Category Archives for Scott Redler Dog Bytes
Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Tactical Trading in Tech
SPX futures were down big but are off the lows on news that Russia-Ukraine could have a diplomatic outcome. Last week they sold the CPI report. On Friday, there were ways to adjust as 4515 was rejected and 4484 was broken. For two weeks I’ve discussed the possible head & shoulders. Now we’ll see if we hold above the neckline. Reclaiming 4401 would relieve some pressure today. But I think we will test 4220 in the weeks to come. For today we’ll see if 4455-4500 gets rejected.TSLA: last Thursday I pointed out how it wasn’t leading, which was a reason to be cautious. Some got short when it broke $920 or $895. I avoided it. It’s getting some downside follow-through this morning. Perhaps there is a tactical long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $829 is support and then $792 is the low. If it reclaims $850.70, it might relieve some pressure. AAPL: many active longs got stopped out at $174.90 or $170. This morning we’ll see if there is tactical long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low for cash flow. See if it reclaims Friday’s low of $168.04. MSFT gave clues the sellers can take control again as $307 broke. That got confirmed below $299 Friday. We will be tactical each day here. Maybe there is a scalp long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. $294.22 is Friday’s low. GOOGL failed to hold $3018 and filled its post-earnings gap in four days. It’s not special. But there are tactical trades. On Friday, it hit a low of $2668. We’ll see if it holds the January lows or if it gives a tactical bounce vs. a 5-15-30 minute low.Positions Disclosure as of 2/14/2022 at 9:03 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Talks Moving Averages and More on Seeking Alpha
In this video, Scott Redler joins Daniel Snyder of SeekingAlpha for a special interview:Scott goes over:How he views the 8, 21, 50, and 200 day moving averagesWhy Scott predicted 2022 would be trickyWhy the market is so challengedWhat a healthy market looks likeThe signal Meta (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL) is sendingWhy Scott is watching Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT)Why bank longs are happyWhether or not the Fed watches the marketHow stocks like PayPal (PYPL) and Peloton (PTON) have fooled tradersWe hope you enjoyed this interview!Scott’s Positions as of 2/8/2022 at 5:06 p.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Bears vs. Tech
Last week, the markets had a nice calculated bounce to bring the Oscillator from -100 to +20. The question is now did we just see the 2022 low or will we digest and rebuild for new highs? Now I’m using SPX 4451 as active support and 4539 as resistance. Some stocks can be held with care which I’m doing, along with range trades for cash flow. I did put on a bit more risk Friday.AAPL will be interesting. The bears can’t growl too loudly if it holds the $170 area. If we have a positive week, there’s room to $176. MSFT is sloppy at times. We can’t be too bearish if it stays above $299.97, but it needs time to rebuild and be trusted. GOOGL will be good for clues and a potential swing long. Some will try to be long vs. $2810. And if tech gets better, this should help lead the way. Getting back above $2900 would help sentiment. AMZN worked well for us. I netted 100+ points in my call spread. Now I’ll see if it can create a new pattern to tactically approach but I’m not in a rush. $3012 is new active support. Pivot resistance is $3224. NFLX gave a decent tactical move from $395 to $458. On Friday, I focused on the pullback. Some bought it with the Red Dog Reversal at $404. I sold puts for last Friday (which worked) and this Friday.Positions Disclosure as of 2/7/2022 at 8:40 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Earnings Action in F.A.A.N.G. Stocks
The SPX hit a low of 4222 and held 4287 Friday, giving a relief rally. It feels like this can continue for a bit. But I think things would be hard if it sees the 4495-4505 area, with 4530-4569 above. If we get an oversold bounce it might form a right shoulder to complete a macro head & shoulders pattern, but we’ll measure it daily.AAPL responded well to earnings on Friday. Can money hide here and buy dips? We shall see. I’m long and will see if it can hold the $167 area to start a better active sequence. Below that, it gets sloppy. NFLX: Reed Hastings buying stock (after Ackman last week) has it trading better. It’s hard to chase. But if it holds the $295 area, it can test the earnings gap pivot up near $408. FB has earnings on Wednesday. I’m not doing an options strategy but it will be interesting. See if it holds today and goes green for a trade. $293 is the low. AMZN broke $3300 and hit a low of $2709. There is a defined lower pivot ahead of earnings Thursday. There’s room to $3125-$3150 before the report. GOOGL has earnings on Tuesday. It will be important for sentiment. I’m not playing it. Big resistance is at $2786ish.Positions Disclosure as of 1/31/2022 at 9:01 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Sloppy Action in Semis
