All posts by Scott Redler
Can Tesla and Amazon Still Run Run Run?
Brought to You By Power Plays SPX futures are +3 after a big three-day move that held 5446 last week to hit 5570 on Friday (all-time high). Now we see if we hold 5520ish. We have CPI Thursday, PPI & bank earnings on Friday. And Powell speaks tomorrow. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA was a big money trade for our community as we hyper-focused here to clear the $191 and $199 area. It hit $252 Friday. It’s down small this morning which is no surprise because it’s a little extended. I’d think $242ish holds. It should be in play for the rest of the year so keep it on the radar. AMZN gave a big money trade when it cleared the $189-$191 area to see $200ish. Some news about Jeff Bezos selling stock slowed it down. It can still see $205-$210. The first step towards that would be a high volume move over stay above $200.55. MSFT has been a great Power Plays name. It cleared key levels at $433 and $457 to hit a high of $468 on Friday to manage. There is no real setup now. NVDA finally woke up last Wednesday as it went through a “re-build” stage. Friday it was out of play. I’m long versus the $125 area. We’ll see if it can hold today and trade better. The next spot to clear would be $129ish. AMD chopped up traders for months then finally cleared $166-$167 with volume and authority Friday. It’s giving some upside follow-through this morning to trim. Chances are this works back to at least the $183 area. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Take a Blue Collar Mentality Every day is a fresh start. As traders, we must maximize the opportunities that are in front of us at the present moment. Forget about what happened yesterday, and don’t obsess over what may happen tomorrow. Let’s say you have a bad Friday. Don’t come in on Monday thinking you have to make up for it. You won’t be able to manage risk because you’ll be trading out of desperation. Even the best of us have rough stretches. But if we follow our principles and enter every day with a plan, our good days will outweigh the bad. Just take it one day at a time. On the flip side, if you make a fortune on Monday, don’t get lazy on Tuesday! Stick to your plan and make the most out of what you see. This Week’s Calendar There’s not much going on today. But the rest of the week will be busy with Powell Testifying, CPI, PPI, plus bank earnings Friday. Should be interesting with light summer volumes, which could create volatile action. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-08 at 10.14.59 AM
Continue Reading -->NVDA: $122.60 Is the Level to Watch
Brought to You By Power Plays SPX futures are +9 after big first-half gains of 14.5% with a high of 5523. What will Q3 bring? As active traders, we go day-by-day and week-by-week to figure out the flows. Will money rotate to energy and bios? Can semis and mega-cap tech keep their leadership? Will the Fed cut in September? Those are the questions we’ll let the market answer. This week, we’ll see if 5446 holds to keep this upper level intact. Remember we close at 1 pm Wednesday, and then we’re off Thursday for the July 4th holiday. A tech sell program hit late Friday. We’ll see if this repairs fast or if we see downside continuation below $478ish in the QQQ’s. $473 is key to the complexion of the week. Now let’s dig into some individual names: NVDA was $136+ when I said the semis were overheated. Last week’s low was $118, and it bounced to $128. But it still needs time to rebuild. I did take some home and we’ll see if new flows come in, or if it works lower in Q3. For today, it’s down a little. See if it reclaims $122.60 or stays below. I bought OXY for the re-balance trade around $59.50 and sold most into the $63.50 area. Seems like this can work higher. It needs to hold $61.50. AAPL: Friday’s last 5-minutes felt mechanical, so I did buy into the close. I trimmed some this morning. I’ll see if this candle repairs fast. Strength was sold almost every session. For now, use $210ish as key. A move and hold below can send this back towards the $206 area. TSLA finally had a big money trade. I loaded up on options and stock last week. It cleared $189-$191 and hit a high of $203+ Friday, where I took it off. Some rolled into $202 or $205 calls for this week. I wasn’t at my desk to reposition. I did manage half. Deliveries hit tomorrow. Know what you can handle. META is so sloppy. It got hit at the end of the day with tech. We’ll see if it can hold the $530 area. Otherwise, it’s an avoid. It needs to hold $490ish. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Take a Blue Collar Mentality Trading isn’t about turning on your screens and swinging for the fences each day. It’s about hitting singles and doubles. Success comes from showing up and doing the work every day, the same way carpenters, ironworkers, and plumbers put together a building. For traders, this includes forming an effective trading plan, observing the market, and aiming for consistent profits. I’ve seen a lot of traders search and search and search for some kind of secret sauce. Hard, steady work is the closest thing to it. This Week’s Calendar US markets close early on Wednesday and are shut all day Thursday for the July 4 holiday. However, we do have some important data points this week — especially the JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment and Nonfarm Payrolls numbers.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Shares His Next Favorite Pick on Fox Business
