AVAV: Anatomy of a Winning Earnings Play
In this special video, Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad walks you through a winning earnings play in drone company AeroVironment (AVAV). This video series is typically focused on swing trades, but since no swing trades triggered, this will be a special edition focused on Sami’s proprietary Earnings Play strategy, which he only started using this year. Sami used the Earnings Play to enter AVAV at $39.35, and exit the next morning at $44.67 for a $1,330 profit. (click here for a breakdown of our P&L calculations) Here’s how the trade went down: In the video above, Sami’s going to walk you through the Earnings Play from start to finish so you can understand: How Sami analyzed the daily trend in QQQ, which he uses as a market proxy The rationale behind the Earnings Play strategy Tips for predicting the post-earnings reaction How to judge expectations for earnings Lessons from past earnings playes like DHR, TMO, and CY Why AVAV appeared on Sami’s radar The ‘proof’ Sami got that AVAV was a bullish play Why he only took 250 shares Click here to learn about Sami’s Nightly Game Plan P.S. Earnings Season is still going strong. Be sure to check out this FREE Earnings Season resource: The Ultimate Guide to Trading Earnings Season
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today? We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:Why gold may no longer be the safe haven you think it isApple’s plans to lock you in its iOS ecosystemHow Hurricane Harvey is bringing out the best in some peopleAnd more! So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Why Gold Is Less of a Haven These Days (Bloomberg) Having waited patiently for the “any-minute-now” moment, gold investors are taking comfort from the recent rise in price in response to geopolitical tensions. Yet the responsiveness of gold, as well as the overall price, appears weaker than would have been expected from historically based models — and for understandable reasons. Read the Story ==> 2) Trump hits road to tout tax reform as helping workers (Reuters) President Donald Trump will turn his signature populist rhetoric toward tax reform on Wednesday in a speech expected to tout tax cuts as a way to help workers and the middle class in an economy “rigged” against them, senior White House officials said. Read the Story ==> 3) Scott Redler’s Chart Attack: SPX, QQQ, TSLA, BABA, and AAPL (T3 Live) T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler breaks down 5 key charts so you can understand how he’s reading the market action at a confusing juncture. Continued Reading ==> 4) This is Apple’s long game to ‘trap’ you inside the iPhone (Boy Genius Report) No matter how much greener the grass might get on the other side, I’m certain I’ll never leave the iPhone/Mac ecosystem. I have everything I need inside iOS/macOS that switching to other operating system seems like a very bad idea. Like me, there are millions of other people, and it looks like Apple is really interested in extending the iPhone “trap” for as long as possible. Continued Reading ==> 5) Top Analyst: Amazon is about to take off (CNBC) A widely followed research analyst said Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods Market will add to the e-commerce giant’s bottom line, quickly. In his first note to investors since the buy-out of the organic grocery chain became official on Monday, Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets raised his estimate for Amazon’s 2018 profit by 10 percent. Continue Reading ==> 6) What Getting Punched in the Face Taught Me About Trading (T3 Live) On August 26, 2017, Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather squared off in the biggest combat sports spectacle of all time. To celebrate this historic sporting event, T3 Live’s Ifan Wei, a former collegiate boxer, will teach you a simple boxing lesson that directly applies to trading. Continue Reading ==> 7) Traders are no longer impressed by the biggest driver of stock market gains (Business Insider) The stock market is becoming a victim of its own success. Even when companies turn in impressive earnings reports, that strength isn’t translating to higher stock prices. Continue Reading ==> 8) Nation’s largest oil refinery forced to shut down as Harvey floods Port Arthur (CNBC) The largest oil refinery in the country is shutting down as Hurricane Harvey causes more catastrophic flooding.Early Wednesday, Motiva said it started closing its Port Arthur refinery “in response to increasing local flood conditions.” The plant won’t open until flood waters recede. Continue Reading ==> 9) What Floyd Mayweather Can Teach You About Negotiation (Inc.) Whether you have engaged personally in the sport of boxing or are just a fan of watching, there is much to be learned from the boxer mindset and performance that you can apply to your own life. Here’s how to dominate in a business negotiation in the same manner as Mayweather did this last weekend. Continue Reading ==> 10) The Cajun Navy to the Rescue! (YouTube) There’s not much to say. In an era of unprecedented divide, the Cajun Navy shows America at its absolute best:
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Update: From Depressed to Indifferent
