You Are Not Alone in the Twilight Zone
What a week!
The Supreme Court smacked down President Trump's tariffs, Q4 GDP flopped, and Amazon (AMZN) surpassed Walmart (WMT) as the world's #1 company by sales.
Our song of the week is Golden Earring's “Twilight Zone.” Blast it while you read this report:
1. If You're Frustrated, You're Not Alone
Last week, we asked our community if the market felt easier or harder than usual in 2026.
67.7% said harder.
So if you're frustrated by this market, you're not lone. Because while the major averages are stubbornly range-bound, individual stock performance is all over the place.
The S&P 500 is up about 1% year-to-date, and off the highs by about 1%.
But drilling below the surface tells a much more interesting story:
- The average stock has moved 14.4% year-to-date
- 342 stocks are up, with an average gain of +15.4%
161 stocks are down, with an average loss of -12.4%
This implies traders and investors are having trouble with timing.
Because 69% of stocks are up and the winners are up more than the losers are down.
We can even see this from a sector perspective. If you look at our sector ETF tracker, you see that most ETFs are up:
There has been a lot of gains in the market this year.
It's just been touch to catch them because it feels like there's no follow-through.
And if you're stressed and in need of a fresh start in your trading, check out the Pristine Mentorship with Sami Abusaad and James Rich Young.
2. This Week Is HUGE for Tech
Yes, we all know that Nvidia (NVDA) earnings hit on Wednesday.
But we're also getting reports from Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), Intuit (INTU), Autodesk (ADSK), and Dell (DELL)?
That means we get insights on software (important given the IGV debacle), AI, and my favorite topics – memory and storage.
I own Nvidia stock, but I'm just as interested in Dell.
Because Dell spend lots of dough on hard drives and SSDs.
So what they say will impact the 3 amigos of storats: SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX).
They are the #1, #5, and #9 best stocks in the S&P 500 this year, posting absurd gains:
BTW, I own SanDisk and plan on holding it into the Dell report because I agree with JR Romero's take:
3. The Mood Has Soured
There's still little evidence that investors and traders are overly optimistic, which tracks with how challenging this environment has been.
The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 34.5% of investors are bullish.
This is below the 37.5% long-term average.
And it's well below the 49.5% reading notched on January 14.
Also: the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.64, which reads pretty much neutral.
This is all good news.
Because extremes in bullish sentiment can signal complacency and mark tops.
Just remember that timing the market with sentiment data is tricky, if not impossible.
4. OIH Might Hit a Sell the News
Energy has been a dominant force in 2026, thanks to geopolitical worries.
And this week, President Trump gave Iran a 10-day ultimate to make nuclear deal, or “bad things happen.”
The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is up 36% year-to-date after the “Gap of the Year” on January 5 after the US Army Delta Force plucked Nicolás Maduro out of Venezuela.
OIH has crushed every other sector ETF, including the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), which is up “only” 22.5%.
And it could be getting overbought.
So if Trump and Iran make nice, there could be a sell-the-news reaction.
I own OIH and XLE and have zero plans to sell. I'm in for life.
5. Software Still Stinks
Software looks like it was bottoming.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) showed about 8,000 signs it was oversold, with record volume after a huge decline.
And it bounced. For three days.
I thought I was smart by picking up the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG). Because that's the “safer” side of the software arena.
Nope.
I'm losing money thanks to Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Akamai (AKAM), the #1 and #2 components in BUG, both whiffing on earnings this week.
Why haven't I sold yet?
I wish I knew.
ATTN: Serious Options Traders
There Is Just ONE Epic Trade Every Week