All posts by Michael Comeau
10 Things You Need to Know – The Next Megatrend?
We closed out an über-busy week highlighted by record stock prices, huge tech earnings beats, one of the wildest IPOs in history, and an awful jobs report. And oh yeah, President Trump announced a whole bunch of tariffs and renewed his attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. So it’s time to break down the 10 things you need to know – including the possible next market megatrend (#4 below) 1. The Ultimate Trump Trade Gets Tested For months, the market was dominated by what we call “The Ultimate Trump Trade,” which was a group of stocks benefiting from: Higher stock, options, and crypto volumes Higher market volatility with higher prices President Trump generating market-moving news multiple times a week Lower regulation Some of the names we included are Robinhood (HOOD), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Schwab (SCHW), and Webull (BULL). Now these stocks are being tested – which could be a bad omen for the bulls. We’d keep a close eye on Robinhood since it’s the flagship of the crew. It had a furious bounce off the Friday morning lows: If it keeps extending, this market may not be done. 2. Rate Cut Odds Collapsed… and Then They Spiked. On Thursday, traders were pricing in a mere 39% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. This was down from 52.4% yesterday, and 75.4% a month ago. But after Friday’s messy nonfarm payrolls report, which included major downward revisions for May and June, things changed fast. As of 9:30 am ET Friday, traders were pricing in a 75.5% chance of a September rate cut: 3. “Low Quality” Stocks Got Destroyed On Friday afternoon, we ran one of our favorite stock scans, looking for names with: Market cap above $2.5 billion Revenues under $100 million In recent weeks, these names were up huge. This week, they got absolutely smoked, with just 2 in positive territory: This is a who’s who of stars in speculative sectors like quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI) AI (PONY), crypto (BMNR), and drones (JOBY). 4. Utilities Could Be the Next Megatrend Utilities stocks should be on your radar. Because if rates go down because of economic weakness, utilities could have 3 separate catalysts: The rate cuts themselves, because lower rates are good for utilities stocks A flight to safety AI driving higher electricity demand As you can see, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) is crushing SPY this year: Don’t ignore this potential megatrend. 5. Meta (META) Is the Heavyweight Earnings Champion On Wednesday, after the close, Meta beat earnings estimates by 21.8%. This was its 10th straight earnings beat, and it’s 4th straight double-digit beat. But how did the stock follow through during this epic winning streak? We looked at META’s stock price performance after the previous 9 earnings beats. 30 days later, the stock was higher 7 of 9 times, with an average return of +9.9%. Impressive! Speaking of earnings… 6. Earnings Season Has Been Solid On July 25, FactSet reported that 80% of companies are beating expectations during Q2 earnings season. At the start of earnings season, analysts predicted 4.9% earnings growth. But as of Tuesday, earnings were tracking towards 6.4% growth. And that was before earnings beats from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Qualcomm (QCOM). This is exactly what we saw last quarter – low expectations, and companies jumping over easier hurdles. Yes, the economy is showing cracks, but by and large, big companies are hanging in there just fine. 7. Sentiment Was Tracking Bullish On Wednesday, the AAII Sentiment Survey showed that 40.3% of investors are bullish, up from 36.8% last week. So we’ve had bullish readings for 4 of the past 5 weeks. Before this streak, there was not a bullish reading since January 30. The change is no shocker, because nothing improves the mood like higher prices. That said, the sloppy Friday action should push sentiment numbers lower. 8. Figma Is a Modern Momentum Marvel Design software maker Figma (FIG) came public Thursday and it was a doozy. The deal priced at $33. The stock opened for trading at $85. It closed at $115.50. And then it hit $150 after hours. It’s come off the highs Friday, but it’s still up on the day as of early afternooon! Even with all sorts of speculative stocks getting spanked. Wild Stuff. 9. Next Week Will Be Big for AI The AI trade went back into full swing as of late because of heavy capex plans from the likes of Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). But the fun isn’t over, because we have 4 key AI names reporting next week: Palantir (PLTR) AMD (AMD) AppLovin (APP) Tempus AI (TEM) They’ll give us plenty of insights on demand levels from all angles of the industry. And just an FYI – AMD has been beating Nvidia (NVDA) year-to-date: By the way, here’s your full calendar: 10. You Need a Trading Plan A trading plan will not guarantee you success. But not having a plan guarantees your failure. So let Sami Abusaad show you the ideal way to put together a trading plan: P.S Did you know that Sami’s Pristine Mentorship is open for registration? Go here to learn more.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Biggest Week Ever Edition
