All posts by Michael Comeau
No Government, No Problem: Life Is Good!
The government shut down, but the bulls are open for business, sending stocks to all-time highs. Life is GOOD on Wall Street! So let’s talk about the 10 things you need to know right now, starting with… 1. Small Caps Are Rocking HARD Yes, the big caps are off to a great start this quarter, with 45 SPX stocks making record highs in the past 3 days. But the real story is the small caps rocking hard, with IWM outperforming SPY and QQQ by a decent margin. We’re also seeing strength in other rate sensitive groups like utilities and biotech. Why? Because the market’s still banking on rate cuts, which are good for small caps (at least according to conventional wisdom). The CME’s Fedwatch Tool shows a 97% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in October: Now, this begs an obvious question: could the October rate cut create a massive sell-the-news reaction? The answer is yes. Of course. But if everyone’s expecting a sell-the-news… maybe we just keep on rocking? 2. Next Friday Is Now Important Unfortunately, the October 3 Nonfarm Payrolls report has been delayed to the 10th, so we have to wait for one more week to confirm what we know – the job market stinks. And judging by the action in the small caps, the market is behaving like we got an awful jobs number that gives the Fed more room to cut. Or maybe the bulls are taking the attitude that “if the bad economic data isn’t coming out, the economy is actually good.” Who knows? But let’s look at my new #1 economic indicator: 3. The Slop Bowl Recession Is real Yes yes, I know the stock market is not the same as the economy. But if people can’t afford slop bowls, we have a problem. (a slop bowl is a mash-up of food from a fast casual restaurant, usually served in a bowl) Chipotle (CMG), Cava (CAVA), and Sweetgreen (SG) have been destroyed this year for various reasons including slowing sales and rising costs. And I’m calling this chart my “Slop Bowl Indicator:” If people can’t afford burrito bowls, what can they afford? 4. Bitcoin Is Going WILD Bitcoin hit a new record high above $123,000 on Friday as the market embraces an anti-establishment theme in the wake of the government shutdown. Ethereum and Solana also posted solid gains, though they are still below their own all-time highs. Will we see catch-up trades? Maybe – so put ’em on the radar. But do you know who’s still the boss in terms of performance? THIS: 5. Gold Is Still Dominating For all the talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum domination and crypto treasury companies, did you notice that gold is still kicking butt? It’s outperforming both the flagship cryptos with a 47% gain this year. And the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up a crazy 127%: What can we say? It’s been an amazing time for gold bugs, who waited for this type of action forever. 6. The Ultimate Trump Trade RAGES On It’s been a while since we checked in on the “Ultimate Trump Trade” a.k.a. the basket of stocks that benefit from financial market volatility and rising stock/crypto prices, including: Robinhood (HOOD) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Coinbase (COIN) Charles Schwab (SCHW) Webull (BULL) They are having an amazing year, topped off by Robinhood’s 301% gain: By the way, did you know that Robinhood is the #1 performing S&P 500 stock of 2025? And just a few years ago, it was left for dead. Congrats to those who held on. 7. The Earnings Are Coming Aside from next week’s economic data (namely Powell speaking Thursday & NFP on Friday), the next big thing for the market is Q3 earnings season. The fireworks start Tuesday October 14 with JP Morgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C) all hitting in the morning. According to FactSet, Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow by 8.0%, up from 7.3% on June 30. So estimates have gone up. In recent quarters, estimates were crazy low, making it easy for companies to beat forecasts. And S&P 500 earnings crushed expectations overall. Now we have the opposite situation. I don’t like this. Not one bit. 8. Cathie Wood Is Having a Heck of a Year Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is the hot strategist of the moment, which is well-deserved because of his amazing calls. But Cathie Wood, hero of the post-pandemic bull market is killing it. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 57% year-to-date: Tesla (TSLA), which is down year-to-date, is almost 12% of the ETF. So it was a boat anchor hanging from ARKK’s neck in terms of performance. And ARKK still killed it. Why? Because of big bets on winners like Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), Shopify (SHOP), and Palantir (PLTR). Well done! 9. It’s a Great Year for Garbage One of our favorite screens to run in Koyfin is for companies with these attributes: $2.5 billion or higher market cap $100 million in sales or less In other words, companies that don’t even have sales, let alone profits – that are highly valued in the stock market. We came up with 34 stocks and these are how they are doing in 2025: 28 are up and just 6 are down The average return is +95% (this includes the losers) Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc. (BMNR) is in #1 with a 630% gain, while the President’s Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) is in last place with a 49% loss. Here’s the full table: 10. Options Traders Need to Stop Doing THIS Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading recently sat down on the T3 Alpha Show to discuss what he learned as a trader for Goldman Sachs and on the CBOE Floor. If you want to stop losing big money in options, you must listen to Scott:
Continue Reading -->We Want Rate Cuts!
