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Why 2026 rhymes with 2008 when it comes to deflation
Why a new T3 Live contributor is saying the ‘crowd’ noise’ is different than what the market is saying I’m not saying 2026’s setup is similar to 2008’s. I’m saying it’s exactly the same. The crowd is shouting again. It’s shouting about inflation — the same way it shouted in 2007 and 2008. And just like back then, the market is whispering something else entirely. After almost two decades in this trading and investing game, I’ve come to accept that winning in the markets is a choice. You show up regularly, you practice with intention, and you execute your plan on game day — no different from winning at anything else. But the first thing you have to choose is who you listen to: the crowd, or the market. They’re rarely saying the same thing. My 2008 story of using vegetable oil for fuel… because the ‘crowd’ said to When I first started trying to operate in the stock market back in 2007, I knew none of this. I treated it as a hobby, not a profession. Hobbies cost you money; professions earn you money. My hobbyist approach cost me embarrassing amounts of both time and money. Back then, I was fresh out of college, working my first “real job” as a telephone salesman for a big tech company. The cubicle is a miserable environment — they couldn’t have invented a more sorrowful place to spend your waking hours. I saw trading stocks on the internet as a way out, and it became a mental escape more than an income stream. And those were crazy times. Crude oil was pushing through $120… Cars were a way of life for me and my friends back then — building them, racing them, buying parts for race cars and 4x4s — so we felt the looming gas shortage in our bones. Building a car was already expensive, and driving one was getting worse by the week as China bought up every commodity on the planet to pull its population out of poverty and into a middle class. We started making biodiesel out of vegetable oil and lye, because we knew — we just knew — we were only months from running out of crude and gasoline. We just knew the trucks would stop delivering and the grocery stores would empty out. We knew all of it because we were listening to the shouting. The media. The politicians. The people around us. I was learning to be a trader, and instead of listening to the deafening noise of the crowd, I should have been listening to the whisper of the market. Gold can predict the future of inflation… and it’s doing it again Here’s what I didn’t know then but know now: gold front-runs the money printing. It starts moving 18 months to two years before the central banks do. By 2008, gold, wheat, and crude had already priced in the inflation before it ever entered public awareness — and as they topped out, they began whispering what came next. Not more inflation. Deflation. The most violent deflation to wash over the money system since 1929. Gold’s four-year run from autumn 2004 to autumn 2008 looks awfully similar to its run from autumn 2022 to now. It was a deflationary bust that dragged gold down into October 2008 as the financial crisis hit: Back then, it was the fertilizers running geometrically as China bought up all the potash and nitrogen in the world. Today, it’s the hyperscalers buying up all the DRAM. Here’s $MOS then versus $MU now: This is where it gets uncomfortable. Almost no one who was warning about deflation during the 2008 top could be heard over the shouting. Home prices — and the property-tax receipts riding on them — were ratcheting higher, and we were told they always would. By the end of 2009, property taxes were slashed across the country. Homeowner’s insurance cost a fraction of what it had a year earlier. Getting work done on your house in 2006 and 2007 came with an astronomical price tag, if you could even find someone to do it. By the end of 2009, the market was flooded with contractors looking for any project at all. It’s the exact same story, repeating verbatim, today. The signs were everywhere in 2008, but they didn’t boast… Frantic road-construction projects as towns rushed to spend every last tax dollar that had come in the year before. Look around your own town — see anything similar? The social excesses, too: the Hummer H2, a beefed-up Tahoe built for suburban moms who wanted to feel like they were on patrol because the drive to the grocery store had gotten too mundane. Nothing marked the top better than that thing. Are you seeing this in your town? Now look at your streets. I’ll bet you can’t drive across town without passing two Hummer EVs. The auto industry is writing off its wasted EV capex as we speak — Honda’s just the latest. None of those signs announced themselves. The astute speculator had to watch for them and listen to the quiet voice within — the one that whispered: sell. I’m watching, and I’m listening. Being 90% long gold miners from 2023 until autumn of 2025 got me to where I am today, and I’m always hunting the next high-probability position to size into. Right now, that position is cash. My current portfolio holdings I’m in 75% cash, with about 15% in gold miners left over from my last big trade, plus small trading positions in $ATUSF, $DAC, and $FTK after peeling some off over the past few weeks. I’ve also got a small long-term hold in $VITL and a bigger one in $EPD. As long as $SPY stays below its 8- and 21-day moving averages, I’m not taking on any new breakout trades. I’ll keep what I’ve got, trail my stops, stay in the upside, and run my game plan into August 2026 — when I
Continue Reading -->The SpaceX IPO Was Boring?
