Scott Redler’s Dog Bytes: Why I Bet Against Apple and Microsoft


SPX futures are -65, giving big downside follow-through to the recent technical damage. We'll see if SPX stay belows the 4060ish area, or if it gets reclaimed. I positioned for a down open with SPYMSFT, and AAPL puts since I've been concerned about a capitulation move towards 3850.

Tech has led us lower for most of 2022. See if the QQQ’s can stay below $305.11 or if that gets reclaimed to relieve some pressure. Watch key leading stocks like AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, and AMD for clues on the action.


AAPL will be interesting. Last Thursday I bought $150 puts in case it plays downside catch-up. I'll trim some and hold some. See if it stays below $153-$154 to keep pressure on. If it stays weak $150 is below.

MSFT: I went out short which will help my morning. I covered some below $268. I am also long puts for Friday. We'll see if it stays below $270 or reclaims it to relieve some pressure.

(Editor's Note: Scott covered the rest of his MSFT short at 9:28 a.m. this morning. He also sold some of his AAPL puts after the open)

AMZN’s upper channel resolved lower well before the earnings report. Now the comps are bad, growth has decelerated, and they waited too long to announce the split. If the SPX sees the 3850 area in the weeks ahead, it could hit $2050, where I’d revisit options. It's been weaker than most F.A.N.G.-type names over the past few weeks. See if it reclaims $2261. If we stay under pressure all day, I might sell some lower strike puts for a trade.

ARKK has been in an accelerated downtrend since the $159 top. It then tried to form a channel but broke it around $113. It's been below the 8/21 day since then with many bear flag continuation patterns. The recent low is $43.99. See if it stays below that or reclaims it for tactical action. The $35 area may be a good spot for long-term money.

Positions Disclosure as of 5/9/2022 at 9:45 a.m. ET