Coffee With Greta: Disney Bucks the Downtrend
DJIA Futures: -21 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -15 (-0.4%) NASDAQ Futures: -62 (-0.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping as the holiday-shortened week begins but Disney shares are bucking the downtrend. Let’s get right to it! Iger Back, Chapek Out At Disney Walt Disney (DIS) shares are rallying 10% ahead of the open following news that former CEO Bob Iger is back in the position. Disney announced late Sunday it had reappointed Iger as CEO effective immediately, replacing Bob Chapek. The company sharply missed Q3 expectations earlier this month as costs swelled. Disney said Iger has signed on to serve as CEO for two years “with a mandate from the Board to set the strategic direction for renewed growth and to work closely with the Board in developing a successor to lead the Company at the completion of his term.” Chinese Stocks Slip Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are falling in premarket trade amid the latest surge in Covid cases in China. Alibaba (BABA) shares are down 3.1%, JD.com (JD) is falling 5.2%, Baidu (BIDU) is down 2.1%, and Pinduoduo (PDD) is sliding 2.6%. Three Covid-related deaths were reported in Beijing over the weekend, the first since May. The overall number of cases in the country is also surging. China has implemented strict lockdown measures amid outbreaks as the country operates on a zero-Covid policy. Oil Prices Fall On Chinese Demand Concerns The Covid outbreak in China is also putting pressure on oil prices this morning. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down 0.7% to under $80 bbl while Brent crude futures are down 0.6% to just over $87 bbl. Both benchmarks closed Friday at the lowest since September 27. A rebound in the strength of the U.S. dollar is also putting more pressure on prices. Thanksgiving Week This will be a shortened week with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. The stock market will be closed Thursday and open until 1:00 p.m. on Friday. Trading volume is typically light during this holiday week as many traders take time off. The bulk of economic data for the week comes out on Wednesday. Those reports include October durable goods and capital goods, weekly jobless claims, S&P manufacturing and services PMI, November consumer sentiment, October new home sales, and the Fed’s November meeting minutes.
Continue Reading -->Would I Buy Disney?
We have mostly red arrows around the world to start this holiday-shortened week. Remember the market is closed Thursday and shuts at 1 pm Friday. Europe is lower with the DAX -0.6%, CAC -0.2%, and FTSE -0.1%. Asia is lower. The Hang Seng is -1.8% but it’s had a huge move off the lows. The Fed’s Bostic said “we may be done within 75bp-100bp” this weekend. SPX futures are -24 to start the week. The question is do we hold the 3906-3935 area to keep this active sequence intact for another move above 4028? Or was that it? The next day or two will be important. DIS is gapping up on Iger’s return but I wouldn’t chase it. $102ish is resistance Now let’s get into some of the other names I’m watching: AAPL isn’t special but gives opportunities. If this market is going to hold up this week, it will need this to be decent. This morning it’s below the $149.97 low from Friday. See if that gets reclaimed. If not, $148.56 is key. I have some calls on, but no stock. I’ll see if it’s buyable today with a signal. TSLA lost special status on 9/21-9/22 when it broke $305. It has been for sale since then. On Friday it toyed with the lows of the year as it hit $176.50. See how it handles that spot today. Elon Musk created his own problems with Twitter. The monthly chart has been super bearish for a while now. NFLX: Ryan Cohen is building an active stake but that isn’t affecting the price this morning. It hit $312 and broke $299. We”ll see if it can go red to green and reclaim Friday’s low of $287 to relieve some pressure. GOOGL hit a high of $100.14 in this oversold rally. Now it’s faltering. See if it tries to reclaim $96.37. Otherwise it can see $94 pretty fast AMZN’s bounce was lethargic. It hit a low of $92.48 That’s your new pivot support to trade against. META hit a high of $118.72 in the recent rally. Now, see if it can hold $109.80. See if it can go red-to-green today for cash flow. Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-21 at 7.37.58 AM
