One half of life is luck; the other half is discipline – and that’s the important half, for without discipline you wouldn’t knowwhat to do with your luck.-Carl Zuckmayer Welcome to the first edition of Red Dog Rules, an all-new trading and technical analysis video series by Scott Redler, Chief Strategic Officer of T3 Live. You’re going to learn how Scott attacks the market through real-world case studies and tutorials so you can take your trading to the next level. To Scott, trading is a marathon. It’s not a sprint. That’s why he takes a practical, rules-based approach to the market. Markets change, stocks change, and sectors change. But one thing remains the same — the importance of staying disciplined and grounded.In fact, the most successful traders focus on reducing risk above else. Why? Because one major mistake can knock you out of the game for good. In this edition, Scott gives you an in-depth look at one of the hottest stocks in the market, social media giant Facebook (FB): Watch this video and learn:Why the biggest risk you can take in the market is NOT participatingThe dangers of being lured in by the bears’ negative stories, like the claim that Facebook was set to lose 80% of its users by 2017The technical analysis signals that told Scott Facebook was ready to rockScott’s 3 favorite moving averages rulesHow the cup & handle pattern worksP.S. Don’t forget to sign up for Scott’s video on his favorite trading strategy — the Red Dog Reversal — below! Scott Redler Enter your text here…
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An historic contraction in volatility this year cooked up a whack-a-mole stew of selling volatility. Every time the market got hit, it was just another Sunday at Church for the Buy the Dip Congregation. Lately, it seems like it’s Sunday every day. The bounce back from last Wednesday’s air pocket set the land speed record for baptism by fire with the market jackknifing back into safety before you could say Lazarus. Never underestimate the scent of a ‘free lunch’ to lure the best and brightest financial engineers on Wall Street, the only place where the caboose always is in front of the engine. In other words, it’s always the derivatives, leverage, and tangential strategies that drive the money train. You don’t make the billions the banks and hedgies do with plain vanilla. When a political snowball from hell rolled onto The Street last week with the SPX hovering just below all-time highs and option expiration just days away, players who sold volatility were in jeopardy of choking on their own free lunch strategies. So in the best tradition of a bull in a China shop, it looks like players had no choice but to throw a Hail Mary into the fray and put on a Squeeze Play beginning last Thursday. What better way to do this then to let Wednesday’s selling run its course and close on its low before jacking this 18-wheeler back up out of the blue. Well it wasn’t completely out of the blue. Mr. Geometry lent a hand with the SPX closing directly 90 degrees off the key 2401 level last Wednesday. While a week ago, all hell broke loose and it looked like the SPX would finally test the key 2280-2300 level or worse, today, the hall of mirrors at 2400 is back in play… again. This must be the 7th attempt to covert 2400. I’ve lost count. The action certainly speaks to the idea that ‘There’s Something About 2400′ as we flagged before March. Some think the bulls have run out of money with a Big Seller sitting on 2400, or that there’s a lot of hedging going on there. Maybe, but underneath the surface, a handful of ‘Nifty Fifty’ names have been ripping higher. These include our old friends AAOI, SHOP, LITE, TTD, PFPT, WDAY and IRBT as well as the runaway Chinese Brigade, WB, SINA and SOHU. If I owned a major fund, this would be my strategy: I’d keep the indices flat below a ceiling of say 2400 and buy my belly full of stocks, keeping the crowd in suspense and competition at bay as they sold each time the index kissed 2400, only to be rejected. Then I’d add to my longs on each pullback. Once and only once I was ready, I’d let the SPX vault 2400 and start feeding the ducks, distributing positions into the quacking now that the ‘coast was clear’. I’m just sayin’: if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck… The bulls would love nothing more than to get a close meaningfully above 2400 going into the long weekend. With names like X creeping higher as flagged yesterday and IBM catching a bid this morning, and with energy names getting a lift from $50+ oil, the junkyard dogs may create enough of a tail wind to chase the SPX over 2400 into early June, where a possible time/price square-out is on the table. However, I’m not so sure a breakout is an all clear: if the SPX satisfies our long outstanding target over the next few weeks, the bite of the bear may ultimately prove worse than the bark of the bulls.