What a week! We just saw: The President of the United States of America argue with the Chair of the Federal Reserve over the cost of building renovations (yes, for real) A US- Japan trade deal Monster earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL) A big ol’ mess from Tesla (TSLA) Record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq And way, way more! So let’s dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right now, starting with… 1. You’re Headed into the Biggest Week of the Year Next week’s calendar is jam packed, highlighted by: US Economics: FOMC Rate Decision, PCE Price Index, Nonfarm Payrolls US Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Visa, Starbucks, Robinhood, ExxonMobil, and ARM Holdings International Economics: Japan and Canada Rate Decisions, Germany and Eurozone CPI Plus, we’re destined to get hit with a pile of trade news, including a potential deal between the US and the EU. So if you’ve been hoping more volatility… buckle up because the headlines will be flying in nonstop. So let’s talk about the Fed: 2. Rate Cut Outlook: Not so Good Traders are taking a July rate cut off the table for next week. The CME’s FedWatch tool is pricing in a mere 2.6% probability of a 25 bp decrease in the Fed Funds rate. There is optimism about September, however. The market now shows a 64.2% chance of a 25 bp cut by the September meeting. Of course, next week’s bevy of US economic data including GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm payrolls will impact expectations. What side are you on? Should the Fed cut rates now, later, or never? Let us know in the comments down below. 3. The Mood Slipped Bearish in the Face of Record Highs Despite the S&P and Nasdaq slamming to all-time highs this week, investor sentiment is slipping. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.8% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight weekly decline since the survey read 45.0% bullish on July 2. And it’s the first bearish reading since June 25. This decline implies there is a lack of trust in the rally, at least among investors. Of course, we are still well off the lows from earlier this year. 4. Tesla Estimates Are Still in Free Fall Tesla (TSLA) delivered its third straight earnings miss. So it’s no shocker that analysts’ estimates are still collapsing: If you look inside the red circle, you can see another dip in FY earnings estimates. Analysts now expect EPS of $1.72 this year, down from $1.81 ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report. And down from $3.24 a year ago. What can I say? Tesla’s still a stock built on hope for the future. On the other hand… 5. Amazon Just Keeps on Shocking Amazon reports earnings next Thursday and it’s always one of the biggest names of the season. Is it pricing in a monster earnings beat? The stock is up 30% in a straight line from the April lows. Plus, as you can see on the table below – Amazon has beaten earnings estimates for 9 straight quarters, with an average beat of +36%. Yet, the stock has sold off the day after earnings 4 times in a row. Could this be #5? 6. Sydney Sweeney Almost Created a Meme Stock Clothing brand American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) rose as much as 28% in premarket trading Thursday on the release of an advertising campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney. And it was looking AEO could turn into a meme stock. But the stock came back down to Earth: Because everyone’s asking a simple but important question: Can Sydney Sweeney drive sales? Analysts are forecasting Q3 sales at $173 million. If she drives $10 to $20 million in extra sales this quarter – that would be pretty big. Keep an eye on this story. Because short interest on American Eagle stock is 12.2% – pretty significant if the numbers get a lift. We recommend asking your teenage kids – “will you start shopping at American Eagle Outfitters?” 7. The AI Trade Rages On Alphabet’s (GOOGL) earnings report was fantastic, especially in the face of “expert” predictions that AI will kill Google Search. But perhaps the biggest story in that report was Alphabet boosting its capital spending budget, which sent up semiconductor stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD). The best possible bull case for semi stocks for Nvidia is demand outstripping supply. Longs want to hear “we can’t produce chips fast enough.” And if Google’s upping its spend, the competition for AI chips and related items goes up. On the negative side, expectations for Nvidia’s next earnings report are sky-high with the stock at record highs, up 102% from the April lows. And speaking of AI… it’s driving another raging trade… 8. Uranium Is Champion AI is driving increased electricity demand just as the US becomes more friendly to nuclear energy. The result? The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is now up 55% in 2025, more than 5X the return of SPY: And here’s one fun fact about this sector. Uranium miner Cameco (CCJ), which accounts for 23.7% of the URA ETF, has a market cap of just $34 billion. So even at these heightened levels, institutions have very low exposure to this sector. Keep it on the radar. 9. 2025’s Biggest Winners Which S&P 500 stocks have done best in 2025? Let’s take a look. Palantir (PLTR) is in the #1 spot after dominating the leaderboard last year, followed by energy monster GE Vernova (GEV) and gold miner Newmont (NEM). Here’s the top 25: 10. You Can Learn Sami Abusaad’s #1 Indicator in 17 Minutes Sami Abusaad uses two indicators and nothing else. His favorite of the two? The 20-period moving average, which he explains right here in plain English:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Ultimate Trump Trade Edition