We closed out another fun week in the markets, and it’s time to look ahead. Because traders have one thing on their minds: rate cuts! 1. Traders Are Still Pricing in Rate Cuts Following Friday’s in-line PCE Price Index report, traders were pricing in an 85.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in October. This is down slightly from last week. But next week, we get several key employment data points: Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings Wednesday: ADP Nonfarm Employment Thursday: Jobless Claims Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls If labor markets continue to deteriorate, don’t be surprised if that number goes to 100%. 2. Equities Are Pricing in Lower Rates This quarter, we’ve seen notable strength in biotech, semiconductors, gold, small caps, and regional banks. That implies traders have been bracing for lower rates, in a classic example of pricing moving before the fundamentals change. And interestingly, we looked at our universe of 30 ETFs, and only 2 are negative in Q3: consumer staples (XLP) and natural gas (UNG): Data: Koyfin 3. Martin Shkreli Put Quantum Stocks on the Hot Seat Hands down, this is the most entertaining video I’ve seen this year. Pharma bro and Wu-Tang Clan antagonist Martin Shkreli laid the smack down on quantum computing stocks like IonQ in an intense debate with Shay Boloor of Futurum Equities. It was released months ago, but went viral on Twitter/X this week. WARNING: you may be tempted to short quantum stocks after you watch this. And depending on the market environment, that may be hazardous to your health. If you’re long ANY quantum computing stocks, please watch this video. Thank me later when you sell all your stocks.@MartinShkreli MOGGED. Shay is in fucking TEARS @ the end. Hard to not take out a mammoth short position after watching this lol.$QBTS $RGTI $IONQ $ARQQ $QUBT pic.twitter.com/bz8iyTORm3 — Zoomer 🧢 (@zoomyzoomm) September 24, 2025 And speaking of quantum… 4. Companies With No Sales Are Doing Great One of our favorite screens is for companies with a $2.5 billion market cap and under $100 million sales. In other words, high valuation and little to no sales. We found 18 US stocks fitting that criteria that are up more than 50% in Q3: The leader of the pack is the super-volatile QMMM Holdings (QMMM), which is up over 7,600% this quarter after pivoting to becoming a crypto treasury bet: And speaking of crypto Treasury bets… 5. Tom Lee Explains the Power of Crypto Treasury Companies A common question among traders and investors is “why buy a crypto treasury company like MicroStrategy (MSTR) or Bitminer (BMNR) rather than Bitcoin/Ethereum?” Tom Lee of Fundstrat explains: Tom Lee explaining why he thinks you should buy a Ethereum Treasury company over just buying Ethereum pic.twitter.com/rHyYCAwLZi — Treasury Edge (@TreasuryEdge) September 24, 2025 6. Intel Is a Star Intel (INTC) has been on fire as of late thanks to a $5 billion investment from Nvidia (NVDA), and speculation of some type of partnership with Apple (AAPL). It’s now up 76% year-to-date. And it would be the #1 stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2025… if it wasn’t kicked out last year. In fact, Intel is #16 in the SPX this year… more than doubling Nvidia’s return. 7. Investors Are Still Bullish For the second week in a row, 41.7% of investors are bullish according to the AAII Sentiment Survey: There was not a single bullish reading from August 6 to September 10. So there is a chance investors turned bullish right at the top. Of course, the indices are barely off the highs so let’s not get carried away just yet. 8. Tesla (TSLA) Took the Mag 7 Lead – and It’s Still Hated Tesla took off like a rocket in September, and is up 31%, crushing its Mag 7 brethren: Wedbush Morgan’s Dan Ives hiked his Tesla price target to $600 based on AI growth potential, making him the biggest bull on the street. But here’s a fun fact: the average Tesla target price is just $336.18. That means the average analysts thinks Tesla will DROP by 23%. Then again, Tesla is an island unto itself and often seems completely detached from its fundamentals. 9. Meet James Rich Young: Trading Prodigy and Mentorship Teacher In this episode of The T3 Alpha Show, I sat down with James “Rich” Young to learn about his meteoric rise in trading and social media. Want to learn from James? Check out the Pristine Mentorship with James Young and Sami Abusaad.
Continue Reading -->Meet James Rich Young: Trading Prodigy
In the latest episode of The T3 Alpha Show, we introduce you to James Rich Young, co-Leader of the Pristine Mentorship Program. James went from attending the Mentorship to moderating the Pristine Active Trader VTF® in a matter of months. That’s unlike many traders who struggles for years before having any success at all. James shares: What made him leave his prior career to pursue trading How he succeeded in trading so quickly How mastering video games like Goldeneye prepared him for day trading Whether new traders have to learn the hard way (by losing big money) How he build an amazing YouTube channel with over 87,000 subscribers The importance of having a great mentor The reason he pursued powerlifting How traders can achieve work-life balance Why you must be careful about the goals you set His favorite Wall Street movie Whether “Rich” is actually his real middle name Want to learn directly from James? GO HERE NOW.
