All posts by Michael Comeau
The New Ugliest Chart in the World (Sorry Oracle)
We closed out another fun week in the markets so it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know, starting with… 1. Oracle May No Longer Have the Ugliest Chart in the World Last week, I said “Oracle Has the Ugliest Chart in the World” and it got uglier this week before a Friday stick-save. As of Frida morning, Oracle had dropped 39% from its post-earnings high: BUT… Oracle staged a powerful rally on Friday to end the day green. Trend change? Who knows. But for now, Oracle no longer has the ugliest chart in the world. Full disclosure: I went long Oracle (ORCL) calls Thursday and got out the same day for a loss. So I completely missed the Friday rebound. My bottom-fishing grade for the week is an F-. 2. But Oracle Has Competition… The major indices are just a few percentage points off their all-time highs, thanks to stability in the banks plus a few select index superheavyweights like Apple (AAPL). But below the surface, things are quite nasty, especially for super-speculative growth stocks. We’ve extensively covered the boom in low revenue, high valuation stocks like Oklo (OKLO) and IonQ (IONQ). They are no longer flying high. Many of these names have fallen more than 50% from their highs, like: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR): -78% Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): -73% Rigetti Computing (RGTI): -59% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): -53% Oklo (OKLO): -49% Pony AI (PONY): -47% IONQ (IONQ): -47% So based on these numbers… BMNR is the ugliest of them all: 3. Expect an Assault on Tom Lee, Owner of the Ugliest Chart in the World The media loves to build up heroes and then tear them down. It happened from 2000 to 2022 with Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, who heads up the iconic ARKK ETF. The knives are about to come out for Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who has been the biggest public face of this equity and crypto bull market. Lee is Chairman of crypto treasury name Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which is cratering: If this bull market is indeed done, Tom Lee will be the #1 scapegoat for people taking too much risk. 4. Remember Microstrategy Crypto currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have also been taken to the woodshed. One of the biggest stories of the week was Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark with authority. And as you’d expect, related equities got smashed. We took a 3-year lookback at Bitcoin vs. the artist formerly known as MicroStrategy – Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR): MicroStrategy, I mean Strategy, used to trade at a massive premium to its underlying Bitcoin holdings. And as such, Strategy has been playing massive downside catch-up to Bitcoin itself. No mas. The love story is over. 5. Fed, Schmed When Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed, the dovish mood soured fast. Now the CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 43.6% chance of a December rate cut. That’s down from 66.9% last week, and 94.4% a month ago. So if you’ve wondered why rate-sensitive speculative stocks have been slapped around, this is it. 6. Biotech and Health Care Have RULED Biotech and Health Care have lagged the major indices for years. As traders and investors rotated out of tech and high-growth names, biotech and health care have shined in Q4: Biotech (XBI) is up 16% while Health Care (XLV) popped 12%. While SPY is barely green. So Jim Cramer was right. There really is always a bull market somewhere. 7. Sentiment Has Shifted Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 31.6% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months. This is well below the long-term average of 37.5%. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment is at 49.1%. Investors have not been this bearish since September 10. And it makes sense, with all the meltdowns we’re seeing. If things stay weak, sentiment still has plenty of room to deteriorate further. 8. The VIX Is Nowhere Near Extreme The VIX is up in reaction to the rise in volatility. But it’s nowhere near extreme, like in April when we had the big post-Liberation Day tariff meltdown. And the VIX isn’t even close to the peak in mid-October, when regional bank worries were at the forefront: 9. Apple Is Made of Steel As noted above, Apple’s (AAPL) shocking stability has helped keep the indices elevated. It’s the only Mag 7 stock that’s positive in November: But why? Well, we’re past what was a pretty strong earnings report. And AI names have been getting trashed. So Apple’s supposed failure in AI is now a benefit. By the way, Apple is an AI superpower. Because people can download apps onto their Apple devices. And voilà! Meanwhile, try telling your kids they have to switch to Android. And see how fast they cry. 10. If Your Account Is Small, Try Options If your account is on the small side and you’re looking to build up to a bigger stake, it’s time to consider options. David Prince of the Inner Circle VTF® explains why:
Continue Reading -->The Ugliest Chart in the World
