Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Bearish Semis and Crypto


SPX broke 4370 Friday and closed on the lows. We’ll see if we test the March lows this week. The SPX is getting downside follow-through with futures down 40 handles. Can it hold the bottom of the range that starts around 4160? That’s the question. The low of the year is 4111.

NVDA’s sell signals preceded major weakness in tech. $278 was key. Then it broke macro support at $206-$210 which was bad. Maybe we’ll get a cute oversold bounce vs. a 5-15-30 low. $195 is Friday's low.

AMD’s March 30 sell signal was a sign to take risk down. It's been weaker than the market since then. It hit $87.94 Friday. It's a bit oversold. Maybe there is a cute Red Dog Reversal long for active cash flow today.

Bitcoin has been in a big bear market since the sell signal on November 14. There have been tactical trades but no real traction. $32K-$37K is a big macro area. We'll see if that holds, or if they really increase volatility in the weeks ahead. This gives clues on tech so watch it.

Ethereum went from $2700 up to $3500+ and then the upper flag broke around $3400. It's back below the moving averages. I'm glad I Tweeted that I got smaller into that $3500+ area. I'd stay small. Also, if you're in alt coins, know that some will just never come back. Don't have a false sense of security. But I will accumulate CRO, SOL, MVDG, GALA, and WAXP in the weeks ahead.

Positions Disclosure as of 4/25/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET