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Heavy Metal Traders Are Getting Rich
Congratulations. You survived the first half of January. So it’s time for the 5 charts you need to see. Though there’s more than 5 this week: Heavy Metal Traders Are Getting Rich Metals won in 2025, and they’re winning again this year. But while everyone’s obsessed with the #silversqueeze, there is another dominant metal in 2026: uranium. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 26.5% this month, edging out the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The AI industry is driving demand for more nuclear power. And nuclear power providers need a lot more uranium, which is in short supply. Bank of America said uranium prices could rise by 50% by 2027, and named Cameco (CCJ) its number one pick. It’s been on fire this year: But uranium and silver are not the only metals winners. Copper, platinum, palladium, and lithium are all in uptrends. So this the year of heavy metal! Full disclosure: CCJ is one of my biggest personal equity holdings. But let’s talk about my biggest position, which isn’t doing as well as CCJ: Apple = Crapple Every time it looks like it’s waking up, Apple (AAPL) goes back to sleep. Look at this mess: Do you need indicators or squiggly lines to see how ugly this is? Now, I’m not selling my Apple because the company’s got two huge things going for it: Android is, um, not very cool The products all just work together It’s a good thing earnings are in two weeks, because we need resolution here. Either a screaming rally back to the highs, or a final death blow. This slow bleed is too painful to endure. If it’s gonna go down, let’s just get it over with! Small Caps Go on a Wild Ride We’ve been hearing about a small cap comeback for years. But it may be happening. The Russell 2000 is up over 8% in January while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up less than 2%. And there are tons of individual winners. ‘ As of Friday afternoon, 205 stocks in the Russell 2000 are up more than 20% this month. And 32 are up more than 50%. We can’t necessarily attribute this to lower rates because the Fed direction isn’t quite clear. So it looks like a combination of speculative juices and catch-up. Investors Are Getting Very Bullish The crowd is getting very bullish after a big rally from the December lows. According to the AAII Sentiment Survey, 49.5% investors are bullish: This is the highest bullish reading since November 14, 2024, which was right after President Trump’s election victory, which drove a massive surge in stocks. Interestingly, it seems that survey respondents are not concerned about all the chaos in the world, between Venezuela, Iran, the President going after Powell, uncertainty on the economy, etc. Or perhaps everyone’s just gotten used to chaos by now. Just keep in mind that timing the market using sentiment indicators is notoriously difficult. Happy times can last. Micron Earnings Estimates Are Insane Micron (MU) is up 249% over the past year, and if you want to know why, look at the power of a memory shortage. Earnings estimates have gone parabolic, as you can see in this chart. This is crazier than what we saw with Nvidia 3 years ago. In the past 12 months, FY2026 EPS estimates have gone from $11.24 to $32.67. Everybody from Nvidia (NVDA) to AMD (AMD) to Alphabet (GOOGL) is desperate for memory and prices are going through the roof. Crazy stuff.
Continue Reading -->5 Charts You Need to See: Nvidia the Value Stock?
We just closed out the first full trading week of the year, featuring new all-time highs, a crappy jobs report, and the Supreme Court failing to render a decision on President Trump’s tariffs. But we’re here with the 5 charts you need to see right now, covering Uranium, Nvidia (NVDA), and MORE! 1. Uranium Is Shocking the World… Again The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 18% YTD vs. +1.4% for $SPY. That’s after URA surged 67% last year. The latest catalyst was Meta (META) signing nuclear power deals with Vistra (VST) and Oklo (OKLO), plus the Bill Gates-backed TerraPower. This is a fascinating point in the AI cycle. Because it’s uncertain how long Nvidia (NVDA) can dominate chip performance. But it seems 100% certain that AI is sucking up a lot of electricity. And insider the uranium mining complex specifically, there is just not a lot of supply in terms of stocks to buy. Look at the market caps of the better-known uranium companies: Cameco (CCJ): $46 billion Uranium Energy (UEC): $7.1 billion Energy Fuels (UUUU): $4.3 billion Denison Mining (DNN): $2.9 billion And the URA ETF itself has just $6.3 billion in assets. 2. Nvidia: Value Stock? Traders and investors are increasingly focused on the skyrocketing “second-order” AI stocks in areas like nuclear power and memory. Former AI Kingpin Nvidia (NVDA) feels left behind to the point where it looks like a value stock, even though its earnings winning streak shows no sign of slowing. It’s trading at just 26.6 times forward earnings. Meanwhile, Costco (COST) trades at 45 times earnings. Meanwhile, Nvidia is expected to grow earnings by 57% this year. For Costco, it’s 11%. 