Scott went on Fox Business last week to share his thoughts on where there’s opportunity in this market. In January, Scott was on Fox Business explaining why Nvidia (NVDA) and Eli Lilly (LLY) were set to soar — as Liz Claman explains in the clip below (scroll down to watch). Nvidia’s up 161% since… Eli Lilly’s rocketed 52% YTD so far. He shares why the market could be rolling over starting July 1st. Your big names could slow down. Those that were bringing up the rear, could take the spotlight as the 3Q begins. With that rotation, Scott believes one famous tech name is set to take the lead over the Nvidia’s and Apple’s (AAPL) of the world. With Nvidia pulling back… Scott shares his approach on the semis, including: Why he called the semis overheated on June 20 Why laggards could start moving starting July 1st The #1 tech name for 3Q that Scott loves (note: it’s already taken off since this clip aired so be careful!) Check out the clip below: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com BONUS CLIP: Scott was also on Neil Cavuto’s Fox Business show recently too. Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com For many traders, the market feels very ‘narrow’ right now. You have the S&P and Nasdaq making new highs… but sectors like energy are still sputtering. It feels like the opportunities are few. In this clip Scott goes over: How long this bull market may have left Scott’s call on a big tech name that’s doing well Scott’s ‘rebalancing’ trade for cashflow The unique options play that feels “out of nowhere” Want to see Scott’s trades BEFORE he shares them on TV? Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-26 at 2.12.05 PM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler on NVDA: THIS Is the Key Area to Watch
Welcome to this week’s edition of Dog Bytes. To get this content by email every Monday, enter your email at the bottom of this page. We have mixed markets around the world as we head into the last week of the second quarter. Europe is green while Asia is off small. Last Thursday, I warned that the semiconductors were overheated, and that proved a great spot to sell some winners. Some sophisticated traders made money shorting SMH, NVDA, AVGO, etc. as well as buying SOXS. It feels like we have a tactical top in that sector as we see if money rotates into the rebalance from last week. SPX futures are +5. Last week’s low is 5452, with the 8-day under at 5440. Treasuries are flat across the board and Fed expectations are holding steady. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AMZN woke up last Thursday with a nice move through the $185 area. I bought a lot of $192.50 calls for July 5th. If this can hold $187ish now, it can clear the channel to hit $200+. It’s one of my favorite names now. TSLA has so many conflicting stories. It hasn’t been special since last December. The pattern is tight. I have some $192.50 calls for July 5th. This will need HUGE volume and hold above $189 to get some active momentum longs back here. $176 is key support. On Thursday, NVDA was a focus as usual, but to the short side for the first time this year. Some sold longs, some got short, some bought puts. Either way, my community was not buying. It was $140+ then, and on Friday, it hit a low of $124.30. I took some home long. I might need to wait until $118-$120 before looking to get aggressive. ADBE did fill some of its post-earnings gap but looks decent. It needs to hold $505, and if it clears $535, it probably accelerates for active cash flow. Your Trading Tip for This Week: Create a Daily Routine You Enjoy The number one thing traders waste time and energy doing is… figuring out how to use their time and energy. Create a daily routine that keeps you happy and productive. This includes everything from chart reviews to gym time to coffee breaks. There’s nothing less exciting than a schedule. But the more I plan out my day ahead of time, the easier it is to concentrate on the market. Plus, I have more energy for gym and family time, which is very important to me. Distractions kill your profits. So kill distractions with a routine! This Week’s Calendar Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-24 at 8.19.48 AM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler Talks Tech Stocks on Fox Business
On June 20, Scott Redler appeared on ‘The Klaman Countdown’ on Fox Business: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com Scott went over: Why he was bullish on Nvidia (NVDA) and Eli Lilly (LLY) to start 2024 — and whether they can lead again Why he said the semiconductor trade was overheated Thursday The “8 times an hour” rule The role of today’s triple-witching expiration What could happen to the leaders and laggards over the next week Why Scott likes Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Meta (META) from here Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-21 at 6.46.42 AM
Continue Reading -->SMCI: A Powerful Stock That Plays Mind Games
Super Micro (SMCI) is one of the trickiest names in the market. It’s been one of my best names as of late as I played it with options on the Alpha Team VTF®, offsetting tougher names like IBIT, which has struggled. And I do think SMCI has potential to head back to the $972 area, and eventually, back to the record highs over $1,200. But I exited my remaining SMCI options this morning at 11:13 am. Here’s why: SMCI takes a ton of emotional bandwidth to trade. It’s almost like a meme stock with all the wild intraday swings out of nowhere, and you can’t let it out of your sight. And I don’t want my trading performance to suffer because I’m overfocusing on SMCI all the time. Nvidia (NVDA), by comparison, is relatively tame — but still gives us wide price swings to potentially ride. Remember, you don’t have to be in everything to do well. Also, I’m keeping my eyes out on a potential rebalancing trade towards energy, which hasn’t participated in the recent rally. As you can see in my disclosures below, I’ve been long Warren Buffett favorite Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and XLE $88 calls for next Friday. I trimmed both of those positions today, but I’ll be looking for opportunities to add back. I’m not saying it’s time to go all in on energy — but it must be on the radar now. SMH is up 59% this year and XLE is up just 6%. So catch-up may be in order. Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-18 at 1.31.12 PM
Continue Reading -->Can This Weight-Loss Drug Stock Go to $1,000?
