Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Facing Facebook
SPY closed on the lows last week below the 8/21 day which had me taking risk down. If sellers want to keep some active control, they need to reject the price into the $448.75-$449.50 area. That is the range you need to watch today, so keep it on your radar.Now let’s dig into some key names, starting with a big one: FB seemed the strongest on Friday and if the market hangs in, it might be a focus to clear the $384.33 pivot to make new all-time highs. GS upgraded it this morning. This name has been very good to us. If tech gets sold, use $380.50 as upper support. AAPL: there’s lots of debate on the ramifications of the Epic verdict. The stock broke $153.95 and the $151.29 pivot to flush some active longs out. We’ll see if it was an over reaction. It’s bouncing back a bit this morning. If sellers want to keep some control, I’d think they reject price into the $151.29 area. Also, if this goes from green to red, it might bring out sellers in tech. AMZN had a nice move after clearing the descending channel around $3240 to peak at $3549. I sold puts twice to get synthetically long which was nicely profitable. Today, see if it clears $3482 or gets rejected. That will tell us a lot about sentiment in tech. It’s holding up better than most names, so I’ll try to get long again if the market holds in. RBLX was a nice trade for us last week. I bought it around $84 and it hit $90+. I still have some on. Now it needs to hold the $85.30 area. Positions Disclosure as of 9/13/2021 at 8:05 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Tech Watch
SPX futures are flattish. We’re getting a slow start to the week after the weaker-than-expected jobs data from Friday. The consensus is that the Taper will start December and might be a reduction of $10B instead of $15B. The 9/22 Fed Dot plots will be important. September is historically a volatile month, but we can’t get too bearish if 4513 holds. So remember that level. If the rally wants to continue, 4545 is pivot resistance.Now let’s dig into some key tech names. SOXL did a Red Dog Reversal around the $38.58 pivot and stayed special all the way to $49. Last week it digested above $45 to keep its commitment. Some are in vs. that spot.NVDA led the semis since announcing a stock split. Earnings got it going again through the $209 area. It hit $230.42 before consolidating above $221. On Friday, it turned up and now we’ll see if it tries to clear that high for another move. Be careful adding on strength.AMD keeps giving us new setups. Friday got me back long vs. $108.50. I’ll see if it can get and stay over $111.17 to possibly add. SNAP started acting better as I re-entered. It’s still a bit sloppy so you need to take care with size. I’d like to see it hold the $71.50 area. Perhaps it clears $75-$77 to open the door for higher prices.PYPL has a nice bull type flag look so I got in Friday. I might add vs. $284 to go green. Then it needs to clear $293 with authority to open the door for a move back to the $310 area in time. Positions Disclosure as of 9/7/2021 at 8:05 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Talking Tech
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. We have mixed markets around the world as the taper debate continues after Friday’s hot jobs report. Pandemic numbers are still rising to keep the push/pull in place. I believe the taper starts in December, not September. Europe is flattish while has Asia small green arrows.SPX futures are -9. Bitcoin has had a fantastic run from July 20 while gold and silver have taken it on the chin. As long as SPX holds the 4408-4429 area this week, it’s hard to get too bearish. I’m putting a tighter leash on AAPL. It felt very lethargic last week. I’m still long and will see if it can hold the $145 area. Those less active might give it to $142.55ish. I still think $150 gets cleared in the weeks ahead. A close above $147 with power would help that happen, but I’m a little more cautious.AMZN isn’t really finding many buyers after an underwhelming earnings report and no stock split. It did try to fill some of the gap, but there’s been no power. The longer it stays below $3391, the bigger the chance it breaks below the $3299 area. I’ll keep an eye on it, but I need to see something different to get involved.NVDA had a choppy move back near the highs. Some are long vs. the $192 area. Now we’ll see if it can hold $202 to make an attempt to clear $207-$208.75 for another new all-time high trade. Positions Disclosure as of 8/9/2021 at 7:43 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Where Tesla Can Go
