All posts by Scott Redler
Tech Earnings Time
We have small red arrows around the world as we head into the busiest week of earnings. The SPX was in the same spot 2 years ago and at the start of 2023. The year of the range that is squeezing out the excess of 2020. The Recession that’s been predicted for 9 months still isn’t here. We’ll see how we react to earnings this week. We can’t get too bearish if 4090 holds. SPY held the $410 area a few times. This range feels vulnerable at times but is still intact. We should get some type of move because it’s a big earnings week. Pivot resistance is $412.68. QQQ still has a big cup & handle type look. We need some good earnings to resolve it. A strong move this week above $317.40 then $321 sets it in motion. A move and close below $314 and all of a sudden it fails. Have plans for both scenarios. Now let’s look at some tech names, including some of this week’s big earnings reports: GOOGL reports Tuesday. Expectations are low. $109 is a big pivot area. If you want to take a call spread, I’d perhaps look at a $107/$112.50 or $110/$115. The risk-reward is decent if you think it reacts well. MSFT also reports Tuesday and has high expectations. $292-$294 is a big area to watch. It needs to get and stay above that to react well post-earnings. A $295/$305 call spread may work. META held the 21 day Friday with a low of $209.58 to trade against. It reports Wednesday after the close. Expectations here are pretty high. We’ll see if there’s a play Wednesday. I’d trim today and see if it holds $213.41. AMZN ignited last Wednesday and started to act better. It hit $108.15 We’ll see how it reacts into earnings Thursday. AAPL is trying to consolidate higher. GS said results should be better than feared but earnings aren’t till next week. See if $164.49 can act as upper support. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-04-24 at 10.10.15 AM
Continue Reading -->A Big Earnings Week
We have mostly green arrows around the world as we get ready for earnings season to continue. JPM kicked it off with a strong move Friday. SPX is above the 8 day and as long as it holds the 4102 area, it’s hard to get too bearish. 4163 is the recent high. 4195 is the February high. Know what you own and why during earnings season because you can get outsized moves in both directions. Now let’s dig into some individual names: NFLX reports Tuesday. It’s pretty tight. I’m not sure if I will play it yet. Last quarter it led tech with a gap and go. This time it might be hard. To see $379, it will have to get and stay above $379. We’ll discuss on Tuesday. In order to see $320, it needs to get and stay below $332. TSLA is tricky when it doesn’t lead tech. Expectations are lower since the deliveries missed. Earnings are on Wednesday. I’m not sure if I’ll play it. Until then, see if it holds the $180 area Recent resistance area is $189-$191. AMZN perked up again as it cleared the 8 day. I did nibble a little. If this is any good, it shouldn’t really get back below $101ish. I managed it decent on Friday. META continues to ride the 8 day as it made a new weekly high of $222.11 Friday. I did sell mine after buying the weakness. If you have this on as a swing, use $217 as key active support. I’d think the $217 area will hold if this is going to keep leading. JPM’s beat almost felt too obvious as most flows from regional banks went to the majors. It had a big gap and go Friday and hit $139.12. It might need to digest a few sessions. See it holds $134.90. SCHW reports today. It should be interesting as they are trying to ease investor concerns. It hasn’t bounced much. Active support is $48, then $45. Pivot resistance is $53. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-04-17 at 9.02.07 AM
Continue Reading -->5 Tech Names to Watch
SPX futures are -14ish as we see if Friday’s lows hold. Bank earnings are on Friday. Tech has been the place to be and we’ll see if that continues. On Friday, the index held the 8 day, giving us 4069 to be long against. We can’t get too bearish if that holds. 4133 is pivot resistance. SPY hit a high of $411.92 last week and held the 8 day Friday with a low of $405.68 to use. Maybe we will digest to create a bull flag pattern for higher prices. So far there has been decent digestion from the move we saw in March. As long as Friday’s low holds, we can’t get too bearish. Tech still acts best. We’ll see if that continues. On Friday, QQQ held the 8 day with a low at $312.82ish. As long as that holds, we can’t get too bearish. $318.55 is pivot resistance then $321.68 is the bigger spot. Now let’s dig into some tech names: AAPL was a great swing trade for many from $153ish up to $166.84. It hit the bigger downtrend line. On Friday it held the $161 area. There is some news that handset softness is taking place around the world. See if it matters. We’ll see if there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to trade against MSFT continues to reward dip buyers. Some swing traders are long from the $255 area. Others bought again Friday as it held the 8 day and showed relative strength. We’ll see how it acts this