Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: ETF Action
SPX futures are flattish but off the highs after the worst April since 2008. Some sectors made new 2022 lows and a few key names are at multi-year lows. We’ve been Tactical since April 5. This open isn’t very interesting with the Oscillator at -42. We’ll see if there’s a real bounce ahead of the Fed. Resistance is the 4162-4270 area. The longer we stay below that, the higher the probability we see the 3850-4000 region.ARKK has made lower highs and lower lows for almost a year and a half. My moving average rules should have helped you stay out of the way. When something is below the 8/21 day, you can’t hold onto it. Last week’s low was $45.89. Use that for active action today. XBI is weak but sometimes gives trades. It broke $80 to make a new low of $72.59 last week. Use that pivot for active action. XLE lost special status last when it broke the $79 area on April 21. Last Monday, it made a low of $71 and had a decent bounce. I’d stay tactical here. This sector needs time to re-build. Banks haven’t been a place to hide all year. XLF is broken like most sectors. Use last week’s low of $34.45 for tactical action.Positions Disclosure as of 5/2/2022 at 8:52 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Bearish Semis and Crypto
SPX broke 4370 Friday and closed on the lows. We’ll see if we test the March lows this week. The SPX is getting downside follow-through with futures down 40 handles. Can it hold the bottom of the range that starts around 4160? That’s the question. The low of the year is 4111.NVDA’s sell signals preceded major weakness in tech. $278 was key. Then it broke macro support at $206-$210 which was bad. Maybe we’ll get a cute oversold bounce vs. a 5-15-30 low. $195 is Friday’s low. AMD’s March 30 sell signal was a sign to take risk down. It’s been weaker than the market since then. It hit $87.94 Friday. It’s a bit oversold. Maybe there is a cute Red Dog Reversal long for active cash flow today. Bitcoin has been in a big bear market since the sell signal on November 14. There have been tactical trades but no real traction. $32K-$37K is a big macro area. We’ll see if that holds, or if they really increase volatility in the weeks ahead. This gives clues on tech so watch it. Ethereum went from $2700 up to $3500+ and then the upper flag broke around $3400. It’s back below the moving averages. I’m glad I Tweeted that I got smaller into that $3500+ area. I’d stay small. Also, if you’re in alt coins, know that some will just never come back. Don’t have a false sense of security. But I will accumulate CRO, SOL, MVDG, GALA, and WAXP in the weeks ahead.Positions Disclosure as of 4/25/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: FAANG Under Pressure
SPX futures are -15 but off the overnight lows. See if it reclaims 4381 to relieve pressure or if sellers push down towards the 4335 area. Strength has been sold since the Red Dog Reversal at 4593 on April 5.TSLA lost super special status on the Red Dog Reversal at $1150. Then it failed to hold the $1115 area. It made a low of $973 last week which is our new point of reference. It reports Wednesday. It’s up $10 on news the Shanghai Factory is back online. But it’s below the $1012-$1026 resistance area. It’s not a great setup. If it goes red it would be bad for the sentiment. $973 will be key. AMZN is tricky after it gave us a nice move from $2940 to $3400+. Then it lost special status like most tech names. Now it needs to hold $2992 support. Otherwise, it can be pressured more. It reports April 28. AAPL went red fast on Thursday, giving some clues to take risk down. It closed on the lows of the day. It’s below all the moving averages and just a tactical trade. Maybe it goes red to green if it can reclaim $165.05. I’d take trades though. It reports April 28.Positions Disclosure as of 4/18/2022 at 8:38 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Losing Special Status
SPX futures are -20 to kick off the week. Last Tuesday, the market shifted again and I took risk down. We had a bearish engulfing candle around the SPX 4583 pivot with tech leading the downside. Now we’ll see if the 4450 area holds, or if there is more weakness. Banks earnings start with JPM on Wednesday. Metals are getting some upside follow-through as oil tests important intermediate support.TSLA lost super special status Last Tuesday with the Red Dog Reversal sell around the $1150 pivot. It confirmed that by failing to hold $1115. It closed below the 8 day Friday. This morning it looks below the 21 day but above the 50 day. I’ll see if there’s an opportunity vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $950-$964 is a compelling support spot. AMZN went from super special to vulnerable. It failed to hold $3310 and broke $3244 and couldn’t reclaim them. It also lost the 8/21 day fast with a low Friday at $3085. It’s worth a look into the $2993-$3042 area this morning or vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. AAPL took a week off from its special status. Today we’ll see if there are tactical opportunities to buy around the 50 day ($168.50). A hard break below would be bad for tech. I’ll watch it closely. MSFT lost the 8/21 day like most of tech. Maybe there’s a tactical bounce near the $289 support pivot.Positions Disclosure as of 4/11/2022 at 8:45 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Thank You, Elon!