3. Apple’s Big Oversold Signal Apple (AAPL) is the second most oversold stock in the Nasdaq 100/QQQ, based on RSI: That reading is nearing the April 2025 lows after the Liberation Day selloff. Traders are worried about a myriad of issues including a China slowdown, skyrocketing memory costs, and Tim Cook possibly slowing down. There’s always chatter about the company being behind in AI… but how many people are dropping Apple devices over that? I mean, I can use ChatGPT and Gemini and Grok and whatever else on my iPhone. Right? With the stock this oversold and the chatter so negative, perhaps it’s time for a bounce. And the one QQQ stock more oversold than Apple (AAPL)? It’s Netflix (NFLX), which has been beaten down because of the Warner Brothers acquisition drama. 4. PayPal Is Sitting on Major Support PayPay (PYPL) can be one of the most frustrating stocks in the market. It operates in two modes: High-speed uptrend Value trap disaster And now it’s sitting on major support around $57, which is above the 2023 low around $50. Could there be $7 of risk down, and $30 up? At less than 11 times forward earnings, this is one stock we have to watch. 5. OIH Is the ETF to Watch Following President Trump’s presumed takeover of the Venezuela oil industry, the VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is the ETF to watch. Because the companies in the OIH make the equipment and technology that gets oil out of the ground. And you have to think these companies are about to land some big fat contracts. On Monday, OIH made the “Gap of the Year” on the Venezuela news. And that gap held:
Continue Reading -->All Hail the AI King
It’s 2026. So let’s dig into the hot stories we’re watching for the New Year. 1. All Hail the AI King Two weeks ago, I declared memory giant Micron (MU) “the new AI champion” courtesy of its shocking guidance. It’s up almost 20% since then with a big fat gain to start 2026. And of course, I don’t own it. Micron wasn’t the only winner on the memory/storage side of the AI trade today. Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Lam Research (LRCX), all big winners last year, also posted huge gains today. Now let’s talk about the the other secondary AI trade. 2. Uranium Is Going Wild, and Nobody’s In It The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) had a monster gain in 2025, and rose over 7% today. The bull market case here is very simple. The world is becoming more nuclear friendly, and AI is driving record demand for electricity. And you can’t have nuclear power without uranium. But the most interesting thing about uranium is how little money appears to be invested in it. The #1 company in the industry, Cameco (CCJ), has a market cap of just $42.9 billion. The URA ETF has just $5.3 billion in assets. And the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) has $1.7 billion in assets. For comparison, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has $37.3 billion in assets. 3. You People Love Tesla We recently surveyed the T3 Live community and asked what your favorite stock was. The #1 name across the board was Tesla (TSLA), which had a stinky day after reporting weak delivery numbers. Alphabet (GOOGL) was in second place, but it wasn’t even close. We also asked traders which IPO they were most excited about: OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic. Elon Musk’s SpaceX was the overwhelming favorite at 65.8%. OpenAI was in second at 27.6%. Just 3.9% chose Anthropic. So the Cult of Elon is not going anywhere. And you can count me in that camp because I’m still long Tesla. 4. Traders and Investors Are Bullish Traders are investors to start the New Year. In our own survey, 82.9% of respondents said the S&P 500 will rise in 2026. And AAII’s Sentiment Survey showed that 42.0% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months: This was the fourth bullish reading in the past 5 weeks. 5. If You Believe in Crypto Miracles… Look at This As we told you two weeks ago, short interest on crypto-related equities like Strategy (MSTR) and Bitmine Immersion Technology (BMNR) is sky-high. All of these names put in big gains today, with Bitmine leading the way. If you are bullish on crypto, you better put these names on the radar because we will see some wild short squeezes. 6. XLE Has Been Waking Up If you watch the energy sector long enough, you’re at risk of falling asleep. But… it’s getting less boring. As you can see in this weekly chart, XLE has been in a slow-motion uptrend since April and it’s about to bang up against resistance around $47: Keep an eye on it. This could be the next big sector to run. 7. Earnings Expectations Are High According to FactSet, Q4 earnings estimates rose 0.4% throughout last quarter. That bucks the typical pattern of estimates declining by 1.6%. Analysts now expect 13.1% earnings growth in Q1. The tech sector has seen the largest increase in estimates, which is no surprise because the big boys like Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) have dropped one beat after another. So the bar is higher than we’ve seen in recent quarters. And the higher the bar, the harder it is to get those big beats. 8. You Can Get David Prince’s 2026 Game Plan FREE As a bonus for our community, David Prince of the Inner Circle VTF® released his 2026 strategy report to the public. Download it right here.
