All posts by Scott Redler

How I’m Trading Tesla Here and Now

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We have mostly green arrows around the world as January tries to be a better month for equities. Friday’s Jobs Report created a lot of talk about a soft landing. But it’s too early to tell. The bears got pushed back when SPX cleared 3839 Friday. It was also able to pass 3878 to show a little power. CPI is Thursday and Powell speaks at 9:00 tomorrow. We can see 3958-3993 before the fundamental bears can push their narrative again. I always trim into strength with a gap in my favor to net some money. Then we can measure the action after the open. SPY cleared $382 on Friday to get me more neutral to positive. I took off my SPY puts to salvage some money Friday and I’m coming in long some risk. I’ll trim and trail but I’ll  keep some because we can see $393-$396 pre-CPI Thursday. Today, we’ll see how we deal with $389.25. QQQ did a Red Dog Reversal on Friday as it reclaimed $261.26 to relieve pressure. It also cleared Thursday’s high to show some power. I’m not expecting a blockbuster move, but it could bounce to $274-$278 this week. So let’s talk Tesla (TSLA) and some other names. TSLA reclaimed $104.64 and $107.16 to get me long for an oversold bounce Friday. I already trimmed a little as it’s $116.50ish. I’ll try and stay with some. If it can clear $117.50, the next spot is $124ish. It had a big move from $305 down to $104.64 and now we’ll see what type of broken bounce it can have. AAPL broke $129 to see a low of $124.17. It was hard to make money with puts. I sold some of mine Friday because I felt a bounce can come. We’ll see how it acts today. Does it get and stay above $130.40 to help active bulls with a move to $133ish? Or does strength get sold again? META has been a good swing long from last week when it held the $122 gap pivot. I’m still in some stock plus a call spread for Friday. I’ll keep managing it and I’d trim some. AMZN did a Red Dog Reversal around the $83.07 pivot to get some long. I’ll trim into some strength, but a close above $87 could open the door to resistance near the $94 area. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-01-09 at 7.32.AM

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Can Elon Musk Commit to Tesla?

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SPY did a double top at $410 on CPI day and then again on the FOMC at $405ish. I sold a lot of calls to collect premium. My SPY puts also helped into Friday, when I sold half and made some into a put spread. We’re seeing a small bounce attempt today. The resistance #1 area is $386-$388. If we see that, I’d probably sell $393-$395 calls because I think  move into year-end would be capped. QQQ’s failed to hold $295 on CPI day and has been under pressure since hitting a low of $272.67 Friday. If we see a bounce attempt today, I’d think $278ish is resistance and then we’ll have a big one around $283ish. So let’s talk Tesla (TSLA) and some other names. TSLA has been broken since September with lots of ways to stay out of the way. Last week it showed extreme relative weakness and Elon sold more shares. On Friday it was rejected into the $161 area and made another new low on the year, hitting $150.04. It’s trying to bounce a bit on the possibility of a new Twitter CEO. But it’s hard to get excited here. See if the early strength holds or fades. AAPL sold down hard last week to hit $133.73.We’ll see if today’s bounce sticks for a day or fades. $136.50-$137.50 is now resistance. NFLX filled the gap up to $332. It’s been a great vehicle for us the past two months. I’m glad we were out before Last Thursday’s news and gap down. It made a low of $286 and had a small bounce Friday. I wouldn’t chase prices. Perhaps it goes green to red today. MSFT hit $263 and sold down fast. Some got short around $253 and it hit $243ish. I’d think $249ish would reject a bounce attempt.