We closed out another fun week in the markets so it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know, starting with… 1. Oracle Has the Ugliest Chart in the World Oracle (ORCL) did all the right stuff. They had big earnings. Raised guidance. Announced a massive deal with OpenAI. But after all that positivity, the stock put in a slow-motion “sell the news” decline that erased that massive September earnings gap: The stock is now 32% off the highs, make this the ugliest chart in the world right now. Meanwhile, CDS just hit 2-year highs. Why? The market is starting to wonder how OpenAI can spend hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure. Speaking of ugly 2. SPX Breaks the 50 Day Today, the S&P 500 Index fell below the 50 day moving average for the first time since April. Why? Well, aside from normal profit-taking after a monster rally, we’ve got a shut down government, falling odds of a December rate cut (more on this below), weak consumer sentiment, and real questions about the sustainability of the AI boom. The party can’t go on forever. 3. No 100% Rate Cut Guarantee for You Fed Chair Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed. And now the CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 72.2% probability of another easing: This is down from 82% a month ago. The result: pressure on rate sensitive sectors like speculative small caps and homebuilders. 4. Earnings Season Has Been Pretty Good This earnings season has had its fair share of messes (we’ll get to this in a minute), but the numbers look good overall. According to FactSet, 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, and 79% have beaten revenue estimates. And overall earnings growth is tracking at 10.7%, beating the 7.9% expected back on September 30. Sector-wise, the financials have been the biggest contributor to increase in growth, with big boys like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Capital One (COF) dropping huge beats. 5. The Collapse in Basic Luxury DoorDash (DASH) was a monster stock until it tanked on Wednesday after an earnings miss. And this fits a notable trend in weak earnings for consumer stocks offering “basic luxuries” like: Starbucks (SBUX) – expensive fancy coffee Lululemon (LULU) – expensive yoga pants Chipotle (CMG) & Cava (CAVA) & SweetGreen (SG) – expensive slop bowls This ain’t pretty: 6. Sentiment Is Mixed Up The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.0% of investors are bullish. This is down from 44.0% last week. And it’s basically in-line with the long-term average of 38.5%. On balance, this is positive. Because with the market feeling like it’s on right on the edge of falling, it’s good to see doubt. And on a related note, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 14, reading Extreme Fear. That’s more a product of how F&G is calculated, and doesn’t necessarily mean the market is freaked out. We can all agree people are cautious at best. 7. Sydney Sweeney Is Still Winning American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) got a monster boost from its “Great Jeans” ad campaign in August. The obvious question to ask was “will this last?” And so far, the answer is YES. AEO popped when the campaign was released, then had a monster short squeeze after earnings. It looked like it was filling the gap, but it’s since rebounded. AEO stock is now up 57% from when it announced the campaign. Hopefully, Ms. Sweeney was paid in stock! 8. Cracker Barrel Is Still Losing Since we’re on the topic of culture wars, let’s take a fresh look at restaurant chain Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which enraged its customers by unveiling a new menu and logo in August. The company reversed course and brought back the old stuff, but that hasn’t helped: This might be uglier than Oracle! 9. Apple Is the King Safety Play Remember when Apple (AAPL) was viewed as a tech laggard because it was behind in AI? Well, as I might remind you, you can download any number of AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, etc. to your Apple devices. BOOM! You have AI on your iPhone. And again, I suggest telling your kids “Apple is behind in AI, so we’re taking away your iPhone and giving you an Android phone.” See how fast you get slapped in the face. And if you look at the past 3 months, Apple has been crushing the QQQ’s: And yes, it’s good that Apple is working with Google to bring AI features to Siri. But what matters for Apple is that the average person has no reason to leave the ecosystem. And no matter how many negative news stories get planted, iPhones just keep on selling. That makes Apple the King Safety Play. 10. How to Trade Like a Red-Blooded American JR Romero came to America with nothing. Then he made and lost MILLIONS of dollars in the dot-com crash. Now he’s a full-time pro trader who also runs 2 amazing trading rooms. This is your chance to learn the secrets and mindset behind his success. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE. But first, watch the interview:
Continue Reading -->2 Biggest Days Ever + 9 Other Things You Need to Know Right Now
