All posts by T3 Live
DWAC: 8 Things You Need to Know About This Meme Stock Monster
What was the biggest story in the stock market this week? Tesla’s (TSLA) big earnings beat? Intel’s (INTC) giant miss? Evergrande defaulting on debt payments? inflation? The broken global supply chain? NO. The biggest story in the market was… DWAC. Yes… Digital World Acquisition (DWAC), which became the biggest meme stock on planet Earth. Here’s what you need to know:Trump + SPAC + #wallstreetbets = BOOMThe #memestock boom began in early 2021 when traders on Reddit and other social platforms started piling into a small number of story-based stocks like AMC (AMC) and GameStop (GME). Look at this long-term monthly chart of GameStop:In December 2007 before the housing crash, GameStop hit a then record high of $63.77. The video game retail business was BOOMING thanks to the emergence of Halo, Call of Duty, and Guitar Hero. (ain’t that a blast from the past? But thanks to #wallstreetbets and the meme stock boom, GameStop hit $483 in early 2021 — while the business was clearly in decline. The meme stock universe is always hungry for hot, crazy, fast-moving stocks, especially when there’s some kind of populist or antiestablishment theme. These people do not want to hear about fundamentals and market caps and enterprise value and earnings. These traders want to strap themselves to a rocket and make fast cash, especially when there’s a chance to go against the Wall Street establishment. Now let’s tie in DWAC. On Wednesday night, former President Donald Trump announced he formed a new company called Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) which would merge with the SPAC Digital World Acquisition Company, which trades under the ticker DWAC. And just like that, a meme stock was born. What made DWAC a meme stock? 3 things: 1) DWAC/TMTG’s business model, the centerpiece of which is a platform called “Truth Social,” was mocked. Mostly for claiming Truth Social would compete with Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX). DWAC also has an unconventional leadership team, including CEO Patrick Orlando, who operates another SPAC called Yunhong International (ZGYH)… which operates out of Wuhan, China of all places. Remember, the #wallstreetbets community reflexively supports what Wall Street hates. 2) DWAC is a SPAC, which #memestock fans love because they can run so fast. 3) President Trump brought a real story and maximum emotion to the equation. Regardless of how you feel about President Trump, we can all agree on two things: he is a magnet for attention, and he still has a lot of fans that automatically like what his critics attack. This created an absolutely EXPLOSIVE meme stock situation. So let’s look at what happened.DWAC Had Perhaps the Most Shocking Stock Explosion in HistoryWe can’t reliable claim this the single biggest explosion in a stock ever, but it’s got to be pretty darn close. Let’s look at DWAC’s daily trading volume last week.DayVolume Closing Price High Low Monday 10/18 1,100 $9.97 $9.95 $9.95 Tuesday 10/19 49,900 $10.01 $10.01 $9.95 Wednesday 10/20 697,900 $9.96 $10.04 $9.95 Thursday 10/21 498,782,500 $45.50 $52.0 $12.62Friday 10/22 131,612,900 $94.20 $175.00 $67.96DWAC’s volume Monday was 1,100 shares. And on Thursday, it was 498,782,500. That means the volume increased by 453,437% in 4 days! But you want to know what’s really interesting? Check this out…There May Have Been Some Funny Business Going on…The DWAC-Trump announcement hit Wednesday after the close. Reuters covered it in a story at 10:08 p.m. that night. Yet… volume on DWAC had mysteriously picked up in the days ahead of the release. DWAC’s volume went from 1,100 Monday to 49,900 Tuesday to 697,900 Wednesday before the news came out. How does an unknown SPAC see a nearly 700-fold increase in volume from Monday to Wednesday? Did somebody know something? Yet…There Was PLENTY of Time to Get in DWACBut even with potential funny business going on, there was plenty of time to get In DWAC. The story was buzzing on social media during the premarket Thursday. Here’s a 15 minute chart showing the early action:As you can see, volume started coming in around the $10 to $12 range between 7 am and the open. By that time, the DWAC story was all over Reddit, Twitter, StockTwits, Facebook, and Discord. It was also a heavy topic of discussion in T3’s own Virtual Trading Floor® rooms, where our room moderators called out ideas in DWAC and ancillary plays like Phunware (PHUN). (we’ll get to PHUN later in this story…) So you didn’t have to be Johnny on the spot. Heck, even if you waited until after the open, you could have easily gotten in under $15… and rode it to a close of $65.50.DWAC Was Halted Multiple Times, Causing Traders TREMENDOUS