Last Friday, traders became very bearish due to a combination of domestic and international strife, indicating that the market may finally be reacting to political volatility. Markets then powered up off the lows on Monday before a power rally on Tuesday. We’ve drifted sideways since then, so let’s take a fresh look at our 4 sentiment measures to see which way the crowd is leaning heading into this weekend. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bullish Two weeks ago, the VIX hit 17.28, but with markets steadying themselves, it’s back under 12. The 3-month spread is at +2.65, which means traders are moderately bullish. We’ve seen many readings above 4 this year, which is what I regard serious bullishness. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 22. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 22 qualifies as extremely fearful. This is just slightly up from 19 last week, and is one of the lowest readings we’ve seen this year. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 28.1% of individual investors are bullish, down from 34.2% last week. This 28.1% reading indicates that individual investors are moderately bearish, and it’s the lowest reading since June 1. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bullish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.69 Thursday, which is justl above the long-term average of 0.655. The 3-day moving average is 0.61, which is below the long-term average and thus bullish. These numbers indicate that traders are moderately bullish Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 2 bullish (up from 0 last week) 0 neutral (down from 1 last week) 2 bearish (down from 3 last week) We have 2 bullish indicators and 2 bearish indicators, so they cancel each other out. So we’ve gone from very, very negative sentiment last week to pretty much neutral sentiment this week. Unfortunately, that means we don’t have much to go on heading into the weekend. When sentiment is leaning hard one way or the other, that can give us possible opportunities for countertrend trades, but we are definitely not there today. I like to say the bulls always say there are too many bears, and that bears always say there are too many bulls. But today everyone’s wrong: we’re split down the middle
Continue Reading -->Active Swing Trade Management: A $1500+ Profit in CBI
In this special video, Nightly Game Plan Moderator Sami Abusaad walks you through a winning trade in Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI). Like many infrastructure stocks, CBI was flying high after the President election, but it’s since come back down to Earth. But on August 22, Sami spotted an opportunity for a swing long with one of his favorte strategies: the Exhaustion Gap Fade As of the close on Thursday, August 24, the trade had returned $1,550 for Sami. (click here for a breakdown of our P&L calculations) In the video below, Sami’s going to walk you through the trade from start to finish so you can understand: Why Sami starts with the daily chart, and then drops down to the hourly How Sami identified the entry at $10.15, and how he managed his stops to minimize risk Risk-reward calculations What to do when a stock hits a target Trailing a stop for ongoing risk management How this trade fit into the 4 stages of stock movement Click here to learn about Sami’s Nightly Game Plan
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today? We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:What the Fed is saying about inflation and interest rate policyWhat ECB President Mario Draghi could say at Jackson HoleApple’s Hollywood invasionAnd more! So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming (Bloomberg) HSBC Holdings Plc, Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley see mounting evidence that global markets are in the last stage of their rallies before a downturn in the business cycle. Analysts at the Wall Street behemoths cite signals including the breakdown of long-standing relationships between stocks, bonds and commodities as well as investors ignoring valuation fundamentals and data. It all means stock and credit markets are at risk of a painful drop. Read the Story ==> 2) Euro powers ahead against sterling as hawkish Draghi shrugs off exchange rate worries (The Telegraph) Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, said the eurozone economy is firing on all cylinders as super-easy monetary policy continues to flush the system with liquidity. “It is before our eyes,” he said. Read the Story ==> 3) Scott Redler on Cheddar TV: AAPL, TSLA, and More! (T3 Live) T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer Scott Redler appeared on Cheddar TV to discuss some key investing topics, including why long-term investors are actually helped by market declines, and his thoughts on the 8-year old bull market.Continued Reading ==> 4) Report: Carrier sources indicate Apple iPhone 8 event date set for September 12 (9 to 5 Mac) Mac4Ever is reporting that they know when the September Apple event will take place, where Apple will announce three new iPhones: the OLED iPhone 8 and the iterative ‘7s’ phones. The report says that the event will happen on September 12 citing carrier sources Continued Reading ==> 5) True price of an Uber ride in question as investors assess firm’s values (Reuters) What is the true cost of an Uber ride? That simple question is often lost among the many controversies facing the ride-services company as it tries to hire a new chief executive and resolve a bitter dispute with the old one, Travis Kalanick. Continue Reading ==> 6) The 7 Deadly Sins of Trading, and How You Can Cure Them (T3 Live) Greed can eat you alive… even if you have all the money in the world. It’s one of the 7 deadly sins you’ve heard about from religious texts or pop culture. And as you’re about to learn, they all apply to trading, and they all have cures if you understand them. Continue Reading ==> 7) WPP faces worst year in a decade as advertisers cut spending (The Guardian) Sir Martin Sorrell’s WPP is facing its worst year in a decade as the world’s largest advertising group was forced to slash growth