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8 Things You Need to Know: The Fed Is Dead Ahead
1. The Fed Is Dead Ahead Buckle up buttercups, because the FOMC Rate Decision is dead ahead. Following this week’s CPI and PPI reports and last week’s stinker of a jobs report, the CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut. As you can see on the right side of this chart, the odds show a 96.4% chance of a 25 bps cut. The odds of a 50 ups cut are a mere 3.6%. But of course, traders are looking for guidance on the future rate trajectory, which feels like a mystery at this point. But what are equities saying? 2. Rate Sensitive Stocks Are Rocking Homebuilders and small caps are rocking in Q3. Look at these numbers: The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up 17.9%, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up 10.4%. Meanwhile, SPY is up just 6.4%. So traders are absolutely pricing in a more dovish Fed. 3. Oracle Stole Nvidia’s Crown Oracle (ORCL) popped 36% on Wednesday after the company said AI-driven cloud revenue will hit $144 billion by FY2030. That’s more than 7X what it will make this year, taking the entire trading and investing world by storm. The stock is now up 77% YTD, knocking Nvidia off the top of the megacap AI heap. And Oracle estimates are going through the roof. According to Koyfin data: The FY2028 consensus revenue estimate went from $99.6 billion to $114 billion. That’s a 14% bump OVERNIGHT. The FY2029 consensus revenue estimate went from $120.4 billion to $165 billion. An increase of 37%. We haven’t seen anything like this since Nvidia (NVDA) in late 2023, when the AI story was just emerging. 4. The 90’s Are BACK Speaking of Oracle, have you noticed how many 1990’s stock market darlings are up huge in 2025? These are the best performing S&P 500 stocks of 2025: Western Digital (WDC) Micron (MU) CVS (CVS) General Electric (GE) Corning (GLW) Lam Research (LRCX) Broadcom (AVGO) KLA Tencor (KLAC) Jabil (JBL) Most of these names have ties to AI, data storage, and the power grid, so it makes sense. Plus, Old Navy is pushing Nirvana shirts and the Backstreet Boys sold out The Sphere in Las Vegas… so the 90’s really are back. 5. Tim Walz Took on Tesla and Failed… Again Minnesota Governor Tim Walz scored an 8/10 with this Tweet making fun of Elon Musk losing his status as the world’s richest person: https://t.co/piZWl3Cl9B pic.twitter.com/m4VAeh3uHv â Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) September 10, 2025 Back in March, Tim Walz put in the bottom when he celebrated the weakness in Tesla stock. That was when Sami Abusaad infamously bought 2,500 Tesla shares. And you know what? Tesla Tim gave his second buy signal of the year – the skyrocketed following the Tweet we just showed you: As the proud owner of 500 Tesla shares, thank you Tim! Actually, that was a typo. I have 5 shares of Tesla. Carry on… 6. The Bears Are On Patrol The AII Sentiment Survey shows that just 28.0% of investors are bullish on the stock market for the next 6 months. This is the 6th straight week of below-average bullishness. And it’s the lowest bullish reading since April 30. This is great news because it means people are still on the sidelines. 7. OpenDoor Is the #1 Short King Opendoor (OPEN) stock skyrocketed this week after it named Shopify (SHOP) COO Kaz Nejatian as CEO. Opendoor cofounder and new chairman Keith Rabois told CNBC “Thereâs 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I donât know what most of them do. We donât need more than 200 of them.” Nejatian’s claim to fame is eliminating almost all meetings at Shopify so people can get stuff done. So this looks like a match made in heaven. We used Koyfin to screen for US equities with 15%+ short interest and a market cap over $500 million. And Opendoor is #1 by a mile with its 467% gain: 8. This Might Be the Hungriest Kid on Wall Street T3 just launched its first-ever podcast “The T3 Alpha Show.” Our first guest is Sam Rabinowitz, a young buck hungry for a job on Wall Street. So he physically walked to Wall Street to get his shot by holding a sign. This is his story:
Continue Reading -->Pro Trader AI Roundtable: Is the Trend Alive?
Sami Abusaad, JR Romero, and special guest Charlie Moon of Prosper Trading came together today for a wide-ranging discussion on AI in trading: We went over: Why so few traders are using AI How Charlie uses AI extensively as a high-speed analysis and automation tool JR’s specific use of AI in testing his strategies Why Sami hasn’t found a use for AI yet Why Oracle (ORCL) rose so much after earnings The reason the AI trade is not done yet Why the market remains bullish – and impossible to short Everyone’s favorite ideas – including China plays, semiconductors, retailers, and more! And more!
