Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
Blood On the Street?
We just got the February jobs report, which was mostly in-line with a headline number of 151K. The big question everyone is asking me is “Is It Blood On The Street Time?” For now, the answer is… no. As of 9:23 am this morning, SPY is up about 20 cents and the QQQ’s are flatlining. So this does not feel like a major inflection point. One buying scenario I had in mind was a real miss on the jobs report with a hard push down to the SPY $565 area and a close dead on the lows. That was where I wanted to put money to work. But the market does not always conform to my plans, so I’m instead going to map out levels and take what the day gives me. Right now, SPY $570.12 is key. That’s yesterday’s low. If the bears break us below that, there could be more downside to the $565 area, which could set up a good long opportunity. I’m also watching these levels as key indicators for risk and sentiment: QQQ: $496.20 IWM: $203.09 NVDA: $110 TSLA: $260 AMZN: $178 PLTR $78 The more of these levels break, the more aggressive the selling can get. Broadcom (AVGO) is also key. If it can’t hold its post-earnings gains, what would be bad for the market. From a more macro perspective, the SPY is just 5% off the highs. Historically, the average pullback is about 13%. And I think we’ll see at least one like that this year, with the potential for SPY to see $542 or $528. Remember, we’re coming off a 25% gain in 2024 and a 26% gain in 2023, without much volatility along the way. Sooner or later, things will average out and we’ll see some downside. But until those key levels I listed above break, we will not likely see a major inflection point. This is why we focus on price action and not opinions. The market rarely does what you think it “should.” *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-03-07 at 9.19.55 AM
Continue Reading -->NVIDIA: 4 Sell Signals in One Day
I came into NVIDIA’s (NVDA) fourth-quarter earnings report expecting some level of disappointment. I told Power Plays Options Subscribers the following on Wednesday: I believe NVIDIA (NVDA) is at risk of a post-earnings decline so I am adding this position: Long NVDA February 28 $120 Puts These puts look good in the $2.75 to $3.50 area (or lower). With Nvidia’s decline off its highs and lower valuation, some believe a lot of bad news priced in. I disagree. We’re still looking at a stock with a $3 trillion market cap and rosy expectations for endless long-term growth. So to me, the odds favor a post earnings decline. If this report isn’t anything less than 100% shoot-out-the-lights perfect, we could see a hard drop below the $120 area. Incidentally, this was the first put options idea in Power Plays Options history. We did get the hard drop in NVDA stock below $120 — but it unfolded over the course of 2 days. In fact, NVDA put in 4 sell signals the day after earnings (yes, 4 sell signals in one day) as you can see in this chart: I love teaching my Sell Rules — and this is an interesting case study because you so rarely see so many hit in one day. Here’s how NVDA’s decline happened so fast: Sell Signal #1: NVDA hit $135+ the day after earnings, a good spot to trim since the report was solid but not spectacular Sell Signal #2: the stock broke down through $133,73, a prior high. Sell Signal #3: NVDA went red and lost the 8/21/50 day moving averages Sell Signal #4: NVDA breaks the $124.44 prior low. It also broke the 200 day moving average here, though I didn’t put this in the chart above to avoid it being too crowded. And on Friday, we got that hard break below $120, with NVDA hitting a low of $116.41. We cashed in the puts for Power Plays Options shortly after the open for a 62% gain. I was tempted to roll the dice and hold the puts longer, but I didn’t want to take the risk of them turning into a zero. That turned out to be the right decision because as of the time I’m writing this, NVDA is over $122 and those puts are headed towards zero fast. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-02-28 at 10.32.43 AM
Continue Reading -->How to Trade Options on Earnings – DASH Case Study
