All posts by Michael Comeau
Are the Fearless Bulls Slipping? What’s on Tap June 26-30, 2023
First, sign up for this week’s special events! How to Trade the Open With Sami Abusaad Chat With a Pro Trader With Andrew Moss Now use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Slippin’The June SurgeBulls Still Have No FearThe Calendar Picks UpSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Slowing?Industry Insights from Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week in Review: Slippin’After 5 weeks up, the market finally took a breather with the 4 horsemen ETFs all slipping. Fed Chair Powell came out hawkish again on Wednesday, saying inflation is “well above” where it needs to be. He also said “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.” Tech and housing stocks have raged higher this year, implying that traders have been gearing up for an eventual easing. Looks like that may be further off in the distance. The June SurgeNow let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:However, some traders are concerned about slippage in IWM, which might be back in laggard status after an early-June surge. That could mean the rally narrowing once again, forcing the market to rely on tech to carry the weight.Bulls Still Have No FearThe VIX is once again making new multiyear lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:Some traders believe the VIX could be set to bounce, but check out the blue bubble on the chart above. Many traders and investors got burned getting long volatility back then as the market just floated higher. By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment for the third week in a row:42.9% of investors are bullish, down slightly last week’s 45.2% reading. The last time sentiment was this bullish was November 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months later. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:Make no mistake: traders are bullish.The Calendar Picks UpWe’re coming off a pretty light week data-wise but things get busy next week:Monday 6/26: Dallas Fed Mfg Business IndexTuesday 6/27: Durable Goods, Redbook, House Price Index, S&P/GS HPI Composite, New Home Sales, Wednesday 6/28: Retail Inventories, Wholesale Inventories, Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Fed Bank Stress Test ResultsThursday 6/29: Jobless Claims, GDP, Pending Home SalesFriday 6/30: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI, Consumer SentimentThe bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, so maybe they’ll get some evidence with the Durable Goods and GDP reports.And of course, traders will key on Powell on Wednesday and the Core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation guage) on Friday. Some Earnings BiggiesEarnings season has slowed down but we do have some notable reports this weekKeep an eye on these reports:Monday: Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) – cruise and travel stocks have raged higher and CCL is one of the best stocks of the year. Will the fundamentals confirm the move? Tuesday: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – should give us insights on the consumer.Wednesday: Micron (MU) – semis have been on fire this year so we’ll see if Micron predicts good things to come.Thursday: Nike (NKE) – will tell us about consumer strength. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Slowing?Semiconductors are still leading by a country mile this year with a 46.1% gain:However, semis had a rough week. We’ll see if Micron’s earnings report reignites the group.Industry Insights from Rob Koyfman, CEO of KoyfinThis week, we hosted a Twitter Space with Rob Koyfman, CEO of Koyfin. We talk about what traders look for in a software platform, and the role of AI in market data analysis.Set your reminder for today’s Twitter Space with @koyfman of the amazing @KoyfinCharts service.https://t.co/NNXoCfHR5R— T3 Live (@t3live) June 20, 2023
Continue Reading -->The Mighty Mighty Tech Bulls: What’s on Tap June 19-23, 2023
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before you start, take a special sneak peak at this week’s special offer from Scott Redler. SHHH! Don’t tell anyone! Click Here to Access the Deal Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Tech Booms AgainThe June SurgeBulls Have No FearA Light CalendarSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireTrading Insights from Marty Zweig This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlargeQuick reminder: US markets are closed Monday, June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday. Week in Review: Tech Booms AgainFOMC Chair Jerome Powell’s “hawkish pause” did not deter the bulls, while the light CPI gave traders hope that inflation really is under control. Plus, the University of Michigan sentiment survey showed that US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations are at a two-year low. So while Powell is technically hawkish, it feels like the market is pricing in a rate-easing scenario far in the future. After all, tech and housing are booming. As such, from a price action perspective, the big story this week was the resurgence in tech with the QQQ’s up 3.8% and IWM falling behind after its recent surge. Having the 4 horsemen all in green territory despite feeling overbought is mighty impressive. From a sector perspective, we saw major strength in natural gas, airlines/travel, transports, and semiconductors. Some of this week’s leaders include: Carnival Cruise (CCL): +21%Intel (INTC): +16%Estee Lauder (EL): +16%Oracle (ORCL): +14%Catelent (CTLT): +14% Plus, tech superstars Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) hit all-time highs. The June SurgeNow let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up:IWM and RSP (equal weight SPX ETF) are outperforming SPY, so the rally is broadening out a bit.Bulls Have No FearThe VIX is still at multi-year lows, showing that traders are pricing in almost no volatility:By the way, if you want to learn more about the VIX, go here. Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed a bullish sentiment for the second week in a row:45.2% of investors are bullish, in-line with last week’s 45.2% reading. This is the highest reading since November 11, 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months after that. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index still read Extreme Greed:Traders are still very bullish.A Light CalendarWe’re coming off a busy week with the FOMC Rate Decision and CPI, but we have a few key reports on tap:Tuesday: Building PermitsThursday: Jobless Claims, Existing Homes SalesFriday: Services PMIThe bears have been hunting (and maybe hoping) for evidence of a recession, but none of these reports are in the “make or break category.” Some Earnings BiggiesEarnings season has slowed down quite a bit but we saw three blockbusters last week with Oracle (ORCL), Lennar (LEN), and Adobe (ADBE).Keep an eye on these reports:Tuesday: Fedex (FDX) for insights on consumer spending and ecommerce demand Wednesday: KB Homes (KBH) – homebuilding stocks are up huge in 2023 and we’ll see if KB follow’s Lennar’s leadThursday: Darden Restaurants (DRI) – will tell us about consumer strengthFriday: CarMax (KMX) – used car stocks have been flying so we’ll see if the fundamentals are catching up with prices. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis on FireSemiconductors are still on fire with a 51.2% gain for SMH.Outside of tech, housing stocks are still booming and airlines are sneaking up on everyone too.Trading Insights from Marty ZweigDavid Prince of T3’s Inner Circle shared this on Twitter:pic.twitter.com/lvWYWm5puJ— The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) June 16, 2023 P.S. Don’t forget to take a peak at Scott Redler’s special offer. Click Here to Access the Deal
Continue Reading -->Fearless Bulls vs. the Fed: What’s on Tap June 12-16, 2023
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, we invite you to join this week’s upcoming events:The Newsbeat Open House with JR Romero!Our Twitter Spaces with MightySoldiersScott Redler: Chat With a Pro TraderUse the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: The Small Caps Come BackThe June SurgeFear Does Not Exist in This Market, Does It?The Fed Is Dead AheadSome Earnings BiggiesThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Still RULEFactoid of the Week: The Mighty Carvana Short SqueezeTrading Advice from Robert Deniro This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week in Review: The Small Caps Come Back(data as of 2:03 p.m. Friday) The big story this week was the surge in the Russell 2000, which jumped 1.7% to outperform the other major index ETFs. The bears have argued that the rally has been too tech-heavy, so it’s good to see other small caps get in the game. We also saw RSP, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF, outperform SPY, which is heavily influenced by a few large-cap tech stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL). You can see that in this chart:The S&P 500’s rally also pushed it 20% over the October 2022 low, so we are in a bull market — if you believe in that textbook definition. The June Surge Now let’s take a quick look at ETF performance in June. As you can see, just about everything is up: The 2023 rally is broadening out with energy, financials, airlines, and small caps catching up to the soaring tech stock. Meanwhile… complacency may be setting in.Fear Does Not Exist in This Market, Does It? The VIX is back at February 2020 levels, showing that traders expect almost no volatility: Meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey showed a surge in bullish sentiment: 44.5% of investors are bullish, a big jump from last week’s 29.1% reading. This is the highest reading since November 11, 2021. The S&P 500 topped out less than 2 months after that. Plus, CNN’s Fear and Greed Index reads Extreme Greed: Add it up and it’s obvious that traders are bullish. I’m not saying this is right or wrong – I’m just showing you the data.The Fed Is Dead AheadIt’s a big week for US economics:Tuesday: Consumer Price IndexWednesday: FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference, PPIThursday: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, NY Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial ProductionFriday: Michigan SentimentAll eyes are on the CPI Tuesday and the Fed Wednesday.We all want to see if the Fed’s really going to just hike 25 bps and pause.Of course, if Powell shakes things up, the bulls may run into a brick wall.Because based on the action in tech and housing stocks, it seems like the market’s pricing in Some Earnings BiggiesThe earnings calendar is almost empty but there are 4 important reports hitting:Monday: Oracle (ORCL) – will give us insights into enterprise tech spending (and possibly AI trends).Wednesday: Lennar (LEN) – homebuilding stocks are up huge in 2023 despite a lousy housing market so we’ll get more insights.Thursday: Kroger (KR) – will tell us about food inflation.Friday: Adobe (ADBE) – has been releasing amazing AI tech and we’ll see if people are buying The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis Still RULEEven though small caps played some catch-up this week, big-cap tech is still on stop with semiconductors up nearly 45% YTD:And who would have thought housing (ITB) would be up 30% in a bear market. Factoid