Are We Oversold Enough Now?


We have mixed markets around the world as Europe is flattish and Asia is broadly lower. Lots of currency moves are adding pressure to equities. The Fed funds ceiling forecast is now 4.75%, higher than the Dot Plot. Some think the BOE needs to do a pre-meeting hike to calm things down.

SPX futures are -21 and we’ll see if the market is oversold enough to hold the 3636-3647 area this week. The active bearish sequence continues. The hot CPI brought some pressure, and then last Wednesday there was a Red Dog Reversal sell around the $386.25 pivot.

Can the SPY hold $362-$363.29 to attempt an oversold bounce? We shall see.

The Oscillator is -100 so it’s hard to short, but you can't blindly buy either.

Now let's go through the major tech names I'm watching today:

AAPL did a Red Dog Reversal sell on Fed day to get most long out around $158. It hit a low near $148.50 Friday. It will be important over the next day or so. It will be hard for SPY and QQQ to break the June lows if AAPL holds that spot. If it breaks and closes below, the bears will growl.

TSLA played downside catch-up fast. It broke $305 and then $290 to lose any upper support. Now see if it can hold the $272 area for a day or so. If not, $265 is support below,

MSFT led the tape lower over the past week or so. We’ll see if it can hold $235.20 for a tactical bounce.

AMZN is in no man’s land. It’s not special, but it’s not at the lows of the year. $112ish is Friday's low to use for today. Maybe it tries to go red to green.

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