Newsflash: This Stock Market Is Not Loved
Permabulls always say everyone’s bearish. And permabears always say everyone’s bullish. Neither side likes to provide evidence for their views. So I regularly run through a wide variety of sentiment measures to get a realistic reflection of the market’s mood. According to 7 sentiment measures I track, traders are slightly bearish, even though we’re within 1% of the all-time SPX high. Let’s go through them one by one: 1) SPX Options Prices – Bearish SPX options prices show a high put skew. I looked at 10% out-of-the money 6-month SPX options. There is currently a 10 point skew on the puts, which is the 98th percentile for the past 5 years. So relative to calls, traders are paying more for 10% OTM 6 month puts than they have 98% of the time over the past 5 years. 2) ISE Sentiment – Bearish The ISE Sentiment Index closed at just 63 yesterday (63 puts for every 100 calls). And its 10-day moving average is just 81.1 — a level that indicates bearishness. Markets tend to overheat with 10-day MA readings well over 100, so we’re not even close to that. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 24.8% of individual investors are bullish. This is well below the long-term average of 38.4%, and below the 2016 YTD average of 28.1%. Bearish sentiment is at 38.3%, the highest it’s been since the February 11 bottom, when it spiked to 48.7%. 4) Investors Intelligence – Neutral Yesterday, the Investors Intelligence Survey of newsletter writers showed the 4th straight decline in bullishness with a drop to 44.6% bullish from 49% last week. Bears are at a 10-week high at 24.3%. 5) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was 0.63 yesterday, which is above the YTD average of 0.5, and right in-line with the 5-year average of 0.65. This points to neutral sentiment. 6) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bullish The Fear & Greed Index is at 61, which is modestly in the ‘Greed’ category. F&G operates on a 1-100 scale, and 50 is neutral) 7) Wall Street Strategists – Bullish The average year-end 2017 target price for the S&P 500 is 2391.44, according to Bloomberg. This implies a 9.7% gain from here — basically in-line with historic stock market averages. ********* So we have 3 bearish indicators, 2 neutral indicators, and 2 bullish indicators. Blend them together and you have a slightly bearish crowd. I’m hearing a lot of bears saying that everyone’s complacent… but I just don’t see it. P.S. Interested in prop trading? Sign up for today’s FREE webinar and find out if a prop career makes sense for you.
Continue Reading -->Morning Call Express: Stocks Set to Rise
In today’s Morning Call Express video, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down the action post-Fed, and explains what to look for today. P.S. Interested in prop trading? Sign up for today’s FREE webinar and find out if a prop career makes sense for you.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Hawks and Doves Collide on Fed Day
WEBINAR: Prop Trading May Not Be Right For You… But it has incredible financial benefits for many, many traders and could make a difference in your bottom line. Click here to learn more… 1) Bank of Japan Starts a Party The Japanese Nikkei and Topix indices had a great night after the Bank of Japan made its monetary policy announcement. The Bank did not go deeper into negative rates as had been rumored, but will instead focus on controlling rates and steepening the yield curve. A steeper yield curve means bigger profits for financial institutions, so Japanese banks and insurers staged huge rallies. The yen also rallied against major currencies. Many investors have been concerned about the impact of negative rates, so the new strategy was received favorably. The positive action in Japan flowed through to Europe, which also had a big stock rally with notable strength in financials. 2) The Fed! As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged. But what was really interesting was that they gave ammunition to both hawks and doves. 3 Fed officials dissented from the decision, voting to raise rates. The Fed also said that the rate hike case strengthened, which all but seals the deal for a December rate hike. That certainly seems in-line with all the hawkish commentary we’ve been hearing from Fed officials. However, the Fed now expects 2 rate increases in 2017, down from 3 in June. The Fed also cuts its GDP and interest rate forecasts, and said that inflation is still below its goals. So the overall picture is actually pretty mixed – and I’d argue that today may have been a victory for the doves. 