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. SPX futures are +18 and off the morning highs. It’s hard to buy strength this morning with resistance in the 4422- 4429 area. It’s hard to tell what type of August we will have, but some names might trend vs. last week’s post-earnings lows. Typically, we get new flows at the start of a quarter or month, so we’ll see if early strength builds or fades. Late last week, the market started to feel tired. The headlines are still focused on the Delta strand, infrastructure deals, and the idea of “Peak Everything.” SPY’s all-time high pivot is $441.80 and we’ll see if that gets touched again this week. I have this on as a hedge. It doesn’t feel like the market wants to run away this week. If it’s choppy and faulty, we’ll know new flows aren’t helping. Most big tech earnings are behind us. Some names acted better than others. We’ll see if QQQ can digest up here. Today, we’ll see if the early strength holds. See if it stays above $365.19. TSLA worked great for us late last week as it finally showed some leadership. I did re-enter around $654 and it gave a way to add on Friday as it went green first to hit $697. I will trim and stay with some. A close above $700 could open the door for a move to the $724 area in the sessions ahead. AAPL can be an interesting swing long for August if it can hold the $142.55 area. I’ll stay with it. If it can get and stay above $146.30ish, perhaps it opens the door for a retest of the $150 area. TWTR has a nice setup here if the market wants a leader. I’m long vs. the $67.50 area. it will need a strong move and close above $71.20 to put it in motion to clear $73. Positions Disclosure as of 8/2/2021 at 8:07 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: A BIG Earnings Week
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. SPX futures are -17 after a big rally to a new high of 4412 Friday. It’s a big earnings week. We’ll see if 4370-4381 acts as support today now that things are extended. NFLX reported last Tuesday and underwhelmed. Most big names hit this week: TSLA reports today after the close, AAPL, MSFT and GOOGL report tomorrow, FB is Wednesday, and AMZN is Thursday.TSLA reports earnings after the close today. I’m not taking an options strategy into it. If it’s a super solid report, it will need to get and stay above the $693-$700 area to open the door for higher prices. For now, see it holds $648ish. AAPL has been acting special since it reclaimed the moving averages in the $127.50 area. There have been so many ways to create cash flow. Last week my strategy was to get long in the $144 area. It reports Tuesday. I’m in some stock and will look to add more. I also bought $150 calls. MSFT has been above the 8/21 day since May, providing leadership. Last week it made a new high before many other names, hitting $289.99. I’d trim into strength because it feels like strong numbers are already priced in. GOOGL has been riding the 8/21 day higher for months as dip buyers keep getting rewarded. On Friday, it hit a high of $2667. It’s up this morning and I’d be looking to trim. FB moved in sympathy with TWTR and SNAP. It reports Wednesday. A little digestion above $358 keeps it constructive. $375 is Friday’s high to watch. AMZN has been a grand slam and my macro call spread has been VERY profitable. I’m still in about a third of it which I will likely hold into earnings on Thursday. I might add another option strategy to get more exposure. Last week it cleared $3592 to hit $3666 Friday. The all-time high pivot is $3773. There is no real setup today, but it’s showing relative strength. Positions Disclosure as of 7/26/2021 at 7:51 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Watch These ETF’s Closely
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. We have mostly red arrows around the world on worries over pandemics and central banks. Europe and Asia are both broadly lower to start the week.A double Red Dog Reversal into the SPX 4386 area while internals weakened and small caps headed lower is why I preached reducing risk. I went from 25+ equity longs a few weeks back to around 10 early last week to net short by Tuesday. That helped me navigate the tape and minimize the pain. SPY’s gave us ways to make money short last week as it played downside catch-up. Friday, it opened above $435 and failed with a close below Thursday’s low to keep some short coming into today. $427 is pivot support to keep in mind but $425ish is a more important area. QQQ/Tech was the last sector to get faulty. The question is does it play downside catch-up? Or does it find a low today to lead the market off the lows? Watch the 21 day around $354, and see if it reclaims Friday’s $357.24 low. I’d also watch key names like AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA for clues on the action. IWM broke the $224 area as the wedge resolved lower. On Friday, it hit a low of $214.47. I’d cover some and see if there’s a tactical buy vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $211 is some support and then $207.50ish is the major. If this channel breaks and stays below, it can tell us this correction will last. Bank earnings were sold last week. Now we’ll see if XLF can reclaim $36.10 or not. $35.51 is support. A break and close below could mean more trouble ahead. Positions Disclosure as of 7/19/2021 at 8:02 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: AMZN, AMC, Bitcoin
