All posts by T3 Live
Meet Pro Trader JR Romero, Leader of the Momentum Express VTF®
Today we’re speaking with JR Romero, the Leader of T3 Live’s Momentum Express VTF®. You’ll hear about JR’s adventure from Argentina to Brazil to New York to Idaho. And you’ll learn how this Columbia University graduate went from coding to working for a major hedge fund to trading his own money. You’ll even hear about the time the roof collapsed on JR during a trade. Editor’s Note: this transcript has been edited for length and clarity. Greta Wall: I want to start from the very beginning here. Tell me about your childhood. JR Romero: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be with you today. I was born in Argentina in the late seventies during the military junta. My parents were political exiles. I grew up in Brazil and moved to the United States in the late nineties. GW: What it was like growing up in Brazil, and then emigrating to the US? JR: I had a pretty free-range childhood. If I was indoors, I was eating, sleeping, or injured. I had a wonderful childhood with lots of friends, and not a lot of schoolwork. But it was a really remarkable time. GW: What was your family like? JR: We have a long history of entrepreneurship in my family. My grandparents and great-grandparents were all business owners. My father was an economist and a business owner. He was also a very active investor, especially in the forex markets. And my mother was a dance therapist and educator. I have one sister who lives in Uruguay with two children. GW: So you didn’t spend a lot of time inside as a kid. What were your hobbies? JR: I was a pugilist from a very early age. I was very much into karate and judo. And then in my teens, I got pretty heavily into boxing. And I’ve been getting punched in the head ever since! GW: Do you still box? JR: The mileage caught up to me. I’m in my late forties, so I only hit things that don’t hit back. I do the heavy bag and light sparring, and I enjoy coaching my children. Both my sons are avid enthusiasts of boxing and kickboxing. So I’m trying to pass the torch on. GW: Did you come to US with your parents from Brazil or on your own? JR: I left the house at 17. I was a snowboarder and traveled around for a couple of years. I couch-surfed quite a bit. And my girlfriend at the time had a college application to Columbia University. I stole it from her (with permission), applied, and got in. So I came here at 19. GW: You said your dad was an investor. Did he introduce you to trading and the markets? JR: No, not at all. I was a computer engineering major at Columbia University, and then I worked for a hedge fund on the technology side. And through my interactions as a contractor, I was hired by a very important hedge fund. There I became really enthralled with the traders and how they saw the world, how they constantly analyzed probabilities about everything. They would take bets on what time the pizza guy would get there, down to the second. They built algorithms to figure out which restaurant would deliver faster, so I was instantly hooked. And I had a couple of people that took me under their wing within that organization. That’s how I was initially introduced to trading. GW: Tell me more about that transition from the IT side into the trading side. JR: I was immediately paired with the quants because of my computer science background. But I was sort of bored by it. I understood what they were doing. I was more fascinated by technical analysis, charting, and economic catalysts. It was fascinating to watch how trading decisions were made. And I asked to be trained and I was given a shot to participate in that. Eventually, I started trading on my own. It was a real struggle at first, going from institutional to private trading. You don’t have risk managers looking over your head. You don’t have team meetings. You don’t have that kind of support. When you go from trading institutional money to your own money, it’s a very different feeling that’s very hard for some traders to adjust to. GW: When you look back on your early days of trading for yourself, what would you say was the biggest mistake that you made? I was an acute sufferer of the Dunning-Kruger effect from my early days. (Editor’s Note: The Dunning-Kruger effect is a psychological phenomena which occurswhen a person’s lack of knowledge leads them to overestimate their abilities) I had a strong foundation in math and science and a keen understanding of technical analysis. After a couple of years, I thought I was really a good technician. But I found out there is a vast difference between being proficient at reading charts, and actually being a trader. That transition was very difficult and very painful. And it led me down some rabbit holes that took some time to untangle. But, eventually, I figured out a trading style that fit me, and a methodology that worked for my personality, And it’s been a great ride ever since. GW: On the flip side, what was the best thing you did in your early days of training? JR: Asking for help was the best thing I ever did. And the second best thing I ever did was to realize early on that as a trader, you are truly on your own. No one else possesses your same personality profile, your same characteristics, and your same view of the market. And I realized that to be successful, I needed to develop my own sensibility, my own strategy, and my own approach to markets. GW: So you mentioned earlier that had mentors at the institutional firm you were working for. Tell me about those mentors and how they
Continue Reading -->Kira Turner Talks Trading, Skydiving, Scubadiving, and Rodeos
Inner Circle’s Kira Turner appeared on the Madam Trader podcast to talk her trading career, and her fascinating history in high-stakes sports like rodeos and skydiving: After you listen, check out Inner Circle.
