Easy Trading Pattern You Can Use Today | Black Room Lessons

Two new training videos from The T3 Live Black Room Featuring Sami Abusaad & Ifan WeiJoin Sami and Ifan in the Black Room​​​​​​ Just $7 for Your First 30 Days Watch today’s lessons then join the Black Room for 30 daysSami Abusaad Black Room

Where Is the Stock Market Going in 2018? Readers Sound Off!

Where is the stock market going in 2018? Will Bitcoin beat the S&P 500? Is it time to dump tech stocks and get into banks? These are the types of questions we’re asking ourselves as we close out 2017. And since we got so many great responses to our recent Bitcoin survey, we reached out to T3 Live readers to get their thoughts on these questions. So let’s go through the results of our survey asking readers for their 2018 outlooks. Please keep in mind that this is not a scientific survey, so please take all the findings with a grain of salt. Will the S&P 500 finish up or down in 2018? 72.6% of respondents said the S&P will finish up in 2018. No shocker there, considering that the market’s been ripping up in a straight line all year. Which sector will do BEST? 38.4% of respondents said tech will be the #1 sector in 2018. Again, that’s no shocker. Besides Bitcoin and other crypto currencies, technology stocks have been the #1 place to be since President Trump’s 2016 election. Which sector will do WORST? Traders must believe all the “Amazon is taking over the world” headlines, because respondents are very bearish on retail. 27.8% of respondents believe will retail will perform worst, followed by utilities at 25%. Which asset class will perform best in 2018? Respondents are most bullish on stocks, with 38.9% saying stocks will be the best-performing asset class for 2018. Will the VIX rise over 40 at any point during the year? Now here’s where the survey gets interesting. Respondents are bullish on what’s been working: stocks in general, tech stocks in particular, and Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. But 50% expect a spike in the VIX to over 40. Not that traders were necessarily cognizant of the specific numbers, but the VIX hasn’t been over 40 since the October 24, 2015 flash crash — over 2 years ago. Will the S&P 500 have a -10% down day in 2018? The S&P 500 has had only 1 10% down day in history — October 19, 1987 a.k.a Black Monday. Yet 55.7% of respondents said the S&P 500 will have a 10% down day in 2018:   Will the S&P 500 enter a bear market in 2018? (defined as dropping 20% off the highs) But in keeping with traders’ generally bullish tone, just 29.6% expect a bear market in 2018, defined as a 20% drop off the highs: What is the single biggest risk facing the stock market in 2018? For this question, we’re simply going to post some of the more interesting responses, completely unedited aside from spelling corrrections: Trump impeding Mueller’s investigation More aggressive Federal Reserve Anything happening to President Trump! Domestic geopolitical shocks as well as foreign policy Revolution against globalization Rates Turkish led civil unrest and war in the middle east. Inverted Yield Curve Selling to fund crypts. Apart from banking all other sectors should be positive overall ‘Trump agenda gets stalled by congress A geopolitical blacks wan (middle east as an example) North Korea The mid-term election Multiple rate hike, but highly unlikely Donald Trump Traders seem most concerned with domestic politics and international unrest. In particular, there is a good deal of worry about some kind of Trump-related surprise. What is your single biggest challenge as a trader or investor? (be as detailed as you’d like!) Traders seem most worried about the Fed, getting picked off by HFT’s/algos, and trading through what feels like an extended market. Here are some responses, again, completely unedited except for spelling corrections: Timing moves so you aren’t buying too early, not getting shredded by HFTs front-running or running stops. Lack of volatility due to incessant money printing and the FED day trading the markets to hold indexes up Keeping up with the market. If not 100% in the market, chasing it was tough. Risk Mgmt. was out the window in 20177. Hope, it comes back in 2018. Keeping emotions out of the process Sizing up my trades and letting them run a little longer Keeping up with technological advances and tax Staying in stocks/funds in an overvalued market Staying with the trend (not reading copious amounts of newsletters crying out that the stock market is overbought because of indicator readings….) Staying Long when the market is at nose bleed territory Too many ETF’s hurts individual stock picking So what are you worried about? Post a comment below and let us know!