What a week! We just saw: Record highs in SPY and QQQ Strong earnings from the likes of JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Netflix (NFLX) President Trump continue to harass Fed Chair Jerome Powell Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller call for a July rate cut… which might be his official application for the Fed Chair job A shocking rally in what bears call “low quality” stocks And way, way more! So let’s dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right now, starting with… 1. The Ultimate Trump Trade Just Won’t Quit We’ve talked a lot about the monster moves in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, including: Robinhood (HOOD) Coinbase (COIN) Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Charles Schwab (SCHW) Webull (BULL) These stocks went WILD this week thanks to higher stock and crypto currency prices plus strong earnings from Interactive Brokers and Charles Schwab: Webull led the way with a 22% gain. So what are these stocks telling us? The market expects: Higher stock and crypto prices Strong volumes thanks to Trump-driven news flow. Keep these names on your radar. 2. Sentiment Is Bullish, But Not in a Crazy Way The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 39.3% of investors are bullish. This is the third straight week of above-average bullish readings. Before this streak, the last such bullish reading was way back on January 30. And of course, we are well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. It goes to show – nothing brightens the mood like rising stock prices. So do these numbers indicate rampant bullishness? No. It’s common for bullish readings to go over 50% in strong markets. But do you know what does indicate rampant bullishness? This: 3. “Low Quality” Stocks Provide High-Quality Returns We screened for stocks with these attributes: Under $100 million in revenues Market cap over $2.5 billion We came up with 28 names: 27 of 28 were up this week with an average return of 13.3%. The bears will tell you that surges in low-quality stocks can be a sign of extreme froth. But remember, they’re only low quality if you’re not in them! But, our friend David Prince of T3 Live’s Inner Circle had something interesting to say on Thursday evening: 4. Listen to David Prince Now Here’s what he told us: Late stage bull markets are awesome and DANGEROUS… this is when 5 dollar stocks go to 20 in days. It’s also why trying to call the top is a fool’s errand. Often the most money is made right here and now. Just remember when the music stops to have a chair waiting. — The Inner Circle Trading Group DP David Prince (@epictrades1) July 17, 2025 So what’s David saying? That this could be a dangerous time. But’s also a lucrative one – as you can see by the eye-popping moves in speculative stocks like Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Joby Aviation (JOBY), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI). These companies have questionable fundamentals, but sexy stories. And right, traders are buying stories. 5. Ethereum Screamed This week, the US Congress passed the “Genius Bill,” which regulates Stablecoins. This legislation is aimed at making Stablecoins safer for mainstream use. This gave Ethereum a big turbo-booster since it’s used in many Stablecoins. And Ethereum rose over 19% this week while Bitcoin slid off its peak: 6. This Week Is BIG We got a whole lot going on this coming week, including: Fed Chair Powell speaking at a conference in Washington DC The ECB rate decision Earnings from Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOGL), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), and other key names 2 US bond auctions And MORE! This is a big improvement from this week’s snoozefest (outside of President Trump’s antics, of course) So let’s talk about a funny thing we see with Tesla: 7. Tesla Keeps Getting Worse and Better Tesla (TSLA) stock is up 31% over the past year. Yet its earnings estimates have dropped HUGE: What’s holding the stock up? 4 Words: “In Elon We Trust.” So here’s a possible scenario for earnings on Wednesday: Tesla delivers a tiny earnings beat, and the stock pops 10%. So it’s a good time to look at earnings season overall: 8. Earnings Season Is Going Better Than You Think We’ve yapped endlessly about how low expectations have been for Q2 earnings season. So how’s it going so far? Very well, thank you very much. FactSet tells us that so far: 83% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates 83% have beaten revenue estimates So once again, the market braced for an awful earnings season and it’s turning out pretty well. On June 30, Q2 earnings were estimated to grow by 4.9%. That number’s since creeped up to 5.6% as better-than-expected reports keep rolling in. 9. Fed Rate Cuts? Outlook Not So Good This week, FOMC Board Member Christopher Waller made waves by calling for a rate cut at the July 28-29 meeting. The market doesn’t see that happening. The CME’s Fedwatch tool shows a mere 4.7% probability of a July rate cut. And September is not a done deal. The market is pricing in a 57.8% chance of a rate cut by September. Oh well. Surprises are fun! 10. Trading Is Not About Lambos and Miami Mansions This week, we asked Sami Abusaad and JR Romero a simple question: what do you love about trading?Here’s what they told us: Have a wonderful weekend, friends!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Bitcoin Bonanza Edition