We closed out another big week in markets with the SPX and QQQ hitting record highs after the light CPI report. So it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. The Rate Cuts Are Coming Thanks to the government shutdown, we’ve been waiting forever for a CPI report. We finally got one Friday, and the numbers were lighter-than-expected. The headline number grew by 3.0%. That’s not low, but at least it was below the consensus estimate. Now, traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. And 94% of traders expect a total of 50 bp in cuts by year-end. Speaking of next Wednesday… 2. The Tech Megapowers Report Earnings Here’s a partial list of the companies reporting on Wednesday and Thursday: Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META) Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) That’s 5 of the Mag 7, and they represent 22.5% of the S&P 500 index. So far, Q3 earnings season has been stronger than expected (even with rising earnings estimates), and these names could seal the deal on how things turn out overall. So between the Fed and all these earnings reports (plus ones we haven’t mentioned like CAT/LLY/MA), this looks like 2 of the biggest trading days of all time! And oh yeah… we also get the PCE Price Index, plus Japan and Canada’s rate decisions, and Eurozone CPI. Here’s the full calendar: 3. It Could Be Make or Break Time for Nvidia All those big tech earnings reports will have a big impact on Nvidia (NVDA). AI powerhouses like OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and CoreWeave (CRWV) have been sucking down AI chips like crazy. And Nvidia longs want confirmation that the spending spree will continue. Especially since it looks like AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) may be taking bigger pieces of the pie. So Nvidia will move big based on the capex forecasts of these tech giants. It’s the biggest potential catalyst until earnings on November 19. 4. Tony Robbins Is Your New AI Guy I am an AI skeptic, because I question the real-world financial value of all the big AI investments we see. Now, I see that the nation’s #1 Life and Business Strategist (his words, not mine) Tony Robbins is hosting an “AI Advantage Summit:”Now, I have nothing against Tony Robbins. I agree with a lot of what he says. But isn’t this the type of thing you see closer to a top than a bottom? It makes me worry. 5. Sentiment Is… MEH The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of investors are bullish. This is more-or-less neutral, and up slightly from last week. And it makes sense because market participants are in a state of confusion because of: An earnings season that feels all over the place, at least in terms of reactions Minimal economic data because of the government shutdown The nonstop news flow out of the White House And speaking of sentiment… 6. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index Is Not Broken As of early Friday afternoon, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was at 34, indicating Fear. Is it broken as many market participants think? With markets at record things, sentiment should at least be neutral, like AAII is. Right? Remember, it’s normal for sentiment to be neutral when market is going up amid a confusing news flow. Also, Fear & Greed is not determined by a survey, but 7 market indicators including things like Junk Bond Demand: Maybe you don’t find it useful, but it’s not broken. It’s just spitting out what the recipe says. And speaking of sentiment one more time, trader JC Parets posted a poignant Tweet on Wednesday: 7. Do Books About the 1929 Crash Come Out at the Top? Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book “1929” hit the New York Times best-seller list. And JC had the most interesting reaction: Reading this new book about the 1929 crash has me wondering… do books like this usually come out right before a market crash, or when bull markets still have plenty of gas left? https://t.co/M1BqbSZlZi — J.C. Parets (@JC_ParetsX) October 22, 2025 So if most traditional indicators are reading neutral, and we have a best-selling book about 1929 out, and the market’s at record highs we can conclude that… Nobody knows where sentiment is right now. It’s a mess. 8. Extended Hours Options Trading May Be Coming Soon I recently suggested that option tradings hours should be extended, because it would be a huge convenience during earnings season: While I can’t confirm it for sure, I will assume the CBOE saw the video (it does have a whopping 125 views), because they filed a proposal with the SEC to extend hours for equity options trading. According to the filing, the CBOE would add a morning session from 7:30 to 9:25 am ET, plus an afternoon session from 4 to 4:15 pm ET. I guess it’s fair to give options traders a 5-minute potty break at 9:25, right? Now if only Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) would report earnings before 4:15 pm ET so their options could fit into that afternoon window… 9. Biotech Has Been on Fire One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed’s dovish leaning has been biotech. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is the #1 major ETF in October, and it’s now up almost 21% year-to-date. But if you want to see the really hot stuff, look at heavily-shorted small and mid-cap biotechs. We used Koyfin to screen for biotechs with a market cap of $500 million to $5 billion, and short interest above 10%. Many are up 30%+ this month alone: 10. You Too Can Be a Sultan of Swing Trading! JR Romero recently unveiled his swing trading secrets in this exclusive webinar. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE.