We’ll skip the preambles this week. You know what you want to hear about: 1. SpaceX IPO = Boring? The SpaceX (SPCX) IPO is a hit. The deal priced at $135, and the stock opened at $150 before hitting $176+. That was a sizable move, but it felt rather almost too orderly. Just boring. I expected more back-and-forth violence because of the crazy day-one action in Cerebras (CBRS) in May, along with the presence of Elon Musk cultists, and the huge valuation assigned to SpaceX. It felt combustible. But as of 1:25 pm ET Friday, this feels like an anticlimax in terms of volatility. It’s downright boring. I picked up a whopping 10 shares of SpaceX at the offering, so I’m not complaining. Every tick higher is good for me. Now it will be interesting to see if Elon’s true believers stick with the stock and hold it up. You can get our team’s full reaction to the IPO here: 2. SpaceX Sets a Hilarious New Mark for Leveraged ETFs This morning, Defiance ETFs relaunched their Defiance Daily 2X Space ETF (SPCL), saying this: “Effective June 12, 2026, all or a predominant portion of SPCL’s Target Portfolio consists of exposure to SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX), making SPCL the world’s first and only ETF to have 2X exposure to SpaceX on IPO day. The fund’s SpaceX exposure was established at the $135 IPO price.” So we got a leveraged SpaceX ETF the same day as the IPO. And it was trading before SpaceX opened at 11:46 am ET. Based on the Defiance website, it looks like the SPCL ETF went to cash before buying 52,888 shares of SpaceX at the $135 IPO price. That’s why SPCL has a trading history. And it had a notable price and volume explosion today: It traded just 49K shares Thursday, but was at 941K on Friday as of 1:42 pm ET. However, “normal” SpaceX leveraged ETFs will hit the market soon after the SEC delayed listings to avoid mucking up the IPO. 3. SanDisk Refuses to Stop On May 29, JR Romero predicted SanDisk (SNDK) hitting $2,000. And it crossed that mark today. Close enough for government work? The stock is now up 717% year-to-date, making it the #1 stock in the S&P 500 by a long shot. The #2 name Micron (MU) is up “only” 249%: And as you can see, the leaderboard is dominated by semiconductors and tech hardware names. Because it feels like there is near-unlimited demand for AI hardware, based on recent news like: Oracle (ORCL) raising $40 billion to help fund its AI buildout Alphabet (GOOGL) selling $80 billion in equity to expland AI infrastructure Super Micro (SMCI) raising $7 billion to buy components to fill new $39 billion in AI server orders And a lot of this money is going towards flash memory, DRAM, hard drives, processors, and all the other stuff that powers AI. 4. Higher Rates? The ECB raised rates on Wednesday and traders are thinking the US will follow suit following the hot CPI and PPI reports. The market is now pricing in a mere 39.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged for the rest of 2026. This is down from 61.8% a month ago. And now the following rate hike odds are being priced in: +25 bps: 41.0% +50 bps: 15.1% +75 bps: 2.1% +100 bps: 0.1% So in total: Traders are pricing in a 58.3% chance of higher rates by year-end. Remember when we debated how many cuts we’d get? Of course, next week we get the first FOMC announcement and press conference from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It will be interesting to see what tone he sets to kick off his term. And if he’ll signal he will go along with President Trump’s wish for lower rates. 5. Sentiment Is Bearish? The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 30.4% of investors are bullish. This is the lowest reading since March 18, when the S&P 500 closed at 6224. It’s also the fourth straight week of below-average bullishness. AAII says the #1 concern is “the economy and/or inflation.” That makes sense given this week’s hot CPI report, plus ongoing concerns about AI taking jobs. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at just 33, squarely in the “Fear” category. So the decline from the early June highs has taken a clear toll on the mood.
Continue Reading -->SpaceX-Mania Is Here. So What’s the Problem?
