Morning Call Express: Post-Fed Hawks
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler breaks down the hawkish market vibes after the Fed.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express: Fed Day
In today’s Morning Call Express, T3 Live’s Scott Redler breaks down the action ahead of an eventful Fed Day. Interested in ordering Scott’s 2017 Market Outlook Report? Just click here. Or, you can call our team at 1-888-998-3548 or email us at info@t3live.com.
Continue Reading -->Ifan Wei Interview: From the Boxing Ring to the Trading Floor
To help you get to know T3 Live’s growing bench of trading talent, we’ve launched a series called “Meet the Traders” so you can get an inside look at how our team operates. Today, we are proud to introduce you to Ifan Wei, one of our moderators in the T3 Live Black Room. 1) Welcome Ifan! Tell us a little bit about yourself. I grew up in Texas. I attended the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, where I boxed for 4 years. Upon graduation, I began my career in marketing in big tech and the NFL. So even before I became a trader, I had the privilege of exciting, fulfilling, and challenging opportunities. Trading is a progression of that. 2) What’s Tougher? Trading or Boxing? Progress came more naturally in boxing, but both have their challenges, both physically and mentally. 3) Do you think your boxing background has helped you as a trader? Yes, absolutely. I think training for any competitive event makes you stronger mentally and emotionally. And competing in sports emphasizes a cycle of practice and preparation to be highly functional in a stressful, dynamic arena. That can help any trader. 4) How did you first get involved with the markets? My dad has always kept an eye on the markets, but not as a very active participant. So while I was aware of its existence and daily fluctuations, I was not introduced to price charts until an accounting class case presentation. Comparing company 10/K’s and curiosity about the impact on a company’s stock price led me to charts. So, there wasn’t a seminal moment that turned me into a trader. I just progressively became more interested in reading charts. 5) How would you describe your trading methodology? I use a top-down approach to technical analysis in order to anticipate momentum. I speculate on momentum based on two strategies: broken support/resistance and climactics (parabolic exhaustion). My most common strategy is when support or resistance is broken overnight, producing a gap in price at the open. To time my entrie, I use variations on 2 basic repeating patterns: bases and retracements. 6) What is your day-to-day focus these days? My #1 focus each day are stocks that gap. While most stocks gap each day, I am looking for the outliers. Inside the universe of the 2,000 most liquid equities, I focus on the extreme gainers and decliners. Typically, I am looking for a pattern/entry in the direction of the momentum. Other times, I am looking for signs of parabolic acceleration into exhaustion. If that sets up, I will begin to look to play against the trend. 7) What is the 1 thing you wish you knew when you started as a trader? The importance of patience. I did not know what kind of trader I was when I started. While I was fortunate enough to get an education at the beginning of my trading career, I lacked the self-awareness and understanding to internalize and apply it. 8) Do you believe in setting specific stop loss and target prices? Yes. A stop loss is there for me to know when I should admit I’m wrong. If the trade sets up again, then I can always re-enter. My targets come from the concept of support and resistance areas, and I trail my stops when those areas are reached. 9) Are you concerned about high-frequency and algorithmic grading? Yes, but my risk management acknowledges that anything can happen at anytime. I don’t make any specific adjustments in my trading to account for them. 10) What is 1 thing traders can do today to start getting better results? Track your trades. If you already track your trade entries and exit, be sure to journal your thoughts throughout the trading day. Log your observations. You will pass on trades that work, and pass on trades that don’t work. These decisions can be just as enlightening as the trades that you take. 11) What book should every beginning trader read? I’ve read and reread the commonly cited classics like Reminisces of a Stock Operator, Trading in the Zone, and The Zurich Axioms. They’re great. But I think anything that provides self-reflection and introspection can help you become a better trader, even if it’s not a trading-specific text. Psychology/philosophy books like Thinking, Fast and Slow and The Tao of Jeet Kune Do can be just as enlightening for a trader. 12) Are there any traders you look up to? I admire Sami Abusaad, Mark Harila, and Kurt Capra, my co-moderators in the Black Room, as well as my previous mentors. I try to keep in touch with a number of other professional traders. Consistency is a quality that they all share, and they are key to longevity in this business. They vary in style and approach but are consistent day-in and day-out in their method. 13) What would you be doing if you weren’t a trader? I’d probably still be in sports marketing. I have friends working for the big agencies and teams who still love what they do. Click here to learn more about the T3 Live Black Room
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express Video: Mixed Markets
In today’s Morning Call Express, Scott Redler breaks down the action after oil’s rally to nearly $54.