week for active cash flow. I’d think as long as $288ish holds, some will stay long. META has been a big cap tech leader for most of 2023 as it’s been above the 8/21day for weeks/months with multiple setups for cash flow. On Friday it held the 8 day and closed well. We’ll see how it acts this week. Use $208-$209 as key active support. GOOGL changed character In early March as it cleared the $97 area. It’s sort of had “Go To” status since then. It performed best while I was on vacation last week. Now we see if it holds the $106ish area to stay special. TSLA hit a high of $207.79 before my trip. This is why I only take options into binary events like the delivery number which missed. I sold my stock well, but lost on the call spread. Friday’s low was $179.74. See if it holds that. It’s not special — just a tactical trade here and there for cash flow. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-04-10 at 9:26 AM Scott was long AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, PLTR, QQQ, BBIO calls, MGM puts
Continue Reading -->7 Tech Names to Watch
We have mixed-to-mostly green markets to start the week. News that SVB assets are being bought is lifting regional banks and some majors. In Europe, the DAX is +1.3% with the CAC +1.2% and FTSE +0.9%. Asia is mixed. On Friday, the SPX reclaimed 3909 to close well to get some to cover shorts and balance things out with a few longs. There’s a big down trendline in the SPX. If it can get and stay above 4010ish with authority this week, perhaps it opens the door for a surprise rally. Tech has a lot of constructive patterns. We’ll see if the sector stays special to buy dips if the QQQ’s hold the 8 day like Friday. Some are long vs. $306 and others are waiting for a high-volume close above $313-$315. Friday’s high is $311. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AAPL was a big focus of ours from $153 to $162+. I bought some back into Friday’s weakness. I’ll stay in vs. the $157 area and see if it can rebuild to see $162+ in time. MSFT has had go-to status since the Red Dog Reversal buy around the $247.60 pivot on March 21. It peaked at $283. It seems like it’s been setting up again for more upside. I’m long vs. $275 and might add if it can get and stay above $283. It could go towards $294. META has led tech the past few months. It hit a new 2023 high of $207.88. Buying dips vs. the 8 day continues to work. Some are long vs. $203ish. Others are waiting for a high-volume move to clear $207.88. Be careful because it’s a little choppy up here. TSLA didn’t lead this past tech move but it gave opportunities. I did sell mine above $200 from the $178 area. On Friday it held the $187 area. See if it can stay above $192.36 to get a little better today. GOOGL started acting better as it gave a few entries like $89.42 and then $97ish. Some are long vs. the $103 area. Others are waiting for it to show some power by clearing and holding $106.60, then $108. ADBE has a nice bull flag if tech wants leaders. Some are long vs. $360. Others are waiting for a high-volume move and hold above $377.40. CRM continues to act better than most names. Some are long vs. $186. Others are waiting for a high-volume move and close above $191, then $194. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-03-27 at 7.02.04 AM
Continue Reading -->5 Financials to Watch on the Credit Suisse Mess
We have mostly red arrows around the world to start the week as we absorb news of CS being taken under at 77 cents. FRC is down 20% as the powers that be try to figure it out. Banks closed near last week’s lows while money hid in megacap tech. We have Powell Wednesday and Xi visiting Russia. SPX futures were all over the map from +22 last night to -40 at 4:30 am to flattish around 7:00 am. We’ll see if 3900ish holds to stay intact ahead of Powell this week. As of now, the market thinks we get a 25b pps raise at most, and then a full-point cut before year-end. This is a headscratcher. See if tech holds up, and if banks go red to green. Now let’s look at some of the major financial names in the news: BAC is still one of the weakest big banks here as it’s below 2022 lows. Friday’s low is $27.62. See how it reacts around that today. FRC is under pressure and there is lots of talk about potential deals. The low from last week is $17.53. It’s down 21% this morning. See how it reacts today. SCHW gave a nice options opportunity at $48ish. I bought calls for $3, sold half at $8ish, and created a spread on the rest. See if $53.76 holds this week. COIN did a Red Dog Reversal long last Monday around the $51.57 pivot. It cleared $66 Thursday to kiss the 200 day Friday. It’s up this morning as BTC looks headed to $29k. I’d trim and trail. Bitcoin reclaimed $20.4K and cleared $22.5K to see $26K+. I discussed the bull flag setup. Some are long vs. $23.8K for a move to $29Kish. It’s at $28K to manage. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2023-03-20 at 7.30.41 AM
Continue Reading -->How Charts Can Help You Avoid Disasters Like SIVB & SBNY
