All posts by Scott Redler
3 New Names on the Radar
We have flattish markets around the world ahead of the CPI tomorrow. Markets are trying to get comfortable with Fed expectations of a ceiling at 5.19% and a year-end 4.9% target. So far it seems like the world is handling 5% rates okay. Most experts predicted a big recession by now. SPX pulled back 100 handles of fthe 4195 highs. Does it start a downside active sequence, or is it just a digestion phase? That’s the question. We should know more tomorrow after the CPI tomorrow. L SPY hit a high of $418.31 on Feb 2 and made a low of $405 Friday. A bit of momentum was lost, but the more intermediate trend is still intact. Tomorrow’s CPI will be important. There’s risks to both longs and shorts. $410-$411 will be resistance if we rally. Now let’s dig into 3 individual names I typically don’t cover in the Morning Note: SMCI seems like it has a decent setup. Some are long vs. the 8 day down near $82ish. Others are waiting for a move and hold above $93.90ish. SSTK has a decent setup. Some are long vs. $72. Others are waiting for it to get and stay above $81.25. GILD has a nice chart. Some are long vs. $85. Others are waiting for it to get and stay above $87.18 Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-02-13 at 8.35.09 AM
Continue Reading -->META $197 Is the Level to Watch
SPX futures are -30 after hitting a high of 4195 last week. I sold the BOS account and reduced risk across all my trading accounts. Now we see what’s next. 4076-4094 is support zone number one (8 day support). The bigger area is 4015-4048. SPY gave nice opportunities long. It hit a high of $418.34 to reduce. On Friday, it gave signals to bring risk down. The first support area is $407-$408.64. If we see a move below that this week, the next big spot is $397.50ish-$401. QQQ’s hit a high of $313 last week. On Friday it closed below $306.73. Now we’ll see if there’s a 5-15-30 minute low to trade against, or if it reclaims $304.57. 8 day support is near $298ish. We have mostly red arrows around the world after a big start to 2023. Spain’s Hot CPI is putting some pressure on Europe, and most of China is lower after a holiday week. Now let’s dig into some individual names: META has a big earnings gap to be long against. This can give clues on the strength of the tape. See if it holds and up and clears $197. This will be a focus moving forward. It’s been very good to us since December. TSLA became my 2023 focus again on January 6 on the bullish engulfing candle. It hit $199 last week. In a sea of red, it’s up this morning. The SEC case was thrown out. This will remain a focus, but I did sell mine Friday. AAPL acted well post-earnings. This stock will give opportunities and clues to the tape. I’ll focus here a bit more. See if it holds $151ish or sees the $148 gap area. AMD had a strong move post-earnings. It seems like dips can be buyable if this market stays constructive. $83 is some support. $85.53 is Friday’s low. MSFT hit $263 and closed weak on Friday. It’s on the bottom of the list. See if it stays below $257.10 to fill the gap down to the $255 area. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-02-06 at 7.41.24 AM
Continue Reading -->Lucid Doubled – Now I’m doing This
We have mostly red arrows around the world after a big start to 2023. Spain’s Hot CPI is putting some pressure on Europe, and most of China is lower after their holiday week. SPX futures are -36 after hitting a high of 4094 Friday. We’ll see if the 4039 area can hold this morning with 4015 a bigger spot. The FOMC is Wednesday, with many big earnings reports in the mix — AMD, XOM, META, AAPL, GOOGL, and AMZN. SPY gave us a very tradable move as it hit a high of $408.62 before fading a bit Friday. This morning we’ll see how it handles $402ish. $400 is a bigger spot. If you are thinking there can be one more move higher this week, $408 or $410 lotto calls for Wednesday or Friday may be worth a look. Now let’s look at some individual names. LCID was a great grab Friday as our eyes were on it with the TSLA strength. It doubled intraday to take some off. I also took some home. I trimmed most of my position above $14.50 pre-market. See how it holds up. NIO hit $13.20 last week. I’m