9 Things You Need to Know: Inflation Is Back In Focus
We just wrapped up an exciting week that was all about the Fed. So what's next for the market?
This week we'll be focused on inflation, the housing market, chipmakers, and more!
Read on to find out what you should have your eyes on.
1. The Fed Still Cares About This Week's Inflation Number
Remember at Jackson Hole when Fed Chair Jerome Powell basically told the market they don't care about inflation anymore and are instead focused on jobs?
“The time has come for policy to adjust… The inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased… We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.” -Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole 2025
Well that seemed to change at this week's Fed meeting when the head of the Central Bank paired a dovish dot plot with hawkish language.
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday with the dot plot showing two more cuts this year and one in 2026.
But the Chairman called that move a “risk management cut” and said the Fed expects the impact of inflation on goods price “to continue to build” over the next year.
So that means Friday's PCE Price Index — which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — means a little more to the market now than it would have before this Fed meeting.
That number will be out at 8:30am ET on Friday morning and it could be a market mover if it comes in hot or cool.
Plus, the week starts on Monday with a big group of Fed speakers including the Presidents of the New York Fed President, St. Louis Fed, Cleveland Fed, and Richmond Fed.
2. Key Housing Data Is On Deck
Headed into this week's Fed meeting, mortgage rates saw a massive drop with Mortgage News Daily showing the average 30-year rate hit a low of 6.13% on Tuesday ahead of the rate cut.
But as the bond market rallied post-Fed, mortgage rates jumped alongside the 10-year Treasury yield.
As of Friday, here's a look at where rates stand:
We'll get some important data on the health of the U.S. housing market this week with two reports:
- August New Home Sales, 10:00am ET Wednesday
- August Existing Home Sales, 10:00am ET Thursday
3. Can Micron Keep Running?
Micron Technology (MU) still hasn't reported earnings… why do these chipmakers report so late?
The company reports Fiscal Q4 earnings after the close on Tuesday and analysts love this stock:
Expectations for this earnings report are:
- EPS: $2.86, +49.5% from last quarter
- Revenue: $11.13 billion, +19.6% from last quarter
MU notched a fresh all-time high of $170.45 per share this week and is up over 30% from its last earnings report.
So how good does that earnings report need to be? We'll see on Tuesday.
4. Is Intel the next MP Materials?
Nvidia (NVDA) announced a massive $5 billion investment in Intel (INTC) on Thursday.
That deal comes after the U.S. government took a 10% stake in the chipmaker back in August.
It's all a little reminiscent of MP Materials (MP). In mid-July, the Department of Defense said it would invest $400 million in the rare-earth materials company and Apple (AAPL) announced a $500 million partnership with the company. Since then, the stock price has rocketed higher from around $30 to over $70 per share.
INTC surged 22.8% on Thursday, the day the deal was announced, for its best daily performance in 38 years.
Inner Circle's David Prince discusses whether INTC is next in line for a massive move like MP:
P.S. David is hosting a free webinar next week, sign up here for a special opportunity to join his elite community inside the Inner Circle VTF®.
5. Still Waiting on a TikTok Deal
After a call on Friday, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping still haven't come to an agreement on a deal for the U.S. to take over TikTok.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said it was a “very productive call”.
In a follow-up post, the President also said he agreed to “go to China in the early part of next year” and that XI “would, likewise, come to the United States at an appropriate time.”
Oracle (ORCL) is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of a TikTok deal after it was confirmed this week the company is part of the consortium of investors looking to take over the U.S. arm of the social media site.
Oracle already hosts TikTok's U.S. data and a new agreement could present additional revenue opportunities for the tech company like advertising revenue.
6. Quarterly Earnings Reports Could Go Away
The SEC Chairman told CNBC on Friday the agency will propose a rule change to do away with quarterly earnings reports for publicly traded companies.
This comes after President Trump called for the change in a post on Truth social earlier in the week.
“In principle, I think to propose change in what our rules are now, I think would be a good way forward, and then we’ll consider that and move forward after that.. for the sake of shareholders and public companies, the market can decide what the proper cadence is.” -Paul Atkins, SEC Chair
President Trump floated the idea of semi-annual reports saying such a move “will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.”
7. iPhone 17 Global Sales Begin
All eyes are on Apple (AAPL) as its newly announced iPhone 17 line hit store shelves globally on Friday.
The company's iPhone sales have been under pressure in recent years as it faces more and more competition – especially in China.
But data from JD.com showed the first minute of iPhone 17 series preorders surpassed day-one order volume for the iPhone 16 series.
That may be a good sign for the tech giant.
Apple launched 4 phones in the 17 series: the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and the iPhone 17 Air.
8. The Bulls Are Returning
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows 41.7% of investors are bullish on the stock market for the next 6 months.
That's up from just 28% last week and is the first time in seven weeks bullish sentiment rose above the historical average.
The survey was taken the day after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut and included a question on where AAII members would put the odds of a recession occurring before year-end.
Here's how they responded:
- Highly likely: 4.2%
- A higher-than-typical chance: 26.9%
- Not more or less likely than I would normally expect: 26.9%
- Unlikely: 39.6%
- Not sure: 2.3%
9. Poker Pro to AI Trading Expert – Get to know Charlie Moon
Episode 3 of our new podcast, The T3 Alpha Show, features a former professional poker player who's now an expert in AI trading.
In this interview, Charlie Moon reveals the surprising parallels between the two fields and shares how a chance encounter with a fellow poker player led him to a career in trading.
He explains his aggressive yet disciplined approach to both poker and trading, focusing on “timely aggression” and loss mitigation.
Charlie also discusses his nine-year journey exploring AI platforms and the challenges of finding one that truly works for his trading. And it's not just about money – AI has given Charlie the gift of work-life balance.
This interview is packed with wisdom for both aspiring and experienced traders, so take a listen and be sure to follow the show!
ATTN: Serious Options Traders
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