Stocks hit record highs this week, but tumbled after a semiconductor giant inspired a sell-off to close the week. Meanwhile, the biggest IPO of all time is about to land right on our heads: SpaceX-Mania Is Coming The SpaceX IPO is next Friday, June 12. Elon Musk’s baby will trade under the ticker SPCX. Word on the street is the deal is oversubscribed, maybe thanks to brokers like Fidelity lowering account size requirements to get on the deal. I have my order in to buy 10,000 shares. Whoops, that was a typos. It’s actually 10. As in ten. Enough to give me a thrill, but not enough to ruin my life. But after hearing JR Romero and Sami Abusaad talk about it, I’m thinking about cancelling my order: SpaceX aims to sell 555.55 million shares at $135 to raise $75 billion. That’s a target valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would give SpaceX the 8th largest market cap of any publicly-traded US company. Bigger than luminaries like Meta (META), Micron (MU), and Eli Lilly (LLY). To put that in perspective, the entire US 2025 IPO market (including SPACs and other such vehicles) was $70 billion, according to the SEC. And with AI giants Anthropic and OpenAI also coming public this year, we’re on track for a blockbuster year for IPOs. If all three companies come public, 2026 will likely sport the three biggest IPOs of all time. Saudi Aramco holds the record at $29.4 billion in its 2019 offering, which should easily be dwarfed by The Big Three. But there’s a catch. The market tends to top out in years with surges in public offerings: It happened in 2021, 2014, 2007, and 2000. Why? Likely because we get surges in offerings when capital markets conditions can’t get any better. So call me a little cautious. Speaking of Caution… First Broadcom, Now Oracle? The AI/Storage/Semi stock boom was raging out of control, until Broadcom’s (AVGO) underwhelming AI chip forecast ended the party Wednesday. AI-levered companies have been knocking the ball out of the park, so Broadcom’s disappointment felt out of nowhere. Broadcom is indeed growing like a weed. Just not fast enough for the hungry masses. And there’s no evidence it means AI demand is slowing, let alone dying. But the stakes go up on Wednesday, June 10 when software giant Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings. Oracle is a major AI player, and the market may not react well to another AI-related disappointment, no matter how small it is in the grand scheme of things. Rate Hike Odds Are Going Up Following Friday’s strong job report, traders are pricing in increasingly higher rates. Right now, the market is pricing in a 28.5% chance of rates staying the same through year-end: That’s down from 54.4% last week. Meanwhile, these are the implied odds of each level of rate hikes: Odds of one 25 bps hike are at 42.9%, up from 36.4% last week. And odds of 50 bps in hikes are at 22.5%, up from just 8.1%. I bet new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is going to have some very interesting conversations with President Trump… What Happened to Bitcoin? I’ve heard people call Bitcoin a “store of value” and “a hedge against inflation.” But it’s one of the worst asset classes of 2026, dropping 30% in a banner year for risk assets. The bulls’ last hope is a double bottom at the $60,000 area: The big question is why? Some blame the US dollar and the prospect of higher rates. I think the problem is much simpler. People saw how fast semiconductor and AI stocks were rising, and took their capital elsewhere. Look at this Bitcoin vs. SMH chart: They were very loosely correlated until last November, when they took divergent paths. One to the promised land. The other to the wasteland. Sentiment Remains Neutral The latest AAII sentiment survey shows that 36.3% of investors are bullish on stocks. This is the second straight neutral reading in a market that’s made record highs. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is 50, right in the neutral zone. This is healthy to see. Because it shows some caution out there, even with stocks blasting into orbit. Or maybe not everyone caught the hot semiconductor/AI trade, which was brutally strong up until Broadcom.