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2 Levels to Watch in Apple Right Now

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We have mixed markets around the world ahead of the CPI Tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. China is dismantling their restrictive controls, but FXI went 30% off the lows already. We have about $43 billion worth of deals with HZNP and COUP getting bought to show there are some bargains out there. SPX is about 10% off the lows, and 17% off the highs with about 3 weeks left in 2022 We’ll see if we get one more move to 4052-4100 or if we move towards 3818 or below into Christmas The CPI and FOMC will set the tone for that and we will try and react accordingly. Know your time frame and risk into big binary events. Now let’s dig into some names: AAPL will be important this week. The $145 area rejected price on Friday. $140ish is key support. It probably doesn’t do much today. But the action for the rest of the week will be key. Above $145.50 it helps the tape and below $140 it’s a headwind. TSLA did a tactical Red Dog Reversal Thursday around the $172.22 pivot. On Friday, it gave us some upside cash flow to $182.50. I sold mine. It’s not very compelling here, but will be important this week. Can it stay out of the danger zone? The weekly chart says it hits $150-$129 next year, but can it see $187 first? NFLX has been a go-to name since October. Some revisited it on Wednesday as it did a Red Dog Reversal long around the $303.13 pivot, and then sold strength into the $329 area. It did reverse to get most out. If you are still long, use $319.55 as key support. MSFT isn’t special but acts better than some other names recently. It’s worth knowing what’s happening here this week for complexion. It’s getting tighter again. $242ish is active support. $249ish is pivot resistance. GOOGL stopped out most active longs when it broke $98.90 and hit a low of $92.75 Friday. It’s an avoid. Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2022-12-12 at 8.39.43 AM

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Why Apple $144 Is Key Right Now

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We have mostly red arrows around the world to start the week as China protests dominate the narrative. Markets are starting to feel the reality of slower growth. Things might start to turn towards things being too recessionary in the year ahead. Traders want to know if SPX 4033 was the high of this active sequence or if we push into Christmas. We’ll see if SPX holds the 3962-3979 range to make it easier to stay with this active sequence. If not, it can get choppier and some active participants like me will have less risk on. SPY hit a high of $402.93 last week. I do have some SPY left on, but smaller. Today, we’ll see if the $398ish area can hold, or if we have a trend down day to put this active sequence under pressure. $395.82 is the level to watch below. QQQ has lagged for the past two months. Sometimes it participates, and other times it’s a headwind. We’ll see if it can hold the $284 area. Otherwise it can see $280.72 which has to hold to avoid trouble. Watch AAPL because it has the China headline pressure. (more on this below) Now let’s get into some of the other names I’m watching: AAPL has some talk that it will lose 6 million iPhone Pro units due to factory unrest. For today, see if it holds $144 and tries to reclaim $146.93 to take the news in stride. If not, it can become a bit of headwind. TSLA: you gotta love when a Red Dog Reversal gets you this type of upside follow-through. This morning, see if it tries to hold $176 and perhaps reclaim $180.63 to go green for cash flow. If it fails to hold $176, then that oversold broken bounce might be done. MSFT acted better than most tech names in this bounce from the October lows. Some are still long. $244ish needs to hold to keep active participants long. It gets choppier below that. AMZN is green in a sea of red and we’ll see if it can stay that way. It needs to get and stay above $94.58 to get away from the danger zone. NFLX is streaky at times with some tactical things to do. Last Tuesday, it did a Red Dog Reversal around the $282.66 pivot and saw $292+ Wednesday. $277 is key support. GOOGL seems to be acting a little better since the October lows. It hit $100+ and is trying to build a bull flag. It needs to hold the $94-$96 area to stay constructive. META hit a high of $118.72 in the recent rally. Last Tuesday, it did a small Red Dog Reversal around the $109.20 pivot. There is a flag pattern building here. It’s hard to tell if it stays intact. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-28 at 8.07.25 AM  

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How a Head & Shoulders Top Works

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In this video, Scott Redler shares how he spotted a big head & shoulders top for the S&P 500 in 2022. Link mentioned in video: Scott’s mailing list Scott shares: How the 4 big active sequences played out on the weekly SPX chart Why the head & shoulders pattern can be trickier in real life Why he thinks the market will be range-bound and tricky in 2023 How you can put the head & shoulders to work for you

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Would I Buy Disney?