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Just when everyday seemed to greet me with a smile Sunspots have faded and now I’m doing time Now I’m doing time ‘Cause I fell on black days -Chris Cornell (R.I.P.) Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. But let’s look at the actual numbers to see how the crowd actually feels. Last week, traders swung to a moderately bullish stance. But yesterday, as the Trump/Comey controversy heated up, the SPX dove -1.8% — the biggest one-day decline since September 9, 2016. That’s a span of 172 trading days! So let’s take a fresh look at sentiment and figure out whether the bears are still growling. (click here for a primer on these 5 sentiment indicators) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish This morning, the VIX is at 15.89, putting up 66% from the 9.56 generational low on May 9. The curve is nearly inverted and the 3-month spread is at just +0.1, which means that traders are very fearful. 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 45, down from 63 last week. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 45 is neutral. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that just 23.9% of individual investors are bearish, down from 32.7% last week. This 23.9% reading is well below the 38.5% long-term average, and is the lowest level since November 3, 2016 — the week before the Presidental election. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.73 yesterday with a 3-day moving average of 0.62. That 0.73 number above historical norms, but this number was also very, very low from Friday to Tuesday, so we’ll call it Neutral. 5) ISE Sentiment – Neutral The ISE Sentiment Index closed at 88 yesterday (88 calls bought for every 100 puts). The 10 day moving average is 94.2. These numbers show higher put demand, but they’re actually in-line with recent averages, so I’ll also lump it in as neutral. Conclusion Out of 5 sentiment indicators, we have: 0 bullish (down from 2 last week) 3 neutral (up from 2 last week 2 bearish (up from 1 last week The question everyone’s asking is obvious: is there enough fear in the market? Now, sentiment is undoubtedly more bearish this week, perhaps best illustrated by the spiking VIX and its nearly inverted curve. However, I’m not sure sentiment is bearish enough to immediately form a bottom. The CBOE equity put-call ratio did spike to 0.73. That’s a mark of fear — but it’s not an extreme level. It actually hit 0.96 in mid-April. I’d love to see a spike above 0.90, and a dip in the ISE Sentiment Index as well. That would mean traders are aggressively buying put options for downside protection/speculation purposes, which is what you see at the point of maximum fear. In hindsight, that 9.56 extreme low in the VIX may have been a sign of true froth. At the time, other sentiment indicators were pointing bearish, but at that point, traders were pricing in almost no volatility, and thus no fear. Now we’re about to see if the volatility train is ready to leave the station after 6 months of nothing.
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Trading is like anything else worth doing. If you want to be good, you’ve got to develop discipline, patience, and mental toughness. Now, you can learn plenty about trading by watching screens and reading books… but sometimes, the very best lessons come on mile 25 of a marathon… or when a 200-pound boar is charging you at full speed. So we sat down with several of our trading experts to talk about the lessons they’ve learned far way from their charts and spreadsheets. Here are their stories. Brandon Perry on Hunting Wild Boars Here in Texas, we love the taste of wild boars. But wild boars love the taste of crops, grazing fields, wildlife, and private property. Smithsonian magazine said they’re “among the most destructive invasive species in the United States today,” doing $400 million worth of damage in Texas annually. I have a rancher friend who invites me to help take care of his problem with wild boars. We start with weather patterns. If it’s rainy, the boars spread out and won’t be concentrated around a water source. In the winter, food gets scarce and they move away from acorn-rich oak trees to lowland valleys with rich sources of grass and grubs. In the summer, they stay out of the brutal Texas heat during the day. That’s my macro analysis. Next, I have to drill down to analyze my specific target. Boars are probably the most dangerous wild land animal in Texas. They have razor sharp tusks and they’re not afraid to take on humans. One time on a hunt, we came across a 200+ pound boar. We’re talking a big ugly beast right out of a horror movie. We saw it and it saw us. Usually they run away. This boar didn’t. He turned toward us and started sauntering toward us. We had a choice. We could run or shoot. My friend took a shot with his AK-47. Now you may think having an AK-47 made this an unfair fight. But boars are very, very tough, with with inch-thick skin and a cranial bone that can deflect bullets. The first shot only made it turn. The second took it down. In hunting, there are a few very important rules to follow. Only take a sure shot Don’t be afraid to pass on a shot Don’t rush your shot. These rules also apply to trading. For example, I love trading washout lows, but it’s not easy. I have to make sure the technicals are right. And when I have my target picked out, I can’t rush in. I need to wait until the odds are in my favor. If things go wrong, I need enough room to exit the situation to minimize risk… whether I’m