SPX futures are -5 as we see if 5402 holds or if they shake the tree this week. The trade is very narrow. There is some concern about rebalancing to end the second quarter, so stay on your toes. The recent SPX high is 5447. Last week, the SPY dip was buyable for a move to $544.12 post-CPI. Now, we see if this week is the same. Active support is in the $539-$540 area. Now let’s dig into some individual names: LLY, the weight loss drug leader, has given us tones of setups this year, which we’ve covered extensively. The last one was to clear the $800 area. It hit $885+. It needs to hold $852. If it does that, it can hit $1000+ can happen. TSLA keeps proving it’s worth ignoring as it hasn’t been special since last December. They sold the vote and Elon’s speech. There are tiny tactical things to do. Otherwise it’s an avoid. Friday’s low is $176.92 if you navigate this. MSFT was a focus as it reclaimed all the moving averages around $423. It hit an all-time high last week at $443+. It still looks good but we need to manage size. It needs to hold $433 now. FXI: China had a nice first half 2024 move. Then FXI went from $29.53 down to a low of $26ish on Friday. It could be time to accumulate again. I did buy some calls back. Your Tip for This Week: Take a Blue Collar Mentality Trading isn’t about turning on your screens and swinging for the fences each day. It’s about hitting singles and doubles. Success comes from showing up and doing the work every day, the same way carpenters, ironworkers, and plumbers put together a building. For traders, this includes forming an effective trading plan, observing the market, and aiming for consistent profits. I’ve seen a lot of traders search and search and search for some kind of secret sauce. Hard, steady work is the closest thing to it. This Week’s Calendar: Pretty Light Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-06-17 at 9.55.32 AM
Continue Reading -->Tesla $242 Is the Level to Watch
SPX futures are up 10 points after we kissed 4322 last Friday and pulled back a bit. I will see how we consolidate ahead of the CPI on Tuesday and FOMC on Wednesday. The active sequence from March was led by tech and started to broaden out a bit. Headlines this weekend talked about a “New Bull Market” but these definitions like “20% off the lows” have become more meaningless over the years. As long as we hold 4290ish, it’s hard to get too bearish. SPY hit a high of $431.99 on Friday and also touched $429.62. I will see how tight things get ahead of Wednesday. I did well buying SPY calls into weakness for the past few weeks. Tech continues to do a lot of the heavy lifting. The downtrend line was cleared in March and every time they try and rotate the flows, it repairs like we saw last Wednesday into Thursday. QQQ’s have active support at $353ish. As long as that holds, it’s hard to get too bearish here. I did well selling calls above the market last week. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AAPL provides ways to trade around a position. Investors and traders are being rewarded. The $180 area needs to hold to set up a potential move back to the $184.95 highs. TSLA: we were rewarded for getting very bullish on TSLA when it cleared $169.76 on May 17. There have been so many ways to make money since then with options and stock. It hit a high of $252.42 on Friday. It feels a little extended. I would trim if I was heavy in it. It seems like some digestion can happen. Holding the $242 gap pivot keeps it super special. Below and it can get choppier. META helped lead this tech rally with a high of $276ish and it’s now in rebuilding mode. $258ish is the recent low. See if early strength holds or fades today. $267.59 is Friday’s high. NVDA is trying to rebuild since the $419 high. Recently, it held $373ish and bounced. It seems like when it’s green, it goes red. And when it’s red, it goes green. So there is not much to do this morning. AMD gave us a super move from $91ish to $130+. It’s been in a corrective/digestive mode this past week. It held the $115.80 area again. I would keep taking trades, but I would trim some this morning. See how it holds up ahead of its AI chip unveiling event. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-06-12 at 9.12.01 AM
Continue Reading -->Why $183 Matters for Apple