Continue Reading -->2 Minute Reversals Webinar Replay
Check out our latest webinar with JR Romero of Newsbeat, where he teaches his #1 Day Trading reversal strategy After you watch the video, check out our Black Friday sale!
Continue Reading -->26 Questions With Derrick Oldensmith
Get to know Pro Trader Derrick Oldensmith in this fun interview! *This transcript has been edited for length and clarity Who are you? I’m Derrick Oldensmith and I am a Senior Trader and Registered Principal at T3 Trading Group. How long have you been a trader? I’ve been a trader with T3 for about 12 years. I was a sales trader for a different company before that. And I’ve been involved in markets in one way or another since I was a kid. I bought my first stock when I was about 13 years old. Do you love it? I love what I do. Every day is different, and that’s what gets me excited. I’m looking at the same Excel spreadsheets all day, every day. I’m studying the market. My role is to figure out the next step of this constantly evolving puzzle. What’s the most important personality trait for a trader? The most important personality trait for a trader is to be disciplined. Discipline, first and foremost with your risk management and your money management. A lack of discipline with risk management and money management is the number one reason why traders fail in this business. You also have to be disciplined with the rules that you create for your trading. The only way that you can be a consistently profitable trader is to be consistent in regards to your actions with the market. The only way that you can do that is by having rules in place that you are consistently following. That may sound easy right now, but when you’re in front of the screens, and your P&L is moving, it can be very difficult. What’s the best trade you’ve ever made? One that just comes to mind right away was being long JNUG on the run back up after Covid. It might not be my best trade ever but it’s up tere. It’s a 3X leveraged junior miner gold ETF. I always think it’s funny because for most of my career I’ve disliked the gold miners as trading vehicles and even as investments. Yet here I am involved in a 3X leveraged junior Gold miner ETF in a multi-week swing that turned out to be one of my best trades ever. How do you define success as a trader? That’s a very individual question for each trader based on the goals that they make for themselves. First, you have to have goals. And then success is in achieving those goals and then in the creation of new goals. Those could be goals for profitability, for consistency, or for building an account size. How do you stay up to date with the changing financial markets? I read a lot of news and information. And what I try to avoid as much as possible, which is really hard in this day and age, is other people’s opinions. I want more of the cold, hard facts of the news. And then I take that information into my own brain to try to figure out the next steps. And then of course, you need to have the the technicals confirm that. But this is not a 9 to 5 gig. There is a lot of work that needs to be done in order to be successful in this business. What’s the hardest mistake to avoid while trading? Probably getting in your own head. It goes back to being a disciplined trader and having a disciplined approach. It always sounds very easy on paper that you just have to do the right things consistently over time with your trading. But in practice, it’s so easy for us to get in our own heads. You get shaken out of that one trade right before it works. Or you have a bad P&L day and then it affects your next day of trading. What did you hate most about learning to trade? It’s a tough question, because I love learning, period. The hardest thing about learning, though, is probably the fact that you’re going to take a lot of step backs, right? A lot of this business is, you take two steps forward in your trading, two steps forward in your learning process, just to then have the market environment change, or you take a P&L hit, or a new obstacle gets in your way. And then you’re taking one step back. But sometimes you have to take that one step back in order to learn more and take those next two steps forward. So, I love learning in general, but you’re absolutely going to hit stumbling blocks along the way. Do you beat yourself up after a bad day? Before I can answer, I have to define what a bad day is in trading. I don’t think that a good day or bad day is necessarily P&L based. Obviously, that has something to do with it, right? If you have a big P&L day, up on the upside or on the downside, it’s hard not to feel a degree of emotion about that. But the real thing to be asking yourself when you have that good day or you have a bad day is, “did you do the right things today?” Because if you did all the wrong things and made a lot of money, you should not be happy about that. As a matter of fact, if you are happy about that, you’re setting yourself up for long-term failure. The truth is that we work in a game of probabilities. Sometimes you will do all of the right things and still lose money. You have to be able to take a step back and say, “Hey, I did all the right things. If I did this 100 times, I’m gonna be making money in the long run. It just didn’t work out today.” So, when I beat myself up, it isn’t just because I lost money today. It’s because I made mistakes that caused me to lose money. Or heck,