Continue Reading -->Dell Is Partying Like It’s 1999
The stock market hit record highs again this week as AI-mania won’t stop. And the funny thing is, the tech highflyers of the late 1990s are dominating 2026, led by names like Dell (Dell). Yes, Dell. Dell Is Partying Like It’s 1999 It’s 1999 all over again. The New York Knicks are in the NBA finals. Kids across America are wearing Doc Martens. And Del is once again a stock market darling. On Thursday after the close, Dell dropped a huge earnings beat with shocking forward guidance thanks to momentum in its AI server business. And now the stock is up 234% year-to-date, making it the 3rd best name in the S&P 500. Furthermore, look at this list of the best-performing S&P stocks: Many were late 90s dot.com favorites, including Ciena (CIEN), Texas Instruments (TXN), and NetApp (NTAP) in there. What goes around comes around. Turns out that AI is driving demand for memory, processors, and networking tools. Just like the Internet explosion did. And on a random note, I looked up what happened to JDS Uniphase, another 90s superstar. In 2015, it split into networking names Viavi Solutions (VIAV) and Lumentum Holdings (LITE). Both are AI monsters, up well over 100% this year: The Software Short Squeeze Software has made a massive rebound from the April lows, when the “AI will eat software” theme caught fire. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is now up 29% from its 52-week low on April 10. And interestingly, the average individual name in IGV is up a whopping 65% from its 52-week low. Some examples: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): +133% Datadog (DDOG): +133% Palo Alto Networks (PANW): +84% Oracle (ORCL): +51% ServiceNow (NOW): +34% And interestingly, it looks like the software rally was at least partly a short squeeze. Of the 106 stocks in IGV: 30 have short interest over 10% 75 have short interest over 5% And because of heavily shorted individual names like SoundHound (SOUN) and MARA Holdings (MARA), the average stock has short interest of 8.9%. For comparison, the average QQQ name has short interest of just 3.4%. Remember Rate Cuts? Seems like just yesterday we were thinking about how many times the Fed would cut rates in 2026. But the CME’s FedWatch tool shows traders are now pricing in a 0% chance of rate cuts until July 2027. So presumably, the market does not believe new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will automatically cut rates as President Trump wants. Today’s PCE Price Index Report showed that inflation accelerated for the 3rd straight month to 3.8%. Excluding food and energy, it rose 3.3%. Because everything is more expensive. Oil, imports, insurance, healthcare, etc. No wonder consumer confidence is in the dumps. The Bulls Are Not That Bulled Up The $SPX just hit a new record high at 7565, but are investors euphoric? Nope. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 35.6% of investors are bullish. This is the 2nd straight week of below-average bullishness. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 61/100, showing modest greed. However, the options market is showing elevated bullishness. The CBOE equity put-call ratio was just 0.43 Wednesday, which shows low demand for puts. But add it up, and it’s hard to say sentiment is anywhere near euphoric.
Continue Reading -->Will SpaceX Kill the Market?
What a week! Nvidia (NVDA) closed out a whopper of an earnings season, SpaceX is coming public, and the bulls kept us within striking distance of all-time highs. So I’ll ask a dangerous question. Will SpaceX Kill the Market? Elon Musk’s SpaceX dropped its IPO filing this week, revealing billions in losses and a sky-high valuation. And there’s other issues, like index companies changing the rules to get SpaceX into mainstays like the S&P 500, and Elon sucking up the voting power for himself. Does anyone care? It’s tricky to say. We surveyed the T3 Live community this week and asked “Do you want to buy SpaceX when it comes public?” 39.7% said yes, and 34.4% said maybe. And at the start of the year, we asked our audience “Which IPO are you most excited for?” 64.1% said SpaceX 28.2% said OpenAI 3.8% said Anthropic Given what looks like red hot retail interest and Elon’s games with the index providers, I will do my best to get some SpaceX shares before the IPO. Because it looks like the game may be rigged for the stock to pop. No guarantees because it’s common for high-profile IPOs (like recent new issue Cerebras) to sell off after hot debuts. News reports indicate that OpenAI and Anthropic will also come public this year. But there is a danger here – that a surge in new issues could contribute to a market top. SEC data shows that market tops coincide with strong IPO years like 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021. And we are looking at three generational IPOs coming public in 2026. I’m a little scared myself, though I am trying to scoop up some SpaceX shares myself. What can I say? I love me some Elon Musk drama, which is why I’m long Tesla (TSLA). The Mag 7 Mixup Is Fascinating Mag 7 earnings are amazing. The stocks are another story. FactSet just dropped a new set of Q1 earnings season numbers and they point to Mag 7 dominance. All Mag 7 names beat earnings expectations, with EPS growing by 63.2%. For the other 493 S&P 500 companies, earnings grew by 17.4%, which was impressive by itself. However, 2026 has been a mixed bag for the actual Mag 7 Stocks. 