Happy New Year!

We have mixed/quiet markets around the world as we close out the year.

Europe is flattish and has a very tight pattern. It looks ready to rally. We've been long EWG calls in RAA since the Italian Referendum, and EWG/FEZ look like they'll give more gains.

In Asia, the landscape is a little different. The Nikkei had a big run and needs to digest. The Hang Seng has been choppy to the downside, though it was up 1.0%. The Shanghai was up +0.4%, but it needs time to show its hand.

SPX futures are up 4-5 handles. Yesterday, most sectors hit new weekly lows but rallied back a bit to close off the lows. We saw a few Red Dog Reversals as some sectors traded below Wednesday's lows and reclaimed them Thursday by day's end.

I'm not sure what today brings. The action may depend on whether we have any leftover rebalancing to work through.

At this point, there are multiple scenarios to consider for the New Year.

We've seen a little give on the post-Trump Trade, but not much. The USD came in a bit and Treasuries rallied. Some strong sectors tested the 21 day and held.

Do new funds come in the first five days and drive the indices to new highs fast?

Do traders book gains to push taxes out to 2018?

Do some January effect-type trades take place in beaten-down names and sectors?

We will have scenario A, B, and C.

Whatever you do today, don't let it ruin your holiday. Just focus on starting 2017 on the wrong foot. There will be more than enough time to figure out new relationships, correlations, etc. as the first few days develop.

For today, see if the upside gap holds or gets sold.

SPX has 2242 as pivot support for today and to start the year. If this holds, it would bring in new money to lift stocks in January. If they hit stocks fast in January, the important level will be the prior breakout area at 2193-2210. If they buy them fast, the first level to clear and hold above is 2262ish with the high of the range at 2277. A close above this and the door to 2325 opens for the first quarter.

SPY put a low in at $223.84 yesterday. That will be your pivot support for today and to start the year. If they hit them fast, this needs to get taken out with a close below the 21 day. Then perhaps it can see $220ish.

For today, see if SPY holds yesterday's high of $224.89. For the bulls to come out quick in January, they need a trade and hold above $226.30 as the first step. Then the high of the range is $228.34. A close above this in the first few days of the year and the door to $232.50 is open.

I will have a very extensive note to start the year on Tuesday morning as a lot can change between now and that open.

For today, keep it light and get ready for the holiday and get your head ready for 2017.

Remember, your time frame matters. Have a long-term plan with a 401k/403b/IRA/529 because over the long run, the bull market wins. But to participate, you must have a process that works for you. Never invest and live above your means.

If you swing trade and trade for a living that's different. It takes a routine, time, and commitment to a process.

Combine that with discipline and humility, and you can win.

Most importantly, live life and enjoy the time you have with your family and friends. A little fitness doesn't hurt either. Don't sweat the small stuff as it ends up being meaningless when you're faced with the big things.

Thanks for being a part of my community. Having friends like you on my team gave me a mission instead of a job.

Happy New Year!