StressAccording to the SEC, “a U.S. stock exchange that lists a stock is required to issue a trading “pause” in a stock if the stock price moves up or down by 10% or more in a five-minute period. And since DWAC was moving so fast, it was halted multiple times on Thursday and Friday. This was tremendously stressful for traders, who were forced to wait 15 minutes or more to see what happened next. The stock would open and you could be up or down 20% in the blink of an eye… only to see it be halted again. Bid-ask spreads were also very wide, and with the stock jumping around so quickly, it was difficult to place limit orders with any semblance of precision. Many traders just entered market orders and hoped for the best. Some Traders Won Big… Others Got Left Holding the Bag…As you can see in this 15 minute chart, the DWAC boom started in the $10-$12 range Thursday morning. It went up all day Thursday…. then continued skyrocketing overnight. Now, here’s what’s REALLY crazy. On Friday morning, DWAC opened at $118.80 and hit $131.90 almost instantly. Then it was halted for 30 minutes… and reopened at $175 on the dot, which was the high of the day. Presumably, traders expected a GameStop like move and were taking a “whatever it takes” attitude towards getting in…. or out. One trader we spoke with said “I sold about 80% of my DWAC at $157 and then started panicking because they kept halting it and I wanted out. I eventually just put in a market order and sold the rest
Continue Reading -->T3 Sentiment Survey: 69% of Traders Are Bullish
Welcome to the results of the first ever T3 Trader Sentiment Survey!Most sentiment surveys focus on a single asset like the S&P 500 or a broad generality like “the stock market.” But our survey measures your opinions on 6 different instruments:The S&P 500BitcoinApple (AAPL)Tesla (TSLA)GoldOilWe are also using a 30-day time horizon to get a sense of traders’ near-term expectations for the market. You’ll also notice that we don’t offer a “neutral” option. Instead, we have a “not sure” option. This is to reduce the number of people answering questions about assets they don’t follow. And it helps us focus on people with strong opinions.And to help you make better sense of traders’ feelings, we include a Bull-Bear ratio for each instrument. For example, on the S&P 500, we have 4.1 bulls for every bear. While on Gold, there are just 1.2 bulls for every bear. Want to participate in next weekend’s survey? Cick here to sign up so you can participate.Starting next week, we’ll begin sharing historical data so you can better use our survey information in your own analysis.Now, let’s jump into this week’s data:The Big Picture This chart gives you a big picture view of how traders view the 6 assets in our survey: Now that you’ve seen the 30,000 foot view, let’s drill down to individual assets.Trader Are Bullish on Stocks SPX Bull-Bear Ratio: 4.1 to 1 There’s been a lot of concerns about inflation, energy prices, the debt ceiling, and supply chain disruptions heading into earnings season. But based on our survey results, traders don’t seem worried. A whopping 69% are bullish, while a mere 18% are bearish. That’s more than 4 bulls for every bear! Bitcoin Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.3 to 1 Traders are positive on Bitcoin, but less so than they are on stocks. 58% see Bitcoin going up in the next 30 days. Apple Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.8 to 1 Apple is a favorite of individual investors… or so we thought. While 69% of traders are bullish on the market overall, just 59% are bullish on Apple. We’ll see if Apple’ October 18 ‘Unleashed’ opinion changes any minds. Tesla Bull-Bear Ratio: 2.2 to 1 Tesla (TSLA) is another cult favorite. And while Tesla stock has been on a tear… you wouldn’t know it by looking at the data. Like Apple, Tesla is less loved than the S&P 500. Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.2 to 1 Gold is the least-liked asset in our survey, Just 38% of traders are bullish on gold. That’s no surprise given that Gold is down -7% year-to-date vs. a +19% gain for the S&P 500.Gold Bull-Bear Ratio: 1.9 to 1 Traders are fairly positive on oil, with 54% of respondents saying oil will go up in the next 30 days. No shocker – oil’s been tearing it up because of the global energy crunch. And fun fact: energy is the top performing stock market sector in 2021. XLE is up 51% while OIH Is up 45%. For reference, the F.A.N.G. stocks (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are up 25% on average, and the SPY is up 19%.Make Sure You Join!Want to make your voice heard in our weekly surveys? Click here to join our panel. As time goes on, we’ll introduce a historical database so you can do your own analysis! Thanks for reading!