The regional bank crisis is one of the biggest stories of 2023. Investors in stocks like SVB Financial (SIVB), Signature Bank (SBNY) and others are staring at billions of dollars in losses. But, you could have avoided the trouble if you understand some simple trend analysis rules Let’s start with SIVB since they were the driver of this mess. There was nothing in SIVB’s chart that said “buy me” or even “hold me.” The stock’s been in a long-term downtrend, and it was rejected at the 200 day on February 2before losing the 8/21/50 day once again: So even if you didn’t get out on February 2, you had weeks to exit before the implosion. Signature Bank (SBNY) had an even worse chart than SIVB and appeared to be the next domino to fall. That’s why I bought puts, as you can see on my disclosure at the bottom of this article: And as for Credit Suisse (CS), it seems like it’s in a scandal of some kind once a year. But even before its latest problem (financial reporting issues), the chart has been screaming get away: Now let’s look at the The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) is obviously a major focus. And it gave a signal to exit on February 21 at $62. Then it broke the 2022 low at $56 – another sign to exit: Now, see if KRE holds Monday’s low at $41.92. Wednesday’s $44.64 low is important too. That will tell us a lot about sentiment. XLF also signaled trouble. Remember, banks are supposed to do well when rates are rising. But on March 7, XLF put in a big bearish engulfing red candle. That was a big warning that the sector could be in trouble. JP Morgan (JPM) is thought of as the “best in class” bank, but even it couldn’t escape the heat. It also put in a bearish engulfing candle on March 7. Finally, we have Bank of America (BAC). Of course it’s getting hit like the other banks. But it failed to make higher highs in February the way JPM did. BAC also just broke the 2022 lows. The chart is telling is there are more problems ahead. So keep a close eye on it. The lesson here is simple. Charts usually tell us something’s in trouble before the news. You didn’t need to know about SIVB’s failure to manage interest rate risk to know the stock was an avoid. You just needed to see the chart was in a clear downtrend. The same is true for SBNY, CS, FRC, and the other declining names. You can even go back to the peak of Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and high-growth names back in February 21. The charts went into downtrends well before growth numbers slowed. Moving averages are not a magic bullet. But they do a great job of telling you the temperature of the trend. With the banks, it was clear things were cooling off. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-03-16 at 8.34.27 AM
Continue Reading -->5 Banks to Watch Right Now
There are many moving pieces this morning. The Fed, Treasury, and FDIC came out to breed some confidence by backing bank deposits. Three banks failed in the past week. Everyone is trying to compare this to Bear, Lehman, MF Global, Worldcom, Enron etc, but it’s too early to tell. Some are saying the Fed will cut rates, or at least stop raising. What does that mean? The SPX isn’t even at the December low of 3760, which is way above the October low of 3491. Even with all these volatile events. So to me, Friday’s SPX low of 3846 shouldn’t be the 2023 low. The Oscillator went out at -80 so we will get a bounce attempt. 3908-3928 is resistance. The major area is 3960ish. Sectors are not created equal. Know what you own and why. At times like this, if you want to take a shot at something, I’d use calls or puts so the risk is defined. SPY did another Red Dog Reversal sell around the $399.71 pivot last Thursday. On Friday it broke below $390.53 to see $384.33. This morning it’s been very erratic. If they try and rally, $390-$392 is resistance. Above that is $396ish. If they sell them, see how it handles $384.33. Below that is $377ish. Now let’s dig into the financials everyone’s watching: JPM did a Red Dog Reversal on Friday around the $129.22 pivot. This will be important because it seems like the major banks are getting the flows from all the regionals. It’s down small. See if it goes green or if sellers come in. BAC isn’t special but it did a small Red Dog Reversal long after a big move lower. SCHW got hit hard and fast to show risk can happen. $75 was the trigger sell, and it hit $64 Friday. This morning it was down below $50. If you think it’s overdone, I’d go out a few months with calls because the risk is the premium paid. Look at SVB and SBNY – some thought they were getting bargains but they’re zeros. Watch SCHW today for sentiment. COIN: I bought puts out a month in case this gets hit. But it’s a lotto play. BTC is up a lot today. SBNY: I bought $60 puts early Friday because it felt like this could be next. The stock seems like a zero so this should pay off big. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-03-13 at 9.02.02 AM
Continue Reading -->Why SPY $398 Matters Now