What a week! We just saw: President Trump threaten Canada and other countries with higher tariffs Nvidia (NVDA) become the first-ever member of the $4 trillion market cap club The S&P 500 hit record highs again A giant crypto rally A 21% gain in the usually miserable cannabis sector Extension in “The Ultimate Trump Trade” (we discuss below) And way, way more! So let’s dig into the 10 things you need to know about markets right freaking now. 1. Bitcoin and Ethereum Are BOOMING Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies skyrocketed Thursday as investors went risk-on. Sami Abusaad predicted the boom, and went long Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) Wednesday for a sweet ride from $21.89 to nearly $25: His initial target for ETHE is $30. Sami also went long iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) on Thursday, with an entry of $63.81. He has not yet assigned a price target but sees incredible upside ahead. Want to learn how Sami makes these incredible picks? Watch this quick webinar, and then go here to get “ESP.” 2. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On We’ve talked extensively about the huge outperformance in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, namely: Robinhood (HOOD): +302% since the election Coinbase (COIN): +98% Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +66% Charles Schwab (SCHW): +31% And all were up this week, even with the broad markets flat. So what are they telling us? That until something in the market and/or economy really breaks, traders expect this magic combo of upward movement and crazy news flow to continue. So let’s talk about how people feel about this market… 3. Sentiment Stayed BULLISH This Week The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 41.4% of investors are bullish, down slightly from 45% last week. This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. These were the first above-average bullish readings since January 30, 2025. Many investors are concerned about the tariff picture and earnings season. But nothing perks up the mood like higher stock prices. And this newfound bullishness comes at an interesting time because… 4. Tuesday’s Gonna Be Big On top of the usual political back-and-forth, next week’s calendar is filled to the brim, highlighted by Tuesday, which features: The June CPI report Earnings from JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and other major banks FOMC Member Bowman speaking And more: Later in the week we’ll get the June PPI report, retail sales, Eurozone CPI, and even more earnings from the likes of Netflix (NFLX), Goldman Sachs (GS), and American Express (AXP). So there should be plenty of action. And what’s the big story for earnings? 5. Earnings Expectations Are Shockingly Low… AGAIN FactSet says that Q2 EPS growth is estimated at 4.8%. That’s down from 9.4% expected growth back on March 31. Every single sector has had downward estimate revisions. And this is GREAT news. Why? Because it means expectations are so low that could see a repeat of Q1’s major upside earnings surprises. 78% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates in Q1. Don’t be shocked if that happens again. 6. JP Morgan Is Dominating JP Morgan (JPM), reports Tuesday morning, has been a dominant market force in 2025. The stock is up nearly 22% this year, tripling the performance of the S&P 500. And after 5 straight impressive earnings beats, the market is bracing for a sixth. Look at that earnings multiple just grow and grow and grow: 7. Smart Traders Are Saying Less Is More On Thursday, Rick March of the Inner Circle VTF® made this well-timed post on Twitter/X: Reading TWTR I seesome really intelligent arguments for the market to come in. Oscillators say overbought. Tariffs, Geopolitics. Only one problem, stocks don’t break down. In times like these, focus becomes more important. Pick a couple of names that you like the story and the… — Rick March (@CrankyRicky) July 10, 2025 One of the names Rick highlighted, AeroVironment (AVAV) rose over 10% on Friday, giving the community a monster win: $AVAV has been a focus name for @epictrades1 and the Inner Circle all week David’s last buys on the stock were in the mid-$230s and he was trimming above $250 this morning 😎 Join the team: https://t.co/ihjWyUCC4q pic.twitter.com/Lo0LxuMBJF — T3 Live (@t3live) July 11, 2025 8. Fed Rate Cut Odds Still Low According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a 4.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 18.2% a month ago. And traders are now targeting a 61.1% chance of a 25 bps cut in September. That number could surge if we get another light CPI report on Tuesday. 9. CPI Has Been Cool… but Will It Stay Cool Enough? As you can see on this gorgeous chart, CPI has been on the decline for years. Core CPI has come in below expectations for 4 straight months, so it’s possible that a slightly light report has no impact – because that’s what markets are used to. As for me, the only thing I care about is egg prices. And those are certainly down from the highs… just not enough yet. 10. You Need Some Entertainment After a Zany Week Like This Contrary to popular belief, the best Wall Street movie is Margin Call. Here’s a pivotal scene in the film – when the Senior Partners of an imploding Wall Street firm meet to discuss the mess. Even if you’ve never seen the rest of the film, you’ll understand what’s happening.
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Goodbye Rate Cuts Edition!