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. We have mixed markets around the world after last week’s bout of volatility. Last Thursday, the bears had their chance to steal control but had no power. SPX held the 21 day and leaders gave a way to buy in the hole. This weekend, there was more talk of a Global Minimum Tax, but nothing really surprising. SPX needs to hold the 4030-4040 area to keep upper momentum. The all-time high pivot is now 4371. I’m still in a Portfolio Approach, but with fewer names on because the action got a lot more stock-specific. AMZN was a grand slam for our community and I hope you participated. We had the big breakout from $3471 to $3759. I still have 2/3 of my macro call spread, which went from $15 to $70+. I am also short some puts for Friday to generate more P&L. If it can digest above $3694 and create a new flag, I may buy for a move through $3759. Earnings aren’t until July 29. AMC gave signals to get us out around $59. Some are still trading it tactically after it gave a trade Thursday to $49+. It’s down a bit this morning. See if it tries to reclaim the $45.82 pivot for a trade. See if the Black Widow box office numbers help. Two weeks ago, we all focused on Bitcoin at $30,000. It reclaimed that level and it hit $36,500 to trim some. It’s hard to tell if this lower level channel holds. I put on a little but more exposure to go from 80% to 70% cash in my crypto account. If it gets and stays below $32,000, I will most likely hit the brakes. I’m not giving this much room. Positions Disclosure as of 7/12/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: AMZN, AMD, AMC
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. We have mixed and quiet markets to start the holiday-shortened week. There’s lots of talk about how OPEC didn’t make a deal. If oil sees $80+, I’d rather sell it than buy it.The Fed minutes are on Wednesday and will probably reinforce the taper talk. Each week there’s a different feel. Last week it felt more narrow with megacap tech leading the way. The SPX hit a high of 4352 and could be ripe for a few days of consolidation. AMZN’s active sequence started on June 7 with a Red Dog Reversal long signal. I put on a $3700-$3900 macro August call spread when the 8/2 1 day got reclaimed around $3250. It’s had a nice move since then. I also bougt some shares as it cleared $3471 to hit a high of $3511. I might get more aggressive if it can get above $3524. Then a close above $3554 on huge volume can open the door for a range break. It’s hard to tell if it will be this week or closer to earnings. So it’s tricky. AMD was a great buy in the $81 area as it reclaimed all the moving averages for a big swing long. Last week it held $91 and hit $95+. It does look like it’s on the way to new all-time highs. Last week AMC failed to clear $59 and hit a low of $47.80 on Friday. It’s up on some numbers and talk they won’t increase share size. $56 will be big resistance. Positions Disclosure as of 7/6/2021 at 7:59 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Big Tech Watch
Welcome to Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes, which gives you a selection of insights from Scott’s Redler Report newsletter. SPX futures are flattish. A day or two of digestion would be good with active support at 4271, then 4257. Pivot resistance is 4286. The second quarter ends Wednesday, so there might be some markups and markdowns. Know what you’re in and why as our Portfolio Approach has worked GREAT since the May double bottom. QQQ broke above the wedge pattern to hit $351.46. We navigated it very well. Now we’ll see if $348.85 holds to make it easier to massage our Portfolio Approach. FB: I sold as it hit $344.90+ from my buy in the $330 area. I’ll see if it holds the $340 area for potentially another opportunity through $344.90 in a session or so. TSLA: I caught a big move from $615 as it cleared $631 to hit a high of $697. Some news of a software recall brought it in a bit with a low of $667.61. Maybe there’s a dip to buy vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. I’m short puts, and will look to buy the stock with a signal. BABA calls were a great pickup for $2.50 last week when the stock was around $209. I sold half the options for around $7+ and held the rest as it hit a high of $230.25. I’ll trim a bit more. Now, we’ll see if it holds $225ish to set up and go again Want updates on names like these plus 30+ more? Scroll down… Positions Disclosure as of 6/28/2021 at 8:48 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: 10 Trading Rules I’ll Teach My Son