3 of them are down YTD, and the average return is +6.5% vs. +17.5% for QQQ. The discrepancy comes in semiconductors. Nvidia is the only Mag 7 semiconductor stock in a year with SMH up 61%: Nvidia’s Selloff Was Normal On Wednesday, Nvidia reported its 14th straight earnings beat. And the stock fell -1.8% Is this unusual? NOPE. That the 4th straight time Nvidia sold off the day after earnings, despite another solid beat. Here are Nvidia’s prior 8 post-earning reactions: 4Q 2026: -5.5% 3Q 2026: -3.2% 2Q 2026: -0.8% 1Q 2026: +3.3% 4Q 2025: -8.5% 3Q 2025: +0.5% 2Q 2025: -6.4% 1Q 2025: +9.3% Source: Koyfin The stock is a toss-up after earnings. And as you can see, it’s been more down than up. This makes sense, because the stock is widely followed and loved. And Q1 was jam packed full of huge earnings beats from the AI complex. Who was shocked that Nvidia’s still doing well? There Is a Bear Market in Euphoria The latest AAII Sentiment shows that just 31.7% of investors are bullish. This is below the long-term 37.5% average, despite the $SPX remaining in striking distance of the 7517.12 all-time high set last week. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed index is at 61, indicating modest greed: This is a positive for the market because it shows a lack of euphoria. You’d think investors would be more bullish because of a mild easing of Middle East tensions and crude oil slipping. But perhaps the crowd is more concerned about inflation and the Fed. Either way, market tops are often (but not always) market by overly bullish sentiment. We are not even in the neighborhood of bullish. Speaking of the Fed… Rate Hikes En Route? While President Trump has been adamant we need lower interest rates, the market is pricing in higher rates following a series of hot inflation readings. The CME’s FedWatch Tool now shows the market is pricing in a 0% chance of lower rates at year-end: Plus: 29.9% chance of rates staying the same 70.1% chance of rates going up And that 70.1% is divided up as follows. 42.4% chance of 25 bps in hikes 22.1% chance of 50 bps in hikes 5.2% chance of 75 bps in hikes 0.5% chance of 100 bps in hikes So why is the market so strong? Shouldn’t the prospect of higher rates hurt equities? For now, investors and traders are focused on booming corporate earnings amid a major AI-driven capex cycle. Rate expectations can change drastically month-to-month, but the earnings/AI story ain’t going away.
Continue Reading -->Nvidia: The Big Question Changed
President Trump made nice with China, the S&P 500 hit 7,500+ for the first time ever, and the 10-year yield is rising like a phoenix. So it’s time to look at the 5 things you need to know right now: 1. Nvidia Earnings Are About to Hit. JR Still Loves the Stock. AI kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday, May 20 after the close. The stock is up nearly 40% from the March lows, and expectations look higher. Earnings estimates have been rising and AI capex spending by hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) just keeps going up. A couple of years ago, a common question was “how long can these companies keep spending more money?” Now it feels like there’s no limit. JR Romero, who recently launched the new Premarket Pit VTF®, told us again why he thinks Nvidia is going to $258: You can learn about JR’s other services, including Sultans of Swing Trading, in this new video. 2. The Fed Is a Mystery Machine Inflation remains stubbornly high, judging by this week’s CPI and PPI report, making it hard for the Fed to cut rates. And thanks to the Iran war, oil looks mighty strong: The market is now pricing in a 48.7% chance of a single 25 bps rate cut this year, and a mere 0.4% chance of 50 bps in cuts. That’s according to the CME’s FedWatch tool: Meanwhile, the Fed is about to undergo a major transition when Jerome Powell passes the ball to Kevin Warsh, who is calling for a regime change at the FOMC. And if Warsh doesn’t play ball with President Trump on rate cuts, that could set the stage for another White House vs. Fed rivalry, raising fresh concerns about the independence of the FOMC. 3. Robinhood May Be the Best Crypto Play If you’re bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum (I have no opinion myself), take a look at Robinhood. The stock is down -32% this year, drastically underperforming peers like Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Coinbase (COIN). Why? Because Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell off a cliff. Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers has been the industry dominator, riding strength in equity markets and announcing new initiatives like its new Prediction-Market Platform. (note: IBKR is one of my biggest personal holdings and I have zero plans of selling) So if you believe in a crypto comeback, Robinhood may be an interesting way to play. Because the market would price in a rapid rebound in the company’s crypto revenues. 4. Earnings Season Has Been a Monster 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings and the numbers are fantastic, according to FactSet data. -Q1 EPS growth is trending to 27.7% vs. 13.1% expected back on March 31 -10 of 11 sectors have beaten expectations -84% of names beat EPS estimates well above historical norms However, there is one dark side. The market is punishing misses more than it is rewarding beats. The average return after an earnings miss is a -4.9% decline. Look at the right side of the chart. The average return after a beat is just +1.1%. So while the numbers are amazing overall, if you pick a bad name, you’re getting spanked hard. And interestingly this amazing earnings season came with relative high expectations because of rising analyst estimates, and the Iran war spiking oil prices. 5. Investors Are NOT Bulled Up The lastest AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 38.3% of investors are bullish. This is the 3rd straight week of neutral-ish sentiment despite equities making a string of new highs. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 65 showing modest greed. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio is hovering around 0.50. That means options traders are optimistic, but not overly so. The overall theme here is that market participants are cautiously optimistic. They are not falling over themselves to declare this the best market ever, even after a big rally from the March lows.
