All posts by Michael Comeau
10 Things You Need to Know – 4D Chess Edition!
What a week! We just saw: A non-event of an FOMC rate announcement & presser A meltdown in Alphabet (GOOGL) on a search slowdown Palantir (PLTR) stage a massive rebound… and another name mimic it performance Earnings season close out on a strong note President Trump assign FOMC Chair Jerome Powell the nickname “Too Late Powell” So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. This Weekend’s 4D Chess Match Is BIGLY The market is eager to see the results of this weekend’s trade talks between the US and China. On Friday morning, President Trump said on Truth Social that “80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.” This is lower than the 145% tariffs that are on some Chinese products now… but it sounds like just another random number as the President engages in what his fans like to call “4-D chess.” Regardless, the market wants more progress on trade ASAP. We already have a US-UK trade agreement, so a deal with China would be a major positive, since it would inspire even more countries to strike agreements. But based on the wacky news flow we’ve seen since April 2 a.k.a. “Liberation Day” – anything can happen. So hold onto your hats. And yes, there’s a CPI report coming on Tuesday, but trade is everything right now. 2. This Sector May Be “The Ultimate Trump Trade” When President Trump was elected, the Trump Trade was led by Tesla (TSLA) and Bitcoin. But “The Ultimate Trump Trade” may be in brokerage stocks like Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) (a name I own), and Webull (BULL). Why? Because the President is giving us nonstop reasons to put on trades. And they’re kicking butt so far in May: Now, there is a tricky balance here. The ideal scenario is nonstop volatility that leads to rising stock prices. Because if the market gets wiped out, that’s when people start closing accounts and ignoring stocks altogether. Higher rates would also help these stocks because that means increased profitability on margin loans to traders. 3. Earnings Season Was Really Good There were two real stories this earnings season. The first was a large number of companies pulling guidance because of the tariff drama – like Snap (SNAP), United Parcel Service (UPS), and American Airlines (AAL). The second was earnings being way better than anyone expected. According to our friends at FactSet, Q1 earnings were expected to grow by 7.2%. Yet they grew at 12.8%. Factset said: “Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages.” Plus there’s more good news. Q2 estimates are coming down faster by an above-average margin. That means low expectations. 4. Big Hate Backs Down Sentiment has been negative for most of 2025. But it’s getting better now thanks to the SPX’ 17% rally off the April lows. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 29.4% of investors are bullish, up from 20.9% last week: 29.4% is lower than the historical bullish average of 37.5%, but it’s the highest level since February 5. Nothing changes hearts and minds like a nice fat rally. 5. Bitcoin Is Flying High Again Four weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.” But Bitcoin’s been going wild, with the IBIT ETF up 25% since the end of March, crushing SPY: Speaking of Bitcoin, did you see JR Romero’s “bloody insane” price target on MicroStrategy (MSTR)? You can get it in this video: 6. Powerful Palantir Rose Like a Phoenix Palantir (PLTR) reported Q1 earnings after the close on Monday. The report was great but guidance wasn’t strong enough to drive an immediate thrust higher. Palantir closed at $123.77 Monday and gapped down to a low of $105.32 Tuesday. And as of Friday at 11:58 am, it’s at $117.25. Retail investors can’t get enough of this stock. Yet analysts hate it. Just 4 of the 25 analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, according to Koyfin. 7. Add HIMS to the List of Retail Favorites Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) also reported Monday – and did almost the exact same thing as Palantir. It had a impressive earnings report that wasn’t strong enough for an immediate push up. And then dip buyers came in with a vengeance: HIMS hit a post-earnings low of $38.21 Tuesday morning and now it’s over $50. That’s a 31% pop. Like Palantir, HIMS is hated by analysts. Just 4 of 14 analysts rate it a buy. So why do retail investors like HIMS so much? First, the company is growing super fast. Second, the business model is tailor-made for memes and jokes. Just look at the Hims.com home page: Every time a stock drops, somebody’s making the joke “order it some HIMS.” As an added bonus, short interest is 27.3%, which means plenty of fuel for squeezes. And yes… the author of this article is long HIMS stock and 100% biased. Some other meme-esque retail favorites to watch: Webull (BULL) D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Lemonade (LMND) EOS Energy (EOSE) Grab Holdings (GRAB) Make sure you do your homework because these names are WILD. 8. Apple Is an Underrated AI Stock This week,Apple (AAPL) said it was looking at including AI search into the Safari browser, just as Google Searches in Safari declined for the first time ever. This brought out detractors to keep arguing that Apple is way behind in AI. But, is anyone ignoring the obvious? You can download any number of AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, etc. to your Apple devices. Let’s do a social experiment. Tell your kids “Apple is behind in AI, so we’re taking away your iPhone and giving you an Android phone.” See how they react. I’ll go to the grave saying that what matters for Apple is ease of use in the ecosystem, and the blue bubbles in iMessage. I’ll let Mark Zuckerberg explain: 9. Disney Just Went
Continue Reading -->5 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now – Gold Is Back!
