towards $148.50 or higher pre-earnings Thursday. NFLX was a great focus last week. Some are long vs. $262 and there was a nice play Friday as it cleared $279.30 to see $290.75. I’m still long stock and I have a new call spread. The gap gets filled up to $331. Use your tier system. MSFT reports tomorrow, it will be important as it made new lows on the year. How it responds will give some clues if this rally attempt can continue. For today, see how it deals with $243 pivot resistance. GOOGL is in a troubled sector that made new lows on the year. Look at SNAP and META. It will be important to hear what it says Tuesday and how it responds. I’m staying away for now. META reports Wednesday. It’s made new lows on the year a few times in the past few months. On Friday, it came off the lows. I’m avoiding it but will see where it is Wednesday for an option play. We’ll see if it can hold above $126 to keeps some pressure off. Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Credit Suisse = New Lehman?
We have mixed markets around the world after an erratic SPX futures night. Europe is off the lows. The UK government reversed course and abandoned a plan to scrap the top 45% tax rate. Gilts aren’t moving much. Brent prices are up with OPC cuts, and Putin didn’t do anything crazy. Ukraine took back some stolen land. Credit Suisse remains in a news doom loop. Some are saying it’s not a Lehman moment. But let’s focus on levels first and headlines second. SPX futures are +25 after they were down 35 last night. We’ll see if new flows try and bounce the tape. There’s resistance at 3610-3636. The bears need to reject price there to keep active pressure on. Now let’s go through the major ETF’s I’m watching today: ARKK didn’t make new lows on the year. We’ll see if that means anything when this market wants to bounce. $37ish is pivot support to watch. Biotech acts better than most sectors but it’s hard to get excited. Active support is XBI $77.57. Resistance is $82ish. XLE acted better over the past two sessions as most sectors made new lows on the year. Oil is up this morning on news of an OPEC cut. There’s a gap to fill up to $75ish. It’s probably a better sale than add. XLF is trying to create a lower tight pivot area to resolve at some point. There is lots of talk about CS and comparisons to Lehman or Bear. This sector doesn’t act compelling. Watch $30.12 for market clues. Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->Are We Oversold Enough Now?
We have mixed markets around the world as Europe is flattish and Asia is broadly lower. Lots of currency moves are adding pressure to equities. The Fed funds ceiling forecast is now 4.75%, higher than the Dot Plot. Some think the BOE needs to do a pre-meeting hike to calm things down. SPX futures are -21 and we’ll see if the market is oversold enough to hold the 3636-3647 area this week. The active bearish sequence continues. The hot CPI brought some pressure, and then last Wednesday there was a Red Dog Reversal sell around the $386.25 pivot. Can the SPY hold $362-$363.29 to attempt an oversold bounce? We shall see. The Oscillator is -100 so it’s hard to short, but you can’t blindly buy either. Now let’s go through the major tech names I’m watching today: AAPL did a Red Dog Reversal sell on Fed day to get most long out around $158. It hit a low near $148.50 Friday. It will be important over the next day or so. It will be hard for SPY and QQQ to break the June lows if AAPL holds that spot. If it breaks and closes below, the bears will growl. TSLA played downside catch-up fast. It broke $305 and then $290 to lose any upper support. Now see if it can hold the $272 area for a day or so. If not, $265 is support below, MSFT led the tape lower over the past week or so. We’ll see if it can hold $235.20 for a tactical bounce. AMZN is in no man’s land. It’s not special, but it’s not at the lows of the year. $112ish is Friday’s low to use for today. Maybe it tries to go red to green. Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->5 Tech Stocks on My Radar
We have mixed markets around the world as we see if regions can find footing after Friday’s post-NFP bearish reversal. Some are asking if we will test the June low in the next 4-6 weeks? Can we break those lows? Or was last Thursday the low? These are all valid questions but we have to take things day-by-day within the context of what we can handle and what time frame we’re on. SPX futures are +23. If the candle from Friday wants to lead to more downside, then sellers must reject price in the 3954-3969 area. If the buyers want to push back a bit, they must reclaim that area to build a lower area to trade against. To see the lows of the year, we need to get and stay below 3903 first. So that’s the support pivot. The longer we stay below 4018, the higher the probability that happens. Now let’s dig into some important tech names: META tried to get out of the danger zone on SNAP’s news but strength got sold again into the $167 area. If it breaks and stays below $154-$155 in the days ahead, it would bring out sellers in most risk assets. It needs to bounce fast to get out of the danger zone. NFLX went from $216 to hit a high of $251+ post-earnings with lots of pivots to play for cash flow. Most sold into strength or used $241 as a stop. $233 is resistance. $218.74 is big support now. MSFT isn’t helping the tape. It broke its ascending channel on 8/19. It made a low of $254 last week. See if that tries to hold. If not, it won’t be good for tech. $264ish is resistance. NVDA was the first big name to make lower lows in a while. It hasn’t bounced much since then. Look here for some sentiment clues. The longer it stays below the $143 area, the higher the probability for lower lows. $132.70 is last week’s low. AMD broke its symmetrical triangle to the downside around $96ish. It got hit with NVDA but didn’t make new lows on the year. Watch it for sentiment. Does it catch up to the downside or diverge a bit? $78.52 is last week’s low. If that breaks this week, it will be bad for tech and sentiment. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->6 Tech Names You Should Watch Today