still long. If TSLA continues, this should have more room. It needs to hold $11.90. TSLA changed January 6 and became my #1 P&L driver for 2023. Many did well with call spreads into earnings or buying it vs. $154.76 the day. It hit $180.76 Friday. We’ll see how it reacts for active cash flow today. It just had a big move, so let it do some price discovery. RBLX is tight. Some are long vs. the $34 area. Others are waiting for a high-volume move above $38ish. AMD ignited above $65 a few weeks ago and cleared $72.60 Monday to see $77+ last week. It went red to green after INTC. Earnings are on Tuesday. See if can hold hold $73ish for now. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-01-30 at 7.23.09 AM
Continue Reading -->Why Tesla $136.68 Is Critical Into Earnings
We have mixed markets to start the week. We will get a ton of earnings the next two weeks. Europe is up small and most of Asia is closed for the holiday. The debate now revolves around whether we will have a hard or soft landing. And where will interest rates be at the end of 2023? These questions are important, but what’s more important is your time frame and approach. The bears growled on January 18, but then SPX held 3885 and the bulls took control. SPX cleared 3926 Friday to see 3972, keeping both sides on their toes. SPX futures are flattsh. We’ll see if 3950ish holds to keep this pattern going. Then we’ll see if the intermediate downtrend line gets cleared around 4015ish. QQQ broke its ascending channel last Wednesday but snapped back very fast to keep both sides on their toes. There has been lots of nice trades. QQQ’s cleared $277 to see $283ish Friday. We’ll see if we digest higher to keep Friday’s action in control Active support is $280ish. Watch the leaders. NFLX reacted well on Friday to help sentiment. Now let’s get into some individual names: TSLA became a “Go To Long” again on January 6, giving traders many ways to make money. On Friday it cleared $129 to get me long again. It’s up this morning to trim and trail. Let’s see how it handles last week’s high of $136.68. A move above that could mean more momentum, but remember that earnings are on Wednesday. AAPL is just a tactical trade until earnings. Last Wednesday, it gave a way to sell. And then the $133 area held to buy it back. Watch it for sentiment. $138.81 is last week’s high, and then $140ish. Earnings are next week. Today it’s up a bit. Not much to do here but watch it for market sentiment NFLX acted well after earnings Friday. Now we’ll see if it can protect the earnings gap. Swing longs need it to hold $332ish. If it can hold that for a session or so, maybe there’s a continuation trade. See if it clears the post-earnings high of $344 and watch it for risk appetites. META’s been amazing this year. It held the 8 day Thursday to get me back long. On Friday it cleared the $137 area to manage. I’ll try and stay with it, but not through earnings. GOOGL got me long Thursday as it was super strong. Someone knew the jobs cuts were coming. I held through Friday as it hit $98.30. I’ll stay with it for now. The 200 day can happen, but $99.50 is the first pivot above. Scott Redler’s Positions Dislosure as of 2023-01-23 at 7.27.50 AM
Continue Reading -->My Tesla Strategy This Morning
SPY had a nice active sequence as it cleared $382 & $386 to ignite a move to a high of $399.10 Friday. We’ll see if it can digest above $392.50 after Friday’s resilience. I sold SPY calls higher late last week to use as hedge, and I’ll continue to do that into strength. QQQ played some catch-up as it cleared $266 to see a high of $281.22. Friday. Now we’ll how it digests. If it can hold $276ish or higher the next day or so, it would be constructive for higher prices. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA absorbed some complicated news last week and came off the lows. I bought some this morning around $123 as it showed relative strength. If it can get and stay above $125.95, there’s room to $130ish. Use a tier system. AAPL reclaimed the $129-$130 area and seems on the way to $138ish. $134.92 is pivot resistance. META’s been my best swing this year. It hit $137+ from $122. Now we’ll see if it holds $133-$134 to set up again. NFLX ignited January 4 and cleared $298ish to see a high of $336 Friday. It found support at the 8 day the entire time. Earnings are on Thursday. It’s a tricky setup now. AMZN did a Red Dog Reversal around the $83.07 pivot January 6. It was tradable up to the dip buy on Friday when it hit $98.37. I took my trade off a little early. It held $93ish and as long as that holds, some will stay with it. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-01-17 at 7.42.27 AM