Continue Reading -->2 Minute Reversals Webinar Replay
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Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Ending the Week Higher
DJIA Futures: +225 (+0.7%) SPX Futures: +35 (+0.9%) NASDAQ Futures: +109 (+1%) Good morning friends! Futures are higher as traders digest the latest batch of positive retail earnings and assess the Fed’s plan for interest rates. Let’s get right to it! Gap Rallies On Surprise Q3 Profit Gap Inc (GPS) shares are up 8.5% ahead of the open after reporting a surprise profit in the third quarter. Here’s how the clothing retailer’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.71 vs $0.00 expected Revenue: $4.04 billion vs $3.82 billion expected The company did not issue full-year guidance but said it expects overall net sales to be down mid-single digits yera-over-year in Q4. Gap made progress in reducing extra inventory last quarter but the CFO said the company will “continue to take a prudent approach in light of the uncertain consumer and increasingly promotional environment as we look to the remainder of fiscal 2022.” Inventories were up 12% year over year in Q3 vs 37% in Q2 and 34% in Q1. Foot Locker Surges On Profit Beat Foot Locker (FL) shares are surging 14% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations and hiking its full-year outlook. Here’s how the shoe retailer’s results compared to analysts’ estimates: Adjusted EPS: $1.27 vs $1.11 expected Revenue: $2.17 billion vs $2.09 billion expected Same-store sales: +0.8% vs -6% expected Foot Locker reduced excess inventory with merchandise inventory up 29.5% year over year in Q3 vs 52.1% in Q2. The company forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $4.42 to $4.50 vs $4.25 to $4.45 previously. Foot Locker expects net sales to fall 4% to 5% vs 6% to 7% previously and same-store sales are expected to be down 4% to 5% vs 8% to 9% previously. Ross Stores Jumps On Upbeat Outlook Ross Stores (ROST) shares are soaring 16.3% ahead of the open after topping Q3 estimates and raising its full-year guidance. Here’s how the discount retailer’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: EPS: $1.00 vs $0.81 expected Revenue: $4.6 billion vs $4.37 billion expected Same-store sales: -3% vs -7.8% expected Ross now expects full-year EPS of $4.21 to $4.34 compared to the prior forecast of $3.84 to $4.12. Same-store sales are expected to be flat to down 2% in Q4 with EPS of $1.13 to $1.26. That topped analysts’ estimates for same-store sales to decline 4.6% and EPS of $1.13. Tesla Recalls 30,000 Vehicles Tesla (TSLA) shares are up 1.1% in premarket trade despite the electric automaker recalling about 30,000 vehicles. That recall was issued due to a problem that may cause the front passenger air bag to deploy incorrectly in nearly 30,000 Model X vehicles. Tesla issued the recall voluntarily and said it is not aware of any crashes, injuries, or deaths related to the problem. The issue will be fixed through an over-the-air software update. Existing Home Sales On Deck The National Association of Realtors reports October existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET today. That report is expected to show sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.37 million units last month from 4.71 million in September. The housing market has seen a steep decline in activity as mortgage rates surge.