Continue Reading -->Blood in the Streets? DO THIS
The gravy train rolled off the tracks. The SPX is down -2% and the VIX spiked 26%. The action below the surface is even uglier with tons of small caps cratering 10% or even more. And if you’re in meme stock land… heaven help you… So what do you do now? Holster Up Your Guns Yes, you are losing money. But you have two choices. You can throw in the towel now. Or you can holster up your guns and get ready for battle. Because this is when you find treasures in the market. Get a Shopping List! Guess who made huge money since 2020? The people who held their noses and bought the right stocks when everyone was running for the exits. Imagine if you’d bought, say, Starbucks when it was in trouble? Or any of the thousands of stocks that skyrocketed after near-term issues. Don’t know what to do next? Then… Get Help We have LIVE trading rooms and newsletters built for traders just like you. So you get real help from real traders risking real money in the market. They can help you through this moment because they’ve been through it a million times already. Want to know what’s right for you? Email us and write “I WANT THE REAL THING.”
Continue Reading -->S&P 500 Facts: 10 Things You Don’t Know
The S&P 500 is one of the most recognizable stock market indices. While the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average is better known to the public, the S&P is often viewed as the best indicator for large-cap U.S stocks. But… we bet you didn’t know these 10 things about the S&P 500… starting with…The S&P 500 Has 505 Stocks! *all the facts here are true as of July 9, 2021 S&P itself says “the index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.” However, though there are 500 companies in the S&P 500, there are actually 505 stocks in the index!This is because the following 5 companies have dual share classes, giving the S&P 500 5 additional tickers:1Alphabet (which you know as Google): GOOG & GOOGL2Discovery: DISCA & DISCK3Fox Corporation: FOX & FOXA4News Corp: NWS & NWSA5Under Armour: UA & UAA WHAT? There are 505 stocks in the S&P 500 Index $SPX $SPY –> Click to Tweet The S&P 500 Has Made People a LOT of Money… Even With the Ups and DownsHere’s a long-term chart going back to 1980:The S&P 500 has made people a lot of money over the long run. The index has averaged a return of around +10% per year throughout its history, meaning it doubles about every 7 years on average. However, there have been plenty of ups and downs along the way. We’re sure you remember 2008, when the index fell fell over 37% due to the financial crisis. When Congress rejected the bank bailout on September 29 of that year, the S&P 500 dropped -8.8% in a single day of trading. This was the biggest drop since the 1987 Black Monday crash, when the S&P collapsed -20.5%. There’s also been good times, like 2013, when it rose 32.4%. And even with the COVID-19 pandemic, the S&P 500 rose 15.8% in 2020.You Can’t Trade the S&P 500Since the S&P 500 is an index, you can’t directly invest in it or trade it. So how can people make money from it? Simple — they own or trade mutual funds and ETFs indexed to the S&P 500. This means those mutual funds and ETFs model the S&P 500, buying and selling the same stocks in the same weightings to produce a return that’s roughly equivalent to the index itself. S&P says $11.2 trillion in assets (like mutual funds and ETFs) are benchmarked to the index. The best known of these assets are:The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF, which trades under the ticker SPYThe Vanguard 500 Index Mutual Fund, which trades under the ticker VFINXHowever, you can trade futures and options based on the S&P 500.S&P Is Actually a Company, and the Index Has a Long HistoryLet’s talk some S&P 500 history and basics. S&P stands for Standard and Poor’s, which is now part of S&P Global Inc, which is now publicly traded under the ticker SPGI. The S&P 500 was founded on March 4, 1957. However, the S&P does have a predecessor index called the Composite Index, which contained 90 stocks. Many historical data sources will mix the two together.The S&P 500’s Ticker Is NOT Always SPXWhile traders often use SPX as a shorthand for the S&P 500 Index, the index’ ticker is NOT always SPX in trading platforms and charting systems. The official ticker is ^GSPC — which is odd because people don’t use it in the real world. On platforms like Twitter and Stocktwits, traders will use $SPX when discussing the index. Charting platforms like Trendspider also typically use $SPX:To add to the confusion: there is actually an infrastucture