All posts by Scott Redler
The #1 Question Traders Are Asking Right Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. We have mixed markets around the world as we head into the last 4 months of the year. Market expectations call for 103bp of cuts for 2024, so economic data is important into the Fed on 9/18. The #1 question right now is “how dovish can Powell be with the SPX 2% or so off all-time highs?” The upper range was lost, and most sectors are challenged. QQQ, SMH, and Mag 7 names feel bent or broken technically, while utilities and value are doing better. Tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report is important because it will help the Fed decide on a 50bp cut as hopes for a soft landing persist. IWM showed relative weakness early Tuesday and broke the $216-$218 area to resolve the pocket pivot lower. Yesterday was a decent red to green trade. Now it’s harder. The recent low is $211.71. It could do anything on Friday, so take care. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA showed relative signal the past two sessions, getting me tactically long. It’s up this morning above the $222-$224 area. I did trim some, but we’ll see if it can hold gains with the news of its software release in China. NVDA earnings report was not enough to ignite it. On Tuesday, it led the tape lower below the $116-$117 area. It hit a low of $104.12 and gave a small bounce yesterday. I tried some and am already out. It doesn’t look great. See how it handles yesterday’s low of $104.12. ASTS is getting a lot of attention. It’s hard to buy up here, but if you’re long, $27 needs to hold. If you’re short, take care if it clears the $39 upper pivot area. On August 8th, GLD got over $222ish to get some active longs back in. It cleared $229 to see the $234 area. It’s a bit sloppy up here and $228 needs to hold if you’re active. See if early strength holds or not. GOOGL showed the most relative weakness in the bounce sequence since the 8/5 lows. Yesterday, it broke its inside wedge lower. See if it’s the first name to test 8/5 lows ($154.93). Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-05 at 8.20.26 AM
Continue Reading -->My Tesla Game Plan – Watch THIS Level
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are -28 after Friday’s afternoon rally which took us to the upper end of the two-week range. It’s been a choppy trade with lots of false moves. We’ll see if dip buyers defend the 5581 active support area. A close below that, and I think active traders like me might reduce risk again. 5651 is key upper support. This week, we have Manufacturing ISM at 10 a.m. today, AVGO earnings after the close Thursday, and the NFP report on Friday. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA showed a little power on Friday and is up a little this morning in a sea of red. I’m long small, and if it can hold the $214 area, I’d think it has some room towards $224ish. AAPL led the move off the 8/5 lows, and it’s been above the 8-day since then. If you’re active, I’d use $227.48 as key support. A break of that, and it can give clues that tech might be pressured, so keep your eyes on it. AMZN had its first relative strength day in a while. It cleared the $174 area to see $178.90 on Friday. It’s down small this morning. Let’s see if it can go red to green and continue to get better. AFRM gave us a pro earnings gap to trade against at $37.52, and then Friday went red to green to see $44.89 for extra cash flow. That gap needs to hold. LLY held the $825 pro earnings gap and regained leadership again. It’s been above the 8-day since then. Buying a dip is easier than trying to add on strength. It tagged the $972 ATH last week but faded, so watch size if you’re active. $930ish is key upper support. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Develop a Pro Mindset You can have a 180 IQ, but to succeed, you’ve got to adopt the mindset of a pro. Pros don’t think about Ferraris and private jets while they’re trading. We think about what we could lose. When you’re doing this for a living, your paycheck can actually be negative if you give enough money back. So always keep the worst case scenario in mind, and be ready to act to avoid it. Because while it’s important to win, it’s equally important to not lose. Every penny you avoid losing is another penny you don’t have to earn. This Week’s Calendar This week, we have Manufacturing ISM at 10 a.m. today, AVGO earnings after the close Thursday (key for semis & AI names), and the NFP report on Friday. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-03 at 8.07.05 AM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler on Fox Business: We Need an NVDA Blowout
On Tuesday, August 27, Scott Redler appeared on Fox Business’ “The Claman Countdown” to discuss the economy, Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and more: Scott goes over: Why he doesn’t expect a serious recession What it will take to make the Fed cut rates the way The Street expects Why Nvidia (NVDA) needs blowout earnings Key levels to watch in NVDA Why Scott put on an NVDA call spread to define his risk How Apple (AAPL) could get to all-time highs again Scott’s Positions Disclosures as of 2024-08-27 at 4.15.48 PM