Continue Reading -->How I’m Trading Tesla Here and Now
We have mostly green arrows around the world as January tries to be a better month for equities. Friday’s Jobs Report created a lot of talk about a soft landing. But it’s too early to tell. The bears got pushed back when SPX cleared 3839 Friday. It was also able to pass 3878 to show a little power. CPI is Thursday and Powell speaks at 9:00 tomorrow. We can see 3958-3993 before the fundamental bears can push their narrative again. I always trim into strength with a gap in my favor to net some money. Then we can measure the action after the open. SPY cleared $382 on Friday to get me more neutral to positive. I took off my SPY puts to salvage some money Friday and I’m coming in long some risk. I’ll trim and trail but I’ll keep some because we can see $393-$396 pre-CPI Thursday. Today, we’ll see how we deal with $389.25. QQQ did a Red Dog Reversal on Friday as it reclaimed $261.26 to relieve pressure. It also cleared Thursday’s high to show some power. I’m not expecting a blockbuster move, but it could bounce to $274-$278 this week. So let’s talk Tesla (TSLA) and some other names. TSLA reclaimed $104.64 and $107.16 to get me long for an oversold bounce Friday. I already trimmed a little as it’s $116.50ish. I’ll try and stay with some. If it can clear $117.50, the next spot is $124ish. It had a big move from $305 down to $104.64 and now we’ll see what type of broken bounce it can have. AAPL broke $129 to see a low of $124.17. It was hard to make money with puts. I sold some of mine Friday because I felt a bounce can come. We’ll see how it acts today. Does it get and stay above $130.40 to help active bulls with a move to $133ish? Or does strength get sold again? META has been a good swing long from last week when it held the $122 gap pivot. I’m still in some stock plus a call spread for Friday. I’ll keep managing it and I’d trim some. AMZN did a Red Dog Reversal around the $83.07 pivot to get some long. I’ll trim into some strength, but a close above $87 could open the door to resistance near the $94 area. Scott Redler’s positions disclosure as of 2023-01-09 at 7.32.AM
Continue Reading -->Can Elon Musk Commit to Tesla?
SPY did a double top at $410 on CPI day and then again on the FOMC at $405ish. I sold a lot of calls to collect premium. My SPY puts also helped into Friday, when I sold half and made some into a put spread. We’re seeing a small bounce attempt today. The resistance #1 area is $386-$388. If we see that, I’d probably sell $393-$395 calls because I think move into year-end would be capped. QQQ’s failed to hold $295 on CPI day and has been under pressure since hitting a low of $272.67 Friday. If we see a bounce attempt today, I’d think $278ish is resistance and then we’ll have a big one around $283ish. So let’s talk Tesla (TSLA) and some other names. TSLA has been broken since September with lots of ways to stay out of the way. Last week it showed extreme relative weakness and Elon sold more shares. On Friday it was rejected into the $161 area and made another new low on the year, hitting $150.04. It’s trying to bounce a bit on the possibility of a new Twitter CEO. But it’s hard to get excited here. See if the early strength holds or fades. AAPL sold down hard last week to hit $133.73.We’ll see if today’s bounce sticks for a day or fades. $136.50-$137.50 is now resistance. NFLX filled the gap up to $332. It’s been a great vehicle for us the past two months. I’m glad we were out before Last Thursday’s news and gap down. It made a low of $286 and had a small bounce Friday. I wouldn’t chase prices. Perhaps it goes green to red today. MSFT hit $263 and sold down fast. Some got short around $253 and it hit $243ish. I’d think $249ish would reject a bounce attempt.