We have mostly red arrows around the world as central banks remain hawkish in a tough fight against inflation. Powell’s remarks at Jackson hole saying it will take some pain and sacrifice brought out sellers. The SPX sliced below 4144 and 4120 to make a low of 4056. This morning it’s getting some downside follow-through. I’d think 3980-3990 holds (around the 50 day) if we get there. I’d use 5-15-30 minute lows to buy against for tactical cash flow. Pressing the morning could be tough with the Oscillator -60. AAPL did a Red Dog Reversal sell Friday around $170.14 to get some out and it hit a low of $163.56. $159ish is gap support below to measure. Or use a 5-15-30 minute low. Watch this for clues for today. MSFT hit a high of $294 and then stopped most out around $289 when the accelerated trend broke. On Friday it hit a low of $267.98. I’d cover some. Maybe there’s a trade vs. a 5-15-30 minute low if this market wants to find some footing today. AMZN stopped most out around $140.78 Now it’s just a tactical trade.See if there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to trade against. It’s in the post-earnings gap that is open down to the $123 area. GOOGL broke its ascending channel to stop most out around $119ish. It did lag on that June bounce. It made a low of $110.19 Friday. Maybe there’s a trade vs. the $108 area. META is still very challenged and might make new lows. $154 is a big area. $159.77 is micro support. NFLX had a great post-earnings sequence from $216 to hit a high of $251+ with lots of pivots to play for cash flow. Most sold into strength or used $241 as a stop. On Friday it did a Red Dog Reversal around the $234 pivot and hit a low of $223. $217ish is pretty big support. We’ll be tactical here. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->5 Risky Names I’m Watching
SPX futures are -25 after hitting a high of 4280 Friday. This active sequence has paid traders to buy dips and rotate between sectors. There’s been a ton of participation. SPX took back over half of the corrective phase which was impressive. Today, we’ll see how we digest. The Oscillator hit +59 (overbought is +40). I’d think 4200-4220 holds this week if they want to keep this active sequence intact. Now let’s dig into some of the more speculative names on my radar: GOEV has a decent lower-level chart pattern. Some of these types of names are working. I bought some Friday. It needs to hold $3.90. Above $4.30 and I may add. DNA: I bought some last week and trimmed into the ramp-up. It needs to hold $3.20 PETZ had a few volume spikes. It needs to hold $2.40. See if it clears $3.17 on volume. GROV: I bought some vs. the $4.60 area. Watch here for a volume spike. BLUE was great from the $4.75 area to $7 Friday. I’m smaller but staying with it for now. Scott’s Positions Disclosure
Continue Reading -->5 Big Tech Names You Need to Watch
We have mixed markets around the world with an upbeat feel. Europe has green arrows and Asia is a bit muted. Last Friday, the markets took the hot jobs report in stride as SPX held 4107. Lots of sectors acted well to extend the active sequence intact from the June lows. We have the CPI on Wednesday. Stay nimble, take trades, and try not to get caught up in opinions. You need to avoid revenge trading and pain trades. 4167 is last week’s high. I don’t think we’ll hit new highs this year, but 4220 can happen in the weeks ahead. We’ll go day-by-day to measure the action. Now let’s go through 5 big names we should all be watching: TSLA went from $760 to $940 the past few weeks. Many traders got stopped out as it broke $915 to see a low of $856. We’ll see if the early strength holds today. I’d approach it slowly. AAPL led the move off the June lows to see a high of $166.59. It held in pretty well Friday, giving us the $163 area to trade against. I wouldn’t chase this open, that but that doesn’t mean it’s an easy short. MSFT was a great trade from $260 to $283+. I sold mine. It acted fine Friday and some bought the dip. Today it’s above $283.80. I’d trim into strength and buy dips. GOOGL lags a bit but I bought some calls early last week and some stock in case it wants to play catchup. It needs to hold $116. A strong move on volume above $118.78 and $119.69 will open the door for higher prices. META held $154-$155 and got out of the danger zone as it cleared $165 to see $172.50+. I put on a call spread for this Friday. We’ll see if it tries to play catch-up. It needs to clear $172 with power for that. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
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