company called SPX Corporation which used to trade under the ticker SPX. Thankfully, SPX Corporation has since changed its ticker to SPXC.The S&P 500 Does Not Let Every Big Company In, and There’s a Revolving DoorThe S&P 500 is not open to every large publicly-traded corporation. Tesla (TSLA) was only added in December 2020 when it had a $600 billion market cap! Here are the official requirements:Must have a $13.1 Billion Market CapMajority of shares are in the public’s handsMust be highly liquidTraded on a major U.S stock exchangePublicly traded for at least one yearHere are some major companies which are NOT included in the S&P 500:Berkshire Hathaway Class A (BRK.A): $638 Billion Market CapZoom Video Communications (ZM): $113.2 Billion Market CapSquare Inc (SQ): $106.2 BillionSnap Inc (SNAP): $102.9 BillionModerna Inc (MRNA): $93.7 BillionAnd as you might imagine, when a new stock is added, an older one is removed. Companies are removed for all sorts of reasons, including mergers, banktrupcies, or simply falling down the totem pole in terms of size and prestige.The S&P 500 Is a Market Cap Weighted IndexNot every stock in the S&P 500 impacts the index equally. Apple (AAPL) is the top weighted stock and makes up 6.1% of the index. That means 6.1% of the S&P 500’s movements are dictated by Apple. Just below, you’ll see that the top 10 companies in the S&P account for 28% of the index. So it’s quite top heavy. And at the bottom, there is News Corporation Class B (NWS) at just 0.008% of the index.April Is the Best Month for the S&P 500April is the best month of the year for the S&P 500, based on data going back to 1980. The S&P 500 rises 2.0% in April on average, higher than any month. You can see all the data here: S&P 500 Returns By Month Since 1980 Month of the YearAverage SPX Return % Positive MonthsJanuary 1.0% 60% February 0.2% 62% March 0.8% 62% April 2.0% 74% May 0.9% 69% June 0.3% 62% July 1.0% 52% August 0.2% 60% September -0.7% 48% October 1.2% 64% November 1.8% 71% December 1.3% 73% Data Source: Investing.com The S&P 500 has been up in 31 of the 42 last Aprils, or 74%. That is the highest percentage of all months. September is the worst month for the S&P 500, averaging a -0.7% decline since 1980. In fact, September is the only month that is down on average for the S&P 500.The S&P 500’s Top Names Are Ones You KnowSince the S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index, the names in the
Continue Reading -->Don’t Get Hurt with Opinions – Scott Redler Joins Alpha Trading
When the market started to look shaky last year, Scott founded the 6:30 Club, a way to connect with traders outside of his usual service. Now some are wondering about the current state of the market, but Scott remains unconcerned. Instead, he’s telling other traders to not get hurt with opinions. Just focus on the technicals. Find out what else Scott is looking at now in this episode of the Alpha Trader podcast. In this episode, Scott explains: Which news he pays attention to as a technical trader Where he sees a battle being waged on Bitcoin How he uses the 8 and 21-day moving averages to know when to buy Why he doesn’t think we’re at an extreme yet The small- and mid-cap names he’s bought recently
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s New Website!
We’d like to invite you to visit Scott Redler’s new website at ScottRedler.com. You can learn about Scott’s history, check out his services, see his long list of media appearances, and more! Just remember – T3Live.com is still the only place to purchase Scott’s products!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Instagram Account Is Here
Looking for Scott Redler’s REAL Instagram account? Well, you can find him on Instagram at @scottredlert3. View this post on Instagram A post shared by Scott Redler (@scottredlert3) So join him for motivation, memes, charts, and of course… the #630club! And after you follow him, leave a comment on a post! We need your help to blow this account up! By the way, Scott will NEVER direct message you on Instagram to sell you anything. His services are only available to purchase through our website or over the phone. So if you ever get a Direct Message from Scott asking you to purchase something, double check the handle — odds are you’re looking at a scammer. On Instagram, @scottredlert3 is the real deal. Reject the imposters! P.S. Want to help us fight off the Scott Redler Instagram clones? When you see an account under a different name, please report it as fake or spam.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Twitter Saga Is Over!