3) The Market Reaction For the third day in a row, the S&P 500 hit an early morning high before ticking lower. However, the Fed statement ignited a very solid stock rally into the close, with the S&P rising 1.1% to 2162.87. The Russell 2000 powered up 1.4% to 1245.02. And since the Fed wasn’t as hawkish as many traders expected, we saw rallies in bonds and commodities after the announcement hit. Meanwhile, the dollar fell sharply on Japan’s lack of action and the Fed’s mixed statement. WTI Crude oil rose 3.5% after the American Petroleum Institute and Energy Information Administration reported large drops in US crude inventories. That had energy stocks in the winners’ column. But the biggest hot mover today was the junior gold miners ETF (GDXJ), which rose a whopping 8.0% on the post-Fed pop in gold. Thursday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Aug): exp. 0.15, prior 0.27 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims (9/17): exp. 261k, prior 260k 08:30 Continuing Claims (9/10): exp. 2141k, prior 2143k 09:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM (Jul): exp. 0.30%, prior 0.20% 09:45 Bloomberg Economic Expectations (Sep): prior 44.5 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (9/18): prior 42.2 10:00 Existing Home Sales (Aug): exp. 5.45m, prior 5.39m 10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug): exp. 1.10%, prior -3.20% 10:00 Leading Index (Aug): exp. 0.00%, prior 0.40% 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (9/16): exp. 54, prior 62 10:30 EIA Working Natural Gas Implied Flow (9/16): exp. 54, prior 62 11:00 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (Sep): exp. -3, prior -4 13:00 Fed’s Lockhart Gives Introductory Remarks on Labor Market Global Economics 09:00 EUR ECB Pres. Draghi Speaks 13:00 GBP BOE Gov. Carney Speaks Earnings Before Open: Autozone (AZO) Rite Aid Corp (RAD) After Close: None of Significance
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Japan Gets Us All Warmed Up for the Fed
The Japanese Nikkei and Topix indices had a great night after the Bank of Japan made its monetary policy announcement. The Bank did not go deeper into negative rates as had been rumored, but will instead focus on controlling rates and steepening the yield curve. A steeper yield curve means bigger profits for financial institutions, so Japanese banks and insurers are ripping. The yen is also rallying against major currencies. The Bank said it will focus on buying ETF’s that track the Topix rather than the Nikkei, which some traders expected. Europe also woke up on the BoJ news, with a huge rally in financials. The positivity is extending to the US, with SPX futures in positive territory. Today could be a big day for us with the Fed rate decision (2:00 p.m.) and press conference (2:30 p.m.). You can read my thoughts on the Fed here. Markets appear to be braced for no rate change and a hawkish statement. The anarchist in me actually hopes Barclays and BNP Paribas are correct in predicting the Fed will raise rates today, just to shake things up a bit and give us some more of the volatility we saw last week. The permabear in me thinks there’s a good chance the Fed doesn’t hike and actually backs down its hawkish chatter a bit. But I’m not going to roll the dice. I’m going to sit tight and wait for the dust to settle before committing to a view. We have crude oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET. The American Petroleum reported a large -7.5 million drop in US inventories overnight. Keep in mind that oil sold off hard after the past 2 weekly inventory reports, even though both were very bullish. It looks like traders are selling the rips ahead of the big OPEC meeting in Algiers. JP Morgan increased its Apple (AAPL) iPhone production estimates based on channel checks. That’s helping Apple a little bit. Credit Suisse is out saying European bank are cheap based on dividend yields and relative valuation. Fed day is obviously an anything goes day — especially with the BoJ in the mix — but I’d keep watching the usual suspects like the Russell 2000 and biotech (IBB). Biotech has been a big upside outlier the past couple days on a very positive news flow (drug approvals, takeovers), and it’s hard to break this market when biotech is doing well.