What a week! We just saw: Markets end Q2 on a positive note, showing no fear of the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline A better-than-expected jobs report The US move closer to approving President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill A US-Vietnam trade deal Canada make a major concession to Trump with its immigration bill A sudden increase in bullishness among investors And a whole lot more. So let’s go over the 10 Things You Absolutely Need to Know Right Now – GOODBYE RATE CUTS EDITION. 1. Rate Cut Odds Slip Following Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls report, which featured a lower-than-expected wage growth number, traders took a July rate cut off the table. The CME’s FedWatch tool implies a 6.7% chance of a July rate cut, down from 23.8% yesterday. September odds are starting to slip as well. The market is pricing in a 67.4% chance of a rate cut by September, down from 71.9% yesterday, and from 74.3% last week. So let’s ask a big question: 2. Why Is President Trump Attacking Jerome Powell? President Trump keeps tossing verbal bombs at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and you might be wondering why. It’s a simple game. Assume we don’t get rate cuts, and the economy and financial markets crash. Trump assigns Powell the blame. If we do get rate cuts, the odds favor ongoing strength — even with a recession. According to Hartford Funds Research, cited by Bankrate The Hartford team reviewed 22 occasions from 1929 to 2019 when the Fed first cut rates and how stocks, bonds and cash performed over the subsequent 12 months. The after-inflation return of stocks averaged 11 percent, but returns diverged when the cut was associated with a recession. When the rate cut occurred and no recession took place, stocks averaged returns of 17 percent in the following year. But even when a recession took place, stocks were still 8 percent higher. 3. Traders Finally Turn Bullish… at an Inconvenient Time? The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 45.0% of investors are bullish. This is well off the 19.1% lows from earlier this year. And it’s the first above-average bullish reading since January 30, 2025. Right into the July 9 Trade Deadline. Is that a bad thing? We’ll see. Interestingly enough… 4. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Weird Factset says that 110 S&P 500 companies issued guidance for the second quarter, with 59 of them being positive. This is actually well above the 5 and 10-year averages. So guidance was strong in the face of big fears over trade and the economy. Meanwhile, earnings expectations are low. Which is GREAT news. Analysts predict 5.0% Q2 earnings growth – the lowest since Q4 2023. This is down from 9.4% on March 31. And why is this great news? Because there is plenty of room for companies to beat. Which is exactly what happened in Q1. Earnings grew 13.6% in Q1, which blew away estimates. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Rages On We’ve talked a lot about the huge gains in brokerage stocks that benefit from increased trading volumes. They are BOOMING this year: Robinhood (HOOD): +150% Coinbase (COIN) +43% Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +31% Webull (BULL) +22% $SPY is up just 7%. Why is this industry doing so well? Because the environment is perfect. Markets are volatile but trending higher, and President Trump ensures heavy news flow. All good for trading volumes – and these stocks. But what’s not good for these stocks? Next week’s calendar: 6. Snoozefest? What a sad, pathetic little calendar we have for next week: Yes, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes and a couple of bond auctions. Maybe the big July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline will drive some action, but even that could be resolved soon. 7) Can We Talk About Bitcoin $200,000? Bitcoin is getting lots of attention because it’s flirting with key resistance around $110,000. So let’s ask a crazy question. Is Bitcoin headed to $200,000? JR Romero has an idea: 8. Small Caps Get a Start So far this month, IWM is beating SPY: 3 days of action do not make a trend. But it’s worth watching because SPY has more than doubled IWM’s performance over the last 10 years. That has to flip eventually. Right? Put it on the radar. 9) It’s Time to Write Your Trading Plan A trading plan can’t guarantee success. But a lack of planning guarantees your failure. So let Sami Abusaad take you through the process of writing a plan that sets you up for long-term success: 10) Happy Fourth of July! Don’t take the freedoms we have for granted. And watch the single best scene from Saving Private Ryan:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Queen Cathie Wood Edition!
What a week! Here’s what happened: President Trump cyber-bullied Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding faster rate cuts The US and China signed a trade deal allowing rare earth exports from China and an easing of US tech restrictions The S&P and Nasdaq slammed the bulls with a move to all-time highs Inflation showed continued signs of easing The US dollar dumped Uranium soared as nuclear power comes back en vogue Gold dropped like a rock, and yes, it is a rock Cathie Wood’s ARKK ETF showed continued dominance And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now – Queen Cathie Wood Edition: 1. Tech Led Us to Record Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs this week as tech stocks took center stage. 35 S&P names, including NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), Oracle (ORCL), and Netflix Inc. (NFLX), and Palantir (PLTR), hit record highs. As of Friday afternoon, QQQ was up 7.7% on the year: And if we have to crown a Queen… it’s Cathie Wood: 2. ARKK Is Dominating! Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up nearly 24% this year, crushing the major indices: ARKK has made a stunning comeback off the April lows thanks to hefty positions in winners like: Coinbase (COIN) Tesla (TSLA) Roku (ROKU) Roblox (RBLX) Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Yes, Circle is off its highs… but it’s still up huge from its January 5 IPO. Well done Cathie! But even with all the high-flying stock action… 3. Investors Don’t Trust This Market The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 35.1% of investors are bullish. This is off the lows from earlier this year. But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. We haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors are bullish. Rallies are built on doubt, and blow-off tops are driven by a euphoric mood. There are few signs of either. 