Continue Reading -->4 Real-World Investing Lessons You Need to Know
After 13+ years of looking at the market on a daily basis, and flushing a whole bunch of cash down the drain on idiotic trades, I’ve grasped a few realities about how money moves in the real world — far away from the textbooks and theory pushed at your average business school. Here are 4 of them 1. What You Know, Everyone Else Probably Knows, Too. Investors have a tendency to overestimate the uniqueness of their ideas, even though we’re all drinking from the same information cup. Furthermore, the presence of social media outlets like Twitter (TWTR and Facebook (FB) have drastically accelerated the speed at which investable information is distributed. That means that with few exceptions, everything gets priced into the market pronto. So if you’re thinking of buying bank stocks because The Fed’s about to raise rates, or shorting Apple (AAPL) because of slowing revenue growth, slow down and take a deep breath. It’s important to understand the past and present. But to be a successful investor, you’ll have to predict the future — a far bigger challenge than skimming through 10-Ks and listening to earnings calls. In other words, focus on examining not where the fundamentals and newsflow are, but where they may be going. Remember, when a guy on TV tells you a stock is good because it’s trading at X times earnings and has Y in cash on its balance sheet, he’s simply repeating the bare minimum of what the market knows. As men wiser than me have said, “What the market knows is not worth knowing.” 2. Timing Is Everything. When looking at the market,it’s important to understand not only “the what,” but “the why.” But the more I think about it, the more I’d argue that “the when” trumps both those considerations. Let me tell you a story. I once interviewed at a hedge fund that was making a major bet on its prediction that the then-growing housing bubble would implode. Smart money, right? However, that interview took place in early 2003, right before the Housing Index (^HGX) doubled. Likewise, a lot of folks were short FitBit (FIT) year as it crashed and burned from that $51.90 high hit last August. But a lot of bears got smashed on the 73% rally that precded the drop. So when you have an investment thesis in your mind, ask yourself, “What makes now the right time to bet on this?” Furthermore, if the S&P 500 is skyrocketing, it is entirely likely that junky companies rally big-time. Likewise, if the market’s in meltdown mode, even the best of the best can get smashed. Apple (AAPL) closed out 2007 at $198.08. But in 2008, even in the face of enormous earnings beats and the halo of the iPhone’s unprecedented success, Apple finished the year at $85.35 — a drop of 57%! You may be smart, but remember: Sometimes Mr. Market just does not care about what you think. 3. You Are Probably Suffering From Confirmation Bias. The Oxford Dictionaries defines confirmation bias as “the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories.” Translated into financial terms, it means that if you’re bullish on gold (GLD), you interpret everything you see as bullish for gold. I know the power of confirmation bias from a horrible experience with a former tech highflier called Rackable Systems, which changed its name to SGI (SGI) after it acquired Silicon Graphics in 2009. In 2006, Rackable Systems was a momentum King — kind of like newer names like Acacia (ACIA). It was pulling in boatloads of money selling energy-efficient servers to major data-center operators like Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon, and Yahoo (YHOO). And then — let me point out that I had complete knowledge of this — competitors like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) decided they wanted some of those data-center dollars. Maybe I should have imagined what would happen if Rackable lost Microsoft (34% of revenues) or Yahoo (26% of revenues) as a customer, or at the very least, the margin pressures that could be introduced in a more competitive server environment. However, I viewed the new competition as nothing less but confirmation that Rackable was on the right track. And then Rackable crashed from $56 to under $10 as earnings collapsed. It is impossible to stay perfectly objective when performing research. But you can stay one step ahead of your own bias by regularly asking the question, “Am I just telling myself what I want to hear?” 4. In Isolation, Valuation Ratios Are Useless. Investors often take a simplistic view of valuation ratios, automatically assuming that if something is “cheap,” it’s good, and if it’s “expensive,” it’s bad. But you’ll often see cheap stocks get cheaper and expensive stocks get more expensive. How many times has someone told you that Salesforce.com (CRM) is overpriced? Next, look at the stocks’ chart since it went public: A P/E ratio, like every other valuation ratio, is 100% meaningless in isolation. It is far more important to examine how the “E” part of the equation is changing. (Or sales for EV/S ratios or EBITDA for EV/EBITDA ratios, etc.) A company trading at five times earnings can look awfully expensive following a bad quarter that destroys future earnings expectations. That’s how a stock like GoPro (GPRO) can go from $98 to $50 to $9 in the blink of an eye. It also works the other way around — a high-priced momentum stock can suddenly look cheap if earnings come in ahead of expectations and forward estimates rise.
