All posts by Scott Redler
Scott Redler Talks Tech Stocks on Fox Business
On June 20, Scott Redler appeared on ‘The Klaman Countdown’ on Fox Business: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com Scott went over: Why he was bullish on Nvidia (NVDA) and Eli Lilly (LLY) to start 2024 — and whether they can lead again Why he said the semiconductor trade was overheated Thursday The “8 times an hour” rule The role of today’s triple-witching expiration What could happen to the leaders and laggards over the next week Why Scott likes Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Meta (META) from here Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-21 at 6.46.42 AM
Continue Reading -->SMCI: A Powerful Stock That Plays Mind Games
Super Micro (SMCI) is one of the trickiest names in the market. It’s been one of my best names as of late as I played it with options on the Alpha Team VTF®, offsetting tougher names like IBIT, which has struggled. And I do think SMCI has potential to head back to the $972 area, and eventually, back to the record highs over $1,200. But I exited my remaining SMCI options this morning at 11:13 am. Here’s why: SMCI takes a ton of emotional bandwidth to trade. It’s almost like a meme stock with all the wild intraday swings out of nowhere, and you can’t let it out of your sight. And I don’t want my trading performance to suffer because I’m overfocusing on SMCI all the time. Nvidia (NVDA), by comparison, is relatively tame — but still gives us wide price swings to potentially ride. Remember, you don’t have to be in everything to do well. Also, I’m keeping my eyes out on a potential rebalancing trade towards energy, which hasn’t participated in the recent rally. As you can see in my disclosures below, I’ve been long Warren Buffett favorite Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and XLE $88 calls for next Friday. I trimmed both of those positions today, but I’ll be looking for opportunities to add back. I’m not saying it’s time to go all in on energy — but it must be on the radar now. SMH is up 59% this year and XLE is up just 6%. So catch-up may be in order. Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-18 at 1.31.12 PM
Continue Reading -->Can This Weight-Loss Drug Stock Go to $1,000?
SPX futures are -5 as we see if 5402 holds or if they shake the tree this week. The trade is very narrow. There is some concern about rebalancing to end the second quarter, so stay on your toes. The recent SPX high is 5447. Last week, the SPY dip was buyable for a move to $544.12 post-CPI. Now, we see if this week is the same. Active support is in the $539-$540 area. Now let’s dig into some individual names: LLY, the weight loss drug leader, has given us tones of setups this year, which we’ve covered extensively. The last one was to clear the $800 area. It hit $885+. It needs to hold $852. If it does that, it can hit $1000+ can happen. TSLA keeps proving it’s worth ignoring as it hasn’t been special since last December. They sold the vote and Elon’s speech. There are tiny tactical things to do. Otherwise it’s an avoid. Friday’s low is $176.92 if you navigate this. MSFT was a focus as it reclaimed all the moving averages around $423. It hit an all-time high last week at $443+. It still looks good but we need to manage size. It needs to hold $433 now. FXI: China had a nice first half 2024 move. Then FXI went from $29.53 down to a low of $26ish on Friday. It could be time to accumulate again. I did buy some calls back. Your Tip for This Week: Take a Blue Collar Mentality Trading isn’t about turning on your screens and swinging for the fences each day. It’s about hitting singles and doubles. Success comes from showing up and doing the work every day, the same way carpenters, ironworkers, and plumbers put together a building. For traders, this includes forming an effective trading plan, observing the market, and aiming for consistent profits. I’ve seen a lot of traders search and search and search for some kind of secret sauce. Hard, steady work is the closest thing to it. This Week’s Calendar: Pretty Light Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-17 at 9.55.32 AM
Continue Reading -->Tesla $242 Is the Level to Watch