Stocks have staged a huge rally off the April lows just in time for the FOMC meeting tomorrow. So here are the 5 things we’re watching during this turbulent time: 1. Gold Is Surging Into the FOMC Gold fell 9% after hitting record highs on April 2. But it’s been surging again heading into the May 7 FOMC Rate Decision. While most observers agree the Fed will not cut rates, uncertainty is at a high because of all the moving pieces: President Trump has been urging the Fed to cut rates, raising concerns over the independence of the institution The possibility of Trump going after FOMC Chair Powell after the decision is announced Economic data has been all over the place The tariff war raises the risk of high prices and slower economic growth Today, we sat down with Adam Mesh to discuss the risks of trying to game the Fed. Adam also gave an update on Uber (UBER), which he named his #1 stock of the year last week: 2. Palantir Drops 12%, Which Is Tiny Palantir (PLTR) dropped another strong earnings report after the close yesterday, but the stock sold off on concerns about international demand. Over the past 8 quarters, Palantir has moved an average of 18.8% the day after earnings: 4Q 2024: +24.0% 3Q 2024: +23.5% 2Q 2024: +10.4% 1Q 2024: -15.1% 4Q 2023: +30.8% 3Q 2023: +20.4% 2Q 2023 -5.3% 1Q 2023: +23.4% So 12% is pretty small compared to Palantir’s post post-earnings moves. Fun fact: Palantir is now the fourth-best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. CVS Health (CVS) is in the #1 spot if you can believe it: 3. Greed Just Made a Big Comeback CNN’s Fear & Greed Index has ticked up to 58/100 to land in the “Greed” category. A month ago, it was at 3. This parallels the huge drop in the VIX, which has gone from 60 on April 7 to 24 today: So yes, the mood has lightened – no surprise given the big rebound in the indices. 4. Ferrari Proves Rich People Are Fine Would a global trade war stop you from buying a $500,000 Ferrari (RACE)? If you’re a typical customer, the answer is NO. In early April, European automakers were sent sharply lower on the prospect of tariffs on cars imported to the US. What a difference a month makes… Ferrari delivered an across-the-board earnings beat, and now the stock is 22% above its post-Liberation Day lows: Benedetto Vigna, CEO of Ferrari, said “In the first quarter of 2025, with very few incremental shipments year on year, all key metrics recorded double-digit growth, underscoring a strong profitability driven by our product mix and continued demand for personalizations.” 5. Biotech Gets Banged Up The biotech sector was staging an impressive comeback after years of underperformance. Until today. Dr. Vinay Prasad was named the new head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation & Research, which oversees the regulation of vaccines, gene therapies, and the blood supply. Dr. Prasad has been a vocal critic of the FDA in the past, and the market is reading his appointment as an obstacle for the drug industry. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) fell 6.7% today – wiping out 9 days of gains. And with all the confusing heading into the FOMC tomorrow, we’ll leave you with two words: GOOD LUCK.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
What a week! We just saw: The US and China starting to play footsie under the table on trade Solid earnings from the 4 mega powers Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) A big drop in gold Another victory for Bitcoin Lousy GDP data… plus a strong jobs report Stocks taking back the post-Liberation Day decline So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. We’re Back Baby, Maybe… Stocks went into a tailspin on April 2, President Trump’s “Liberation Day.” Well, we sure were liberated from our profits with the SPY going into full bear-market territory. But what a difference a month makes because we are back above the April 2 close: And we’ve seen crazy rallies in leading growth stocks like Palantir (PLTR), Applovin (APP), DoorDash (DASH), and many others. So we’re back. But can it last? One key may be the fact that: 2. Big Hate Is Still Big Money You know who’s still bearish? Just about everybody. The AAII Sentiment Survey still shows massive bearishness, even with SPY gaining over 17% from the April 7 low. The blue bars in this chart show the spread between bulls and bears. When it’s below 0%, bears outnumber bulls – and that’s been the case for months now: I’ve said it once so I’ll say it again: This embedded negativity is the best argument for an extended rebound. And if we get a real deal with China, watch out because the bears may rush off the sidelines fast. 3. The Fed Is Dead Ahead The big news next week is the FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday. The Fed is not expected to cut rates, so traders will mostly be looking for signals as to what’s coming down the pike. For now it’s tricky to gauge the Fed because economic data is pretty mixed. Inflation is coming down, but still elevated on an absolute basis. This week’s GDP report was weak, but other data (like Friday’s nonfarm payrolls numbers) point to strength. So instead of offering real analysis on what the Fed can do… I’ll just say good luck. 4. The Powerful Palantir Reports Monday Palantir is the #1 SPX/SPY/QQQ stock of 2025 with a blistering 61% gain. And it reports Q1 earnings after the close Monday. Fun fact: Palantir has rallied over 20% the day after earnings in 6 of the past 8 quarters. Look at the column on the right – the post-earnings gains have been shocking: Speaking of Earnings… 5. Earnings Season Has Been Pretty Good According to FactSet, 73% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates. And EPS growth is tracking at 10.1%, better than the 7.2% expected, thanks to larger-than-expected earnings surprises. We’ve seen many companies including General Motors (GM) and United Parcel Service (UPS) pull guidance… but who was surprised by that? 6. NVIDIA (NVDA) Is Back to Superstar Status It seems like 10 years ago that NVIDIA (NVDA) announced its $5.5 billion charge from restrictions on exports of the H20 AI chip to