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You Are Not Alone in the Twilight Zone
What a week! The Supreme Court smacked down President Trump’s tariffs, Q4 GDP flopped, and Amazon (AMZN) surpassed Walmart (WMT) as the world’s #1 company by sales. Our song of the week is Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone.” Blast it while you read this report: 1. If You’re Frustrated, You’re Not Alone Last week, we asked our community if the market felt easier or harder than usual in 2026. 67.7% said harder. So if you’re frustrated by this market, you’re not lone. Because while the major averages are stubbornly range-bound, individual stock performance is all over the place. The S&P 500 is up about 1% year-to-date, and off the highs by about 1%. But drilling below the surface tells a much more interesting story: The average stock has moved 14.4% year-to-date 342 stocks are up, with an average gain of +15.4% 161 stocks are down, with an average loss of -12.4% This implies traders and investors are having trouble with timing. Because 69% of stocks are up and the winners are up more than the losers are down. We can even see this from a sector perspective. If you look at our sector ETF tracker, you see that most ETFs are up: There has been a lot of gains in the market this year. It’s just been touch to catch them because it feels like there’s no follow-through. And if you’re stressed and in need of a fresh start in your trading, check out the Pristine Mentorship with Sami Abusaad and James Rich Young. 2. This Week Is HUGE for Tech Yes, we all know that Nvidia (NVDA) earnings hit on Wednesday. But we’re also getting reports from Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), Intuit (INTU), Autodesk (ADSK), and Dell (DELL)? That means we get insights on software (important given the IGV debacle), AI, and my favorite topics – memory and storage. I own Nvidia stock, but I’m just as interested in Dell. Because Dell spend lots of dough on hard drives and SSDs. So what they say will impact the 3 amigos of storats: SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX). They are the #1, #5, and #9 best stocks in the S&P 500 this year, posting absurd gains: BTW, I own SanDisk and plan on holding it into the Dell report because I agree with JR Romero’s take: 3. The Mood Has Soured There’s still little evidence that investors and traders are overly optimistic, which tracks with how challenging this environment has been. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 34.5% of investors are bullish. This is below the 37.5% long-term average. And it’s well below the 49.5% reading notched on January 14. Also: the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.64, which reads pretty much neutral. This is all good news. Because extremes in bullish sentiment can signal complacency and mark tops. Just remember that timing the market with sentiment data is tricky, if not impossible. 4. OIH Might Hit a Sell the News Energy has been a dominant force in 2026, thanks to geopolitical worries. And this week, President Trump gave Iran a 10-day ultimate to make nuclear deal, or “bad things happen.” The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 36% year-to-date after the “Gap of the Year” on January 5 after the US Army Delta Force plucked Nicolás Maduro out of Venezuela. OIH has crushed every other sector ETF, including the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which is up “only” 22.5%. And it could be getting overbought. So if Trump and Iran make nice, there could be a sell-the-news reaction. I own OIH and XLE and have zero plans to sell. I’m in for life. 5. Software Still Stinks Software looks like it was bottoming. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) showed about 8,000 signs it was oversold, with record volume after a huge decline. And it bounced. For three days. I thought I was smart by picking up the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG). Because that’s the “safer” side of the software arena. Nope. I’m losing money thanks to Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Akamai (AKAM), the #1 and #2 components in BUG, both whiffing on earnings this week. Why haven’t I sold yet? I wish I knew.
