Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: What’s Next After the Storm?
SPX futures are +10. The Oscillator is -75. Last Friday, the index held the 4500 area again. It’s not a great setup. We’ll see if the early strength holds or fades. The 50 day is 4570 with bigger resistance at 4610ish.Now let’s dig into some of the big ETF’s I’m watching: On Friday, SPY held the $450 area again. We’ll see if today’s early strength holds, or fades. $456ish is pivot resistance and big resistance is above at the $460 area. A strong close below $450 opens the door for another leg lower. QQQ is showing some relative weakness this morning after it gave signals to take down risk the past few weeks. We’ll see if it stays below $383.34 and how it handles Friday’s low of $378.90. The 100 day is below near $374. We’ll see if it pulls SPY down or reverses higher to relieve some pressure.IWM’s breakout failure resulted in a move down to the $212 area. It’s up small this morning. The longer it stays below the $220 area, the higher the probability it breaks to the downside with $209 as the key area. That would be bad for the macro condition of the market.Semis were trying to hold up. This morning they are showing some relative weakness. If SOXL breaks and closes below the $59-$60 area, it won’t be good for tech. My XBI call options haven’t worked because this sector has been down for 20+ days. The ASH Hematology conference starts this weekend, but hasn’t been a driver. We’ll see if that changes soon.Positions Disclosure as of 12/5/2021 at 8:06 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Watching the BIG ETFs
SPX futures are +15, giving some upside-through to Friday when we cleared 4664. I want to trim into some strength so I can buy dips and keep managing the Portfolio Approach that has been great since 10/13.Now let’s dig into some of the big ETF’s I’m watching: QQQ woke up again Friday as it cleared the $392 area with lots of specific action. The QQQ’s will open above Friday’s high of $395.25. I’d trim some longs so I can buy dips and net money. The big IWM channel resolved higher. It cleared $230 to see a high of $244. And last week it held in nicely, giving us $236 to trade against. Dips are buyable as long as that holds. Today, see if it clears and holds $240. My call spread still looks good. Banks are trying to rebuild with a pretty big bull flag pattern. As long as XLF holds the $39.80 area, some might be long. Others are waiting for a strong close above $40.20. Cannabis has been great since the Friday Igniting bar. MSOS gave a way to add on the pullback into the $29 area and it’s at $33+ this morning. I will likely trim some MSOS and the calls CGC, TLRY, and VFF calls which I picked up weeks ago.Positions Disclosure as of 11/15/2021 at 8:11 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Did Cannabis Stocks Bottom?
SPX hit a high of 4718 on Friday. It’s a bit extended and might need a few days to catch its breath. Listen up for whether Powell gets the nod because that can move the market a bit. I’d think the market would like Powell instead of Brainard. We’ll see if 4681 holds, or if they shake the tree down towards the 8 day.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. TSLA was great to us from $800 all the way to $1200+ with lots of setups for cash flow. I’m short some calls from Friday so I don’t mind this down open. Elon tweeted about the possibility of him selling 10% of his stock. This morning it was as low as $1130 and it’s off that. I’ll wait for some price discovery before I trade it. The 8 day is $1152. The cannabis sector has been battered and bruised all year. Most are selling for tax losses and PM’s trying to get them off the books and MSOS has been very broken. Maybe Friday’s news changes all of that. It did go 10% on Friday so take care chasing today. But I’d think $33.80 can happen. $30ish is Resistance #1. I started to position for the January effect, so this move can help my options. I grabbed some GRWG as US Cannabis names woke up Friday. I did trim some and I’ll hold some in case this starts a new active sequence.Positions Disclosure as of 11/8/2021 at 8:11 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: The Metaverse Begins
SPX futures are +20, giving upside follow-through to Friday’s strong close. It’s been above the 8 day for 14 sessions, giving us a great Bullish active sequence to manage. I’ll stay with it as long as it continues using my tier system. And I’ll look to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. FB got a positive reaction to the Metaverse pivot. The symbol changes to $MVRS on December 1. It is still broken, but some caught a Red Dog Reversal long as it reclaimed the $309 pivot to see a high of $325.50. It’s hard to chase this open, but it might try and fill that gap above this week. TSLA was a huge winner for me and helped get me back to highs of the year. There have been multiple strategies since clearing the $805 area in early October. On Friday it cleared its flag pattern above $1094. I’m long and will trim some. I also have some calls sold higher, and I may add to those carefully.MSFT has had impressive action both pre and post-earnings. Keep managing the trade. It hit $331.05 Friday. I’d look to trim, not add this morning. It’s a little extended. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy short.GOOGL has been best in breed. Some active longs might be in vs. $2893. The recent all-time high pivot is $2973. See if it clears that for extra cash flow.AAPL absorbed the post-earnings weakness well Friday, giving us a cash flow opportunity. It’s flattish this morning. I might need some time. Let’s see if the $148.50 area holds.Positions Disclosure as of 12/1/2021 at 8:11 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: What About Tesla?
