Sentiment Report: The Lunatic Fringe
Sentiment was very bullish in December 2017. But the bullishness us turning into straight-up lunacy. Don’t believe me? Just check out the numbers! (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX has been making intraday lows around 9 for the past 3 days, indicating that traders expect almost no volatility. The 3 month spread is at 3.6, which indicates traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is is very flat. It’s almost shocking how little volatility is being priced in for the next few months. We’re coming off a year without a single 3% pullback, so I guess traders see more of the same. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 74, up from 62 last week., which is down just a bit from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 74 means traders are moderately bullish. Last week, I was surprised Fear & Greed wasn’t higher, but it’s rebounding quickly.I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get nutty. Last week, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 52.6% of individual investors were bullish. That was the highest level since November 13, 2014. This week, it hit 59.8%. We haven’t seen individual investors this bullish since December 23, 2010! Let’s keep in mind that the AAII sentiment number was depressed for most of 2017, averaging just 35.1%, which was under the 38.5% long-term average. For years, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is way, way below the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.556, also is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.503. We haven’t seen a 3-day moving average this low since December 9, 2016. Traders are buying tons and tons of call options. Of course, that’s worked out great because the market just won’t break down. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 bullish (up from 3 last week 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. Well, the trend has gone on a lot longer than seemed reasonable! I can’t remember seeing sentiment this universally bullish. It feels like it’s been a decade since we’ve had a pullback, and it feels like no one expects one. That doesn’t mean the market HAS to fall… but let’s stay on guard, okay?
Continue Reading -->How Charts Become Money | Black Room Lessons | Sami Abusaad
This is what a $5,000 looks likeHow chart reading turns into bankable money.
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:How to take control of your trading in 2018What Bitcoin needs to really grow in the futureA stock’s big gap up to all-time highs, and how to trade itAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Scott Redler’s Reality Check: How to Take Control Of Your Trading in 2018Every day is a new day. And every year is a new year. You can always start over. That’s the beauty of trading. But if you want to make a fresh start, you need a reality check. Read the Article -> 2) Why Bitcoin Needs Fiat (Coindesk)Imagine a parallel universe in which the U.S. economy could only grow at $50 every 10 minutes generating a mere $2.6 million of output per annum. Read the Article -> 3) Manufacturing in the U.S. Just Accelerated to Its Best Year Since 2004 (Bloomberg)U.S. manufacturing expanded in December at the fastest pace in three months, as gains in orders and production capped the strongest year for factories since 2004, the Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday. Read the Article -> 4) Oil hits 2-1/2-highs on Iran tensions, upbeat economic data (Reuters)Oil prices rose nearly 2 percent on Wednesday to the highest in 2-1/2 years, with buying spurred on by a sixth day of unrest in OPEC member Iran and strong economic data from the United States and Germany. Read the Article -> 5) Ifan Wei’s BAX Trade Review (T3 Live)In the latest video from the Black Room team, Ifan revews BAX after its gap to new all-time highs. Watch the Video -> 6) A record amount was spent on S&P 500 dividends over 2017, and 2018 could break that record (MarketWatch)Dividend yields in the U.S. stock market may be slight compared with other major markets, but that’s not for a lack of trying on the part of major companies. Read the Article -> 7) Why 2018 Is a Transition Year for Gold (T3 Live)Gold saw one of the sharpest rallies of the year in December. And yet few are paying attention. Read the Article -> 8) AMD shares surge on report of an Intel chip security flaw (CNBC)The British tech website Register reported Tuesday that some Intel processors have a “fundamental design flaw” that will spur a significant security update of Linux and Microsoft Windows operating systems to work around it. Read the Article -> 9) The 99 Best Things That Happened in 2017 (Quartz)If you’re feeling despair about the fate of humanity in the 21st century, you might want to reconsider. In 2017, it felt like the global media picked up all of the problems, and none of the solutions. To fix that, here are 99 of the best stories from this year that you probably missed. Read the Article -> 10) How to Apply Stoic Philosophy to Your Life (Tim Ferriss)Best-selling author explains the unique value of stoic philosophy, and how you can apply it to your life.
Continue Reading -->BAX Trade Review | Black Room Lessons | Ifan Wei
BAX gaps to new all-time highsWatch today’s lesson then join the Black Room for a 30 day trialJoin Sami and Ifan in the Black Room Just $7 for Your First 30 Days Watch today’s lessons then join the Black Room for 30 daysSami Abusaad Black Room
Continue Reading -->T3’s Top 10: Our Most Popular Articles of 2017
What’s popular with the thousands of traders that make up the T3 Live community? You’re about to find out with our top 10 articles for the year 2017, ranked by visits to our website. You can get a look at a top trader’s account statements showing $78K+ in profits from 4 weeks of trading, watch Scott Redler’s best-ever webinar, and get the backstories on 7 of our most popular traders. We’ll start with number 10 and work our way down to number 1: 10) 10 Reasons to Read Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report Get a sneak preview of Scott’s big report! 9) 17 Killer Tips Every Momentum Trader Should Know Learn why the most successful momentum traders are highly disciplined. They don’t gamble. 8) 6 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Day Trading You can spend years learning about moving averages, gaps, trendlines, and indicators. But if you’re day trading the wrong stocks, you’re setting yourself up for failure. 7) 7 Interviews with 7 Top Traders Get the backstories on 7 of our top trading professionals, and learn what makes them tick. 6) 9 Ways to Destroy Your Account with Options Want to fail at options trading? This article will tell you how! 5) $78,059.89 in 4 Weeks of Trading Earnings Sami Abusaad is no one hit wonder. Watch this video and you’ll see Sami’s actual account statements that show $78,059.89 in net profits since October 16. 4) Scott Redler: 10 Trading Rules I’ll Teach My Son Let Scott break down 10 trading rules every new trader needs to understand. 3) Jeff Cooper: Is Gold About to Explode? Find out why Jeff Cooper has been so bullish on gold. 2) Scott Redler Talks the Red Dog Reversal, H-Sell Setup, ROKU, and MORE! In this special live training webinar hosted by TradeStation, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down his 2 favorite trading strategies: the Red Dog Reversal, and the H-Sell Setup. 1) 9 Tips for Picking the Right Stocks for Swing Trading As a swing trader, one of the most important decisions you’ll every make is choosing which stocks to trade. You can learn all the winning setups in the world, but if you trade the wrong stocks, you’re going to lose money.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: When Extreme Bulls Get More Bullish
The bulls are back in town. Actually, they’ve been back for 3 weeks. Let’s move to our sentiment indicators so you can see what I mean: (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.96, which is pretty low based on historical norms. This gives us a 3-month spread at 3.00 indicating that traders are fairly bullish. But what’s really interesting is that the curve of the futures term structure is so flat. It’s almost shocking how little volatility is being priced in. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 62, which is down just a bit from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 62 is basically neutral. I’m very surprised at this — I thought it would be higher. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish Now this is where things get REALLY interesting. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 52.6% of individual investors are bullish, up from 50.5% last week. This is the highest reading since November 13, 2014. Let’s keep in mind that the AAII sentiment number has been depressed all year. We’ve been hitting record highs nonstop, but this year’s average is just 35.1%. That’s below the long-term average of 38.5%. All year long, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.5. This is well below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.566, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.550 — again, very low. These numbers point to extreme bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect that we’re going to start 2018 with a big bang. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 3 bullish (down from 4 last week 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. That time, the bulls were right to be so positive. Will they be right again? It’s hard to tell. We typically see extreme bullish sentiment at market tops. But we’ve had extreme bullish sentiment for 3 weeks now, and the bulls shows no sign of slowing down. They love this market. Now, if you’re not sure of where to put your money in 2018, I’d check out Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report. It includes 24 investment picks that could seriously outperform in 2018, including names in the crypto currency, tech stock, financials, and commodities spaces. Click here to read more.