Trader Survey: Give Us YOUR 2018 Predictions!

Got a minute? Take this brief survey and tell us where YOU think the market’s going in 2018! Don’t forget to hit the submit button at the bottom! Loading…

Sentiment Report: Traders Are Extra Bullish for the Holidays

Traders are squarely focused on the progress of the GOP tax bill. And judging by the market action on Friday, it certainly looks like they’re feeling that it’s going to pass soon: The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all hit fresh all-time highs The Russell 2000 is outperforming by a big margin The US dollar is rallying Bank stocks are rocking hard Gold slipped into the red. But with two weeks to go in 2017, just how bullish are traders on equities after a year of nonstop opportunities to buy the dip? Let’s take a look at our 4 primary sentiment indicators to see if traders are going gaga for stocks. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.51, which is very low based on historical norms. This gives us a 3-month spread at 4.18 indicating that traders are very bullish, and expect almost no volatility heading into year-end. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 68. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 68 is basically moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of individual investors are bullish. This is the fourth highest reading of 2017, and a huge jump from last week’s 36.9% reading. It’s also well above the year-to-date average of 34.5% and the 38.5% long-term average. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 45.0% is basically fairly positive. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.560. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.592, which is very low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.560 — again very low. These numbers point to serious bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect more all-time highs into the new year. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 neutral (up from 3 last week) 0 neutral  (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. We’re seeing similar conditions right now. Stock market sentiment is about as bullish as it gets. So I’ll repeat what I just said: the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. The market’s higher than it was on October 6, when many permabears were calling tops because sentiment was out of control. Could the market fall from here? Or course! But timing trades off sentiment is near-impossible. We very well could see a melt-up into year-end, so look both ways before crossing this bull!

Finding the Easy Money Trades | Black Room Lessons

Two new training videos from The T3 Live Black Room Featuring Sami Abusaad & Ifan WeiJoin Sami and Ifan in the Black Room​​​​​​ Just $7 for Your First 30 Days Watch today’s lessons then join the Black Room for 30 daysSami Abusaad Black Room

Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now

Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:What exactly changed with the Fed todayHow to avoid giving back large trading gainsHow you can use the 8 & 21 day moving averages to judge the market trendAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed: ​1) Fed Raises Rates While Keeping Three-Hike Outlook for 2018 (Bloomberg)Federal Reserve officials followed through on an expected interest-rate increase and raised their forecast for economic growth in 2018, even as they stuck with a projection for three hikes in the coming year. Read the Article -> ​2) How to NEVER Give Back Large Gains (T3 Live)In this video, you’ll learn how to avoid a tragic mistake — giving back big gains. Sami Abusaad will give you all the details: Read the Article -> 3) Uncle Sam’s Surprise: Tax Reform to Impact Crypto Investors (CoinDesk)The U.S. tax code is on the brink of its largest overhaul in three decades.Several rule changes could potentially catch bitcoin holders who realized eye-popping gains in 2017 by surprise. Read the Article -> 4) Republicans have a final deal on their tax bill — here’s what’s in it (Business Insider)Republican leaders on Wednesday reached an agreement on their final tax bill, paving the way for an overhaul of the federal tax code by Christmas.Republicans are moving with full speed to pass the tax bill, a process that gained urgency after the Democrat Doug Jones’ unexpected victory Tuesday in Alabama’s special election for a US Senate seat. Read the Article -> ​5) Finding Fast Movers with the Quant Edge Strategy (T3 Live)Learn how Rob Smith’s unique Quant Edge Trading Strategy can help you find fast-moving stocks that can deliver fast profits. Read the Article -> ​6) What analysts are looking for in Thursday’s Bank of England meeting (MarketWatch)There is a reason why those calling for a crash, or even a market correction in the past decade, have been carted out feet first: central banks, and noweher was this more obvious than the shocking aftermath of Brexit. The UK’s Brexit vote (Jun-16) marked the point when the buy-the-dip trade became a self-fulfilling put, according to a new analysis by Bank of America. Read the Article -> ​7) Secrets of Trend Analysis: The Power of the 8 & 21 Day Moving Averages (T3 Live)In this lesson, you’re going to see the power of judging stocks and the market using the 8 & 21 day moving averages. Read the Article -> 8) Pepsi one-ups Budweiser brewer by ordering 100 Tesla electric semi trucks (TechCrunch)PepsiCo is the latest company to reveal that it’s placed orders for Tesla’s forthcoming electric semi-truck – and also the company with the largest order so far. The beverage company has ordered 100 of the trucks per Reuters, meaning it’s placed at least a $20,000 deposit for each of those since Tesla rose the down payment amount for its original $5,000 starting point. Read the Article -> 9) ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’ will be a force but likely not enough to lift box office sales over last year (L.A. Times)The North American box office is projected to be down at least 2% from the record set in 2016, despite the surely astronomical performance of the Walt Disney Co.’s “Star Wars: The Last Jedi.” Read the Article -> 10) Interview with Jack Schwager, Author of Market Wizards  (Chat With Traders)Get to know Jack Schwager, author of the incredible popular Market Wizards series of trading books.