China. But it was 12 days ago. And wouldn’t you know it? NVIDIA has round-tripped the whole decline: 7. Gold Is Melting Down We discussed the risks to gold last week. And it’s been sliding as the trade situation has improved, just as equities picked up steam. Since worries over the trade war and an earnings/economic mess were big drivers of gold, there would seem to be big downside risk to gold if the US and China make up like Derek Zoolander and Hansel: 8. Bitcoin Is BOOMING Three weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.” And Bitcoin’s been a quiet monster. The IBIT ETF is up 18.9% since the end of March vs. a 1.5% gain for SPY. Since Bitcoin held up well during the early April “Tariff Tantrum,” many market observers believed it was “decoupling” from traditional risk assets like growth stocks. It really was digital gold. But as trade tensions have eased, Bitcoin has just kept on trucking higher. And if you follow leading Bitcoin name MicroStrategy (MSTR), you better watch this video to get JR Romero’s “bloody insane” target price: 9. The Bio-Shock Is On On April 14, we saw a Boston Globe article entitled “It’s the end of Kendall Square as we know it. What if biotech never bounces back?” Magazine Cover Indicator for $XBI? Could biotech have bottomed? cc: @epictrades1 pic.twitter.com/STIjdJBo3z — T3 Live (@t3live) April 14, 2025 Now let’s match that up with a chart: XBI has been on fire since then, finally giving biotech longs a day in the sun. “The Great Bio-Shock” is underway, and nobody cares because biotech can’t drive clicks for big media outlets. Last week, we ran a screen for possible biotech short squeezes using Koyfin and came up with 17 names. Most of those stocks – like BridgeBio Pharma Inc. (BBIO), Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE), and Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) – have been on fire. 10. It Might Be a Short King Summer Small kicked off May on a strong note. So could it be a Short King Summer? We scanned for stocks with these characteristics: Market cap between $500 million and $5 billion Short interest greater than 50% RSI over 60 We came up with 22 names: Trupanion Inc. (TRUP) Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK) Premier Inc. (PINC) Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EYPT) Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN) Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE) Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP) EVgo Inc. (EVGO) Eos Energy Enterprises Inc. (EOSE) Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) AnaptysBio Inc. (ANAB) Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF) Intellia Therapeutics Inc. (NTLA) Dianthus Therapeutics Inc. (DNTH) Interestingly, many of these are in the biotech sector – showing just how much negativity there is towards that group. Have a great weekend folks. You earned it.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
What a week! We just saw: Countless twists in the trade war Tesla (TSLA) delivered a lousy earnings report… and then skyrocketed Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL) prove that not all is lost when it comes to tech earnings A big slowdown in the metals trade Outrageously bearish sentiment A momentum stock surge So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now. 1. Big Hate = Big Money This week’s AAII Sentiment data showed massive bearishness, in keeping with the 2025 trend: As you can see, bears have outnumbered bulls for months on concerns about the trade war and economy. This embedded negativity is the best argument for an extended rebound. Because if we do get good news on trade (like a real deal with China), the upside could be violent. 2. The Earnings Are Coming! We have a BIG week of earnings coming up including: Tuesday: Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Spotify (SPOT), UPS (UPS) Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM) Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microstrategy (MSTR), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA) FactSet tells us: Although the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is below recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is above recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. So earnings season is not the disaster the bears have desired. With a huge portion of the S&P 500 reporting next week, could things shift in a positive way? Our own David Prince is focused on Meta. Find out why here: 3. Apple Will Be More Interesting Than Usual As the #1 component in the SPX index, Apple (AAPL) always carries a ton of weight during earnings season. A big beat or miss from Apple can create a meaningful shift in index-wide numbers. This time around, Apple is even more interesting because we’ll learn so many things, like: Did tariff fears really cause an iPhone buying rush, as reported by Bloomberg and others? And does that mean a weak forward outlook because demand was “stolen” from future quarters? Is Apple really moving iPhone production to India as Reuters says? Will Apple follow Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG), American Airlines (AAL), and Chipotle (CMG) in reporting a consumer slowdown? Should be fun… and then there’s: 4. Ferrari! Yes, Ferrari (RACE) is a publicly traded company. It’s been a monster performer over the years with an $81 billion market cap: European automakers have been freaked out by President Trump’s tariff threats. Because tariffs would be passed on to consumers, making European cars less competitive with American models. But if any company can say “yeah, our customers just don’t care about higher prices,” it’s going to be Ferrari. We’ll see when the rubber hits the road* with Ferrari’s earnings report on Tuesday. *we apologize for this bad pun 5. Palantir Could Hit “Lucky” Number 7 Palantir (PLTR) brutalized the bears this week and it’s up over 60% from the April lows. It’s up 47% this year and is the #1 stock in the Nasdaq 100 index. MercadoLibre (MELI) is in second place with a 30% gain… way behind. Palantir is expected to report earnings on May 5. The company has beaten revenue and earnings estimates for 6 straight quarters. A conspiracy theorist might assume US intelligence agencies will make it “lucky” number 7… but we’ll talk about that another time. 6. Gold Might Melt Down Gold is the #1 performing asset in 2025 by a long shot, crushing assets like equities and Bitcoin: But GLD just slipped 4% off the highs after going near-parabolic. Is this garden-variety profit taking? Or is the market sniffing out progress on trade with China? Because resolution could create a massive metals meltdown. 