Continue Reading -->The Apple & SanDisk Takeover
What a week. I blinked, and the QQQ’s are now up nearly 15% year-to-date. Let’s get into the fun stuff starting with two of the most dominant forces in tech stocks: 1. Apple Is Winning Big in AI Wedbush’s Dan Ives just raised his Apple (AAPL) target price to $400, saying “we estimate roughly 20% of the world’s population will access AI through an Apple device over the coming years.” And presumably, AI will be a major topic at the June WWDC conference. Now, have I been reading Dan Ives? Or has Dan Ives been reading me? I’ve been saying for months that you can put any AI app on your iPhone or iPad or Mac or whatever. And I’ve never met a real live human being even considering switching to Android because of some alleged AI advantage. Plus, Apple has a massive Mac Mini shortage because they are selling like crazy to users of local AI models like OpenClaw. So Apple is still operating at genius level in AI. They are not blowing all their cash flow building expensive data centers and LLM models. And they get to ride the wave through their superior hardware devices and app store. 2. SanDisk Broke My Heart I’ve held onto all my Apple shares, but sold my SanDisk (SNDK) like a fool about a month ago. There is nothing worse than selling a stock and watching it double in a couple of weeks. I should have listened to JR Romero on this one. SanDisk is the #1 stock in the S&P 500 with a 532% gain. Intel (INTC) is #2 at +240%. This continues the theme of 1990’s tech darlings dominating the market in 2026: Even Ciena (CIEN) and Dell (DELL) are in there! The funny thing is, SanDisk might still be cheap! Even after this wild run, it’s trading at 9.5X forward earnings! This is because earnings estimates have risen so fast. There is still a major flash memory shortage, so SanDisk gets to charge whatever it wants. I had a funny feeling that Sandisk and the rest of the storage/memory complex (SNDK, STX, MU, WDC, etc) would top out around the launch of the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM). DRAM’s top holdings include SK Hynix, Micron (MU), Samsung, Kioxia Holdings, and SanDisk: But I was wrong. DRAM has almost doubled since its April 2 launch: Shows how valuable my instincts are… 3. Earnings Season Has Been Unbelievable Q1 earnings season was a blockbuster. According to FactSet, 84% of reporting S&P 500 companies beat EPS estimates, easily beating long-term averages. And total earnings have been 18.2% above estimates, more than double the 10-year average of 7.1%. So as of now, with 89% of companies having reported, earnings growth is trending at 27.7%, the highest since Q1 2021. That’s more than double the 13.1% expected on March 31. Some of the bigger earnings winners include Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), SanDisk (SNDK), GE Vernova (GEV), and Intel (INTC). 4. SpaceX Is Here, Sort of Traders are hot for the SpaceX IPO. They’re showing it by bidding up fellow Elon Musk brainchild Tesla (TSLA), plus space exploration names like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR). Tesla is up 25% over the past month, with any other space names surging as well: And now the rumor mills are active, with some folks believing that SpaceX and Tesla will merge. (Note: XAiI is now part of SpaceX, and the entity is called SpaceXAI, but I’m calling it SpaceX here because that’s what most people say. In other Tesla news, the company is recalling its lower-priced Cybertruck. Because the wheels might fall off. But hey, at least the stock’s looking secure. 5. Sentiment Stagnates Markets are hitting record highs, but sentiment is not. The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.3% of investors are bullish, basically unchanged from last week. This is inline with the long-term average of 37.5%. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 68. Yes, that counts as greed, but it’s nothing dramatic. So investors are not all-in on this market. As we said last week, this type of sentiment reading is great for the market because it implies there is money on the sidelines. Markets often (but not always) top on euphoric sentiment. We’re not even close to that.