Continue Reading -->Nvidia Earnings Week – These Levels Matter Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are +11 as the market is pricing in 34bp of rate cuts at the 9/18 meeting and 105bp of rate cuts for 2024, which could be aggressive. The 9/6 jobs report will be important, along with the July PCE on 8/30 and the August CPI on 9/11. We’ll see if early strength holds or fades. 5643 is pivot resistance – does it get and stay above? If so, 5669 is the July high. If we fade, 5560 is key support for the week. Now let’s dig into some individual names: NVDA helped lead the way after it gave us the 8/5 bottom trade. Then it cleared $106.50 to open the door for higher prices. Last Thursday, it failed to hold $130, giving us some clues that we can fade. It sold down all day with a low of $123.10. Friday’s action trapped some sellers. Results are Wednesday. See if it holds the $130-$130.75 area or fades again. We’ll see where it is on Wednesday for earnings option strategies. I said AMD can be better during this recent active bullish sequence. Some bought as it cleared the $138 area. It hit $162 last week. It needs to hold the $148 area. It might sit out until Wednesday’s NVDA results. SMCI seems to have a nice setup. Some are already long vs. $595. Others are waiting to see if it can get and stay above $632 then $640 to fill that gap up to $660ish at least. We might need NVDA’s results before it can resolve. GOOGL has been the worst Mag 7 name since the corrective phase. Some are trying to play this for some catch-up. $163 needs to hold. On August 8th, GLD cleared $222ish to get some active longs back in. It cleared $229 to see the $234 area. It’s starting the week green. $229 needs to hold. Those asset allocators buying every month for years are getting rewarded. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Focus on Execution First, Money Second If you get good at anything, the money’s going to come eventually. So focus on developing your skills and properly executing the strategies you learn. That’s what’s going to keep you in the game for the long run. Fast money leaves just as fast as it arrived. You want to develop a set of trading strategies that can give you consistent profits, no matter what’s happening in the market. Once your brain gets big, your wallet follows. This Week’s Calendar Things start off slow this week but heat up fast with earnings from NVDA, CRM, CRWD, CRM, DELL, MRVL, and others. Plus, we have the important PCE Price Index report and GDP. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-08-26 at 8.41.57 AM
Continue Reading -->META Is On My Mind – Here’s Why
Brought to You By Power Plays SPX futures are +12, giving some upside follow-through to last week’s bounce. PPI and CPI are coming up. These are the scenarios I have in mind: Scenario A: If we get inline/lower PPI and CPI, perhaps this bounce gets one more push towards the 5383 gap or even 5440ish (major spot). Scenario B: If the PPI/CPI is a bit hot, we can test some levels from last week starting near 5250ish. Last week’s low is 5119.Today I’d trim and trail as we just had a nice tradable move from last week, so get much more selective now. Now let’s dig into some individual names: META moved up the Mag7 Go-to list after the reaction to earnings. It’s still in a huge channel, but when this market gets better, this could be at new all-time highs first. The $492 area needs to hold. The next two resistance pivots are $527 and then $542. AAPL was a great focus one week ago into the $196-$202 re-test area. It hit $216.78 Friday. I’d reduce. $220ish will probably be big resistance if it sees it. If you don’t want to sell the name, maybe sell some calls to collect premium. NVDA was a focus last Monday and a great scoop into the $90.69 area. It’s very tight. We’ll see what it wants to do this week. It’s up a bit this morning. $103ish is active support. In order to tack on more gains, it will need to get and stay above $106.60, then $108.80 is above. PLTR reported earnings last week. Some are long vs. $25.57. It’s good to see a name like this holding gains in this environment. It hit an all-time high of $30.36. Manage your size. UNG was great from $15 to $20+ into June. It’s up pre-market around $14.70ish. This can hit $17.50+ish September/October. I bought some calls early last week. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Trading Tip for This Week: Don’t Overcomplicate Things Don’t get caught up chasing every bright shiny object and every new flavor of the month. You don’t need to know 100 strategies and 2,000 stocks. You can make a lot of money trading just a few strategies and a core group of 10-20 stocks that you know well. If you read my stuff, you know that my universe isn’t that big. I focus on 20-30 tech and momentum names while rotating other groups of interest in and out. It’s working for me, so why complicate things? Once you have your core strategies and stocks in place and you’re making money, you can start looking to expand your coverage. But don’t complicate things before then This Week’s Calendar We have a busy week coming with the US CPI & PPI reports, plus some big retail earnings. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-08-12 at 8.17.08 AM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s most important morning market video since 2020