Continue Reading -->Your 2 Favorite Stocks: 1 Cult Name, 1 AI Surprise
T3 Live recently held a community stock market survey to figure out what you think will happen in 2026. While this might not be the most scientific survey in the world, we think the results are interesting. Here’s what we saw: Traders Are Bullish, Especially on Tech The market is coming off its third straight year of big gains, and our audience expects the good times to roll. 82.9% of respondents believe the S&P 500 will rise in 2026. As far as which index will do best, traders are leaning towards the Nasdaq. 32.6% of respondents said the Nasdaq will have the highest percentage gain in 2026, followed by 32.5% favoring the Russell 2000. However, traders do expect at least one pullback. 56.6% said they expect at least one 20% SPX drawdown in 2026. The Stocks People Like for 2026 When asked to name their favorite stocks for next year, Tesla (TSLA) came up by far the most often. Alphabet (GOOGL) came in second place, but it was not even close. So the cult of Elon Musk is as alive as ever, which relates to the IPO everyone is waiting for. (more on this below) We also asked which Mag 7 stock would do best in 2026, and here’s how the distribution played out: Alphabet (GOOGL): 30.3% Tesla (TSLA): 27.6% Amazon (AMZN): 18.4% Nvidia (NVDA): 13.2% Apple (AAPL): 5.3% Microsoft (MSFT): 3.9% Meta Platforms (META): 1.3% Why is GOOGL on top? Two reasons. First, it’s the #1 Mag 7 name this year with a 66% gain: Second, it emerged as a surprise AI powerhouse thanks to its homemade TPU chips. But it’s interesting that so few people like META. Could that be the ultimate contrarian play? It’s by far the cheapest name on a valuation basis: A Look at Sector Preferences We asked which sectors would do best and worst in 2026, and we’ll list the top 5 in each category: We’ll start with the 5 favorites: Tech: 26.7% Energy: 17.3% Gold/Silver: 16.0% Biotech: 9.3% Financials: 8.0% With traders favoring the Nasdaq for 2026, it’s no surprise tech is on top. And gold/silver and biotech have been on fire. So the most interesting finding here is the love for Energy, even though it’s been a major laggard in 2026: And here are the sectors people think will do worst: Housing: 18.2% Real Estate: 15.6% Tech: 14.3% Crypto: 14.3% Gold/Silver: 10.4% The dominance of Housing and Real Estate here implies traders see economic troubles ahead. You likely noticed that Tech and Gold/Silver are on both lists. It makes sense because tech is the biggest part of the market so it always gets attention. Plus, Gold/Silver have gotten tons of attention in 2026, and people tend to have strong opinions on metals. Thoughts on the Fed 59.2% of respondents believe Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. 19.7% see Christopher Waller taking the spot, and 18.3% went with Kevin Warsh. As far as rates go, 100% expect rate cuts in 2026. 38.7% expect 0.50% in cuts, with 22.7% expecting 0.75%, and 14.7% expecting a full 1.00% in cuts. What Will Move Stocks in 2026? We asked our community to rank these factors based on their expected impact on the US stock market: Fed Policy Inflation US Government Policy Geopolitical Conflicts Corporate Earnings There were no real standouts here. Traders ranked these factors pretty much the same across the board. So it’s hard to point to one single narrative that people are grasping onto. The market is torn on what matters most. Everyone Wants SpaceX We asked traders which IPO they were most excited about: OpenAI, SpaceX, or Anthropic. SpaceX was the overwhelming favorite at 65.8%. OpenAI was in second at 27.6%. Just 3.9% chose Anthropic. To Recap… Here are the biggest takeaways: Traders are bullish, especially on tech Housing and Real Estate are hated The cult of Elon Musk and Tesla (TSLA) is as strong as ever Meta (META) is a contrarian play to watch The market is torn on the biggest drivers of 2026 Happy New Year Folks!
Continue Reading -->This Is the New AI Champion
We’re coming off another week of fun market action marked by a light CPI report, a massive surge for Tesla (TSLA), and a newly crowed King of AI. So let’s dig in to the 10 things you need to know about markets right now. 1. Micron (MU) Is Your New AI Champion Nvidia (NVDA) had its time in the sun. Then Oracle (ORCL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) took the reins. But memory giant Micron (MU) became the new AI champion after reporting strong earnings on Wednesday along with shocking guidance. Earnings estimates went through the roof. Analysts now expect EPS of $19.61 this year, up from $12.77 pre-earnings. That’s an increase of 53%. And since estimates went up so much, its forward P/E is now at 7: Many folks are wondering why it trades at such a cheap valuation. First, single-digit P/E ratios for Micron are nothing new. And second, the memory market is extremely cyclical, so there’s always the question of when peak earnings happen. Because at some point, earnings estimates can contract just as fast. But good luck trying to figure out when, because the AI industry is sucking up memory like nothing we’ve seen before. 2. Oracle Played the Best Possible Card We’ve talked for weeks about Oracle’s (ORCL) meltdown on worries over its debt load and the sustainability of the AI growth cycle. But it surged big-time on Friday on news TikTok would sell its US operations to an Oracle-led joint venture. So for now, the market’s assuming the financial benefits of the TikTok investment offset concerns about the strength of Oracle’s AI business – particularly, the dependence upon OpenAI. This may have been the best possible card to play because of TikTok’s growth potential. 3. OpenAI May Be Worth More Than These Companies This week, we heard a string of news reports saying OpenAI is in talks to raise a whole ton of capital, which it needs to pay off its obligations to Oracle (ORCL). A Wall Street Journal report said this latest funding round could value OpenAI at $830 billion. That would make OpenAI worth more than Oracle itself, along with: Visa (V) Mastercard (MA) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) ExxonMobil (XOM) Palantir (PLTR) Netflix (NFLX) Bank of America (BAC) Costco (COST) Home Depot (HD) AMD (AMD) And plenty of other household names. At some point, OpenAI will come public. The tough part will be timing because who knows how far it will be in its growth cycle by then? The way things are going, OpenAI could IPO at a multi-trillion dollar valuation! 