Continue Reading -->SPY vs. QQQ for Day Traders: What You Need to Know
SPY and QQQ are the two most discussed ETFs in the world. Every single trader out there has bought or sold them at some point. But what are the differences between SPY and QQQ? And are they more similar or different? SPY vs. QQQ: In ShortSPY and QQQ are very similar, but have some important differences. QQQ is more volatile because it is more concentrated in technology and high-growth stocks. It also has no exposure to energy or financials. Many active day traders like QQQ more than SPY because of its increased volatility. So as you’d expect, SPY outperforms when financial and energy stocks are in favor. SPY also has a lower expense ratio and higher dividend yield, which help it appeal to swing traders and long-term investors. The Basics of SPY and QQQSPY is the symbol of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.It is managed by State Street Global Advisors, one of the largest asset management companies in the United States.SPY tracks the performance of the benchmark S&P 500 index.QQQ is the symbol for the Invesco QQQ ETF, which is managed by Invesco.QQQ is based on the Nasdaq 100 index, not the Nasdaq Composite as commonly thought.Traders never use the full names of these ETFS.You often hear people SPY called simply SPY, SPYs (pronounced like spies), or “spiders” which is a reference to the SPDR brand name.And when you hear a trader say “the Qs” they are talking about QQQ.What SPY and QQQ Have in CommonSPY and QQQ are similar in many ways.They give you instant exposure to a variety of companies, though in different ways, as you will see below.Both ETFs are extremely liquid.At the time of writing, SPY traded 81 million shares per day, while QQQ’s average volume was 58 million. Plus, both have active options markets.So it’s easy to get in and out of positions.SPY and QQQ are also inexpensive. SPY has an annual expense ratio of 0.09% while QQQ’s is 0.2%.Short-term traders love the liquidity of these instruments. And long-term investors like the low expense ratios.SPY and QQQ are also both based on market cap-weighted indices, meaning that the stocks with the biggest market capitalizations have the biggest weightings in the funds.SPY vs. QQQ: A Holdings ComparisonThis is where things get interesting.SPY and QQQ have many holdings in common. In fact, the top 4 holdings in each are identical. And 6 of the top 10 are the same.Here’s each fund’s top 10 holdings by weight. HoldingSPY QQQ#1 Apple (AAPL): 7.0% of the fund Apple (AAPL): 14% of the fund#2 Microsoft (MSFT): 5.3% Microsoft (MSFT): 9.9%#3 Amazon (AMZN): 2.6% Amazon (AMZN): 5.7%#4 Tesla (TSLA): 1.9% Tesla (TSLA): 4.0%#5 Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): 1.7% Alphabet Class C (GOOG): 3.2%#6 Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B) Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): 3.1%#7 UnitedHealthy (UNH) Nvidia (NVDA): 2.8%#8 Alphabet Class C (GOOG): 1.5% Pepsico (PEP): 2.5%#9 Exxon Mobil (XOM) Costco (COST): 2.1%#10 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 1.4% T-Mobile (TMUS): 1.9%Data Source: MorningstarAnd if you notice, the QQQ is much more top heavy. This is because it is comprised of 103 stocks vs. 503 for the SPY. Note: the Nasdaq 100 has 103 stocks in it and the S&P 500 has 503 stocks. This is because some companies like Alphabet (GOOGL) have more than one share class.The top 10 stocks in the QQQ account for 49.2% of the fund, so just 10 out of 103 holdings account for almost half the fund’s performance. Apple (AAPL) is number-one at 14.0%.SPY’s 10 biggest holdings are 26.0% of the fund, with Apple weighing in at 7.0%.Now let’s talk about sectors.People often equate QQQ with technology because 50% of the fund’s assets are in tech stocks vs. 26.2% for the SPY. And interestingly, QQQ has zero exposure to energy, financials, materials, and real estate.SectorSPY QQQConsumer Discretionary 10.8% 15.4%Consumer Staples 6.9% 7.1%Energy 5.4% 0%Financial 11.6% 0%Healthcare 15.4% 7.6%Industrials 8.3% 