Continue Reading -->Just 31.7% of Traders Use AI, Survey Says
Do Traders Use ChatGPT and Other AI Tools? According to a recent survey of our community… not really. We emailed our fans asking a simple question: Are you using AI in your trading in any way? 379 traders answered the question. 31.7% said yes, they are using AI tools like ChatGPT in trading. And 68.3% said no. Why Aren’t More Traders Using AI? Overwhelmingly, traders who aren’t using AI offered some variation of “I don’t know how.” Here’s a sample of unedited survey responses: “Don’t know how to. I am used to reading charts myself…” “No idea of where to find” “Myself. Learning curve.” “Donât have the knowledge” “The few AI trading I came across was too complicated.” “Don’t know how to use it” “Unfamiliar how to use effectively” This shows there is a lack of education regarding AI in trading, or at the very least, a lack of awareness. Some respondents also have a lack of trust in AI tools, and the companies behind them: “haven’t seen any AI tools that I think will help. they might be available I am just not aware” “Glitches and potential losses” “Desire to remain off the grid in terms of ongoing info tracking, hacking, etc. Don’t trust AI completely as it’s used maliciously too much “ “Don’t see how it could be useful for me to use it for trading. I see how firms with millions of dollars could have teams of phd’s using it.” We also asked those who don’t use AI in trading “What could make you start using AI?” The answers mostly revolved around proof and education. Here’s a sample of unedited responses: “High degree of confidence that AI is not going to hallucinate” “Demo on how it would work and help” “Seeing how it works and if it works consistently!” “I would have to clearly understand how it would work for me and make money with less effort and greater results.” “Teach me how to use it and implement it into my trading platform” “Clear evidence of consistent lower risk and higher gain” “If I could trust it, but I don’t know enough about it to know what that would entail.” So it seems like more traders would use AI if they had proof it helps, and a clear path for learning. But what about the traders who are using AI? What AI Tools Are Traders Using? We asked traders who are using AI “Which AI tools do you use in your trading?” Here are the most commonly mentioned tools, in order of mentions (most to fewest): ChatGPT Grok Perplexity Gemini Claude How Are Traders Using AI? We asked the “Yes” respondents “How do these tools help you?” The answers largely fell into 5 categories: Information and Research: finding top-performing stocks, dividend dates, YTD percentages, revenue increases, company research, fundamentals, technical setups, heavily followed stocks, categorizations, correlations, betas, news, and summarizing reports/data. Analysis and Ideas: generating option ideas, backtesting, analyzing charts, creating possible scenarios and reasoning models, finding bullish sentiment, custom queries for trends and levels, trade review, strategy analysis, and identifying shared positions among traders. Time-Saving and Efficiency: optimizing backtesting and script writing, parsing information, bulk data generation and refinement, fast and quick information retrieval, reducing manual legwork, speeding up organization, and record-keeping. Decision Support: making better decisions, double-checking decisions, and acting as a thinking partner for swing trade ideas. Trade Execution Support: Finding entries and timing, selecting expiry, stops, and limit targets, sifting trading ideas. And here are a few specific answers (unedited) we found interesting: “AI to me is research, learning, and idea-bouncing without bias or judgment. I upload charts for Wyckoff and pattern recognition help (wedges, triangles, flags, etc.), and I use it to bounce swing trade ideas as a thinking partner â never as a trade signal generator. Sometimes Iâll reverse engineer a proâs trade I didnât fully understand, and AI helps me break it down step by step. What makes it invaluable is education: it explains concepts in multiple ways until they finally click.” “Be more disciplined, find stocks, compare stocks, define risk, suggest tier and trim, keeps track of watch list. Logging trades. Plans the news, interpret technicals, summarize news” “It’s the perfect data finder among the emotional outpouring. It’s unbiased and can put together trends.” “Optimize backtesting and script writing mainly with some help in parsing information from the tools I use” “Ideas for investing, and lots of calculations and forward projecting with my Risk parameters.” What Do Traders Want from AI? Finally, we asked current AI users “What do you wish AI could do for you?” There was a huge range of answers, falling into these categories: Prediction and Forecasting: Users want AI to predict future market prices, such as tomorrow’s market movers, the impact of interest rates on stocks, and accurate forecasts for detailed decision-making approaches. Automated Trading/Recommendations: many traders want AI tools to scan databases for optimal entries, set stops, and targets, generate option ideas, execute trades based on user-defined rules, create specific charts with indicators, suggest trading systems, identify high-probability stock moves, and find setups. Enhanced Analysis: many traders want AI to analyze charts on multiple timeframes, plot price points in relation to news, analyze news for trading probabilities, provide solid market analysis, perform trade journaling analysis, analyze strategies and setups with suggestions/corrections, and pick top stocks in sectors based on various parameters. Performance Improvement: traders want AI to improve their P&L in many ways, like minimizing losses, improving trading discipline, findind better trades, and providing a competitive edge against high-frequency trading. Full Automation: some traders want AI to take care of the entire process from idea generation to entry to exit. Here are some unedited individual answers we found interesting: “See the future. For example: interest rates will probably go down in the next few months. If ai could look ahead and see this and then analyze which stocks might benefit the most from this in the future.” “Pick the top stock in each sector
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: The Job Market Stinks