of the Week: The Mighty Carvana Short SqueezeWe’re awarding Carvana (CNVA) the “Short Squeeze of the Year” Award. It has 45% short interest… and it’s up 306% year-to-date at $19.26. Only 3 of 27 analysts rate it a buy. And the average target price is just $13.There’s a parallel here with housing stocks. Everyone knew housing was slowing the same way everyone knew the weak used car market would hurt Carvana. Turns out, when everyone knows something, it can be time to buy. Easier said than done… but keep that thought in your head.Trading Advice from Robert DeniroRobert DeNiro on your attachment to stocks pic.twitter.com/8G1jUmlqXP— T3 Live (@t3live) June 8, 2023 P.S. Don’t forget to join this week’s upcoming events!The Newsbeat Open House with JR Romero!Our Twitter Spaces with MightySoldiersScott Redler: Chat With a Pro TraderUse the Table of Contents to jump around:
Continue Reading -->Will GameStop Say AI? What’s on Tap June 5-9, 2023
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, sign up for the Newsbeat Open House with JR Romero! Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek in Review: Tech Never Dies?A Big Slowdown…Will GameStop (GME) Say AI?Earnings Season CheckupTraders Are in a “Meh” Mood Despite Market StrengthThe Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis RULE!Factoid of the Week: Retail WinnersSami Lost $65,000 Before He Hit It Big! This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week in Review: Tech Never Dies?Just when we thought tech couldn’t get any stronger… the QQQ’s jumped another 1.9% this week, aided by surges in names like Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), Paypal (PYPL), and Netflix (NFLX).(data as of 3:15 p.m. Friday) Year-to-date, the QQQ’s are up a ridiculous 33.3%. However, traders are starting to ask whether the other major index ETFs SPY, IWM, and DIA are about to play catch-up. All three outperformed QQQ for the week as small caps, banks, and energy played catch-up. However, judging by the action in individual stocks, shorts had better be careful betting against tech… especially when there’s the potential for the magic two letters to come out. And yes, those magic letters are “AI.” MongoDB (MDB) surged 28% on Friday after a blockbuster earnings report and a bullish outlook driven by the almighty AI. A Big Slowdown…The US economic data calendar slows down this week with:Monday: S&P Global PMI Services PMI, Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment & PMITuesday: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, API Crude Oil StockWednesday: Trade BalanceThursday: Jobless ClaimsFriday: Baker Hughes Rig CountThere’s not a lot to get excited about here so we won’t waste your time with unnecessary commentary. And overseas, we see:Monday: CHF CPI, ES/ITA/FRA/DE PMI, EU Services PMI, JPY Household Spending, GBP Retail SalesTuesday: AUD Rate Decision & GDP, DE Factory Orders, GBP Construction PMI, CAD Building Permits & Ivey PMI, CNY Trade BalanceWednesday: CHF Unemployment, DE Industrial Production, BR CPI, CAD Rate Decision, JPY GDP, AUD Trade BalanceThursday: IN Rate Decision, EU GDP, NZD PMI, CNY CPI & PPIFriday: RUB Rate Decision & CPI, CAD Employment, Will GameStop (GME) Say AI?Last week was action-packed with MongoDB (MDB), Zscaler (ZS), Broadcom (BRCM), Lululemon (LULU), and C3.ai (AI) but this week’s calendar is light.Still, we’ll be watching:Tuesday: The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM), Ciena Corporation (CIEN)Wednesday: Brown-Forman Corporation (BFB), Campbell Soup Company (CPB), GameStop Corp. (GME)Thursday: The Toro Company (TTC), Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG), DocuSign Inc. (DOCU), Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN)Friday: Nio (NIO)The big question we’re going to ask is… will GameStop (GME) say “AI” on its earnings call? Because with the stock up 32% in the past month and short interest sky-high at 18%, management may try to juice the stock with the magic word. Earnings Season CheckupAccording to Factset, 99% of the S&P 500 have reported and:78% of companies beat EPS estimates75% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.1% vs. expectations for a -6.7% declineFactset also tells us that 10 of 11 sectors have reported better-than-expected earnings, with utilities being the outlier. Traders Are in a “Meh” Mood Despite Market StrengthInvestors and traders remain bearish despite the market’s strength this year. According to AAII, just 29.1% of investors are bullish. That’s up from last week’s 27.4% reading but under the long-term average of 37.5%. 36.8% of investors are bearish, and AAII said “Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 75th time out of the past 80 weeks.” This negativity may be fueling the market’s rise. The Best ETFs of 2023 – Semis RULE!Semiconductors are still rocking hard thanks to blockbuster moves in names like Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Marvell (MRVL).This table shows you just how important sectors have been in 2023. It was hard to predict at the end of 2022, but the more risk you took, the more you got paid this year. Meanwhile, energy is way behind after huge returns in 2021 and 2022. Factoid of the Week: Retail WinnersAmazon (AMZN) and Costco (COST) are the first and third-best retail stocks of 2023:What do they have in common? No shoplifting. We can’t say the same about Lululemon (LULU), though they still squeezed out a huge earnings win. Sami Lost $65,000 Before He Hit It Big!Get to know Sami Abusaad of T3’s Strategic Day Trader VTF®:
Continue Reading -->Is There Life After Nvidia? What’s on Tap May 30 – June 2