At the end of last year, I named DoorDash (DASH) one of my top picks for 2025. In my 2025 Market Outlook, I said the stock could hit the $225 to $240 area — which I still think is doable. But today I want to show you how Power Plays Options (my new options alert newsletter) navigated the company’s Q4 earnings report on February 11. We’ll go over: Why I used a call spread instead of straight calls Why sacrificing some reward led to a bigger gain How you can get my next options idea For reference, here’s my take on DASH from the Market Outlook Report: (click to enlarge) The DoorDash situation was tricky for several reasons. I liked the technical setup and the stock’s leadership status. So I wanted to be long via call options. But it wasn’t that simple. The stock had already gone up 16% in 2025 after a 70% run last year. And the options were expensive. The market was pricing in an 8.9% move even though the stock tended to move about 6.5% after earnings. So I decided to use a February 21 $202.50 X $215 call spread. (meaning long the $202.50’s, and short the $215’s) The spread was at $3.05 when we sent the alert out, while the straight February $202.50 calls were at $5.60. Why this particular call spread position? Because while a call spread capped my upside potential, it lowered the cost of the position, offsetting the expensive nature of the calls. So if DoorDash went down or sideways after earnings, I’d lose much less than if I’d taken straight calls. And yes, despite what you’ve heard on TikTok… real traders lose money sometimes. In any case, I didn’t see DoorDash getting much above $215 in even the best-case scenario. I used a February 21 expiration to give me a little extra time in the position. This way, if the stock didn’t go straight up, I’d have more room to let it rebound. And that’s exactly what happened. DoorDash stock got hit on Wednesday after earnings… and then rose like a beast on Thursday before extending Friday as traders refocused on the long-term growth story. And here’s how the entire idea has gone so far in Power Plays Options. Note, this is a chart of the actual call spread — not DASH stock: We added the spread at $3.05 on Tuesday, took off half on the open today at $4.32. And as of Friday 2/14 at 12:45 pm ET, we are letting the second half ride with the spread over $7.40 — a 100%+ move. (note: there is a chance Power Plays Options will close out the remainder by the time you read this) Over the same time span, the straight $202.50 calls went from $5.60 to $8.80, up 57%. That’s a nice gain — but it’s actually a smaller percentage increase than the $202.50 X $215 call spread we used in Power Plays Options. The straight calls have a smaller gain because they were so much more expensive in the first place. So by sacrificing some potential return, I actually increased my reward. Now, not every idea works out like this — but it’s awesome when they do! Featured: Get My #1 Options Idea Each Week If you like actionable options ideas delivered in plain English every week, join Power Plays Options today. It’s just $199 to get started. See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-02-14 at 12.19.34 PM
Continue Reading -->Why I Bought Apple
Scott Redler appeared on Fox Business to go over the market action: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com Scott goes over: The impact of the market lifting after the hot CPI report so fast What Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) told him about the action Why he got back in Apple, and the impact of the Alibaba (BABA) news The reason Meta (META) is tricky now The new China name he got into on Wednesday Why the PPI report has less “shock value” than the CPI What traders should really pay attention to – the price action How Treasury yields impact equities And more! Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-02-13 at 10.13.53 AM
Continue Reading -->Tech Meltdown
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. We have mostly red arrows around the World as headlines about “DeepSeek” get debated. AI optimism fueled tech for the past two years, so any disruptions and the market gets emotional. We’ll see how emotional after some price discovery today. SPX futures -140, a pretty sizable down move after a small sell signal on Friday. We did reduce some risk as the SPY did a Red Dog Reversal sell, QQQ made a lower high and NVDA gave a bearish engulfing candle on Friday to adjust. But being small could hurt as the move this morning is bigger than usual. We’ll see how the market reacts this morning after discovery. 5905-5930 is pretty decent support to see if it holds. Now let’s dig into some names. NVDA thank goodness this gave a Red Dog Reversal sell into a bearish engulfing candle to get me out of my long here. Now we see if the $126-$129 area holds. I’ll see if we get a 5-15-30-60 minute pivot to try against. Take care here, it will be a fast emotional trade. AMZN is down with the tech sell down. I do still have some from last week. Pre- market low is $219ish. We’ll see if we get a 5-15-30-60 minute low to buy against and trade around it. We still have this name in Power Plays from the $224 area. META I did buy calls when the stock was $625ish and then created a call spread as it hit $652+ on Friday. It said it’s increasing cap ex as the DeepSeek debate gets loud. I will probably cover my short calls and keep the long on for earnings this week. We’ll see what pivot we get this morning to use. MSFT lagged for the past 6 months. It’s down harder than other names as it put a lot of money into AI. We’ll see if we get a 5-15-30 minute low to use. I’ll avoid but watch. $410ish is a big support spot. Earnings are this week. AAPL never spent a ton on AI, so it will be interesting if this goes from the most challenged Mag7 or starts to act better. $219.38 is the recent low. I’ll see if I get a signal to buy to go green as I’ve avoided this name for the past few weeks as actively it’s been an avoid since breaking $253ish. Earnings are on Thursday. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. This Week’s Calendar This is a huge week with the FOMC, earnings from META MSFT TSLA AAPL, and the PCE price index. Take a look: *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-27 at 8.17.08 AM
Continue Reading -->After A Big Move
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. We have mixed markets around the World as we try and figure out the new administration’s tariffs and fiscal policy. SPX hit a new all-time high and backed off a little after a big run to 6100. We’ll see if 6076 holds, or do they fill that gap towards 6051. Even a test of the 6010 area would be constructive. Now let’s dig into some names. NFLX made its high in the first few minutes post earnings around $999 and grinded lower all day. $950.79 is the gap pivot. We’ll see if that holds, or do they play with it today. $941 is prior high area that is worth a look if it gets more downside today. AMZN great move for us from $220ish up thru the all-time high of $233 to see $235+ as I reduced size. I’ll see if I can add some vs the $229-$231area to go red to green to keep managing my size. META seems set up for new all-time highs but it’s a little tricky at times. Some are long vs the $603 area. I have two sets of calls but I did trim some yesterday as it hit $631. It was upgraded today. We’ll see how it reacts. NVDA got us long Tuesday as it cleared the $138 area and I did reduce into $147+. Now, we see if it’s buyable vs the $143 gap pivot to keep managing our size to stay with this active swing. DASH builds a nice upper channel. Power plays and I bought this vs the $164-$166 area. Tuesday it cleared $175 and seems on its way to $225+ in 2025. The next obstacle is $181.75. It was upgraded this morning. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-23 at 8.25.55 AM
Continue Reading -->Netflix Earnings Are Next
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. We have mixed markets around the world post-inauguration day. SPX futures were up 18 as I trimmed some longs around 7:00 as it feels like things can be erratic and change. So far we did get a flood of executive orders, the market is most focused on tariffs. As of now Trump warned of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as of 2/1. Markets have to distinguish between what’s real and what’s the Art Of The Deal. Now let’s dig into some names. NFLX reports today after the close. It was a very strong name in 2024 that did correct from $941 down to $823ish. I’m not playing prior with options but will see after. How it responds could be important for risk, the $915 area is some resistance as well. TSLA gets the benefit of the doubt as Elon is high up the Trump ladder. It’s also above the 8/21-day. I did trim some up $9 this morning and I’ll try and hold some to see how the week plays out. $439.74 is Friday’s high to see how it reacts there. AAPL so far is the worst Mag7 name in 2025 but also ramped up into year-end 2024. First sell signal was $257 then $253 when it broke the 8 day. Last week it held the 100 day near $229 and then got rejected at the 8 day. Friday’s bounce was sold, there was no reason to be in this actively. It was downgraded and had poor China sales. See if it stays below $228ish. If so it can be worth a look at the 200 day near $222. AMZN looks better than most Mag7 names as it’s above the 8/21day. I’m long and did trim some. I’ll see how much of today’s gap holds, or not. $226ish is one key, then $229 the ATH area. We have this name in Power Plays. ONON continues to show leadership and is a current Power Plays name. I have stock and options from the base near the $55 area. It hit $59+ Friday to manage. I’d think new all time highs are possible in the sessions ahead. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. This Week’s Calendar Q4 earnings season continues this week, the biggest name reporting is NFLX after the close today *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-121 at 8.14.42 AM
Continue Reading -->Blood on the Street?