looking at a charging stock or a charging boar. When trading lows, you have a brief moment for action, and then the opportunity is gone. But in trading, like hunting, opportunities always come around again. So don’t rush to pick a shot. You’ll get another. Brandon is a contributor to the Virtual Trading Floor®. Click here for a 14-Day FREE Trial. Scott Redler on Triathlons If you want a better brain, build a better body. One of the biggest factors in my trading success has been competing in 100+ triathlons and marathons, including 2 Ironman events. When I started doing triathlons, my trading profits went through the roof for 2 reasons. First, I suddenly had fewer hours in the day. That may seem a little counter intuitive, but hear me out. To balance my trading career and family time with triathlon training, I was forced to become more focused. I started getting up earlier, partying less, and most importantly, I learned the power of a routine. Instead of flying by the seat of my pants, I started every trading day with a comprehensive plan. That’s why I’m so adamant about daily game planning. If you don’t have a plan, you end up wasting all your time and energy trying to figure out what to do! When you start your day with a plan, you can keep your eyes on the prize and not waste your time with distractions. And the second reason endurance training is valuable is that it builds mental toughness. You learn that you’re capable of a lot more than you think. When you start out running, running a mile or two may seem impossible. And then you read about Fauja Singh, a man who ran his first marathon at 89! So find an outlet that pushes you physically. It could be an Ironman. Or it could be a walk around the neighborhood, a martial art, or pushups in the office at lunch. Just do something. Click here to learn about Redler Ultimate Access, Scott’s new trader training program. Mark Harila on Racquetball I’ m a trader and a racquetball player. After a day sitting in the office staring at charts, I love the physicality of racquetball. Getting your heart rate up and losing yourself in the game is a great way to let the tensions of our profession go by the wayside. The comradery I have with other players and random little moments of levity really bring me back down to Earth. There are many parallels between racquetball and trading. There’s often a furious pace of play that requires instant analysis. On the court, you must assess: Where the ball is now Where it is likely to go Where the other players are Where to set yourself up in order to best take advantage of the situation In trading, you must assess: Where the price action is now Where it is likely to go Where support and resistance (other players) are Where to find your entries to take advantage of the price action Novice racquetball players are desperate to hit the ball to score points. So they’ll chase after the ball once it has passed them, rather than running to a spot that will give them an opportunity. They take wild shots, swinging and missing repeatedly, because they don’t plan, and don’t know
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Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. But let’s look at the actual numbers to see how the crowd actually feels. Last week, sentiment was very bearish, and I said “I think SPX makes new all-time highs above 2401 by Monday at 9:45 a.m. ET.” And indeed, in the aftermath of Emmanual Macron’s victory in France, the SPX did indeed squeeze to a new record high at 2401.36 at 9:35 a.m. ET. That was followed by another all-time high on Tuesday at 2403.87 before the market fell back into the range. So let’s take a fresh look at sentiment and figure out whether the bears are still growling. (click here for a primer on these 5 sentiment indicators) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish The VIX is at 10.70 this morning after hitting new 10-year lows earlier in the week. The 3-month spread is at 3.7, which means that traders are moderately bullish. 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 63. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 63 means traders are moderatly bullish. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 32.7% of individual investors are bullish, down from 38.1% last week. This is below the long-term average of 38.5%. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.65 yesterday with a 3-day moving average of 0.63. This indicates that traders are neutral. 5) ISE Sentiment – Neutral The ISE Sentiment Index is at 97 as of late morning (97 calls bought for every 100 puts). The 10 day moving average is 87.6. So the recent trend shows higher put option demand. However, I’ll consider this number neutral because it’s actually risen a bit in the past couple of weeks. Conclusion Out of 5 sentiment indicators, we have: 2 Bullish (up from 1 last week) 2 Neutral (unchanged from last week 1 Bearish (down from 2 last week Traders looked pretty negative last week ahead of the April jobs numbers and the French election results, but they’ve swung to moderately bullish this week. Looking forward, we’ll probably need a meaningful surge above the new 2403.87 record high to push the market into full-on froth category. But to be fair, for 2 reasons, it could be argued that froth already set in: 1) The VIX hit 9.56 earlier this week the lowest level since February 2007 2) There’s just no volatility because the shallowest of dips keep getting bought But let’s play it by ear. Low-volatility stretches can go on for a long time before anything changes.
