Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
5 Big Earnings Reports You need to Watch
SPX futures are +20 because there’s some optimism around China’s launch of a $44B real estate fund to help work through the Debt crunch. In Europe, the resumption of the Nord Stream gas flows is a small positive. After a 10%ish move off the lows, some are asking if SPX 4000 was the high of this bear market bounce? SPX holding the 50 day of 3900ish will keep some active bulls optimistic that we can see 4073 or the 200 day above. Now let’s dig into this week’s big earnings names: GOOGL reports Tuesday and SNAP’s Numbers have many concerned here. It’s lagged this past month. It usually leads. $101-$106.50 is key support. Tuesday’s earnings reaction will be important. MSFT lagged and underperformed this recent bounce with some erratic action. On Friday it hit $265ish and was sold. I wouldn’t chase this up move but I’d watch it. Earnings are Tuesday. META also got hit on SNAP’s results. This stock has been in a bear trend for most of the year. The question is whether it will bounce like NFLX or get hit like SNAP. $154-$159 is a key support area. Earnings are Wednesday. It’s up 80 cents this morning. See if it holds or fades. $168.41 is Friday’s low. AMZN had a nice weekly move to see a high of $125.50 Friday into some key resistance. Earnings aren’t until Thursday. We’ll see where it is then. Expectations have been brought down but it’s 20% off the recent lows. See if early strength holds or fades. Friday’s low is $121.35. AAPL led this tape and expectations are high heading into earnings Thursday. On Friday, It hit $156+ before pulling back a little. See if early strength holds or fades today. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Elon Musk Dumped Twitter. Should You Buy?
We have mostly red arrows to start the week on negative pandemic news out of China. Macau is shutting down many businesses including casinos. The Shanghai is -1.2% with the Hang Seng -2.7%. SPX futures are -24 and we’ll see if there’s any commitment to last week’s rally as we wait for Wednesday’s CPI and then bank earnings at the end of the week. Now let’s dig into some big social media and tech names: TWTR: I’m glad I got out at $52+ when the deal was announced. I haven’t played it since then. It would be cute if it opened lower and went green. $35ish is a spot to watch. If I played it, I’d use a 5-15-30 minute low to trade against. Be very careful. SNAP was a decent tactical buy last week. I still have some left. It needs to hold $14ish. We’ll see how it responds to the Elon Musk news. TSLA: some think it should have been up more on the TWTR news. We’ll see what happens for sentiment today. See if it stays green or if sellers get more comfortable. $723 is key support. A move above $764 opens the door for higher prices META was cut to underperform by Needham. If it can’t reclaim the $167 area, it can roll back over. This has been a problem stock all year. AMZN participated last week and seems to be getting tighter. If it can hold $113ish, it looks like it can clear $117. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->5 Big Tech Names I’m Watching
We’ll see if we retest or break the SPX 3619 low. And if it breaks, what’s the next level below? Those are questions I’m asking. We will go day by day, week by week, and month by month to find opportunities on all time frames. The euro is making new 20-year lows vs. the US dollar, which is pressuring Europe and the overall tape. We’ll see if SPX can hold 3738 and go green. We’ll also see if energy names hold in, or if they topped with oil. The FOMC minutes are Wednesday and the jobs numbers hit Friday. Now let’s dig into 5 big tech names I’m watching: AAPL isn’t special but it’s been decent to trade the past two weeks. Foxconn came out with some positive statements. Maybe AAPL worlds today. It needs to hold $135.60. If it gets and stays below that, it will hurt sentiment and will give clues of more downside. TSLA will be important today. The deliveries weren’t worse than expected, but also weren’t great. The stock hasn’t been special since April. See if it holds the $667 area and goes green, or if it gets sold. Clearing $690 will help tech. AMZN is a concern with all the retail problems. It went green first Friday. Maybe it goes today vs. $105.85. If it can’t hold that, then $101 is the hey macro spot into earnings season in a few weeks. GOOGL splits July 15. It broke $2303 to stop some out. See if it can hold the $2132 pivot. Otherwise the door opens the door for lower prices and negates the right shoulder. META led the market lower this year. Last week Zuckerberg said things were slowing down faster than he ever saw. On Friday, it didn’t make a lower low so we’ll see how it handles $154-$155 for clues on sentiment. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->4 ETF’s I’m Watching Right Now