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We have mostly red arrows around the world to start this holiday-shortened week. Remember the market is closed Thursday and shuts at 1 pm Friday. Europe is lower with the DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.2%, and FTSE -0.1%. Asia is lower. The Hang Seng is -1.8% but it’s had a huge move off the lows. The Fed’s Bostic said “we may be done within 75bp-100bp” this weekend. SPX futures are -24 to start the week. The question is do we hold the 3906-3935 area to keep this active sequence intact for another move above 4028? Or was that it? The next day or two will be important. DIS is gapping up on Iger’s return but I wouldn’t chase it. $102ish is resistance   Now let’s get into some of the other names I’m watching: AAPL isn’t special but gives opportunities. If this market is going to hold up this week, it will need this to be decent. This morning it’s below the $149.97 low from Friday. See if that gets reclaimed. If not, $148.56 is key. I have some calls on, but no stock. I’ll see if it’s buyable today with a signal. TSLA lost special status on 9/21-9/22 when it broke $305. It has been for sale since then. On Friday it toyed with the lows of the year as it hit $176.50. See how it handles that spot today. Elon Musk created his own problems with Twitter. The monthly chart has been super bearish for a while now. NFLX: Ryan Cohen is building an active stake but that isn’t affecting the price this morning. It hit $312 and broke $299. We”ll see if it can go red to green and reclaim Friday’s low of $287 to relieve some pressure. GOOGL hit a high of $100.14 in this oversold rally. Now it’s faltering. See if it tries to reclaim $96.37. Otherwise it can see $94 pretty fast AMZN’s bounce was lethargic. It hit a low of $92.48 That’s your new pivot support to trade against. META hit a high of $118.72 in the recent rally. Now, see if it can hold $109.80. See if it can go red-to-green today for cash flow. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-21 at 7.37.58 AM

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The Inverse Head & Shoulders on the Road to SPX 4,000

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On October 17, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson said inflation peaked, and that the S&P 500 (SPX) could rally to 4,000. If you remember that time, the mood was super bearish. So the market was taken off-guard by Wilson’s bullishness. Now when someone smart comes out bullish, I don’t just buy – I go to the charts. Because an opinion is just an opinion until the chart confirms it. That’s why I use tools like moving averages and trend lines. So let’s break down the move. First, the SPX broke below 3568 to hit a low of 3491 on October 13. That was two trading days before Wilson’s call on October 17. Next, the SPX rallied off the 3491 low and held above the 3568 where the neckline of the inverse head & shoulders was forming. The SPX then declined for 3 days into October 21, which was a massive day because there was a powerful Red Dog Reversal long signal. The SPX also cleared the descending trendline in short order after that: Next, the SPX dipped to 3698, which held. That put in the right shoulder of the inverse head & shoulders: Then we had the big CPI report on November 10. The CPI came in cooler-than-expected, which set off a round of being. The SPX ignited through 3911, which was the high on November 1. And finally, the SPX hit a high of 4028 on November 15 when the PPI report was lower-than-expected: Remember, the biggest topic on traders’ minds was inflation, so two straight light inflation readings really put the bears back on their heels. The lesson here? Listen to smart people. But match what they say against what you see in the charts. We followed this move every day in The Redler Report, which helped us find great swing longs in names like SPY, UAL, JETS, TLT, and JPM. Not every idea works, but when you get the overall trend right, things tend to go your way. So maybe you should think about joining up! Scott Redler’s Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-16 at 2.08.35 PM