Continue Reading -->President Trump Ruins the Party
The government is shut down so key economic data remain missing in action. Is that a problem? No way! The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all made record highs this week. So let’s look at the 10 things you need to know right now! 1) President Trump Ruined the Party I’m just sitting here cranking out this article in peace… and President Trump just dropped this bomb on Truth Social: So China’s getting tougher when it comes to exports of rare earth materials, and Trump is considering fighting back with a bunch of tariffs. This gave traders an excuse to do some profit taking after a powerful start to Q4. The question is – was Friday’s dip just another buying opportunity? Or a prelude to a slopfest like we had in April? Now whether you like Trump or not, we all have to admit markets are more interesting with him around. Real world effects notwithstanding… We’ll talk about The Ultimate Trump Trade soon, but isn’t it odd that… 2) Bullish Sentiment Hit a 10-Month High The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.9% of investors are bullish. This is the fourth straight week of above-average bullishness. And it’s the highest bullish reading since December 5, 2024. So yes, higher stock prices pushed sentiment to a 10-month high right before President Trump kicked us in the shin. 3) Earnings Season Is About to Kick Off HARD Next week’s economic calendar is jammed with key data like CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims, NFP, and Retail Sales. But we may get none of these numbers if the shutdown continues. The good thing is we’re about to get assaulted with earnings reports from heavyweights in two key sectors: Banks: JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and others. Semiconductors: ASML Holding (ASML) & Taiwan Semi (TSM) So we’ll get key insights on housing, consumer strength, and AI. The problem is that earnings estimates have been rising ahead of earnings season – not falling like in recent quarters. So the bar is high. But back on the economic numbers, don’t forget that… Related: 7 Things I HATE About Earnings Season: 4) Interactive Brokers Will Update Us on The Ultimate Trump Trade Leading brokerage Interactive Brokers (IBKR) is one of my biggest long-term stock investments, so take what I say with a grain of salt. They report earnings Thursday and could give us an update on “The Ultimate Trump Trade” – the basket of financial stocks that benefit from a combination of market volatility and rising stock/crypto prices, including Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Webull (BULL). Interactive Brokers should give us insights on what trading volumes could look like in October. That could mean dip buying opportunities in this basket of stocks, so keep an eye out. 5) Fed Chair Powell Speaks on Tuesday Even with the economic data mystery, the market is still banking on a rate cut later this month. The CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 95% probability of an October rate cut. So the market assumes the missing data supports the Fed’s dovish course. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell will give a speech on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) annual meeting in Philadelphia. On October 9, Powell was unable to make his appearance at the Fed Community Bank conferences, so the stakes may be higher for this Tuesday. 6) 2025 Is the Year of Heavy Metal Yep, SPY is up 15% and Bitcoin is up 28%. Pretty impressive. But have you seen the metals complex? We sampled some of the more popular metals ETFs and the numbers are shocking, with gold miners (GDX) up 125%: Silver, copper, palladium, and uranium are also putting up massive numbers. It’s been a perfect storm because of trends like the falling US dollar, lower rates, flight to safety, central bank buying, institutional demand, and plain old supply-demand constraints. 7. Jamie Dimon Made Me Question AI Earlier this week, JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the company spends $2 billion a year on AI. And it’s now saving that much money a year as a result. Now, spending $2 billion to save $2 billion doesn’t sound like anything great. But those savings should snowball over time because $2 billion spent this year should save at least $2 billion this year, and also provide savings next year. And I’m a JP Morgan shareholder, so I’m glad to see this. My concern is why aren’t more companies making announcements like this? Are they keeping things quiet to avoid freaking out employees fearful of being replace by ChatGPT? An MIT report showed that most AI programs have “little to no measurable impact on P&L.” So it’s exciting to see all these mega deals like the AMD (AMD)/OpenAI link-up. But where’s the beef? More companies should be saying “we saved $XYZ or increased sales by XYZ% through the use of AI.” Right? 8. Ray Dalio Warns of Danger Ahead Super investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, is comparing the current climate to pre-World War 2. In a Bloomberg interview, Dalio warned about skyrocketing US government debt, saying “it’s like plaque in the arteries that then begins to squeeze out the spending.” But good luck explaining that to a politician. He also said “civil war of some sort” is developing in the US and other parts of the world. Let’s hope he’s wrong. 9. Utilities Might Heat Up We might be entering a perfect environment for the typically sleepy utilities. We have economic uncertainty, rising power demand, a friendlier regulatory environment, and falling interest rates. The market’s not blind to this, with the Utilities SPDR ETF (XLU) up 22% YTD, and up 4% in October: Plus, many XLU components like Constellation Energy (CEG) offer exposure to the booming nuclear power trend. FYI – I have a small XLU position. 10) This Market Cycle Expert Predicts SPX 7100 Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of The Stock
Continue Reading -->No Government, No Problem: Life Is Good!