7. The Bitcoin Story Is Picking Up Steam Two weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.” That narrative is changing fast with Bitcoin crushing stocks in April. The IBIT ETF is up almost 16% while SPY is down: 8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing Michigan Consumer Sentiment was better-than-expected at 52.2. But on a historical basis, it’s down in the dumps. And it’s way below post-election highs: So if we have people bearish on stocks (based on AAII Sentiment Data) and people worried about the economy, we could have the makings of a durable bottom. After all, you have to assume a lot of sellers have done their selling because of their bearishness. And maybe they’re done. But let’s slap a big emphasis on the word could. Because market timing with sentiment data is very tricky business. 9. Biotech Might Be Back On April 14, we saw a Boston Globe article entitled “It’s the end of Kendall Square as we know it. What if biotech never bounces back?” Magazine Cover Indicator for $XBI? Could biotech have bottomed? cc: @epictrades1 pic.twitter.com/STIjdJBo3z — T3 Live (@t3live) April 14, 2025 Now let’s match that up with a long-term chart: Could this have marked a bottom in biotech? I mean… you don’t read headlines like that at tops. 10. Put These Names on Your Radar… Since we’re talking about biotech, we ran a screen for possible biotech short squeezes using Koyfin. We screened using these parameters: Member of the XBI ETF $2 billion+ market Cap Short interest of 10% or more We came up with 17 names: Soleno Therapeutics Inc. (SLNO) Kymera Therapeutics Inc. (KYMR) TG Therapeutics Inc. (TGTX) BridgeBio Pharma Inc. (BBIO) Avidity Biosciences Inc. (RNA) SpringWorks Therapeutics Inc. (SWTX) Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE) Scholar Rock Holding Corporation (SRRK) Twist Bioscience Corporation (TWST) Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MDGL) Arcellx Inc. (ACLX) Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX) Cytokinetics Incorporated (CYTK) Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) Moderna Inc. (MRNA) Immunovant Inc. (IMVT) Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (APLS) They may rip HARD if biotech wakes up. But be careful because this is risky business.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know Right Now – Trade War Edition!
What a week! We just saw: Countless twists in the trade war President Trump make the most impactful market-related social media post ever The 3rd biggest up day since World War 2 A crazy surge in gold A big surprise cooling in US inflation A positive kickoff to Q1 earnings season So let’s dig in to the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now 1. It’s Time to Join Truth Social On Wednesday, President Trump set a world record for most impactful social media post of all time when he announced a 90-day pause in his tariff war. The S&P 500 rose 9.5% on Wednesday, which FactSet said is the 3rd biggest up day since World War 2. With the benefit of hindsight, this announcement seemed telegraphed earlier that morning: Needless to say… we should have listened. And we should be following the President on Truth Social. 2. Deflation Might Be the Next Buzzword This week, we had cool CPI and PPI reports in the US, possibly indicating that the inflation bogeyman is fading away – especially since oil prices are down 15% this month. Core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year in March – the lowest level in 4 years. Here’s a chart from Investing.com showing the long-term trend: Next Wednesday, we get CPI numbers from Great Britain and the Eurozone, which could confirm a global cooling of inflation. The question now is “if we had a bull market during a period of high inflation, could we see a deflation-driven bear market?” Traders have been eager for lower inflation readings. Maybe they should be careful what they wish for… We also have the ECB rate decision on Thursday – we’ll see just how frazzled our friends in Brussels are. 3. Earnings Season Is About to Heat Up Friday’s big earnings reports from JPMorgan (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK) and others were strong, sending XLF up about 1.3% as of midday Friday: But the big news was JPM’s Jamie Dimon saying S&P 500 earnings estimates will fall because of uncertainty driven by President Trump’s trade wars. The challenge is figuring out how much more expectations need to fall, if at all. According to FactSet, analysts forecast earnings growth of just 7.0% in Q1 — which is already down from 11.7% back on December 31. And guidance has been bad. Of companies issuing Q1 EPS guidance, 68% were negative, which is higher than average. Keep these names on your radar next week because they will move markets: Monday: Goldman Sachs (GS) Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) Wednesday: ASML Holding (ASML) Thursday: Netflix (NFLX), Taiwan Semi (TSM), UnitedHealth (UNH), American Express (AXP) ASML and Taiwan Semi in particular will be interesting because of their exposure to AI. 4. TLT Up Good, TLT Down Bad The word on the street is that “something” is broken in the bond market. There is chatter that China has been selling Treasuries as retaliation to the US. Either way, the market does not want higher rates (rates rise when bond prices fall) so all eyes are on US Treasury yields. Or if you want to keep this super simple, look at things this way: TLT Up = Good TLT Down = Bad 5. Gold Is Still a Monster… but It’s Gotten Trickier Precious metals have been the biggest moneymaker in 2025, with