10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets. And by “fun,” we mean miserable. Unless you were short. President Trump tossing a major “chaos bomb” into the market with his aggressive Tariff announcement on Thursday China firing back with a 34% tariff on US-made goods Vietnam and Thailand signaling they will play ball with Trump on Tariffs QQQ entering bear-market territory with a 20% decline off the highs Newsmax (NMAX) going public on Monday and becoming a meme stock on Tuesday Gold hitting record highs And MORE! So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Freakin’ Now! 1. QQQ Enters Bear Market Territory Mag7 stocks have been a total mess in 2025, officially becoming the “Lag7.” And QQQ officially entered bear market territory by falling 20% off the highs on midday Friday. It definitely ain’t 2023 or 2024 anymore! As of Friday at 1:04 pm ET, just one stock in QQQ had a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 60 – Exelon Corporation (EXC). The small caps are even messier, with IWM over 26% from its highs. Need insights on navigating times like this? Check out The 7 Unbreakable Rules of Bear Market Trading by David Prince of Inner Circle. 2. CPI Could Create Pandemonium, Consumer Sentiment Could Signal Misery Inflation has moderated in recent months, as you can see on the chart of the YoY Core CPI: Traders want more of this to give the Fed ample room to cut rates. Markets are pricing in: 4 rate cuts this year 35% probability of a 25 bps cut at the May 7 Fed meeting 100% probability of easing at the June meeting Traders are worried about stagflation – stagnating economic growth and high inflation. Because tariffs could hurt growth and increase inflation at the same time. On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects tariffs to increase inflation and hurt growth. Hard economic data has been decent as of late. The March NFP and ADP employment numbers were solid, as was Q4 GDP. A hot CPI number on Thursday would be a disaster. On Friday, we get the April Michigan Consumer Sentiment number. Readings have been dropping like a rock all year. A continued drop may be a good thing for traders — since major collapses in Consumer Sentiment tend to correspond with stock market bottoms. 3. Earnings Season Kicks Off with the Banks We get the first taste of Q1 earnings season with JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reporting Friday. Expectations are low. FactSet tells us that 107 S&P 500 companies issued Q1 guidance, with 68 leaning negative. That’s 64%, above the 5-year average of 57%. And most of the weakness is in tech. But guidance is likely to get even worse thanks to all the tariff uncertainty. Because companies want to keep expectations as low as possible to set the stage for positive earnings surprises. The banks are key because they’ll give us insights into housing and the overall consumer picture – a good companion to the Michigan Sentiment report. 4. Gold Had a Monster “Sell the News” Gold hit record highs on Thursday on President Trump’s tariff announcement. But then it sold off. Hard. Traders have been asking whether gold’s surprising surge in 2025 was a sign of trouble to come. In hindsight, that looks right. If the tariff situation cools off, gold may flat-out collapse. 5. NVIDIA Could be a Value Stock If you loved NVIDIA (NVDA) at 70 times earnings… do you like it as 21 times earnings? NVIDIA was the leading megacap tech growth stock of 2023 and 2024. Could be the greatest value stock of 2025? Tough to say. Especially because traders want a big earnings report and strong guidance from this semiconductor leader. The problem is that NVIDIA won’t report earnings again until May. 6. Nike May Be the Tariff Bellwether Nike (NKE) was devastated on Thursday and Friday because the new Tariffs will hit the company’s supply chain, particularly in Vietnam. On Friday, Nike broke its pandemic low, and then rebounded hard when Vietnam signaled it would strike a tariff deal with the US. If more dip buyers come in hard, that could mean the market is looking past the near-term pain of the Tariff storm. Also see: Lululemon (LULU) and Deckers (DECK). 7. Sentiment Is Rock Bottom Negative 61.9% of investors are bearish for the next 6 months, according to AAII Sentiment. This is the 3rd highest bearish reading in history, behind: March 5, 2009: 70.3% at height of housing crisis October 19, 1990: 67.0% bc of Iraq’s Invasion of Kuwait, surging oil prices, and a US recession. These extreme readings happened right at market bottoms. But in fairness, in those cases, the markets were down much further off highs. And this 61.9% bearish number was calculated BEFORE the Trump Tariff news hit. 8. NewsMax Could Implode Newsmax (NMAX) has a high valuation and big losses. Not a great recipe for outperformance in this market. The stock opened at $14 when it IPO’d on Monday. And it hit $265 on Tuesday. On Wednesday at 1:15 pm ET, Adam Mesh announced he was shorting the stock. The stock was around $121 when this live stream started… and just an hour later it was at $67. And on Thursday it hit a low of $40. This is not a great environment for super-risky speculative names. So Newsmax should have a rough time going forward. 9. Bitcoin May Be Decoupling from US Equities Scott Redler pointed out this week that Bitcoin looks like it may be decoupling from SPY. We are being very selective with the starting point on this chart. Still – Bitcoin’s staying power has been remarkable during a sloppy era for risk assets. 10. You Should Learn from Paul Tudor Jones We’re hard at work expanding our Learning Center, and you should check out our latest piece. 10 Trading Tips from Paul Tudor Jones –
Continue Reading -->2 Traders, 1 Tesla Target Price
JR Romero announced his new target price on Tesla (TSLA). And it turns out Sami Abusaad has the exact same target (after Sami lowered his by $2). Learn: What makes Tesla (TSLA) different from Apple (AAPL) right now The strange force keeping Tesla elevated How JR traded Tesla this morning, and the game plan he gave his traders Why Sami got out of Tesla, and then back in Why you have to keep this stock on your radar And more!
