All posts by T3 Live
Observe the Structure, Wait for the Signal
The business of speculation is entirely unique. What’s required to succeed in this business often runs counter to what’s required to succeed in other lines of business. Virtually all other businesses involve some element of salesmanship. Sales is denoted by its busyness. In sales, being busy, or even just the appearance of being busy, confers to others that you are working. Not so with speculation. The work of speculation is denoted by its lack of busyness. This apparent lack of activity is easy to mistake for idleness; even after years of trying to explain what I do for a living to my wife, she still can’t believe that work is anything other than continuous motion and constant action. I can’t blame her for thinking my lack of appearing busy is idleness, but what I’m actually doing is anything but idle. I spend on average 25 to 30 hours a week doing real work, and about 5 to 10 doing admin and maintenance. Of the 30, at least 15 hours is spent in observation. To her, my work in observation looks like doing nothing, but it’s the most critical activity for my work. I’m observing the market and waiting for something to appear that looks familiar to me. I’m searching for the one setup I know works for me. There’s really only one technical setup that I can attribute to all my winning trades: a long base and a breakout within a strong general market. Here’s my best winning trades from 2025. They all share the setup I like with a base in white, a breakout in green, elevated RSI in yellow, and most importantly, a stop in red: $AGI: $ATUSF: $GIFI: $DAC: $MT: Each of these trades had two things going for it: 1) a technical setup that I recognize combined with the SPX above it’s 8 and 21 day moving averages, and 2) a fundamental theme or compelling valuation. The technical setup writes its own story: there is a negotiation between buyers and sellers inside the white base that forms a price structure with a flat top. All throughout this price structure formation, I’m observing. I’m waiting to see a signal. The breakout in green is the exact moment in time that the buyers have bought up all the available supply of stock. In order for the auction to occur, the price must work higher. The best stocks will show strength for some period of time before the breakout. The very best trades have a logical stop that is not more than 7% below the breakout level. The closer the logical stop is to the breakout, the less risk there is and the larger the position can be. I use a constant risk position sizing so any trade will never risk more than 1% of my account, and each stock should be under 10% of the account in case of a gap down beneath the stop. I’ll relax this requirement if I have a compelling fundamental reason for feeling OK with a large single stock position. The fundamental part of owning a stock is a lot more difficult to pin down than the technical. Each stock from my 2025 trades had a fundamental appeal to institutional investors that made it compelling to own. $AGI’s cash flows were surging with the price of gold, and it was trading at the same cash flow multiple as the average stock when it should have been trading at a premium due to the cash flow ramp. $ATUSF was very cheap at 7x cash flow when it broke out at $20. This is far too cheap for a company with as high a caliber management as Altius. $GIFI, Gulf Island Fab, was right in the sweet spot – oil and gas ancillary services was the right theme, they had no debt, and growing backlog and earnings for several quarters. It was all right there in their SEC filings. I had no idea they would get a buy out so quickly after the breakout signal. $DAC broke above $100 right at the beginning of 2026. It was trading at less than book value at the time, and earnings were stable. I figured it shouldn’t trade at a discount to book. I had no idea the shipping disruption that was about to come with the Strait of Hormuz, but institutional buyers did. They bought up all the supply under $100. $MT was in the metals and mining theme that was working so well in 3Q and 4Q 2025. I didn’t know it at the time the stock broke $35, but the EU was ramping up steel tariffs in a big way. ArcelorMittal was trading at 70% of book value before the EU tariff announcement while US companies like $NUE and $STLD were already rallying and trading much higher than book value. $MT was an easy target for institutional sponsorship. The reason I was able to participate in these moves is because I was observing. I know what I want to see, and I keep on the look out for it. I won’t always get every move, and it’s painful when I see a technical setup I recognize but can’t get a fundamental understanding of the valuation component. Because a lot of the story-stocks in this market are pretty un-analyzable from a fundamental perspective, I have to sit on the sidelines for a lot of the big moves that these stocks achieve. Stocks like $TSLA, $ASTS, or $RIOT can have great setups, but if I can’t get an understanding of why they may be compelling from a valuation perspective, I’ll have to pass. Some stocks which are more suited to my analytical abilities that I’m observing right now are: $BIIB, $MRK, and $NVS. The technical setup is easy to see: a base with a flat top forming and strong RSI. I’ll be observing those stocks as the price structure develops and waiting for a breakout that occurs with the SPX above it’s 8 and 21 day
Continue Reading -->Why 2026 rhymes with 2008 when it comes to deflation