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Fed Hawks Are Still Circling
DJIA Futures: -370 (-1.1%) SPX Futures: -50 (-1.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -172 (-1.5%) Good morning friends! Futures are falling after hawkish comments from a key Fed official. Let’s get right to it! Hawkish Fed Comments Spook Traders St Louis Fed President James Bullard is not backing a pivot on rate hikes yet. In a speech this morning, Bullard said rate hikes so far “have had only limited effects” on inflation. He said “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive” and to do so “the policy rate will need to be increased further”. Bullard is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. A chart he used in the presentation reportedly suggested that “sufficiently restrictive” rate could be around a 5% to 7% range. The federal funds rate is currently in a range of 3.75% to 4%. Treasury yields popped following the comments with the 2-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.45% and the 10-year yield rising 9 basis points to 3.79%. Home Construction Falls Less Than Expected U.S. home construction slowed less than expected in October. The Census Bureau reported housing starts dropped 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units. That was down 8.8% year over year but better than economists’ expectations for an SAAR of 1.41 million units. Single-family starts dropped 6.1% to an SAAR of 855,000 units while multi-family starts slipped 0.5% to an SAAR of 556,000 units. Permits issued for future home builds also declined less than expected. The report shows permits were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.53 million units, down 2.4% from September. Single-family permits fell 3.6% to an SAAR of 839,000 units while multi-family starts dropped 1.9% to an SAAR of 633,000 units. This comes a day after the National Association of Homebuilders sentiment index fell more than expected this month to 33, the lowest reading since June 2012. That was down 5 points from October and marked 11 straight months of falling sentiment. Builder sentiment about current sales conditions dropped 6 points to 39, buyer traffic fell 5 points to 20, and six-month sales expectations fell 4 points to 31. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week. The Labor Department reported 220,000 Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits. That was down 6,000 from the previous week and lower than 225,000 expected. Continuing claims rose by 13,000 to 1.51 million in the week ending November 5. That’s the first time continuing claims have topped 1.5 million since March 2021. Nvidia Slips On Mixed Results Nvidia (NVDA) shares are falling 1.3% ahead of the open after reporting mixed Q3 results. Here’s how the chipmaker’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.59 vs $0.69 expected Revenue: $5.93 billion vs $5.77 billion expected Revenue was down 17% year over year while gross margins fell 11.6% to 53.6%. The company attributed those lower margins to an inventory charge caused by low data center chip demand in China. Nvidia forecast $6 billion in Q4 sales, below analysts’ estimates of $6.09 billion. Macy’s Hikes Forecast After Earnings Beat Macy’s (M) shares are up 7.1% in premarket trade after beating Q3 expectations and hiking its guidance. Here’s how the department store chain’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.52 vs $0.19 expected Revenue: $5.23 billion vs $5.2 billion expected Macy’s is not dealing with the same inventory glut as other retailers, with inventory levels up just 4% year over year in Q3. The company forecast annual adjusted EPS of $4.07 to $4.27 vs $4 to $4.20 previously. Macy’s maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $24.34 billion to $24.58 billion. Kohl’s Yanks Outlook Kohl’s (KSS) shares are falling 3% ahead of the open after beating Q3 expectations but pulling its Q4 guidance. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: Adjusted EPS: $0.82 vs $0.77 expected Revenue: $4.28 billion vs $4.07 billion expected Revenue was down 7% year over year while same-store sales dropped 6.9%. Kohl’s withdrew its full-year guidance, citing volatility in retail and “significant” macroeconomic headwinds. The company also said board member Tom Kingsbury will serve as interim CEO when Michelle Gass leaves in December. Kohl’s has formed a committee to search for a new CEO.
Continue Reading -->The Inverse Head & Shoulders on the Road to SPX 4,000
On October 17, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson said inflation peaked, and that the S&P 500 (SPX) could rally to 4,000. If you remember that time, the mood was super bearish. So the market was taken off-guard by Wilson’s bullishness. Now when someone smart comes out bullish, I don’t just buy – I go to the charts. Because an opinion is just an opinion until the chart confirms it. That’s why I use tools like moving averages and trend lines. So let’s break down the move. First, the SPX broke below 3568 to hit a low of 3491 on October 13. That was two trading days before Wilson’s call on October 17. Next, the SPX rallied off the 3491 low and held above the 3568 where the neckline of the inverse head & shoulders was forming. The SPX then declined for 3 days into October 21, which was a massive day because there was a powerful Red Dog Reversal long signal. The SPX also cleared the descending trendline in short order after that: Next, the SPX dipped to 3698, which held. That put in the right shoulder of the inverse head & shoulders: Then we had the big CPI report on November 10. The CPI came in cooler-than-expected, which set off a round of being. The SPX ignited through 3911, which was the high on November 1. And finally, the SPX hit a high of 4028 on November 15 when the PPI report was lower-than-expected: Remember, the biggest topic on traders’ minds was inflation, so two straight light inflation readings really put the bears back on their heels. The lesson here? Listen to smart people. But match what they say against what you see in the charts. We followed this move every day in The Redler Report, which helped us find great swing longs in names like SPY, UAL, JETS, TLT, and JPM. Not every idea works, but when you get the overall trend right, things tend to go your way. So maybe you should think about joining up! Scott Redler’s Positions Disclosure as of 2022-11-16 at 2.08.35 PM