Continue Reading -->The Electric Sector That’s Skyrocketing Without You
What a week! We had a big jobs report, a light CPI number, and momentum stocks falling into quicksand. This song seems to fit: So let’s get into this week’s big stories! 1. Utilities Got Hot Consumer Staples was the surprise sexy sector last week. Utilities took the crown this week. Look at that big fat green bar on the weekly chart for the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU): Plus, on Thursday, we noticed a bizarre stat in the options market. As of about 2:30 pm, 231,546 XLU calls had traded. And just 6,129 puts traded. So we had a put-call ratio of 0.026. 38 calls for every 1 put. Crazy. So it looks like some folks were sniffing out a light CPI report. Because a light CPI (which we did get) could mean lower rates which is good for utilities. But there was another big utilities story that didn’t get much attention this week. We all know that AI is driving higher demand for electricity. But did you know that AI giant Anthropic just said it will pay the costs of upgrading electric grids to accommodate AI data centers? That looks like a surprise source of capex funding for utilities. Sounds bullish to me. And on Friday, those call buyers are smiling with XLU on the upswing. FYI – I’m long and strong XLU and VST so my money is where my mouth is. Now let’s talk about the other big sector story this week: 2. The Semis Won’t Stop The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) had impressed this week thanks to surges in leaders like: Applied Materials (AMAT) Lam Research (LRCX) KLA (KLAC) NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) We saw big earnings from AMAT and Japanese memory maker Kioxia, plus Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported impressive January sales. So even with Kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) stuck in the mud (I do own it), the AI story still has SMH up 13% YTD: I know you’re asking “but isn’t SanDisk (SNDK) really the 800-pound semiconductor gorilla right now?” Well it’s still the #1 stock in the S&P 50p this year. But it’s actually not in the SMH ETF. That said, you might want to hear what JR Romero said about the stock this week: FYI: Get JR’s training here. 3. Software Is Back Under Pressure Traders are still worried about AI nuking software in the wake of Anthropic releasing Claude Cowork. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) just hit its highest monthly volume ever. Less than halfway through the month! IGV had a solid bounce attempt into Tuesday but it crapped out fast as leaders like Microsoft (MSFT) and Palantir (PLTR) slumped. We’re even seeing names like ServiceNow (NOW) and Salesforce (CRM) trade at record low valuations. Salesforce is now trading at just 15X forward earnings: This is a tricky situation because it looks like traders are looking for any excuse to sell software stocks. Even though replacing real software (even crappy stuff) with home-grown AI alternatives is far from easy. Every person I know works with software they hate. But even if they could vibe code a replacement, they wouldn’t. Because no one wants to be responsible for the inevitable glitches. 4. There Is Not Much Fear Out There Countless momentum stocks have been rocked, and things feel shaky. But there’s not much fear out there. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.5% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months: This is in-line with the long-term 37.5% average. Meanwhile, options-related sentiment indicators like the CBOE Equity Put-Call Ratio and ISE Sentiment Index remain subdued. I like these indicators because trading options with actual dollars says more about sentiment than a survey. And neither shows an explosion in put option demand, which would be a real sign of fear. 5. It’s Been a Bad Year for Small Cap Short Squeezes Since small caps are outperforming this year, we wanted to see if short squeezes were a favor. So we used KoyFin to screen for US stocks between $500 million and $5 billion in market cap, with short interest of 15% or higher. We came up with 138 stocks, of which: 62 are up this year 76 are down The average return is -1.7% So on the whole, it hasn’t been a great year for small cap short squeezes. That said, here are the top 5: Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR): +89.5% Cable One Inc. (CABO): +37.5% Monro Inc. (MNRO): +25.0% Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP): +22.2% Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST): +21.6% P.S. Don’t forget the market is closed Monday for Presidents’ Day! Here’s next week’s calendar:
Continue Reading -->AI vs. Software: Who Wins?
What a week. We got Dow 50,000, Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) cranking up their capex, a crypto collapse, and metals trading like meme stocks. So let’s talk about the 5 biggest things you need to know right now: 1. Software Got Nuked By AI Software stocks were the talk of the town this week. In a bad, bad way. Anthropic launched its Claude CoWork app and the world seemed to scream “AI is going to eat software.” The way software was eating the world back in 2011, according to Marc Andreessen. And people started creating doomsday scenarios for AI replacing software applications wholesale. Traders developed a newfound obsession with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), which had its highest-volume week ever. Below the surface, it looks even worse. The average individual stock in the IGV ETF is -44% below its 52-week high, according to KoyFin data. Here are some examples: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): -29% Salesforce Inc. (CRM): -44% WDAY Workday Inc. (WDAY): -44% ServiceNow Inc. (NOW): -53% Unity Software Inc. (U): -54% Oracle Corporation (ORCL): -60% Atlassian Corporation (TEAM): -71% And at the bottom of the barrel is Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (BMNR) at 88% from its highs. (more on this