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, check out:Coming Wednedsay: Inner Circle’s David Prince on Conversations With a Pro TraderSave 40% with T3’s Memorial Day SaleUse the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarWeek Review: Nvidia Dominates!Jobs Data Is on the WayEarnings: Life After Nvidia?AI: The Earnings Season CrazeTraders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceThe Best Stocks & ETFs of 2023Factoid of the Week: Nvidia Is CHEAP?Get to Know Kira Turner This Week’s Trading CalendarIf you want to view or download this week’s calendar, check click the image below:Click to enlarge Week Review: Nvidia Dominates!You guessed it! This week was all about Nvidia’s (NVDA) shocking earnings beat and guidance, which sent tech and especially semiconductors screaming higher. The QQQ’s rose 3.4% for the week:(data as of 2:23 p.m. Friday) Year-to-date, the QQQ’s are up a ridiculous 30.7% thanks to the brutal strength in large-cap tech stocks. 17 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 (the index upon which QQQ is based on) are up more than 40% year-to-date. And year-to-date Nvidia is the #1 stock in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the SMH ETF. (more on this below In economic news, the big story was Friday’s Core PCE Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The number came in hot, which had some folks worrying about early Friday morning. The worries didn’t last with stocks powering higher into the close. Now let’s look forward to next week. Jobs Data Is on the WayWe have some important US economic data reports on tap including:Tuesday: S&P/CS Home Prices, CB Consumer ConfidenceWednesday: Chicago PMI, FOMC’s Harker Speaks, Beige Book, API Crude StocksThursday: ADP Employment, Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC’s Harker SpeaksFriday: Nonfarm payrolls, Baker Hughes Rig CountThe biggie this week is the nonfarm payrolls report. Despite lots of headlines about layoffs, the labor market has remained strong in recent months.As of Friday afternoon, traders are pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25bps June rate hike, up from just 17.4% one week ago. And overseas, we get:Monday: BRL Focus Market Readout, NZD Building Consents, JPY Job/Applications ratio, AUD Building ApprovalsTuesday: CHF GDP, ES CPI, JPY Industrial Prod. & Retail Sales, AUD CPI, CNY PMIWednesday: CHF Retail Sales, FRA CPI & GDP, DE Unemployment & CPI, BRL Unemployment, CAD GPI, AUD Retail Sales, CNY Caixin PMIThursday: DE Retail Sales, ES/ITA/DE/FRA PMI, EU CPI, EU Unemployment, KRW CPIFriday: ES Unemployment, BRL Inflation(don’t forget the market is closed on Monday May 29 for Memorial Day) Earnings: Life After Nvidia?Nvidia (NVDA) was the start of earnings season, but pay attention because we’ve got some big ones this week, like:Tuesday: HP Inc. (HPQ) U-Haul (UHAL), Ambarella (AMBA)Wednesday: Salesforce.com (CRM), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Chewy (CHWY), Kroger (KR), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), C3.ai (AI)Thursday: Dollar General (DG), Macy’s (M), Broadcom (AVGO), Lululemon (LULU), MongoDB (MDB), Zscaler (ZS)This looks like a random grab-bag, but we could see some fireworks. Cloud security play Zscaler (ZS) is the second-best performing Nasdaq 100 stock in May — performing even better than Nvidia. Broadcom (BRCM) will be watch just because semiconductor stocks have been on fire — and not just Nvidia. Marvel (MRVL) was up nearly 30% on Friday after earnings, and 7 of the 25 stocks in the SMH ETF are up more than 20% In May. Salesforce.com (CRM) and MongoDB (MDB) will give us insights on enterprise tech trends, while the retailers like Kroger (KR) and Macy’s (M) should give us more consumer insights. But the star of the week might be C3.ai (AI) on Wednesday, which has been rallying hard on the AI craze. Can they pull an Nvidia? We’re about to find out. AI: The Earnings Season CrazeAccording to Factset, 110 companies in the S&P 500 used the term “AI” during their Q1 earnings calls. That’s up from 78 last quarter. And as far as earnings season goes, things have been better than expected (though not great). 97% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and:78% of companies beat EPS estimates76% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.1% vs. expectations for a -6.7% decline Traders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceInvestors and traders remain bearish despite the market’s strength this year. According to AAII, just 27.4% of investors are bullish. That’s up from last week’s 22.9% reading but well below the long-term average of 37.5%. 39.7% of investors are bearish, and AAII said “Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 74th time out of the past 79 weeks.” The Best Stocks & ETFs of 2023For fun, let’s look at the top 20 stocks of 2023:As we discussed, Nvidia (NVDA) is on top by a country mile. Even #2 Meta’s (META) 118% gain is way behind.Now let’s move onto ETFs:Thanks to Nvidia (NVDA), Marvel (MRVL), and other semi names, the SMH ETF is now up a whopping 45% year-to-date The broader XLK and QQQ ETFs are up big but well-behind. And while the ARKK ETF is up big this year with a 25.7% gain, fund head Cathie Wood came under fire for dumping Nvidia (NVDA) right before this year’s historic 160% run. Factoid of the Week: Nvidia Is CHEAP?Want to know how big Nvidia’s guidance was? So big that the consensus FY2024 revenue forecast rose by 41% in two days. And analyst raised their earnings estimates by 70%.These increases are so big that based on forward earnings estimates, Nvidia is the cheapest it’s been since January. (we’re not making a stock recommendation here…) Get to Know Kira TurnerLearn more about Kira Turner of T3 Live’s Inner Circle.