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Retail Sales Beat, Target Flops
DJIA Futures: -29 (-0.1%) SPX Futures: -6 (-0.1%) NASDAQ Futures: -21 (-0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as traders digest strong retail sales data against Target’s big earnings miss. Let’s get right to it! October Retail Sales Jump Retail sales rose more than expected in October as the U.S. consumer continues to pay higher prices. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 1.3% to $694.5 billion. That was better than economists’ expectations for a 1.2% gain. Retail sales jumped 8.3% year over year. Gasoline stations saw the largest increase with sales up 4.1% as prices rose, grocery store sales jumped 1.4%, and vehicles sales were up 1.5%. Core retail sales, excluding vehicles and gas stations, rose 0.9%. Target Tumbles As Profits Drop Target (TGT) shares are tumbling 15.1% ahead of the open after missing Q3 expectations and warning of a weak holiday quarter. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: EPS: $1.54 vs $2.13 expected Revenue: $26.52 billion vs $26.38 billion expected Profit was down about 50% year over year as the company cleared excess inventory. Inventory was up 14% compared to Q3 2021 vs 36% in Q2 and 43% in Q1. Target said it plans to cut up to $3 billion in total costs over the next three years. The company said it is planning for a weaker Q4, forecasting a low single-digit decline in comparable sales and operating margins around 3%. Lowe’s Beats Q3 Expectations Lowe’s (LOW) shares are up 1.5% in premarket trade after beating Q3 estimates. Here’s how the home improvement retailer’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: EPS: $3.27 vs $3.10 expected Revenue: $23.48 billion vs $23.13 billion expected Lowe’s reported 19% growth in its professional segment while online sales rose 12%. But the company did update its full-year guidance, lowering the top end of its revenue forecast to between $97 billion and $98 billion vs $99 billion previously. Lowe’s also expects comparable sales to be flat or down 1% vs the prior outlook for down 1% to up 1%. Homebuilder Sentiment Expected to Slide Further The National Association of Homebuilders releases its November sentiment index at 10:00 a.m. ET today. That index is expected to have fallen 2 points this month to 36. That extends a steep decline seen in recent months as mortgage rates have surged. Homebuilders have cited higher rates and continued labor and supply chain shortages for their decreased confidence.
Continue Reading -->The FTX Collapse: A Love Story
The FTX collapse and associated mess in the crypto market isn’t the first disaster of its kind. And it won’t be the last. Richard Feynman said “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” I tell my Inner Circle traders it’s better to be humble than smart. The number-one problem with smart people is they know they’re smart. They’re in love with their own brainpower and can’t question their instincts. Humility makes you question yourself. Take VCs. They are in love with the idea of finding the next Mark Zuckerberg or Steve Jobs or Warren Buffett or Elon Musk or Shopify (SHOP) or Salesforce (CRM) or whatever. And that is their greatest weakness. This mission to find extraordinary opportunities creates blind spots. Which is how they get fooled by fooled by hucksters like Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, and Bernie Madoff. When you’re a billionaire that’s financed 10 Silicon Valley unicorns, you never imagine that you could be the victim of a hoax. And there is a lesson for traders here too. Love people, not stocks. Stock traders fall in love with finding the next sexy asset class or the next Apple (AAPL) or Tesla (TSLA). And they never ask themselves “what if I’m wrong?” That turns research and analysis into confirmation bias. Everything you see — even if it’s bad — confirms what you believe. Let me give you an example. Say a semiconductor company reports a massive spike in inventories. The blind bull will say “that’s good because it’s more product to sell.” But if you have an ounce of skepticism, you’ll ask questions like “is demand drying up?” If you never ask tough questions, you will go broke in this bear market. I guarantee it. Confirmation bias wins because humans are determined to be right. That is why FTX will happen again and again for the next 10,000 years. There were TONS of red flags around Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX. Like lack of experienced management in a complex, difficult field… including no CFO! There were obvious conflicts of interest with Alameda. And a huge money funnel to Washington. Smart people armed with confirmation bias will make up excuses for anything and everything. “They don’t need a CFO because they’re MIT geniuses.” By the way, you’re about to see the biggest comedy in the world. Some of the biggest crypto players are out there aying “Crypto is still great! It just needs regulation so I’m marching to Washington to get it done!” Up until a week ago, no regulation was the whole point! The scary thing is crypto will get even messier. So remember this kids: be smart, but stay humble!
