Protected: Scott Redler’s Pre-Election Market Breakdown
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Continue Reading -->Bears Trump Bulls Ahead of the Presidential Steel Cage Match
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side ever provides evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 5 sentiment measures I track, traders are certainly looking bearish heading into November 8’s Presidential election. Donald Trump’s wild-card image seems to be roiling traders’ nerves because of all the possible variables. Does he win? Does he lose? Does he lose and contest the outcome? Who really knows at this point? So let’s drill down to the numbers: 1) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 23.6% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%. But what’s really interesting is that bullishness has been below the long-term 38.5% average for 51 straight weeks, and 84 of the last 86. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 31 this morning — that’s just 31 calls for every 100 puts. And the 10-day moving average is 80 — that’s the type of reading you see after a major volatility spike, not before one. 3) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio has been over 1 for the past 4 days. That indicates serious bearishness. 4) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 17. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral. This 17 reading indicates extreme fear. 5) VIX Spread – Bearish The 3-month VIX spread is at -0.3, which indicates traders are pricing in high near-term volatility. This is bearish. ********* So we have all 5 of these sentiment indicators pointing bearish, and they’re likely to get more bearish as traders hedge against possible post-election downside. Interestingly, I hear a lot of traders chattering about going long into the election on the assumption that downside is already priced in. We’ll certainly see!
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Pre-election Oversold Bounce?
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about what has happen overseas and how that impacts the U.S. Markets. He also discusses the Facebook (FB) earnings and how it is acting pre-market. Scott also looks at other high beta tech name along with GLD.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Connecting The Election Correction Technically
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler discusses the Fed day today and the likelihood that it is a non-event as the U.S. Presidential Election has taken center stage. He reviews the action in the SPX given the sell-off yesterday and updates the new levels of support and resistance. Scott also looks at the bounce that took place in the Biotech (IBB) and a couple high beta tech names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Ranges and Noise
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler puts all this sideways action into perspective by looking at the longer term SPX chart. He then takes a look into the recent daily action, which has been choppy, to say the least. Scott notes that it is likely to stay this way until after the election. He also looks at some recent earnings names as well as FB which will report tomorrow.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Pressure Mix
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about the headwinds that the market is facing this morning. Specifically AAPL, now with earnings behind it and the levels that is has trading pre-market. He also talks about the levels he will be watching to trade around. Scott also reviews other high beta tech names as well as the recent action in Oil.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Markets May Find Traction
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about some of the constructive action we have seen recently. He also looks as the wedge formation that continues to build on the SPX. He also talks about the QQQ flirting with all-time highs. Scott also discusses several names including NFLX, MSFT, GOOGL, FB, AAPL (ahead of earnings) and others.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Merger Monday
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about all the mergers happening to kick off the week as well as some other factors leading to the bullishness this morning. He reviews the chart of the SPX and the key levels he will be watching as well as how he is playing this gap up. Scott also looks at high beta tech names like NFLX, FB, and AMZN. He also notes the action in Gold and Oil.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Sluggish With a Constructive Feel
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler updates the key levels of support and resistance on the SPX. He also talks about some earnings names that have reported as well as other names that are looking constructive.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPX, GOOGL, BABA
This morning the SPX futures are pretty much flat as things feel stuck below 2144-2149 but above 2114-2124. We’ll patiently wait to see which way this resolves as company earnings are released. Individual names will be better to focus on as there is more movement in them, for now. Google (GOOGL) finally gave a cleaner move above $816-820 and hit as high as $828.81. If you sold some strength buying into this $820 zone, it would be good if it holds for additional gains thru earnings. My 2016 target is north of $850. BABA was another great focus from my 2016 report. It has been the most active for us since we listed it back at $81-$85 and then $93.50 and again at $95. At this point, it is near weekly highs and it looks like all time highs can happen this year. Right now, it’s digesting above $99 and I may look into a different option strategy for next quarters earnings.
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