SPX futures are +5 and we see if 4524 holds to keep upper momentum. The trade is very specific right now. SNAP, INTC and IBM put pressure on tech. We’ll see how FB’s earnings report after the close goes. Over in tech, as long as QQQ holds the $372 area, it’s hard to get too bearish.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. TSLA is now a top 3 P&L winner for me this year. It gave a beautiful long setup from $807 and another nice reentry post-earnings. It went green and cleared $877 and then $900 Friday. There’s nice upside follow-through this morning on a Morgan Stanley upgrade and Hertz news. I’d trim and trail. AMZN got hit Friday with most of tech as the $3400 pivot broke. I do have a call spread on for earnings Thursday. The only way it works is if a split gets announced, which might be far-fetched. There is a huge channel here with very choppy action, so be careful. FB was having problems even before the SNAP earnings miss which showed advertisers are not spending. It will be important to see if all the negativity is priced in. $317.37 was a recent point of reference. It reports today. They are also planning on changing their name so we will see they announce that.Positions Disclosure as of 10/25/2021 at 8:08 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: What the Market Cares About
We have mixed markets to start the week as the narratives change a bit.. Inflation and higher rates still dominate the headlines but supply chain worries hit their peak last week. China and the Pandemic went on the back burner a few weeks ago. Earnings season is underway. Last week traders were rewarded for using my process to buy leaders and get risk back on when the 8/21 day gets reclaimed like SPX did at 4380. That was the day after a Red Dog Reversal buy signal last Wednesday. SPX futures are -20 which makes sense after such a big move. This gives traders a way to cover some hedges, and perhaps add back stocks they trimmed into last week’s strength. I’d think 4440-4445 holds to keep this new active long sequence intact. it can even see 4380 and still be fine – just a little choppier.Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. The banks played their usual game. JPM’s report was sold, then they rallied each day after and XLF hit a high of $39.71. It could use a digestive day above $39.18. My JPM plan worked great. I bought $165 calls into weakness last Wednesday in the $1.50 area. I trimmed over half Friday to get smaller. Earnings are quickly approaching. NFLX is tomorrow and TSLA is Wednesday. The rest of F.A.N.G. reports next week. NFLX paid us a few times as it cleared the channel to see $646+. Then it took the week off. It has a decent looking bull flag. I might put on a call spread for Tuesdays’ earnings for a move above the recent highs. I’ll post it if I do today. TSLA has been a great relative strength play. It held the 8 day while the SPX was hitting the 100 day. Then it cleared the $807 area and is above $850 this morning. Being away for my race helped me stay long. I’ll trim most into this earnings Wednesday. I don’t take stock into earnings. I might do an options play but I’m not sure yet. AAPL did not lead this last move but participated. They have an event today where they are expected to announce new MacBooks and a new generation of AirPods. See if there’s any surprises. It needs to hold the $143.50 area to stay constructive.Positions Disclosure as of 10/18/2021 at 8:08 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: The Big Oil Story
We have mixed markets around the world with rising energy prices, rates, and inflation dominating the narrative.SPY had a nice calculated move from $429 up to the $442 resistance area. Friday it started to fill the gap and this morning it’s around $435. Perhaps there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to add some back against this morning. $432.50 is the last support line to keep things looking constructive. So see if that holds.Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Oil is at 7-year highs over $81. OIH has been a nice swing long for the past two weeks. I’d be looking to trim, not add. It’s almost finished the measured move to $220. The 10 year (TNX) didn’t pull in with Friday’s weak jobs report. It held the 1.57% line I talked about. Now it’s on the way to the March highs which can keep some pressure on tech. Watch TNX and TLT intraday to help measure the action. NFLX hit my measured move of $640+ so I’m out. Some will stay as long as it keeps riding the 8 day down near the $620 area. UBER: I bought last Wednesday as the pattern looked great and Mark Mahaney called it his favorite pick. It cleared $46.89 to see $48.88 where I got smaller to book some profits with my tier system. Now, I’d like to see it hold the $47.50 area to stay with it. Bitcoin has had nice power since clearing $44,000. It hit $55,000+. It’s pretty impressive that it held $53,000. Now it looks headed to the $59,000-$64,900 zone.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Why Rates Matter Now