Continue Reading -->The Heat Is On
Friday’s big red bar means the market is in trouble. Sami Abusaad explains: What the market would needs to rebound Where QQQ and SPY are going next A real estate stock that looks phenomenal What could turn AIG (AIG) into a magnificent long-term play A silver play that could trigger this week for big potential upside A quantum computing name that could go lower Why Lululemon (LULU) looks bearish And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting in April.
Continue Reading -->Stock Market Preview: 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets that included: Broad weakness in equities & cryptocurrencies Momentum in precious metals A bizarre array of tariff headlines A slightly hot PCE report A head-scratching IPO in CoreWeave (CRWV) So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week. 1. The April 2 Tariff Deadline Is About to Hit Like a Sledgehammer The Trump administration will hand down new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which the President called “Liberation Day.” Of course, we’ve been seeing conflicting headlines, and that should continue into Wednesday. Bulls are hoping for a last-minute compromise. And bears are hoping for… disaster? 2. Tesla Powered Up, But It’s Not Bulletproof Sami Abusaad made major headlines when he announced he bought 2,500 shares of Tesla (TSLA) at $235: He made his buy right after Minnesota Governor Tim Walz infamously laughed at Tesla stock declining. We checked in with Sami to get his current take on Tesla stock. He told us, “while there is potential upside to $342, I have a stop in around $250.” If Tesla drops to $250 and he exits, he’d still gain $37,500 from his $235 entry.” Not a bad worst-case scenario, right? He’s a bull – but as a top pro trader, he understands things can go against him. P.S Are You Joining Sami’s Mentorship? Just 1 Spot Is Left Reviews are in for Sami Abusaad and James Young’s Pristine Mentorship. 2 Spots Left in Sami Abusaad & James Young’s Pristine Mentorship Program Are you a new trader going all in? An experienced trader that wants to put it all together? There are just 32 spots left in Sami Abusaad’s Pristine Mentorship Program. Here’s a small taste of the feedback… pic.twitter.com/9OSNoQjk2B — T3 Live (@t3live) March 28, 2025 1 spot is left. If you are interested in joining, go here now. 3. CoreWeave May Put a Bottom in the Semis “AI Hyperscaler” CoreWeave (CRWV) went public on Friday. Back in July 2024 at the peak of Nvidia (NVDA)-led AI fever, there would have been unlimited demand for the CoreWeave deal. But CoreWeave had to lower its IPO price and size because of weak demand. David Prince of Inner Circle explained all the problems with the deal: But it’s worth asking: did the hatred for CoreWeave create a bottom in beaten-down semiconductor and AI stocks? We may find out Monday. 4. Gold and Silver Are Still Flying High JR Romero of our Momentum Express VTF® has been a huge gold and silver bull. So… he’s been right. GLD and SLV are destroying SPY this year: If you’re looking for momentum, it’s in the metals. 5. There Are Stress Fractures Out There Sentiment indicators imply traders and investors are feeling stressed headed into next week. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 22, indicating Extreme Fear. Meanwhile, the AAII sentiment survey showed a lift in bullishness this week. However, bullishness has been below average every week since January 29. Is there enough negativity headed into the April 2 Tariff Deadline? Maybe not. 6. How’s the Job Market? Consumer sentiment is on the decline as the word “stagflation” is starting to enter traders’ mouths. On Wednesday, we get the ADP Nonfarm Employment Report, followed by Nonfarm Payrolls Friday. While the “soft” data (like consumer sentiment) has been in the dumps, the “hard” data like jobs data remain steady. These two key March data points will help us figure out if there’s a change. 7. Is Ferrari Invincible? Ferrari (RACE) has been one of the all-time great sleeper growth stocks. It’s up 726% since its 2015 IPO, crushing SPY by more than 3X: On Thursday, the company said it would raise prices by up to 10% in the US because of the Trump auto tariffs. And the stock ripped on Friday. We’ve seen all sorts of consumer stocks like Lululemon (LULU) and Nike (NKE) get hit hard. Can the ultra-luxury Ferrari brand buck the trend? Keep it on the radar. Because its status-focused customers may look at a 10% price hike and say “who cares?” 8. China Needs to Step Up FXI rallied 35% from the January lows to the mid-March highs. But it’s out of gas: This chart is looking uglier and uglier. It’s time for buyers to step up. 9. Cannabis Can’t Get High If you think the semis and China names are in trouble… they’ve got nothing on the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) which is down 33% in 2025 after falling 46% last year. Here’s a lifetime chart of this troubled ETF – a crystal-clear example of why you should not get attached to a sector or stock: This will be the buy of a lifetime… someday. 10. Yes, You Can Learn From Paul Tudor Jones Step back into the 1980’s and learn how the legendary Paul Tudor Jones got it done back in the day. Amazing stuff. They don’t make ’em like this anymore.