below) Here’s another fun fact: just three of the 100+ stocks in IGV have made a 52-week high in 2026. They are Zoom (ZM), A10 Networks (ATEN), and Electronic Arts (EA). And EA in only that category because it’s being taken over. Is the bottom in for software? My personal guess is maybe. IGV hit an RSI of 14.84 on Thursday. Hard to go lower than that: I bought the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) Thursday because it’s also oversold, and security may be more AI-proof long-term. Ironically, software companies may benefit most from AI. Because AI coding tools like Claude may help developers do more work faster. So in this war… both AI and software may win! 2. Why Hardware Is Winning Now We plotted a simple chart comparing IGV to the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the SPDR® Tech Sector ETF (XLK): This lets us compare the software to the semiconductor sector (a good proxy for hardware) and tech overall. So over the past year, SMH is up 60.8% while IGV fell 22.5%. That’s a differential of 83.3%! You’re asking why, right? To me the answer is simple: shortages are sexy. And short-term gyrations aside, the hottest semiconductor names like Micron (MU), Broadcom (AVGO), Lam Research (LRCX), and Nvidia (NVDA) have been supply constrained. The “we can’t make enough stuff to meet demand” message is catnip for traders. That’s why SanDisk (SNDK) is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 this year. (note: SNDK is not in the SMH ETF) This excitement has pushed tremendous investment dollars to the semiconductor side. Software’s just not been as compelling from a story perspective. 3. Apple Took Over Mag 7, No AI Required I’ve argued that Apple Is Playing the Smartest AI Game of All. Unlike Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL), Apple is not blasting hundreds of billions of dollars into new capex spending on AI hardware. Apple’s also not playing financial engineering games with the likes of OpenAI and CoreWeave (CRWV). Apple is simply partnering with Google to enhance Siri with AI. Simple, safe, efficient. Especially since iPhone demand is rampant as it is. And as of Friday morning, Apple was the #1 stock in the Mag 7 this year, by a hair: 4. Consumer Staples Went Parabolic Of all the major index ETFs, the one showing the most power as of late is the Consumer Staples SPDR ETF (XLP). XLP is up 13% YTD vs. a 1% gain for SPY. Its RSI is at 82, which is a record high for XLP (or close to it – my data set isn’t perfect). That’s also the highest RSI of any major ETF. Because stocks like Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), and earnings winner Pepsi (PEP) have been marching on up. Now, there’s an argument to be made that traders are looking for boring stocks after the wild action in AI, the metals, and cryptocurrencies. But if we look back at the past 10 years, XLP has underperformed SPY by an enormous margin: So there’s an element of catch-up here. Strength in the staples is one reason the Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit 50,000 today. 5. Knives Out for Tom Lee Now, I’m not sure if the crypto market just bottomed. But the hate for Market Strategist and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) Chair Tom Lee has been deafening. It feels worse than when everyone threw Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood under the bus in 2022. Tom’s taken a lot of flack for his crazy bullish forecasts on Bitcoin and Ethereum. But I now wonder if Bitmine bottomed at the point of maximum hate: Are you buying? I’m still afraid…
Continue Reading -->Meet the 4 Horsemen of the AI-pocalypse
What a week! President Trump named a new FOMC chair, the SPX hit 7000, and precious metals turned into meme stocks. So it’s time for the 5 things you need to know right now: 1. SanDisk Leads the 4 Horsemen of the AI-pocalypse Last week, I declared SanDisk (SNDK) “the most dangerous stock in the world… to longs and shorts.” Because it had a parabolic stock price, high short interest, and crazy earnings momentum. The longs won this week when the company delivered blockbuster earnings and guidance, keeping the stock at the top of the S&P 500 leaderboard. Look at the top 4 names year-to-date: SanDisk (SNDK): +172% Seagate (STX) +63% Western Digital (WDC): +60% Micron (MU): +48% *as of Friday morning So the AI trade is dominated by memory and storage stocks. And yes, you know those good old-fashioned spinning hard disk drives? AI data centers can’t get enough of those. The AI game is about SHORTAGES. The bigger the shortage, the bigger the earnings momentum. And right now, 4 horsemen have the best supply-demand dynamics. Because you can’t run data centers without memory or storage. As an illustration, SanDisk guided for Q3 EPS of $12 to $14. That’s triple the $4.33 consensus. And heck, it’s more than Q3 and Q4 earnings estimates COMBINED. But let’s talk about an unlikely AI hero… 2. Apple Is Playing the Smartest AI Game of All Apple’s (AAPL) been criticized for being slow to integrate AI into the iPhone. Which would have everyone switching to Android, right? Which was gonna kill the company, right? WRONG. On Thursday after the close, Apple smashed earnings expectations and reported “staggering” iPhone demand. Now, this chart doesn’t look great: But Apple’s now beaten earnings estimates for 12 straight quarters. The business is 100% intact. As I’ve pointed out 859 times, you can put any AI app on your iPhone. Which gives it all the AI capabilities we need. And the company’s teaming up with Google Gemini to reboot Siri. And if you still believe a lack of AI is a problem for Apple, tell your kids “you’re switching from iPhone to Android because you need better AI.” Their reaction will tell you everything. And consider this. Companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are hitching their fortunes to the very unprofitable ChatGPT maker OpenAI. OpenAI is burning through billions of dollars and facing intense competition from Alphabet (GOOGL). OpenAI is moving into ads even though Sam Altman once called them a last resort. Because they need money. So when the inevitable AI crash happens, Apple will be watching from the sidelines counting those iPhone bucks, not a care in the world. Full disclosure: Apple is my biggest stock position and I’m 100% biased. 