Continue Reading -->Introducing The T3 Alpha Show podcast
Yes, we finally have a podcast: The T3 Alpha Show! Host Michael Comeau connects you with leading traders, investors, and industry executives to provide a mix of education and entertainment. So far, we’ve published 5 episodes so far with special guests: Sam Rabinowitz: an aspiring trader who tried to get a Wall Street Job by holding up a sign Sami Abusaad: our Director of Education who went from bored CPI to top pro trader Charlie Moon: a former professional poker player who harnesses AI to supercharge his trading Scott Bauer: a former Goldman Sachs and CBOE floor trader that’s sharing his pro options trading strategies with you Rob Koyfman: founder and CEO of Koyfin, a leading financial data platform with 500,000+ users Here’s how to find us: The T3 Alpha Show on Spotify The T3 Alpha Show on YouTube The T3 Alpha Show Website (under construction) We hope you listen and subscribe!
Continue Reading -->8 Things You Need to Know: The Fed Is Dead Ahead
1. The Fed Is Dead Ahead Buckle up buttercups, because the FOMC Rate Decision is dead ahead. Following this week’s CPI and PPI reports and last week’s stinker of a jobs report, the CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut. As you can see on the right side of this chart, the odds show a 96.4% chance of a 25 bps cut. The odds of a 50 ups cut are a mere 3.6%. But of course, traders are looking for guidance on the future rate trajectory, which feels like a mystery at this point. But what are equities saying? 2. Rate Sensitive Stocks Are Rocking Homebuilders and small caps are rocking in Q3. Look at these numbers: The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) is up 17.9%, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is up 10.4%. Meanwhile, SPY is up just 6.4%. So traders are absolutely pricing in a more dovish Fed. 3. Oracle Stole Nvidia’s Crown Oracle (ORCL) popped 36% on Wednesday after the company said AI-driven cloud revenue will hit $144 billion by FY2030. That’s more than 7X what it will make this year, taking the entire trading and investing world by storm. The stock is now up 77% YTD, knocking Nvidia off the top of the megacap AI heap. And Oracle estimates are going through the roof. According to Koyfin data: The FY2028 consensus revenue estimate went from $99.6 billion to $114 billion. That’s a 14% bump OVERNIGHT. The FY2029 consensus revenue estimate went from $120.4 billion to $165 billion. An increase of 37%. We haven’t seen anything like this since Nvidia (NVDA) in late 2023, when the AI story was just emerging. 4. The 90’s Are BACK Speaking of Oracle, have you noticed how many 1990’s stock market darlings are up huge in 2025? These are the best performing S&P 500 stocks of 2025: Western Digital (WDC) Micron (MU) CVS (CVS) General Electric (GE) Corning (GLW) Lam Research (LRCX) Broadcom (AVGO) KLA Tencor (KLAC) Jabil (JBL) Most of these names have ties to AI, data storage, and the power grid, so it makes sense. Plus, Old Navy is pushing Nirvana shirts and the Backstreet Boys sold out The Sphere in Las Vegas… so the 90’s really are back. 5. Tim Walz Took on Tesla and Failed… Again Minnesota Governor Tim Walz scored an 8/10 with this Tweet making fun of Elon Musk losing his status as the world’s richest person: https://t.co/piZWl3Cl9B pic.twitter.com/m4VAeh3uHv — Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) September 10, 2025 Back in March, Tim Walz put in the bottom when he celebrated the weakness in Tesla stock. That was when Sami Abusaad infamously bought 2,500 Tesla shares. And you know what? Tesla Tim gave his second buy signal of the year – the skyrocketed following the Tweet we just showed you: As the proud owner of 500 Tesla shares, thank you Tim! Actually, that was a typo. I have 5 shares of Tesla. Carry on… 6. The Bears Are On Patrol The AII Sentiment Survey shows that just 28.0% of investors are bullish on the stock market for the next 6 months. This is the 6th straight week of below-average bullishness. And it’s the lowest bullish reading since April 30. This is great news because it means people are still on the sidelines. 7. OpenDoor Is the #1 Short King Opendoor (OPEN) stock skyrocketed this week after it named Shopify (SHOP) COO Kaz Nejatian as CEO. Opendoor cofounder and new chairman Keith Rabois told CNBC “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them.” Nejatian’s claim to fame is eliminating almost all meetings at Shopify so people can get stuff done. So this looks like a match made in heaven. We used Koyfin to screen for US equities with 15%+ short interest and a market cap over $500 million. And Opendoor is #1 by a mile with its 467% gain: 8. This Might Be the Hungriest Kid on Wall Street T3 just launched its first-ever podcast “The T3 Alpha Show.” Our first guest is Sam Rabinowitz, a young buck hungry for a job on Wall Street. So he physically walked to Wall Street to get his shot by holding a sign. This is his story:
Continue Reading -->Just 31.7% of Traders Use AI, Survey Says