gold surpassing JR Romero’s $3,225 target price on Thursday evening. We spoke to JR for an update on gold. He said “We need to see gold over $3,250 to keep it going. Treasuries are key. If the bond market doesn’t straighten out, gold will be in trouble.” JR predicted the move to $3,000+ way back on April 10, 2024 – so be smart and listen to him. Want to learn how to trade with X-Ray Vision? Check out JR’s Tape Reading Course. It’s LIVE! 6. No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Bitcoin’s staying power this month is the most undercovered story in the market. Crypto skeptics have considered Bitcoin just another risk asset like a tech stock or junk bond. But it’s been holding steady this month with a small gain despite a -5.1% drop in SPY. So maybe Bitcoin is turning into the “digital gold” people have dreamed it could be. 7. The Elevated VIX May Stay Elevated On Monday, the VIX hit a high of 60.42 with the term structure fully inverted. In other words… maximum stress. The VIX rises when traders buy SPX put options for downside protection. The more they pay up for those put options, the higher the VIX goes. Extreme VIX readings often represent great buying opportunities for equities. However, during periods of extreme chaos (think the 2020 Covid decline or the 2008-2009 crisis) the VIX stayed north of 50 for months. If the trade war rages on, the VIX could stay elevated for far longer than you think. On the flip side of this… 8. Awful Consumer Confidence May Be a Good Thing On Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in at 50.8, the lowest level since June 24, 2022. That date was not the market bottom. But it was close to it. You can’t time the lows with indicators like this – but it’s just another sign that stress is at extreme levels. That means more upside fuel for a squeeze should the US resolve trade tensions with China. So what’s squeezable? 9. Put These Names on Your Radar… We ran a screen for S&P 500 stocks that were up more than 30% in 2024, which are down more than 20% in 2025. We can up with 23 names: Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) Tesla Inc. (TSLA) United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) Arista Networks Inc (ANET) Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) Synchrony Financial (SYF) Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) NetApp Inc. (NTAP) PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) ServiceNow Inc. (NOW) Blackstone Inc. (BX) Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets. And by “fun,” we mean miserable. Unless you were short. President Trump tossing a major “chaos bomb” into the market with his aggressive Tariff announcement on Thursday China firing back with a 34% tariff on US-made goods Vietnam and Thailand signaling they will play ball with Trump on Tariffs QQQ entering bear-market territory with a 20% decline off the highs Newsmax (NMAX) going public on Monday and becoming a meme stock on Tuesday Gold hitting record highs And MORE! So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Freakin’ Now! 1. QQQ Enters Bear Market Territory Mag7 stocks have been a total mess in 2025, officially becoming the “Lag7.” And QQQ officially entered bear market territory by falling 20% off the highs on midday Friday. It definitely ain’t 2023 or 2024 anymore! As of Friday at 1:04 pm ET, just one stock in QQQ had a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 60 – Exelon Corporation (EXC). The small caps are even messier, with IWM over 26% from its highs. Need insights on navigating times like this? Check out The 7 Unbreakable Rules of Bear Market Trading by David Prince of Inner Circle. 2. CPI Could Create Pandemonium, Consumer Sentiment Could Signal Misery Inflation has moderated in recent months, as you can see on the chart of the YoY Core CPI: Traders want more of this to give the Fed ample room to cut rates. Markets are pricing in: 4 rate cuts this year 35% probability of a 25 bps cut at the May 7 Fed meeting 100% probability of easing at the June meeting Traders are worried about stagflation – stagnating economic growth and high inflation. Because tariffs could hurt growth and increase inflation at the same time. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects tariffs to increase inflation and hurt growth. Hard economic data has been decent as of late. The March NFP and ADP employment numbers were solid, as was Q4 GDP. A hot CPI number on Thursday would be a disaster. On Friday, we get the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment number. Readings have been dropping like a rock all year. A continued drop may be a good thing for traders — since major collapses in Consumer Sentiment tend to correspond with stock market bottoms. 3. Earnings Season Kicks Off with the Banks We get the first taste of Q1 earnings season with JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reporting Friday. Expectations are low. FactSet tells us that 107 S&P 500 companies issued Q1 guidance, with 68 leaning negative. That’s 64%, above the 5-year average of 57%. And most of the weakness is in tech. But guidance is likely to get even worse thanks to all the tariff uncertainty. Because companies want to keep expectations as low as possible to set the stage for positive earnings surprises. The banks are key because they’ll give us insights into housing and the overall consumer picture – a good companion to the Michigan Sentiment report. 4. Gold Had a Monster “Sell the News” Gold hit record highs on Thursday on President Trump’s tariff announcement. But then it sold off. Hard. Traders have been asking whether gold’s surprising surge in 2025 was a sign of trouble to come. In hindsight, that looks right. If the tariff situation cools off, gold may flat-out collapse. 