3. Gold Went Full SMCI Gold futures hit a ridiculous RSI of 96.00 on Wednesday. It was like the heyday of Super Micro (SMCI) back in early 2024. And that was right before gold and other precious metals collapsed: By the way, David Prince of our Inner Circle VTF® is going to break down his amazing gold short on next week’s webinar. Sign up for it here. As a general rule, it’s hard for anything to sustain an RSI in the 90s, especially a major ETF. Now we’ll see if dip buyers come in with Gold 11% off the highs, and Silver down 24%. 4. Earnings Season Is Going Great Earnings season started pretty stinky with the banks and a whiff from Netflix (NFLX), to the point where the numbers overall were below expectations. That turned around big time this week with beats from a host of giants: SanDisk (SNDK) Apple (AAPL) Meta (META) ASML (ASML) Boeing (BA) IBM (IBM) GE Vernova (GEV) Lam Research (LRCX) Tesla (TSLA) Caterpillar (CAT) Visa (V) Mastercard (MA) Exxon (XOM) Chevron (CVX) American Express (AXP) Regeneron (REGN) So yes, there’s a lot of things in the world to worry about. But corporate earnings are not one of them. 5. Energy Is the Stealth Hero of 2026 Yes, everyone’s still obsessed with the precious metals and hot AI names. But have you noticed the energy stock boom? SPY is up 1.4% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 21.3% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is up 13.1%. Iran is a concern, and we’re seeing headlines that OPEC will keep its oil production pause. Yet it feels like nobody’s talking about the steady rise in crude oil: But we’ll give credit to the T3 Live audience. In our year-end survey, energy was the second favorite sector, behind tech.
Continue Reading -->The Most Dangerous Trade of 2026
We’re coming off another fun week with skyrocketing metals prices, President Trump Tacoing on Greenland, and earnings season heating off. So it’s time for the 5 charts you need to see right now: 1. Sandisk Is the Most Dangerous Stock in the World Sandisk (SNDK) is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 in 2026. And it’s the most dangerous stock in the world… to longs and shorts. Thanks to the AI boom, there’s not enough memory and storage to go around. That’s been a boon for Sandisk, along with its peers Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC). But what’s really interesting about Sandisk is that it’s heavily shorted. According to KoyFin data, 6% of the float is sold short: Meanwhile, earnings estimates have skyrocketed since the company came public again last year: So we have 6% of the float short, while earnings estimates are going through the roof because of a massive supply-demand imbalance. It looks like the shorts are trying to predict a cyclical top into earnings on Thursday, January 29. And the optimists think things can only get better. This is quite tricky. One one hand, it might have already gone too far, too fast. On the other hand, SanDisk could see a mountain of good news next week. Aside from its own earnings report Thursday, ee get earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Lam Research (LRCX) on Wednesday. All are likely to give bullish outlooks on the AI cycle. And Lam Research is a Sandisk supplier. If you’re playing it… good luck. 2. The Silver Squeeze Is Still Raging 2026 is still the year of heavy metal. Silver is on top with uranium and gold also in strong uptrends. They’re all crushing the SPY: The metals are being boosted from a variety factors including industrial demand, central bank buying, and good old-fashioned momentum. And here’s another example of how extreme the #silversqueeze is. We searched Google Trends for “silver price” and that chart is just as parabolic as SLV: So yes, the general public is here. 3. The Energy Boom Continues On January 5, OIH put in the “Gap of the Year” on President Trump’s presumed takeover of the Venezuela oil industry. Then it was off to the races, and OIH is up 21% on the year: But it gets much more interesting when we take a long-term view. OIH is still way off the $935.46 all-time high from 2014. And it’s right at resistance in the $343 area: The kicker here might be Europe. If they get friendlier to oil after very mixed results from alternative energy, there could be a global energy production spending boom. And there could be a massive catch-up play for OIH. 4. Russell Just Reversed The FOMC is on Wednesday, and the market is pricing in a 2.8% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. And of course, the Fed’s forward direction is hard to predict. So this week was a good time for the Russell 2000 Index to take a break after a furious start to 2026. IWM put in a big topping tail Wednesday with nasty downside follow-through on Friday: And it’s not even at the 20-day moving average yet. If next week’s earnings stink, IWM could lead to the downside. Speaking of earnings… 5. Earnings Season Is Upside Down According to FactSet, 13% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, and things don’t look great so far: Earnings growth is tracking at 8.2%, below the 8.3% expected on December 31. And companies are reporting earnings that are 5.3% above estimates, below the 5-year average of 8.7%. In recent quarters, we’ve been used to estimates coming down, and companies crushing those lowered estimates. Q4 2025 earnings season has been a flip-flop. Estimates have been on the upswing, and now the beats are getting smaller. Should we freak out? Not until next week when Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and other indexy heavyweights report. They should push that 8.2% number up. With an emphasis on the word “should.”