4. Homebuilders Might Be Sending Smoke Signals Last week, we pointed out the mystery in homebuilding stocks. Lots of folks are talking about soft housing demand and growing supply. But the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) popped almost 5% this week. Could markets be sniffing out rate cuts already? It’s hard to say. President Trump’s been loud and clear that he wants lower rates, and has been ranting and raving about Fed Chair Powell’s measured approach. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump may name the next Fed Chair early to undermine Powell. So what’s the market saying about rates near-term? 5. July Rate Cut? Outlook Not So Good As of Friday afternoon, the CME’s FedWatch Tool was pricing in an 18.6% chance of a July rate cut: The outlook for the September Fed meeting is different. The market is pricing in a 77% chance of 25 bps in cuts by then, and a 17% chance of 50 bps in cuts. But, the economy is humming along and equity markets remain strong, even in the face of the trade war. The real question may be “will the Fed step in BEFORE things break?” I can’t answer that question. Can you? 6. Next Week SHOULD Be Sleepy The market closes early Thursday and it shut on Friday for the July 4 holiday. So the calendar is light: Does that mean we’re in for a sleepy week? Maybe not. Remember, we don’t know what could happen with the trade war or Middle East conflict. The President has a knack for keeping things “interesting.” And volume could be light, exacerbating volatility. If you think you can take it easy into the holiday, you better think twice. 7. Uranium DID NOT Fill the Gap Last week, we pointed out that the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) looked like it might fill its June 16 gap up. It did not! On Monday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced plans to build a new nuclear facility. This comes amid the backdrop of a friendlier regulatory environment for the nuclear industry. The AI boom is also driving increased electricity demand, and companies like Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) have struck nuclear power deals. The Washington Post reported that Former Texas Governor Rick Perry’s company Fermi America just laid out a proposal for four new nuclear reactors near Amarillo. The result: URA is now up 42% YTD, crushing every major ETF, including ARKK, which we discussed earlier. 8. Super Micro’s Short Squeeze Is Epic Last weekend, our buddy Sami Abusaad called Super Micro (SMCI) “trashy.” He also said the stock looked great, and that it could hit $65: SMCI opened Monday morning at $43.47 and fell to $40.77. Now it’s at $47+. What’s driving the stock? Well, tech stocks and AI names have been rocketing higher. And SMCI’s short interest is 16.2%, the third highest of any stock in the S&P 500 Index: Keep it on the radar. 9. Gold Has Been Dropping Like the Rock That It Is I almost wrote “gold is dropping like a rock.” And then I realized gold is a rock. Whatever. It’s been in absolute free fall thanks to improving US-China trade relations and an easing of Middle East tensions. Given how far gold’s come, it could have a long ride down if good news keeps coming. 10. You Can Master the 20 Day Moving Average NOW Sami Abusaad is an amazing trader. Why? Because he keeps things simple, with 2 indicators and nothing else. not even volume. Learn about his favorite one, the 20 day moving average, now. And stop missing the biggest moves in the market:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – SUPER SPEC SLOWDOWN EDITION!
What a week! Here’s what happened: The FOMC left rates unchanged President Trump demanded rate cuts… again FOMC board member Christopher Waller echoed Trump by saying we should get rate cuts as soon as July We got lousy economic data including misses on retail sales and industrial production There were shocking rallies in select growth stocks Super-speculative stocks slowed down The Israel-Iran conflict had the world on edge And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. The Super-Duper Spec Rally Is Slowing We fired up our scanner to look for stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $100 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We came up with 23 stocks led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +167% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +142% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 107% (numbers are as of Friday June 20 at 1:06 am ET) And the average return this quarter is 47%. Yes, 47%. But over the last week, they are down an average of -0.2%. Just look at the right column in this table – there’s a lotta red in there. So if you’ve been waiting for a slowdown in the wild ones, it may be here. 2. Next Week Will Be a Doozy… Markets are supposed to be sleepy in summer… but look at next week’s calendar. It’s jam-packed: We have: Multiple Fed heads including Powell speaking Tons of key economic data reports including PCE Price Index, GDP, and Durable Goods Earnings from Fedex (FDX), Micron (MU), and Nike (NKE) And that’s on top of whatever headlines come out of the trade war and Middle East. 3. The Odds Don’t Favor a July Rate Cut… YET As of Friday afternoon, the CME’s FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a 14.5% probability of a July rate cut: So Trump and Waller’s calls for cuts aren’t making a dent… yet. If we get a wave of lousy economic data next week – especially a light PCE Price Index number – perhaps the odds start shifting. 4. CoreWeave Might Be the Most Crowded Short in the Market For weeks, we’ve yammered on Twitter/X about the Put Skew in CoreWeave (CRWV) options. As you can see on this options chain, the implied volatility on CoreWeave puts is basically double that of calls. So traders are paying way more for CoreWeave puts than calls. And what does that mean? Everyone is betting against CoreWeave. With so many people on one side of the trade, don’t be shocked if CoreWeave just keeps rallying: 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 33.2% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. But nonetheless, it’s a sign that many investors still distrust the market. And it’s healthy because it means there’s little euphoria in this market. 