5. NVIDIA Could be a Value Stock If you loved NVIDIA (NVDA) at 70 times earnings… do you like it as 21 times earnings? NVIDIA was the leading megacap tech growth stock of 2023 and 2024. Could be the greatest value stock of 2025? Tough to say. Especially because traders want a big earnings report and strong guidance from this semiconductor leader. The problem is that NVIDIA won’t report earnings again until May. 6. Nike May Be the Tariff Bellwether Nike (NKE) was devastated on Thursday and Friday because the new Tariffs will hit the company’s supply chain, particularly in Vietnam. On Friday, Nike broke its pandemic low, and then rebounded hard when Vietnam signaled it would strike a tariff deal with the US. If more dip buyers come in hard, that could mean the market is looking past the near-term pain of the Tariff storm. Also see: Lululemon (LULU) and Deckers (DECK). 7. Sentiment Is Rock Bottom Negative 61.9% of investors are bearish for the next 6 months, according to AAII Sentiment. This is the 3rd highest bearish reading in history, behind: March 5, 2009: 70.3% at height of housing crisis October 19, 1990: 67.0% bc of Iraq’s Invasion of Kuwait, surging oil prices, and a US recession. These extreme readings happened right at market bottoms. But in fairness, in those cases, the markets were down much further off highs. And this 61.9% bearish number was calculated BEFORE the Trump Tariff news hit. 8. NewsMax Could Implode Newsmax (NMAX) has a high valuation and big losses. Not a great recipe for outperformance in this market. The stock opened at $14 when it IPO’d on Monday. And it hit $265 on Tuesday. On Wednesday at 1:15 pm ET, Adam Mesh announced he was shorting the stock. The stock was around $121 when this live stream started… and just an hour later it was at $67. And on Thursday it hit a low of $40. This is not a great environment for super-risky speculative names. So Newsmax should have a rough time going forward. 9. Bitcoin May Be Decoupling from US Equities Scott Redler pointed out this week that Bitcoin looks like it may be decoupling from SPY. We are being very selective with the starting point on this chart. Still – Bitcoin’s staying power has been remarkable during a sloppy era for risk assets. 10. You Should Learn from Paul Tudor Jones We’re hard at work expanding our Learning Center, and you should check out our latest piece. 10 Trading Tips from Paul Tudor Jones –
Continue Reading -->Stock Market Preview: 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets that included: Broad weakness in equities & cryptocurrencies Momentum in precious metals A bizarre array of tariff headlines A slightly hot PCE report A head-scratching IPO in CoreWeave (CRWV) So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week. 1. The April 2 Tariff Deadline Is About to Hit Like a Sledgehammer The Trump administration will hand down new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which the President called “Liberation Day.” Of course, we’ve been seeing conflicting headlines, and that should continue into Wednesday. Bulls are hoping for a last-minute compromise. And bears are hoping for… disaster? 2. Tesla Powered Up, But It’s Not Bulletproof Sami Abusaad made major headlines when he announced he bought 2,500 shares of Tesla (TSLA) at $235: He made his buy right after Minnesota Governor Tim Walz infamously laughed at Tesla stock declining. We checked in with Sami to get his current take on Tesla stock. He told us, “while there is potential upside to $342, I have a stop in around $250.” If Tesla drops to $250 and he exits, he’d still gain $37,500 from his $235 entry.” Not a bad worst-case scenario, right? He’s a bull – but as a top pro trader, he understands things can go against him. P.S Are You Joining Sami’s Mentorship? Just 1 Spot Is Left Reviews are in for Sami Abusaad and James Young’s Pristine Mentorship. 2 Spots Left in Sami Abusaad & James Young’s Pristine Mentorship Program Are you a new trader going all in? An experienced trader that wants to put it all together? There are just 32 spots left in Sami Abusaad’s Pristine Mentorship Program. Here’s a small taste of the feedback… pic.twitter.com/9OSNoQjk2B — T3 Live (@t3live) March 28, 2025 1 spot is left. If you are interested in joining, go here now. 3. CoreWeave May Put a Bottom in the Semis “AI Hyperscaler” CoreWeave (CRWV) went public on Friday. Back in July 2024 at the peak of Nvidia (NVDA)-led AI fever, there would have been unlimited demand for the CoreWeave deal. But CoreWeave had to lower its IPO price and size because of weak demand. David Prince of Inner Circle explained all the problems with the deal: But it’s worth asking: did the hatred for CoreWeave create a bottom in beaten-down semiconductor and AI stocks? We may find out Monday. 4. Gold and Silver Are Still Flying High JR Romero of our Momentum Express VTF® has been a huge gold and silver bull. So… he’s been right. GLD and SLV are destroying SPY this year: If you’re looking for momentum, it’s in the metals. 5. There Are Stress Fractures Out There Sentiment indicators imply traders and investors are feeling stressed headed into next week. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 22, indicating Extreme Fear. Meanwhile, the AAII sentiment survey showed a lift in bullishness this week. However, bullishness has been below average every week since January 29. Is there enough negativity headed into the April 2 Tariff Deadline? Maybe not. 6. How’s the Job Market? Consumer sentiment is on the decline as the word “stagflation” is starting to enter traders’ mouths. On Wednesday, we get the ADP Nonfarm Employment Report, followed by Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. While the “soft” data (like consumer sentiment) has been in the dumps, the “hard” data like jobs data remain steady. These two key March data points will help us figure out if there’s a change. 7. Is Ferrari Invincible? Ferrari (RACE) has been one of the all-time great sleeper growth stocks. It’s up 726% since its 2015 IPO, crushing SPY by more than 3X: On Thursday, the company said it would raise prices by up to 10% in the US because of the Trump auto tariffs. And the stock ripped on Friday. We’ve seen all sorts of consumer stocks like Lululemon (LULU) and Nike (NKE) get hit hard. Can the ultra-luxury Ferrari brand buck the trend? Keep it on the radar. Because its status-focused customers may look at a 10% price hike and say “who cares?” 