Continue Reading -->Welcome to Nvidia Week! What’s on Tap May 22-26
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Before we get started, check out:Coming Soon: Derrick Oldensmith on Conversations With a Pro TraderSave 40% with T3’s Memorial Day Sale T3’s Inner Circle Community – where you want to be if you trade NvidiaUse the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents Nvidia Week! This Week’s Trading CalendarTech Is on the Warpath!US Economic DataNvidia Earnings Time!Earning Season… Not Good But Not a Disaster EitherTraders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceTech Leads the Way, All the WayFactoid of the Week: Carvana Is a MonsterGet to Know Scott Redler Nvidia Week! This Week’s Trading CalendarYes, we know you’re pumped for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report Wednesday, but click the calendar image to see what else is on tap:Click to enlarge Tech Is on the Warpath!What a week! We just saw:Retailers like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Foot Locker (FL) warning about the outlook for consumer spendingA huge tech stock rally led by momentum names like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD)Elon Musk scoring major wins on Tesla’s (TSLA) Investor Day and his interview with CNBC’s David FaberHere’s a look at the four horseman ETFs:(data as of 3 p.m. Friday) Year-to-date, the QQQ’s are still crushing the other big ETFs thanks to giant rallies in names like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL).Now let’s look forward to next week. US Economic DataWe have some important US economic data reports on tap including:Tuesday: New Home Sales, Manufacturing & Services PMI’sWednesday: FOMC Meeting MinutesThursday: GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Home SalesFriday: Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE Price IndexThe biggie this week is that Core PCE Price Index because the Fed watches it closely as an inflation barometer.As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in a 17.4% probability of a June rate hike, up from 10.7% two weeks ago thanks to recent economic reports showing some inflationary pressure. And overseas, we get:Monday: Japan Services PMI, Brazil Focus Market ReadoutTuesday: France/Germany/England PMI’s, New Zealand Rate DecisionWednesday: England CPI & PPI, ECB Policy Meeting, South Africa CPI, Germany Business ExpectationsThursday: Germany GDP, South Africa Rate Decision, Japan CPI, Australia Retail SalesFriday: England Retail Sales, Switzerland Employment Nvidia Earnings Time!Earnings season is coming to a close, but we have some important reports next week, topped by chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).Monday: Zoom (ZM), Nordstrom (JWN)Tuesday: Intuit (INTU), Lowe’s (LOW), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)Wednesday: Nvidia (NVDA), Analog Devices (ADI), Snowflake (SNOW)Thursday: Costco (COST), Medtronic (MDT), Netease (NTES), Workday (WDAY), AutodeskFriday: VMWare (VMW), Buckle (BKE)Yes, we’ll hear a lot about the consumer from Costco (COST) and Lowe’s (LWO), but we all want to know about Nvidia. Here’s a few fun facts of which you may not be aware:Semiconductors is the #1 sector of 2023 with a 31%+ gain for the SMH ETFNvidia is the #1 performer in the SMH ETF this year with a 114% gainNvidia is the #1 performer in the S&P 500 IndexNvidia is the #1 performer in the Nasdaq 100 IndexSo everyone wants to see if this mega stock can keep the momentum up. As far as we’re concerned, THIS is the event of earnings season. Sorry Apple… By the way, if you want to trade Nvidia before or after the report, check out the Inner Circle VTF® – our team is very active with Nvidia and its rival AMD (AMD). Earning Season… Not Good But Not a Disaster EitherAs we noted last week, earnings season is pretty strong relative to expectations. According to FactSet, 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and so far:78% of companies beat EPS estimates76% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.2% vs. expectations for a -6.7% declineSo earnings are lousy but better-than-expected. Which is why the market’s been up this year. Traders Are in a Rotten Mood Despite the Market’s ResilienceInvestors and traders remain remarkably bearish despite the market’s stability. According to AAII, just 22.9% of investors are bullish. AAII says “Optimism reverted to an unusually low level and is at a seven-week low. Bullish sentiment is unusually low for the 51st time out of the past 72 weeks.” So even with tech stocks blasting higher and a better-than-expected earnings season, traders are still in a bad mood. The debt ceiling standoff, concerns over the Fed, and the regional banking mess are still weighing on traders’ and investors’ minds. Tech Leads the Way, All the WayIt’s the same old story. Tech is crushing everything in 2023, and housing stocks are posting big gains, looking past what looks like the most obvious slowdown in history. Meanwhile, energy and financials are drags. Factoid of the Week: Carvana Is a MonsterLooking for the short squeeze of the year? Look no further than Carvana (CVNA) — supposed victim of the soft used car market: Carvana has the highest short interest of any stock with a $500 million+ market cap… and it’s up 144.5% this year. Other big short squeeze: C3.ai (AI), and Bitcoin plays Mara (MARA), and Microstrategy (MSTR). Get to Know Scott RedlerLearn more about our Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler:
Continue Reading -->What’s On Tap for Traders: May 15-19
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! Use the Table of Contents to jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarThe Week in Review…A Busier Stream of Econ DataRetail Earnings TimeSo How Has Earnings Season Been?Traders Are Still in a Bad MoodA Look at Sector Performance in 2023:Factoid of the Week: The Best Traders on Earth are in the US CongressGet to Know JR Romero This Week’s Trading CalendarClick the calendar image to enlarge it, then scroll down to see what’s coming down the pipe the week of May 15: The Week in Review…What a week! We survived:Earnings whiffs from Disney (DIS), PayPal (PYPL), AirBnB (ABNB), Wynn (WYNN)US CPI & PPI reportsA giant pop & drop in Tesla (TSLA) FridayThe major indices were mostly down this week, but the QQQ’s managed to squeeze into the green.