SPY has had four hard down days since breaking the accelerated trend around $460. That confirmed the Bearish tape after losing the 8/21 day up near $468. We’ll see if we can play some type of oversold bounce today. Let’s see if we reclaim Friday’s low of $437.95. Under there is a micro spot at $432 and then a more major one at $426.The semis got sloppy like most tech sectors. SOXL broke below the 8/21 day and strength was sold all week as it hit $45.81 yesterday. See if there’s a scalp long vs. a 5-15-30 minute low or if it reclaims the $43.42 pivot low from Friday. It’s broken like everything else. NVDA is purely a tactical trade as long as we are in this type of tape. It was rejected last week around $285 and then broke $271. Some did well short. It gave a red to green trade Friday and then rolled over. Maybe there’s an opportunity vs. a 5-15-30 minute low around the 200 day if we get a signal to buy. See if it reclaims Friday’s low at $232.66. AMD lost special status as it broke the 8/21 day around $144 and it has been for sale ever since then. It broke $125 to give clues of more selling in the semis. It gives some two way action like Friday long and short. Now, see if there’s a signal to buy for a red to green trade. The 200 day is right here. See if it reclaims Friday’s low of $118.39.Positions Disclosure as of 1/24/2022 at 8:54 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Nowhere to Hide in Banks
SPX futures are -50 and we’ll see if this ascending channel breaks. Does it stay below 4614 or reclaim it to relieve some pressure? 4582 is support below with major support at 4500. Tech is underperforming and JPM’s action proves you just can’t hide in value or banks.I got out of my banks last Wednesday because I don’t hold through earnings – which is a good thing considering how these names are acting after the prints. JEF and JPM got hit on results. GS under pressure this morning. XLF held the $40.34 pivot. See if that holds. JPM underwhelmed on earnings and had a big gap down with a hole in its chart. Sometimes there is a better entry the week after earnings. See how this handles Friday’s low of $156.90 and I’ll see patiently if I want to enter again. GS failed to impress exactly when Wall Street said you had to be long banks. Now they are testing the 200 day. See if GS can hold the $366 area. Otherwise it can go a lot lower.Positions Disclosure as of 1/18/2022 at 8:51 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Are F.A.A.N.G. Stocks Worth It?
SPX did a false breakout around the 4730-4740 area and now it looks below 4660 with the futures -30. Powell gets confirmed Tuesday, CPI is Wednesday, and banks start reporting earnings on Friday. Most active traders are in a Tactical Approach because it’s hard to find special names to sit in as swing longs.F.A.N.G. stocks have very specific tactical action. AAPL lost momentum as it broke the $179 pivot to get me out. It looks below $171. See if it stays below that, or reclaims it to relieve pressure. $167.45 is key support below. MSFT was sold to start 2022 as it broke the 8/21 day. It has been for sale since. $310.09 is Friday’s low. See if it holds or stays below that. The next spot is $305.50ish. FB is trying to re-build, but it’s still very tricky. It needs to hold the $322 area. See if it stays below or reclaims Friday’s low of $328.88. AMZN’s false move around $3414 in AMZN led to more weakness and it hit a low of $3238. It’s a tough name as it works lower. $3175 is the next support spot, but it looks like $2881 can happen over time if tech remains for sale. It’s hard to press short or buy. $3238 is key – does it stay below or reclaim that? GOOGL lost special status as it broke the $2875 pivot area to see $2715 Friday. Watch that pivot today, but looks like the 200 day down near $2600 is in the cards.Positions Disclosure as of 1/3/2022 at 9:17 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Trading F.A.A.N.G in 2022