The government shut down, but the bulls are open for business, sending stocks to all-time highs. Life is GOOD on Wall Street! So let’s talk about the 10 things you need to know right now, starting with… 1. Small Caps Are Rocking HARD Yes, the big caps are off to a great start this quarter, with 45 SPX stocks making record highs in the past 3 days. But the real story is the small caps rocking hard, with IWM outperforming SPY and QQQ by a decent margin. We’re also seeing strength in other rate sensitive groups like utilities and biotech. Why? Because the market’s still banking on rate cuts, which are good for small caps (at least according to conventional wisdom). The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows a 97% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in October: Now, this begs an obvious question: could the October rate cut create a massive sell-the-news reaction? The answer is yes. Of course. But if everyone’s expecting a sell-the-news… maybe we just keep on rocking? 2. Next Friday Is Now Important Unfortunately, the October 3 Nonfarm Payrolls report has been delayed to the 10th, so we have to wait for one more week to confirm what we know – the job market stinks. And judging by the action in the small caps, the market is behaving like we got an awful jobs number that gives the Fed more room to cut. Or maybe the bulls are taking the attitude that “if the bad economic data isn’t coming out, the economy is actually good.” Who knows? But let’s look at my new #1 economic indicator: 3. The Slop Bowl Recession Is real Yes yes, I know the stock market is not the same as the economy. But if people can’t afford slop bowls, we have a problem. (a slop bowl is a mash-up of food from a fast casual restaurant, usually served in a bowl) Chipotle (CMG), Cava (CAVA), and Sweetgreen (SG) have been destroyed this year for various reasons including slowing sales and rising costs. And I’m calling this chart my “Slop Bowl Indicator:” If people can’t afford burrito bowls, what can they afford? 4. Bitcoin Is Going WILD Bitcoin hit a new record high above $123,000 on Friday as the market embraces an anti-establishment theme in the wake of the government shutdown. Ethereum and Solana also posted solid gains, though they are still below their own all-time highs. Will we see catch-up trades? Maybe – so put ’em on the radar. But do you know who’s still the boss in terms of performance? THIS: 5. Gold Is Still Dominating For all the talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum domination and crypto treasury companies, did you notice that gold is still kicking butt? It’s outperforming both the flagship cryptos with a 47% gain this year. And the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up a crazy 127%: What can we say? It’s been an amazing time for gold bugs, who waited for this type of action forever. 6. The Ultimate Trump Trade RAGES On It’s been a while since we checked in on the “Ultimate Trump Trade” a.k.a. the basket of stocks that benefit from financial market volatility and rising stock/crypto prices, including: Robinhood (HOOD) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Coinbase (COIN) Charles Schwab (SCHW) Webull (BULL) They are having an amazing year, topped off by Robinhood’s 301% gain: By the way, did you know that Robinhood is the #1 performing S&P 500 stock of 2025? And just a few years ago, it was left for dead. Congrats to those who held on. 7. The Earnings Are Coming Aside from next week’s economic data (namely Powell speaking Thursday & NFP on Friday), the next big thing for the market is Q3 earnings season. The fireworks start Tuesday October 14 with JP Morgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C) all hitting in the morning. According to FactSet, Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow by 8.0%, up from 7.3% on June 30. So estimates have gone up. In recent quarters, estimates were crazy low, making it easy for companies to beat forecasts. And S&P 500 earnings crushed expectations overall. Now we have the opposite situation. I don’t like this. Not one bit. 8. Cathie Wood Is Having a Heck of a Year Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is the hot strategist of the moment, which is well-deserved because of his amazing calls. But Cathie Wood, hero of the post-pandemic bull market is killing it. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 57% year-to-date: Tesla (TSLA), which is down year-to-date, is almost 12% of the ETF. So it was a boat anchor hanging from ARKK’s neck in terms of performance. And ARKK still killed it. Why? Because of big bets on winners like Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), Shopify (SHOP), and Palantir (PLTR). Well done! 9. It’s a Great Year for Garbage One of our favorite screens to run in Koyfin is for companies with these attributes: $2.5 billion or higher market cap $100 million in sales or less In other words, companies that don’t even have sales, let alone profits – that are highly valued in the stock market. We came up with 34 stocks and these are how they are doing in 2025: 28 are up and just 6 are down The average return is +95% (this includes the losers) Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (BMNR) is in #1 with a 630% gain, while the President’s Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) is in last place with a 49% loss. Here’s the full table: 10. Options Traders Need to Stop Doing THIS Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading recently sat down on the T3 Alpha Show to discuss what he learned as a trader for Goldman Sachs and on the CBOE Floor. If you want to stop losing big money in options, you must listen to Scott:
Continue Reading -->We Want Rate Cuts!