3.8%Information Technology 26.2% 50.0%Materials 2.6% 0%Real Estate 2.6% 0%Communication Services 7.3% 14.7% Communication Services 3.0% 1.5%SPY vs. QQQ: VolatilityAs you’d expect, the QQQ is more volatile than SPY.Beta is a common measure of volatility for stocks and ETFs.The SPY has a Beta of 1.0, while QQQ’s is 1.10.So for every 1% SPY moves up or down, the QQQ is expected to move 1.1%.For that reason, many active day traders gravitate towards QQQ. They can get more movement, which is critical for day traders..Of course, on any given day, the performance can vary by a wide margin, particularly if there is big movement in tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN).During earnings season, you can expect dramatic differences between SPY and QQQ when a big name like Apple reports.SPY vs. QQQ: PerformanceSPY and QQQ’s performance is almost always in the same neighborhood because each has significant exposure to major sectors of the economy.However, performance during a given time period varies based on the risk appetite of the public.When markets are in a state of euphoria, expect QQQ to outperform SPY.In 2020, QQQ rose 48.6% because tech stocks like Apple and Tesla rallied so hard after the pandemic bottom.And when the market is bearish, QQQ will underperform because tech stocks get devalued quickly.When the tech bubble burst in 2000, QQQ fell -36.9% vs. a -9.2% drop for SPY.Sectors also play a role at times.In 2021 and 2022, SPY outperformed because of strength in energy stocks, of which there are none in the QQQ.Yes, 2022 is a down year as of this writing, but SPY is down less because of energy exposure.SPY vs. QQQ: Dividend YieldSPY’s dividend yield is 1.61%, more than double the QQQ’s 0.68%.That’s no surprise given that QQQ has no exposure to the highest-yielding sectors like financials, energy, and utilities. SPY vs. QQQ: Which Is Better?So what’s better? SPY or QQQ?The answer is… it depends on what you need and want.If you want more volatility in your portfolio and can stomach of risky technology stocks, QQQ fits the bill. In fact, many traders prefer QQQ because of the volatility.If you want stability, SPY makes more sense. What do you think? Do you trade SPY,
Continue Reading -->Rick March Talks Fibonaccis, Options, and Old School Trading Pits
Get to know Rick Turner one of our Inner Circle moderators, in this in-depth interview. Interview Transcript* *this transcript has been edited for length and clarity Michael Comeau: Rick, tell us about what it was like when you got started in the market, and how that’s different from today. Rick March: When I was 10 years old, my grandfather, who drew charts by hand, gave me his book of charts. It was 500 pages for the S&P 500 stocks. 90% of them don’t exist anymore. But I looked at the charts. And I said “when this crosses over this, it’s a buying indication.” I asked why, and he explained. When I was 13 years old, while my friends were going to camp and having a good time, I was a runner on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. I was taking orders from the desks. That was my first experience on the floor. For my first, trade, I bought five December corn at $162.50. I would stand in a pit and trade one or two months of a commodity, or S&P, or the yen, or cattle, And now I sit at a desk and trade any 1 of 500 stocks and options. MC: So it was like Trading Places with people screaming at each other and making those crazy hand gestures? Is it actually more chaotic today than it was when you were on the floor? RM: Everything’s computerized now. And it’s not as fun as standing in a pit with 50 men and women, watching everybody scream and freak out. That was fun. Not because they were freaking out, but because you could read the emotions on their faces. Behind a computer screen, I can’t tell if somebody’s blown out longs. MC: So it seems like you started on charts from a very early age. How has technical analysis changed from then to today? RM: Back then, there were no algos. There were no computers. We drew trend lines and watch the breakouts. And if cattle broke out to a new high, we would tell our clients. We would do this all by hand and on the phone. There was no immediate drawing of a chart and posting it in Inner Circle. So that’s 100% different. And now, there’s easily 500 methods of of price and time analysis. Stuff like WD Gann Theory and Gartley existed, but you couldn’t calculate them quickly enough for the market. There were guys in the options pits, who had their sheets of what X options should be trading at Y desk and Y price. And they would stand there and look at their sheets. They wouldn’t make a trade until something came up on their sheets. MC: So we should be grateful with all the amazing