6. ARKK Is on FIRE Did you notice that Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 75% from the April lows? How’d this happen? Good old-fashioned stock picking. ARKK’s biggest positions include Tesla (TSLA), Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), Roku (ROKU), and Tempus AI (TEM) — all of which are up huge off the April lows. And if we take a longer-term look, ARKK is +19% YTD and +56% over the last 12 months, crushing the SPY. Well done Cathie! 7. Gold Failed Last week we discussed the possibility of gold powering through $3,450 resistance. Did it happen? No. Gold saw profit-taking this week, even with high uncertainty around the Middle East and on trade. But with the way the world is going, it should be on your radar. And on a related note: 8. Uranium Might Fill the Gap The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) has been an absolute monster this year because of supply-demand dynamics, including AI driving growth for more nuclear power. URA gapped up on June 16 on President Trump’s executive order to support the domestic uranium industry. However, it’s now filling that gap: Let’s keep things in perspective. URA is up 38% this year, so profit taking shouldn’t surprise us. Still, uranium bulls don’t want it filling that gap. 9. Homebuilding Stocks Are a Mystery Is it time to go bottom fishing in homebuilding stocks? After all, housing demand is soft and supply is building. But then we look at this 5-year chart of SPY vs. the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB). And we find that the homebuilders are roughly on par with the overall market: It feels like there’s no edge here. Yes, these stocks are well off the highs, but they’re also not down so much as to be obvious bargains. Maybe we’ll get a signal from KB Homes (KBH), which reports earnings after the close Monday. 10. Candlesticks Can Fail You The T3 house was built on a foundation of technical analysis. Especially candlestick analysis. But JR Romero argues that candlesticks can fail you. Learn how and why in this extended lesson:
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – WAR FOOTING EDITION
What a week! We just saw: Israel launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities President Trump and Elon Musk make nice The US and China inch towards resolution on trade A big cooling of inflation And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. War Is Driving a Resurgent Gold Trade Early Friday, Israel launched a series of attacks on Iranian nuclear and military targets. That drove a big rally in commodities like oil and precious metals. Gold is up over 30% this year and this conflict could be a catalyst for more gains – especially if Iran retaliates. Breaking through resistance at the $3450 area would the first step: 2. President Trump and Elon Musk Made Up Last week, Elon Musk went to war with President Trump over the “big beautiful bill” being stuffed with more pork than a bacon factory. Musk even dropped this bomb, though it was deleted this week. But these two Titanic egos made nice this week, with Musk Tweeting “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.” And yes, this is a stock market story because it’s created extra volatility in Tesla stock. We’ll talk about a problem with Tesla stock below in this article… 3. There’s Been a Shocking Rally in Super-Speculative Stocks We ran a screen in KoyFin for US stocks with these attributes: Revenues below $50 million Market Cap over $2.5 billion So forget about profits – these companies barely have any sales. The results were pretty wild. We have 18 total stocks, and 15 of them are up this quarter, led by: NuScale Power (SMR): +194.8% Quantum Computing (QUBT): +129.4% D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): 111.6% (numbers are as of Thursday June 12 at 10:50 am ET) And the average return is 47%. Yes, 47%. Speaking of surges… 4. Biotech Is Showing Signs of Life, Small Caps Not So Much In recent weeks, we’ve talked about the biotech sector waking up after 10 years of doing a whole lotta nothing. And traders have been eager to see small caps play catch-up thanks to the light CPI and PPI reports. So what’s happening? Biotech is rocking, with the XBI ETF up almost 6% this month. Small caps? Not so much. 5. Sentiment Remains Weak The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows that 36.7% of investors are bullish. This is off lows from earlier this year, as you can see on the chart: But it’s below the long-term bullish average of 37.5%. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average bullish reading since January 29, when 41% of investors were bullish. Let’s just remember that it’s awfully tricky to turn sentiment numbers into actionable information for our trades. 6. Sami Abusaad Provided Another WTF Moment… Sami’s known for making bold statements, like when he accurately predicted Tesla (TSLA) $400 and Bitcoin $100,000. And then on June 4, Sami announced that he put 54% of his IRA into the Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF (YINN). And guess what? China’s been doing great since then, with YINN up 13% and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) up 4%: Now, is putting 54% of your IRA in a 3X China ETF sound financial planning? Probably not. But when Sami makes a bold claim, you oughta listen. And FYI – we checked with the man himself and he said the long-term China story looks good, but YINN is ready for a short-term pullback. So put it on the radar… 7. HIMS Is a Growth Name Worth Watching Retail traders love Him & Hers (HIMS). Wall Street hates it. We found out why in this exclusive interview with Jonathan Stern, who created the HimsHouse investor community: 8. The 90s Are Back 90s fashion and 90s music are back. And then there’s 90s tech stocks… They are crushing the Mag7. Oracle (ORCL) is up a whopping 29% this month thanks to a great earnings report. And we see big moves in stocks like Micron (MU), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT): Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) are getting left in the dust… And speaking of Tesla… 9. Tesla Estimates Are in Freefall One year ago, analysts expected Tesla to earn $3.45 a share in FY2025. That number is down to $1.89 today. Yet Tesla stock is up 86% over the last year. How long can this last? Tesla stock runs on hope… but the numbers have to add up eventually. Right? 10. Inner Circle Prices Are Going Up Prices on David Prince’s Inner Circle community are going UP to: $7,000 per year $800 per month Why do people love this community so much? Find out in this webinar replay. Then go here to apply.
Continue Reading -->Why Is HIMS Stock So Hated?