Continue Reading -->5 Keys to Understanding Tomorrow’s Big Fed Day
1) The Hawk Setup Traders are now pricing in a 22% probability of a rate hike tomorrow and a 58% probability for December. For the past month-and-a-half, Fed heads including FOMC Chair Yellen have been spinning a hawkish tale, seemingly to get markets prepared for a rate hike. Now, I have to wonder: if the Fed’s selling rate hikes so hard, why isn’t the market really buying in yet? 2) Is It the Economy? Clearly, US economic data strength has been deteriorating since late July, as you can see in this chart of the Citi US Economic Surprise Index: We’ve seen misses on GDP, NFP, ISM Services, Personal Income, PCE Deflator, Retail Sales, PPI, etc., though last week’s CPI beat was a nice win. The Fed always makes clear that it doesn’t obsess over any one data point, but I wonder if the trend is weak enough to warrant attention. The alternate explanation for people not really buying into rate hikes just yet is probably because of the Fed’s history of misdirection. No one wants to get caught playing the sucker. 3) How Are Traders Feeling? Sentiment is mixed headed into tomorrow. The ISE Sentiment Index is at just 55 this morning — indicating heavy put options demand. CBOE equity put-call is at 1.25 — again, indicating heavy put demand. So it does appear that equity traders are hedging and/or betting on more downside. This is GREAT news for the bulls — the worst setup would be heavy call options demand ahead of an event with so many moving parts. Remember… 4) Rate Hikes Are Not the Sole Point The market reaction won’t solely be determined by the rate decision. What’s really important is signaling of how many rate hikes there will be, and over what time frame. Odds are the Fed will be somewhat vague, but I’m sure there will be some juicy nuggets scattered about — most likely in the form of language removals/additions. But the most important thing is this… 5) Don’t Make a Rush to Judgement Markets do bizarre things on Fed days. And the media is always in a rush to explain it all, which makes no sense because between 2:00 and 4:00 p.m. ET, you can see 3+ different major moves, at least 1 of them based on algos trading within milliseconds of the statement hitting the tape. The market will tell us what matters… but not until 3:30 p.m. at least.
Continue Reading -->Sami Abusaad Interview: Getting to Know a Top Trader
To help you get to know T3 Live’s growing bench of trading talent, we’ve launched a series called “Meet the Traders” so you can get an inside look at how our team operates. Today, we are proud to introduce you to Sami Abusaad, T3 Live’s Director of Education, and creator of our Strategic Swing Trader and Strategic Day Trader programs. 1) How did you first get involved with the markets? In 2005, I had $20,000 saved from an accounting job and I didn’t know what to do with it. I then found out that the second richest man in the world made all of his money from investing. That man was Warren Buffett, and I immediately became fascinated by the markets. I also read about a 21 year old kid from New York who made $1 million in less than a year. That provided a sense of hope to me. I thought “if he can do it, I can do it too!” I opened a brokerage account and funded it with $16,000. In six months, I made about $10,000. In a year, I was at $50,000. I did this by playing swing longs in a bullish market. My brother was as amazed by my results as I was, and he gave me the following words of wisdom: “If you can make that kind of money through “Buy and Hold”, imagine how much you could make trading actively!” He was referring to stocks on the“Highest Gainers/Losers” list for the day. I listened to his advice. I started trading actively every morning. Within a few months, I lost all my profits… and another $15,000. That’s when I realized that I didn’t know quite as much as I thought I did. A few months later, while scouring the Internet for trading resources, I came across Zacks.com, a financial website similar to Yahoo! Finance. Zacks.com was running a one-year trading challenge and the winner of that contest would receive a $100,000 job offer. I participated in that contest, and guess what? No, I didn’t win. But I did receive something better than winning the challenge — I became friends with the winner: he had turned $100,000 into $2 million in less than a year. He told me he had been a full time professional trader for 15 years – and that he learned it all from a small company called Pristine. He encouraged me to read their book Tools and Tactics for the Master Day Trader. Not only did I read it immediately, I registered for all of the free workshops available at the time and then went on to take Trading the Pristine Method (TPM) and Advanced Technical Strategies (ATS), which was known as TPM II. The rest, as they say, is history. (Editor’s Note: T3 Live acquired Pristine in 2014) 2) So what are you doing now? I am an active day and swing trader, averaging seven trades per day. I focus on stocks in my trading, but my trading style can be applied to all markets, including futures, commodities, options, forex, and more I am also an educator for T3 Live and serve as Lead Moderator for the T3 Live Strategic Day Trader room. As much as I enjoy trading, I think teaching is my calling. I run several education programs, including our Earnings Engine course. And in 2017, we launched a new swing trade coaching program called Strategic Swing Trader. 