8. China Needs to Step Up FXI rallied 35% from the January lows to the mid-March highs. But it’s out of gas: This chart is looking uglier and uglier. It’s time for buyers to step up. 9. Cannabis Can’t Get High If you think the semis and China names are in trouble… they’ve got nothing on the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) which is down 33% in 2025 after falling 46% last year. Here’s a lifetime chart of this troubled ETF – a crystal-clear example of why you should not get attached to a sector or stock: This will be the buy of a lifetime… someday. 10. Yes, You Can Learn From Paul Tudor Jones Step back into the 1980’s and learn how the legendary Paul Tudor Jones got it done back in the day. Amazing stuff. They don’t make ’em like this anymore.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets that included: A “chaotic for most, fun for some” FOMC day Yet another Nike (NKE) earnings bomb A Friday “stick save” by the bulls Strength in energy and banks Weakness in semiconductors & crypto currencies So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week. Click the calendar for an events listing: 1. A Trump Tariff News Storm The Trump administration will hand down new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which the President called “Liberation Day.” Of course, we’re likely to see a storm of conflicting headlines over the next week. Do we get a fast compromise at the last minute? Or does everyone play hardball? There are almost too many scenarios to consider… 2. The Tim Walz Tesla Bottom? Sami Abusaad is bullish on Tesla (TSLA), having recently bought 2,500 shares of the stock. But Minnesota Governor and former VP candidate Tim Walz took the other side of the trade by cheering Tesla’s slide off the highs: If you need a little boost during the day, check out Tesla stock 📉 pic.twitter.com/KBEh6pOZLW — Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) March 19, 2025 Yes, that was a real video. Not AI. An American politician celebrated American investors losing money in an American company. In public. Tesla employs many thousands of Americans, with a significant employee base in Tim Walz’ state of Minnesota. Which begs the question — could this cheap publicity stunt mark a bottom? Because the stock’s rallied $20+ since then. Maybe we can start calling him “Tesla Tim.” What do you think? 3. PCE Price Index & GDP Report = Stagflation? The FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference dominated the news flow this past week. The Fed kept rates steady as expected, while lowering its GDP growth forecast and increasing its PCE Price Index inflation projection. And this coming week, we get the final Q4 GDP number (Thursday) and the February PCE Price Index Reports (Friday). The Fed doesn’t have the best forecasting track record in the world. So traders are eager to see if actual numbers are in-line with the Fed’s outlook. Remember, stagflation is a major concern right now as the US economy slows. We do not need numbers pointing in that direction. 4. KB Home (KBH) Earnings + Home Sales Data Will Tell Us About Housing Homebuilder KB Home (KBH) reports Monday and will give us more insights on the housing market. Lennar (LEN) took a hit on Friday after warning that high interest rates, stubborn inflation, and a limited home supply are hurting the housing market. We’ll also see New Home Sales data on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday. On a related note, our own David Prince of Inner Circle is predicting major turmoil in housing. 5. The Consumer Confidence Question May Be Answered On Tuesday, we get CB Consumer Confidence for March. With volatile stock markets, the April 2 tariff deadline approaching, and a lot of questions over the direction of inflation — how will consumers react? Nike’s (NKE) guidance didn’t exactly inspire… but it’s been quite a while since that company had anything good to say. Interestingly, Lululemon (LULU) reports Thursday and might be a decent gauge of consumer spending on the high end. 6. A Crypto Bull Could Run the SEC On Thursday, SEC Chair Nominee Paul Atkins will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Atkins is a big advocate for digital assets like Bitcoin — a big initiative for President Trump. Bitcoin is way off the post-election highs: If the Senate Banking Committee advances Atkins, the door opens for a vote to confirm his nomination. The big question is — can Bitcoin actually hold up on that good news? 7. There Is Brute Force Strength in The Metals The most under covered story in financial markets this year has been the rise in commodities – especially the metals. While the SPY is down 4% YTD, commodities have been skyrocketing, as you can see in the chart: Natural gas, gold, silver, copper, and plenty of other commodities have been ripping this year. The metals in particular are suddenly getting attention now that Gold passed the $3,000 mark — something JR Romero predicted early last year. Are the metals being stockpiled in advance of global financial chaos? That’s a big, big question. 8. Traders Might Get Less Miserable Based on sentiment indicators like the AAII Sentiment Survey and CNN Fear & Greed Index, traders are in a pretty rotten mood: The AAII data has been shockingly bearish for 4 straight weeks. Could traders be too pessimistic into the April 2 Tariff deadlines? That’s another big consideration. The VIX Curve was even recently inverted, though that’s resolved itself as equity markets stabilized. 9. Growth Stocks Could Lift the Mood Growth names have been under fire. The average QQQ stock is 22% off its 52-week high. The two flagships – Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR) – reversed hard off their morning lows Friday. If they continue higher, that could be a big mood enhancer for beaten-down bulls. Robinhood (HOOD), AppLovin (APP), and Reddit (RDDT) are others to watch here. 10. China Needs to Step Up Chinese stocks like Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) were hot… until they weren’t. Did that hot trade get overcrowded? FXI has pulled back less than 10% so far. Let’s see if dip buyers step up.