Why a new T3 Live contributor is saying the ‘crowd’ noise’ is different than what the market is saying I’m not saying 2026’s setup is similar to 2008’s. I’m saying it’s exactly the same. The crowd is shouting again. It’s shouting about inflation — the same way it shouted in 2007 and 2008. And just like back then, the market is whispering something else entirely. After almost two decades in this trading and investing game, I’ve come to accept that winning in the markets is a choice. You show up regularly, you practice with intention, and you execute your plan on game day — no different from winning at anything else. But the first thing you have to choose is who you listen to: the crowd, or the market. They’re rarely saying the same thing. My 2008 story of using vegetable oil for fuel… because the ‘crowd’ said to When I first started trying to operate in the stock market back in 2007, I knew none of this. I treated it as a hobby, not a profession. Hobbies cost you money; professions earn you money. My hobbyist approach cost me embarrassing amounts of both time and money. Back then, I was fresh out of college, working my first “real job” as a telephone salesman for a big tech company. The cubicle is a miserable environment — they couldn’t have invented a more sorrowful place to spend your waking hours. I saw trading stocks on the internet as a way out, and it became a mental escape more than an income stream. And those were crazy times. Crude oil was pushing through $120… Cars were a way of life for me and my friends back then — building them, racing them, buying parts for race cars and 4x4s — so we felt the looming gas shortage in our bones. Building a car was already expensive, and driving one was getting worse by the week as China bought up every commodity on the planet to pull its population out of poverty and into a middle class. We started making biodiesel out of vegetable oil and lye, because we knew — we just knew — we were only months from running out of crude and gasoline. We just knew the trucks would stop delivering and the grocery stores would empty out. We knew all of it because we were listening to the shouting. The media. The politicians. The people around us. I was learning to be a trader, and instead of listening to the deafening noise of the crowd, I should have been listening to the whisper of the market. Gold can predict the future of inflation… and it’s doing it again Here’s what I didn’t know then but know now: gold front-runs the money printing. It starts moving 18 months to two years before the central banks do. By 2008, gold, wheat, and crude had already priced in the inflation before it ever entered public awareness — and as they topped out, they began whispering what came next. Not more inflation. Deflation. The most violent deflation to wash over the money system since 1929. Gold’s four-year run from autumn 2004 to autumn 2008 looks awfully similar to its run from autumn 2022 to now. It was a deflationary bust that dragged gold down into October 2008 as the financial crisis hit: Back then, it was the fertilizers running geometrically as China bought up all the potash and nitrogen in the world. Today, it’s the hyperscalers buying up all the DRAM. Here’s $MOS then versus $MU now: This is where it gets uncomfortable. Almost no one who was warning about deflation during the 2008 top could be heard over the shouting. Home prices — and the property-tax receipts riding on them — were ratcheting higher, and we were told they always would. By the end of 2009, property taxes were slashed across the country. Homeowner’s insurance cost a fraction of what it had a year earlier. Getting work done on your house in 2006 and 2007 came with an astronomical price tag, if you could even find someone to do it. By the end of 2009, the market was flooded with contractors looking for any project at all. It’s the exact same story, repeating verbatim, today. The signs were everywhere in 2008, but they didn’t boast… Frantic road-construction projects as towns rushed to spend every last tax dollar that had come in the year before. Look around your own town — see anything similar? The social excesses, too: the Hummer H2, a beefed-up Tahoe built for suburban moms who wanted to feel like they were on patrol because the drive to the grocery store had gotten too mundane. Nothing marked the top better than that thing. Are you seeing this in your town? Now look at your streets. I’ll bet you can’t drive across town without passing two Hummer EVs. The auto industry is writing off its wasted EV capex as we speak — Honda’s just the latest. None of those signs announced themselves. The astute speculator had to watch for them and listen to the quiet voice within — the one that whispered: sell. I’m watching, and I’m listening. Being 90% long gold miners from 2023 until autumn of 2025 got me to where I am today, and I’m always hunting the next high-probability position to size into. Right now, that position is cash. My current portfolio holdings I’m in 75% cash, with about 15% in gold miners left over from my last big trade, plus small trading positions in $ATUSF, $DAC, and $FTK after peeling some off over the past few weeks. I’ve also got a small long-term hold in $VITL and a bigger one in $EPD. As long as $SPY stays below its 8- and 21-day moving averages, I’m not taking on any new breakout trades. I’ll keep what I’ve got, trail my stops, stay in the upside, and run my game plan into August 2026 — when I
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – I Shorted Micron. Here’s Why.
