Pro Trader Discusses the Importance of Market Seasonality
Pro Trader Derrick Oldensmith spent many years of his career not believing in seasonality. He explains why he’s changed his thesis after learning more about market dynamics: Derrick goes over: What influences seasonality in the market Why we are coming up on a seasonally strong season for the market What he could see happening at the end of March into April Derrick’s positions as of 1:14pm ET March 5, 2026 Derrick Oldensmith is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG’), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary. T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG. Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG. It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed. Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG. All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision. The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.
Continue Reading -->My #1 Oil Play Right Now
ATTN: Sami’s next Mentorship is open! Go here to lock in your spot because they are going fast. Military action against Iran has crude oil higher. Sami Abusaad says the trend will rage on, and shares his #1 oil name. It’s not Exxon (XOM) or Chevron (CVX). Sami also goes over: How QQQ could negate its double top formation The level QQQ needs to take out Why the market is so unclear right now The reason this market looks like “a frog in a blender’ The problem with IWM’s breakout His favorite big pharma name A beaten-down software name that is about to rally And more!
Continue Reading -->Nvidia vs. Sandisk vs. Utilities?
What a week! Nvidia (NVDA) flopped after earnings, OpenAI picked up $110 billion in fresh funding, and PPI came in hot. So let’s look at the 5 things you need to know right now. 1. Nvidia = Buy on Valuation? Nvidia (NVDA) delivered another solid across-the-board beat and strong guidance on Wednesday. And for the third straight quarter, it sold off the next day. I’m long, so of course I’m aggravated. So what’s the problem? Everyone’s wondering how long the AI capex spending boom can last. Because companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Meta (META) are burning downright absurd levels of cash flow. However, there may be hope for the bulls. Nvidia’s valuation has compressed to 22 times forward earnings. That’s right around where the stock bottomed in November 2023 and April 2025. Meanwhile, Nvidia is expected to grow earnings by 73% this year. If this was 1985, Peter Lynch would be loading up for the Magellan fund. But while tech leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft (MSFT) sag, you know what’s not struggling. 2. The Electric Mystery Machine Are In Secret Bull Market Mode SPY is down in 2026, but the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) just keeps grinding up: I highlighted this secret bull market on February 13. Why are utilities booming? Rates are falling. And traders could be rotating into utilities in fear of an economic mess. Plus, AI is driving increased electricity demand. And Anthropic said it will fit the bill for infrastructure upgrades and consumers’ higher electric bills. Why didn’t you see this on financial TV? They’re talking about Nvidia. 3. SanDisk May Be Setting Up Beautifully I’m long SanDisk (SNDK). I even declared myself the Captain of Team SanDisk. Not that I’m buying it here. It’s the #1 stock in the S&P 500 this year, and right now it’s hugging the 20 day moving average: Could it be basing for a breakout? We talked about it on this week’s live stream: 4. Cybersecurity Is Less Awful Than Regular Old Software We all know software has been a mess, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) down 23% year-to-date. But cybersecurity is holding in less bad. The Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) is “only” down 10% YTD. And security leader CrowdStrike (CRWD) reports on Tuesday. This is a pivotal report. The stock recently came under pressure when Anthropic launched Claude Code Security. If CrowdStrike says AI is not a problem for them (or an opportunity), it could add some upside fuel. Interestingly, CrowdStrike describes itself as “The Agentic Security Platform. Unified and built to secure the AI revolution.” 5. The Mood Is Still Sour It’s hard to argue that investors and traders are too optimistic. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 33.2% of investors are bullish. This is below the 37.5% long-term average. And it’s well below the 49.5% reading notched on January 14. Also: the CBOE equity put-call ratio averaged 0.61 this week, which is in the neighborhood of neutral. This is all good news. Because extremes in bullish sentiment can signal complacency and mark tops. And we are nowhere close to extreme bullish sentiment. Which makes sense given how tricky this market is. Back on February 12, we asked our Twitter following if 2026 has been harder than 2025. 80% said yes. That says a lot about how frustrating this market’s endless grind is.
Continue Reading -->David Prince Reacts to Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia (NVDA) reported better than expected earnings and strong guidance on Wednesday, but the stock fell apart the day after. Inner Circle’s David Prince explains the market reaction to the print: David goes over: How the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings reaction is more about profit-taking than the report itself Whether the AI trade is dead or alive How the software space looks after Salesforce (CRM) and Snowflake (SNOW) earnings The setups he currently likes And more! Apply now for free to work with David in the Inner Circle VTF®.