SPX futures are +4. Friday gave us the 4507 pivot to trade against after hitting a high of 4637. We’ve had a nice active sequence since SPX reclaimed the 8/21 day around 4335 on 3/15. We’ll see if we can rebuild some new patterns to stay constructive as we head towards earnings season.TWTR is up 22% on Elon Musk taking a stake in the company. Some members of the community flagged unusual options activity, so I got in calls. Thanks Elon! You made my day! MSFT has had lots of tradable patterns as it cleared $305.50 to see $315+. It hit a low of $305.54 before bouncing. It looks above $310 this morning. See if it holds above that. FB hit a high of $231 and pulled back a bit. It needs to hold the $222 area to stay constructive. If it can get and stay above $227.50, perhaps it opens the door for more upside. GOOGL had a big move to $2871. Many got stopped out when it broke $2840. On Friday, some bought with a Red Dog Reversal buy through $2781. Now see if it can get and stay above $2809.Positions Disclosure as of 4/4/2022 at 9:02 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Market Moves in Banks and ETFs
Last Friday, the SPX hit 4546. Moves like that are why we focus on price and patterns instead of opinions. SPX futures are flattish and we’ll see if we can hold above 4455-4500 to keep this active sequence intact to continue towards 4600.Small caps are trying to keep this active sequence intact. If IWM can hold $203.75, it stays constructive to clear $207.44 for a move up to the $212 area. ARRK gave a nice bounce off drastic oversold levels. It hit a high of $68+ where many sold. As long as this holds $62-$64, some will stay for a move towards the $78 area. The banks have been impressive and working higher. XLF needs to hold the $38ish level, though you still need the right entries and exits. XLE is still leading. It woke up Friday again after holding the 8 day. I’d keep buying dips if that continues. Now we can give it to the $76.50 area.Positions Disclosure as of 3/28/2022 at 8:30 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Big Week for FAANG
SPX futures are flattish. A little digestive action above 4400-4420 would be impressive and constructive. If it gets and stays above 4465, there’s really no resistance up to 4600 so take care if you’re extra hedged.TSLA had an awesome week. I bought some Tuesday below $800 and traders added above the $842 downtrend line. I sold mine Friday as it hit $907. I was hoping for a pullback to buy. It’s up again this morning. I’d think $935-$940 will be resistance if it sees it today. I’d be careful buying now. AMZN gave us a really big week. I had a nice call spread, sold puts, and held the stock. I sold stock Friday when it hit $3231. I’d like a dip to buy, might not get it. I sold a little premium higher for this Friday. $3350 should be a big resistance level above. AAPL reclaimed $152 and the 200 day fast and participated in the action last week. I got caught a little short Friday for the imbalance which didn’t work. I’ll adjust today for that. $164.48 is pivot resistance. MSFT didn’t lead last week but it participated. Now see if it plays some catch-up. It has room to the $304 area if it wants it.Positions Disclosure as of 3/21/2022 at 8:43 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Managing Big Metal Moves
SPX futures are +17 after closing on the lows Friday as the misdirection continues. We have the Fed Wednesday. We’re trying to figure out if SPX 4111-4222 holds and if oil put in its highs of the year. SPX pivot resistance is 4250, then 4299. The longer we stay below that, the more control the active bears can have. Tech still feels challenged. I’d watch 2022 lows in key names for clues.GLD had a big move from $170 to $193+ and it is digesting. My $174/$177 call spread expired this Friday,. You can manage it and lose a little premium, or try and max it. Now see if GLD holds the $183 area. Otherwise it can see the 21 day near $180 so be careful. SLV hit a high of $24.90 early this week. I’d think the 21 day near $22.90 holds. I managed some of my $22/$23.50 spread. Some might sell higher calls against spreads. The China issues might drag down semis. See if AMD stays below $103 or reclaims it. $99.35 is the 2022 low. Make sure to have a plan. NVDA remains trapped in its downtrend line. There are only small tactical things to do since it got rejected into the $232 area. Now see how it handles the $218 area. If it gets and stays below that, watch the 2022 lows.Positions Disclosure as of 3/14/2022 at 8:55 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Metals and Semi Strategies
SPX futures are -37. The 4220 area is big support. If 4279 is reclaimed, maybe it relieves some pressure. We’ve lifted off the lows a bit as headline about negotiations come in.AMD still doesn’t act special because it’s just a tactical trade here and there depending on the day. See how it handles $106.80 today if tech gets a lift. NVDA remains trapped in a downtrend like most tech names. It’s just a tactical trade based on the day. Friday’s low to use is $224.82. GLD is still working higher. I put on a macro strategy in January to benefit from higher prices. It’s been my biggest swing long. It’s up again this morning after clearing $181.30 Friday. I’d trim some if I was in more than Tier #2. SLV is trending higher. My call spread is almost maxed out. My expiration is 3/18 and I need it to stay over $23.50. I’d trim some if I was in more than Tier #2.Positions Disclosure as of 3/7/2022 at 8:56 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Crypto Capitulation
SPX futures are -60 handles after a big 6.5% move from Thursday’s lows. Friday gave nice follow-through to that. Now we’ll see if the 4287 area holds to give some commitment. We have the Fed later this week and a jobs report that will be turned in after the Belarus meeting.Bitcoin: some accumulated into that 1/20-1/21 capitulation decline with me. Others waited for the Feb 3 buy signal when it cleared the downtrend line and cleared the $39K area. It hit $45K. I trimmed a lot, and held some of my alt coins which were up 30%-90%+ in that bounce. But i went back to 50% cash. I’ve traded it a bit since then and it made a higher low at $34k. It acts decent amid the volatility. It would be nice if the double bottom builds to something bigger. Ethereum: some accumulated on the 1/20-1/21 capitulation when it hit a low of $2159. On Feb 3, it broke above the downtrend line to reclaim the 8/21 day. It hit a high of $3250+ where I reduced. I did trade around it. It looks like it made a double bottom last week but we will need time to confirm that.Positions Disclosure as of 2/28/2022 at 8:59 a.m. ET
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