4. Biotech Is the Quiet Crusher Traders waited for years for Biotech to play catch-up to the major averages. And 2025’s been a banner year for XBI. Over the past 6 months, XBI has risen over 48%, crushing SPY and QQQ: Lower rates certainly helped, as did strong M&A activity and successful clinical trials. There may also be a simple catch-up factor here. If we take the same chart and wind it back 10 years, XBI is miles behind: 5. Coinbase Is Coming for Robinhood This week, crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) announced it’s beefing up its offerings by adding stock trading and prediction markets to its feature stack. Coinbase wants to be a one-stop financial app, which makes sense given its reliance upon the ever-volatile crypto markets. With Bitcoin and Ethereum well off their October highs, Coinbase stock is down -2.4% year-to-date. More equities-focused competitors like Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and Charles Schwab (SCHW) are up huge: Since we’re talking about the crypto mess, let’s take a look at the ETF leaderboard: 6. Bitcoin and Ethereum Are Way Behind I don’t know about you, but I don’t see how these four things can be true at once: The Fed is cutting rates SMH is up 48% YTD XBI is up 37% YTD Bitcoin and Ethereum are down YTD Yet the numbers don’t lie: If you can explain this, I’m all ears. But if crypto is about to make a comeback, it will probably be vicious – especially on the equity side. 7. Crypto Stock Short Interest Is Sky-High Short interest is high across the board on crypto-related equities like Strategy (MSTR) and Bitmine Immersion Technology (BMNR): Now, I’m not interested in playing with this dynamite myself just yet. But if you are bullish on crypto, you have to think we see some epic short squeezes in these names. Who knows? Maybe Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, and their followers, will be rewarded for their bullishness in the end. 8. Tesla’s Comeback Has Been Stunning Tesla (TSLA) hit a record high at $495.28 Wednesday to break its prior record high from last December. That put it up 131% from the April lows to reward the faithful: Tesla’s latest catalyst was Robotaxi hype. And investors once again forgave this company’s unique combo of high valuation and questionable fundamentals. Meanwhile, analysts are still rolling their eyes at the stock. Their average target price is just $395.73: 9. Nike Has Some Bizarre Stats Shoemaker Nike (NKE) got smashed Friday after earnings. But here’s the wild thing about Nike. It’s actually beaten earnings estimates for 10 straight quarters. And the average upside surprise was 37.4%: Of course, the problem is that Nike’s actual earnings are shrinking. So it’s dropping huge earnings beats, but no actual growth. Weird. 10. JR Is Behind Reddit On Wednesday, JR Romero laid out the bull case for Reddit (RDDT). And it’s already started creeping up. See why he likes this stock so much;
Continue Reading -->Joe Rogan and the AI Curse
The AI trade feels cursed. And we can blame Joe Rogan. Just a little bit. 1. Joe Rogan and the Magazine Cover Indicator 2.0 AI stocks act like trash. Exactly when we see Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang appearing on the Joe Rogan Experience: And Time Magazine naming “the Architects of AI” like OpenAI’s Sam Altman Person of the Year: The magazine cover indicator says that major magazine cover stories sometimes mark tops or bottoms. Emphasis on sometimes because this is pure anecdote. The best known example is BusinessWeek’s “Death of Equities” cover back in 1979. Now AI stocks are getting trashed precisely when there’s wide mainstream celebration of industry leaders like Jensen Huang. And yes folks, the Joe Rogan Experience is the #1 podcast on Earth, which makes it mainstream media: 2. Oracle Is a Mess On November 7, I said Oracle has the ugliest chart in the world. It’s getting uglier. The stock gapped down Thursday after a revenue miss. And it came under more pressure Friday on a Bloomberg report that it’s pushing back completion dates for some of its AI data centers to 2028 from 2027. Who are those data centers allegedly for? OpenAI. Which accounts for $300 billion of Oracle’s customer commitments. And which recently declared a “code red” to counter Google’s Gemini 3 AI model. So the market doubts Oracle can service its growing debt load and hit its long-term growth targets. Result: the stock is down 45% from its September high. And Oracle’s not alone in what feels like a cursed sector: 3. Broadcom Got Decimated Broadcom (AVGO) delivered its 23rd straight earnings beat on Thursday. And the stock’s down over 10% Friday because guidance was strong – but not strong enough. Kudos to JR Romero, who screamed sell at $413 on Wednesday: Remember, Nvidia’s (NVDA) November earnings report was impressive, no doubt. But that stock’s been stuck in the mud. So when you add this all up, the AI trade is in Season 1 Tony Soprano mode: “It’s good to be in something from the ground floor. I came too late for that and I know. But lately, I’m getting the feeling that I came in at the end. The best is over.” In AI, the “Fear Of Missing Out” is dead. The dominant theme is now “The Fear I’m the Last Sucker In.” Industry fundamentals appear strong. But the stocks act like things are about to fall apart. 4. This Valuation Statistic Is Hilarious If AI is supposed to be the next big thing… why is Costco (COST) a more expensive stock than Nvidia (NVDA)? Costco is trading at 42.8 times earnings and Nvidia’s at 25.5. Even though Nvidia is growing 6 times faster. The market is treating Costco as a pillar of stability, which makes sense. And it’s treating Nvidia as a risky cyclical. By the way, could AI stocks have bottomed right when I wrote this article? Stranger things have happened. 