We have mostly green arrows around the world to extend last week’s gains. There’s not much out of the G7. China declared victory on the pandemic as the region keeps outperforming. There could be a ceasefire in Ukraine as Russia takes more territory. SPX futures are +16 giving upside follow-through to last week’s strength. The Oscillator is probably +60, making new buys tricky. But maybe the markets want to test the 50 day above into quarter-end. Big resistance is in the 3974-4020 area. Now let’s dig into some of the ETF’s I’m watching right now: Tech led last week, giving clues we can have an oversold bounce with some power. The QQQ’s filled one gap and are already near the second. Friday’s high is $295.04. We’ll see if it wants to fill the second gap above at $299. XBI was a great vehicle last week as it finally showed relative strength and hit a high of $77.65. I sold mine Friday, but I’m looking to buy it back. We’ll see what type of digestion we get here. ARKK didn’t lead the markets to new lows the week of June 14, which signaled it could outperform. It hit high of $45.98 Friday. With a little digestion, this can see $54ish if this market rallies into quarter-end. XLE gave ways to sell as it lost special status. There was the break below $91.71 and then it lost the 8/21 day. Then there was a correction to the 200 day with a low of $69.47 last week. If it tries to bounce, there will be resistance in the $74-$77 area. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Watch the 2022 Lows – They Are Everything
SPX futures are -90 handles. On Thursday, the index broke 4073 which meant risk-off and time to get short. Friday gave downside follow-through with a low of 3900. We’ll see if the 2022 low of 3810 tries to hold at first kiss into the Fed Wednesday. This is Day #3 down and the oscillator will be at -60 so it’s hard to press shorts in the morning. For tactical buys, I’d use 5-15-30 minute lows with signals. I’ll focus on SPY, QQQ, AAPL, AMD, and TSLA. I’m glad we’ve prioritized cash and taken risk down this year. We’ll stay prepared and try and net money short-term. Longer-term, there will be other opportunities. TSLA lost special status months ago. Last week it did a Red Dog Reversal sell around the $749 pivot and hit a low of $683 Friday. It announced a 3 for 1 stock split. That wasn’t new news though. I kept some from buying it Friday. We’ll see if it shows some relative strength for a cash flow long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $655 is support. The 2022 low is $620.57 and is very important. There might be an opportunity there but chances are the stock goes lower this summer. AMZN gave many a 25% move off the lows heading into the split. Then it gave a sell signal when it broke above $125.61 and failed. Some got short as it lost the $120.63 area. I’d cover some this morning. We’ll see how it handles the $101.26 2022 low. I’ve avoided it the past few days. I will look for a signal today. AMD got us out around $102 when it showed it’s not special in a weak market. See how it handles the $89 area, or if there’s a trade vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. META broke $194 with force to get some out of leftover longs and other short. I’ve avoided it. $169 is the 2022 low of the year to watch today. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: FAANG Friday
SPX futures are +45. Elon Musk walked back his statements from Friday, and Lloyd Blankfein said to not be too pessimistic. Even with a lot of complicated news, the SPX digested pretty well above the 8/21 day to stay committed to this bear market rally. Now we’ll see if it builds and gives another move to 4250-4300 in the week ahead. 4176 is last week’s high. As long as we hold 4073, we can’t bet too bearish. TSLA: Elon Musk is walking back Friday’s statements about cutting the workforce. The stock isn’t special and it’s been hard to trust lately. We’ll see if early strength gets faded. The resistance area is $731-$743. AAPL: Morgan Stanley’s Katie Huberty was cautious Friday and it showed some relative weakness. Today, see if the $147-$148 area gets rejected. WWDC kicks off today at 1:00. AMZN: call spreads did great into the split. I made ~200% on the one that expired Friday. It’s up this morning. Some are long vs. $120. Others are waiting for a push and close above $125.61 that might lead to a gap fill. Watch it for sentiment. FB was volatile last week on Sheryl Sandberg leaving. But it didn’t fall apart. See if the rally holds. It’s getting tighter. Scott’s Positions Disclosure:
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Top Gun Trading
SPX futures -20 and I think a little digestion would be constructive. If this market is any good, it will stay above 4030. To keep momentum, it has to hold 4075-4090 in the next few days. I participated long here as SPY reclaimed $390 and cleared $395 last week. I put on a hedge on Friday that got a little painful on that strong close. I got converted short from my calls, so this down open is helping me. I already covered a bunch of SPY at $412.50ish. If this market wants to go higher in the week or so ahead, it will hold $404-$408 in the days ahead.AMC: I bought last Wednesday because I predicted Top Gun would be huge. And it was! I bought the stock around $11.88 plus some options. AMC is up another 9% and I’ll trim. $18ish is the next level to watch. $18ish is the next big level. MBIO is a long-term name, not a trade. It’s been tough but has good news and it’s building. Maybe if XBI gets better, this will also act better. CVX is a strong stock in the energy sector. I bought some last Monday and I added as it cleared $173.50. It’s at $180 this morning. I will probably sell my stock and keep my last third of calls. SLB: I bought Tuesday for a break above the $44 pivot. It hit $48.41 and I sold mine. It’s a bit extended here. Trim some if you’re long.Positions Disclosure as of 5/31/2022 at 9:06 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Tech Sector Lows