We closed out another fun week in the markets, and it’s time to look ahead. Because traders have one thing on their minds: rate cuts! 1. Traders Are Still Pricing in Rate Cuts Following Friday’s in-line PCE Price Index report, traders were pricing in an 85.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in October. This is down slightly from last week. But next week, we get several key employment data points: Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Thursday: Jobless Claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls If labor markets continue to deteriorate, don’t be surprised if that number goes to 100%. 2. Equities Are Pricing in Lower Rates This quarter, we’ve seen notable strength in biotech, semiconductors, gold, small caps, and regional banks. That implies traders have been bracing for lower rates, in a classic example of pricing moving before the fundamentals change. And interestingly, we looked at our universe of 30 ETFs, and only 2 are negative in Q3: consumer staples (XLP) and natural gas (UNG): Data: Koyfin 3. Martin Shkreli Put Quantum Stocks on the Hot Seat Hands down, this is the most entertaining video I’ve seen this year. Pharma bro and Wu-Tang Clan antagonist Martin Shkreli laid the smack down on quantum computing stocks like IonQ in an intense debate with Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities. It was released months ago, but went viral on Twitter/X this week. WARNING: you may be tempted to short quantum stocks after you watch this. And depending on the market environment, that may be hazardous to your health. If you’re long ANY quantum computing stocks, please watch this video. Thank me later when you sell all your stocks.@MartinShkreli MOGGED. Shay is in fucking TEARS @ the end. Hard to not take out a mammoth short position after watching this lol.$QBTS $RGTI $IONQ $ARQQ $QUBT pic.twitter.com/bz8iyTORm3 — Zoomer 🧢 (@zoomyzoomm) September 24, 2025 And speaking of quantum… 4. Companies With No Sales Are Doing Great One of our favorite screens is for companies with a $2.5 billion market cap and under $100 million sales. In other words, high valuation and little to no sales. We found 18 US stocks fitting that criteria that are up more than 50% in Q3: The leader of the pack is the super-volatile QMMM Holdings (QMMM), which is up over 7,600% this quarter after pivoting to becoming a crypto treasury bet: And speaking of crypto Treasury bets… 5. Tom Lee Explains the Power of Crypto Treasury Companies A common question among traders and investors is “why buy a crypto treasury company like MicroStrategy (MSTR) or Bitminer (BMNR) rather than Bitcoin/Ethereum?” Tom Lee of Fundstrat explains: Tom Lee explaining why he thinks you should buy a Ethereum Treasury company over just buying Ethereum pic.twitter.com/rHyYCAwLZi — Treasury Edge (@TreasuryEdge) September 24, 2025 6. Intel Is a Star Intel (INTC) has been on fire as of late thanks to a $5 billion investment from Nvidia (NVDA), and speculation of some type of partnership with Apple (AAPL). It’s now up 76% year-to-date. And it would be the #1 stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2025… if it wasn’t kicked out last year. In fact, Intel is #16 in the SPX this year… more than doubling Nvidia’s return. 7. Investors Are Still Bullish For the second week in a row, 41.7% of investors are bullish according to the AAII Sentiment Survey: There was not a single bullish reading from August 6 to September 10. So there is a chance investors turned bullish right at the top. Of course, the indices are barely off the highs so let’s not get carried away just yet. 8. Tesla (TSLA) Took the Mag 7 Lead – and It’s Still Hated Tesla took off like a rocket in September, and is up 31%, crushing its Mag 7 brethren: Wedbush Morgan’s Dan Ives hiked his Tesla price target to $600 based on AI growth potential, making him the biggest bull on the street. But here’s a fun fact: the average Tesla target price is just $336.18. That means the average analysts thinks Tesla will DROP by 23%. Then again, Tesla is an island unto itself and often seems completely detached from its fundamentals. 9. Meet James Rich Young: Trading Prodigy and Mentorship Teacher In this episode of The T3 Alpha Show, I sat down with James “Rich” Young to learn about his meteoric rise in trading and social media. Want to learn from James? Check out the Pristine Mentorship with James Young and Sami Abusaad.
Continue Reading -->Meet James Rich Young: Trading Prodigy
In the latest episode of The T3 Alpha Show, we introduce you to James Rich Young, co-Leader of the Pristine Mentorship Program. James went from attending the Mentorship to moderating the Pristine Active Trader VTF® in a matter of months. That’s unlike many traders who struggles for years before having any success at all. James shares: What made him leave his prior career to pursue trading How he succeeded in trading so quickly How mastering video games like Goldeneye prepared him for day trading Whether new traders have to learn the hard way (by losing big money) How he build an amazing YouTube channel with over 87,000 subscribers The importance of having a great mentor The reason he pursued powerlifting How traders can achieve work-life balance Why you must be careful about the goals you set His favorite Wall Street movie Whether “Rich” is actually his real middle name Want to learn directly from James? GO HERE NOW.
Continue Reading -->Introducing The T3 Alpha Show podcast
Yes, we finally have a podcast: The T3 Alpha Show! Host Michael Comeau connects you with leading traders, investors, and industry executives to provide a mix of education and entertainment. So far, we’ve published 5 episodes so far with special guests: Sam Rabinowitz: an aspiring trader who tried to get a Wall Street Job by holding up a sign Sami Abusaad: our Director of Education who went from bored CPI to top pro trader Charlie Moon: a former professional poker player who harnesses AI to supercharge his trading Scott Bauer: a former Goldman Sachs and CBOE floor trader that’s sharing his pro options trading strategies with you Rob Koyfman: founder and CEO of Koyfin, a leading financial data platform with 500,000+ users Here’s how to find us: The T3 Alpha Show on Spotify The T3 Alpha Show on YouTube The T3 Alpha Show Website (under construction) We hope you listen and subscribe!