How to NEVER Give Back Large Gains | Black Room Lessons

Why Is Bitcoin Moving? T3 Live Readers Sound Off!

Yesterday, we held a Bitcoin survey to get our readers’ thoughts on the raging cryptocurrency. Bitcoin mania truly is running wild. As of the time of this writing, the app for digital currency market place Coinbase is at #2 in the Apple App Store: (screenshot taken at 7:20 a.m. ET Friday) Yes, Coinbase is pulling more downloads than Instagram, Snapchat, and Facebook. So what’s moving Bitcoin? Let’s take a look at our survey results question by question. Before we get started, please understand this: This survey is very informal, and should not be considered scientific. Take the answers with a grain of salt, and certainly don’t use them to make buy/sell decisions in Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Question #1: Have you ever traded Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency? 35.7% of survey respondents said they have traded Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. Just 26.2% responded “no, but i want to get started.” So it seems that many traders are still fairly skeptical. Question #2: Is it too late to get into Bitcoin? 42.1% said ‘I don’t know.’ Meanwhile, just 26.3% of respondents said yes, that it is too late to get into Bitcoin. Question #3: What asset do you think will perform best in the next 5 years? Just 22% of respondents believe “Bitcoin and/or other cryptocurrencies” will perform best in the next 5 years. Interstingtly that’s exactly the same number that believe ‘Gold or other precious metals’ will perform best. 51.2% respondents believe equities will perform best. Question #4 What do you think of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies overall? This was an open-ended question that allowed readers to type in their own responses. These are some of the comments we received. All are completely unedited: Backed only by virtual numbers 0 and 1 in the computersystems it’s even more worthless than all the out of thin air printed money from the centralbanks of the world I am very skeptical of the whole crypto currency marketplace. It’s unclear to me if it is just a fad or a legitimate trading opportunity. Who is regulating this? It’s clear people are buying. Do we know if anybody is selling and cashing in on it? I have heard it is difficult to get your order executed quickly when buying. My gut feeling is that this will end in tears for many.” The Value of the underlying “Distributed Digital Ledgers” or “Blockchains” actually exceeds the value of Cryptocurrencies as mediums of exchange. Not useful yet, only a speculation vehicle at this point for people who dont trust traditional investments Good money laundering instrument, most of them are fraudulent, the danger of having the exchanges or your wallet hacked are enormous Clearly highly speculative. Very similar to internet Bubble of 2000… but ultimately the 2000 spawned off big winners and many losers. This will probably be the same. Also many losers like Mindspring were temporarily BIG winners for a short term. I still think people should get in for at least the short term. But monitor closely and also should only put in a small amount toward speculative assets. revolutionary, I prefer etherium and litecoin, because fortune 500 companies are building infrastructure around them. We also received a number of single-word answers like ‘scam’ and ‘bubble.’ One commenter said “Bitcoin to 120K,” and that may have been sarcastic. To my surprise, there were no blatant “I love Bitcoin”type responses. Question #5: What do you think is driving the price of Bitcoin? Our final question was also open-ended, and we’re presenting some of the comments we received, completely unedited: FOMO (2) Limited Supply and a lot of demand Speculation Social media (tulip-mania) Tulip power. Drug dealers, hackers mafia, terror groups Speculation and anticipation of trading on CME lack of brain combined with a lack of history knowledge idea of replacing fiat currencies Law of attraction. Think about all of the media hype and energy being put into this thing. Whether you are for it or against it… you are still thinking about it…. That is the #1 reason the price is going up and will continue to go up a lot in the very short term. Lots of Chinese buying 1/10 shares thinking when the last coin is mined, supply and demand will be their friend! Interestingly, a number of survey respondents used variants of the word Tulip in reference to Dutch Tulip mania in 1636 – 1637. When creating this survey, I assumed we’d attract more Bitcoin bulls, but we got the opposite.