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5 Big Tech Names to Watch

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SPY had a big gap and go on Thursday, giving some $385 to be long against. It cleared $390.39 to see $399.35 on Friday. We’ll see if it can digest above $393.61 to build a new flag to keep this active sequence going. The 20 day is above with a gap that might get filled up to $408ish. Now let’s dig into 5 big tech names on my radar: AAPL participated as everything ignited post-CPI. Now we’ll see if the $144 area holds to keep some commitment. The 200 day could be hard to get through above with Friday’s high at $150.01. TSLA’s bounce wasn’t great. After making a low of $177, it hit $196.52 on Friday. See if it holds $192-$194 to keep the oversold bounce going. It will be hard to get and stay above $204-$210 in the week ahead. MSFT had a better bounce pre-CPI and then was stronger than most names. It hit $247.99 Friday. Now see if it can digest above $241. AMZN had a decent bounce but these things need so much time to rebuild. Now see if it can hold the $96 area to stay a bit constructive. There’s a big gap above near $104. On Friday it hit a high of $101.19. GOOGL responded pretty well. Some news of Insider buying helped. Now see if it can digest above $93.92 to stay constructive. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-14 at 9.35.55 AM:

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4 Stocks I’m Eyeing This Week

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We have mostly red arrows around the world after a big four-week rally. Asia still doesn’t act well after China’s NBS PMI’s fell short. Hong Kong’s Q3 GDP report was soft. Developments in Russia/Ukraine are also weighing as Moscow withdrew from the grain agreement. SPX futures are -24. We hit 3905 Friday. I’d think a bit of digestion ahead of the Fed Wednesday makes sense. Holding 3862ish would be very constructive. 3803-3806 is the line in the sand for the active bulls and this active sequence. Now let’s go through 4 names I’m watching: AAPL responded very well to earnings. It gave us a way to be long as it cleared $149 to see $157.50. There is news that Foxconn will shut for Covid, but that shouldn’t change much. A little digestion above $152.50 should be constructive. Holding $154ish would even be better. AMD reports after the close tomorrow. It’s been pressured all year. We uncovered the H&S pattern helping us stay out of the way. I’m long a little into today. We’ll see if it goes green with pivot resistance at $62.72. If not, I’ll be out. COIN is after the close Thursday, We had a decent trade last week. I bought some back on Friday. We’ll see if it gets any more play prior. It needs to hold $5=69 and perhaps we can add over $73.72. TSLA gave us a very tradable move last week with a Red Dog Reversal at $202 and then another entry when it cleared $213.50. It hit the $233 area. For this week, we’ll see if it can hold Friday’s low of $216 or higher for an additional move towards $250. But we’ll take it somewhat slow. I’ll be active here if I get the signals. Positions Disclosure: *As of 8:20am ET October 31, 2022

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4 Tech Stocks on the Earnings Radar

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We have mixed markets around the world to start the week. In Asia, the Hang Seng was down 6%ish after Xi secured his third term. In Europe, the former Chancellor Sunak is the favorite after Boris pulled out. SPX futures were above 3800 last night and below 3725 early this morning. They are now firmer. We’ll see if the Inverse H&S pattern can measure a move to 3800-3900 in the next week or so. Holding 3656 keeps this active sequence intact. There are lots of big earnings this week. MSFT, GOOGL, and V are on Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is META and BA. On Thursday, it’s AAPL, AMZN, SHOP, and MRK. Now let’s go through 4 tech names that are reporting this week: AAPL cleared a small downtrend on Friday as it held $141.50 all week. I’m long and will see if it can go green and move towards $148.50 or higher pre-earnings Thursday. NFLX was a great focus last week. Some are long vs. $262 and there was a nice play Friday as it cleared $279.30 to see $290.75. I’m still long stock and I have a new call spread. The gap gets filled up to $331. Use your tier system. MSFT reports tomorrow, it will be important as it made new lows on the year. How it responds will give some clues if this rally attempt can continue. For today, see how it deals with $243 pivot resistance. GOOGL is in a troubled sector that made new lows on the year. Look at SNAP and META. It will be important to hear what it says Tuesday and how it responds. I’m staying away for now. META reports Wednesday. It’s made new lows on the year a few times in the past few months. On Friday, it came off the lows. I’m avoiding it but will see where it is Wednesday for an option play. We’ll see if it can hold above $126 to keeps some pressure off. Positions Disclosure:

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