Serious about markets? This is what you need to know: 1. The Jobs Market Stinks For the second straight month, the BLS dropped a crappy nonfarm payrolls report with downward revisions to prior readings. And immediately, traders started pricing a 100% probability of a September rate cut, with an 11.8% chance of a 50 bps cut, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. That wasn’t the only disappointing employment data point this week. We also had misses on: ADP Nonfarm Employment ISM Manufacturing Employment ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Initial Jobless claims The job market stinks. And this has traders thinking about… 2. Revenge of the Small Caps For years, small cap rallies have failed and failed again. But a rebound is starting to feel real. Growing expectations for Fed rate cuts pushed up rate-sensitive stocks on Friday, including small caps. And the Russell 2000 is now up 9.6% in Q3, more than doubling the SPX’s performance. We also saw big strength in housing stocks, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) up nearly 2%. And XHB is now up over 24% over the past 3 months, so traders are already pricing in an improving housing market. But, one high-profile stock is looking pretty sad: 3. Nvidia Lost Its Shine Last week, you learned about Nvidia’s growing “awareness problem.” Nvidia’s earnings beats keep getting smaller because analysts have boosted estimates so much. So those upside surprises have lost their oomph. And then this week, Broadcom (AVGO) announced a $10 billion AI chip deal with an undisclosed customer. The word on the street is that ChatGPT maker OpenAI is the mystery buyer. The street viewed this as a market share loss for Nvidia, so the stock showed relative weakness Friday. So Nvidia is in the penalty box for the first time since the release of the DeepSeek AI model, which was allegedly so efficient that it would hurt demand for AI chips. (didn’t happen) 4. Sydney Sweeney Turned Up the Heat on Cracker Barrel A month ago, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) came under fire for its “Great Jeans” ad campaign starring Sydney Sweeney. Mainstream media critics hated the campaign. Young denim buyers loved it, and American Eagle’s strong earnings report sent the stock higher than Ozzy circa 1982. So for now, American Eagle is the champion of “Culture War Earnings Season.” The only question we have is did Ms. Sweeney get paid in stock? If she did, she made the trade of the year. Pelosi-esque, if you will. Next up is Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which has come under fire for alienating its core customers with its modern rebrand. If the cultural tide is shifting the way it looks, Cracker Barrel’s next earnings report (should be around 9/19) could be a big ol’ mess. 5. There Is a Lack of Faith in the Market Despite the SPX hovering near all-time highs, and markets pricing in a September rate cut, there is little trust in this market. The AAII Sentiment Survey came in at just 32.7% bullish this week. That’s the 5th straight week of below-average bullishness. But this is healthy for the market. Because it implies there is still capital on the sidelines ready to be deployed. 6. Earnings Estimates May Be Too High Factset reports that analysts raised estimates slightly for S&P 500 companies for Q3. This is a big turnaround for Wall Street. During the last 20 quarters, analysts CUT estimates by 1.0% on average in the first 2 months of a quarter. But this time they are RAISING numbers. This is bad bad bad. In recent quarters, companies smashed estimates because the bar was so low. The higher estimates go, the harder it is to come by beats. Which you just learned is Nvidia’s biggest problem. And estimates have risen most in tech. +4.4% to be exact. 7. The Yoga Pants Economy Is in Freefall Lululemon (LULU) has been in freefall all year, and got destroyed on Friday after cutting guidance again. So middle-to-upper-income consumers are tightening their wallets. One must wonder… are fellow “yoga pants demographic” stocks like Starbucks (SBUX) and Target (TGT) destined for lousy earnings in coming quarters? The job market can’t be helping, and these names have been underperforming as it is: 8. Gold Is In Chainsaw Mode It’s been a banner year for gold bugs. And on Monday, GLD cut through $317 resistance like a chainsaw through butter: And it hit a record high at $331.44 Friday. Why? It’s a perfect storm. We have economic fears, geopolitical concerns, a weak dollar, and central bank/ETF demand. I’ve made fun of the gold bugs many times. Now I wish I was one. Gold bugs: pic.twitter.com/ejyEKIQfqv â T3 Live (@t3live) September 5, 2025 9. You May Be Ready to Be a Sultan! JR Romero just launched a brand service called “Sultans of Swing Trading.” You can see a sneak preview of how he sets up a swing trading watch list here: 10. Let’s Remember Terence Stamp Legendary British actor Terence Stamp passed away two weeks ago, and shame on us for not mentioning him. Because he had a memorable turn as Gordon Gekko’s nemesis Larry Wildman in “Wall Street.” “I could break you mate..” never sounded so good.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: Nvidia’s Big Problem
We’re closing out August and headed into Labor Day weekend, so let’s look ahead at the 10 things you need to know about the market right now, starting with: 1. Nvidia Has an Awareness Problem Right now, you’re yelling out loud “well everyone knows about Nvidia.” Yes. That is the freaking problem. The entire investing universe is aware of Nvidia’s epic AI-driven growth story. Wall Street caught up, and estimates have skyrocketed. And the beats are getting smaller. Nvidia reported strong numbers Wednesday, but delivered its smallest revenue beat since the launch of ChatGPT ten quarters ago: The upside surprises keep getting smaller – not good for a stock that more than doubled off the April lows. Yes, we know this is partly because of China. But that doesn’t make the situation good. 2. Investors Do Not Trust the Rally The latest AAII Sentiment survey shows that just 34.6% of investors are bullish. This is the 4th straight week of bearish readings. This is very positive. Because it implies some people are still on the sidelines – even with the $SPX just hitting yet another record high at 6,508. Timing the market on sentiment readings is very tricky business, especially outside of extreme levels. But this current 34.6% reading is much healthier than a super-positive 45%+ reading. 