SPY held the 8 day last week and Thursday. I bought some $421 calls for another breakout. SPY hit $428.74 and I took off half for ~75%. I’ll trim the rest because they expire today. If we pull back a bit, I may add higher strikes. $431.73 is the high from last August. QQQ: tech led the rally since March with many nice setups along the way. It might underperform in June. $352ish is upper support. We can’t get too bearish if that holds. The AAPL event at 1:00 will be interesting. If that doesn’t get sold, QQQ shorts will get punished. I sold premium higher to generate some cash flow. Now let’s look at individual names: AAPL: there are lots of upgrades and articles ahead of the 1:00 p.m. ET WWDC event with talk about AR and AI. They usually try and sell these events. $183 is a very interesting spot. See how it deals with that today. I bought stock and options as it held the post-earnings gap. I’ll trim stock and hold options in case it clears the all-time high. TSLA has kept rewarding traders since clearing $169.76 where I put my swing long on. It’s given us multiple setups with plenty of options trades. It hit $217.25 Friday. I switched to another call spread and I’m still long. I’ll trim some and hold some. NVDA had a huge move that gave us so many ways to buy and trade it. The stock hit $419.36 with a topping tail to give clues it might need to consolidate for a while. We can be tactical here. Some got short Friday as it went green to red with a low of $390.58. This morning, see if there’s a signal to go red to green, or if it sees $378 active support or the important earnings gap pivot. AMD triggered long after I listed it around $91.60. it’s been special since then and above the 8 day. Last Tuesday, I mentioned to trim or look for a cute short as it was super extended. It hit $130.79. On Friday it made a lower high at $121 and went red. This morning it will be testing the $115.80 gap pivot. I’ll see if there’s an active buy vs. a 5-15-30 minute low. NFLX is tricky at times, but it gave so many set ups that I went over here. Last week it held $385ish and hit a high of $407.52. Use the 8 day as your guide. MSFT is still rewarding swing longs. It’s been riding the 8 day with a high of $337.50. Keep managing the trade. Many are doing well with it. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-06-05 at 9.21.23 AM
Continue Reading -->5 AI Stocks to Watch This Week
SPX futures are +22, giving upside follow through to Friday’s move above the 4160-4180 area with a close above 4200. It seems like we can reach the 4325 high from last August. But take trades along the way. We’ve had many nice setups the past few weeks because we focused on setups instead of calling tops or predicting recessions. SPY: I bought $416 calls last Thursday for a potential Friday move. It cleared $416 to see $420.70. This morning, it’s at $422+. I’d trim and trail but it seems like it can work back to the $430 area. We’ll see if today’s move builds. QQQ has led the way higher since the March ignition above the downtrend line. Last week the gap up from NVDA held and on Friday it cleared $341 to see $349.25. This morning we are at new monthly highs. I always trim when a gap like this is in my favor. I might sell some calls for this Friday as a way to hedge. Now let’s dig into some AI-related names: AI became a huge winner again. I got into a swing long in the $22 area. Last week I also put on some $30 calls that are up 300%. Make sure to manage it. We’ll see if it can hold the March high of $34.68 to build. NVDA helped add fuel to the tech rally. I made 5Xish on my call spread for earnings. Some bought vs. the post-earnings gap at $366. This morning it looks above $394.80. Congrats to long-term investors and short-term traders here. I’d trim and trail. MSFT continues to reward swing longs from the post-earnings gap of $292. it gave multiple entries since then. It hit $333.40 Friday. I’d make sure to trim some this morning because it’s a bit extended. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy short. GOOGL became a big focus for us around $105ish and it hit $126.43 last week. It has another bull flag setup. See if it clears that. Some are long vs. $119.50. Others are waiting for it to clear that pivot. SMCI has been a rock star. Lots on the VTF® did very well here. I’d trim some because it’s extended but it’s not an easy short. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-05-30 at 8.25.49 AM
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