SPX futures are up 10 points after we kissed 4322 last Friday and pulled back a bit. I will see how we consolidate ahead of the CPI on Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. The active sequence from March was led by tech and started to broaden out a bit. Headlines this weekend talked about a “New Bull Market” but these definitions like “20% off the lows” have become more meaningless over the years. As long as we hold 4290ish, it’s hard to get too bearish. SPY hit a high of $431.99 on Friday and also touched $429.62. I will see how tight things get ahead of Wednesday. I did well buying SPY calls into weakness for the past few weeks. Tech continues to do a lot of the heavy lifting. The downtrend line was cleared in March and every time they try and rotate the flows, it repairs like we saw last Wednesday into Thursday. QQQ’s have active support at $353ish. As long as that holds, it’s hard to get too bearish here. I did well selling calls above the market last week. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AAPL provides ways to trade around a position. Investors and traders are being rewarded. The $180 area needs to hold to set up a potential move back to the $184.95 highs. TSLA: we were rewarded for getting very bullish on TSLA when it cleared $169.76 on May 17. There have been so many ways to make money since then with options and stock. It hit a high of $252.42 on Friday. It feels a little extended. I would trim if I was heavy in it. It seems like some digestion can happen. Holding the $242 gap pivot keeps it super special. Below and it can get choppier. META helped lead this tech rally with a high of $276ish and it’s now in rebuilding mode. $258ish is the recent low. See if early strength holds or fades today. $267.59 is Friday’s high. NVDA is trying to rebuild since the $419 high. Recently, it held $373ish and bounced. It seems like when it’s green, it goes red. And when it’s red, it goes green. So there is not much to do this morning. AMD gave us a super move from $91ish to $130+. It’s been in a corrective/digestive mode this past week. It held the $115.80 area again. I would keep taking trades, but I would trim some this morning. See how it holds up ahead of its AI chip unveiling event. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-06-12 at 9.12.01 AM
Continue Reading -->Why $183 Matters for Apple
SPY held the 8 day last week and Thursday. I bought some $421 calls for another breakout. SPY hit $428.74 and I took off half for ~75%. I’ll trim the rest because they expire today. If we pull back a bit, I may add higher strikes. $431.73 is the high from last August. QQQ: tech led the rally since March with many nice setups along the way. It might underperform in June. $352ish is upper support. We can’t get too bearish if that holds. The AAPL event at 1:00 will be interesting. If that doesn’t get sold, QQQ shorts will get punished. I sold premium higher to generate some cash flow. Now let’s look at individual names: AAPL: there are lots of upgrades and articles ahead of the 1:00 p.m. ET WWDC event with talk about AR and AI. They usually try and sell these events. $183 is a very interesting spot. See how it deals with that today. I bought stock and options as it held the post-earnings gap. I’ll trim stock and hold options in case it clears the all-time high. TSLA has kept rewarding traders since clearing $169.76 where I put my swing long on. It’s given us multiple setups with plenty of options trades. It hit $217.25 Friday. I switched to another call spread and I’m still long. I’ll trim some and hold some. NVDA had a huge move that gave us so many ways to buy and trade it. The stock hit $419.36 with a topping tail to give clues it might need to consolidate for a while. We can be tactical here. Some got short Friday as it went green to red with a low of $390.58. This morning, see if there’s a signal to go red to green, or if it sees $378 active support or the important earnings gap pivot. AMD triggered long after I listed it around $91.60. it’s been special since then and above the 8 day. Last Tuesday, I mentioned to trim or look for a cute short as it was super extended. It hit $130.79. On Friday it made a lower high at $121 and went red. This morning it will be testing the $115.80 gap pivot. I’ll see if there’s an active buy vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. NFLX is tricky at times, but it gave so many set ups that I went over here. Last week it held $385ish and hit a high of $407.52. Use the 8 day as your guide. MSFT is still rewarding swing longs. It’s been riding the 8 day with a high of $337.50. Keep managing the trade. Many are doing well with it. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-06-05 at 9.21.23 AM
Continue Reading -->5 AI Stocks to Watch This Week