technology we have today that’s basically free. RM: Absolutely, because it enables me as a trader and an analyst. It’s amazing. MC: Let’s talk a little bit about your trading style. How would you describe it? RM: I follow the market flow and the options. I’m very blessed to have two partners at Inner Circle. I don’t mind buying something at a high price thinking it’s going to trade higher. That’s how I do these SPX lotto call traders that you’ve seen there. Kira Turner is great at seeing a day trade coming, and David Prince plans trades better than anybody I’ve ever met in my life. So to answer your question, I swing trades, I do a lot of options trades, and I day trade. MC: Many technicians are pretty loosey-goosey and doing things by feel. So how mechanical is your buying and selling? RM: It depends on what I’m trading. I set alerts in stock where if they get hit, I can buy or sell the stock or option I want to be in. MC: You have no problem just pulling the trigger when that happens? RM: If I’m setting it up in options, then I don’t. Because I say, at $80, I’ll buy this. All right, at $100, I’ll sell this. And that’s what works for me with the stock. For example, I’ve been short Beyond Meat (BYND) for months from significantly higher prices. I want to cover in the single digits, but I haven’t put the order in because it could go lower. When you get to a level where you think you should buy or sell, you need to take action. If you don’t, you’ll regret it after the trade is done. That’s why we trim and trail. MC: Let’s talk about regret because I don’t think people talk about regret enough. When a trade is done, do you just fully put it behind you? RM: It would be nice to put it behind me. The way my brain works is, I pay attention to that stock or option for a couple of weeks after. I don’t necessarily go back into the same price and do the same trade, but I’m aware of it. Because if I made a mistake, I need to learn from it. So I can build my talent and build my equity going forward. MC: Do you worry about algos or HFTs when you are trading? RM: The only thing I worry about during my trading is when the market goes to a standstill. I don’t know what to do in a quiet market. My biggest frustration is a lack of action. MC: Is there ever a time where you just sit on your hands and do nothing? RM: I’m trying to do more and more of that. MC: It seems like people have an urge to take action, to just do something. RM: They absolutely do. For some people, it’s like being at the casino and seeing the craps table. They have to do something. But trading is not a casino. Trading is not gambling. We figure out the possible risk versus the probable or improbable reward. You have to think through risk before you
Continue Reading -->How Kira Turner Went from Extreme Athlete to Top Trader
Get to know Kira Turner, one of our Inner Circle moderators, in this in-depth interview. Interview Transcript* *this transcript has been edited for length and clarity Michael Comeau: Kira is a full-time professional trader out of Austin, Texas, where she lives with her three children and two dogs. She was a pro trader in the nineties, trading at cornerstone trading from 1994 to 2001. Then she moved into real estate investing, and she back to trading in 2018. One of the really interesting things about Kira is she has a lot of experience in what some would consider high risk activities. Namely rodeos. and skydiving. It turns out that rodeos are pretty dangerous about — about 20 times more dangerous than football in terms of the risk of a catastrophic injury. So this is going to be a really interesting conversation about developing nerves for trading, managing risk and keeping your head together. Kira Turner: Thank you. It’s good to be here and I never would have realized that radios were so dangerous. That’s a very interesting statistic. MC: Would you have done it if you know it was so dangerous in the first place? KT: When you’re young, you think you’re bulletproof. And so I never thought I would get hurt really doing anything. I got a couple of concussions and I had a couple of broken bones. So you can get hurt, but you never think ABOUT that when you’re a kid. MC: So that’s going to bring us to a different kind of starting point than usual. I want to talk a little bit about the type of person you are. How would you describe your own personality? KT: I would describe myself as a glass half full kind of person. So, I’m always looking for the bright side. And I’m pretty easy going, but I’m very driven, as far as making changes goes. If I see something I don’t like, you know, in myself, or in my house, or whatever, I think, what are the steps I need to take to change that? And I’ll just be on a path toward achieving