(data as of 2 p.m. Friday) And year-to-date, the QQQ’s are still crushing the other big ETFs thanks to huge moves in big tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT). Even with Friday’s ugly outside day, it’s been pretty smooth sailing this year:Now let’s look forward to next week. A Busier Stream of Econ DataThe US economic calendar picks up next week with:Monday: NY Empire State ManufacturingTuesday: Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Retail Inventories, Fed’s Williams speaksWednesday: Building Permits, Housing StartsThursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home SalesThe big discussion on the Street is whether the Fed can slow the economy without breaking it.So everyone will be watching these reports for a better idea of where the US economy stands.After this week’s light CPI and PPI reports, traders are pricing in a slightly higher probability of a Fed Rate hike at the June 14 meeting.As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in a 16.6% probability of a June rate hike, up from 10.7% last week. That’s thanks to this week’s light CPI and PPI reports, which showed continued moderation in inflationary pressures.Only a moron would argue that inflation is low.But it is less awful.And overseas, we get:Monday: Switzerland PPI, Canadian Housing Starts & Whole Sale Sales, China Industrial Production & UnemploymentTuesday: Great Britain Employment, EU GDP, Italy CPI, Canada CPI, Japan GDPWednesday: EU CPI, Japan Industrial Production, New Zealand PPI, Australia EmploymentThursday: Canada Housing Prices, Japan CPIFriday: Germany PPI, Canada Retail sales Retail Earnings TimeEarnings season is pretty much done, but we’ve got some big retail reports on tap:Tuesday: Home Depot (HD)Wednesday: Target (TGT), TJ Maxx (TJX)Thursday: Walmart (WMT), Ross Stores (ROST)Friday: Foot Locker (FL)This earnings season has been all over the place for consumer stocks. We’ve seen some huge hits (like Apple) and some big misses (like Disney) Nonetheless, Walmart and Target should give us fresh insights on the consumer. Outside of retail, we have Baidu (BIDU) on Tuesday, Cisco on Wednesday (CSCO), and Applied Materials (AMAT) on Thursday. So How Has Earnings Season Been?As we noted last week, earnings season is pretty strong relative to expectations. According to FactSet, 92% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and so far:78% of companies beat EPS estimates75% of companies have beaten revenue estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.5% vs. expectations for a -6.7% declineSo earnings stink, but they’re not as bad as expected. Which is why the market’s been up this year. Traders Are Still in a Bad MoodInvestors and traders remain remarkably bearish despite the market’s stability. According to AAII, just 29.4% of investors are bullish. That’s up from 24.1% the past two weeks, but well below the 37.5% long-term average. AAII said “pessimism among individual investors stayed above average for the 12th consecutive week.” A Look at Sector Performance in 2023:Click to enlargeIt’s the same old story. Housing (ITB) is winning which it’s not supposed to do in a rising rate environment, which could be related to traders pricing in rate cuts later this year. And tech is pretty strong with XLK, SMH, and ARKK all up 20% YTD. Meanwhile, Natural Gas (UNG), Banks (XLF, KRE), Energy (XLE, OIH), and Cannabis (MSOS) have lagged, big time. Factoid of the Week: The Best Traders on Earth are in the US CongressAccording to Unusual Whales, Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville is quite the active options trader:BREAKING: Senator Tommy Tuberville has just sold millions in stock and options.He sold puts on $TXN, $KR, $HPQ, $PARA, $AMT, and sold 50k in puts on $TSLA, $CSCO and $MSFTAnd much more.He appears to using options while in Congress.Wild.— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 12, 2023 Interestingly, two opposing members of Congress — Matt Gaetz and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — are teaming up to ban members of Congress from trading or owning stocks. Because Paul Tudor Jones or Richard Dennis have nothing on this crew:BREAKINGI have just released the full trading report on politicians in 2022.Despite 2022 being the worst market since 2008, both Democrats & Republicans beat the market.Many politicians individually beat the market.And many made unusual trades resulting in huge gains. pic.twitter.com/qDWIJB2spk— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 3, 2023 Get to Know JR RomeroHow did JR Romero go from code to pro trader & VTF® moderator.
Continue Reading -->What’s On Tap for Traders: May 8-12
Welcome to your weekly trading preview! We added a Table of Contents to help you jump around: Table of Contents This Week’s Trading CalendarThe Week in Review…It’s Inflation Time!Earnings Season Slows Down But It’s Not OverSo How Has Earnings Season Been?Traders Are in a Rotten MoodA Look at Sector Performance in 2023:Factoid of the WeekGet to Know Sami Abusaad This Week’s Trading CalendarClick the calendar image to enlarge it, then scroll down to see what’s coming down the pipe the week of May 8: The Week in Review…What a week! We survived:Big earnings from Apple (AAPL), AMD (AMD), Starbucks (SBUX), Shopify (SHOP), and Qualcomm (QCOM)The FOMC and ECB Rate DecisionsThe Nonfarm Payrolls ReportThe regional bank collapseAnd with Apple leading a big Friday surge, our big 4 horsemen ETFs recovered some of the midweek damage, with the QQQ’s even getting in the green for the week:Year-to-date, the QQQ’s are still crushing the other big ETFs thanks to huge moves in names like Apple, Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT). The QQQ’s also have no exposure to banks or energy, which have underperformed. So it’s been smooth sailing in 2023:Now let’s look forward to next week. By the way, Scott Redler is hosting a free week in the Alpha Team VTF®, and he can walk you through all the events we’ll talk about. It’s Inflation Time!We’re walking into a big week for inflation… and it’s worldwide thing. Yes, the US has CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Traders will be looking for evidence inflation is breaking down to support expectations that the Fed will pause after this past week’s 25 bps rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool implies a 96.1% probability that the Fed does not hike at the June 14 Feed meeting. FedWatch also shows the market is pricing in a 38.1% chance of a 25 bps cut in July. We’ll see if the CPI/PPI numbers sway these expectations. And overseas, we get:Wednesday: Germany CPI, China CPI & PPIThursday: New Zealand Inflation ExpectationsFriday: France, Spain, Brazil, and Russia CPIEngland in particular has a busy economic calendar next week with:Monday: Retail SalesTuesday: House Price IndexThursday: Bank of England Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes, Industrial ProductionFriday: GDP, Manufacturing Production Earnings Season Slows Down But It’s Not Over85% of the S&P 500 have reported earnings (more on this below), but we’ve still got some notable reports hitting the tape this week. Several consumer names report, including PayPal (PYPL) on Monday, AirBnB (ABNB) and UnderArmour (UAA) Tuesday, and Disney (DIS) on Wednesday. Even with high inflation, The consumer seems to have unlimited money for things they desire (like iPhones and McDonald’s fries), so it will be interesting to see if these companies show strength or strain. AirBnB and Disney will also give us reads into travel demand. Electric vehicle enthusiasts will be watching Lucid Group (LCID) on Monday and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) on Tuesday. Tesla (TSLA) got slapped on earnings in April because of margin pressure, and Ford (F) is losing buckets of money in its EV business. We’ll find out if Lucid and Rivian do any better. And don’t forget about Carl Icahn! His company Icahn Enterprises LP (IEP) moved its report to Wednesday, May 10. IEP got smashed this week after Hindeburg Researched accused Icahn of accounting irregularities. Look at this rollercoaster of a chart — we’re all eager to see how this one turns out: So How Has Earnings Season Been?According to FactSet… not bad — at least relative to expecations. 85% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and so far:79% of companies beat EPS estimates75% of companies have beaten sales estimates.Earnings have declined by -2.2% vs. expectations for a -6.7% declineNobody’s celebrating a -2.2% decline in earnings but it’s not as bad as -6.7%. Remember, the market’s about expectations, and expectations were too low coming into earnings season. Speaking of low expectations… Traders Are in a Rotten MoodInvestors and traders remain remarkably bearish despite the market’s stability. According to AAII, just 24.1% of investors are bullish. That’s well below the 37.5% long-term average. Plus, AAII said “bullish sentiment is unusually low for the 50th time out of the past 70 weeks,” and “bearish sentiment is still above its historical average of 31.0% for the 71st time out of the past 76 weeks.” This is despite the SPY’s 7.8% gain in 2023 and the QQQ’s 21.2% rally. Now let’s dig below the surface to see what’s been working this year: A Look at Sector Performance in 2023:2023’s been a bizarre year. It’s almost like we’re risk on and risk off at the same time. On the risk on side: Housing (ITB) is leading the market despite a slowdown in housing, Tech (XLK, SMH) is booming and ARKK rebounded from a messy 2022. And on risk off, gold (GLD) is outperforming and Treasuries (TLT) are up. Who could have imagined both ARKK and gold outperforming? Factoid of the Week According to Bespoke Investment Group, nonfarm payrolls have exceeded economists’ estimates for 13 straight months.This chart is bonkers. Non Farm Payrolls has now exceeded expectations for a record 13 straight months. https://t.co/UaURbFdG6a pic.twitter.com/4urENerxmy— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) May 5, 2023 Maybe we should stop trusting economists’ long-term predictions? After all, they can’t predict anything even one month out… Get to Know Sami AbusaadHow did Sami achieve greatness as a trader? Find out here:
Continue Reading -->What’s On Tap for Traders: May 1 – 5
What a week! We had: Big earnings beats like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) Whiffs like Amazon (AMZN) and Snap (SNAP) First Republic (FRC) melting down A slowdown in US GDP Here’s your trading calendar before we dig into one of the busiest weeks of 2023: (click to enlarge) First, let’s start with a quick review of the recent action: Tech Dominates… For Now Stocks finished slightly higher for the month as buyers overlooked Amazon’s (AMZN) post-earnings decline, the US GDP miss, and the First Republic (FRC) implosion. Related: How Jeff Cooper Nailed Amazon at $122 And in an impressive turnaround from a weak start, the SPY finished right at the highs of the day: Year-to-date, QQQ’s is decimating the other major index ETFs thanks to the tech stock boom. Of course, next week is huge for tech investors thanks to these earnings reports: AMD (AMD) on Tuesday Qualcomm (QCOM) on Wednesday Apple (AAPL) on Thursday Apple always demands major attention from investors, and the stakes are high thanks to the stock’s 29%+ gain this year: David Prince tells us “Slowing iPhone demand could be offset by the services business picking up steam, but the upside potential looks muted from here.” If you’re interested in trading Apple pre and post-earnings, check out Inner Circle because David and his team will be tracking the stock closely next week. AMD and Qualcomm should also be on your radar because we’ll get insights into where we are in the semiconductor cycle. And of course, it will be fun to see how many times they say ‘AI’ on their conference calls. Can they top Google, Microsoft, and META, each of whom said ‘AI’ nearly 50 times? Other Earnings Reports of Interest The fun does not end with tech. Starbucks (SBUX) reports Tuesday. The stock hit a 1-year high this week in the wake of strong numbers from McDonald’s (MCD) and Pepsi (PEP): So we’ll see if the struggling consumer still has cash for those fabulous orange mocha frappucinos: Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) reports Thursday. Bitcoin has been one of the best-performing risk assets this year, so we’ll see if that’s driving results for Coinbase, which has been down in the dumps thanks to regulatory threats: And on Friday, meme stock giant AMC Entertainment (AMC) drops its earnings numbers. We also have: Monday: Stryker (SYK), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Tuesday: Uber (UBER), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Eaton (ETN) Wednesday: CVS (CVS), Estee Lauder (EL), Progressive (PGR) Thursday: ConocoPhillips (COP), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Shopify (SHOP), Square (SQ), Doordash (DASH) Friday: Cigna (CI) Okay, that’s enough earnings talk because… The Fed Is Dead Ahead We’ve got a critical week ahead on the US economic front. The Fed will announce its latest rate decision on Wednesday. T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler said “There’s a 90% chance they go 25 bps, and most think that’s end of the rate hike cycle. This could be an inflection point for this cycle. Many people think the Fed will cut in the second half, but I don’t see that happening unless we go to SPX 3700 or lower. If we hold above 4100 and start squeezing towards resistance at 4300, the Fed isn’t cutting.” IMPORTANT: Scott is hosting a Fed Day trading event in the Alpha Team VTF® on Fed Day. You can sign up right here. Scott’s Positions as of 2023-04-28 at 3.39.56 PM Click to enlarge On top of the Fed, we’ve got plenty of employment data coming including: Tuesday: JOLTs Job Openings Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls We also have some key international reports, including: Tuesday: Australia Rate decision, Eurozone CPI Wednesday: China Manufacturing PMI Thursday: ECB Rate Decision Friday: Canada Employment How do Traders Feel? BEARISH Do traders hate this market? Yes. Hedge funds have the largest net short position in S&P 500 futures since 2011: Just as large speculators/hedge funds have built largest net short position for S&P 500 futures since 2011 (blue), leveraged investors have also boosted net short positions on 10y U.S. Treasury futures (orange) to record pic.twitter.com/zfcqdrHO57 — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) April 25, 2023 And the American Association of Individual Investors says just 24.1% of investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 37.5%: “Optimism is unusually low for the 49th time out of the past 69 weeks,” AAII says. Get to Know Kira Turner Rodeo is more dangerous than NFL football. And rodeo is where Inner Circle’s Kira Turner learned risk management. Learn more about her story in this episode of the Madam Trader podcast: We’ll see you bright and early Monday morning! Good luck out there!