3. Traders Are Still Banking on a September Rate Cut Traders are pricing in an 86.9% probability of a September rate cut following Friday’s in-line PCE Price Index report. But what could lock it in? Next Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The last one was an all-time stinker thanks to lower revisions of prior readings. And as a result of traders’ expecting a more dovish Fed… 4. Small Caps Have Been Kicking Butt Traders have been waiting for small caps to rally since Moses wore short pants. And by golly, the small cap surge is finally here. IWM was up 7.1% in August vs. a 1.9% gain in SPY. Conventional wisdom tells us that rate-sensitive stocks rally in advance of an easing Fed, so this makes sense. And speaking of rate sensitive, have you seen the homebuilders this month? They were up over 11%. 5. Culture War Earnings Season Is Coming to a Theater Near You Two of the biggest business stories of August 2025 were American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans” ad campaign, and Cracker Barrel’s (CBRL) comically off-kilter rebranding, which it just reversed. American Eagle stirred up memories of Calvin Klein’s controversial (and massively successful) early ads with Brooke Shields. Cracker Barrel was accused of going woke and forgetting its core customer base. But guess what? American Eagle reports earnings on Wednesday September 3. And Cracker Barrel should hit around September 19. Note: both companies’ quarters ended on August 3 (before these controversies), so their outlooks will be critical. So we might see if and how people voted with their wallets. 6. It’s a Banner Year for the Metals Gold has been ramping hard the past few days, and looks ready to blast through resistance at GLD $317: Gold has been a massive outperformer in 2025 with a 30%+ gain. And it looks like it wants to keep pumping higher. Interestingly, Silver (SLV) has done even better with a 37% pop. And the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is crushing everything with a 51% gain. Heavy metal thunder, indeed. 7. Ethereum Got Tested Ethereum has been a superstar this year thanks to regulatory tailwinds, institutions becoming more crypto-friendly, companies like Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMRN)Â sucking up supply, and good old-fashioned momentum. But the #2 cryptocurrency just got tested. Ethereum just exceeded its 2021 highs by a hair to set a new record at $4,958. Was that a breakout failure just as the world seemed to rally behind Ethereum as the next big long-term theme? Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has been among the biggest Ethereum cheerleaders. His haters want him to be wrong about this: 8. Next Week Won’t Be as Boring As You Think The market is closed Monday for Labor Day. But there’s still plenty going on. Aside from the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, there’s: Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings & Salesforce (CRM) earnings Thursday: ADP Employment, Broadcom (AVGO) and Lululemon (LULU) earnings. So we’ll get clues on the job market, AI chip demand, and whether consumers can still afford fancy yoga pants. Here’s the full calendar: 9. Solar Stocks Are Shining Pardon my pun. Sami Abusaad has been pounding the table on solar stocks for weeks: His favorite has been Solar Edge (SEDG). Look at this beauty of a chart: It looks ready to take off, right? 10. JR Delivered an EPIC Lesson & Rant On Thursday afternoon, JR dropped an wild stream of truth bombs about how you can find your edge as a trader. Want to win big in the markets? Watch this twice:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: A Jackson Hole-in-One
Let’s skip the preambles. You know what everyone cares about this week: 1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Hit a Jackson Hole-In-One Traders were itching for a dovish Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Their dreams came true. Powell said “downside risks to employment are rising” and acknowledged that the economic picture “may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” In other words, the Fed may cut if things get worse. The result? The SPX took off like a rocket to get within striking range of all-time highs. And rate sensitive stocks like small caps, regional banks, and homebuilders outperformed, big time. 2. A September Rate Cut to Remember? As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in an 89.3% probability of a September rate cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. This is up from 75% Thursday, and 58% one month ago. This makes the next nonfarm payrolls report a critical one. The July report was a mess because of large downward revisions to the May and June readings. Another sloppy report could make traders gear up for an even more dovish Fed, and also a weaker economy. 3. Housing Stocks Knew All Along On August 20, homebuilding stocks were ripping and I asked a simple question: Could markets be sniffing out rate cuts already? In hindsight, the answer is yes. Because the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has been gently gliding higher in the face of major concerns about the housing market. So that’s what the smart money has been up to… 4. Nvidia (NVDA) May Be in Danger. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are Wednesday after the close, and traders are bracing for an 11th straight earnings beat. The stock is up 105% from the April lows, aided by big capex spending plans from the likes of Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META). However, post-earnings reactions are all over the place the past few quarters, so tread carefully if you’re placing a bet: With expectations so skewed to the upside, there is an element of danger here. 5. Nvidia’s Not the Only One Nvidia’s not the only tech name reporting next week. We also have: MongoDB (MDB) Crowdstrike (CRWD) Snowflake (SNOW) Dell (DELL Marvell (MRVL) Alibaba (BABA) These names cover a decent spectrum of the tech universe, so keep ’em on your screen. Here’s the full calendar for the week: 6. Ethereum Is THE Momentum Superstar Ethereum was up 13% on Friday, and is now up over 200% from the April lows, crushing Bitcoin: The FT reported that the EU is exploring Ethereum and Solana as a basis for a digital euro. And plenty of market strategists have been throwing out wild Ethereum price targets. Standard Chartered recently upped its forecast to $7,500, and FundStrat’s Tom Lee said today that “Ethereum is arguably the biggest macro trade for the next 10-15 years.” Ethereum is arguably the biggest macro trade for the next 10-15 years đ Tickers: $BMNR $GRNY https://t.co/iDXtNmoMJY â Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) August 22, 2025 And major Ethereum holder Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), of which Tom is chairman, popped 15%. 