Do Traders Use ChatGPT and Other AI Tools? According to a recent survey of our community… not really. We emailed our fans asking a simple question: Are you using AI in your trading in any way? 379 traders answered the question. 31.7% said yes, they are using AI tools like ChatGPT in trading. And 68.3% said no. Why Aren’t More Traders Using AI? Overwhelmingly, traders who aren’t using AI offered some variation of “I don’t know how.” Here’s a sample of unedited survey responses: “Don’t know how to. I am used to reading charts myself…” “No idea of where to find” “Myself. Learning curve.” “Don’t have the knowledge” “The few AI trading I came across was too complicated.” “Don’t know how to use it” “Unfamiliar how to use effectively” This shows there is a lack of education regarding AI in trading, or at the very least, a lack of awareness. Some respondents also have a lack of trust in AI tools, and the companies behind them: “haven’t seen any AI tools that I think will help. they might be available I am just not aware” “Glitches and potential losses” “Desire to remain off the grid in terms of ongoing info tracking, hacking, etc. Don’t trust AI completely as it’s used maliciously too much “ “Don’t see how it could be useful for me to use it for trading. I see how firms with millions of dollars could have teams of phd’s using it.” We also asked those who don’t use AI in trading “What could make you start using AI?” The answers mostly revolved around proof and education. Here’s a sample of unedited responses: “High degree of confidence that AI is not going to hallucinate” “Demo on how it would work and help” “Seeing how it works and if it works consistently!” “I would have to clearly understand how it would work for me and make money with less effort and greater results.” “Teach me how to use it and implement it into my trading platform” “Clear evidence of consistent lower risk and higher gain” “If I could trust it, but I don’t know enough about it to know what that would entail.” So it seems like more traders would use AI if they had proof it helps, and a clear path for learning. But what about the traders who are using AI? What AI Tools Are Traders Using? We asked traders who are using AI “Which AI tools do you use in your trading?” Here are the most commonly mentioned tools, in order of mentions (most to fewest): ChatGPT Grok Perplexity Gemini Claude How Are Traders Using AI? We asked the “Yes” respondents “How do these tools help you?” The answers largely fell into 5 categories: Information and Research: finding top-performing stocks, dividend dates, YTD percentages, revenue increases, company research, fundamentals, technical setups, heavily followed stocks, categorizations, correlations, betas, news, and summarizing reports/data. Analysis and Ideas: generating option ideas, backtesting, analyzing charts, creating possible scenarios and reasoning models, finding bullish sentiment, custom queries for trends and levels, trade review, strategy analysis, and identifying shared positions among traders. Time-Saving and Efficiency: optimizing backtesting and script writing, parsing information, bulk data generation and refinement, fast and quick information retrieval, reducing manual legwork, speeding up organization, and record-keeping. Decision Support: making better decisions, double-checking decisions, and acting as a thinking partner for swing trade ideas. Trade Execution Support: Finding entries and timing, selecting expiry, stops, and limit targets, sifting trading ideas. And here are a few specific answers (unedited) we found interesting: “AI to me is research, learning, and idea-bouncing without bias or judgment. I upload charts for Wyckoff and pattern recognition help (wedges, triangles, flags, etc.), and I use it to bounce swing trade ideas as a thinking partner — never as a trade signal generator. Sometimes I’ll reverse engineer a pro’s trade I didn’t fully understand, and AI helps me break it down step by step. What makes it invaluable is education: it explains concepts in multiple ways until they finally click.” “Be more disciplined, find stocks, compare stocks, define risk, suggest tier and trim, keeps track of watch list. Logging trades. Plans the news, interpret technicals, summarize news” “It’s the perfect data finder among the emotional outpouring. It’s unbiased and can put together trends.” “Optimize backtesting and script writing mainly with some help in parsing information from the tools I use” “Ideas for investing, and lots of calculations and forward projecting with my Risk parameters.” What Do Traders Want from AI? Finally, we asked current AI users “What do you wish AI could do for you?” There was a huge range of answers, falling into these categories: Prediction and Forecasting: Users want AI to predict future market prices, such as tomorrow’s market movers, the impact of interest rates on stocks, and accurate forecasts for detailed decision-making approaches. Automated Trading/Recommendations: many traders want AI tools to scan databases for optimal entries, set stops, and targets, generate option ideas, execute trades based on user-defined rules, create specific charts with indicators, suggest trading systems, identify high-probability stock moves, and find setups. Enhanced Analysis: many traders want AI to analyze charts on multiple timeframes, plot price points in relation to news, analyze news for trading probabilities, provide solid market analysis, perform trade journaling analysis, analyze strategies and setups with suggestions/corrections, and pick top stocks in sectors based on various parameters. Performance Improvement: traders want AI to improve their P&L in many ways, like minimizing losses, improving trading discipline, findind better trades, and providing a competitive edge against high-frequency trading. Full Automation: some traders want AI to take care of the entire process from idea generation to entry to exit. Here are some unedited individual answers we found interesting: “See the future. For example: interest rates will probably go down in the next few months. If ai could look ahead and see this and then analyze which stocks might benefit the most from this in the future.” “Pick the top stock in each sector