5. IWM’s Comeback Has Been Amazing Small caps lagged for years… but they’re catching up. As the Fed’s cut rates and became more dovish, IWM has almost caught up to SPY. They’re just about neck and neck in 2025: Now let’s turn the clock back 10 years. IWM has a TON of room to play catch-up if this trend is to continue. SPY has outperformed it by almost double: 6. The Rate Cut Picture Since the Fed just cut rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, let’s take a look at the next FOMC meeting in January. The market is pricing in a mere 22% chance of a rate cut in January: The market is pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, while the Fed itself expects one. The deciding factor may be who President Trump names as Fed Chair and Vice Chair next year. The President has been vocal in calling for lower rates, so odds are he’s looking for the biggest dove possible. Note that even if Jerome Powell exits the chairman’s throne, he may remain a governor on the Board. 7. Investors Are Bullish The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.6% of investors are bullish: This is the second straight week of above-average bullishness. And it makes sense considering how fast we came off the November 21 lows. Meanwhile, the VIX remains at historically low levels, which is normal for a tight bull market like the current one. 8. Crypto Is The Worst Sector of 2025 We took a look at our handy dandy ETF tracker: It’s quite odd that Bitcoin and Ethereum are down while rates are falling, and while risky stock sectors like semiconductors and biotech are up like mad. And interestingly, the falloff only happened after the crypto peak in October: Could this be a dark harbinger for risk assets? Time will tell. 9. The Slop Bowl Stocks Are Back We’ve talked quite a bit about the “Slop Bowl Bear Market.” But these stocks are rocking December: Sweetgreen (SG) is up 40.8% this month and Chipotle (CMG) and Cava (CAVA) are coming back fast. These could be classic January effect plays, rallying in anticipation of the end of tax loss selling. Could Starbucks (SBUX) be next to go? It’s kinda sorta in the same family of “basic luxury” stocks. 10. One Bull’s Case JR Romero remains bullish on the market and predicts the SPX will hit 7200 before year-end. Here’s a look back from two weeks ago, when he reminded us there was no real bear case:
Continue Reading -->The New Ugliest Chart in the World (Sorry Oracle)
We closed out another fun week in the markets so it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know, starting with… 1. Oracle May No Longer Have the Ugliest Chart in the World Last week, I said “Oracle Has the Ugliest Chart in the World” and it got uglier this week before a Friday stick-save. As of Frida morning, Oracle had dropped 39% from its post-earnings high: BUT… Oracle staged a powerful rally on Friday to end the day green. Trend change? Who knows. But for now, Oracle no longer has the ugliest chart in the world. Full disclosure: I went long Oracle (ORCL) calls Thursday and got out the same day for a loss. So I completely missed the Friday rebound. My bottom-fishing grade for the week is an F-. 2. But Oracle Has Competition… The major indices are just a few percentage points off their all-time highs, thanks to stability in the banks plus a few select index superheavyweights like Apple (AAPL). But below the surface, things are quite nasty, especially for super-speculative growth stocks. We’ve extensively covered the boom in low revenue, high valuation stocks like Oklo (OKLO) and IonQ (IONQ). They are no longer flying high. Many of these names have fallen more than 50% from their highs, like: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR): -78% Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT): -73% Rigetti Computing (RGTI): -59% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): -53% Oklo (OKLO): -49% Pony AI (PONY): -47% IONQ (IONQ): -47% So based on these numbers… BMNR is the ugliest of them all: 3. Expect an Assault on Tom Lee, Owner of the Ugliest Chart in the World The media loves to build up heroes and then tear them down. It happened from 2000 to 2022 with Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, who heads up the iconic ARKK ETF. The knives are about to come out for Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who has been the biggest public face of this equity and crypto bull market. Lee is Chairman of crypto treasury name Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which is cratering: If this bull market is indeed done, Tom Lee will be the #1 scapegoat for people taking too much risk. 4. Remember Microstrategy Crypto currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have also been taken to the woodshed. One of the biggest stories of the week was Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark with authority. And as you’d expect, related equities got smashed. We took a 3-year lookback at Bitcoin vs. the artist formerly known as MicroStrategy – Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR): MicroStrategy, I mean Strategy, used to trade at a massive premium to its underlying Bitcoin holdings. And as such, Strategy has been playing massive downside catch-up to Bitcoin itself. No mas. The love story is over. 5. Fed, Schmed When Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed, the dovish mood soured fast. Now the CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 43.6% chance of a December rate cut. That’s down from 66.9% last week, and 94.4% a month ago. So if you’ve wondered why rate-sensitive speculative stocks have been slapped around, this is it. 6. Biotech and Health Care Have RULED Biotech and Health Care have lagged the major indices for years. As traders and investors rotated out of tech and high-growth names, biotech and health care have shined in Q4: Biotech (XBI) is up 16% while Health Care (XLV) popped 12%. While SPY is barely green. So Jim Cramer was right. There really is always a bull market somewhere. 7. Sentiment Has Shifted Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 31.6% of investors are bullish on stocks for the next 6 months. This is well below the long-term average of 37.5%. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment is at 49.1%. Investors have not been this bearish since September 10. And it makes sense, with all the meltdowns we’re seeing. If things stay weak, sentiment still has plenty of room to deteriorate further. 8. The VIX Is Nowhere Near Extreme The VIX is up in reaction to the rise in volatility. But it’s nowhere near extreme, like in April when we had the big post-Liberation Day tariff meltdown. And the VIX isn’t even close to the peak in mid-October, when regional bank worries were at the forefront: 9. Apple Is Made of Steel As noted above, Apple’s (AAPL) shocking stability has helped keep the indices elevated. It’s the only Mag 7 stock that’s positive in November: But why? Well, we’re past what was a pretty strong earnings report. And AI names have been getting trashed. So Apple’s supposed failure in AI is now a benefit. By the way, Apple is an AI superpower. Because people can download apps onto their Apple devices. And voilà! Meanwhile, try telling your kids they have to switch to Android. And see how fast they cry. 10. If Your Account Is Small, Try Options If your account is on the small side and you’re looking to build up to a bigger stake, it’s time to consider options. David Prince of the Inner Circle VTF® explains why:
Continue Reading -->The Ugliest Chart in the World
We closed out another fun week in the markets so it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know, starting with… 1. Oracle Has the Ugliest Chart in the World Oracle (ORCL) did all the right stuff. They had big earnings. Raised guidance. Announced a massive deal with OpenAI. But after all that positivity, the stock put in a slow-motion “sell the news” decline that erased that massive September earnings gap: The stock is now 32% off the highs, make this the ugliest chart in the world right now. Meanwhile, CDS just hit 2-year highs. Why? The market is starting to wonder how OpenAI can spend hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure. Speaking of ugly 2. SPX Breaks the 50 Day Today, the S&P 500 Index fell below the 50 day moving average for the first time since April. Why? Well, aside from normal profit-taking after a monster rally, we’ve got a shut down government, falling odds of a December rate cut (more on this below), weak consumer sentiment, and real questions about the sustainability of the AI boom. The party can’t go on forever. 3. No 100% Rate Cut Guarantee for You Fed Chair Powell said a December rate cut is not guaranteed. And now the CME’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 72.2% probability of another easing: This is down from 82% a month ago. The result: pressure on rate sensitive sectors like speculative small caps and homebuilders. 4. Earnings Season Has Been Pretty Good This earnings season has had its fair share of messes (we’ll get to this in a minute), but the numbers look good overall. According to FactSet, 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates, and 79% have beaten revenue estimates. And overall earnings growth is tracking at 10.7%, beating the 7.9% expected back on September 30. Sector-wise, the financials have been the biggest contributor to increase in growth, with big boys like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Capital One (COF) dropping huge beats. 5. The Collapse in Basic Luxury DoorDash (DASH) was a monster stock until it tanked on Wednesday after an earnings miss. And this fits a notable trend in weak earnings for consumer stocks offering “basic luxuries” like: Starbucks (SBUX) – expensive fancy coffee Lululemon (LULU) – expensive yoga pants Chipotle (CMG) & Cava (CAVA) & SweetGreen (SG) – expensive slop bowls This ain’t pretty: 6. Sentiment Is Mixed Up The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.0% of investors are bullish. This is down from 44.0% last week. And it’s basically in-line with the long-term average of 38.5%. On balance, this is positive. Because with the market feeling like it’s on right on the edge of falling, it’s good to see doubt. And on a related note, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 14, reading Extreme Fear. That’s more a product of how F&G is calculated, and doesn’t necessarily mean the market is freaked out. We can all agree people are cautious at best. 7. Sydney Sweeney Is Still Winning American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) got a monster boost from its “Great Jeans” ad campaign in August. The obvious question to ask was “will this last?” And so far, the answer is YES. AEO popped when the campaign was released, then had a monster short squeeze after earnings. It looked like it was filling the gap, but it’s since rebounded. AEO stock is now up 57% from when it announced the campaign. Hopefully, Ms. Sweeney was paid in stock! 8. Cracker Barrel Is Still Losing Since we’re on the topic of culture wars, let’s take a fresh look at restaurant chain Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which enraged its customers by unveiling a new menu and logo in August. The company reversed course and brought back the old stuff, but that hasn’t helped: This might be uglier than Oracle! 9. Apple Is the King Safety Play Remember when Apple (AAPL) was viewed as a tech laggard because it was behind in AI? Well, as I might remind you, you can download any number of AI apps like ChatGPT, Grok, Perplexity, etc. to your Apple devices. BOOM! You have AI on your iPhone. And again, I suggest telling your kids “Apple is behind in AI, so we’re taking away your iPhone and giving you an Android phone.” See how fast you get slapped in the face. And if you look at the past 3 months, Apple has been crushing the QQQ’s: And yes, it’s good that Apple is working with Google to bring AI features to Siri. But what matters for Apple is that the average person has no reason to leave the ecosystem. And no matter how many negative news stories get planted, iPhones just keep on selling. That makes Apple the King Safety Play. 10. How to Trade Like a Red-Blooded American JR Romero came to America with nothing. Then he made and lost MILLIONS of dollars in the dot-com crash. Now he’s a full-time pro trader who also runs 2 amazing trading rooms. This is your chance to learn the secrets and mindset behind his success. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE. But first, watch the interview:
Continue Reading -->Amazon Saves the Bull Market + 9 Other Things You Need to Know
The Fed spooked the market this week about future rate cuts but big-tech earnings came in to save the day and keep the bulls running. Now it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. More Rate Cuts Aren’t Guaranteed Markets got the 25 basis point rate cut they were expecting from the Fed this week… but Chairman Jerome Powell quickly threw some cold water on future expectations. In his press conference, Powell said another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion.” As of October 31, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows just under 65% of traders now expect a 25bp cut at the December meeting. 2. Amazon is the MAG7 Earnings Winner Amazon (AMZN) shares shot higher on Friday after beating Q3 expectations across the board Thursday. Here’s a look at how the company’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Earnings per share: $1.95 vs. $1.57 estimated Revenue: $180.17 billion vs. $177.8 billion estimated Amazon Web Services Revenue: $33 billion vs. $32.42 billion expected Advertising Revenue: $17.7 billion vs. $17.34 billion expected In a statement, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that AWS is “growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022.” “We continue to see strong demand in AI and core infrastructure, and we’ve been focused on accelerating capacity — adding more than 3.8 gigawatts in the past 12 months” – Andy Jassy That seemed to temper market concerns about the company’s cloud business which have weighed on the stock this year. AMZN has been underperforming its MAG7 peers in 2025, up just 0.7% for the year as of Thursday’s close. 3. Is the AI Trade Unwinding? One reaction to this week’s big tech earnings seemed key to the future of the AI trade theme. Meta Platforms (META) tumbled as increased AI spending overshadowed strong Q3 results for the company. The social media giant hiked its capital expenditure guidance for 2025 to a range between $70 billion and $72 billion vs $66 billion to $72 billion previously. On the earnings call, CEO Mark Zuckerberg defended the massive spending. “It’s pretty early, but I think we’re seeing the returns in the core business. That’s giving us a lot of confidence that we should be investing a lot more, and we want to make sure that we’re not underinvesting.” -Zuckerberg This appears to be the first negative market reaction to big spending on AI… with companies previously being rewarded for such investments. But maybe that’s just a META thing… 4. Nvidia CEO: AI Is In A Virtuous Cycle Speaking at the APEC CEO Summit in South Korea on Friday, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said AI has reached a “virtuous cycle”. “The AIs get better. More people use it. More people use it, it makes more profit, creates more factories, which allows us to create even better AIs, which allows more people to use it. The virtual cycle of AI has been designed, and this is … the reason why you’re seeing the world’s capex going so fast.” -Jensen Huang Basically, demand creates more products, which creates more demand, and more products, and more demand, and more products, and so on. Take a listen to Jensen’s speech below: 5. More Important Earnings Are Ahead This will be another packed week of earnings reports. Highlights include: Monday PM: Palantir (PLTR), Hims and Hers (HIMS) Tuesday AM: Shopify (SHOP), Uber Technologies (UBER), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify (SPOT) Tuesday PM: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Astera Labs (ALAB), Pinterest (PINS) Wednesday AM: McDonald’s (MCD) Wednesday PM: Applovin (APP), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Robinhood (HOOD), Doordash (DASH) Thursday PM: Airbnb (ABNB), Block (XYZ), Trade Desk (TTD), Affirm (AFRM) 6. It’s Jobs Week… With No Jobs Report The government is still shutdown, which means next week’s October nonfarm payrolls report won’t be released. The September JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday also isn’t likely to be published. That puts all eyes on ADP’s Private Employment Report at 8:30am ET on Wednesday. For now that appears to be the only number the market will be getting to determine the health of the labor market. Here’s the full calendar for the week: 7. Trade Truce Between the U.S. and China President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping came to a trade truce this week. The two leaders met at the ASEAN Summit in South Korea on Thursday. The agreement includes: A one-year pause of Beijing’s rare earth export controls The U.S. cut fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% from 20% China’s original announcement of rare earth export controls on October 9th sparked the latest round of the trade war with Trump threatening 100% tariffs. But China quickly came to the table for negotiations after that threat. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One after his meeting with Xi that the rare earths agreement will be “very routinely extended as time goes by.” “We have a deal. Now, every year we’ll renegotiate the deal, but I think the deal will go on for a long time, long beyond the year. But all of the rare earth has been settled, and that’s for the world.” -Trump The lower fentanyl tariffs reduces the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods to around 47%. Trump said he will visit China in April and Xi will come to the U.S. at a later date. 8. Sentiment Turns Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 44.0% of investors are bullish. That was up 7.2 points from the week before and higher than the historical average of 37.5% for the fifth time in the past seven weeks. 9. Netflix Announces Stock Split Netflix (NFLX) stock is about to become more accessible for the retail community. The company announced a 10-for-1 stock split after hours on Thursday. Netflix will issue 9 additional shares for every one share held on November 10. The stock will then begin trading on a split-adjusted basis at the market open on November 17. Netflix said the move will make its stock more accessible to employees participating in its stock option program. 10. David Prince Teaches You How Small Accounts Should Use Options David Prince, the leader of T3 Live’s Inner Circle VTF®, often uses options to add Alpha to a stock