Today we sat down with Jonathan Stern of HimsHouse to discuss the ever-controversial Hims & Hers (HIMS) — a stock hated by Wall Street, loved by retail: We learn: The unique story behind HimsHouse Why retail investors love this meme-friendly stock so much – and why Wall Street hates it Why HIMS is growing so fast The long-term expansion story the “experts” might be missing A major problem with financial data services Jonathan’s long-term revenue forecast for HIMS And MORE!
Continue Reading -->10 Things You Need to Know – Trump vs. Musk Edition
What a week! We just saw: President Trump and Elon Musk enter a war of very unkind words President Trump make nice with China A surprise catalyst for the “Ultimate Trump Trade” A better-than-expected jobs report A sign of life in a “left for dead” sector And a whole lot more! So let’s dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now: 1. President Trump and Elon Musk Went to War Elon Musk went to war with President Trump this week thanks to the “big beautiful bull” being stuffed with more pork than a bacon convention. Musk did not hold back, with these messages getting over 260 million views on Twitter. Tesla (TSLA) stock took a beating, dropping 14% this week while tech stocks were up. However, the President did not go scorched-earth in response, and news reports indicate that Trump and Musk might reconcile. And, a CNN source reported that President Trump told Vice President JD Vance to “speak diplomatically” about the mess. So in keeping with the news flow rollercoaster, maybe Trump and Musk will make nice a la Zoolander and Hansel: Tesla longs are hoping for that. 2. We Need to Give Sami Abusaad a Shout-Out Last weekend, Sami said the market was heading back to all-time highs. Sami said: Forget the news flow Forget bond yields Forget the futures markets And just focus on the price action. As we write this on Friday at 1:27 pm ET, SPY is up 1.5% for the week and QQQ is up over 2%. By the way, Sami put 54% of his IRA into a very unusual ETF. Get it here. 3. The Economy Is Alive and Kicking While the doomsday crowd expects the US economy to fold because of tariff-related strife… things are humming along. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report was better-than-expected. Traders were bracing for a mess because of Wednesday’s weak ADP report. But the US economy remains alive and kicking. Another positive sign: JOLTS Job Openings came in above expectations, meaning US companies are still looking to hire. 4. The Mood Is Still Sour AAII Sentiment came in at 32.7% bullish this week, in-line with last week’s reading. This is well off the February and March lows, which preceded “Liberation Day,” which sent the US-China conflict into high gear. However, we’re still below the 37.5% long-term average. In fact, we haven’t had an above-average reading since January 29. So the mood remains sour. 5. The Ultimate Trump Trade Gets a New Catalyst We’ve talked extensively about the huge outperformance in stocks that benefit from financial market volatility, namely: Robinhood (HOOD): +189% since the election Interactive Brokers (IBKR): +34% Coinbase (COIN): +32% Charles Schwab (SCHW): +24% But a new catalyst for two of these names may be on the horizon. S&P Global will report new additions to the S&P 500 after the close on Friday. And Robinhood (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) both have a chance to be added by virtue of their large market caps – $67 billion for HOOD and $90 billion for IBKR. 6. Left-for-Dead Biotech Shows a Sign of Life Biotech has been a mess for over a decade. Over the last 10 years, SPY is up 240%. And XBI is up 5%> BUT… XBI managed to rally over 6% this week. Traders have been burned for years buying biotech dips. Could this be the turning point? It’s hard to say – but keep this group on your radar. 7. Q2 Earnings Expectations Are Crazy Low Q1 earnings season was an unqualified success, with 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, according to FactSet. And here’s the good news for Q2 – estimates are dropping like a rock. On March 31, analysts forecast 9.3% EPS growth for Q2. Today it’s 4.9%. Is that crazy low? Yes. Is it convenient? Yes, again. When the bar is low, it’s easy for companies to beat expectations. 8. Bitcoin Is Taking a Nap Bitcoin went on a wild rally off the April lows. Last week, we asked whether Bitcoin needed a nap because of weakness in MicroStrategy (MSTR) and GameStop’s (GME) Bitcoin purchase announcement, which spurred a sell-the-news reaction. Turns out, we should have shorted Bitcoin because it’s under pressure: Is this a disaster? Nah. Bitcoin went up 50% in a straight line. It deserved a nap. 9. It’s Still a Trader’s Market David Prince of T3 Live’s Inner Circle community argues that you need to have your trader hat on. [IMPORTANT: David is hosting a webinar which you can sign up for here.] And with the market grinding higher, the best opportunities are “under the hood.” See what he means: 10. You Need Some Gratitude! Friday marked the 81st anniversary of the D-Day landing on the beaches of Normandy, France. If not for the 150,000+ brave souls from around the world that risked it all, we might not be here. Be grateful! And watch Saving Private Ryan this weekend. I once worked for a former Army Officer who survived the assault. He said it was the most realistic depiction of Normandy that he ever saw. Rest in peace, Mr. Duffy. Have a great weekend folks.
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