Continue Reading -->26 Questions With Derrick Oldensmith
Get to know Pro Trader Derrick Oldensmith in this fun interview! *This transcript has been edited for length and clarity Who are you? I’m Derrick Oldensmith and I am a Senior Trader and Registered Principal at T3 Trading Group. How long have you been a trader? I’ve been a trader with T3 for about 12 years. I was a sales trader for a different company before that. And I’ve been involved in markets in one way or another since I was a kid. I bought my first stock when I was about 13 years old. Do you love it? I love what I do. Every day is different, and that’s what gets me excited. I’m looking at the same Excel spreadsheets all day, every day. I’m studying the market. My role is to figure out the next step of this constantly evolving puzzle. What’s the most important personality trait for a trader? The most important personality trait for a trader is to be disciplined. Discipline, first and foremost with your risk management and your money management. A lack of discipline with risk management and money management is the number one reason why traders fail in this business. You also have to be disciplined with the rules that you create for your trading. The only way that you can be a consistently profitable trader is to be consistent in regards to your actions with the market. The only way that you can do that is by having rules in place that you are consistently following. That may sound easy right now, but when you’re in front of the screens, and your P&L is moving, it can be very difficult. What’s the best trade you’ve ever made? One that just comes to mind right away was being long JNUG on the run back up after Covid. It might not be my best trade ever but it’s up tere. It’s a 3X leveraged junior miner gold ETF. I always think it’s funny because for most of my career I’ve disliked the gold miners as trading vehicles and even as investments. Yet here I am involved in a 3X leveraged junior Gold miner ETF in a multi-week swing that turned out to be one of my best trades ever. How do you define success as a trader? That’s a very individual question for each trader based on the goals that they make for themselves. First, you have to have goals. And then success is in achieving those goals and then in the creation of new goals. Those could be goals for profitability, for consistency, or for building an account size. How do you stay up to date with the changing financial markets? I read a lot of news and information. And what I try to avoid as much as possible, which is really hard in this day and age, is other people’s opinions. I want more of the cold, hard facts of the news. And then I take that information into my own brain to try to figure out the next steps. And then of course, you need to have the the technicals confirm that. But this is not a 9 to 5 gig. There is a lot of work that needs to be done in order to be successful in this business. What’s the hardest mistake to avoid while trading? Probably getting in your own head. It goes back to being a disciplined trader and having a disciplined approach. It always sounds very easy on paper that you just have to do the right things consistently over time with your trading. But in practice, it’s so easy for us to get in our own heads. You get shaken out of that one trade right before it works. Or you have a bad P&L day and then it affects your next day of trading. What did you hate most about learning to trade? It’s a tough question, because I love learning, period. The hardest thing about learning, though, is probably the fact that you’re going to take a lot of step backs, right? A lot of this business is, you take two steps forward in your trading, two steps forward in your learning process, just to then have the market environment change, or you take a P&L hit, or a new obstacle gets in your way. And then you’re taking one step back. But sometimes you have to take that one step back in order to learn more and take those next two steps forward. So, I love learning in general, but you’re absolutely going to hit stumbling blocks along the way. Do you beat yourself up after a bad day? Before I can answer, I have to define what a bad day is in trading. I don’t think that a good day or bad day is necessarily P&L based. Obviously, that has something to do with it, right? If you have a big P&L day, up on the upside or on the downside, it’s hard not to feel a degree of emotion about that. But the real thing to be asking yourself