Continue Reading -->2 Biggest Days Ever + 9 Other Things You Need to Know Right Now
We closed out another big week in markets with the SPX and QQQ hitting record highs after the light CPI report. So it’s time to look ahead with the 10 things you need to know: 1. The Rate Cuts Are Coming Thanks to the government shutdown, we’ve been waiting forever for a CPI report. We finally got one Friday, and the numbers were lighter-than-expected. The headline number grew by 3.0%. That’s not low, but at least it was below the consensus estimate. Now, traders are pricing in a 97% chance of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday, October 29, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. And 94% of traders expect a total of 50 bp in cuts by year-end. Speaking of next Wednesday… 2. The Tech Megapowers Report Earnings Here’s a partial list of the companies reporting on Wednesday and Thursday: Wednesday: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META) Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) That’s 5 of the Mag 7, and they represent 22.5% of the S&P 500 index. So far, Q3 earnings season has been stronger than expected (even with rising earnings estimates), and these names could seal the deal on how things turn out overall. So between the Fed and all these earnings reports (plus ones we haven’t mentioned like CAT/LLY/MA), this looks like 2 of the biggest trading days of all time! And oh yeah… we also get the PCE Price Index, plus Japan and Canada’s rate decisions, and Eurozone CPI. Here’s the full calendar: 3. It Could Be Make or Break Time for Nvidia All those big tech earnings reports will have a big impact on Nvidia (NVDA). AI powerhouses like OpenAI, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and CoreWeave (CRWV) have been sucking down AI chips like crazy. And Nvidia longs want confirmation that the spending spree will continue. Especially since it looks like AMD (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO) may be taking bigger pieces of the pie. So Nvidia will move big based on the capex forecasts of these tech giants. It’s the biggest potential catalyst until earnings on November 19. 4. Tony Robbins Is Your New AI Guy I am an AI skeptic, because I question the real-world financial value of all the big AI investments we see. Now, I see that the nation’s #1 Life and Business Strategist (his words, not mine) Tony Robbins is hosting an “AI Advantage Summit:”Now, I have nothing against Tony Robbins. I agree with a lot of what he says. But isn’t this the type of thing you see closer to a top than a bottom? It makes me worry. 5. Sentiment Is… MEH The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of investors are bullish. This is more-or-less neutral, and up slightly from last week. And it makes sense because market participants are in a state of confusion because of: An earnings season that feels all over the place, at least in terms of reactions Minimal economic data because of the government shutdown The nonstop news flow out of the White House And speaking of sentiment… 6. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index Is Not Broken As of early Friday afternoon, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index was at 34, indicating Fear. Is it broken as many market participants think? With markets at record things, sentiment should at least be neutral, like AAII is. Right? Remember, it’s normal for sentiment to be neutral when market is going up amid a confusing news flow. Also, Fear & Greed is not determined by a survey, but 7 market indicators including things like Junk Bond Demand: Maybe you don’t find it useful, but it’s not broken. It’s just spitting out what the recipe says. And speaking of sentiment one more time, trader JC Parets posted a poignant Tweet on Wednesday: 7. Do Books About the 1929 Crash Come Out at the Top? Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book “1929” hit the New York Times best-seller list. And JC had the most interesting reaction: Reading this new book about the 1929 crash has me wondering… do books like this usually come out right before a market crash, or when bull markets still have plenty of gas left? https://t.co/M1BqbSZlZi — J.C. Parets (@JC_ParetsX) October 22, 2025 So if most traditional indicators are reading neutral, and we have a best-selling book about 1929 out, and the market’s at record highs we can conclude that… Nobody knows where sentiment is right now. It’s a mess. 8. Extended Hours Options Trading May Be Coming Soon I recently suggested that option tradings hours should be extended, because it would be a huge convenience during earnings season: While I can’t confirm it for sure, I will assume the CBOE saw the video (it does have a whopping 125 views), because they filed a proposal with the SEC to extend hours for equity options trading. According to the filing, the CBOE would add a morning session from 7:30 to 9:25 am ET, plus an afternoon session from 4 to 4:15 pm ET. I guess it’s fair to give options traders a 5-minute potty break at 9:25, right? Now if only Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA) would report earnings before 4:15 pm ET so their options could fit into that afternoon window… 9. Biotech Has Been on Fire One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed’s dovish leaning has been biotech. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is the #1 major ETF in October, and it’s now up almost 21% year-to-date. But if you want to see the really hot stuff, look at heavily-shorted small and mid-cap biotechs. We used Koyfin to screen for biotechs with a market cap of $500 million to $5 billion, and short interest above 10%. Many are up 30%+ this month alone: 10. You Too Can Be a Sultan of Swing Trading! JR Romero recently unveiled his swing trading secrets in this exclusive webinar. Want all his ideas AND 3 months of Koyfin software? GO HERE.
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