8 Things You Need to Know: The Fed Is Dead Ahead
1. The Fed Is Dead Ahead
Buckle up buttercups, because the FOMC Rate Decision is dead ahead.
Following this week's CPI and PPI reports and last week's stinker of a jobs report, the CME's FedWatch tool is pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut.
As you can see on the right side of this chart, the odds show a 96.4% chance of a 25 bps cut. The odds of a 50 ups cut are a mere 3.6%.
But of course, traders are looking for guidance on the future rate trajectory, which feels like a mystery at this point.
But what are equities saying?
2. Rate Sensitive Stocks Are Rocking
Homebuilders and small caps are rocking in Q3.
Look at these numbers:
The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up 17.9%, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up 10.4%.
Meanwhile, SPY is up just 6.4%.
So traders are absolutely pricing in a more dovish Fed.
3. Oracle Stole Nvidia's Crown
Oracle (ORCL) popped 36% on Wednesday after the company said AI-driven cloud revenue will hit $144 billion by FY2030.
That's more than 7X what it will make this year, taking the entire trading and investing world by storm.
The stock is now up 77% YTD, knocking Nvidia off the top of the megacap AI heap.
And Oracle estimates are going through the roof.
According to Koyfin data:
The FY2028 consensus revenue estimate went from $99.6 billion to $114 billion. That's a 14% bump OVERNIGHT.
The FY2029 consensus revenue estimate went from $120.4 billion to $165 billion. An increase of 37%.
We haven't seen anything like this since Nvidia (NVDA) in late 2023, when the AI story was just emerging.
4. The 90's Are BACK
Speaking of Oracle, have you noticed how many 1990's stock market darlings are up huge in 2025?
These are the best performing S&P 500 stocks of 2025:
- Western Digital (WDC)
- Micron (MU)
- CVS (CVS)
- General Electric (GE)
- Corning (GLW)
- Lam Research (LRCX)
- Broadcom (AVGO)
- KLA Tencor (KLAC)
- Jabil (JBL)
Most of these names have ties to AI, data storage, and the power grid, so it makes sense.
Plus, Old Navy is pushing Nirvana shirts and the Backstreet Boys sold out The Sphere in Las Vegas… so the 90's really are back.
5. Tim Walz Took on Tesla and Failed… Again
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz scored an 8/10 with this Tweet making fun of Elon Musk losing his status as the world's richest person:
https://t.co/piZWl3Cl9B pic.twitter.com/m4VAeh3uHv
— Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) September 10, 2025
Back in March, Tim Walz put in the bottom when he celebrated the weakness in Tesla stock.
That was when Sami Abusaad infamously bought 2,500 Tesla shares.
And you know what?
Tesla Tim gave his second buy signal of the year – the skyrocketed following the Tweet we just showed you:
As the proud owner of 500 Tesla shares, thank you Tim!
Actually, that was a typo.
I have 5 shares of Tesla. Carry on…
6. The Bears Are On Patrol
The AII Sentiment Survey shows that just 28.0% of investors are bullish on the stock market for the next 6 months.
This is the 6th straight week of below-average bullishness.
And it's the lowest bullish reading since April 30.
This is great news because it means people are still on the sidelines.
7. OpenDoor Is the #1 Short King
Opendoor (OPEN) stock skyrocketed this week after it named Shopify (SHOP) COO Kaz Nejatian as CEO.
Opendoor cofounder and new chairman Keith Rabois told CNBC “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them.”
Nejatian's claim to fame is eliminating almost all meetings at Shopify so people can get stuff done.
So this looks like a match made in heaven.
We used Koyfin to screen for US equities with 15%+ short interest and a market cap over $500 million.
And Opendoor is #1 by a mile with its 467% gain:
8. This Might Be the Hungriest Kid on Wall Street
T3 just launched its first-ever podcast “The T3 Alpha Show.”
Our first guest is Sam Rabinowitz, a young buck hungry for a job on Wall Street.
So he physically walked to Wall Street to get his shot by holding a sign. This is his story:
ATTN: Serious Options Traders
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