Continue Reading -->Jeff Cooper’s Morning Call Express: Financials Up
In today’s Morning Call Express video, T3 Live’s Jeff Cooper breaks down the action in SPX and the financials. Click here to see Jeff Cooper’s incredible track record.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express Video: Caution is Warranted
In today’s Morning Call Express video, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down why caution is warranted after 3 up days.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: 4 Life Lessons to Get You Through the Bad Times
One year ago today, I was laying on my belly, staring at the floor… and wondering if I’d ever walk again. But let’s rewind the story a bit. I’ve been a competitive racer since I was 30, finishing over 50 triathlons and marathons, including two Ironman events. I’ve also coached runners and raised money for the Steven M. Perez foundation, the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, the American Cancer Society, and the R. Baby Foundation. I keep all the mementos in my man cave: Steven Perez was my best friend since we were roommates at SUNY Albany. In 2007, he was diagnosed with Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia. Steven’s doctors did all they could to treat him, and our circle of family and friends pitched in to help. But after 6 weeks fighting the toughest battle on Earth, Steven passed away. I was horribly depressed, and only one thing seemed to help: exercise. So to raise money for The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society and the newly-formed Steven M. Perez Foundation, I completed my first Ironman triathlon. That’s when I really became a serious endurance athlete. I’d been racing for years, but finishing an Ironman was a whole new level for me. Unfortunately, my success came with a price. Years of serious training and racing took a big toll on my body. I had a lot of wear & tear, and I never really recovered from it. And throughout 2015, it was obvious that something was very wrong with me. My left leg was atrophying, and it would go numb if I stood for too long. My back was killing me. I had a hard time getting out of my chair, and I was barely sleeping. And I looked horrible. I was pale and losing weight, and I was shorter because of my shrinking leg. At Thanksgiving, a doctor friend was pumping me with injections just so I could stand up to cook! I spent 3 months in physical therapy, but deep down, I knew it was nothing more than a band-aid. I was wasting my time because I was afraid to face the music. But I couldn’t take any more of those scared looks from my wife and son. Even our dog Cadence knew something was wrong! So I finally came to my senses and just gave up. I visited Dr. Mitchell Reiter, a New Jersey-based orthopedic surgeon and spine specialist. Dr. Reiter diagnosed me with a sequestered spinal disc, which was putting tremendous pressure on my spinal canal. I was quickly scheduled for a Laminectomy operation to fix the problem. And that’s how I found myself laying on my belly, staring at the floor… and wondering if I’d ever walk again. Now, I’ll admit I was being a little melodramatic. Laminectomies have a pretty high success rate. And I trusted my doctor. But when times are tough, it’s hard to stop thinking about every little thing that can go wrong. The surgery was a success, and I began my recovery. It wasn’t easy. I could barely get up for days. My wife was carrying me around the house! And my friends moved the Christmas tree up to my bedroom so I could see it without going on a never-ending journey to the living room. I took 2 weeks off work. I never had that much time off before, and being away from my trading screens made me stir crazy. By the time I returned to work, I was 20 pounds lighter and my face was the color of skim milk. My own videographer didn’t recognize me, even though we’d been working together every day for over a year! But as much as my body changed, my mind changed even more. I began appreciating the little things. Forget the Ironman — suddenly, just getting through a stretching session was a big deal! Being pain free felt better than any medal I ever won! And I may never do another triathlon again. But you know what? I just ran alongside my son Chace as he finished his first 5K! He took home the gold, and I’ll never forget crossing the finish line with him. There are 4 simple, but valuable lessons to be learned here: 1) The Darkest Hour Is Just Before the Dawn Those last few moments before my surgery were some of the darkest I’ve ever been through. And you know what? That was the bottom. Things only got better. 2) Your Goals Should Change When Life Throws You Curveballs I used to think I’d be a high-level competitive racer forever. That may no longer be realistic, and I’m okay with that. I love coaching, and I’m more than happy to run smaller races until I get a better idea of my long-term prognosis. I don’t have to be “elite,” whatever that means. I just want to be the best I can be. 3) You Probably Have More Support Than You Think My family stepped up for me in ways you can’t imagine: That’s Celena, Chace, and our dog Cadence. I would not have made it back without all three of them! My parents were great too, always checking up on me to make sure I was doing okay. Aren’t they cool? And it feels silly now, but I was really worried subscribers would be ticked off while I was gone! But you were awesome — I received hundreds of supportive Tweets and emails, many of which included your personal stories of dealing with your own health problems. And not a single Redler All-Access subscriber cancelled due to my absence! That showed me that we are all part of a powerful global community. Here are some of our friends from Ukraine: (I’m in the front with the pink socks!) So just reach out when you need a hand. Odds are, people will there to help, and they’ll be happy to do so. 4) It’s Okay to Want to Give Up… Just Don’t We all go through rough times. Some have it worse than others, but we all have our own
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express
In today’s Morning Call Express video, T3 Live’s Scott Redler breaks down the broader market action on the 3rd day up since the Italian referendum.
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express Video: Digesting Gains
In today’s Morning Call Express Video, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down SPX , EWG, and USO, as well as individual names like AMZN and AAPL.
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