The son becomes the father, and the father the son. -Jor-El, father of Superman Last year, I had back surgery to correct a sequestered spinal disc. That pretty much meant the end of my competitive racing career. But as one Redler falls… another rises. I’m winding down. And my son Chace is winding up. On Monday, he ran the 38th annual President’s Cup 5K Run in Millburn, NJ in 20:15.28. Here’s a picture of us after the finish. I ran the race alongside him… until he passed me by. Chace broke the record for 8-year olds for this particular race. And he may have posted one of the top-3 5K finishes EVER by an 8-year old. (official records are a little spotty) I think running and competing can take him far in life. And I’m not just talking about college scholarships. He’s learning the value of discipline and hard work early. But maybe one day he’ll leave running behind. Maybe he’ll follow his old man into another competitive, testosterone-filled career… trading. If he made that choice, I’d drag him into the garage, lock the door, and not let him out until he understands these 10 trading rules: 10) Trading Is a Business People think trading is like hitting the craps table at Ceasars Palace. But it’s a business just like any other. You have to balance your books every month, make it through slowdowns, and most of all, not put yourself at risk of bankruptcy. The average guy on the street thinks trading is really exciting. You lose $10 million one day, and make $20 million the next. NOTHING could be further from the truth. Every successful trader knows that… 9) Trading Should Be Boring Thrill-seekers always fail. Always. Here’s a pretty common scenario: A trader starts his career, and BAM! He has a huge day. Let’s call it $50K. I gotta tell you, $50K all at once can ruin a trader’s life. They start thinking that big money comes easily. They start thinking about making $100K a day… or $200K a day. So they keep taking more and more risk… until they run into a day like the August 24, 2015 flash crash. 5 minutes after the open, the margin clerk’s demanding more cash. The trader doesn’t have the money to put up, so their positions get closed out, right at the bottom. So they’re put out of business just before the rebound. I’ve seen it happen again and again. So if you’re just getting started, I recommend that you… 8) Focus on Execution First, Money Second If you get good at anything, the money’s going to come eventually. So focus on developing your skills, and properly executing the strategies you learn. That’s what’s going to keep you in the game for the long run. Fast money leaves just as fast at arrived. Your #1 goal should be to develop a set of trading strategies that can give you consistent profits, no matter what’s happening in the market. Once your brain gets big, your wallet follows. But let’s not forget about your heart, because… 7) Your Temper Can Kill You Self-control is more important than brainpower. You can have all the intelligence in the world, but if you can’t stay calm when you’re losing money, you’re toast. You need the self-awareness to know when you’re at risk of letting emotions dictate your decision-making process. I just read an article in the Wall Street Journal about a banker that used basketball to judge job candidates: Some employers confessed to weeding out applicants in the gym. John Osbon said when he was a Wall Street managing director he played basketball with job candidates. He would step on their feet or yank their shirt in games, he said, to see how they reacted. If they kept their cool, they passed the test. “They were all fair fouls, and I didn’t hurt anyone,” Mr. Osbon said. “You have to take someone down to size.” Sounds like a pretty effective way to judge a trader’s ability to take pressure! How easily do you keep your cool? And what can you do to work on being even-tempered? But we all know we can’t keep our emotions perfectly on check. So I recommend that you… 6) Use Reverse Psychology on Yourself We’re only human, and we can never perfectly manage our emotions. I’ve been doing this for 18 years, and I still get too excited sometimes. And when I feel that coming on, I know my ego is getting the best of me. So I force myself to trade more cautiously, because I’ve put myself in the danger zone. And when I start every trading day, I try to… 5) Be Naturally Neutral I don’t expect too much at the start of a trading day. And I don’t expect too little. Every day is different, and if I’m in a neutral mood, I’m ready for whatever opportunities present themselves. If you start your day dreaming of piles of cash, or worrying that you’ll go up in smoke, you’re doomed. Now, once you’re out there, not every trade will go your way. You’re going to lose money. But that’s okay, because… 4) Great Traders Are Losers Every trader out there loses money. I lose money all the time. Some of the richest traders I’ve met lose money every single day. But the reason I’m still in the game after 18 years is that I don’t lose big. Say I’m long AAPL from $150, and I get stopped out at $148. I’m not gonna celebrate, but I’m not gonna cry either. You know why? Because small losses won’t knock me out of the game. Now if I rode AAPL down to $130, that’s another story. If you dig a deep enough hole, you may need 10 winners to make up for 1 loser! Understanding this can help you… 3) Start Thinking Like a Pro Like I said, brainpower isn’t everything. You can have a 180 IQ, but you’ve got to adopt the mindset of a pro. Pros don’t think about Ferraris
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