With the market in turmoil, I’m going to share with you what I’m doing with my own portfolio today. It doesn’t matter what the market is doing… it’s up to you to follow your rules, not have FOMO, not blow up, stay in the game and move forward and more. I’ve been doing this since 1997. I’ve been around more than most and seen many disasters. (I famously alerted investors on CNBC about the 2008 crash before it happened). I help keep traders safe. When you’re below the 8/21 day moving averages, you are NOT in swing positions. I’m trimming a ton of positions today (and was last week). 4x per week, I release a 6:30 am morning call going over positions, setups, etc. So, since 2020, I’ve probably done hundreds of these. This one today may be one of the most important I’ve done since the Covid panic days. Let’s dive in. First, I’ll go through the S&P 500: You would’ve seen a Red Dog reversal last week to protect you today… plus, seen the 8/21 day indicators overlap letting you know to trim. I’ll go through what that means. You’ll hear what level I’ll start putting money to work. Next — I’m looking at Nvidia (NVDA)… this big name is in correction territory. I’ll show you what level I’m buying with both hands. You’ll hear about why I’m trading Apple (AAPL) today… I also go through Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT)… these are potential opportunities. Here is my entire 6:30 call. Watch it in 1.5x speed if you’re in a rush… but get educated on what’s happening in this market: Bonus message from Scott: If you want to get Scott’s #1 indicator and receive his market updates during this turbulent time, grab his free book and automatically receive his Dog Bytes newsletter every Monday. His #1 indicator would’ve alerted you to these massive market moves in mid-July! Start using this indicator today. Get it here. Scott Redler’s positions as of 09:34am ET August 5, 2024 Scott Redler is an Associated Member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG”), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades made are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. 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Continue Reading -->Market Meltdown
Brought to You By Power Plays Spiking recession fears have the market melting down. SPX SPY QQQ SMH all lost the 8/21day weeks ago to get us tactical. Means low risk and only some options as risk is premium paid. Paper cuts happen with left over options. Gushers happen when you don’t use stops and have too much risk if you trade for a living when momentum leaves. On days like today I simplify it. Only trade a few ETFs and very quality liquid names. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AAPL News Mr. Buffet sold 50% of his stake has some concerned. It’s still one of his largest positions, I think investors stay the course. Traders went tactical with me weeks ago when it broke the 8day and prior to earnings. Now, I think it’s buyable into the $198-$202 area hopefully we see it. META is worth watching as it’s a quality key name that acted well on earnings but the market was too heavy. $442ish area is major support. I’m glad we took our options off in the nick of time Thursday for 100%+. NVDA led this market higher and also gave clues to take risk down. Last chance to sell was last Thursday around the $118 pivot area or when it broke the $116 zone. This morning the news that its Blackwell chip is delayed 3 months has it lower. The 200day is near $87.50, a good spot to watch as a trader and investor to buy back. TSLA had a big gap and go to the downside like most things. I’ve been out of the way. The $188-$191 area was the old break out level that is worth a look this morning. Maybe it holds it at first kiss. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Know Your Time Frame If you’re a short-term trader, you have to know your levels, what sectors are doing, and what’s on the calendar each day. But if you’re a long-term investor in a 401(k) or 529 plan, just keep those funds pumping in every month. So for each type of account or portfolio you have — short-term, long-term, aggressive, conservative, etc. — let your time frame guide your pace of activity. Be active and tactical with your short-term money, and slow and steady for long-term wealth building. In my short-term trading account, I can be in and out of positions in minutes, but I never touch my retirement and college savings accounts. This Week’s Calendar All eyes are on the market as recession fears spike. It’s also another busy week of earnings, check it out: Positions Disclosure as of 2024-08-05 at 8.35.24 AM
Continue Reading -->The 4 Horsemen of Earnings This Week – The Levels You Need to Know
Brought to You By Power Plays SPX futures +18 as we kick off a very busy week. We have earnings from MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL, among many others hitting. The FOMC is Wednesday, and the jobs report is Friday. SPX hit a low of 5390 last week. We’ll see if the market bounces this week. Pivot resistance is 5490, then the gap starts at 5508 and fills up to 5520. Now let’s dig into some individual names, including the 4 earnings giants I just mentioned: MSFT broke its ascending channel first. It lost the 8-day around $457 to get most active longs out. It hit a low of $417 last week. Is the bar low enough into earnings on Tuesday? It has room up to $442. See how it handles the $429-$432 area. META reports Wednesday. It went from $542 to $442 last week. We’ll see what type of bounce happens. There’s a gap to fill up to $487 with gap pivot resistance at $476. There is a huge channel. Last quarter they said they would spend a lot. Maybe they don’t say that this time. This one is interesting for an options play. Did AMZN frustrate enough traders to finally work into earnings? I did buy some $202.50 calls and might add a lower strike. Earnings are on Thursday. We’ll see