Morning Call Express: AAPL Picking
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about how to navigate the current range and what levels to be looking at to trade around or, if nothing else, be aware of them. He also talks about AAPL, his recent trade in it, and where to look for it move heading forward. Scott also looks at some individual names.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Elections & Markets For Debate
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler covers the current range in the market, ahead of earnings season, and the levels to be looking at for clues. He also looks at a couple sectors, banks, high beta tech, and a few new issues.
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Post-Debate Happiness
The Mexican peso is up 1.7% this morning, which means Mr. Market thinks Hillary Clinton won last night’s steel cage match US Presidental debate. Meanwhile, the pound sterling is still falling in the wake of Friday’s flash crash. Crude oil is rising after Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said crude could hit $60 by year-end. OPEC recently announced a production cut, though market participants would certainly like more detail. European equities are up for the first time in 4 days on strength in automakers, throuhg banks are still looking weak. Deutsche Bank (DB) failed to announce a deal with the Department of Justice as some traders expected. China resumed trading after a week-long holiday, and the yuan dropped to a fresh 6-year low. Goldman Sachs says that US and European markets could stumble a bit into year-end due to political risks, a weak economy in Europe, and high stock prices in the US. The US dollar is still in bull market mode despite Friday’s slightly soft jobs report. Traders are pricing in a 64% probability of a December rate hike, though keep in mind, the pace thereafter what matters. According to some very smart folks I’ve spoken with, there’s an excellent chance the Fed is one and done. However, gold is catching a bid today, so I’d watch for a pop in the beaten down gold miners (GDX). Apple (AAPL) is up fractionally this morning on news reports that Samsung temporarily stopped production of its Galaxy Note 7 smartphone. The device was already recalled, but even replacement models are catching fire, which is a PR disaster. SPX futures are up about 11 handles this morning, so we’re starting the week off on a positive note. Biotech is catching a bid this morning — it’s been lagging to see if the weak trend breaks.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Biggest Mover of the Week, Gold
In today’s Morning Call Express, Jeff Cooper talks about the big move in gold this week. He highlights some of the key levels that he is focused on based on Gann methodology and the sqaure of 9 wheel.
Continue Reading -->Weekly Sentiment Report: Traders Are Pretty Darn Neutral
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side ever provides evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get an accurate reflection of the market’s mood. According to 6 sentiment measures I track, traders appear to be shockingly… neutral. Seriously, when I mash all the data together, I get a crowd that looks split right down the middle between bulls and bears. 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out of the money 6 month SPX options. There is currently a 9.6 point skew in implied volatilities on the options. That’s the 88th percentile. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 88% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 28.8% of individual investors are bullish, well below the long-term average of 38.5%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 27.9%,down huge from last week, and slightly lower than the 30.3% long-term average. 3) Wall Street Strategists – Neutral The average year-end target price for the S&P 500 is 2171, according to Bloomberg. That implies a 1% gain into year-end. 4) ISE Sentiment – Neutral The ISE Sentiment Index closed at 130 yesterday (130 calls for every 100 puts). This is a bullish reading And its 10 day moving average is just 94 — a level that typically indicates modest bearishness. So we’ll call it neutral. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.66 yesterday, which is just below the YTD average of 0.58. This points to slightly bullish sentiment. 6) Investors Intelligence – Bullish Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers showed a slight increase in bullishness to 46.7%. This is high relative to long-term averages. Bears fell to a 3-week low to 22.8%. ********* So we have 2 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators. Blend them together and you have a crowd that looks pretty darn neutral. I’m hearing a lot of bears say that everyone’s complacent… but who are they talking about?
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Jobs Report Ahead
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the action in the market ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. Scot talso looks at high beta tech names along with a couple sectors and one or two new issues.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Taper Talk
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler reviews the Gold Miners (GDX) as that is where the action was yesterday. He also takes a quick look at the SPX but not much has changed from day to day. Scott also looks at a couple individual names.