SPX futures are +22, giving upside follow through to Friday’s move above the 4160-4180 area with a close above 4200. It seems like we can reach the 4325 high from last August. But take trades along the way. We’ve had many nice setups the past few weeks because we focused on setups instead of calling tops or predicting recessions. SPY: I bought $416 calls last Thursday for a potential Friday move. It cleared $416 to see $420.70. This morning, it’s at $422+. I’d trim and trail but it seems like it can work back to the $430 area. We’ll see if today’s move builds. QQQ has led the way higher since the March ignition above the downtrend line. Last week the gap up from NVDA held and on Friday it cleared $341 to see $349.25. This morning we are at new monthly highs. I always trim when a gap like this is in my favor. I might sell some calls for this Friday as a way to hedge. Now let’s dig into some AI-related names: AI became a huge winner again. I got into a swing long in the $22 area. Last week I also put on some $30 calls that are up 300%. Make sure to manage it. We’ll see if it can hold the March high of $34.68 to build. NVDA helped add fuel to the tech rally. I made 5Xish on my call spread for earnings. Some bought vs. the post-earnings gap at $366. This morning it looks above $394.80. Congrats to long-term investors and short-term traders here. I’d trim and trail. MSFT continues to reward swing longs from the post-earnings gap of $292. it gave multiple entries since then. It hit $333.40 Friday. I’d make sure to trim some this morning because it’s a bit extended. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy short. GOOGL became a big focus for us around $105ish and it hit $126.43 last week. It has another bull flag setup. See if it clears that. Some are long vs. $119.50. Others are waiting for it to clear that pivot. SMCI has been a rock star. Lots on the VTF® did very well here. I’d trim some because it’s extended but it’s not an easy short. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-05-30 at 8.25.49 AM
Continue Reading -->Micron Banned in China – So I’m Watching These Levels
SPY cleared $412.87 to see $420.72 Friday. We did well trading for that. Now we’ll see how it tries to digest above $417.35 or if it hits $415 which must hold. QQQ: tech will get tested today after China banned MU memory chips. See how this affects other semi names like AMD and NVDA. See how AAPL handles the early morning weakness. $335.43 is Friday’s low. The must-hold area is closer to $332. MU is in the news with China wanting to ban their memory chips. We’ll see how this plays out the next day or so. See if it holds the $64 area and puts in a low in the first 5-15-30 minutes. Or does it really get pressured? I’d watch it for sentiment. AAPL will be interesting today because of the MU ban in China. If things escalate, AAPL could be a target. We’ll see if it holds the $173 area or if they shake the tree lower. I still have some stock, but I sold my options Friday for a nice gain. AMD had a big move from the $91ish targeted buy area up to $108+. Now see if it can reclaim $104.62 to relieve pressure, or if we see the 8 day closer to the $101.50 area. NVDA has been the best barometer for risk in tech and it’s been full of nice setups to reward traders. For today, see if it can reclaim $309.16 or if it sees a move down towards the 8 day closer to $306. MSFT had a big-time pre and post-earnings move. I did sell mine as it hit $319+. It’s a little extended, but as long as the 8day holds, some active traders will stay long. Friday’s low is $316ish. TSLA was a focus last Wednesday. It was Musk’s first interview in a while. We did get long stock and options near $169.76. It’s acted well since to stay with it. It hit $181.95 Friday to manage. As long as we hold the $177ish area, maybe this starts a better active sequence. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-05-22 at 8.45.40 AM
Continue Reading -->7 Tech Names to Watch This Week
SPY keeps playing with levels. Last week it couldn’t build on strength and sellers couldn’t keep it below levels. We’ll see how this week starts. $413.64 is Friday’s high. See if it gets and stays above. $414.54 is above. The bears can’t growl so loud this week unless we get a hard close below $408.64. QQQ’s hit a high of $327.17 last week as some specific setups worked. The 8 day is key active support. We’ll see if this sector can keep getting flows. It needs to hold the $322ish area to stay special. Now let’s dig into 7 tech leaders: AAPL continues to digest post-earnings. On Friday if felt vulnerable but it held the earnings gap. If you are super active, make sure it holds $170.76-$171 support. If it doesn’t, it can get choppier and harder to sit with. $174.59 is key active resistance. MSFT remains Very Impressive. Whenever you think it gets vulnerable, it holds the 8 day. It needs to hold the $306 area. If that holds, perhaps it tries to get going again with $313 as pivot resistance. GOOGL was a big focus for us last week. I got big around $107ish and it hit $117.92 Friday. I did sell my stock and switched to some call as it seemed stretched. Loop Capital called it a hold today. Let.s see how it digests. Holding $114.41-$116 would keep momentum. AMZN was another focus for us. I got pretty big in the $105 area and then sold the rest into the $113+ area last week. Now, we’ll