Continue Reading -->Apple: Super Intelligent on AI
Stocks raged higher this week, driven by huge earnings beats from tech giants. So let’s get into this week’s big stories: 1. Put Some Respect on Apple’s Name For a while, it was hard to escape stories about Apple (AAPL) supposedly falling behind because it wasn’t doing enough in AI. Yet with Thursday’s earnings report, we learned that iPhone and Mac demand is still booming. Even without the company ramming AI features down our throats. Remember, as anyone with a semi-functioning brain knows, you can run AI apps on Apple’s fantastic hardware. Like Mac Minis, which are hugely popular for running local AI agents like OpenClaw. I’ve never met a single human being that stopping using an iPhone or Mac because of a lack of AI functionality. As an Apple shareholder, I hope new CEO John Ternus stays the course by focusing on great products. And partner with companies like Alphabet (GOOGL), OpenAI, and Anthropic where it makes sense. 2. SanDisk Flashed Before My Eyes SanDisk (SNDK) reported another beyond shocking earnings beat on Thursday, and the stock is now up 363% year-to-date. That makes it the top stock in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 by a country mile. Intel (INTC) is #2 with a 166% gain. AI data centers are sucking up flash memory way faster than it can be made, so prices are up exponentially. I have a 2-terabyte SanDisk SSD drive I got in 2023 for $180. Storage/memory prices are “supposed” go to down over time. But a similar new one would cost me $320. Of course, I ignored JR Romero’s brilliance on this stock and sold it in April. So when the results flashed across my screen, I felt a little sick inside. I have been following markets for decades and I’ve never seen earnings beats this big: And before you ask, Nvidia (NVDA) isn’t even close, at least during its AI era. Nvidia’s biggest EPS beat in the past few years was Q2 of 2024, when it beat by 29%. SanDisk just beat by 60%. Crazy stuff. 3) The Semiconductor Chart That Guarantees FOMO Stanley Druckenmiller once said “Put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully.” Now look at the semiconductor basket: Over the past 10 years, SMH has compounded at 36% per year, thanks to huge gains in stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Taiwan Semi (TSM), and AMD (AMD). SMH has outperformed SPY by over 6-fold, and was kicking butt even before the AI spending boom. And note: SMH is up 42% this year even though SanDisk is not in the ETF! By the way, do you know what sector is up even more than SMH? 4. Oil Service Is the True 2026 King The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is now up 56% this year: As you probably know, this is thanks to the massive spike in oil prices following the invasion of Iran. And before that, the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Higher oil prices mean more potential oil projects get the green light. Plus, the greater the US’ influence on the world’s energy infrastructure, the more business there is for oil service companies. Just a few days ago, Reuters reported that oilfield service companies are dusting off equipment that was laying dormant in Venezuela. 5. Sentiment Is Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.1% of investors are bullish. This is smack-in-the-middle neutral, and a decline from last week’s bullish 46.0% reading. Meanwhile, in the options market, traders are leaning optimistic. The CBOE equity put/call ratio has been around 0.50 this week, signaling modest demand for put options. This is healthy to see. Equity markets roared back to life in April with 10%+ gains. But market participants are not going all-in. That means there’s still cash on the sidelines.
Continue Reading -->SanDisk: New Price Target Unleashed
We survived a crazy week in the market, and we’ve got another one coming up! Now let’s jump into what you really want to know: 1. Semiconductor Madness Is On, and JR Has a New SNDK Price Target This market is all about semiconductors. The SMH ETF is up over 30% in April, led by monsters like: Astera Labs (ALAB): +95% Intel (INTC): +83% AMD (AMD): +70% Marvell Technology (MRVL): +65% On Semiconductor (ON): +59% And SanDisk (SNDK), which is not in the SMH ETF, is up 56% to finally get past the $1,000 mark. Our own JR Romero predicted this in February: Now, JR sees SanDisk going to $1,298. (we recorded a video this afternoon, but due to an error by yours truly, it was erased) SMH’s RSI is now at 84+, so it looks overheated. But who wants to step in front of a freight train, especially ahead of a week where multiple tech giants may announce even more increases in capex spending. The fundamentals support the semis’ huge move. According to FactSet, Semiconductor revenues are expected to grow by a whopping 51% this quarter. And earnings are expected to grow 98%. Speaking of earnings… 2. Earnings Season Has Been Excellent According to FactSet, 28% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, and things are looking good. 84% of reporting companies beat earnings forecasts, and 81% beat on revenues. Both are above historical norms. Analysts expected 13.1% growth at the start of Q1. Now it’s tracking towards 15.1%. That number could push even higher given all the heavy-hitters yet to report like Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Plus, while tech is a huge driver of the aggregate numbers, every single S&P sector is reporting higher-than-expected earnings and revenues. For example, we’ve seen monster results from the likes of GE Vernova (GEV), FedEx (FDX), Newmont (NEM), and Baker Hughes (BHI). 