Continue Reading -->Panic Hits Gold, and It’s Not Pretty
Yesterday, I talked about the seemingly key $125-ish level on GLD. I wish I had the guts to get in short because this morning, GLD has slammed straight through $125 all the way to $121.86. The ever-volatile gold miners (GDX) and junior miners (GDXJ) are dropping -7.5% and -8.4%, respectively. This has a whiff of panic selling. Earlier today, the Fed’s Lacker and Mester swung their mighty hawk hammers, which has traders chattering about coming rate hikes. And of course, we have the big September NFP report on Friday, which comes on the heels of a decent rebound in US economic data. Interestingly, gold is gapping down towards its interim bottom on June 24. That of course was the date of the big Brexit surprise, featuring a monumental gap up in gold: Gold options are also very active today. GLD puts are trading at 7.4 times the normal volume for this time of day, according to Thinkorswim. However, there appears to be some dip buyers poking around GDX, since call options are actually quite active in that ETF. Precious metals have had a huge year. Even with today’s dip, GLD is still up 20.8% year-to-date and GDX is up 74.3%. So I guess it makes sense that traders are rushing to lock in profits — or get short — ahead of the big jobs report Friday. A huge beat could mean more downside, but either way, I think gold is officially the market’s funnest battleground.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Taxing Times
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler talks about yesterday’s action and, once again, reviews the SPX and some of the scenarios that he is looking for as we start the final quarter of the year. He also talks about some of the action in individual names like TSLA, NFLX, AAPL, and some new issue names.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Bad News Banks Beat Merger Mania!
Want to Learn to Trade With Our Experts? Check Out These 2 FREE Events: Start Prop Trading the Right Way How to Generate Big Income With Options 1) M&A Fever Today was a good day for Wall Street dealmakers as 2 sizeable deals were announced, with another Twitter (TWTR) takeover rumor serving as the icing on top. Privately-held outdoors retailer Bass Prop Shops is buying Cabela’s (CAB) for $5.5 billion. The combined company will have nearly 200 stores in the United States. Legendary bond investor Bill Gross also has a new employer, as his company Janus Capital (JNS) will be acquired by UK-based asset manager Henderson Group Plc. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Google (GOOGL) may be kicking the tires on Twitter (TWTR) regarding a possible link-up. In recent weeks, Twitter shares have skyrocketed on reports that it could be acquired by companies including Salesforce.com (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT), and even Disney (DIS). Twitter shares rose 4.0% to $23.97 today. 2) US Stocks Pull Back The S&P 500 pulled back -0.3% as the banking industry came under fire again. European banks fell today after Deutsche Bank (DB) failed to announced a smaller settlement with the Department of Justice, which handed the bank a $14 billion tab over its mortgage backed securities practices. Well Fargo (WFC) continued its downtrend on a pile of negative news, including a loss of business with the state of Illinois. Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton also attacked the bank in a speech in Toledo, Ohio. Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin accused a Morgan Stanley (MS) unit of “dishonest and unethical conduct” in in state dealings. The S&P Financial ETF (XLF) fell -0.5% today. Gold miners, utilities, and real estate stocks all fell on stronger-than-expected US economic data, which pushed up the dollar and interest rates. The Nasdaq slightly outperformed today as select names like Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) staged strong rallies. 3) Rule of 4 Sell Signal? This afternoon, my good friend Jeff Cooper once again keyed on the widely-watched 2148 level in the SPX. Here’s what he had to say: The Daily Swing Chart has turned right back down as the SPX trades below Friday’s low this morning. There is a 3 point rising trend line on the hourlies that now ties to around the key 2148 level. So if this is breached, it will trigger an hourly Rule of 4 sell from September’s pennant to kick off October, a potentially poor harbinger for the what is often a wicked month. Tuesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:05 Fed’s Lacker Speaks at West Virginia Economic Outlook Meeting 09:45 ISM New York (Sep): prior 47.5 19:50 Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Auckland, NZ Global Economics 03:00 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 04:30 GBP Construction PMI 20:30 AUD Retail Sales m/m Earnings Before Open: Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) After Close: None of significance
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