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:Scott Redler’s Take on 25+ Stocks, ETF’s, and IndicesWhy Bitcoin Could Trade Between $6,500 and $22,00010 Reasons to Get Our 2018 Market Outlook ReportAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Bonus FREE Edition of Redler All Access (T3 Live)To celebrate another successful year for the Redler All-Access community, we’re posting today’s Morning Call Video and Morning Note. Read the Article -> 2) Bitcoin will trade between $6,500 and $22,000 in 2018, according to the first analyst to cover it (CNBC)Bitcoin is in for a potentially wild ride in 2018 that will end with a modest drop from the current price, the first Wall Street analyst to write about the crypotcurrency said Wednesday. Read the Article -> 3) The ‘Architect of Project Fear’ thinks Brexit will have a ‘limited’ impact on the economy (Business Insider)Lord Macpherson, the civil servant dubbed “The Architect of Project Fear,” believes Brexit’s negative impact on the British economy will be limited if it is handled correctly. Read the Article -> 4) 7 Things to Know Before Your First Options Trade (T3 Live)These simple tips will help avoid common pitfalls that can destroy your profitability, so we hope you enjoy it! Read the Article -> 5) Betting Against Boredom: A Field Guide to 2018 Volatility Trades (Bloomberg)It’s pretty simple: in three decades since the Cboe Volatility Index was invented, 2017 will go down as the least exciting year for stocks on record. Read the Article -> 6) 10 Reasons to Read Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report (T3 Live)You may owe it to yourself to get Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report Read the Article -> 7) Factbox – Wall Street in 2018: the biggest risks for stocks (Reuters)Wall Street’s rally could have another leg up next year thanks to a sweeping tax cut and economic momentum, but investors are counting the risks that could abruptly end the party. Read the Article -> 8) Kanye West bought Kim Netflix and Apple stock for Christmas (Engadget)It’s Christmas morning in the Kardashian-West household. Kim chooses a gift from the mountains of presents piled up in their living room, and unwraps it to find a Disney toy, Apple headphones, Adidas socks and gift cards for Netflix and Amazon. Read the Article -> 9) Elon Musk promises rain-sensing wipers, Tesla pickup truck (Ars Technica)On Tuesday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter to respond to queries from the company’s fans and followers. In his series of replies, Musk promised new software-based functionality and repeated a vague promise that he made back in April: that after a Model Y SUV, Tesla would introduce a pickup truck to compete with Ford’s F series. Read the Article -> 10) Is It Time for a New Year’s Resolution? Watch this video for a motivational shot in the arm before the calendar flips to 2018:
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Manic Panic for the Holidays
Let me get right to the point: traders are crazy bullish right now. I love to troll the bears for crying that everyone’s too bullish, but today they’re finally right. Let’s work through the numbers so you can see what I’m talking about — and I’ll give you an idea of how you can start 2018 on the right foot. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Late Friday morning, the VIX was as low as 9.35, which is extraordinarily low based on historical norms. On Wednesday, it hit 8.9, the lowest level since the 8.56 all-time low from November 24. This gives us a 3-month spread at 3.8 indicating that traders are very bullish, and expect almost no volatility heading into the final week of the year. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 68, exactly flat from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 68 is basically moderately bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 50.5% of individual investors are bullish, a big jump from last week’s 45.0% reading. This is the single highest reading of 2017. So basically, it took 11 months of nonstop grinding up to get individual investors overly excited about stocks! It’s also well above the 38.5% long-term average. All year long, the permabears have been saying that retail investors are “all in.” Well, the permabears are finally correct! 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio’s latest reading is 0.560. This is below the 0.655 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.563, which is extremely low on a historical basis. And the 3-day moving average, which I use to measure very short-term bullishness, is 0.550 — again, very low. These numbers point to extreme bullishness among options investors, who seem to expect that we’re going to end the new year with a big bang above SPX 2700. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 4 neutral (up from 3 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 0 bearish (flat from last we) On October 6, I made the following melodramatic declaration: Let’s not mince words: the bulls are clearly insane. They think they’re destined to ride into the sunset on a magic carpet made of cold hard cash. I can see both sides of the coin here. The bulls may be insane… but they may also be right. Timing market turns based on sentiment indicators is awfully tricky. And remember, the trend can go on a lot longer than may seem reasonable. That time, the bulls were right to be so positive, because after that, all indices hit fresh all-time highs. But now I’m wondering if we’re about to see a repeat of December 2016. For the past two weeks, sentiment has been about as bullish as it gets, which incidentally, is exactly what happened last December. That resulted in a brief drawdown into the 2017 New Year, after which it was off to the races. Now, if you’re not sure of where to put your money in 2017, I’d check out Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook ReportIt includes 18-22 picks that could seriously outperform in 2018, including names in the crypto currency, tech stock, financials, and commodities spaces. Heck, Scott’s even dipping his toe in precious metals! Click here to read more.
