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SPX futures +18 as we kick off a very busy week. We have earnings from MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL, among many others hitting.
The FOMC is Wednesday, and the jobs report is Friday. SPX hit a low of 5390 last week. We'll see if the market bounces this week. Pivot resistance is 5490, then the gap starts at 5508 and fills up to 5520.
Now let's dig into some individual names, including the 4 earnings giants I just mentioned:
MSFT broke its ascending channel first. It lost the 8-day around $457 to get most active longs out. It hit a low of $417 last week. Is the bar low enough into earnings on Tuesday? It has room up to $442. See how it handles the $429-$432 area.
META reports Wednesday. It went from $542 to $442 last week. We'll see what type of bounce happens. There's a gap to fill up to $487 with gap pivot resistance at $476. There is a huge channel. Last quarter they said they would spend a lot. Maybe they don't say that this time. This one is interesting for an options play.
Did AMZN frustrate enough traders to finally work into earnings? I did buy some $202.50 calls and might add a lower strike. Earnings are on Thursday. We'll see if it tries to bounce first. It needs to get and stay above $183.19 for that.
AAPL went from $237 down to a low of $214ish. There is news that the AI phone won't come until October. Strength has been sold for the past two weeks. Earnings are on Thursday. I think this will be awesome next year. I’m just not sure it's worth a play into this print. We'll see where it is on Wednesday-Thursday. $220/$221 is resistance.
GOOGL’s report wasn't powerful and the stock got hit down to a bottom tail low of $164 on Friday. Barron's said it's a buy this weekend. It has room to $173-$174 this week if the market holds up. It’s not that interesting.
TSLA is trapped between two gaps after getting hit post-earnings. It's up a bit this morning. Does early strength hold or fade again? $226 is gap pivot resistance. Recent support is $214ish. Not much to do.
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Your Tip for This Week: Use Technicals – Not News Headlines and Economic Statistics – As Your Guide to the Markets
I earn my living trading, so price is the only thing that really matters.
The news flow and macro trends are important, but not as much as actual market movement.
Be aware of what’s going on in the world. Just take it all with a grain of salt. We make money by riding price movements — not by being trying to be ‘right’ about politics and the economy.
Remember the Brexit or the 2016 US Presidential election? The news headlines said the world would end. The price action said otherwise — and the price action was right. Doomsday will hit sooner or later — but allow the market to tell us when.
This Week's Calendar
This is a pivotal week. On the economic side, we have the FOMC decision, ADP employment, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
And of course, we have tons of big earnings reports – Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and plenty of others:
Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-29 at 7.45.47 AM