Gold in Focus Ahead of Jobs Report

Last week, traders were squarely focused on the progress of the GOP tax bill. But this week, it feels like everyone’s watching Bitcoin so much that the world’s forgotten about the stock market! In fact, look at what’s #2 in the Apple App Store: It’s Coinbase — the app for the popular digital currency market place! Yes, a Bitcoin app is pulling more downloads than Instagram and Facebook! With the November jobs report on the way this morning, let’s dig in and see how how bullish traders are feeling about the forgotten stock market ahead of the weekend. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish On Friday morning ahead of the November nonfarm payrolls report, the VIX was at 9.97, the first sub-10 reading since November 29. This gives us a 3-month spread at 4.36, indicating that traders are very bullish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is 60, dowm from 73 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, so a reading of 60 is basically neutral. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.9% of individual investors are bullish. This is basically flat from last week’s 35.9+% reading, but it’s still way off the 45.1% level from 4 weeks ago, which itself was the highest since  since January 5, 2017. The long-term average is 38.5%, so a reading of 36.9% is basically neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.58. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.581, which is very low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.607. These numbers point to bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect a snap back to all-time highs in the SPX. ConclusionOut of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 2 neutral (down from 3 last week) 1 neutral  (up from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) Here’s what I said last week: The permabears are still saying that everone’s all-in bullish and 100% complacent… and they’re right. If the bulls rush to the exits, they may face some trouble — there’s an awful lot of them, and only so many can fit through the door at once… Sentiment was very bullish last week, but it’s clearly cooled down this week. Judging by the VIX and the CBOE equity put-call, options traders see almost no volatility ahead — and a lot of upside potential. But when we mix in our data from the CNN Fear & Greed Index and the AAII sentiment survey, we a more nuanced picture. Market momentum has slowed, and individual investors are definitely in neutral territory. So clearly, traders are back in the “moderately bullish” camp. That’s not exciting to say, but it’s the truth. The big question now is what impact the jobs report will have on equities. I’m mostly interested in gold. Gold’s taken a big spanking, at least partially because Bitcoin has suddenly attracted a mountain of investor dollars. If we get a weak jobs report, gold could skyrocket, so keep an eye on it

Take T3 Live’s Bitcoin Survey

We’re taking a brief survey to get our readers’ thoughts on Bitcoin. It is completely anonymous, so feel free to give us your complete thoughts.  P.S. Don’t forget to hit the submit button at the bottom! Loading…