Continue Reading -->Heavy Metal Traders Are Getting Rich
Congratulations. You survived the first half of January. So it’s time for the 5 charts you need to see. Though there’s more than 5 this week: Heavy Metal Traders Are Getting Rich Metals won in 2025, and they’re winning again this year. But while everyone’s obsessed with the #silversqueeze, there is another dominant metal in 2026: uranium. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 26.5% this month, edging out the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The AI industry is driving demand for more nuclear power. And nuclear power providers need a lot more uranium, which is in short supply. Bank of America said uranium prices could rise by 50% by 2027, and named Cameco (CCJ) its number one pick. It’s been on fire this year: But uranium and silver are not the only metals winners. Copper, platinum, palladium, and lithium are all in uptrends. So this the year of heavy metal! Full disclosure: CCJ is one of my biggest personal equity holdings. But let’s talk about my biggest position, which isn’t doing as well as CCJ: Apple = Crapple Every time it looks like it’s waking up, Apple (AAPL) goes back to sleep. Look at this mess: Do you need indicators or squiggly lines to see how ugly this is? Now, I’m not selling my Apple because the company’s got two huge things going for it: Android is, um, not very cool The products all just work together It’s a good thing earnings are in two weeks, because we need resolution here. Either a screaming rally back to the highs, or a final death blow. This slow bleed is too painful to endure. If it’s gonna go down, let’s just get it over with! Small Caps Go on a Wild Ride We’ve been hearing about a small cap comeback for years. But it may be happening. The Russell 2000 is up over 8% in January while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up less than 2%. And there are tons of individual winners. ‘ As of Friday afternoon, 205 stocks in the Russell 2000 are up more than 20% this month. And 32 are up more than 50%. We can’t necessarily attribute this to lower rates because the Fed direction isn’t quite clear. So it looks like a combination of speculative juices and catch-up. Investors Are Getting Very Bullish The crowd is getting very bullish after a big rally from the December lows. According to the AAII Sentiment Survey, 49.5% investors are bullish: This is the highest bullish reading since November 14, 2024, which was right after President Trump’s election victory, which drove a massive surge in stocks. Interestingly, it seems that survey respondents are not concerned about all the chaos in the world, between Venezuela, Iran, the President going after Powell, uncertainty on the economy, etc. Or perhaps everyone’s just gotten used to chaos by now. Just keep in mind that timing the market using sentiment indicators is notoriously difficult. Happy times can last. Micron Earnings Estimates Are Insane Micron (MU) is up 249% over the past year, and if you want to know why, look at the power of a memory shortage. Earnings estimates have gone parabolic, as you can see in this chart. This is crazier than what we saw with Nvidia 3 years ago. In the past 12 months, FY2026 EPS estimates have gone from $11.24 to $32.67. Everybody from Nvidia (NVDA) to AMD (AMD) to Alphabet (GOOGL) is desperate for memory and prices are going through the roof. Crazy stuff.
Continue Reading -->5 Charts You Need to See: Nvidia the Value Stock?