3) Do you use a specific trading methodology? Yes, I trade primarily 3 proprietary strategies in day trading. Gaps: I focus on professional gaps that break long-term trends and ignite new trends. Climactics: Stocks that experience a parabolic price acceleration to the point of exhaustion. 15-Minute Chart Plays: These are afternoon plays that trigger off the rising or declining 20 ma on the 15 min chart. It could be a pullback-type entry or a breakout/breakdown. In Strategic Swing Trader, I primarily focus on catching stocks during their bottoming/topping period, or later while they are transitioning. I use various patterns and advanced tactics to enter into those plays, and I try to catch them early on. Trading earnings is also very important to me. 4) How do you unwind from the ups and downs of trading? I like to take evening walks and play sports, including basketball and soccer. 5) Do you believe in setting stop losses? Yes, absolutely. But often, traders wrongly think of a stop as an exact point on a chart. I use an area, rather than an exact number. 6) Are you concerned about high-frequency and algorithmic trading? Yes I am, because they make the market more efficient. A more efficient market means fewer opportunities. However, smart traders can still find plenty of opportunities to make money each day if they put the work in. 7) What is 1 thing traders can do today to start getting better results? Trade in samples and evaluate each sample dispassionately like a scientist. This way, you can figure out what you’re doing right and what you’re doing wrong. Don’t let emotions or pride get in the way of improving. 8) What would you be doing if you weren’t a trader? I would dedicate more time to the outdoors. But in the meantime, I’m having a lot of fun teaching and trading. P.S. Looking for a more effective and consistent approach to trading? Check out Strategic Swing Trader and Strategic Day Trader.
Continue Reading -->What’s Happening: It’s the Final Countdown to the Fed Mystery
We’re one day away from a very big Wednesday featuring FOMC and Bank of Japan rate decisions. Right now it looks like the BoJ is a bigger deal, since most traders think a Fed rate hikes is off the table tomorrow. Fed Funds futures imply a mere 20% probability of a rate hike. Bloomberg ran an interesting story this morning about how Barclays and BNP Paribas think the Fed moves tomorrow: Two of the Fed’s 23 preferred bond-trading partners — Barclays Plc and BNP Paribas SA — are betting against their peers and the bond market by forecasting officials will raise rates Wednesday. It’s the first time more than one dealer has gone against the consensus during the week of a policy meeting since last September, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Economists at both banks say traders have too steeply discounted officials’ intent to hike after the Fed has remained on hold for longer than expected. It’s a tricky situation to say the least. Remember, the rate decision itself is not everything. The signaling for the future pace of hikes is just as important. There is a very real possibility that the Fed hikes but signals an extremely slow pace of future hikes. But no one really knows, so be very careful when placing your bets. SPX futures are up fractionally this morning despite a -1.1% drop in oil. Yesterday, we saw large-cap tech leaders sell off into the close, pushing the index to finish roughly flat, though we saw nice outperformance in small caps and biotech. It still feels like traders are happy to stay in a holding pattern until the BoJ and FOMC news hits tomorrow, so it’s going ot be hard to make much sense of the action. In the energy patch, Brazilian giant Petrobas (PBR) cut its 5-year investment plan by 25% to $74.1 billion. Wells Fargo (WFC) caught an upgrade from Morgan Stanley — maybe I should have jumped on it, but I’ll reassess post-Fed. Tessera (TSRA) is buying DTS (DTSI) for $850 million. Bloomber is reporting that Bayer may drop the Monsanto (MON) name if their merger ever gets done — seems like a smart idea. The economic calendar’s pretty light — just housing starts and building permits. But don’t worry — we SHOULD get some excitement tomorrow… though it’s easy to forget that SHOULD is the most dangerous word in financial markets. Good luck out there!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler’s Morning Call Express: Indecision
In today’s Morning Call Express, T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler discusses the action in ahead of tomorrow’s big FOMC and Bank of Japan rate decisions.