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: The Job Market Stinks
Serious about markets? This is what you need to know: 1. The Jobs Market Stinks For the second straight month, the BLS dropped a crappy nonfarm payrolls report with downward revisions to prior readings. And immediately, traders started pricing a 100% probability of a September rate cut, with an 11.8% chance of a 50 bps cut, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. That wasn’t the only disappointing employment data point this week. We also had misses on: ADP Nonfarm Employment ISM Manufacturing Employment ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Initial Jobless claims The job market stinks. And this has traders thinking about… 2. Revenge of the Small Caps For years, small cap rallies have failed and failed again. But a rebound is starting to feel real. Growing expectations for Fed rate cuts pushed up rate-sensitive stocks on Friday, including small caps. And the Russell 2000 is now up 9.6% in Q3, more than doubling the SPX’s performance. We also saw big strength in housing stocks, with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) up nearly 2%. And XHB is now up over 24% over the past 3 months, so traders are already pricing in an improving housing market. But, one high-profile stock is looking pretty sad: 3. Nvidia Lost Its Shine Last week, you learned about Nvidia’s growing “awareness problem.” Nvidia’s earnings beats keep getting smaller because analysts have boosted estimates so much. So those upside surprises have lost their oomph. And then this week, Broadcom (AVGO) announced a $10 billion AI chip deal with an undisclosed customer. The word on the street is that ChatGPT maker OpenAI is the mystery buyer. The street viewed this as a market share loss for Nvidia, so the stock showed relative weakness Friday. So Nvidia is in the penalty box for the first time since the release of the DeepSeek AI model, which was allegedly so efficient that it would hurt demand for AI chips. (didn’t happen) 4. Sydney Sweeney Turned Up the Heat on Cracker Barrel A month ago, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) came under fire for its “Great Jeans” ad campaign starring Sydney Sweeney. Mainstream media critics hated the campaign. Young denim buyers loved it, and American Eagle’s strong earnings report sent the stock higher than Ozzy circa 1982. So for now, American Eagle is the champion of “Culture War Earnings Season.” The only question we have is did Ms. Sweeney get paid in stock? If she did, she made the trade of the year. Pelosi-esque, if you will. Next up is Cracker Barrel (CBRL), which has come under fire for alienating its core customers with its modern rebrand. If the cultural tide is shifting the way it looks, Cracker Barrel’s next earnings report (should be around 9/19) could be a big ol’ mess. 5. There Is a Lack of Faith in the Market Despite the SPX hovering near all-time highs, and markets pricing in a September rate cut, there is little trust in this market. The AAII Sentiment Survey came in at just 32.7% bullish this week. That’s the 5th straight week of below-average bullishness. But this is healthy for the market. Because it implies there is still capital on the sidelines ready to be deployed. 6. Earnings Estimates May Be Too High Factset reports that analysts raised estimates slightly for S&P 500 companies for Q3. This is a big turnaround for Wall Street. During the last 20 quarters, analysts CUT estimates by 1.0% on average in the first 2 months of a quarter. But this time they are RAISING numbers. This is bad bad bad. In recent quarters, companies smashed estimates because the bar was so low. The higher estimates go, the harder it is to come by beats. Which you just learned is Nvidia’s biggest problem. And estimates have risen most in tech. +4.4% to be exact. 7. The Yoga Pants Economy Is in Freefall Lululemon (LULU) has been in freefall all year, and got destroyed on Friday after cutting guidance again. So middle-to-upper-income consumers are tightening their wallets. One must wonder… are fellow “yoga pants demographic” stocks like Starbucks (SBUX) and Target (TGT) destined for lousy earnings in coming quarters? The job market can’t be helping, and these names have been underperforming as it is: 8. Gold Is In Chainsaw Mode It’s been a banner year for gold bugs. And on Monday, GLD cut through $317 resistance like a chainsaw through butter: And it hit a record high at $331.44 Friday. Why? It’s a perfect storm. We have economic fears, geopolitical concerns, a weak dollar, and central bank/ETF demand. I’ve made fun of the gold bugs many times. Now I wish I was one. Gold bugs: pic.twitter.com/ejyEKIQfqv — T3 Live (@t3live) September 5, 2025 9. You May Be Ready to Be a Sultan! JR Romero just launched a brand service called “Sultans of Swing Trading.” You can see a sneak preview of how he sets up a swing trading watch list here: 10. Let’s Remember Terence Stamp Legendary British actor Terence Stamp passed away two weeks ago, and shame on us for not mentioning him. Because he had a memorable turn as Gordon Gekko’s nemesis Larry Wildman in “Wall Street.” “I could break you mate..” never sounded so good.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: Nvidia’s Big Problem