We just closed out the first full trading week of the year, featuring new all-time highs, a crappy jobs report, and the Supreme Court failing to render a decision on President Trump’s tariffs. But we’re here with the 5 charts you need to see right now, covering Uranium, Nvidia (NVDA), and MORE! 1. Uranium Is Shocking the World… Again The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 18% YTD vs. +1.4% for $SPY. That’s after URA surged 67% last year. The latest catalyst was Meta (META) signing nuclear power deals with Vistra (VST) and Oklo (OKLO), plus the Bill Gates-backed TerraPower. This is a fascinating point in the AI cycle. Because it’s uncertain how long Nvidia (NVDA) can dominate chip performance. But it seems 100% certain that AI is sucking up a lot of electricity. And insider the uranium mining complex specifically, there is just not a lot of supply in terms of stocks to buy. Look at the market caps of the better-known uranium companies: Cameco (CCJ): $46 billion Uranium Energy (UEC): $7.1 billion Energy Fuels (UUUU): $4.3 billion Denison Mining (DNN): $2.9 billion And the URA ETF itself has just $6.3 billion in assets. 2. Nvidia: Value Stock? Traders and investors are increasingly focused on the skyrocketing “second-order” AI stocks in areas like nuclear power and memory. Former AI Kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) feels left behind to the point where it looks like a value stock, even though its earnings winning streak shows no sign of slowing. It’s trading at just 26.6 times forward earnings. Meanwhile, Costco (COST) trades at 45 times earnings. Meanwhile, Nvidia is expected to grow earnings by 57% this year. For Costco, it’s 11%. 3. Apple’s Big Oversold Signal Apple (AAPL) is the second most oversold stock in the Nasdaq 100/QQQ, based on RSI: That reading is nearing the April 2025 lows after the Liberation Day selloff. Traders are worried about a myriad of issues including a China slowdown, skyrocketing memory costs, and Tim Cook possibly slowing down. There’s always chatter about the company being behind in AI… but how many people are dropping Apple devices over that? I mean, I can use ChatGPT and Gemini and Grok and whatever else on my iPhone. Right? With the stock this oversold and the chatter so negative, perhaps it’s time for a bounce. And the one QQQ stock more oversold than Apple (AAPL)? It’s Netflix (NFLX), which has been beaten down because of the Warner Brothers acquisition drama. 4. PayPal Is Sitting on Major Support PayPay (PYPL) can be one of the most frustrating stocks in the market. It operates in two modes: High-speed uptrend Value trap disaster And now it’s sitting on major support around $57, which is above the 2023 low around $50. Could there be $7 of risk down, and $30 up? At less than 11 times forward earnings, this is one stock we have to watch. 5. OIH Is the ETF to Watch Following President Trump’s presumed takeover of the Venezuela oil industry, the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is the ETF to watch. Because the companies in the OIH make the equipment and technology that gets oil out of the ground. And you have to think these companies are about to land some big fat contracts. On Monday, OIH made the “Gap of the Year” on the Venezuela news. And that gap held:
Continue Reading -->All Hail the AI King
It’s 2026. So let’s dig into the hot stories we’re watching for the New Year. 1. All Hail the AI King Two weeks ago, I declared memory giant Micron (MU) “the new AI champion” courtesy of its shocking guidance. It’s up almost 20% since then with a big fat gain to start 2026. And of course, I don’t own it. Micron wasn’t the only winner on the memory/storage side of the AI trade today. Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Lam Research (LRCX), all big winners last year, also posted huge gains today. Now let’s talk about the the other secondary AI trade. 2. Uranium Is Going Wild, and Nobody’s In It The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) had a monster gain in 2025, and rose over 7% today. The bull market case here is very simple. The world is becoming more nuclear friendly, and AI is driving record demand for electricity. And you can’t have nuclear power without uranium. But the most interesting thing about uranium is how little money appears to be invested in it. The #1 company in the industry, Cameco (CCJ), has a market cap of just $42.9 billion. The URA ETF has just $5.3 billion in assets. And the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) has $1.7 billion in assets. For comparison, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has $37.3 billion in assets. 3. You People Love Tesla We recently surveyed the T3 Live community and asked what your favorite stock was. The #1 name across the board was Tesla (TSLA), which had a stinky day after reporting weak delivery numbers. Alphabet (GOOGL) was in second place, but it wasn’t even close. We also asked traders which IPO they were most excited about: OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic. Elon Musk’s SpaceX was the overwhelming favorite at 65.8%. OpenAI was in second at 27.6%. Just 3.9% chose Anthropic. So the Cult of Elon is not going anywhere. And you can count me in that camp because I’m still long Tesla. 4. Traders and Investors Are Bullish Traders are investors to start the New Year. In our own survey, 82.9% of respondents said the S&P 500 will rise in 2026. And AAII’s Sentiment Survey showed that 42.0% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months: This was the fourth bullish reading in the past 5 weeks. 5. If You Believe in Crypto Miracles… Look at This As we told you two weeks ago, short interest on crypto-related equities like Strategy (MSTR) and Bitmine Immersion Technology (BMNR) is sky-high. All of these names put in big gains today, with Bitmine leading the way. If you are bullish on crypto, you better put these names on the radar because we will see some wild short squeezes. 6. XLE Has Been Waking Up If you watch the energy sector long enough, you’re at risk of falling asleep. But… it’s getting less boring. As you can see in this weekly chart, XLE has been in a slow-motion uptrend since April and it’s about to bang up against resistance around $47: Keep an eye on it. This could be the next big sector to run. 7. Earnings Expectations Are High According to FactSet, Q4 earnings estimates rose 0.4% throughout last quarter. That bucks the typical pattern of estimates declining by 1.6%. Analysts now expect 13.1% earnings growth in Q1. The tech sector has seen the largest increase in estimates, which is no surprise because the big boys like Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) have dropped one beat after another. So the bar is higher than we’ve seen in recent quarters. And the higher the bar, the harder it is to get those big beats. 8. You Can Get David Prince’s 2026 Game Plan FREE As a bonus for our community, David Prince of the Inner Circle VTF® released his 2026 strategy report to the public. Download it right here.