SPX futures are -10 after a rollercoaster ride overnight. We’ll see if there’s any commitment to Friday’s reversal. SPY needs to hold the $432-$433 range. A close below that and it gets very choppy. QQQ’s need to hold the $357 area. Watch the 10 year (TNX) and TLT for clues on the broader action. (more on these below)Now let’s dig into some of the individual things I’m watching. Rates are dictating a lot of the trade because that’s how the computers are programmed. TNX broke below 1.50% and hit 1.46% Friday which helped tech. Watch it today. If the 10 year is going back to the March highs at 1.7%, tech will remain vulnerable. TLT bounced which helped the tech reversal. It’s down today. See if it holds the $143.65 area. Otherwise tech can really get hit. If it tries for green, perhaps we get some red to green action in tech. Banks should be good to buy on dips as we get higher rates in the coming months. XLF has last week’s low at $37.49 to trade against.BAC had a big move from $40 to $44+ for some. It held the 8 day where I bought some to try and position for better upside. This might be the place to be if rates continue to trend higher. $44.04 is a recent high. I will only add on dips. The F.A.N.G.-type names have been under pressure and just giving tactical trades for now as rates rise. TSLA will be very important today. It had very strong deliveries. Can it hold the early strength and stay above $793-$799 and extend higher? Or does the news get sold? This will be a big measure of sentiment and risks so pay close attention. NFLX has been the best F.A.N.G. type name and held the 8 day Friday. I’d see if today’s dip is buyable. It would be constructive to hold the $599-$608 area. The Squid Game is really popular and is getting a lot of press.Positions Disclosure as of 10/4/2021 at 8:04 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Where the Algos Go
SPX futures are -5 and off the overnight highs. For this market to rebuild and remain constructive for active longs, the 4400 area needs to hold. It did go from the 100 day up to 4463 fast. We’re seeing a bit of digestion and it seems like the algos are programmed to buy banks and value after the Fed’s hawkish language. Yields are lifting which could get worrisome at some point, but for now it’s considered a “normalization process.”Now let’s dig into some of the individual names I’m watching. I took a lot of DATS in the $8.50 area. It triggered above $9.13 to see $12+ to manage my last tier. Now I’d like to see it hold $10 on the remainder. HOOD was a good buy in the $41 area and it hit $47+ to book some gains. I’m still in some and will see if the $44 area holds to stay with it. CALX was a nice trade through $49 and it hit $53.50. I did buy some as it held $50. That spot needs to hold for the stock to stay special. FCEL isn’t an over focus, but I picked some up around $6.50 to see if it gets a better bounce if small caps do a bit better. Holding $6.70ish keeps it looking okay. I put on DLO last week and it acted well. Now it needs to clear $68ish with volume to open the door for $73+.Positions Disclosure as of 9/27/2021 at 8:24 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Hard Times!
Over the two weeks, we’ve been cautious because of macro issues like Evergrande/China, the Debt Ceiling, Fed Tapering, and US tax hikes.From a technical perspective, the SPX got faulty and then lost the 8/21 day to have active traders reducing risk. 14,000+ traders around the world have read my moving averages ebook, so hopefully you were more careful. For a market correction to happen, you need a close below the 8/21day. Then we get Price Discovery. Everyone will guess on what comes next. We’ll map out levels and be tactical and measure things along the way. In a sea of red, we’ll see if any groups can go green for a trade. That should be your big focus now.Now let’s dig into the major ETF’s so you know what to watch to start the week. Tech got faulty late last week, especially Friday when I got out of all the F.A.N.G. type names. Now we’ll see if QQQ’s can hold the 50 day near $368.50-$369.50 for a trade. If that zone breaks, volatility will spike further with the 100 day all the way down at $360. IWM had a little relative strength on Friday, but it still isn’t special. For today, see if it can reclaim $219. Otherwise, I’d avoid it. XLF closed below the 8/21 day which makes the banks an avoid. Now see how it handles the $37.15 area. I gave OIH until $184 as the energy sector is always tricky. Some are giving it to $178. I’ll see how it acts the next few sessions. Two weeks ago, I put on a big VXX call spread in case volatility hit. I took the October 15 $30/$35 spread for a cost of $0.65 to make $4.35. I might trim some 20% the long side and keep the short side. Usually, VXX spikes only last a week or so and it’s less than a month to expiration.Positions Disclosure as of 9/20/2021 at 8:24 a.m. ET
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