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. We have mostly red arrows around the world as the correction continues. Nvidia’s (NVDA) CES bounce was sold, and then the SPX lost the 8/21 day around 5960ish. Futures are -50 as we see if we make an active low in the first hour or if we see a trend down day. Higher rates are turning into a big headwind for equities, which is why I’ve been urging you to watch TLT. On Friday morning, Power Plays closed out all our longs, so we avoided the carnage this morning. You can sign up here to know when the next idea goes out. On Friday, the oscillator was -40ish, so this morning we are very oversold and it’s not the time to press shorts. Many are asking me about the BOS account. The SPX 5650ish area would be 7%+ off highs and a spot where I might put the first tier to work. We’ll see. These first two names are a big focus for me today: TSLA: the Red Dog Reversal sell around $484 feels like years ago. We then had a lower high at $465, and then the bounce into the $426 area was rejected. Selling puts the last two weeks worked a bit. I am still short $360 puts. On Friday, it showed a little relative strength and I’m looking for a signal to buy. META is tricky but could benefit from a TikTok ban, which looks like it will happen. Watch it today. Friday’s low is $597. It’s way above that. When this market finds a bottom, this might be best in breed so it should be on the radar. AMZN lost potential special status when it broke the $224 area. Now it’s only a tactical trade until the market finds its footing. $216.50 is Friday’s low. I’ll look for an opportunity this morning. The 50-day is right under. AAPL broke $257ish to get most active longs more tactical as it was super extended into late December. It broke the 8-day to confirm our tactical approach prior. I tried it into the 50-day Friday and lost money when it hit the $233 area. I’ll see if it holds above that today. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Focus on Execution First, Money Second If you get good at anything, the money’s going to come eventually. So focus on developing your skills and properly executing the strategies you learn. That’s what’s going to keep you in the game for the long run. Fast money leaves just as fast as it arrived. You want to develop a set of trading strategies that can give you consistent profits, no matter what’s happening in the market. Once your brain gets big, your wallet follows. This Week’s Calendar We have a busy week ahead with PPI, CPI, plus some key earnings reports from the big banks. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-13 at 8.08.10 AM
Continue Reading -->Nvidia #1 – But for How Long?
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Week. SPX futures are +30 after Friday gave us clues to put on more risk. The leaders leaders acted well and the SPX took back the 50-day. The neckline near 5832-5866 served as better support, and now we’ll see if they blow out the right shoulder with a strong close above the 6006 area. That would negate the bear case. I added NVDA to Power Plays on the open Friday after the stock regained leadership status. It’s the #1 Mag7 name to kick off the new year. And the game plan is to trim into this morning’s strength. CEO Jensen Huang is doing a keynote at CES tonight, but the stock’s already moved quite a bit. But I’ll be looking to buy weakness because I see more upside in the weeks ahead. AVGO still looks great. We highlighted it as a leader last week. And if markets continue higher, $251+ can happen in the days or weeks ahead. META had a decent close Friday. I have calls on, and it’s still a Power Plays name. Now we’ll see if it gets and stays above $611.50 to start a sequence higher. $616ish is above that. NFLX stopped out most active longs around $915 and hit a low of $877 last week. Not much to do here as it tries to figure out what’s next. It’s below the 8/21-day now, so it’s time to be tactical. I bought CCJ back after its corrective phase when gave it $51.60 to buy against. Now, we’ll see if it starts trading better. The first obstacle is to hold early gains and build. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-06 at 7.28.17 AM
Continue Reading -->This NVIDIA Level Is Key Right Now
LIMITED ENROLLMENT: Brought to You By Power Plays Options – Get My #1 Pick Each Week Registration closes soon. Do not miss this opportunity. We have a big divergence to start 2025. International stocks are under pressure while SPX futures are up. It will be important to see if early strength holds and builds, or if it fades. First resistance area is SPX 5929-5940. If it clears and holds, it will push the active bears back. Now let’s dig into some names: VAL finally triggered as a January effect name, so I’m glad we added it to Power Plays Options on December 30. It’s up about 2% this morning on a rise in oil prices. $46ish is some resistance. I’d look to trim and trail. NVDA has been range bound since the $149.76 Red Dog Reversal sell post-earnings. It hit $133 to close 2024. We’ll see how it reacts on Day #1 of 2025. Will early strength hold, or be sold? $138 is big resistance so keep that price on your radar. This is a key name that could affect the complexion of early 2025. AVGO showed relative strength to close 2024 so we need to see how it trades in early January. $238 is pivot resistance. $231 is big active support that I want to see remain intact. RDDT put in a small topping tail as it hit $182.20. For today, see if early strength holds or if profit takers come in. $162 is key upper support that needs to hold now. AMZN: after a big move from $202 to $233, it stopped many out as it broke below $226 to see the $218 area. For today, we’ll see if early strength gets faded or holds. See if it clears $223. LIMITED ENROLLMENT OPPORTUNITY Get Scott’s #1 options idea each week. Registration closes Sunday. Do not miss out your chance: See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-01-02 at 7.53.59 AM
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