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today?We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:Bitcoin’s post-futures collapse, and what it meansWhy you should read Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook ReportThe long-awaited passage of the GOP tax billAnd more!So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Bitcoin Tumbles From Record in Biggest Slump Since Futures (Bloomberg)Lost in the hubbub over the feeding frenzy in cryptocurrencies and related stocks is the original digital coin itself. Read the Article -> 2) 10 Reasons to Read Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report (T3 Live)You may owe it to yourself to get Scott Redler’s 2018 Market Outlook Report Read the Article -> 3) House approves sweeping tax bill in a win for Trump (Reuters)The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Wednesday to the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in 30 years, sending a sweeping $1.5 trillion bill to President Donald Trump for his signature. Read the Article -> 4) US existing home sales jump to 11-year high (CNBC)Republican leaders on Wednesday reached an agreement on their final tax bill, paving the way for an overhaul of the federal tax code by Christmas.Republicans are moving with full speed to pass the tax bill, a process that gained urgency after the Democrat Doug Jones’ unexpected victory Tuesday in Alabama’s special election for a US Senate seat. Read the Article -> 5) Options Case Study: Hitting It Big On Akamai (AKAM) (T3 Live)On November 21, 2017, Akamai Technologies (AKAM) caught our attention and Options In Play subscribers were alerted to buy the January $57.50 calls.Here’s how we spotted the opportunity: Read the Article -> 6) 5 Tips for Short-Term Options Trading (Schaeffer’s Investment Research)From implied volatility to technical analysis, here’s everything you need to know for quick options profits. Read the Article -> 7) Easy Trading Patterns You Can Use Today (T3 Live)Check out these two training videos from Black Room Moderators Sami Abusaad and Ifan Wei. Read the Article -> 8) How to Make a Mint: The Crytography of Anonymous Electronic Cash (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)M.I.T. broke down the basics of electronic cash… back in 199^ Read the Article -> 9) Tesla Model X is put to the test off-road and in tug of war with Hummer and Land Cruiser (Electrek)How powerful is the Tesla Model X? See how it performs in a tug of war against a Toyota Land Cruiser and a Hummer. Read the Article -> 10) Bitcoin (Ultra Spiritual Life)’Emotional Healing Coach’ J.P. tells you why Bitcoin is the veganism of the financial world.* *Just in case it’s not 100% clear, this video is a parody
Continue Reading -->11 Reasons to Read Scott Redler’s 2019 Market Outlook Report
11) It’s Bigger and Better Than EverThe 2018 Market Outlook was 78 pages long. And the 2019 Market Outlook weighs in with over 100 pages of trade ideas, analysis, and bonuses (read more below) that you can use. Remember, this report wasn’t written by a professor sitting in an office. You’re going to see actionable trade ideas and analysis, not 698 different charts of economic data. It’s written by a Scott Redler, a professional trader who makes a living risking capital on T3 Trading’s New York City trading floor. Scott doesn’t waste time on academic concepts. His focus is taking action to generate money.10) Learn an Unusual Way to Trade Apple (AAPL)Apple was a big winner in last year’s Market Outlook. But Scott’s introducing an unusual way to play it… which DOES NOT involve buying or selling it at the start of 2019. 9) Get A Big Update on Scott’s Amazon (AMZN) StrategyScott’s exact words on Amazon at the end of 2017: “In 2018, I believe Amazon can hit $2,000 and split 4:1.” Scott was wrong about the split, but Amazon did hit $2,000+ on August 30: Amazon is key to his 2019 strategy. Can you guess how? Hint: Scott is NOT predicting Amazon $3,000…8) Learn About a Social Media Stock That Can Rise 50%+, and Another That Can Get Taken OverScott has identified 1 social media stock that can actually hit new highs in 2019 with a 50%+ gain. And another that has the potential to be taken over. Yes, playing names for takeovers is very risky, but Scott is including a way to play it with defined risk. 7) There’s a Dog of the Dow That You’ll Be Shocked AtScott is targeting a particularly ugly ‘Dog of the Dow’-type name that could put in a 35% gain by January. This name is so hated that you’ll frankly be shocked it was uncluded. 6) We Are Moving the Delivery Date UpThis year’s Market Outlook Report will be delivered on or around December 24, 2018, instead of the end of the month. Why? Because last year, some of Scott’s best picks like IBB and Ethereum actually started rallying BEFORE year-end. We want to give you all the time you need to digest Scott’s research and figure out which names make sense for you. 5) You Want More Time With Your Family and FriendsDo you really want to spend the holidays reading market news and cranking through hundreds of charts, trying to desperately put together a trading plan for 2019? Scott is already doing the work… so why should you too? Get the report and instead focus on having FUN. You deserve it. 4) Even MORE AnalysisAside from the stock picks, Scott’s including his forecasts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Biotech, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin, and MORE! That means you’ll have a complete understanding of the market picture next year. And since these are all associated with ETF’s, you have even more ideas to work with in 2019.4) You Can Get it for FREE (sort of)We have two Redler All-Access bundle offers available that will save you a TREMENDOUS amount of money, making the report practically free. Option #2 was very popular last year… 2) BONUS Trading Education – 6 Features To keep you advancing as a trader, the 2019 Market Outlook includes 6 Bonus Education Sections, all updated for 2019 and beyond:Bonus #1: Scott Redler Interview Bonus #2: 20 Keys to Trading SuccessBonus #3: 5 Moving Average Rules You Need to KnowBonus #4: Red Dog Reversal Case Studies Bonus #5: The ‘h’ Sell SetupBonus #6: The Tier System for Trade Management So not only will you save time and make money (hopefully!), you’ll actually build skills you can use for years. 1) BONUS Reports Throughout the YearAs a second special bonus, you’ll get 3 update reports at the end of the first, second, and third quarters. That means 100% accountability and transparency, and Scott will outline any shifts in strategy that he’s making. Want to learn more about the 2019 Market Outlook Report? Learn More About the 2019 Market Outlook Report
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