forecasts for the second time after sales went into reverse in the first half. The company cut its full-year growth forecast for revenues and net sales to between zero and 1% after reporting a marked deterioration in the second quarter that missed City expectations by some distance. Continue Reading ==> 8) 50 million could watch Mayweather-McGregor in the US alone (CNBC) Conor McGregor’s improbable challenge of Floyd Mayweather Jr. could be seen by a staggering 50 million people in the United States as fans and the curious gather in small and large parties. The fight Saturday night threatens the pay-per-view revenue record set by Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao two years ago and could dwarf it in viewership as people use the event as a reason to have friends and family over for a little escapism and controlled violence. Continue Reading ==> 9) IRS Uses Chainalysis to Track Down Bitcoin Tax Cheats (The CoinTelegraph) The IRS is actively seeking out tax evaders using Bitcoin, employing tools like Chainalysis to unmask them. Many people believe that Bitcoin is anonymous, but it is in fact pseudonymous. All transactions linked to a particular address are visible on the Blockchain, which is public and transparent. However, it is not possible to link a particular wallet address to the real world identity of a person/company without any additional information. Continue Reading ==> 10) Ray Dalio – How to Find Financial Success (YouTube) Ray Dalio, founder of mega hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, is one of the richest men in the worth, with a net worth of $17 billion. But while most hedge fund masterminds keep a low profile, Dalio is quite outspoken and happy to share his views on the world. In this video, Dalio identifies the 5 steps to financial success, and gives you his unique take on the American and European economies:
Continue Reading -->How Sami Abusaad Spotted a Major Bottom in ENDP
In this special video, Sami Abusaad, Director of our Nightly Game Plan program walks you through a trade in fast-moving biotech stock Endo International (ENDP). ENDP dropped about 50% in 3 weeks, providing Sami with an opportunity to go long with his proprietary Climactic Buy Setup. This swing trade returned a profit of over $1,570 in under 3 days, giving you an important lesson: when everyone’s trying to get out, it may be time to get in. (click here for an explanation of how we calculate profits and losses) But that’s easier said than done. So Sami’s going to walk you through the trade step by step so you can understand exactly how he spotted a near-term bottom in this stock. Watch the video below and you’ll learn: How Sami used volume to spot capitulation Parameters for risk-reward and trade management Fear, greed, and how they helped Sami trigger the trade Why Sami went long at $7.93 How his targets of $8.75 and $9.50 were selected Here’s the video: Click here to learn more about Sami’s Nightly Game Plan.
Continue Reading -->Did Mr. Market Just Throw Another Sentiment Boomerang?
Last Friday, sentiment got pretty awful in the wake of North Korea’s threats of an attack on Guam. And then early this week, it went full-on psycho bullish after North Korea blinked and backed off. That was good for me since I’m speculating on a big decline in the VIX… and then it wasn’t so good. With traders fearing that President Trump will have trouble instituting pro-growth policies like tax and regulatory reforms, the VIX spiked as high as 15.77 on Wednesday, up 40% from Tuesday’s 11.25 low. So my nicely profitable trade is now a loser! Let’s take a fresh look at our 4 sentiment measures to see which way the crowd is leaning heading into the weekend. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish The VIX is at 14.82 this morning, well above the July 26 all-time low at 8.84, and also above trend for this year. The 3-month spread is at +0.2, which means the VIX curve is flat. Traders are pricing in quite a bit of short-term volatility, so once again, this reading is bearish. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 19. The F&G Index operates on a 1-100 scale, and a reading of 19 qualifies as extremely fearful. 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 34.2% of individual investors are bullish. This 34.2% reading isn’t terribly far off the 38.5% long-term average, and indicates that individual investors are basically neutral. I thought this would be lower, but the number is what it is. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Bearish The CBOE Equity-Put Call ratio was at 0.78 Thursday, which is well above the long-term average of 0.66. The 3-day moving average is 0.69, which is slight above the long-term average. The 10-day moving average is 0.74, which is fairly high. These numbers indicate that traders are very bearish. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 0 bullish 1 neutral 3 bearish The data indicate that sentiment boomeranged in a big way. Traders were pricing in the end of the world last Friday. Then they got happy on Monday and early Tuesday. And now they’re depressed again. You could say volatility is becoming more volatile. And I think this is a great thing because the market’s actually giving some real back and forth action. That means more opportunities for active traders, and action that’s actually interesting to watch. I don’t know about you, but I found June through late July to be agonizing to watch. Maybe the sudden spike in volatiilty means there’s trouble down the road… but at least we’ll be awake for it. Now I’m still speculating on a decline in the VIX. To be more specific, I am: -Long VXX puts -Short VXX call spreads Will the trade go profitable again? The ideal situation is a repeat of last Friday to Monday, when sentiment boomeranged from extreme fear to extreme greed in the blink of an eye. I guess I’m about to find out if that’s just wishful thinking…
