What the SPX Yearly Swing Chart Says Right Now
Going into the 4th quarter of 2021, we wrote that January would see the market get hit hard to kick off a bear market. I think the worst first half in 50 years fits the bill. One of the factors pointing to a fatal high in January 2022 was that it is 49 years from […]
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Stocks Are Free… Free Fallin’
DJIA Futures: -98 (-0.3%) SPX Futures: -11 (-0.3%) NASDAQ Futures: -46 (-0.4) Good morning friends! Futures are falling as traders gear up for the first day of Q3 after the worst first half in decades. Let’s get right to it! Worst First Half in 50+ Years The S&P 500 logged its worst first half of […]
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Is Inflation Actually Cooling?
DJIA Futures: -299 (-1%) SPX Futures: -40 (-1%) NASDAQ Futures: -125 (-1.1%) Good morning friends! Futures are slipping after the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Let’s get right to it! Core PCE Inflation Cools The Fed’s favorite inflation measure cooled slightly in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) […]
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: Recession Alarms Go Off
DJIA Futures: +33 (+0.1%) SPX Futures: -1 (-0.03%) NASDAQ Futures: -20 (-0.2%) Good morning friends! Futures are falling flat after new data shows the U.S. economy contracted further than initially estimated in Q1. Let’s get right to it! Q1 GDP Contraction Was Worse Than Originally Estimated The U.S. economy contracted further than originally estimated in […]
Continue Reading -->Can The Market Be Timed?
In our Hit & Run Morning Report for Monday, Lock, Stock and Barrel, we flagged “well-defined resistance at 3943 SPX by two methods” Tuesday morning’s report pointed to Monday’s NR 7 Day/ Holy Grail sell setup as a signal that volatility was ready to expand and to expect “two-way volatility with a possible Up Opening […]
Continue Reading -->Should We Trust the Monday Rally?
Sami explains why he is skeptical about Monday’s rally: Why he was surprised by the market’s rally Where Sami sees most of the overhead supply Why Monday’s gap could be a novice gap Why Sami wants to take profits on swing longs The big problem Sami sees with new swing longs
Continue Reading -->Can This Pig of a Market Fly?
Bears looked down the barrel of a loaded quarter-end rifle last week as fund managers put lipstick on a pig to save a bit of performance as the second half winds down. The question is can this pig fly further though the summer? Based on my big picture cycles, the next two weeks will answer […]
Continue Reading -->4 ETF’s I’m Watching Right Now
We have mostly green arrows around the world to extend last week’s gains. There’s not much out of the G7. China declared victory on the pandemic as the region keeps outperforming. There could be a ceasefire in Ukraine as Russia takes more territory. SPX futures are +16 giving upside follow-through to last week’s strength. The […]
Continue Reading -->Is the Bottom In?
One of the ways we define the near-term trend is by the 3-Day Chart. It turns up with 3 consecutive higher daily highs (intraday, not closing highs). It is not so much the turn-up of the 3-Day Chart in and of itself that tells the tale of the tape, but rather, the subsequent action. As […]
Continue Reading -->Coffee With Greta: All Eyes On Powell
DJIA Futures: -464, (-1.5%) SPX Futures: -64 (-1.7%) NASDAQ Futures: -208 (-1.8%) Good morning friends! Futures are lower as traders turn their focus back to the Fed and the looming possibility of a recession. A quick note that I will be out of the office tomorrow through Tuesday, June 28 so there will be no […]
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