Continue Reading -->Why Nvidia Is Still a Winner
ATTN: Sami’s next Mentorship is open! Go here to lock in your spot because they are going fast. Is the QQQ ready to rock? It’s too soon to say because of conflicting chart signals. But Sami likes Nvidia (NVDA) here as a longer-term play, as he explains in today’s video: Sami also goes over: Why the SPY has not yet signaled a downtrend The reason IBIT may have bottomed A hot real estate name with an awesome gap setup Why solar names are on his radar His favorite energy mame A semiconductor name setting up for a big short Why Hims (HIMS) looks like it will keep on dropping And more!
Continue Reading -->You Are Not Alone in the Twilight Zone
What a week! The Supreme Court smacked down President Trump’s tariffs, Q4 GDP flopped, and Amazon (AMZN) surpassed Walmart (WMT) as the world’s #1 company by sales. Our song of the week is Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone.” Blast it while you read this report: 1. If You’re Frustrated, You’re Not Alone Last week, we asked our community if the market felt easier or harder than usual in 2026. 67.7% said harder. So if you’re frustrated by this market, you’re not lone. Because while the major averages are stubbornly range-bound, individual stock performance is all over the place. The S&P 500 is up about 1% year-to-date, and off the highs by about 1%. But drilling below the surface tells a much more interesting story: The average stock has moved 14.4% year-to-date 342 stocks are up, with an average gain of +15.4% 161 stocks are down, with an average loss of -12.4% This implies traders and investors are having trouble with timing. Because 69% of stocks are up and the winners are up more than the losers are down. We can even see this from a sector perspective. If you look at our sector ETF tracker, you see that most ETFs are up: There has been a lot of gains in the market this year. It’s just been touch to catch them because it feels like there’s no follow-through. And if you’re stressed and in need of a fresh start in your trading, check out the Pristine Mentorship with Sami Abusaad and James Rich Young. 2. This Week Is HUGE for Tech Yes, we all know that Nvidia (NVDA) earnings hit on Wednesday. But we’re also getting reports from Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), Intuit (INTU), Autodesk (ADSK), and Dell (DELL)? That means we get insights on software (important given the IGV debacle), AI, and my favorite topics – memory and storage. I own Nvidia stock, but I’m just as interested in Dell. Because Dell spend lots of dough on hard drives and SSDs. So what they say will impact the 3 amigos of storats: SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX). They are the #1, #5, and #9 best stocks in the S&P 500 this year, posting absurd gains: BTW, I own SanDisk and plan on holding it into the Dell report because I agree with JR Romero’s take: 3. The Mood Has Soured There’s still little evidence that investors and traders are overly optimistic, which tracks with how challenging this environment has been. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 34.5% of investors are bullish. This is below the 37.5% long-term average. And it’s well below the 49.5% reading notched on January 14. Also: the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.64, which reads pretty much neutral. This is all good news. Because extremes in bullish sentiment can signal complacency and mark tops. Just remember that timing the market with sentiment data is tricky, if not impossible. 4. OIH Might Hit a Sell the News Energy has been a dominant force in 2026, thanks to geopolitical worries. And this week, President Trump gave Iran a 10-day ultimate to make nuclear deal, or “bad things happen.” The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 36% year-to-date after the “Gap of the Year” on January 5 after the US Army Delta Force plucked Nicolás Maduro out of Venezuela. OIH has crushed every other sector ETF, including the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which is up “only” 22.5%. And it could be getting overbought. So if Trump and Iran make nice, there could be a sell-the-news reaction. I own OIH and XLE and have zero plans to sell. I’m in for life. 5. Software Still Stinks Software looks like it was bottoming. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) showed about 8,000 signs it was oversold, with record volume after a huge decline. And it bounced. For three days. I thought I was smart by picking up the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG). Because that’s the “safer” side of the software arena. Nope. I’m losing money thanks to Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Akamai (AKAM), the #1 and #2 components in BUG, both whiffing on earnings this week. Why haven’t I sold yet? I wish I knew.
Continue Reading -->David Prince’s Day After Trade Strategy
The Day After Trade is a key strategy for David Prince and the Inner Circle VTF® during earnings season. He breaks down what it is and how to trade it: David goes over: The basics of the Day After Trade When to be long or short using this strategy The importance of cutting a loss quick when you’re wrong For the first time ever, David is opening up the Inner Circle VTF® for a free VIP Open House next week! Sign up here to join.
