Coffee With Greta: Stocks Are Free… Free Fallin’

DJIA Futures: -98 (-0.3%)

SPX Futures: -11 (-0.3%)

NASDAQ Futures: -46 (-0.4)

Good morning friends!

Futures are falling as traders gear up for the first day of Q3 after the worst first half in decades. 

Let’s get right to it!

Worst First Half in 50+ Years

The S&P 500 logged its worst first half of a year since 1970. 

And things are even worse for the Dow, which booked its worst first half since 1962. 

Stocks are deep in a bear market as traders are focused on inflation and the possibility of a recession.

Even though the Core PCE Price Index fell in May, it was still one of the hottest readings since the 1970s.

Analysts say the dramatic drop in stocks was all due to the Fed getting behind on inflation. 

Now the Fed is playing catch up, with a recession looming overhead. 

If data later this month shows another GDP contraction in Q2, that will officially meet the criteria for a recession. 

Bitcoin Logs Worst Month Ever

Crypto currencies are rising this morning after another tough session on Thursday. 

Bitcoin is up about 1.7% in the past 24 hours at over $19,200 while Ethereum is up over 3% at about $1,050.

Bitcoin suffered its worst month on record in June, losing more than 38% of its value last month. 

Ethereum also plunged 47% in June. 

More than $2 trillion has been wiped off the global crypto market cap in recent months. 

Micron Slides on Weak Forecast

Micron (MU) shares are down 4.7% ahead of the open despite beating fiscal Q3 expectations as traders focus on weak guidance.

The chipmaker beat reported adjusted fiscal Q3 earnings of $2.59 per share on $8.64 billion in revenue. 

That topped analysts’ expectations for adjusted EPS of $2.43 on $8.64 billion in revenue. 

But Micron released a grim forecast for fiscal Q4. 

The company expects $7.2 billion in revenue this quarter, sharply missing Wall Street’s estimate for $9.1 billion.

Micron also announced it is slowing its expansion plans. 

The CEO said, “Recently, the industry demand environment has weakened, and we are taking action to moderate our supply growth in fiscal 2023. We are confident about the long-term secular demand for memory and storage and are well-positioned to deliver strong cross-cycle financial performance.”

Kohl’s Tumbles After Ending Takeover Talks

Kohl’s (KSS) shares are plunging 18.6% in premarket trade after terminating sales talks with Franchise Group (FRG).

The retailer announced today is was ending those talks and said the retail environment has significantly deteriorated since the beginning of the process. 

Kohl’s also slashed its fiscal Q2 outlook due to slowing consumer spending amid high inflation. 

The company now expects its annual sales decline to be in the high-single digits vs its previous forecast for low-single digits.

The Chair of the board said, “Despite a concerted effort on both sides, the current financing and retail environment created significant obstacles to reaching an acceptable and fully executable agreement.”

Meta Slashes Hiring Plans, Warns About Economy

Meta Platforms (META) shares are down just 0.6% ahead of the open despite slashing its hiring plans for engineers. 

During a weekly employee Q&A on Thursday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company has cut plans to hire engineers by at least 30% this year. 

Zuckerberg also warned them to brace for a severe economic downturn saying, “If I had to bet, I'd say that this might be one of the worst downturns that we've seen in recent history.”

Meta originally planned to hire about 10,000 new engineers this year but has now lowered that target to around 6,000-7,000.

Gas Prices Still Dropping

U.S. gas prices are still falling ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend.

AAA shows the national average for regular gas fell to $4.842/gal today. 

That’s down more than a cent overnight and more than 17 cents from the record high.

Diesel also fell by more than a cent over night, down to $5.76/gal.

Oil Prices Rebound

Oil prices are rebounding today after falling on Thursday. 

West Texas Intermediate crude futures are up 2.8% to just under $109 bbl while Brent crude futures are up 2.9% to over $112 bbl.

Prices have been volatile as the market grapples with supply concerns against the possibility of a recession. 

Libya’s oil production has fallen sharply as more ports and oilfields have been shutdown due to protests. 

Norway is expected to see shutdowns early next week with offshore workers planning to strike.In Case You Missed It

• A new CNBC survey shows investors expect stocks to keep falling. 42% of respondents said they’re most likely to buy high-dividend stocks right now while just 18% said they would buy mega-cap tech stocks. 50% also said cash is their safest play right now, signaling more investors may be pulling out of the market during this time.