7. Cathie Wood’s “Secret ETF” Is Kicking @$$ Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is kicking butt, up 35% this year thanks to big bets on winners like Coinbase (COIN), Tempus AI (TEM), and Shopify (SHOP). But she has an even bigger winner in the lesser-known Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), which as you’d think, is levered even more heavily to booming fintech stocks like Robinhood (HOOD) and SoFI (SOFI). Why is ARKF doing so well? A perfect storm of strong financial markets, a dovish Fed, and a favorable regulatory environment. Keep it on the radar. 8. Investors Are Bearish For the third week in a row, the AAII sentiment survey showed that investors are bearish. This bearishness set the stage for Powell’s dovish turn at Jackson Hole. Because you have to imagine that lots of bears rushed in to avoid getting left behind. 9. Cracker Barrel Got Cracked Casual dining chain Cracker Barrel (CBRL) got slammed this week after unveiling its new branding. This: Led to this: So now Cracker Barrel’s next earnings report is suddenly a big deal. Because so many people want to see if the controversy kills sales. Kind of like American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) after its controversial “Good Jeans” ad campaign with Sydney Sweeney. 10. JR Romero Will Lead You Through Nvidia Earnings Week Last week JR Romero said “garbage stocks” are working in this market. And he was right as small caps skyrocketed Friday after Powell’s dovish twist. Want to trade with JR for a week? He’s opening up his Momentum Express VTFÂŽ for free August 25-29. It’s bound to a be a big week with Nvidia (NVDA) on the earnings calendar! Sign up here.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: The Fed Heads to Jackson Hole
We just closed out another exciting week which saw: Conflicting inflation reports with a cool CPI and hot PPI CoreWeave (CRWV) report a wider loss than expected, crushing the stock Circle (CRCL) report a loss in its first post-IPO earnings report Warren Buffett bet big on a major U.S. healthcare provider A face-to-face meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin And MORE! So it’s time for the 10 things you need to know right now. Starting with… 1. Traders Pare Rate Cut Bets – Fed Heads to Wyoming A 50 basis point rate cut was creeping up in conversation after the cooler-than-expected CPI report on Tuesday. But Thursday’s hot PPI put an end to that talk. Traders are still overwhelmingly betting the Fed’s first rate cut of the year will come at the September 17 meeting : The PPI signaled more tariff-related pain may be ahead for consumers as companies pass down rising costs to buyers. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee shook off the hot PPI on Thursday saying, âI donât think that one data point is enough to change a thesis around the trajectory of inflation. Our base case remains that this is going to ultimately be viewed as transitory by the market.â We’ll get a clearer picture on the Fed’s outlook as the annual Jackson Hole Symposium begins on Thursday. This year’s theme is  âLabor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech is slated for Friday, August 23. Coincidentally, the Fed cut rates for the first time in 4 years at its September 2024 meeting. And that was a 50 basis point cut. 2. Next Week’s Earnings Are All About Retail The retail sector is in focus for next week’s slate of earnings. Here’s the schedule: Tuesday AM: $HD Wednesday AM: $TJX $LOW $TGT Thursday AM: $WMT $BABA Friday AM: $BJ Analysts are loving Walmart (WMT) right now: That may just be the name to watch in this group next week. Friday’s retail sales report showed U.S. consumers are still spending. July retail sales rose 0.5% monthly, while retail sales excluding autos rose 0.3%. Both were in line with expectations. 3. Ethereum Inches Toward New All-Time High Ethereum crossed $4,700 early Thursday morning before pulling back and stalling. The previous all-time high is $4,868. Is a new record mark ahead? Tom Lee remains extremely bullish. In a note on Wednesday he wrote, “We have stated multiple times we believe Ethereum is the biggest macro trade over the next 10-15 years.” While Ethereum gets closer to its record high, Bitcoin notched a new one this week. Bitcoin rose to a high of $124,496 overnight on Wednesday before getting hit by the hotter-than-expected PPI Thursday morning. 4. Is The Next Big Crypto Play Bullish? New crypto exchange Bullish (BLSH) debuted on the NYSE Thursday at $90 per share, 143% higher than its IPO price of $37. The company is led by former New York Stock Exchange President Tom Farley and backed by Peter Thiel. Thiel also bet big on BMNR – buying a 9% stake in the company back in July – and we all know how that’s worked out since then. Here’s what the Bullish CEO had to say about their future: âThe last leg of growth in crypto, the last 10 years, was basically all retail and ⌠the institutional wave has begun. Itâs here, and itâs a question of how big it will be. Based on the reception weâve gotten thus far as part of our IPO, it feels like institutional investors feel like this could be the moment.â 5. Housing Market Updates Ahead It’s going to be a busy week for those focused on the housing market. We’ll kick things off Monday with the National Association of Homebuilders August sentiment index at 10:00am ET. Will the recent cooling of rates have builders feeling better about the future? The market will also get a look at how building is going with July Housing Starts and Building Permits out at 8:30am ET and then existing home sales on Thursday at 10:00am ET. In addition to all that data, homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) reports earnings after the market close on Tuesday, the first of the largest builders in the U.S. to report Q3 results. Of note, Berkshire Hathaway appears to believe in the future for homebuilders as they added Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) to their portfolio this week. Speaking of… 6. Warren Buffett Bets Big on UNH Warren Buffett triggered a huge rally in UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on Friday after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) revealed a $1.6 billion stake in the company in a regulatory filing Thursday. As of Thursday’s close, UNH was down nearly 122% from the April high: UNH is the largest private health insurer in the U.S. and has been under fire in the face of public scrutiny over the rising costs of health care. The company is even facing a DOJ investigation into its Medicare billing practices. So why would Berkshire buy the stock now? Buffett has a history of bargain investing and this appears to be the latest move in that direction. UNH is now the 18th largest position in the Berkshire portfolio. Other names added this week include Nucor (NUE), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), and Allegion (ALLE). 7. The Week Could Be Light Although we are getting data on the housing market and some key retail earnings, there aren’t any big market-moving numbers set to be released next week. Take a look at the full calendar: But one earnings name could be one to pay attention to… 8. Keep An Eye On PANW Earnings Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports earnings after the market close on Monday. Software stocks have been beat up lately on fears of AI disrupting the space. The market expectations are: $2.50 billion in revenue, +9.31% from last quarter $0.89 EPS, +10/7% from last quarter And the overall consensus from analysts is positive on this name: PANW is down over 20% from its most recent post-earnings high of $210.39 on July 29. This earnings season, it’s been all about where a stock is