Continue Reading -->8 Things You Need to Know: The Fed Is Dead Ahead
1. The Fed Is Dead Ahead Buckle up buttercups, because the FOMC Rate Decision is dead ahead. Following this week’s CPI and PPI reports and last week’s stinker of a jobs report, the CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut. As you can see on the right side of this chart, the odds show a 96.4% chance of a 25 bps cut. The odds of a 50 ups cut are a mere 3.6%. But of course, traders are looking for guidance on the future rate trajectory, which feels like a mystery at this point. But what are equities saying? 2. Rate Sensitive Stocks Are Rocking Homebuilders and small caps are rocking in Q3. Look at these numbers: The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up 17.9%, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up 10.4%. Meanwhile, SPY is up just 6.4%. So traders are absolutely pricing in a more dovish Fed. 3. Oracle Stole Nvidia’s Crown Oracle (ORCL) popped 36% on Wednesday after the company said AI-driven cloud revenue will hit $144 billion by FY2030. That’s more than 7X what it will make this year, taking the entire trading and investing world by storm. The stock is now up 77% YTD, knocking Nvidia off the top of the megacap AI heap. And Oracle estimates are going through the roof. According to Koyfin data: The FY2028 consensus revenue estimate went from $99.6 billion to $114 billion. That’s a 14% bump OVERNIGHT. The FY2029 consensus revenue estimate went from $120.4 billion to $165 billion. An increase of 37%. We haven’t seen anything like this since Nvidia (NVDA) in late 2023, when the AI story was just emerging. 4. The 90’s Are BACK Speaking of Oracle, have you noticed how many 1990’s stock market darlings are up huge in 2025? These are the best performing S&P 500 stocks of 2025: Western Digital (WDC) Micron (MU) CVS (CVS) General Electric (GE) Corning (GLW) Lam Research (LRCX) Broadcom (AVGO) KLA Tencor (KLAC) Jabil (JBL) Most of these names have ties to AI, data storage, and the power grid, so it makes sense. Plus, Old Navy is pushing Nirvana shirts and the Backstreet Boys sold out The Sphere in Las Vegas… so the 90’s really are back. 5. Tim Walz Took on Tesla and Failed… Again Minnesota Governor Tim Walz scored an 8/10 with this Tweet making fun of Elon Musk losing his status as the world’s richest person: https://t.co/piZWl3Cl9B pic.twitter.com/m4VAeh3uHv — Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) September 10, 2025 Back in March, Tim Walz put in the bottom when he celebrated the weakness in Tesla stock. That was when Sami Abusaad infamously bought 2,500 Tesla shares. And you know what? Tesla Tim gave his second buy signal of the year – the skyrocketed following the Tweet we just showed you: As the proud owner of 500 Tesla shares, thank you Tim! Actually, that was a typo. I have 5 shares of Tesla. Carry on… 6. The Bears Are On Patrol The AII Sentiment Survey shows that just 28.0% of investors are bullish on the stock market for the next 6 months. This is the 6th straight week of below-average bullishness. And it’s the lowest bullish reading since April 30. This is great news because it means people are still on the sidelines. 7. OpenDoor Is the #1 Short King Opendoor (OPEN) stock skyrocketed this week after it named Shopify (SHOP) COO Kaz Nejatian as CEO. Opendoor cofounder and new chairman Keith Rabois told CNBC “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them.” Nejatian’s claim to fame is eliminating almost all meetings at Shopify so people can get stuff done. So this looks like a match made in heaven. We used Koyfin to screen for US equities with 15%+ short interest and a market cap over $500 million. And Opendoor is #1 by a mile with its 467% gain: 8. This Might Be the Hungriest Kid on Wall Street T3 just launched its first-ever podcast “The T3 Alpha Show.” Our first guest is Sam Rabinowitz, a young buck hungry for a job on Wall Street. So he physically walked to Wall Street to get his shot by holding a sign. This is his story:
Continue Reading -->Just 31.7% of Traders Use AI, Survey Says
Do Traders Use ChatGPT and Other AI Tools? According to a recent survey of our community… not really. We emailed our fans asking a simple question: Are you using AI in your trading in any way? 379 traders answered the question. 31.7% said yes, they are using AI tools like ChatGPT in trading. And 68.3% said no. Why Aren’t More Traders Using AI? Overwhelmingly, traders who aren’t using AI offered some variation of “I don’t know how.” Here’s a sample of unedited survey responses: “Don’t know how to. I am used to reading charts myself…” “No idea of where to find” “Myself. Learning curve.” “Don’t have the knowledge” “The few AI trading I came across was too complicated.” “Don’t know how to use it” “Unfamiliar how to use effectively” This shows there is a lack of education regarding AI in trading, or at the very least, a lack of awareness. Some respondents also have a lack of trust in AI tools, and the companies behind them: “haven’t seen any AI tools that I think will help. they might be available I am just not aware” “Glitches and potential losses” “Desire to remain off the grid in terms of ongoing