Daily Recap: Markets Close at Records
In today’s Daily Recap, Scott Redler talks about the market at all-time highs as we start this holiday shortened week. He spotlights some of the key events that have taken place this year and where things may be headed in the days ahead. Scott also looks at various sectors as well as high beta tech names.
Continue Reading -->Chef Scott Redler Shares His Secret Turkey Recipe
Family + friends + food + football + fitness (say that 10 times quick!) makes Thanksgiving one of my favorite holidays. Last year, I published my special Thanksgiving turkey recipe, but it got lost in our transition to a new tech platform. My team managed to dig it up, so we’re putting it out again for you just in time to go food shopping. I cook like I trade, and I trade like I cook. I keep things simple, and I go with what works. I’ve been using this recipe since my parents moved to Florida 10 years ago, and it’s what I’ll be serving them this Thursday afternoon. Ingredients List Turkey 3-4 long celery sticks 2 sticks of butter 2 oranges 3-4 lemons 4 whole onions 3 big hunks of garlic Salt Pepper Paprika Ms. Dash seasoning 1 can of pineapples 1 jar of orange or apricot jam The quantity of ingredients depends on the size of your turkey. Just scale up or down as you see fit. We usually get a frozen 20-pounder. And oh yeah — make sure you have a quality knife! It will make your life a lot easier. This Victorinox is a good one. I’ll take the bird out of the freezer Monday morning so it will be defrosted by Wednesday evening when I do my prep work. You know me. Whether I’m trading, running, or cooking, I never show up for battle unprepared. If you prepare properly the day before Thanksgiving, you’ll get better results with less stress on Thanksgiving… just like in trading! I’ll dice up 4 whole onions and 3 big hunks of garlic, and toss them in a large bowl. I then add salt, pepper, paprika, some Mrs. Dash seasoning, and mix it all up. Then, I’ll stuff it into the turkey. I’ll also put half a can of pineapples in there, and jam a stick of butter right in the middle of all. Then, I pour some orange juice and lemon juice over the turkey skin — just enough to get it wet. In a separate bowl, I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika for the skin. I spread it all over, making sure to get in all the nooks and crevices. Don’t be cheap! Then, I’ll wrap the turkey in a big bag and leave it in the refrigerator overnight. On Thanksgiving morning, I’ll cut a few long celery sticks in half and put them on the bottom of the pan. Then, I take the turkey out of the bag and place it on the pan. There will be a lot of juice in the bag. Transfer it to the bottom of the pan, and be careful not to spill any. It’s a real pain to clean up! Then I’ll mix up more salt, pepper, and paprika, and sprinkle it on top of the turkey. Now it’s time to stick the bird in the oven. After an hour, start basting it every 15-20 minutes. Take juices from the cavity and squeeze it on top of the turkey. Also, rotate the pan every hour or so. It should take about 4 hours to cook. Just follow what your meat thermometer says. When there is about 20 minutes to go, pour a jar of orange or apricot jam in a bowl, and add a softened stick of butter to it. Mix it together, and brush the turkey with it. Stick the turkey back in, but keep a close eye on it. We want a nice crispy skin, but we don’t want to burn it. Once the turkey’s done, take it out and let it sit for an hour before you carve it. By the way, if you’re not experienced in the art of carving up a turkey, here’s a good video that will help you get it right. Delay your carving as long as you can — turkey tastes best just when it’s cut! If you give this recipe a shot, take a picture, post it on Twitter, and tag me (@reddogT3) so I can see it! Have a great week, and an even better Thanksgiving!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Wall Street Stocks Look for Direction
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the post election action in the market as well as various sectors. He reviews the action in the SPX over this year and what it would need to take in order to see all-time highs. Scott also looks at a couple of sectors, as well as banks and a few new issues.
Continue Reading -->Trump Made Traders Like the Market Again
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side provides evidence for their views. So I like regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 5 sentiment measures I track, traders hated the market ahead of the November 8 US Presidential election. As you’ll see, that’s clearly changed. Let’s Dive In: 1) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 46.7% of individual investors are bullish, which is well above the long-term average of 38.5%. This is the highest level seen since February 2015. 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 62. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. This 62 reading indicates moderate bullishness. 3) VIX Spread – Bullish The 3-month VIX spread is at +4.69, which indicates traders are pricing in very low near-term volatility. This means traders are bullish. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio is at 0.65, with a 3-day moving average of 0.62. This indicates slightly higher-than-average bullishness, but nothing extreme, so I’ll leave it in the neutral category. 5) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 79 (79 calls for every 100 puts) this morning — which is a bearish reading. And the 10-day moving average is 82.9. That also indicates bearish sentiment. ******* Pre-election, 5 of 5 sentiment indicators were reading bearish. Now we have 3 bullish indicators, 1 neutral, and 1 bearish. So Trump not only changed the minds of a lot of voters, he’s changed traders too. And if the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs again, we could easily see the bulls go 5 for 5 in our next sentiment check.
Continue Reading -->What’s Happening: Anti-Trump?