see if it can build a bull flag above $109ish to give us more opportunities. META is trying to set up again after hitting a high of $244 a few weeks back. Some are long vs. the $229 gap pivot. If it can get and stay above $238, maybe it gets some active momentum back again. Loop Capital raised it this morning. TSLA couldn’t hold the Friday gains even with Elon saying they will have a new Twitter CEO faster than some thought. I did sell most of mine into the $177 gap fill. Then it failed to hold $174 with a low of $166ish. It’s flattish this morning. It’s hard to tell what’s next. If it breaks and stays below $166ish, the bears will growl loud. I’m just going to watch it for now. NVDA is trying to hold the 8 day. This tech market leader can give clues to the week. It needs to hold the $280 area. Otherwise it can see downside. A move above $292ish tells us we can still have some special moves. Friday’s high is $287ish. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-05-15 at 8.26.28 AM
Continue Reading -->Key ETF Levels This Week
We have mixed markets around the world with a slight positive feel. Friday’s solid jobs report quieted the recession debate. AAPL’s solid report with the tech action also helped the indices reclaim the 8/21 day moving averages again. We have the CPI and PPI this week. There’s some concern that they will stay elevated but that probably doesn’t alter the Fed’s course. The debate is over cutting rates in the second half of 2023, not if they need to continue to raise. We’ll see if 4084-4114 holds to clear 4147-4164 later this week. SPY reclaimed the 8/21 day again on Friday. Now we’ll see if it can hold $411ish to clear $413.74 to see the high of the range again. We’ll probably need benign CPI and PPI numbers to have it clear that. Tech continues to act best. QQQ’s cleared $318 fast to see $323 again. Now we’ll see if it can hold the $320 area to keep upper momentum. Now let’s look at some of the big index ETFs I watch: XLE hasn’t been special all year as I’ve mentioned many times. It broke $83 to see a low of $77.87. See if it can hold the $79 pivot now. XLF bounced Friday after four down sessions. I’d trim into early strength. Watch JPM for clues. I’d stay away aside from quick range trades. KRE: regional banks are still a problem. 3 banks went to zero. PACW cut the dividend and it’s up 32%. I would not chase it. KRE has resistance at $40.67-$41.28. IWM is choppy and lags but worth a look at times. It’s only a headwind when making lows. I guess it has room to the $179 area. ARKK had a rare gap up that held on Friday. Perhaps it can continue towards the $38 resistance downtrend line. That spot will be important. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-05-08 at 8.10.19 AM
Continue Reading -->It’s a Big Week
Most regions around the world are closed for May Day. FRC shareholders are getting wiped out as JPM and the FDIC pick up the pieces. The FOMC is this Wednesday. Last week, the bears broke the SPX below 4089 but could only keep it below for a day. On Friday, it cleared 4138 to see 4170. Big moves in names like MSFT and META helped. SPY briefly broke the $410-$408 area last week and then the active bulls took it back on Thursday to see $415.94 Friday. It wasn’t the easiest of action but we had our levels. Now we’ll see if we digest ahead of the FOMC Wednesday. $418.31 is the February high. QQQ had a battle around the $314.97 pivot last week. The active bulls took it back on Thursday. On Friday it hit $322.65. Watch this sector as it’s been leading the way. If it holds the $318 area this week, the door is open for a move toward $334. Now let’s look at some individual names. AAPL keeps proving it has “Go To” status. It cleared $165 to get some momentum back to see $169.85. It reports on Thursday. Maybe it goes red to green today. We’ll see where it is Thursday for option strategies. For today, see if it holds the $167 area. TSLA reclaimed $153.15 and had a pretty strong session Thursday to have some switch gears. On Friday it cleared and held $160.87 to see $165. Perhaps this can get more attention. See if it can go red to green and how it deals with Friday’s high for a quick push. MSFT was great post-earnings. Some were long vs. $292ish. Other waited for it to clear $299.57 to see a high of $308+ to manage. It needs to hold $303. META had a big gap and go but was very choppy yesterday. We’ll see can if it hold $235.75 or if it filsl a portion of that gap to get choppier. If it holds, it can clear $241.69. GOOGL is tricky but keeps building. If it continues to hold $102-$103, perhaps there’s a better move if it can clear the $108.37-$109.20 area with volume. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-05-01 at 8.11.10 AM
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