Continue Reading -->Are the Fearless Bulls Slipping? What’s on Tap June 26-30, 2023
First, sign up for this week’s special events! How to Trade the Open With Sami Abusaad Chat With a Pro Trader With Andrew Moss Now use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Slippin’The June SurgeBulls Still Have No FearThe Calendar Picks UpSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Slowing?Industry Insights from Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week in Review: Slippin’After 5 weeks up, the market finally took a breather with the 4 horsemen ETFs all slipping. Fed Chair Powell came out hawkish again on Wednesday, saying inflation is “well above” where it needs to be. He also said “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.” Tech and housing stocks have raged higher this year, implying that traders have been gearing up for an eventual easing. Looks like that may be further off in the distance. The June SurgeNow let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:However, some traders are concerned about slippage in IWM, which might be back in laggard status after an early-June surge. That could mean the rally narrowing once again, forcing the market to rely on tech to carry the weight.Bulls Still Have No FearThe VIX is once again making new multiyear lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:Some traders believe the VIX could be set to bounce, but check out the blue bubble on the chart above. Many traders and investors got burned getting long volatility back then as the market just floated higher. By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment for the third week in a row:42.9% of investors are bullish, down slightly last week’s 45.2% reading. The last time sentiment was this bullish was November 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months later. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:Make no mistake: traders are bullish.The Calendar Picks UpWe’re coming off a pretty light week data-wise but things get busy next week:Monday 6/26: Dallas Fed Mfg Business IndexTuesday 6/27: Durable Goods, Redbook, House Price Index, S&P/GS HPI Composite, New Home Sales, Wednesday 6/28: Retail Inventories, Wholesale Inventories, Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Fed Bank Stress Test ResultsThursday 6/29: Jobless Claims, GDP, Pending Home SalesFriday 6/30: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI, Consumer SentimentThe bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, so maybe they’ll get some evidence with the Durable Goods and GDP reports.And of course, traders will key on Powell on Wednesday and the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation guage) on Friday. Some Earnings BiggiesEarnings season has slowed down but we do have some notable reports this weekKeep an eye on these reports:Monday: Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) – cruise and travel stocks have raged higher and CCL is one of the best stocks of the year. Will the fundamentals confirm the move? Tuesday: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – should give us insights on the consumer.Wednesday: Micron (MU) – semis have been on fire this year so we’ll see if Micron predicts good things to come.Thursday: Nike (NKE) – will tell us about consumer strength. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Slowing?Semiconductors are still leading by a country mile this year with a 46.1% gain:However, semis had a rough week. We’ll see if Micron’s earnings report reignites the group.Industry Insights from Rob Koyfman, CEO of KoyfinThis week, we hosted a Twitter Space with Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin. We talk about what traders look for in a software platform, and the role of AI in market data analysis.Set your reminder for today’s Twitter Space with @koyfman of the amazing @KoyfinCharts service.https://t.co/NNXoCfHR5R— T3 Live (@t3live) June 20, 2023
Continue Reading -->The Mighty Mighty Tech Bulls: What’s on Tap June 19-23, 2023
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before you start, take a special sneak peak at this week’s special offer from Scott Redler. SHHH! Don’t tell anyone! Click Here to Access the Deal Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Tech Booms AgainThe June SurgeBulls Have No FearA Light CalendarSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireTrading Insights from Marty Zweig This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlargeQuick reminder: US markets are closed Monday, June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday. Week in Review: Tech Booms AgainFOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s “hawkish pause” did not deter the bulls, while the light CPI gave traders hope that inflation really is under control. Plus, the University of Michigan sentiment survey showed that US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations are at a two-year low. So while Powell is technically hawkish, it feels like the market is pricing in a rate-easing scenario far in the future. After all, tech and housing are booming. As such, from a price action perspective, the big story this week was the resurgence in tech with the QQQ’s up 3.8% and IWM falling behind after its recent surge. Having the 4 horsemen all in green territory despite feeling overbought is mighty impressive. From a sector perspective, we saw major strength in natural gas, airlines/travel, transports, and semiconductors. Some of this week’s leaders include: Carnival Cruise (CCL): +21%Intel (INTC): +16%Estee Lauder (EL): +16%Oracle (ORCL): +14%Catelent (CTLT): +14% Plus, tech superstars Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) hit all-time highs. The June SurgeNow let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:IWM and RSP (equal weight SPX ETF) are outperforming SPY, so the rally is broadening out a bit.Bulls Have No FearThe VIX is still at multi-year lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed a bullish sentiment for the second week in a row:45.2% of investors are bullish, in-line with last week’s 45.2% reading. This is the highest reading since November 11, 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months after that. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:Traders are still very bullish.A Light CalendarWe’re coming off a busy week with the FOMC Rate Decision and CPI, but we have a few key reports on tap:Tuesday: Building PermitsThursday: Jobless Claims, Existing Homes SalesFriday: Services PMIThe bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, but none of these reports are in the “make or break category.” Some Earnings BiggiesEarnings season has slowed down quite a bit but we saw three blockbusters last week with Oracle (ORCL), Lennar (LEN), and Adobe (ADBE).Keep an eye on these reports:Tuesday: Fedex (FDX) for insights on consumer spending and ecommerce demand Wednesday: KB Homes (KBH) – homebuilding stocks are up huge in 2023 and we’ll see if KB follow’s Lennar’s leadThursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI) – will tell us about consumer strengthFriday: CarMax (KMX) – used car stocks have been flying so we’ll see if the fundamentals are catching up with prices. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireSemiconductors are still on fire with a 51.2% gain for SMH.Outside of tech, housing stocks are still booming and airlines are sneaking up on everyone too.Trading Insights from Marty ZweigDavid Prince of T3’s Inner Circle shared this on Twitter:pic.twitter.com/lvWYWm5puJ— The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) June 16, 2023 P.S. Don’t forget to take a peak at Scott Redler’s special offer. Click Here to Access the Deal
Continue Reading -->