Over the past couple of days, we’ve seen the big Trump trades start to reverse themselves a bit, with bonds rallying, financials falling, biotech dropping, and gold stabilizing. Bonds are up again today ahead of Yellen’s testimony, and odds are she’ll be asked about Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies. But since the Fed strives to appear apolitical, I doubt she’ll give anything concrete. Already this week, many Fed officials have been asked about Trump and many have been evasive, though there’s a growing consensus that Trump’s spending plans could give the Fed room to raise rates. The CBOE’s FedWatch Tool shows that traders are pricing in a 91% chance of a December rate hike. Oil is rallying on Saudi optimism regarding an OPEC deal. Yesterday, Russia offered similar vibes. OPEC reached a preliminary agreement back in September at the meeting in Algiers, but didn’t provide any details. Maybe it’s for real this time, but I wouldn’t count on anything until there’s an official announcement. Throughout 2016, we’ve seen a lot of false rumors and conflicting headlines, so try not to get too caught up in the chatter. Wal-Mart (WMT) is getting spanked on a same-store-sales miss, though Best Buy (BBY) is popping hard on a beat. Overall, markets feel compressed, which is a familiar theme this year. We get some exciting news (election, Brexit, etc.) following by a long string of back-and-forth nothingness as traders wait for something to happen. The VIX is at 13 and change, but 20-day realized volatility on SPX is at 10.6. So unless we get big moves soon, the VIX could easily drop back under 12.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Stalling or Digesting?
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews markets around the World as well as the U.S. Markets. The question to now answer is; are we seeing a digestion or stall? Scott looks at various sectors as well, including USO and XLE.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Question Marks
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler paints a portrait of the landscape out there as the markets are taking a little breather this morning. He provides the levels that he is looking at for support and what would need to happen to begin changing trends. Scott also looks at high beta tech which was able to close green yesterday and the strong move up in oil.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Watching Out for Fresh Signals
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the multiple day move up in the markets recently as well as various sectors and the increasing likelihood of a pullback. He highlights the strength in financials, specifically JPM and also looks at the move in yields. Scott provides levels of support and resistance to help you navigate through today’s action and looking ahead.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Daily Recap Video: Post-Election Rally Fizzles
In today’s Daily Recap video, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down today’s market action.
Continue Reading -->14.4% of Traders Say Trump Slays the Bull
Over the weekend, we sent a survey to the T3 Live community to get their thoughts on pressing market issues like the Fed, gold, and what they think could take this market down. If you’d like to participate in our next trader survey, sign up for this week’s forex webinar via this link: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10668137 Before I get started, let me point out the obvious: these survey results only represent a portion of the T3 Live trading community — NOT traders or investors as a whole. Still, I think you’ll find them interesting… especially when it comes to what traders think will destroy the bull market. So let’s go through our questions one by one: 1 ) The S&P 500 closed at 2164 on Friday. Will it make a new all-time high above 2193 before 2017? 81.3% of survey participants said the S&P will make new all-time highs before year-end. This was a pretty big surprise to me, given that broader market sentiment is fairly bearish. Then again, we’re less than 2% from a new record above 2193. 2) Gold fell 3.3% to $1225 on Friday. What will it hit first – $1200 or $1250? 58.7% said that Gold would hit $1,200 first, and so far they’re right. Gold is ticking lower today, and the downtrend isn’t showing signs of stopping. 3) Will the Fed raise interest rates in December? 74.3% of surveyed traders believe the Fed will hike in December. The CME’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 85.8% probability of a December rate hike. That’s not terribly far off. 4) Are traders too bullish or too bearish right now? 34.3% of respondents believe traders are too bullish. 19.3% believe traders are too bearish. And 46.4% think trader sentiment is just about right. Next time around, I’ll simplify this with just two choices — too bullish or too bearish. 5) Which sectors will perform best into year-end? The banks and biotechs have been ripping since Donald Trump’s US Presidental election victory, and our survey indicates that traders expect more of the same. A whopping 51.4% believe financials will lead into-year end. In second place was health care & biotechnology at 26.1%. Technology has been lagging, and just 5.8% of traders think it will lead into year-end. 6) Which area of the market will perform worst into year-end? On the flip side, traders expect bonds to lead the decliners’ column. 31.2% of respondents said bonds will perform worst into year-end with gold in second place at 16.7% 7) What single factor is most likely to break the bull market? Please be as detailed as you’d like. This question was an open-ended question designed to determine whether traders believe Donald Trump will disrupt the bull market. I wanted to see how many traders would offer up Trump without being prompted first. 14.4% of traders cited Trump as the single factor most likely to break the bull market. Meanwhile 15.6% of traders believe the Fed or monetary policy will be the culprit. 13.3% cited terror attacks or other negative geopolitical events. Here are some of the more interesting responses to this question: (I made minor edits for clarity) “The alt right and rising nationalism around the world.” “Too much too fast based on nothing new. The market is overbought and tech is selling off based on assumptions that Trump will go after them. If they really think he will and put taxes on imports, the companies will get ready for bad times which result in high unemployment.” “Interest rates going too high too fast because President-elect Trump has huge fiscal package that will require massive debt via bonds.” “Negative world event such as significant terror attack on or around inauguration.” “Debt will be a big drag on companies bottom line and government debt is unsustainable. So governments and Central Banks should continue to print and go nuclear on interest rates to try and finance that debt. Banks will then put that money to work by sticking most of it in the stock markets. There will be a big tug of war between inflation and deflation over the next couple years. Want to participate in our next trader survey? If so, sign up for this week’s forex webinar via this link: https://t3campaigns.clickfunnels.com/optin10668137 We’ll add you to the list!
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