Continue Reading -->The Electric Sector That’s Skyrocketing Without You
What a week! We had a big jobs report, a light CPI number, and momentum stocks falling into quicksand. This song seems to fit: So let’s get into this week’s big stories! 1. Utilities Got Hot Consumer Staples was the surprise sexy sector last week. Utilities took the crown this week. Look at that big fat green bar on the weekly chart for the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU): Plus, on Thursday, we noticed a bizarre stat in the options market. As of about 2:30 pm, 231,546 XLU calls had traded. And just 6,129 puts traded. So we had a put-call ratio of 0.026. 38 calls for every 1 put. Crazy. So it looks like some folks were sniffing out a light CPI report. Because a light CPI (which we did get) could mean lower rates which is good for utilities. But there was another big utilities story that didn’t get much attention this week. We all know that AI is driving higher demand for electricity. But did you know that AI giant Anthropic just said it will pay the costs of upgrading electric grids to accommodate AI data centers? That looks like a surprise source of capex funding for utilities. Sounds bullish to me. And on Friday, those call buyers are smiling with XLU on the upswing. FYI – I’m long and strong XLU and VST so my money is where my mouth is. Now let’s talk about the other big sector story this week: 2. The Semis Won’t Stop The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) had impressed this week thanks to surges in leaders like: Applied Materials (AMAT) Lam Research (LRCX) KLA (KLAC) NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) We saw big earnings from AMAT and Japanese memory maker Kioxia, plus Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported impressive January sales. So even with Kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) stuck in the mud (I do own it), the AI story still has SMH up 13% YTD: I know you’re asking “but isn’t SanDisk (SNDK) really the 800-pound semiconductor gorilla right now?” Well it’s still the #1 stock in the S&P 50p this year. But it’s actually not in the SMH ETF. That said, you might want to hear what JR Romero said about the stock this week: FYI: Get JR’s training here. 3. Software Is Back Under Pressure Traders are still worried about AI nuking software in the wake of Anthropic releasing Claude Cowork. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) just hit its highest monthly volume ever. Less than halfway through the month! IGV had a solid bounce attempt into Tuesday but it crapped out fast as leaders like Microsoft (MSFT) and Palantir (PLTR) slumped. We’re even seeing names like ServiceNow (NOW) and Salesforce (CRM) trade at record low valuations. Salesforce is now trading at just 15X forward earnings: This is a tricky situation because it looks like traders are looking for any excuse to sell software stocks. Even though replacing real software (even crappy stuff) with home-grown AI alternatives is far from easy. Every person I know works with software they hate. But even if they could vibe code a replacement, they wouldn’t. Because no one wants to be responsible for the inevitable glitches. 4. There Is Not Much Fear Out There Countless momentum stocks have been rocked, and things feel shaky. But there’s not much fear out there. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.5% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months: This is in-line with the long-term 37.5% average. Meanwhile, options-related sentiment indicators like the CBOE Equity Put-Call Ratio and ISE Sentiment Index remain subdued. I like these indicators because trading options with actual dollars says more about sentiment than a survey. And neither shows an explosion in put option demand, which would be a real sign of fear. 5. It’s Been a Bad Year for Small Cap Short Squeezes Since small caps are outperforming this year, we wanted to see if short squeezes were a favor. So we used KoyFin to screen for US stocks between $500 million and $5 billion in market cap, with short interest of 15% or higher. We came up with 138 stocks, of which: 62 are up this year 76 are down The average return is -1.7% So on the whole, it hasn’t been a great year for small cap short squeezes. That said, here are the top 5: Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR): +89.5% Cable One Inc. (CABO): +37.5% Monro Inc. (MNRO): +25.0% Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP): +22.2% Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST): +21.6% P.S. Don’t forget the market is closed Monday for Presidents’ Day! Here’s next week’s calendar:
Continue Reading -->How David Prince Uses Pivot Levels
David Prince uses pivot levels in his trading daily to give himself an edge over just the moving averages. He breaks down the strategy and the importance of trading with emotional intelligence not just by charts: David goes over: When he switches to pivots instead of moving averages How to use pivots to buy a stock that’s trading above the 8-day The big mistake that pure chart traders often make This lesson was part of David’s group coaching that is offered exclusively to members of the Inner Circle VTF®. Apply to join the group now.
Continue Reading -->SanDisk: Wall Street Is Dead Wrong
JR Romero announced his new SanDisk (SNDK) price target. It’s much higher than Wall Street’s $688.16 average. JR goes over: Why today’s news from Micron (MU) is good for SanDisk The unique supply-demand dynamic at play in the memory space Why you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand this trade The technical pattern that supports his bull thesis on SanDisk The fundamental problem with Bitcoin The problems in the market that must be resolved before Bitcoin can rally
Continue Reading -->