See why Sami shorted Micron here Sami Abusaad believes the market topped out. And he just shorted the greatest stocks on Earth. Get the list now. Sami goes over: Why he bet against the red-hot semiconductors like Micron (MU) and more What to watch for on Monday’s close The problem with IWM right now His #1 long idea, a healthcare play His potential downside targets for SPY and QQQ Learn the 3-step process to “automate” your futures trading Many stock traders worry about buying the top. Futures markets run nearly 24 hours a day, allowing traders to react to breaking headlines, trade the overnight session, and position for whatever comes next. Dan O’Brien, from our sister company Prosper Trading Academy, added a nice little twist to following the futures market: He developed an algorithmic platform that’s designed to “automate” futures trading in 3 steps. Tuesday at 7 PM ET, Dan is going live to walk through this exact process step by step, which helped his futures trade signals show 10X results in 2024 and 2025. Sign up for the live training here.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Nvidia: The Big Question Changed
See the 5 Things You Need to Know here With Nvidia, we used to ask “how long can Microsoft and Meta keep buying more chips?” The question we’re asking now is 180 degrees opposite. See why here. We go over: Why the stakes are high for Nvidia Why the Fed is now the world’s most powerful mystery machine An offbeat bull case for Robinhood The shocking surprise about earnings season Whether people are going gaga for the market And more! Claim Your 5 Days in the Premarket Pit VTF® We’re getting questions about the Premarket Pit VTF® Open House which kicks off Monday morning at 6 am ET. The biggest question is why 6 am? Because we’re seeing more stocks move huge that early in the morning. And nothing wakes you up faster than a stock flying 30% in 6 minutes. Beats 10 cups of Starbucks. The next question is “do I need a special broker?” You should be good as long as you can trade pre-market. When in doubt, ask your firm about your eligible hours. And if you don’t know what the premarket is, skip this event. It’s not ideal for beginners. This is the first time we are offering a 5-day pass to Premarket Pit. Again, we can’t emphasize enough: this is for early birds that want to catch whales. Not beginners. We go live at 6 am ET and end around 8:30. If that’s too early for you, no hard feelings. But if you want to go whale-catching with JR & the boys: Sign up for this event now.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Nvidia Price Target Revealed
Get JR’s updated NVDA price target 3 months ago, JR Romero said Nvidia would hit $258. Does he still believe that? Find out right here. JR goes over: The real bull case for Nvidia (NVDA) What he expects from next week’s earnings report The problems with the 10-year Treasury yield Why gold and silver look so weak His favorite ideas right now And more. Get JR’s NVDA Update Claim Your 5 Days in the Premarket Pit VTF® We’re getting questions about the Premarket Pit VTF® Open House which kicks off Monday morning at 6 am ET. The biggest question is why 6 am? Because we’re seeing more stocks move huge that early in the morning. And nothing wakes you up faster than a stock flying 30% in 6 minutes. Beats 10 cups of Starbucks. The next question is “do I need a special broker?” You should be good as long as you can trade pre-market. When in doubt, ask your firm about your eligible hours. And if you don’t know what the premarket is, skip this event. It’s not ideal for beginners. This is the first time we are offering a 5-day pass to Premarket Pit. Again, we can’t emphasize enough: this is for early birds that want to catch whales. Not beginners. We go live at 6 am ET and end around 8:30. If that’s too early for you, no hard feelings. But if you want to go whale-catching with JR & the boys: Sign up for this event now.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Is Poet the New SanDisk?