when you have that good day or you have a bad day is, “did you do the right things today?” Because if you did all the wrong things and made a lot of money, you should not be happy about that. As a matter of fact, if you are happy about that, you’re setting yourself up for long-term failure. The truth is that we work in a game of probabilities. Sometimes you will do all of the right things and still lose money. You have to be able to take a step back and say, “Hey, I did all the right things. If I did this 100 times, I’m gonna be making money in the long run. It just didn’t work out today.” So, when I beat myself up, it isn’t just because I lost money today. It’s because I made mistakes that caused me to lose money. Or heck,
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Inflation Party 2.0
DJIA Futures: +348 (+1%) SPX Futures: +73 (+1.8%) NASDAQ Futures: +331 (+2.8%) Good morning friends! Futures are rallying after another inflation report shows price pressures are cooling. Let’s get right to it! Wholesale Inflation Cools More Than Expected Wholesale inflation pressures cooled more than expected in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index rose 0.2% monthly vs 0.4% expected. The PPI rose 8% annually vs expectations for an 8.4% increase. The Core PPI – which excludes food, energy, and trade services – rose 0.2% monthly and 5.4% year over year. PPI is considered a leading indicator for CPI as prices are passed down to consumers. This data is another sign the Fed’s rate hikes are working to cool inflation. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 83% of traders expecting the bank to approve a 50bps rate hike in December. Walmart Beats Fiscal Q3 Estimates, Hikes Outlook Walmart (WMT) shares are up 7.7% ahead of the open after beating fiscal Q3 expectations and raising its outlook. Here’s how the retailer’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: Adjusted EPS: $1.50 vs $1.32 expected Revenue: $152.81 billion vs $147.75 billion expected Walmart’s CFO said consumers have shifted their spending to less-expensive options as “pocketbooks are stretched”. The company also made progress on clearing excess inventory during the quarter. Walmart’s inventory was up 13% year over year last quarter, down from 25% in Q2 and 32% in Q1. Comparable sales rose 8.2% year over year vs 3.6% expected while Sam’s Club comparable sales jumped 10% vs 8.7% expected. The company expects that growth to slow to 3% in Q4 vs analysts’ expectations for 3.5%. Walmart also forecast adjusted EPS will drop by 3% to 5% in Q4 due to the impact of currency fluctuations. Home Depot Slips Despite Earnings Beat Home Depot (HD) shares are slipping 0.8% in premarket trade despite topping Q3 expectations. Here’s how the home improvement retailer’s results compared to analysts’ expectations: EPS: $4.24 vs $4.12 expected Revenue: $38.87 billion vs $37.96 billion expected Revenue was up 6% year over year. Home Depot reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting EPS growth in the mid-single digits next quarter. The company said customer transactions fell about 4% but average ticket prices rose 9% as shoppers paid higher prices. Empire State Manufacturing Index Turns Positive The New York Fed’s factory gauge jumped more than expected this month. The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 13.6 points to 4.5, the first positive reading since July. That beat economists’ expectations for a reading of -6. That jump came as the shipments index rose 8.3 points to 8. Unfilled orders also slipped 3.1% to -6.8, in a sign that metric is improving. Labor market conditions rose solidly and the price indices were flat. But manufacturers were more pessimistic about the next 6 months with the future business conditions index falling 4 points to -6.1. This index is considered a barometer for the broader U.S. manufacturing sector. Lucid Unveils Lower-Cost Car Lucid (LCID) shares are up 3.7% ahead of the open after the electric automaker unveiled new Air sedan models, including a new lower-cost option. The CEO told CNBC the new Lucid Air Pure will start at $87,400. An all-wheel-drive version with a 410-mile range is expected to ship by the end of this year with the rear-wheel-drive version arriving in 2023. Lucid also unveiled a new Air Touring model with all-wheel-drive, 620 horsepower, and a 425 mile range. That model will start at $107,400 with deliveries beginning shortly.
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