We’re closing out August and headed into Labor Day weekend, so let’s look ahead at the 10 things you need to know about the market right now, starting with: 1. Nvidia Has an Awareness Problem Right now, you’re yelling out loud “well everyone knows about Nvidia.” Yes. That is the freaking problem. The entire investing universe is aware of Nvidia’s epic AI-driven growth story. Wall Street caught up, and estimates have skyrocketed. And the beats are getting smaller. Nvidia reported strong numbers Wednesday, but delivered its smallest revenue beat since the launch of ChatGPT ten quarters ago: The upside surprises keep getting smaller – not good for a stock that more than doubled off the April lows. Yes, we know this is partly because of China. But that doesn’t make the situation good. 2. Investors Do Not Trust the Rally The latest AAII Sentiment survey shows that just 34.6% of investors are bullish. This is the 4th straight week of bearish readings. This is very positive. Because it implies some people are still on the sidelines – even with the $SPX just hitting yet another record high at 6,508. Timing the market on sentiment readings is very tricky business, especially outside of extreme levels. But this current 34.6% reading is much healthier than a super-positive 45%+ reading. 3. Traders Are Still Banking on a September Rate Cut Traders are pricing in an 86.9% probability of a September rate cut following Friday’s in-line PCE Price Index report. But what could lock it in? Next Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The last one was an all-time stinker thanks to lower revisions of prior readings. And as a result of traders’ expecting a more dovish Fed… 4. Small Caps Have Been Kicking Butt Traders have been waiting for small caps to rally since Moses wore short pants. And by golly, the small cap surge is finally here. IWM was up 7.1% in August vs. a 1.9% gain in SPY. Conventional wisdom tells us that rate-sensitive stocks rally in advance of an easing Fed, so this makes sense. And speaking of rate sensitive, have you seen the homebuilders this month? They were up over 11%. 5. Culture War Earnings Season Is Coming to a Theater Near You Two of the biggest business stories of August 2025 were American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans” ad campaign, and Cracker Barrel’s (CBRL) comically off-kilter rebranding, which it just reversed. American Eagle stirred up memories of Calvin Klein’s controversial (and massively successful) early ads with Brooke Shields. Cracker Barrel was accused of going woke and forgetting its core customer base. But guess what? American Eagle reports earnings on Wednesday September 3. And Cracker Barrel should hit around September 19. Note: both companies’ quarters ended on August 3 (before these controversies), so their outlooks will be critical. So we might see if and how people voted with their wallets. 6. It’s a Banner Year for the Metals Gold has been ramping hard the past few days, and looks ready to blast through resistance at GLD $317: Gold has been a massive outperformer in 2025 with a 30%+ gain. And it looks like it wants to keep pumping higher. Interestingly, Silver (SLV) has done even better with a 37% pop. And the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is crushing everything with a 51% gain. Heavy metal thunder, indeed. 7. Ethereum Got Tested Ethereum has been a superstar this year thanks to regulatory tailwinds, institutions becoming more crypto-friendly, companies like Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMRN) sucking up supply, and good old-fashioned momentum. But the #2 cryptocurrency just got tested. Ethereum just exceeded its 2021 highs by a hair to set a new record at $4,958. Was that a breakout failure just as the world seemed to rally behind Ethereum as the next big long-term theme? Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has been among the biggest Ethereum cheerleaders. His haters want him to be wrong about this: 8. Next Week Won’t Be as Boring As You Think The market is closed Monday for Labor Day. But there’s still plenty going on. Aside from the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, there’s: Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings & Salesforce (CRM) earnings Thursday: ADP Employment, Broadcom (AVGO) and Lululemon (LULU) earnings. So we’ll get clues on the job market, AI chip demand, and whether consumers can still afford fancy yoga pants. Here’s the full calendar: 9. Solar Stocks Are Shining Pardon my pun. Sami Abusaad has been pounding the table on solar stocks for weeks: His favorite has been Solar Edge (SEDG). Look at this beauty of a chart: It looks ready to take off, right? 10. JR Delivered an EPIC Lesson & Rant On Thursday afternoon, JR dropped an wild stream of truth bombs about how you can find your edge as a trader. Want to win big in the markets? Watch this twice:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: A Jackson Hole-in-One