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On Monday, I provided an in-depth analysis of the post-election collapse in volatility, just as the VIX was hitting levels not seen since February 2007. In that piece, I focused on day-to-day volatility of the S&P 500. Now, I’m going to take a look at intraday volatility. I used a very simple but effective formula to make my judgements. I took the day’s range (the high minus the low) and divided it by the prior day’s close Since 1950, the S&P has had an average intraday range of 1.2%. Since 2000, the average intraday range has been 1.4%. In 2016, that number was 1.0%… up until the election. And after the election, it dropped to just 0.6%. So just as day-to-day volatility dropped, intraday volatility has dropped just as much. Now here’s where things get really interesting… We’ve had 125 trading days since the election, with an average intraday range of 0.584% — half the long-term 1.2% average. (as of 1:00 p.m. ET) The last time we’ve had a 125-day stretch with so little intraday movement was March 19, 1962! If you’re falling asleep… you have good reason. And oh yeah — the S&P had a rough time after March 19, 1962. It closed at 70.85 that day, and fell to 52.83 on June 27. The market’s dip in 1962 was deemed “The Kennedy Slide.” Heck, there was even a Flash Crash on May 28, 1962, with the Dow falling 5.7%. Could we see a similar Trump slide? I guess it’s possible, mostly because it’s not uncommon for a bear market to be proceeded by a low volatility stretch. To balance that, I’ll issue my usual caveat: a sample size of 1 means absolutely NOTHING, and I do this kind of research mostly for entertainment purposes. And to be even more clear: I’m not rushing to get short the market in anticipation of a big drop. But for fun, let’s look at some historic parallels. The JFK Library said this about President Kennedy: John Fitzgerald Kennedy captured the Democratic nomination despite his youth, a seeming lack of experience in foreign affairs, and his Catholic faith. And in 2016, Donald Trump completely smashed the Republican establishment despite having zero political experience. Sheer charisma played a big role in each man’s victory. And in both elections, the market rallied after the result. What about geopolitical tensions? Kennedy had the Bay of Pigs Invasion in 1961 followed by the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. In 2017, we’ve got Russia, Syria, ISIS, etc. That’s quite a few coincidences to content with…
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With the VIX hitting 9.69 today — a level not seen since February 2007 — I wanted to get an idea of just how slow the market is moving. To do so, I analyzed daily S&P 500 price data going back to 1950. Since November 9, 2016, the first trading day after President Trump’s victory, the S&P has moved an average of 0.3%* per day. (*percentages expressed in this article represent the daily percentage change expressed on an absolute basis. So if the market moves -1% on Monday and +1% on Tuesday, the average move is 1%) But going back to 1950, the daily average move is 0.7%! And here’s another funny stat. The average daily move in 2016 BEFORE Trump’s victory was 0.6% — pretty close to that long-term 0.7% average. So my 6th grade math proves that volatility collapsed after the election, even though we’ve had no shortage of market-moving news, between the Fed, French elections, Syria, North Korea, Trump/legislation, etc. Now let’s look at 1% daily moves. We’ve had 122 trading days since the election. And the S&P has moved 1% or more exactly 5 times. That’s 1 out of every 24.4 days. In 2016, before the election, the S&P was moving 1% once every 4.7 days. Long term, the S&P had 1% moves every 4.9 days. So we used to have a big move once a week. Now we’re getting them once a month… if we’re lucky. But what’s really interesting is that we also saw an extended period of low volatility prior to the last bull market peak on October 11, 2007 — though it wasn’t as quiet as this one. From January 1, 2007 to October 11, 2007, the market moved an average of 0.5% per day. 2006, a remarkably sedate year, also had an average daily move of 0.5%. So are we seeing parallels between 2007 and 2017? Maybe. Just remember this: if you’re drawing parallels between 2007 and 2017, you’re talking about a sample size of exactly 1. That’s not exactly scientific. So who’s to blame for the lack of volatility? ETF’s? Runaway algos and high frequency trading programs? Trump himself? Newly confident CEO’s that love slamming the buyback button? The Alphabet Soup Gang? (the Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE, etc.) All of them? If you have the answer, let me know when I wake up…