Good news! Scott Redler’s @reddogt3 Twitter account has been restored! Scott and his team have been overwhelmed by all the support and positive messages you sent us along the way. The way you supported us is the very definition of community. Now, we have just one favor to ask you. Please click the Tweet button below to send a thank you to Twitter’s support team! @twittersupport Thank you for bringing back @reddogt3! #630club #dogpound Click to Tweet We are a HUGE fans of Twitter, and Scott is eager to keep on Tweeting! P.S. You can click here to see today’s Redler Report special offer.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Twitter Account – What Happened
You may be aware that T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler has not Tweeted from his public @reddogt3 account since May 5. Trust us: Scott loves Twitter and had no plans to leave the platform. Twitter Support froze the account due to purported unusual activity, which was not defined. We are 100% supportive of Twitter’s efforts to clamp down on security issues. We’ve been impressed with their quick action in taking down dozens of Scott Redler impersonator accounts. However, we are frustrated that @reddogt3 has not been restored yet since: Scott submitted government identification to become a verified user, and is ready to submit the same identification again Scott has been a champion of the Twitter trading community since he joined in January 2012 Scott has always complied with Twitter’s rules Scott insists on being a positive voice in the Twittersphere We are doing everything we can to bring back @reddogt3. In the meantime, if you’d like to help, Tweet “Bring @reddogt3 back” to @twittersupport. But please, do not express any negativity towards Twitter. We are sure this is an administrative issue that can be straightened out. Scott will be back on Twitter! Thank you for your patience. In the meantime, you can check out Scott’s FREE moving averages ebook.
Continue Reading -->Meet the NEW Redler-All-Access
We have BIG news about the future of Scott Redler’s subscription services through T3 Live. Please pay careful attention to the details in this post, because there are a lot of moving parts here. First things first: these services are NOT changing. We are simply introducing new names. Redler All-Access has been the name of Scott Redler’s subscription newsletter service. But starting February 8, Redler All-Access will be a combination of two services:The Redler Report (the subscription newsletter service), andAlpha Team Virtual Trading Floor© (formerly known as The Trader Hub)Why the Change?Demand for Scott Redler’s services skyrocketed in 2020 and early 2021. With so many traders joining his newsletter and Virtual Trading Floor© room, we wanted to simplify their billing. Plus, we wanted a single offering that truly gives you “all access” to Scott. So we flipped the switch to make your life easier, and give you one place to get both of Scott’s subscription services. Now let’s talk about each service, starting with the Redler Report.The Redler Report is Scott’s flagship newsletter service including:The Morning Note Newsletter: updates on 25+ stocks, ETFs, and indices. This gets you ready for the coming day with a complete game planMorning Call Video: in-depth technical analysis and updates on how he’s attacking the market.Daily Recap Video: Scott wraps up the day so you know what to watch for tomorrow. @RedlerPremium Twitter Feed: for additional real-time updates and Scott’s personal chartsThe exact trigger levels Scott is watching for potential action in stocks like Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and dozens of other namesScott’s trading room will now be known as Alpha Team VTF®. It includes:Daily Trading Room Access: interact with Scott Redler and Daniel Darrow in the Alpha Team room on the VTF® from 8:45 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ETLive Stock and Options Analysis: real-time analysis from our pro traders while the action breaksTime Stamped Positions Listings: know how and when our team is taking actionSupport: join a friendly, supportive community of likeminded tradersTrade on the Go: Full compatibility with Apple iOS and Google Android mobile devicesAdd It Up! So one more time: The Redler Report (Newsletter) + Alpha Team VTF® (Trading Room) = The NEW Redler All-Access Interested in a New Scott Redler bundle?Email our team here: info@t3live.com IMPORTANT: Put “Redler Bundle Please” in the subject line!
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