my goal. And that’s been pretty consistent throughout my life. If I decide I want something, I figure out how I need to get there, and then I head in that direction. MC: How does that relate to your trading, and how you manage risk on a day to day basis? Are you saying you have little attachment to what’s in front of you? KT: I don’t know if I would say that, but sometimes it’s good not to have too much attachment. Today was a really hard day. In fact, you’re probably interviewing me on one of the hardest trading days of the year. What I will do this evening is probably take a long walk and really think about what I did today. What I could have done better, if there were trades that I took too much risk on, or should have taken more risk on, and that kind of thing. So I’ll just kind of replay today and focused on how to make it better. MC: Can you give me an example:? KT: At one point I got short the futures. There was a slow downtrend, and I didn’t take profit when I had it. I had about 100 points of profit. And I thought we would move up a little bit and then just continue our nice slow downtrend. That didn’t happen. So I ended up giving back a fair amount of my profit just to try to stay in the trade. Because on trend days, I like to get in and just keep moving my stop and just today it wasn’t the day for that. I’m should have been more careful. MC: I want to compare this to rodeos specifically. What is the mix of confidence, fear and excitement on a day like this vs. when you’re about to get on a 1,200 pound horse that could kick you in the head? How did those emotions mix for you? KT: In both cases, it’s a performance, right? So you’ve got a certain amount of time where you need to do something. It’s so psychological in both cases, and you’ve got to be mentally prepared. The key component is knowing what your risk is. On a horse, your risk might be falling off, or the horse stumbles and falls or something like that. In the market, I can control my risk even better because, depending on the size of my position, I can control how much money is at risk. Part of what I love about trading is the excitement, but it’s also because I know how much risk that I have. MC: That’s an interesting point. Because technically, anything could happen. We have all these economic issues, geopolitical issues. Everything is going crazy. So how do you assess how much is actually at risk? KT: Well, for instance, I’ve got a small biotech stock and it’s around $4. I know that, even if the whole market falls apart, it’s not probably going to go under $3.50. That’s just a low-risk position for me, so I don’t worry about that. If I’m in something that’s likely to move a lot, or that I’m afraid might move a lot, I would use options. My risk would be limited to the amount of premium that I’ve paid. If I’m actually in stock, and I’m worried about it, I lower my size. Something I’ve talked to Inner Circle members a bunch about is that if you have a lot of anxiety about a trade, and that’s keeping you up at night, for sure, you need to be in less size. If you’re worried that a loss can really damage your account and hurt your ability to trade because it eats up too much of your capital loss, then you’re in too much. You need to have a smaller position, and take
Continue Reading -->How Bear Markets Work – David Prince Talks Anxiety, Pain, and the Light at the End of the Tunnel
Want to learn how to trade through a bear market while keeping your sanity and wallet intact? Then check out this interview with David Prince, Founder of our Inner Circle community. David delivers the cold, hard truth about bear markets, including: What a bear market is beyond a mere 20% decline in the SPX The psychological toll the market takes on your brain How to keep your head screwed on straight when volatility is high Where he is finding opportunity The stocks he is watching for 2023 and 2024 What’s different about the oil sector What he sees in the semiconductor and housing markets What a bottom really looks like And more! FULL INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT Note: this interview has been edited for length and clarity. Michael Comeau: David, I’ll start by asking you a simple question: What is a bear market? David Prince: There’s the classic definition of a being 20% down from the highs. But the way I see it, a bear market is a market that is trending lower and has not hit a bottom, and doesn’t have one in the foreseeable future. MC: Can you talk about the psychological impact of a bear market? What is that doing to people’s minds right now? DP: Sure. You have the initial reaction: “Oh my God, it’s not easy anymore the way it used to be.” Then you have the “Okay ,I hope it gets better” phase. Then