SPX futures are flattish after a big two-day move. The index did a Red Dog Reversal buy when it reclaimed 3939 and had power Friday to see 4048. I’d think we have a bit of digestion into Powell Tuesday, JOLTs numbers on Wednesday, and NFP Friday. Holding 3990-4010ish shows some commitment. SPY reclaimed $393.38 Thursday and had power to see $404.45 Friday. This morning it’s down small. Holding $402ish would be impressive to show high-level digestion. The active bulls need to hold $398ish this week to keep commitment to late last week. QQQ did a Red Dog Reversal buy as it reclaimed $290 Thursday to see $299.92 on Friday. AAPL’s upgrade by GS helps. It should be an interesting week as we see if the active bulls can keep the ball. Now let’s dig into some individual names. AAPL did a Red Dog Reversal buy Thursday. MS made it a top pick Friday. It hit a high of $151.11. This weekend GS upgraded it with a $199 target. I’d trim into strength, but it will be a focus. It will be hard for SPX to be so weak if this acts well. I’d trim and see if it builds or fades. TSLA made a low after its event at $186 and had a nice two-day move to $200.48. It might need to digest a bit. Holding $193.75 keeps it constructive. There is news they had to cut some prices again. We’ll see how it reacts. META is one of the better-acting stocks for now. Some are long vs. the $167.66 pivot. On Friday it hit $186+. I’m going to try and stay long. If the market holds in, this should see a move above the post-earnings high at $197+ in time. MSFT finally had a strong candle Thursday and then it hit a high of $255.62 Friday. It has some room to move, but it’s not special. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-03-06 at 7.24.55 AM
Continue Reading -->Why SPX 3995 Matters Now
SPX futures are up 18 after hitting a low of 3943 Friday. The Oscillator hit -62. I’d think any bounce gets contained into the 4028-4047 area. If it gets rejected at the 3995 pivot, I’d think Friday’s low breaks sooner rather than later. I didn’t put the BOS account to work yet. We’ll see how things look closer to 3885 . SPY started a new bearish active sequence on February 16 when it closed under $409.50. On Friday it hit $393.64 and gave a green candle. Some took it for an oversold bounce. I’d trim some. $399.75 is resistance. If we rally for a day or so, bears will need to reject the $401-$402 area to keep control QQQ’s broke $303 on 2/16 to start a downside active sequence. It hit $290.05 Friday. I did buy some late afternoon because things felt oversold enough. I did trim some at $293.50+ this morning which I always do when a gap is in my favor. I’d think any rally would get rejected into the $296-$298 area this week. Watch the leaders for clues. Now let’s look at some individual names: TSLA gave a Red Dog Reversal sell at $214.66 and worked its way down to $192.80 on Friday. It showed some relative strength to get some back long into today. I’d trim some and see how it feels. The March 1 event is almost here. How it responds will be big for sentiment. $205ish is resistance. AAPL broke its accelerated trend. On Friday it made a low of $145.72. If we get a rally attempt. $148.50-$149.80 is key resistance. NFLX gave clues that stocks can have upside after earnings In January. On 2/16 it resolved the inside range lower and made a new monthly low at $314ish. There’s some room to bounce toward $330ish. META has grinded lower since hitting $197+. Recently it hit $167.66 to trade against Maybe it can get and stay above $173.50 to act better again. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-02-27 at 7.26.30 AM
Continue Reading -->3 AI Stocks to Watch
We have mostly red arrows around the world as traders focus on inflation and geopolitical stresses. President Biden did a surprise visit to the Ukraine and Putin gave a delusional speech this morning. SPX futures are -32. Last week, the index broke the 4103 upper area to have us reduce risk. I bought SPY puts and shorted SPY calls which helps me this morning. We’ll see if the active bears have any power. Friday’s low is 4047. Some think we see the 3949 area in the week ahead. For that to happen, we need to see a move below 4047, then 4015. But let’s take things day-by-day. Let’s dig into some individual names, starting with 3 AI stocks: AI is still all the rage. It’s rebuilding. Maybe today it goes red to green for an opportunity. It needs to hold $22.65 now. MSFT strength was sold above the $270 area. For today, see how it handles the $254-$255 area. GOOGL got beat up fast post on the AI event. Last Tuesday it put in a bottom tail at $92.26. Some went long vs. that for a bounce. It hit $97+. See if the $92-$93 area holds today. TSLA gave a way to exit swing longs last Thursday around the $214.66 pivot. On Friday it was very resilient and went green with some power as $201.84 was reclaimed. We’ll see how it acts today. Maybe it goes red to green. We’ll see if we get a 5-15-30 minute low to trade against. AAPL got m3 out with a reversal around the $155 area. It might have broken the accelerated trend. See how it handles Friday’s low of $150.85. Does it hold that? $149 is a spot below. Watch it for market sentiment. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-02-21 at 7.19.34 AM
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