The first level to hold is SPX 4786 then we’ll see if there is strength to clear 4808. Be on alert because 2021 winners may get sold now that taxes are pushed off until 2023. And beaten down names can get a lift because tax loss selling is over. Support for the week is 4765ish. F.A.N.G. stocks have very specific tactical action. I’m still looking to trade them to net money. AAPL can be a good stock for clues on tech. I’m still long from before my trip. We’ll see if it can get and stay above $179.23 or of profit takers come in. $177.26 is the 8 day and pivot support from last week to adjust around. MSFT was a strong leader last year. We’ll see if the gap up holds or fades. Key active support pivot is $335.85. To get better, it needs to get and stay above $339.36. FB gave us a move from $335 ish to $350+ and then came in pretty hard. I still have half my call spread on. I’ll give it some time. We’ll see if opening strength holds, or if they sell it. Watch $336.27 as key support for the day. GOOGL was choppy last year but made a few all-time highs to help lead. It closed on the lows Friday and it is up today. We’ll see how it reacts in the first 5-15-30 minutes for clues. $2897 is Friday’s low to watch. AMZN lagged for most of last year in a big tricky range with limited opportunities. I positioned into two call spreads because it might wake up. Today, it’s up $18. See if new flows have power to keep it up, or if it goes red. If that happens, see how it handles the $3331 pivot low from Friday.Positions Disclosure as of 1/3/2022 at 9:17 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: How I’m Trading Crypto
SPX futures are -55 and we’ll see if the 4495-4513 area holds. Otherwise the 200 day can’t be ruled out in the sessions ahead. Look at tech for clues today and see if leaders can go green to mute the selling. Cooler heads usually prevail.I don’t think Bitcoin or Ethereum have bottomed. Bitcoin moves fast and also follows active sequences. On 11/9 it gave \ a sell signal around that 69k pivot which was confirmed when $63k broke to get me into 75% cash. It just hit $45k and bounced a bit but I’m still waiting. I’d be interested closer to $42k down to $37.6k if we get a whoosh. I warned that Ethereum is vulnerable and can play downside catch-up after the double top and loss of the 8/21 day near $4250. It broke below the $3960 area but didn’t accelerate lower. I’d be interested closer to $3400ish, $3200ish, and then $2700ish. Otherwise I”ll stay away until I see a more constructive price pattern. I sold more than half of my CRO as it hit .97c. I kept 25% and got filled Friday night into the .40 area. I took most of that off into the .60+ bounce. Be careful! If Ethereum and Bitcoin break this can see the .30’s again which might be a spot to accumulate. WAX was a huge winner. I started at .08. I sold 25% at .74 and another 25% at .97 to get me down to half. Recently, I got very heavy into the .40-.50 area again but was able to trade around that as it hit .73 on the AMZN news. This is still my biggest alt coin. But the market still seems vulnerable so I’m being careful. I’d be interested closer to .35-.42 again if it sees it.Positions Disclosure as of 12/20/2021 at 8:03 a.m. ET
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: 6 Big Tech Names I’m Watching
SPX futures are +15. Last week the index digested above the 8 day after reclaiming all the moving averages. We’ll see if it holds 4713 and builds or fades. It’s a tape of “haves and have nots” which has some traders frustrated because only a few names are driving the action. We’ll see if that changes.Now let’s dig into some of the big tech names I’m watching: AAPL got back in charge as it cleared $152 and $157 back in mid-November. It has been special since then. I did well with calls and stock. It got a double upgrade and is above $179.63 this morning. I’d trim into strength and wouldn’t start a fresh long up here because it’s extended. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy short. GOOGL is back above all the moving averages. It held the $2900 area all week. Some are long vs. that range. A close above $2980 opens the door for a test of all-time highs, or even more upside.AMZN is trying to rebuild after holding the 200 day. It’s still not special but the longer it holds the $3410 area, the higher the probability it clears $3549 with the next spot above near $3675. I might put on a macro call spread for late January if this channel finally wants to resolve higher.NFLX lost special status weeks ago. Recently it held the $594 area. Maybe it works vs. $606 for a move to $632, but it’s not very compelling. QCOM has a nice technical set up. Some are long vs. $180 to engage it. Others are waiting for a strong volume move over $188 to break out to new highs. RBLX is getting very loose and wide. We’ll see if it can get tighter and hold the $113 area to get constructive again.Positions Disclosure as of 12/12/2021 at 8:03 a.m. ET
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