you’re in the “hope didn’t work, I’ve lost money, and this is starting to get painful” phase. Then you have the “I need to find a new career” phase. Finally, you have the panic and distaste and lack of interest. It’s a long process that many people don’t adjust to or recognize until they’re halfway through. Sometimes you have angry people. And course, there are happy aggressive traders that love downside momentum because things go down much faster than they go up. For some people, bear markets are great. MC: How do you view the temperature out there now? The VIX is up about 65% in the last few weeks and all the sentiment indicators are very negative. Are people pessimistic enough? DP: No. We saw so many bullish extremes in 2021 and I expect more of the same on the downside. I’ve been around for a while and I’ve seen a lot of crazy things happen, but nothing like JPEGs selling for millions of dollars or Plug Power (PLUG) hitting $70. And cockamamie companies that have been around for decades losing money becoming hot stocks. You had names like Snowflake (SNOW) come off the lows from earnings and go up something like 70-80%. That’s not indicative of everyone being despondent and it’s not anywhere near the way you bottom. There is not that ever-present fear, like people waking up and asking “how much money am I going to lose?” I haven’t seen that yet. MC: So let’s talk about the silly stuff. We saw a boom in things like NFT’s, Rolex watches, sports cars, electric guitars, trading card games, cryptos. Has that stuff bottomed? DP: It’s sort of irrelevant to me. I won’t judge Where we are in the marketplace by really like how far Bitcoin has dropped. It Doesn’t have to go to $10,000 or $12,000 to create a bottom in risk assets. I almost don’t care. I don’t think the lows are in for the art market and the watch market. I’m into collectables, like sneakers, art, you name it. The point is that market has only barely come up. The car market is just beginning to implode. There will be upside down Lamborghinis everywhere you look over the next couple of years. You’ll be able to buy them for pennies on the dollar. There’s further to go, but I don’t paint them all with the same brush. MC: Months ago, inside Inner Circle, you talked about the semiconductor industry moving into a state of oversupply. Now JP Morgan is talking about oversupply of everything. Do you think that’s priced in? DP: It’s a process and it’s not a one-quarter deal. It’s often two to three quarters. And the difference this time is the amount of orders – the that double and triple catch-up to what they thought demand could be. The downside here might be longer and more severe than we normally see. These stocks will bottom before the news flow changes. But I don’t think they’ve hit bottom yet because of the ordering that every major chip company did in 2020 and 2021. MC: It feels like a lot of high-profile market people are catching flack. Like Cathie Wood wrote that letter to the Fed and people laughed. And Jim Cramer has been catching a lot of flack with the inverse ETF and those sorts of things. It seems like we’re in hero-killing mode, symbolically. Do you think that’s fair to them? DP: When you put yourself out there publicly, it comes with the territory, right? Movie stars complain about not having privacy, but then they make $20 million on their next film. So the direct answer is how they handle it. I think, in both instances, neither has humility. I think Cramer is beyond bright. If he was just a little bit more humble and talked about his mistakes, it would be better. And Cathie never said “I probably made a mistake here.” Neither of them had any humility, and that’s why they’re so attacked. I make mistakes all the time, but at least I come clean. Josh Brown made a bad call on the CPI and he came clean and said he was wrong. No one thinks about it anymore because he was humble about it. So I think they deserve it because they pretend they don’t make mistakes. MC: Let’s talk about humility. I felt like a genius in 2020, less smart in 2021, and a moron this year because I see an awful lot of red in my account. What advice do
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Check out Inner Circle Moderator Kira Turner’s appearance on the 2 Bulls in a China Shop podcast: Kira shares: Her role in the Inner Circle community How she got into trading How she transitioned to trading from rodeo competitions and skydiving The odd reason she began trading How she finds here trades When she knows a position is too big The reason she changed her trading style in the past 2 years What’s working in the current market environment How to make money in news-based trades And more!
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