Continue Reading -->What’s On Tap for Traders: April 24-29
We’re coming off an exciting week of trading with disappointing earnings from Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) and upside surpises from the banks. Now let’s look at what’s ahead this week. Click this image for a full calendar: (click to enlarge) Tech Earnings Season Rages On Tech has been remarkably strong in 2023 and QQQ is still crushing SPY by more than 2:1: As of Friday at 1:34 p.m. ET And that’s after earnings-driven declines in Tesla (TSLA), Netflix (NFLX), and the semiconductors this week. But we’re just getting started. We’re coming up on a pivotal week with plenty of big tech earnings reports including Tuesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL) Wednesday: Meta Platforms (META), eBay (EBAY), Texas Instruments (TXN) Thursday: Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC) AI has been the #1 buzzword on the Street, which has close eyes on Microsoft and Google for opposing reasons. Investors want to know how far Microsoft is ahead, and how far Google is behind. Meanwhile, Meta has a lot to prove with the stock up over 75% this year. And Amazon is in close focus as a barometer for the consumer. On Friday, JP Morgan reiterated its stance that Amazon is the best internet play right now, so we’ll see how things pan out Thursday. David Prince of T3 Live’s Inner Circle rode up Amazon this week so follow him for more insights on the stock: $AMZN Has been a wonderful ride. I trimmed much of my position today given my 108s are up huge. We have 3-4 big cap reports b4 their print and might very well buy $AMZN on any pullbacks pre thur night. — The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) April 21, 2023 A Big Regional Bank Report While bank earnings are mostly behind us, there’s still a biggie to watch Monday morning – even though it’s a regional name. Of course we’re talking about First Republic Bank (FRC), which is 90% off its February highs thanks to the regional bank crisis: This week, Charles Schwab (SCHW) — also caught up in the decline — bounced hard after its Monday morning earnings report: Traders will be eager to see if FRC is going the way of Schwab… or Signature Bank. Energy Earnings Energy has lagged in 2023 after crushing strength in 2021 and 2022, as you can see in this chart going back to January 2021: Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) report earnings on Friday, which will show us the strength of the industry. Even More Earnings… On top of those, we’ll get plenty of reads on the economy from the likes of: Monday: Coca-Cola (KO) Tuesday: Visa (V), Pepsi (PEP), McDonald’s (MCD), Danaher (DHR), UPS (UPS) Wednesday: Boeing (BA), T-Mobile (TMO) Thursday: Mastercard (MA), Honeywell (HON), Caterpillar (CAT) A Light US Economic Calendar We had few important US economic data points last week, but things get busier this week with: Tuesday: S&P Home Prices, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales Wednesday: Durable Goods, Trade Balance, Retail Inventories Thursday: GDP, Pending Home Sales Friday: PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Michigan Sentiment The PCE Price Index is a biggie because it’s one of the Fed’s prime inflationary indicators and could thus impact monetary policy. Overseas Action Speaking of inflation, Germany, France, Spain, Australia, and Singapore will reports CPI numbers this week, giving us a better read on global inflation trends. Germany, France, Spain, and Canada also report their Q1 GDP figures. Sentiment Is as Confusing as Ever The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 27.2% of investors are bullish, well below-the long-term average of 37.5%. That’s flat from last week: According to AAII, “bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 37.5% for the 71st time out of the past 73 weeks.” Pretty bearish… right? Yes. But CNN’s Fear & Greed Index shows that traders are greedy: Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. Permabears always say everyone’s bullish. The truth is somewhere in the middle… Video of the Week: Scott Redler on the Pro Trading Lifestyle Scott Redler of T3 Live’s Alpha Team VTF® talks to Greta Wall about his life in trading: Go here to sign up for Greta’s next event with T3 Trading’s Derrick Oldensmith. Sami Abusaad’s Gap Trading Webinar Want to learn Sami Abusaad’s gap trading secrets? Go here.
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