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: Trump’s Inside Man
Wow! What a week! We just saw: The dip buyers achieve a massive victory Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook commit to a $100 billion investment in US manufacturing Palantir (PLTR) cement its status as #1 momentum leader Hims & Hers (HIMS) disappoint on earnings and… (please insert your own obvious joke here) A shocking rally in Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which may be our new super-spec champ President Trump nominate his buddy Stephen Miran to temporarily fill the vacant seat on the Federal Reserve board New tariffs go into effect Sydney Sweeney create a fascinating technical pattern in American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) stock Record highs in Gold And MORE! So it’s time for the 10 things you need to know right now so you can be the genius at the barbecue. Starting with… 1. President Trump Is Going Lock, Stock and Barrel on the Fed President Trump has lobbied the Fed to cut rates, going so far (or so low) as to use the nickname “Too Late Powell” to attack the current Fed Chair. But Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump gets to pick the replacement. And everyone with a brain is asking the obvious question: Who on Earth would take the job other than a Trump loyalist? Somebody like Stephen Miran — who could be Trump’s “inside man” on the current board until January, when the temporary board membership endd. So perhaps another rate cycle is inevitable, because the President is moving on on the Fed lock, stock and barrel. 2. Next Week’s CPI and PPI Reports Are Big We are headed into a pivotal week with the July CPI & PPI reports. Traders are now pricing in an 89.4% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. Odds skyrocketed after the lousy nonfarm payrolls report last week. So CPI and/or PPI had better not come in hot. Yes, the FOMC tends to eye the PCE Price Index more, but the market could still be freaked by hot inflation numbers. Because that could mean stagflation. 3. A Snoozefest Is Not Impossible The CPI and PPI should push the market around, and we should have a stream of funky trade headlines. But, the calendar is pretty light otherwise: So there’s always the chance we brace for volatility… and we just flop around. But let’s zero in on one of next week’s more interesting earnings names… 4. Could CoreWeave Squeeze? AI hyperscaler CoreWeave (CRWV) has been one of 2025’s more interesting IPOs. Everyone hated it when it came public at $40. Three months laster, it was at $187 as the AI megatrend came back in style. It crushed estimates on its first quarterly report three months ago. And analysts are indifferent, with 5 buy ratings out of 22 total ratings: Could the stage be set for a mega rally if CoreWeave rallies? Because we can think of another stock where the analysts go “meh” but the growth is unreal: 5. Palantir’s (PLTR) Growth Is Unreal Palantir dropped another monster earnings beat on Monday. And it’s the #1 stock in the S&P 500 for the second year in a row, gaining over 145% in 2025. It’s far beyond the #2 stock, GE Vernova (GEV), which is up 96%. As with CoreWeave, Wall Street isn’t aboard the Palantir train. Just 4 of 25 cover analysts rate Palantir as a buy – despite a borderline absurd growth streak. Since going public in 2020, Palantir revenues have never declined quarter-over-quarter. Every single quarter was better than the one before: 6. Ethereum Might Slam Through $4,000 So why did Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) rally over 60% this week? Simple. It’s the largest holder of crypto currency Ethereum. Inner Circle’s David Prince explains the “personality” pushing this name: $BMNR is now up over 50% from @epictrades1 entry last week đ Why has this been his crypto focus lately? David says it’s all about the personalities involved with the company. Join the Inner Circle: https://t.co/ihjWyUCC4q pic.twitter.com/dU3lofmgOY â T3 Live (@t3live) August 8, 2025 And Ethereum is on a tear, threatening to slam through $4,000: If that happens, traders may anticipate a move to the $4,868 all-time high. Stay tuned. 7. Keep This Biotech Name on the Radar On Wednesday, Avidity Biosciences (RNA) surged 26% on positive FDA news. But, JR Romero sees even more upside — and he also shares other names he likes in this video: 8. Sydney Sweeney Created a Fascinating Pattern in This Stock American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) skyrocketed last week after unveiling its “Great Jeans” ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney. But “The Sydney Surge” flamed out fast and the stock is compressing in a sideways wedge: There’s a big debate as to how much this new campaign is actually driving sales. We’ll have to wait until earnings in early September to find out. Still… doesn’t this stock look ready to explode? Or implode? 9. Gold Is on the Warpath Gold hit record highs on Friday, and the GLD ETF is now up 29% year-to-date, putting it in third place on the 2025 ETF leaderboard: Gold is rallying for all sorts of reasons ranging from geopolitical concerns to inflation fears to central bank buying, etc. So it’s been a great year for digital gold a.k.a. cryptocurrencies – and real gold. Here’s a chart of GLD vs. the IBIT and ETHE ETFs this year: 10. How to Scan for Winning Trades At Warp Speed It might take you hours to analyze a single chart. It takes Sami seconds. See how he scans through charts are warp speed: P.S. Did you know that Sami’s Pristine Mentorship is open for registration? Go here to learn more.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – The Next Megatrend?