Let’s skip the preambles. You know what everyone cares about this week: 1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell Hit a Jackson Hole-In-One Traders were itching for a dovish Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Their dreams came true. Powell said “downside risks to employment are rising” and acknowledged that the economic picture “may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” In other words, the Fed may cut if things get worse. The result? The SPX took off like a rocket to get within striking range of all-time highs. And rate sensitive stocks like small caps, regional banks, and homebuilders outperformed, big time. 2. A September Rate Cut to Remember? As of Friday afternoon, traders were pricing in an 89.3% probability of a September rate cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. This is up from 75% Thursday, and 58% one month ago. This makes the next nonfarm payrolls report a critical one. The July report was a mess because of large downward revisions to the May and June readings. Another sloppy report could make traders gear up for an even more dovish Fed, and also a weaker economy. 3. Housing Stocks Knew All Along On August 20, homebuilding stocks were ripping and I asked a simple question: Could markets be sniffing out rate cuts already? In hindsight, the answer is yes. Because the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has been gently gliding higher in the face of major concerns about the housing market. So that’s what the smart money has been up to… 4. Nvidia (NVDA) May Be in Danger. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are Wednesday after the close, and traders are bracing for an 11th straight earnings beat. The stock is up 105% from the April lows, aided by big capex spending plans from the likes of Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META). However, post-earnings reactions are all over the place the past few quarters, so tread carefully if you’re placing a bet: With expectations so skewed to the upside, there is an element of danger here. 5. Nvidia’s Not the Only One Nvidia’s not the only tech name reporting next week. We also have: MongoDB (MDB) Crowdstrike (CRWD) Snowflake (SNOW) Dell (DELL Marvell (MRVL) Alibaba (BABA) These names cover a decent spectrum of the tech universe, so keep ’em on your screen. Here’s the full calendar for the week: 6. Ethereum Is THE Momentum Superstar Ethereum was up 13% on Friday, and is now up over 200% from the April lows, crushing Bitcoin: The FT reported that the EU is exploring Ethereum and Solana as a basis for a digital euro. And plenty of market strategists have been throwing out wild Ethereum price targets. Standard Chartered recently upped its forecast to $7,500, and FundStrat’s Tom Lee said today that “Ethereum is arguably the biggest macro trade for the next 10-15 years.” Ethereum is arguably the biggest macro trade for the next 10-15 years 😍 Tickers: $BMNR $GRNY https://t.co/iDXtNmoMJY — Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) August 22, 2025 And major Ethereum holder Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), of which Tom is chairman, popped 15%. 7. Cathie Wood’s “Secret ETF” Is Kicking @$$ Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is kicking butt, up 35% this year thanks to big bets on winners like Coinbase (COIN), Tempus AI (TEM), and Shopify (SHOP). But she has an even bigger winner in the lesser-known Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), which as you’d think, is levered even more heavily to booming fintech stocks like Robinhood (HOOD) and SoFI (SOFI). Why is ARKF doing so well? A perfect storm of strong financial markets, a dovish Fed, and a favorable regulatory environment. Keep it on the radar. 8. Investors Are Bearish For the third week in a row, the AAII sentiment survey showed that investors are bearish. This bearishness set the stage for Powell’s dovish turn at Jackson Hole. Because you have to imagine that lots of bears rushed in to avoid getting left behind. 9. Cracker Barrel Got Cracked Casual dining chain Cracker Barrel (CBRL) got slammed this week after unveiling its new branding. This: Led to this: So now Cracker Barrel’s next earnings report is suddenly a big deal. Because so many people want to see if the controversy kills sales. Kind of like American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) after its controversial “Good Jeans” ad campaign with Sydney Sweeney. 10. JR Romero Will Lead You Through Nvidia Earnings Week Last week JR Romero said “garbage stocks” are working in this market. And he was right as small caps skyrocketed Friday after Powell’s dovish twist. Want to trade with JR for a week? He’s opening up his Momentum Express VTF® for free August 25-29. It’s bound to a be a big week with Nvidia (NVDA) on the earnings calendar! Sign up here.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know: Trump’s Inside Man
