Happy New Year!
We have mixed/quiet markets around the world as we close out the year. Europe is flattish and has a very tight pattern. It looks ready to rally. We’ve been long EWG calls in RAA since the Italian Referendum, and EWG/FEZ look like they’ll give more gains. In Asia, the landscape is a little different. The Nikkei had a big run and needs to digest. The Hang Seng has been choppy to the downside, though it was up 1.0%. The Shanghai was up +0.4%, but it needs time to show its hand. SPX futures are up 4-5 handles. Yesterday, most sectors hit new weekly lows but rallied back a bit to close off the lows. We saw a few Red Dog Reversals as some sectors traded below Wednesday’s lows and reclaimed them Thursday by day’s end. I’m not sure what today brings. The action may depend on whether we have any leftover rebalancing to work through. At this point, there are multiple scenarios to consider for the New Year. We’ve seen a little give on the post-Trump Trade, but not much. The USD came in a bit and Treasuries rallied. Some strong sectors tested the 21 day and held. Do new funds come in the first five days and drive the indices to new highs fast? Do traders book gains to push taxes out to 2018? Do some January effect-type trades take place in beaten-down names and sectors? We will have scenario A, B, and C. Whatever you do today, don’t let it ruin your holiday. Just focus on starting 2017 on the wrong foot. There will be more than enough time to figure out new relationships, correlations, etc. as the first few days develop. For today, see if the upside gap holds or gets sold. SPX has 2242 as pivot support for today and to start the year. If this holds, it would bring in new money to lift stocks in January. If they hit stocks fast in January, the important level will be the prior breakout area at 2193-2210. If they buy them fast, the first level to clear and hold above is 2262ish with the high of the range at 2277. A close above this and the door to 2325 opens for the first quarter. SPY put a low in at $223.84 yesterday. That will be your pivot support for today and to start the year. If they hit them fast, this needs to get taken out with a close below the 21 day. Then perhaps it can see $220ish. For today, see if SPY holds yesterday’s high of $224.89. For the bulls to come out quick in January, they need a trade and hold above $226.30 as the first step. Then the high of the range is $228.34. A close above this in the first few days of the year and the door to $232.50 is open. I will have a very extensive note to start the year on Tuesday morning as a lot can change between now and that open. For today, keep it light and get ready for the holiday and get your head ready for 2017. Remember, your time frame matters. Have a long-term plan with a 401k/403b/IRA/529 because over the long run, the bull market wins. But to participate, you must have a process that works for you. Never invest and live above your means. If you swing trade and trade for a living that’s different. It takes a routine, time, and commitment to a process. Combine that with discipline and humility, and you can win. Most importantly, live life and enjoy the time you have with your family and friends. A little fitness doesn’t hurt either. Don’t sweat the small stuff as it ends up being meaningless when you’re faced with the big things. Thanks for being a part of my community. Having friends like you on my team gave me a mission instead of a job. Happy New Year!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Fear Trumps Greed
In today’s Morning Call Express, Kurt Capra talks about the selloff yesterday and what may have been behind it. He also looks at the financials for clues as well as where GLD may be headed before truly reversing. Kurt also points out some of the retailers that may have additional downside today and points out an interesting pattern in AMZN.
Continue Reading -->Daily Recap: The Last Mile is the Hardest
In today’s Daily Recap, Scott Redler and special guest Lulu take a look at the action today which may have caught some by surprise. He also talks about how he navigated today in light of coming into today mostly long.
Continue Reading -->Chart Attack: SPX, FAS, AMZN and ACIA
Once again, quiet markets as we have 3 days left in 2016. This is a nice upper flag type pattern that usually leads to positive resolution. You can be long vs. 2256 or 2248 and, if you are quick, perhaps add above 2273 for a move to all-time highs at 2277. We’ll see if there is enough juice this week, or does it need new January 2017 flows to ignite it. Either way, a nice tight pattern to trade verse. Banks have been the best sector with multiple set ups along the way. Some are alread in the FAS vs. $41. If you think we get DOW 20,000 this can probably be a grab when it clears $42.25 for a move to clear highs of $42.83. Use Goldman Sachs (GS) as an indicator. AMZN has been consolidating since missing last quarters earnings. This pattern is tight. With the best selling holiday product and a huge online retail season electronically, I think this wedge resolves upwards. I am long and looking to add with a high volume move above $774.70 for a quick move towards $780 then to fill the gap up to $820. ACIA, last years high flyer, was cut in half. Two sell signals helped us get out of the way. Now, it’s tight and could see a January effect type move. It will need a high volume move above $68.30 to help trigger a day 1. I am long small and looking to add if it triggers and holds. The first target is $72 which is the 50 day.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Dow Keeps Inching Up Towards 20,000
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler gets us ready for the trading day. He looks at the SPX, drawing the key levels to be focused on and does the same for the financials. He also looks at oil and some high beta tech names.
Continue Reading -->Daily Recap: Still Waiting for Dow 20,000
In today’s Daily Recap, Scott Redler talks about the action in the markets on the first day back from the Holiday break and before the New Years break. He looks at some key sectors, names, and new issues.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: 2017 Count Down
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about some of the recent action in Europe and reviews where we are in the SPX. Scott also looks at how the financials and high beta tech are looking as we head into the end of the year.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Santa Drifting
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler gets us ready for today’s action by reviewing the Indices as well as some sectors. He also looks at some high beta tech names and new issues.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Salute the Flag
In today’s Morning Call Express, T3’s Scott Redler breaks down the morning market action.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Looking For Santa Claus
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the potential of a Santa Claus Rally and whether or not we will get DOW 20,000 before the New Year. Scott reviews the key levels and looks at some sectors for clues.
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