if it tries to bounce first. It needs to get and stay above $183.19 for that. AAPL went from $237 down to a low of $214ish. There is news that the AI phone won’t come until October. Strength has been sold for the past two weeks. Earnings are on Thursday. I think this will be awesome next year. I’m just not sure it’s worth a play into this print. We’ll see where it is on Wednesday-Thursday. $220/$221 is resistance. GOOGL’s report wasn’t powerful and the stock got hit down to a bottom tail low of $164 on Friday. Barron’s said it’s a buy this weekend. It has room to $173-$174 this week if the market holds up. It’s not that interesting. TSLA is trapped between two gaps after getting hit post-earnings. It’s up a bit this morning. Does early strength hold or fade again? $226 is gap pivot resistance. Recent support is $214ish. Not much to do. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Use Technicals – Not News Headlines and Economic Statistics – As Your Guide to the Markets I earn my living trading, so price is the only thing that really matters. The news flow and macro trends are important, but not as much as actual market movement. Be aware of what’s going on in the world. Just take it all with a grain of salt. We make money by riding price movements — not by being trying to be ‘right’ about politics and the economy. Remember the Brexit or the 2016 US Presidential election? The news headlines said the world would end. The price action said otherwise — and the price action was right. Doomsday will hit sooner or later — but allow the market to tell us when. This Week’s Calendar This is a pivotal week. On the economic side, we have the FOMC decision, ADP employment, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. And of course, we have tons of big earnings reports – Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and plenty of others: Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-29 at 7.45.47 AM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What This Sell-Off Means
Brought to You By Power Plays On July 24, Scott Redler appeared on Fox Business with Liz Claman and JP Morgan’s Phil Camporeale to discuss the market environment: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com Scott goes over: How he predicted the semi top on June 20 Why you can’t ignore a leading sector breaking down Why Scott expects a more tactical environment How to succeed in an environment like this Why we could hit new summer lows Whether it’s time to chase the regional bank stocks Why he doesn’t think the Fed is cutting rates next week What it will take for the Fed to cut Don’t forget to check out Power Plays. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-25 at 7.29.04 AM
Continue Reading -->IWM Case Study: How the Red Dog Reversal Works, Long and Short
Brought to You By Power Plays The Red Dog Reversal (RDR) is a trading technique I use to catch countertrend moves in an oversold or overbought stock. It’s been one of my bread-and-butter strategies for years. And my community just had the chance to use it both long and short with IWM — within the span of a few days. As many traders know, IWM recently went on a tear when small caps look over leadership from large-cap tech. But IWM has been quite volatile, allowing us to play it from both sides. And today I’ll show you how you could have spotted a nice shorting/selling opportunity — followed by a long. First, we’ll go over the Red Dog Reversal Sell Rules . Here are the 4 steps to a Red Dog Reversal Sell: Stock is up for multiple days Stock goes above prior day’s high Stock trades back below through prior day’s high, which is where the sell/short triggers The stop is set at the current intraday high Here’s how it played out with IWM: IWM rose for 5 days in a row into 7/16 On 7/16, hit a high of $224.86 On 7/17, IWM went above $224.86 and then below for a sell/short at that level Stop is set at the new 7/17 high of $226.84 Since the short entry is $224.86 with a $226.84 stop, we are looking at risk of $1.78 per share. And on Monday July 22, IWM hit a low of $215.38. (more on this important level below) I was happy about the decline 0ff the highs because I was short the IWM ETF plus IWM calls. Those positions were getting hairy when IWM was ripping, but it resulted in a nice profit. And on Friday, July 19 — I flipped it around. I went home long IWM calls and short IWM puts (shorting puts benefits from rising prices) — just in time for Monday’s rebound. Incidentally, that $215.38 level mentioned above was a Red Dog Reversal buy. Here are the Rules for a Red Dog Reversal Buy: Stock is down for multiple days Stock goes below prior day’s low Stock trades back up through prior day’s low, which triggers the entry The stop is set at the current intraday low Here is how it played out on the chart: IWM fell 3 days in a row through 7/19 On 7/19, IWM hit a low of $215.85 On 7/19, IWM broke below $215.85 and reclaimed it to trigger long Stop is set at the new 7/22 low of $215.38 With a long entry at $215.85 and a stop at $215.38, the trade would have risk of 47 cents per share. IWM soon hit $220+, which was an impressive move for trade with 47 cents of risk. While not every Red Dog Reversal trade works out, it’s certainly exciting when they do. And in this case, it showed how effective it can be both long and short when you are opportunistic. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-22 at 3.25.55 PM
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