Continue Reading -->2 Levels to Watch in Apple Right Now
We have mixed markets around the world ahead of the CPI Tuesday and FOMC Wednesday. China is dismantling their restrictive controls, but FXI went 30% off the lows already. We have about $43 billion worth of deals with HZNP and COUP getting bought to show there are some bargains out there. SPX is about 10% off the lows, and 17% off the highs with about 3 weeks left in 2022 We’ll see if we get one more move to 4052-4100 or if we move towards 3818 or below into Christmas The CPI and FOMC will set the tone for that and we will try and react accordingly. Know your time frame and risk into big binary events. Now let’s dig into some names: AAPL will be important this week. The $145 area rejected price on Friday. $140ish is key support. It probably doesn’t do much today. But the action for the rest of the week will be key. Above $145.50 it helps the tape and below $140 it’s a headwind. TSLA did a tactical Red Dog Reversal Thursday around the $172.22 pivot. On Friday, it gave us some upside cash flow to $182.50. I sold mine. It’s not very compelling here, but will be important this week. Can it stay out of the danger zone? The weekly chart says it hits $150-$129 next year, but can it see $187 first? NFLX has been a go-to name since October. Some revisited it on Wednesday as it did a Red Dog Reversal long around the $303.13 pivot, and then sold strength into the $329 area. It did reverse to get most out. If you are still long, use $319.55 as key support. MSFT isn’t special but acts better than some other names recently. It’s worth knowing what’s happening here this week for complexion. It’s getting tighter again. $242ish is active support. $249ish is pivot resistance. GOOGL stopped out most active longs when it broke $98.90 and hit a low of $92.75 Friday. It’s an avoid. Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2022-12-12 at 8.39.43 AM
Continue Reading -->Why Apple $144 Is Key Right Now
We have mostly red arrows around the world to start the week as China protests dominate the narrative. Markets are starting to feel the reality of slower growth. Things might start to turn towards things being too recessionary in the year ahead. Traders want to know if SPX 4033 was the high of this active sequence or if we push into Christmas. We’ll see if SPX holds the 3962-3979 range to make it easier to stay with this active sequence. If not, it can get choppier and some active participants like me will have less risk on. SPY hit a high of $402.93 last week. I do have some SPY left on, but smaller. Today, we’ll see if the $398ish area can hold, or if we have a trend down day to put this active sequence under pressure. $395.82 is the level to watch below. QQQ has lagged for the past two months. Sometimes it participates, and other times it’s a headwind. We’ll see if it can hold the $284 area. Otherwise it can see $280.72 which has to hold to avoid trouble. Watch AAPL because it has the China headline pressure. (more on this below) Now let’s get into some of the other names I’m watching: AAPL has some talk that it will lose 6 million iPhone Pro units due to factory unrest. For today, see if it holds $144 and tries to reclaim $146.93 to take the news in stride. If not, it can become a bit of headwind. TSLA: you gotta love when a Red Dog Reversal gets you this type of upside follow-through. This morning, see if it tries to hold $176 and perhaps reclaim $180.63 to go green for cash flow. If it fails to hold $176, then that oversold broken bounce might be done. MSFT acted better than most tech names in this bounce from the October lows. Some are still long. $244ish needs to hold to keep active participants long. It gets choppier below that. AMZN is green in a sea of red and we’ll see if it can stay that way. It needs to get and stay above $94.58 to get away from the danger zone. NFLX is streaky at times with some tactical things to do. Last Tuesday, it did a Red Dog Reversal around the $282.66 pivot and saw $292+ Wednesday. $277 is key support. GOOGL seems to be acting a little better since the October lows. It hit $100+ and is trying to build a bull flag. It needs to hold the $94-$96 area to stay constructive. META hit a high of $118.72 in the recent rally. Last Tuesday, it did a small Red Dog Reversal around the $109.20 pivot. There is a flag pattern building here. It’s hard to tell if it stays intact. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-28 at 8.07.25 AM
Continue Reading -->How a Head & Shoulders Top Works
In this video, Scott Redler shares how he spotted a big head & shoulders top for the S&P 500 in 2022. Link mentioned in video: Scott’s mailing list Scott shares: How the 4 big active sequences played out on the weekly SPX chart Why the head & shoulders pattern can be trickier in real life Why he thinks the market will be range-bound and tricky in 2023 How you can put the head & shoulders to work for you
Continue Reading -->