Wow! What a week! We just saw: The dip buyers achieve a massive victory Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook commit to a $100 billion investment in US manufacturing Palantir (PLTR) cement its status as #1 momentum leader Hims & Hers (HIMS) disappoint on earnings and… (please insert your own obvious joke here) A shocking rally in Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), which may be our new super-spec champ President Trump nominate his buddy Stephen Miran to temporarily fill the vacant seat on the Federal Reserve board New tariffs go into effect Sydney Sweeney create a fascinating technical pattern in American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) stock Record highs in Gold And MORE! So it’s time for the 10 things you need to know right now so you can be the genius at the barbecue. Starting with… 1. President Trump Is Going Lock, Stock and Barrel on the Fed President Trump has lobbied the Fed to cut rates, going so far (or so low) as to use the nickname “Too Late Powell” to attack the current Fed Chair. But Powell’s term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump gets to pick the replacement. And everyone with a brain is asking the obvious question: Who on Earth would take the job other than a Trump loyalist? Somebody like Stephen Miran — who could be Trump’s “inside man” on the current board until January, when the temporary board membership endd. So perhaps another rate cycle is inevitable, because the President is moving on on the Fed lock, stock and barrel. 2. Next Week’s CPI and PPI Reports Are Big We are headed into a pivotal week with the July CPI & PPI reports. Traders are now pricing in an 89.4% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME’s Fedwatch tool. Odds skyrocketed after the lousy nonfarm payrolls report last week. So CPI and/or PPI had better not come in hot. Yes, the FOMC tends to eye the PCE Price Index more, but the market could still be freaked by hot inflation numbers. Because that could mean stagflation. 3. A Snoozefest Is Not Impossible The CPI and PPI should push the market around, and we should have a stream of funky trade headlines. But, the calendar is pretty light otherwise: So there’s always the chance we brace for volatility… and we just flop around. But let’s zero in on one of next week’s more interesting earnings names… 4. Could CoreWeave Squeeze? AI hyperscaler CoreWeave (CRWV) has been one of 2025’s more interesting IPOs. Everyone hated it when it came public at $40. Three months laster, it was at $187 as the AI megatrend came back in style. It crushed estimates on its first quarterly report three months ago. And analysts are indifferent, with 5 buy ratings out of 22 total ratings: Could the stage be set for a mega rally if CoreWeave rallies? Because we can think of another stock where the analysts go “meh” but the growth is unreal: 5. Palantir’s (PLTR) Growth Is Unreal Palantir dropped another monster earnings beat on Monday. And it’s the #1 stock in the S&P 500 for the second year in a row, gaining over 145% in 2025. It’s far beyond the #2 stock, GE Vernova (GEV), which is up 96%. As with CoreWeave, Wall Street isn’t aboard the Palantir train. Just 4 of 25 cover analysts rate Palantir as a buy – despite a borderline absurd growth streak. Since going public in 2020, Palantir revenues have never declined quarter-over-quarter. Every single quarter was better than the one before: 6. Ethereum Might Slam Through $4,000 So why did Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) rally over 60% this week? Simple. It’s the largest holder of crypto currency Ethereum. Inner Circle’s David Prince explains the “personality” pushing this name: $BMNR is now up over 50% from @epictrades1 entry last week 📈 Why has this been his crypto focus lately? David says it’s all about the personalities involved with the company. Join the Inner Circle: https://t.co/ihjWyUCC4q pic.twitter.com/dU3lofmgOY — T3 Live (@t3live) August 8, 2025 And Ethereum is on a tear, threatening to slam through $4,000: If that happens, traders may anticipate a move to the $4,868 all-time high. Stay tuned. 7. Keep This Biotech Name on the Radar On Wednesday, Avidity Biosciences (RNA) surged 26% on positive FDA news. But, JR Romero sees even more upside — and he also shares other names he likes in this video: 8. Sydney Sweeney Created a Fascinating Pattern in This Stock American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) skyrocketed last week after unveiling its “Great Jeans” ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney. But “The Sydney Surge” flamed out fast and the stock is compressing in a sideways wedge: There’s a big debate as to how much this new campaign is actually driving sales. We’ll have to wait until earnings in early September to find out. Still… doesn’t this stock look ready to explode? Or implode? 9. Gold Is on the Warpath Gold hit record highs on Friday, and the GLD ETF is now up 29% year-to-date, putting it in third place on the 2025 ETF leaderboard: Gold is rallying for all sorts of reasons ranging from geopolitical concerns to inflation fears to central bank buying, etc. So it’s been a great year for digital gold a.k.a. cryptocurrencies – and real gold. Here’s a chart of GLD vs. the IBIT and ETHE ETFs this year: 10. How to Scan for Winning Trades At Warp Speed It might take you hours to analyze a single chart. It takes Sami seconds. See how he scans through charts are warp speed: P.S. Did you know that Sami’s Pristine Mentorship is open for registration? Go here to learn more.
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