3. It’s Time to Buckle Up If you thought this week was wild, buckle up! Because we’re about to get hit by: Rate Decisions from the FOMC, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England Earnings from tech giants Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), SanDisk, and more Additional reports from Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Robinhood (HOOD), Caterpillar (CAT), and Exxon (XOM) And this doesn’t even include what may happen in the Middle East! Here’s the full calendar: 4. Traders Turned Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 46.0% of investors are bullish for the next 6 months. This comes after 9 straight weeks of bearish readings. Meanwhile, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is at 66 showing modest greed. This is up from just 18 (extreme fear) one month ago. And as of Thursday’s close, the CBOE Equity Put-Call ratio was just 0.51, which means low demand for put options. This doesn’t mean investors and traders are euphoric. But all-time highs did cheer them up. 5. Avis Was One for the Ages, and Animal Spirits Are Here This week saw the end of the greatest short squeeze of 2026. In Avis Budget Group (CAR). Yes, the car rental company. The stock went from $100 to $847 in a month. And then it fell over $600 in two days. Not because the rental car market went wild. It’s because Deutsche Bank discovered that two investors controlled 108% of shares through derivatives layered on top of normal share ownership. Momentum buyers piled in, which attracted more momentum. And more and more and more until there was no one left to buy. Then everyone hit the exit button at once. This looked like a more extreme version of Allbirds (BIRD), which had its own wild short squeeze after announcing a transition from sneakers to “AI compute infrastructure.” I wish I was making that up. But between Avis, Allbirds, and the semis, one thing’s for sure. The animal spirits are alive.
Continue Reading -->Elon Musk Is Rocket Man!
What a week! Stocks hit record highs on hopes for peace in the Middle East, while Elon Musk has earned the title “Rocket Man.” So let’s dig into what you need to know right now: 1. QQQ Hits Lucky 13 What a Friday for tech! QQQ rose for the 13th straight day, with 2026 leaders like Seagate (STX), Western Digital (WDC) and Marvell (MRVL) making new all-time highs. Of course, the question now is “are we overextended?” The RSI on QQQ is now 74+, which has marked near-term tops in the past, like last October: This doesn’t mean we’re destined to crash. But things are overheated just as earnings season is heating up. And speaking of earnings, we have to talk about Tesla (TSLA), which reports Wednesday. 2. Tesla Is the Wildest Wild Card Right Now Tesla(TSLA) has had a brutal move off the lows heading into earnings on Wednesday, April 22. And it’s the wildest of wild cards in the market. Forget the fundamentals because the world is obsessed with SpaceX. And there is a non-zero chance Tesla benefits from the SpaceX IPO. Maybe Tesla gets folded into SpaceX. If Elon Musk even hints at hitching Tesla to SpaceX, Tesla is going to the moon. And based on surveys of the T3 Live audience, retail interest in SpaceX is sky-high. So everything Elon-related is getting bid up. JR Romero explains the situation here: And speaking of space, have you seen this? 3. Elon Musk Is Rocket Man! Space-related stocks have been flying this month, led by BlackSky Technology (BKSY) up 47.8% and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) up 46%. Interestingly, all these names aside from Rocket Lab (RKLB) are heavily shorted: This has created additional “rocket fuel” on top of anticipation for the SpaceX IPO. So I am declaring Elon Musk “Rocket Man.” Sorry Kim Jong Un. And since we’re looking at high-flying stuff.. 4. The Russell 2000 Is Dominating IWM is now up 12% year-to-date, crushing SPY and QQQ: And short squeezes look to be a big driver of the recent small-cap surge. We screened for the best-performing Russell 2000 stocks in April. As you can see, plenty have short interest over 10%: Like Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), which is up 118.6% this month on 13.0% short interest. And AMC (AMC), which popped over 93% with 15% short interest. 5. Record Highs, “Meh” Sentiment The S&P 500 hit a new record high at 7147 this afternoon. But is the crowd overjoyed? Nope. Sentiment remains “meh.” The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 31.7% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months. This is the 9th straight week of below-average bullishness. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed index climbed out of the cellar and is now 61. This means mild Greed. So overall, traders remains cautious considering equities’ shocking momentum. This is good news because tops are often (not not always) marked by overly bullish sentiment. We’re not even close to that. So the technicals look extended, sentiment is stuck in the middle. Quite the puzzle we have here.
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