We closed out an Ăźber-busy week highlighted by record stock prices, huge tech earnings beats, one of the wildest IPOs in history, and an awful jobs report. And oh yeah, President Trump announced a whole bunch of tariffs and renewed his attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. So it’s time to break down the 10 things you need to know – including the possible next market megatrend (#4 below) 1. The Ultimate Trump Trade Gets Tested For months, the market was dominated by what we call “The Ultimate Trump Trade,” which was a group of stocks benefiting from: Higher stock, options, and crypto volumes Higher market volatility with higher prices President Trump generating market-moving news multiple times a week Lower regulation Some of the names we included are Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Schwab (SCHW), and Webull (BULL). Now these stocks are being tested – which could be a bad omen for the bulls. We’d keep a close eye on Robinhood since it’s the flagship of the crew. It had a furious bounce off the Friday morning lows: If it keeps extending, this market may not be done. 2. Rate Cut Odds Collapsed… and Then They Spiked. On Thursday, traders were pricing in a mere 39% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. This was down from 52.4% yesterday, and 75.4% a month ago. But after Friday’s messy nonfarm payrolls report, which included major downward revisions for May and June, things changed fast. As of 9:30 am ET Friday, traders were pricing in a 75.5% chance of a September rate cut: 3. “Low Quality” Stocks Got Destroyed On Friday afternoon, we ran one of our favorite stock scans, looking for names with: Market cap above $2.5 billion Revenues under $100 million In recent weeks, these names were up huge. This week, they got absolutely smoked, with just 2 in positive territory: This is a who’s who of stars in speculative sectors like quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI) AI (PONY), crypto (BMNR), and drones (JOBY). 4. Utilities Could Be the Next Megatrend Utilities stocks should be on your radar. Because if rates go down because of economic weakness, utilities could have 3 separate catalysts: The rate cuts themselves, because lower rates are good for utilities stocks A flight to safety AI driving higher electricity demand As you can see, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) is crushing SPY this year: Don’t ignore this potential megatrend. 5. Meta (META) Is the Heavyweight Earnings Champion On Wednesday, after the close, Meta beat earnings estimates by 21.8%. This was its 10th straight earnings beat, and it’s 4th straight double-digit beat. But how did the stock follow through during this epic winning streak? We looked at META’s stock price performance after the previous 9 earnings beats. 30 days later, the stock was higher 7 of 9 times, with an average return of +9.9%. Impressive! Speaking of earnings… 6. Earnings Season Has Been Solid On July 25, FactSet reported that 80% of companies are beating expectations during Q2 earnings season. At the start of earnings season, analysts predicted 4.9% earnings growth. But as of Tuesday, earnings were tracking towards 6.4% growth. And that was before earnings beats from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Qualcomm (QCOM). This is exactly what we saw last quarter – low expectations, and companies jumping over easier hurdles. Yes, the economy is showing cracks, but by and large, big companies are hanging in there just fine. 7. Sentiment Was Tracking Bullish On Wednesday, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 40.3% of investors are bullish, up from 36.8% last week. So we’ve had bullish readings for 4 of the past 5 weeks. Before this streak, there was not a bullish reading since January 30. The change is no shocker, because nothing improves the mood like higher prices. That said, the sloppy Friday action should push sentiment numbers lower. 8. Figma Is a Modern Momentum Marvel Design software maker Figma (FIG) came public Thursday and it was a doozy. The deal priced at $33. The stock opened for trading at $85. It closed at $115.50. And then it hit $150 after hours. It’s come off the highs Friday, but it’s still up on the day as of early afternooon! Even with all sorts of speculative stocks getting spanked. Wild Stuff. 9. Next Week Will Be Big for AI The AI trade went back into full swing as of late because of heavy capex plans from the likes of Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). But the fun isn’t over, because we have 4 key AI names reporting next week: Palantir (PLTR) AMD (AMD) AppLovin (APP) Tempus AI (TEM) They’ll give us plenty of insights on demand levels from all angles of the industry. And just an FYI – AMD has been beating Nvidia (NVDA) year-to-date: By the way, here’s your full calendar: 10. You Need a Trading Plan A trading plan will not guarantee you success. But not having a plan guarantees your failure. So let Sami Abusaad show you the ideal way to put together a trading plan: P.S Did you know that Sami’s Pristine Mentorship is open for registration? Go here to learn more.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Biggest Week Ever Edition