Continue Reading -->Your 2 Favorite Stocks: 1 Cult Name, 1 AI Surprise
T3 Live recently held a community stock market survey to figure out what you think will happen in 2026. While this might not be the most scientific survey in the world, we think the results are interesting. Here’s what we saw: Traders Are Bullish, Especially on Tech The market is coming off its third straight year of big gains, and our audience expects the good times to roll. 82.9% of respondents believe the S&P 500 will rise in 2026. As far as which index will do best, traders are leaning towards the Nasdaq. 32.6% of respondents said the Nasdaq will have the highest percentage gain in 2026, followed by 32.5% favoring the Russell 2000. However, traders do expect at least one pullback. 56.6% said they expect at least one 20% SPX drawdown in 2026. The Stocks People Like for 2026 When asked to name their favorite stocks for next year, Tesla (TSLA) came up by far the most often. Alphabet (GOOGL) came in second place, but it was not even close. So the cult of Elon Musk is as alive as ever, which relates to the IPO everyone is waiting for. (more on this below) We also asked which Mag 7 stock would do best in 2026, and here’s how the distribution played out: Alphabet (GOOGL): 30.3% Tesla (TSLA): 27.6% Amazon (AMZN): 18.4% Nvidia (NVDA): 13.2% Apple (AAPL): 5.3% Microsoft (MSFT): 3.9% Meta Platforms (META): 1.3% Why is GOOGL on top? Two reasons. First, it’s the #1 Mag 7 name this year with a 66% gain: Second, it emerged as a surprise AI powerhouse thanks to its homemade TPU chips. But it’s interesting that so few people like META. Could that be the ultimate contrarian play? It’s by far the cheapest name on a valuation basis: A Look at Sector Preferences We asked which sectors would do best and worst in 2026, and we’ll list the top 5 in each category: We’ll start with the 5 favorites: Tech: 26.7% Energy: 17.3% Gold/Silver: 16.0% Biotech: 9.3% Financials: 8.0% With traders favoring the Nasdaq for 2026, it’s no surprise tech is on top. And gold/silver and biotech have been on fire. So the most interesting finding here is the love for Energy, even though it’s been a major laggard in 2026: And here are the sectors people think will do worst: Housing: 18.2% Real Estate: 15.6% Tech: 14.3% Crypto: 14.3% Gold/Silver: 10.4% The dominance of Housing and Real Estate here implies traders see economic troubles ahead. You likely noticed that Tech and Gold/Silver are on both lists. It makes sense because tech is the biggest part of the market so it always gets attention. Plus, Gold/Silver have gotten tons of attention in 2026, and people tend to have strong opinions on metals. Thoughts on the Fed 59.2% of respondents believe Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. 19.7% see Christopher Waller taking the spot, and 18.3% went with Kevin Warsh. As far as rates go, 100% expect rate cuts in 2026. 38.7% expect 0.50% in cuts, with 22.7% expecting 0.75%, and 14.7% expecting a full 1.00% in cuts. What Will Move Stocks in 2026? We asked our community to rank these factors based on their expected impact on the US stock market: Fed Policy Inflation US Government Policy Geopolitical Conflicts Corporate Earnings There were no real standouts here. Traders ranked these factors pretty much the same across the board. So it’s hard to point to one single narrative that people are grasping onto. The market is torn on what matters most. Everyone Wants SpaceX We asked traders which IPO they were most excited about: OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic. SpaceX was the overwhelming favorite at 65.8%. OpenAI was in second at 27.6%. Just 3.9% chose Anthropic. To Recap… Here are the biggest takeaways: Traders are bullish, especially on tech Housing and Real Estate are hated The cult of Elon Musk and Tesla (TSLA) is as strong as ever Meta (META) is a contrarian play to watch The market is torn on the biggest drivers of 2026 Happy New Year Folks!