Get Adam Mesh’s POET Analysis Poet Technologies (POET) is a controversial name. The shorts hate it. But Adam Mesh nailed it to a T when he came out bullish weeks ago. And he gives his latest analysis in this new video. Adam explains: Why he got long POET Whether comparisons to SNDK make any sense The reason you have to just ignore the headlines sometimes The problem he has with momentum leader Intel How new options traders can start on the right foot Get Adam’s full update now [Confirm Your Email] For the First Ever Premarket Pit VTF® Open House You are invited to the first-ever Premarket Pit VTF® Open House next week. Get ready to set your alarm clock, because JR Romero and his team start rocking the house at 6 am ET each day. Why so early? Because the early bird catches the whale. And they’re typically done around 8:30 am. Just today, the team called out news flow on EOSE at 6:30 am ET: That’s why it’s worth setting your alarm clock and jumping in the Pit with JR & co. Pre-market volumes are insane. The moves are huge. And they come early. Obviously, this is not for beginners. And there are risks because the action is so fast. But that’s why the rewards are so fat. So if you’ve got a functional alarm clock and the will to win: Sign up now so you don’t miss out.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – SanDisk Stinks
See why Sami wants to short SNDK Memory and storage names are on fire. And Sami is looking to short them, including Sandisk (SNDK) and Seagate (STX). Find out why. Sami also shares: Why QQQ is so different from SPY now The parabolic names you need to fear right now Why he is bullish in Strategy (MSTR) A beaten-down tech ETF he like long A controversial private credit name that looks bullish Why he is betting against cult favorite Sofi (SOFI) Get his full report now [Confirm Your Email] For Traders That Want It All… JR Romero’s franchise has exploded. He started with the Momentum Express VTF®. But he’s recently added: A comprehensive Mentorship program A pre-market VTF® for big wins before 8 am A daily swing trading service And you can learn all about them on Tuesday. We’ve been getting tons of questions on JR’s various offerings, so this is a great time to see what makes sense for you. This is the perfect opportunity to see if you’re ready for a Mentorship. Or if you should jump in the wild world of pre-market action. And of course, come with your hardest questions: Sign Up for the Live Discussion Now.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Why the Market Can’t Go Down
Get Adam Mesh’s market analysis The market hit a fresh record high today thanks to the surging memory and storage names. See why this SanDisk-led rally hasn’t been stopped. We go over: Why traders are ignoring interest rates and the Iran war Why this market has so much momentum The mystery of the surging Poet (POET) Amazon’s latest business model change The 2 craziest interviews in CNBC history Whether the Pattern Day Trader rule makes sense Get Adam’s full update now [Download] The Trader’s Bible At T3 Live, we have a full team of pro traders with over 80 years of combined experience. So we created a brand new guide, The Trader’s Bible, packed with the exact setups they use every single day. All together in one place. This guide covers: How to Grow a Small Account How to Scalp the Market Like a Pro Growing a $100K Account Toward $1 Million Options Around Your Stock Positions Intro to Swing Trading — Finding Your Edge Trading Earnings Like a Pro Options Strategies for Generating Income Download the guide now.
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Bullish on Tom Lee
Get Sami’s new swing trade ideas here SPY looks so-so after Friday’s topping tail. But 2 other major index ETFs look unstoppable right now. In today’s video, Sami Abusaad also reveals the bull case for Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which is still down 86% from its highs. Sami goes over: The two index ETFs that look strong right now A space exploration idea that is bullish, even with a sloppy chart A controversial private credit name that can put in a big gain A quantum stock that looks ready to pop 7 names you should avoid And more! Get Sami’s Full Report Learn Charlie Moon’s AI Strategy One of Charlie Moon’s students, Nate, recently posted this in his live trading room: He risked 440 bucks… And walked away with an $18,562 win. That’s a 4,118% return on one trade. Tomorrow at 7pm ET, Charlie is hosting a free live training where he’ll walk you through the exact 4-step AI strategy heused to find that setup for Nate… And he’ll show you how he uses AI to scan the entire market for high-probability trades like these in a matter of seconds. It’s the same process and the same system. Come see it live. Get in the AI training before it fills up
Continue Reading -->T3 Wrap Up – Apple: Super Intelligent on AI
See the 5 Things You Need to Know here Apple is failing because it’s behind on AI, right? Wrong. Apple is winning and it only requires a semi-functioning brain to see why. We go over: Why Apple should stay the course in AI A chart that will give you major FOMO Why SanDisk’s run is unprecedented (Nvidia is not even close) A boring sector that is crushing the red hot semiconductors How we know cash is still on the sidelines And more! Get this week’s report now [Last Chance] 5 Days of Ideas w/ JR Romero JR Romero kicks off his second ever “Sultans of Swing Trading” trial tonight. That’s when you get your red-hot watchlist. From there, you get 5 days of swing ideas from JR, a legend in our town for big calls like: SanDisk (SNDK) going to $1,000. Nvidia (NVDA) going to $200. And a whole lot more in names ranging from Seagate (STX) to Caterpillar (CAT) to silver to gold to BTC. If you did not smash your goals this year because you missed JR’s big trades in space expoloration, AI, nuclear power and others, this is where you need to be. You get: A Sunday night watch list so you have your game plan for the week Real-time trade alerts with specific entries and exits A premarket update every day so you have JR’s latest market analysis Full chatting capability so you can talk market action with your peers A Tuesday video chart roundup And more! Things are moving fast, and a whole new set of names are about to take over. Want to get them all? Go with JR here.
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