Continue Reading -->What You Don’t Know About Prop Trading… but Should
In this special extended webinar, Amber Capra breaks down everything you need to know about the exciting world of prop trading. Click the monitor to watch the replay: Amber covers the world of prop trading from A to Z, including:How to determine whether prop trading is right for youProp vs. retail trainingWhy you need training, community, and ongoing coaching to succeedHow you can qualify for 100% tuition reimbursement in our prop programThe different licensing requirements for US and non-US tradersDetails about different trading platforms, including Fusion and LightspeedHow profit splits workHow much capital you need to get started as a prop traderRisk management techniquesWhy you need a ‘Forced Discipline’ risk management programPart-time prop tradingTips for avoiding pitfalls that can hurt your trading careerHave a question about prop trading? Call 1-888-998-3548 or email us at info@t3live.com Learn About Our Omega Prop Program
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today? We’re here with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, covering topics like:What the Fed is saying about inflation and interest rate policyWhat ECB President Mario Draghi could say at Jackson HoleApple’s Hollywood invasionAnd more! So check out these links right now and get up to speed: 1) Fed Sees Balance-Sheet Move Soon as Inflation Debate Heats Up (Bloomberg)Federal Reserve officials engaged in a detailed debate about inflation while keeping the door open for a September announcement on the timing of balance-sheet reductions, according to minutes from their policy meeting in July. Read the Story ==> 2) ECB’s Draghi will not deliver fresh policy steer at Jackson Hole: sources (Reuters) European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference, two sources familiar with the situation said, tempering expectations for the bank to start charting the course out of stimulus. Read the Story ==> 3) Scott Redler Ultimate Access Interview (T3 Live) Welcome to your FREE preview of T3 Live’s Redler All-Access newsletter. Redler All-Access gives you a complete trading plan from T3 Live Chief Strategic Officer and frequent CNBC guest Scott Redler. Continued Reading ==> 4) Apple is bringing a billion-dollar checkbook to Hollywood, and wants to buy 10 TV shows (Recode) Apple is officially open for business in Hollywood. The company is telling content makers it wants to spend $1 billion on its own stuff over the next year. That’s music to studios’ ears, and a tune they have been expecting for some time — especially after Apple hired two top Sony TV executives in June. Continued Reading ==> 5) Amazon Shares Fall After Trump Says It Hurts Retailers (Bloomberg) U.S. President Donald Trump once again unloaded on Amazon.com Inc., tweeting that the company is hurting other retailers and implying that it’s killing industry jobs across the U.S. Amazon is causing “great damage to tax paying retailers,” Trump said in a Twitter post Wednesday, causing shares in the online retailer to fall as much as 1.2 percent in early trading. Continue Reading ==> 6) 7 Ways to be Just Another Failed Trader (T3 Live) Do you want to fail as a trader? Do you want to miss your next mortgage payment? Or pull your daughter out of private school because you can’t make tuition next month? Well you’re in luck! Because we’ve got 7 surefire tips for failing as a trader! Continue Reading ==> 7) Which Came First, The Taco or the Egg? (AdvertisingAge) Taco Bell is getting “naked” again, dropping its usual taco shell for a Naked Egg Taco, where a fried egg is the shell. Folks eager to try it early can do so by reserving — yes reserving — on Open Table. Chick-fil-A, meanwhile, is replacing its breakfast burrito with an updated version and offering a breakfast bowl with either sliced chicken nuggets or sausage. Continue Reading ==> 8) The Maloof brothers made what is believed to be the biggest bet yet on Mayweather-McGregor fight (Business Insider) Gavin and Joe Maloof are so confident Floyd Mayweather Jr. will beat Conor McGregor that they bet $880,000 on it. And if the Maloof brothers are big winners along with Mayweather on Aug. 26, they are giving the proceeds of their whopping wager to charity. Continue Reading ==> 9) What You Should Know About the Pro-Vegan Netflix Film ‘What the Health’ (Time) The recent pro-vegan Netflix documentary, What the Health, is under fire from nutrition experts. The film, which is co-directed by Kip Andersen and Keegan Kuhn—the creators of another Netflix documentary, Cowspiracy—and co-produced by actor Joaquin Phoenix, is being criticized by some health professionals for exaggerating weak data and misrepresenting science to promote a diet that avoids all animal foods. Continue Reading ==> 10) Life Advice from 100-Year Olds (YouTube) Want some real perspective on life? Listen to a 100-year old, because they’ve seen, heard, and experienced more than 99% of the population.
Continue Reading -->US Dollar Update: Nailed It…Again…
In this video update we revisit the US Dollar Index (UUP) as it has been under heavy pressure. Just recently it tested the key $24 level which was the 2016 low and a level we said would get tested based on a simple and objective method. In this video you will: Hear the analysis that got us to this point See how you could have made money off the bottom Find out where this is headed next
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