Continue Reading -->T3’s Take 3: Stocks Hit the Snooze Button Ahead of a Very Big Wednesday
Prop Trading May Not Be Right For You… But it has incredible financial benefits for many traders. Click here to learn more… 1) Holding Pattern Ahead of a Very Big Wednesday Last week, we saw a rebound in volatility as traders put the summer snoozefest behind them. But stocks quieted back down today ahead of Wednesday’s big Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. The S&P 500 was flat 2139.12. The Nasdaq underperformed due to weakness in select large-cap tech names like Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN). The Russell 2000 was an outlier to the upside with a 0.6% gain, and we also saw nice gains in utilities, real estates, financials, and transports. US Treasuries, retailers, and pharmaceutical names led the decliners’ column. 2) Watch the SPX 2147-2148 Pivot This morning, T3’s Jeff Cooper highlighted key levels to watch going forward: 2147/2148 is a key level on the SPX. A) It was the August low of the long summer Slim Jim. Consequently it is the Monthly Swing Pivot—where the monthlies tuned down In September on trade below the August low. B) It ties to a 50% retrace from the 2193 all-time high to the 9/12 2118 low. Interestingly, on the Square of 9 Time & Price Calculator, 2148 also points to/aligns with September 21 and the important Gann Autumnal Equinox. Of course, this is also the date of the big Fed announcement on interest rates. You can’t make this stuff up! 3) Be Very, Very Careful Shorting Biotech This morning, Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) received FDA approval for Eteplirsen, a treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The stock hit a circuit breaker, reopened, and skyrocketed to finish up 74% on the day. Eteplirsen is considered to be a controversial drug, so many traders – especially shorts – were shocked by the news. Over 33% of the float was sold short, which means some folks were put out of business. So please folks, be very, very careful shorting biotech. P.S. Don’t forget to sign up for our next prop trading event! Tuesday’s Trading Calendar US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Housing Starts (Aug): exp. 1190k, prior 1211k 08:30 Housing Starts MoM (Aug): exp. -1.70%, prior 2.10% 08:30 Building Permits (Aug): exp. 1165k, prior 1152k 08:30 Building Permits MoM (Aug): exp. 1.80%, prior -0.10% Global Economics 12:50 CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement Earnings Before Open: Carnival Corp (CCL) Lennar Corp (LEN) After Close: Adobe Systems (ADBE) Copart (CPRT) FedEx Corp (FDX) KB Home (KBH)
Continue Reading -->The Morning Hammer: Ahead of the Fed, Markets Show Fear
Global markets are rallying this morning as commodities rebound and the dollar retraces ahead of Wednesday’s big FOMC rate policy announcement. Traders are pricing in a mere 20% probability of a hike this Wednesday, so traders will mostly be looking for clues to see if the Fed moves in December. Europe is up nicely despite continued weakess in Deutsche Bank (DB) which is facing liquidity concerns due to the DoJ’s demand for a $14 billion payment to settle an MBS dispute. In Asia, the overnight interbank yuan rate skyrocketed amid speculation that China’s central bank is intervening to boost its currency. Traders are also shaking off terror concerns in New York City. Over the weekend, explosive devices were set off in New York City and Seaside Park, NJ. Another devices was found in Elizabeth, NY. Venezuelan President Maduro said OPEC members are close to reaching an agreement on stabilizing the market. However, such an announcement is likely not forthcoming at the September meeting next week. OPEC’s Secretary General said September is a “meeting of consultation and not of decision-making.” SPX futures are modestly positive this morning, much to the chagrin of the bears. Sentiment is leaning modestly bearish right now. As always, the bears say everyone’s bullish and the bulls say everyone’s bearish, but the numbers (which too many people ignore) are all over the place. The 10-day moving average of the ISE Sentiment Index is 91, which points to modest bearishness. The CBOE equity put-call is 0.65, which is about in-line with the 6-month average. The AAII sentiment survey shows that 27.9% of investors are bullish vs. a long-term average of 38.5%. The only data that really shows traders being complacent is the Investors Intelligence Survey, which shows that 49% of newsletter writers are bullish. So even though markets are just -2.5% off the highs, traders very quickly rushed to price in some downside. Volatility has returned to the market after 2 months of nothing, though we could end up in a holding pattern until Wednesday, which is not only has the Fed, but a Bank of Japan rate decision. There has already been chatter that the BoJ will go even further into negative rate territory. I’d love to get some excitement ahead of then, but I’m not counting on it.
Continue Reading -->