info tracking, hacking, etc. Don’t trust AI completely as it’s used maliciously too much “ “Don’t see how it could be useful for me to use it for trading. I see how firms with millions of dollars could have teams of phd’s using it.” We also asked those who don’t use AI in trading “What could make you start using AI?” The answers mostly revolved around proof and education. Here’s a sample of unedited responses: “High degree of confidence that AI is not going to hallucinate” “Demo on how it would work and help” “Seeing how it works and if it works consistently!” “I would have to clearly understand how it would work for me and make money with less effort and greater results.” “Teach me how to use it and implement it into my trading platform” “Clear evidence of consistent lower risk and higher gain” “If I could trust it, but I don’t know enough about it to know what that would entail.” So it seems like more traders would use AI if they had proof it helps, and a clear path for learning. But what about the traders who are using AI? What AI Tools Are Traders Using? We asked traders who are using AI “Which AI tools do you use in your trading?” Here are the most commonly mentioned tools, in order of mentions (most to fewest): ChatGPT Grok Perplexity Gemini Claude How Are Traders Using AI? We asked the “Yes” respondents “How do these tools help you?” The answers largely fell into 5 categories: Information and Research: finding top-performing stocks, dividend dates, YTD percentages, revenue increases, company research, fundamentals, technical setups, heavily followed stocks, categorizations, correlations, betas, news, and summarizing reports/data. Analysis and Ideas: generating option ideas, backtesting, analyzing charts, creating possible scenarios and reasoning models, finding bullish sentiment, custom queries for trends and levels, trade review, strategy analysis, and identifying shared positions among traders. Time-Saving and Efficiency: optimizing backtesting and script writing, parsing information, bulk data generation and refinement, fast and quick information retrieval, reducing manual legwork, speeding up organization, and record-keeping. Decision Support: making better decisions, double-checking decisions, and acting as a thinking partner for swing trade ideas. Trade Execution Support: Finding entries and timing, selecting expiry, stops, and limit targets, sifting trading ideas. And here are a few specific answers (unedited) we found interesting: “AI to me is research, learning, and idea-bouncing without bias or judgment. I upload charts for Wyckoff and pattern recognition help (wedges, triangles, flags, etc.), and I use it to bounce swing trade ideas as a thinking partner — never as a trade signal generator. Sometimes I’ll reverse engineer a pro’s trade I didn’t fully understand, and AI helps me break it down step by step. What makes it invaluable is education: it explains concepts in multiple ways until they finally click.” “Be more disciplined, find stocks, compare stocks, define risk, suggest tier and trim, keeps track of watch list. Logging trades. Plans the news, interpret technicals, summarize news” “It’s the perfect data finder among the emotional outpouring. It’s unbiased and can put together trends.” “Optimize backtesting and script writing mainly with some help in parsing information from the tools I use” “Ideas for investing, and lots of calculations and forward projecting with my Risk parameters.” What Do Traders Want from AI? Finally, we asked current AI users “What do you wish AI could do for you?” There was a huge range of answers, falling into these categories: Prediction and Forecasting: Users want AI to predict future market prices, such as tomorrow’s market movers, the impact of interest rates on stocks, and accurate forecasts for detailed decision-making approaches. Automated Trading/Recommendations: many traders want AI tools to scan databases for optimal entries, set stops, and targets, generate option ideas, execute trades based on user-defined rules, create specific charts with indicators, suggest trading systems, identify high-probability stock moves, and find setups. Enhanced Analysis: many traders want AI to analyze charts on multiple timeframes, plot price points in relation to news, analyze news for trading probabilities, provide solid market analysis, perform trade journaling analysis, analyze strategies and setups with suggestions/corrections, and pick top stocks in sectors based on various parameters. Performance Improvement: traders want AI to improve their P&L in many ways, like minimizing losses, improving trading discipline, findind better trades, and providing a competitive edge against high-frequency trading. Full Automation: some traders want AI to take care of the entire process from idea generation to entry to exit. Here are some unedited individual answers we found interesting: “See the future. For example: interest rates will probably go down in the next few months. If ai could look ahead and see this and then analyze which stocks might benefit the most from this in the future.” “Pick the top stock in each sector
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