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Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. But let’s look at the actual numbers to see how the crowd actually feels. Last week, the overall mood of traders shifted to neutral from the prior week’s extreme bearishness. With the healthcare vote, earnings from AAPL/AMZN/FB/TSLA, and the April nonfarm payrolls report out of the way, let’s see how traders are feeling ahead of this weekend’s French election. (click here for a primer on these 5 sentiment indicators) 1) VIX Spread: Bullish The VIX dropped under 10 this morning, and the 3-month spread is at +3.98. This means that traders are fairly bullish. 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral The Fear & Greed Index is at 45, down from 48 last week. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 45 means traders are neutral. 3) AAII Sentiment: Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 38.1% of individual investors are bullish,basically unchanged from last week. This is right in-line with the long-term average of 38.5%. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call: Bearish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.77 yesterday with a 3-day moving average of 0.69. This indicates that traders are bearish. 5) ISE Sentiment: Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index is at 65 as of the Thursday close (65 calls bought for every 100 puts). The 10 day moving average is just 88.2. So the recent trend shows higher put option demand. The big drop ahead of Friday’s NFP report has me slotting this number in at bearish. Conclusion Out of 5 sentiment indicators, we have: 1 bullish 2 neutral 2 bearish So traders have gotten more negative since last week, when we had 1 bullish, 4 neutral, and 0 bearish sentiment indicators. Last week, I wondered whether sentiment was about to go full-on bullish, but we saw precisely the opposite occur. Traders actually got more bearish, which is vert encouraging for the bulls. Judging by yesterday’s surge in put option demand (as indicated by the CBOE equity put-call ratio and the ISE Sentiment Index), traders were hedging aggressively for today’s NFP report and this weekend’s French election. This means there’s a lot of bearish bets that will need to be unwound in a jiffy if we get a Macron victory in France. I don’t think Marine Le Pen can be counted out until the final vote is tallied, but it certainly looks like Macron is in the driver’s seat. Call me crazy, but I think SPX makes new all-time highs above 2401 by Monday at 9:45 a.m. ET. (not that 8 points is a meaningful move in the grand scheme of things…)
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If you want to be an expert swing trader, then you have to understand the Foundation of stock movement, broken down into 4 clear stages: Ambivalence Greed Indecision Fear In our latest swing trading tutorial (scroll down to see it), T3 Live’s Director of Education Sami Abusaad breaks down each of these 4 stages so you can understand The Foundation — or the entire life cycle — of price movement. Most traders are not even aware these stages exist. But once you understand how they work, you’ll start viewing the market action through a clear new prism. You’ll see how greed and fear show their hands through price and trend action. So watch this video today and learn: Which market stage offer the highest reward relative to risk How to pick the best stocks for swing trading The single most important trading picture you may ever see Why Sami doesn’t try to buy at the exact bottom and sell at the exact top The right time to start putting on buy setups What to do when a stock goes climactic to the upside What to do when a stock goes climactic to the downside The danger of the “Fear of Missing Out” Why you can’t wait to be 100% sure to get in The type of behavior that leads to climactic tops