Continue Reading -->This Is the New AI Champion
We’re coming off another week of fun market action marked by a light CPI report, a massive surge for Tesla (TSLA), and a newly crowed King of AI. So let’s dig in to the 10 things you need to know about markets right now. 1. Micron (MU) Is Your New AI Champion Nvidia (NVDA) had its time in the sun. Then Oracle (ORCL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) took the reins. But memory giant Micron (MU) became the new AI champion after reporting strong earnings on Wednesday along with shocking guidance. Earnings estimates went through the roof. Analysts now expect EPS of $19.61 this year, up from $12.77 pre-earnings. That’s an increase of 53%. And since estimates went up so much, its forward P/E is now at 7: Many folks are wondering why it trades at such a cheap valuation. First, single-digit P/E ratios for Micron are nothing new. And second, the memory market is extremely cyclical, so there’s always the question of when peak earnings happen. Because at some point, earnings estimates can contract just as fast. But good luck trying to figure out when, because the AI industry is sucking up memory like nothing we’ve seen before. 2. Oracle Played the Best Possible Card We’ve talked for weeks about Oracle’s (ORCL) meltdown on worries over its debt load and the sustainability of the AI growth cycle. But it surged big-time on Friday on news TikTok would sell its US operations to an Oracle-led joint venture. So for now, the market’s assuming the financial benefits of the TikTok investment offset concerns about the strength of Oracle’s AI business – particularly, the dependence upon OpenAI. This may have been the best possible card to play because of TikTok’s growth potential. 3. OpenAI May Be Worth More Than These Companies This week, we heard a string of news reports saying OpenAI is in talks to raise a whole ton of capital, which it needs to pay off its obligations to Oracle (ORCL). A Wall Street Journal report said this latest funding round could value OpenAI at $830 billion. That would make OpenAI worth more than Oracle itself, along with: Visa (V) Mastercard (MA) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) ExxonMobil (XOM) Palantir (PLTR) Netflix (NFLX) Bank of America (BAC) Costco (COST) Home Depot (HD) AMD (AMD) And plenty of other household names. At some point, OpenAI will come public. The tough part will be timing because who knows how far it will be in its growth cycle by then? The way things are going, OpenAI could IPO at a multi-trillion dollar valuation! 4. Biotech Is the Quiet Crusher Traders waited for years for Biotech to play catch-up to the major averages. And 2025’s been a banner year for XBI. Over the past 6 months, XBI has risen over 48%, crushing SPY and QQQ: Lower rates certainly helped, as did strong M&A activity and successful clinical trials. There may also be a simple catch-up factor here. If we take the same chart and wind it back 10 years, XBI is miles behind: 5. Coinbase Is Coming for Robinhood This week, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) announced it’s beefing up its offerings by adding stock trading and prediction markets to its feature stack. Coinbase wants to be a one-stop financial app, which makes sense given its reliance upon the ever-volatile crypto markets. With Bitcoin and Ethereum well off their October highs, Coinbase stock is down -2.4% year-to-date. More equities-focused competitors like Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and Charles Schwab (SCHW) are up huge: Since we’re talking about the crypto mess, let’s take a look at the ETF leaderboard: 6. Bitcoin and Ethereum Are Way Behind I don’t know about you, but I don’t see how these four things can be true at once: The Fed is cutting rates SMH is up 48% YTD XBI is up 37% YTD Bitcoin and Ethereum are down YTD Yet the numbers don’t lie: If you can explain this, I’m all ears. But if crypto is about to make a comeback, it will probably be vicious – especially on the equity side. 7. Crypto Stock Short Interest Is Sky-High Short interest is high across the board on crypto-related equities like Strategy (MSTR) and Bitmine Immersion Technology (BMNR): Now, I’m not interested in playing with this dynamite myself just yet. But if you are bullish on crypto, you have to think we see some epic short squeezes in these names. Who knows? Maybe Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, and their followers, will be rewarded for their bullishness in the end. 8. Tesla’s Comeback Has Been Stunning Tesla (TSLA) hit a record high at $495.28 Wednesday to break its prior record high from last December. That put it up 131% from the April lows to reward the faithful: Tesla’s latest catalyst was Robotaxi hype. And investors once again forgave this company’s unique combo of high valuation and questionable fundamentals. Meanwhile, analysts are still rolling their eyes at the stock. Their average target price is just $395.73: 9. Nike Has Some Bizarre Stats Shoemaker Nike (NKE) got smashed Friday after earnings. But here’s the wild thing about Nike. It’s actually beaten earnings estimates for 10 straight quarters. And the average upside surprise was 37.4%: Of course, the problem is that Nike’s actual earnings are shrinking. So it’s dropping huge earnings beats, but no actual growth. Weird. 10. JR Is Behind Reddit On Wednesday, JR Romero laid out the bull case for Reddit (RDDT). And it’s already started creeping up. See why he likes this stock so much;
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