What a week! We just saw: The President of the United States of America argue with the Chair of the Federal Reserve over the cost of building renovations (yes, for real) A US- Japan trade deal Monster earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL) A big ol’ mess from Tesla (TSLA) Record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq And way, way more! So let’s dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right now, starting with… 1. You’re Headed into the Biggest Week of the Year Next week’s calendar is jam packed, highlighted by: US Economics: FOMC Rate Decision, PCE Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls US Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Visa, Starbucks, Robinhood, ExxonMobil, and ARM Holdings International Economics: Japan and Canada Rate Decisions, Germany and Eurozone CPI Plus, we’re destined to get hit with a pile of trade news, including a potential deal between the US and the EU. So if you’ve been hoping more volatility… buckle up because the headlines will be flying in nonstop. So let’s talk about the Fed: 2. Rate Cut Outlook: Not so Good Traders are taking a July rate cut off the table for next week. The CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 2.6% probability of a 25 bp decrease in the Fed Funds rate. There is optimism about September, however. The market now shows a 64.2% chance of a 25 bp cut by the September meeting. Of course, next week’s bevy of US economic data including GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm payrolls will impact expectations. What side are you on? Should the Fed cut rates now, later, or never? Let us know in the comments down below. 3. The Mood Slipped Bearish in the Face of Record Highs Despite the S&P and Nasdaq slamming to all-time highs this week, investor sentiment is slipping. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.8% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight weekly decline since the survey read 45.0% bullish on July 2. And it’s the first bearish reading since June 25. This decline implies there is a lack of trust in the rally, at least among investors. Of course, we are still well off the lows from earlier this year. 4. Tesla Estimates Are Still in Free Fall Tesla (TSLA) delivered its third straight earnings miss. So it’s no shocker that analysts’ estimates are still collapsing: If you look inside the red circle, you can see another dip in FY earnings estimates. Analysts now expect EPS of $1.72 this year, down from $1.81 ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report. And down from $3.24 a year ago. What can I say? Tesla’s still a stock built on hope for the future. On the other hand… 5. Amazon Just Keeps on Shocking Amazon reports earnings next Thursday and it’s always one of the biggest names of the season. Is it pricing in a monster earnings beat? The stock is up 30% in a straight line from the April lows. Plus, as you can see on the table below – Amazon has beaten earnings estimates for 9 straight quarters, with an average beat of +36%. Yet, the stock has sold off the day after earnings 4 times in a row. Could this be #5? 6. Sydney Sweeney Almost Created a Meme Stock Clothing brand American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) rose as much as 28% in premarket trading Thursday on the release of an advertising campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney. And it was looking AEO could turn into a meme stock. But the stock came back down to Earth: Because everyone’s asking a simple but important question: Can Sydney Sweeney drive sales? Analysts are forecasting Q3 sales at $173 million. If she drives $10 to $20 million in extra sales this quarter – that would be pretty big. Keep an eye on this story. Because short interest on American Eagle stock is 12.2% – pretty significant if the numbers get a lift. We recommend asking your teenage kids – “will you start shopping at American Eagle Outfitters?” 7. The AI Trade Rages On Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings report was fantastic, especially in the face of “expert” predictions that AI will kill Google Search. But perhaps the biggest story in that report was Alphabet boosting its capital spending budget, which sent up semiconductor stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD). The best possible bull case for semi stocks for Nvidia is demand outstripping supply. Longs want to hear “we can’t produce chips fast enough.” And if Google’s upping its spend, the competition for AI chips and related items goes up. On the negative side, expectations for Nvidia’s next earnings report are sky-high with the stock at record highs, up 102% from the April lows. And speaking of AI… it’s driving another raging trade… 8. Uranium Is Champion AI is driving increased electricity demand just as the US becomes more friendly to nuclear energy. The result? The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 55% in 2025, more than 5X the return of SPY: And here’s one fun fact about this sector. Uranium miner Cameco (CCJ), which accounts for 23.7% of the URA ETF, has a market cap of just $34 billion. So even at these heightened levels, institutions have very low exposure to this sector. Keep it on the radar. 9. 2025’s Biggest Winners Which S&P 500 stocks have done best in 2025? Let’s take a look. Palantir (PLTR) is in the #1 spot after dominating the leaderboard last year, followed by energy monster GE Vernova (GEV) and gold miner Newmont (NEM). Here’s the top 25: 10. You Can Learn Sami Abusaad’s #1 Indicator in 17 Minutes Sami Abusaad uses two indicators and nothing else. His favorite of the two? The 20-period moving average, which he explains right here in plain English:
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