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There are a million courses and instructional videos on chart reading, economics, fundamentals, and quantitative analysis. Most traders come up through the ranks by taking information from various sources and mixing it together to create an individual path. You don’t need to be original or overly creative to be a great trader. You must simply be able to curate strategies that work for your personality and trading style. But the ugly truth is that a lot of trades desperately need a wake-up call. Sometimes, we think we’re putting things together in a very rational and controlled fashion, but we’re still not getting the result we should. That’s often a failure of mindset rather than of intelligence or natural trading acumen. So we put together a list of 9 clear signs that you need a trading intervention. If you suffer from 1 or more of these symptoms, then it’s time for a gut check! 1) You Suffer from Brain Freeze (and we don’t mean the ice cream kind) You do your best to learn a strategy or methodology, but when it comes time to implement it, you freeze up and do nothing. Quite often, traders are more comfortable with the idea of risk than risk itself. When traders find themselves freezing up, it often makes sense to dramatically cut position sizes to get acclimated to executing real trades. 2) You Make Conscious Errors You realize that you are doing something that does not fit into a logical strategy, and yet you do it anyway. This is a bizarre mix of anxiety and arrogance, as it’s based on two illogical beliefs: that doing something is always better than doing nothing, and that things will miraculously work out in your favor. Both are wrong on all counts. 3) You Are Underconfident You exit winning trades too early, stunting the potential of your winners. As unusual as it seems, traders often have difficulty letting winners run. Many traders want the security of having locked in a gain, which means they miss the bulk of a move. The best traders look for clear signs of exhaustion in trends before exiting winners, because trends often last longer than may seem logical. 4) You Have Too Much Patience You exit trades too late, allowing your winners to turn to losers, and losers to turn into bigger losers. This comes back to the belief that things will somehow just work out. Many traders have a problem with wanting more! more! more! out of a winning trade, even after it’s showing signs of of change in trend. So they’ll let emotion take over, and they’ll watch a position decline in the hope that it will magically turn around and restore prior gains. Traders also sometimes have a hard time dealing with losses, so they’ll sit and wait for them to turn around, even when they have no rational reason for doing so. 5) Not Enough Patience You chase trades aggressively, giving yourself bad entries, which eventually causes you to get stopped out. The fear of missing out is pervasive among traders. We see a stock go up $10 and we start to wonder if it’s going up another $5. A smart trader accepts that sometimes, trades just pass you buy. You’re never going to catch them all, and trying to do so means acting out of emotion instead of logic and analysis. 6) You Don’t Take Responsibility for Your Results You blame others for your problems trading problems instead of taking responsibility. We can’t control anything in the markets beyond our own strategies and risk management techniques. But since we all consenting adults engaging in an uncertain business, we must accept responsibility for our own results. We’ve all stepped into this arena by choice. So we must own the consequences — both good and bad. 7) Your Stop Get Hit Constantly You are dying of a thousand paper cuts, getting stopped out constantly, which adds up to huge losses. Many traders set extremely tight stops, which is death in today’s volatile, algorithm-driven markets. There is a misplaced belief that hard stops ensure limited losses, but that’s not always the case. A stop strategy must be adapted to current market conditions, and if you are getting consistently stopped out, you must reassess your thresholds. Quite often, traders that suffer from an overload of stop losses find that they’d actually have profited if they’d held on a little bit longer, or set their stops a little looser. 8) You’ve Forgotten That Trading Is Work It’s easy to view trading as an unstructured entrepreneurial adventure rather than a job. It takes a big streak of independence to become a trader. But beware of too much of a good thing. Traders often find themselves living an unhealthy lifestyle, including bad sleep habits, heavy hunk food intake, and zero exercise. If you want a healthy trading mind, you must take care of our body of first so you can show up ready to work effectively every day, just like any other job. When you’re tired, unfocused, and unprepared, you are throwing money away. 9) You Are Not Compartmentalizing We all have life problems. But when we trade, they must be put away to be dealt with later. You must be focused on the task at hand. You can’t be thinking about the fight you had with your spouse the night before or how you’re going to make the next mortgage payment. So when it’s time to trade, stay focused on the task at hand.
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