SPX futures are +33, giving some upside follow-through to Friday’s reversal. We’ll see if it holds or fades. 3945-3970 is some resistance. See if tech holds or fades after many leaders broke hard last week.TSLA changed character on April 21 after earnings. The strong report got sold. Then the $973 break confirmed the new active bearish sequence. TSLA also lagged the bounce. On Friday, I made money short. It broke $700 to see $633 before a weak bounce with the indices. I did buy some $620 puts into the end-of-day bounce. TSLA isn’t up much considering the futures strength. I’ll be watching this carefully. AAPL helped lead the indices to the lows last week. We did well short here. I covered on Friday. I’m not sure how it will respond to market strength. Resistance is now in the $140.78-$141.60 area. AMD is very choppy and just gives two-way action based on the futures. It didn’t make a new low Friday but it hit the $88 area. It’s red while futures are up. See how it reacts today. I’m not in a rush to do anything here. NVDA is also red. But it hasn’t been special for months and has been trending lower. $155-$157 is the recent low area heading into Wednesday’s earnings.Positions Disclosure as of 5/23/2022 at 8:55 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: RDR in FAANG
SPX made a low of 3858 Thursday. To see 4120-4157, it needs to prove it can hold 3963 for a session or so. SPX futures are down 15 but well off the overnight lows. We had chances to switch gears Thursday when my 3850 target was reached. The Oscillator was -75 and it’s now -20. We’ll see if this bear market bounce goes for a week or so. SPY needs to hold $395ish to stay in the game to clear $403 and see $410-$414.TSLA did a Red Dog Reversal around the $700 pivot after six down sessions. It hit a high of $787 Friday. This morning it’s flattish. It might participate in a market bounce but it doesn’t feel like a huge rally is coming. If it can hold $751ish, maybe it can see $845. FB was a nice focus for us Thursday into Friday as it did a Red Dog Reversal to get me long. I sold Friday afternoon as it hit $199.87. I’m looking to buy for a red to green trade. It might even try and clear Friday’s high. AMZN has been one of the weakest F.A.N.G. -type names for a while now. The gap down from earnings never got filled, and it’s been last to rally on all oversold attempts. It got interesting Thursday when it bounced off of $2049. I sold three sets of puts into the weakness to get synthetically long. Buying calls would have been better. It hit $2263. Now we’ll see if it can hold $2156ish to show commitment.Positions Disclosure as of 5/16/2022 at 8:48 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Why I Bet Against Apple and Microsoft
SPX futures are -65, giving big downside follow-through to the recent technical damage. We’ll see if SPX stay belows the 4060ish area, or if it gets reclaimed. I positioned for a down open with SPY, MSFT, and AAPL puts since I’ve been concerned about a capitulation move towards 3850.Tech has led us lower for most of 2022. See if the QQQ’s can stay below $305.11 or if that gets reclaimed to relieve some pressure. Watch key leading stocks like AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, and AMD for clues on the action. LastAAPL will be interesting. Last Thursday I bought $150 puts in case it plays downside catch-up. I’ll trim some and hold some. See if it stays below $153-$154 to keep pressure on. If it stays weak $150 is below.MSFT: I went out short which will help my morning. I covered some below $268. I am also long puts for Friday. We’ll see if it stays below $270 or reclaims it to relieve some pressure. (Editor’s Note: Scott covered the rest of his MSFT short at 9:28 a.m. this morning. He also sold some of his AAPL puts after the open) AMZN’s upper channel resolved lower well before the earnings report. Now the comps are bad, growth has decelerated, and they waited too long to announce the split. If the SPX sees the 3850 area in the weeks ahead, it could hit $2050, where I’d revisit options. It’s been weaker than most F.A.N.G.-type names over the past few weeks. See if it reclaims $2261. If we stay under pressure all day, I might sell some lower strike puts for a trade. ARKK has been in an accelerated downtrend since the $159 top. It then tried to form a channel but broke it around $113. It’s been below the 8/21 day since then with many bear flag continuation patterns. The recent low is $43.99. See if it stays below that or reclaims it for tactical action. The $35 area may be a good spot for long-term money.Positions Disclosure as of 5/9/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET
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