Continue Reading -->David Prince Hates the CoreWeave IPO
CoreWeave is set to go public under the ticker CRWV on Friday. But David Prince says there’s a big, dark cloud hanging over this IPO. David explains what the future might look like for CoreWeave, using Meta Platforms (META) as an example: David also discusses: What CoreWeave needs to prove to the market Why now is the wrong time for an IPO like this Why this offering won’t reinvigorate the IPO market And more Get David’s new free weekly newsletter here.
Continue Reading -->My Price Target on Tesla (I Own 2,500 Shares)
Sami Abusaad bought 2,500 shares of Tesla (TSLA) at $235 — just as Minnesota Governor Tim Walz infamously trashed it. Tesla then skyrocketed up to $288.20 before coming back down to Earth. Is Sami giving up on this recent dip? NO. In fact, he has a new price target: Sami explains: What he does when a bottom is truly in Why Tesla can hit $342 How he calculated that $342 target price Where he will look to actually exit Why this is not an easy market The unique nature of the recent market tops and bottoms. And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting in April.
Continue Reading -->How Much of Your Account to Risk On a Trade
Many traders question how much of their account they should be risking on a trade in order to grow their account over time. Professional trader Derrick Oldensmith breaks down his thoughts on the topic: You’ll learn: How much Derrick believes should be risked in a day How to break that daily risk down into individual trades The concept of risk skew and how to use it to grow your account Derrick’s positions as of 11:05am ET March 25, 2024 Derrick Oldensmith is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG’), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary. T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG. Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG. It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed. Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG. All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision. The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.
Continue Reading -->Silver Looks Beautiful Right Now
JR Romero has been a HUGE gold and silver bull and recently shared his new Gold Price Target. But what about Silver? What’s his target here? Last September, JR said he was “backing up the truck” on silver, you can see in this video: JR Romero has been 100% right on $GLD this year. Now he likes $SLV even more! Get his price target for Silver Futures, and then $SLV in the second part of this short video: pic.twitter.com/74l6zbJUjD — T3 Live (@t3live) September 25, 2024 Here’s how the price action has been since then — crawling up nicely. But… JR still sees huge upside ahead for silver. He predicts Silver Futures will hit $41.38 by August, implying a gain of about 25% from here. And JR predicts the SLV ETF will cross the $36 mark in the same time period. What’s the bull case here And wiht? JR believes Silver will have a few weeks of consolidation to form a cup and handle pattern — with an explosion out of the base, as you can see on this chart: And with the way metals are crushing stocks this year, you should keep silver on your radar:
Continue Reading -->Tesla: I’m Betting Big!
Last week, Sami Abusaad announced he bought 2,500 shares of Tesla (TSLA). The stock has had a nice rally since then – but Sami is STILL betting big on the stock. Learn more in today’s video: Sami also goes over: Why SPY and QQQ can’t break Friday’s lows Why the airlines look good for swing trades now The bull case for Docusign (DOCU) His current take on Reddit (RDDT) after a 50% drop The best-looking real estate stocks here A semiconductor name with a beautiful weekly chart The weird thing about the recent market bottom And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting in April.
Continue Reading -->10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week
We’re closing out another fun-filled week in the markets that included: A “chaotic for most, fun for some” FOMC day Yet another Nike (NKE) earnings bomb A Friday “stick save” by the bulls Strength in energy and banks Weakness in semiconductors & crypto currencies So let’s dig into 10 Things Traders Need to Know Next Week. Click the calendar for an events listing: 1. A Trump Tariff News Storm The Trump administration will hand down new reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which the President called “Liberation Day.” Of course, we’re likely to see a storm of conflicting headlines over the next week. Do we get a fast compromise at the last minute? Or does everyone play hardball? There are almost too many scenarios to consider… 2. The Tim Walz Tesla Bottom? Sami Abusaad is bullish on Tesla (TSLA), having recently bought 2,500 shares of the stock. But Minnesota Governor and former VP candidate Tim Walz took the other side of the trade by cheering Tesla’s slide off the highs: If you need a little boost during the day, check out Tesla stock 📉 pic.twitter.com/KBEh6pOZLW — Tim Walz (@Tim_Walz) March 19, 2025 Yes, that was a real video. Not AI. An American politician celebrated American investors losing money in an American company. In public. Tesla employs many thousands of Americans, with a significant employee base in Tim Walz’ state of Minnesota. Which begs the question — could this cheap publicity stunt mark a bottom? Because the stock’s rallied $20+ since then. Maybe we can start calling him “Tesla Tim.” What do you think? 3. PCE Price Index & GDP Report = Stagflation? The FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference dominated the news flow this past week. The Fed kept rates steady as expected, while lowering its GDP growth forecast and increasing its PCE Price Index inflation projection. And this coming week, we get the final Q4 GDP number (Thursday) and the February PCE Price Index Reports (Friday). The Fed doesn’t have the best forecasting track record in the world. So traders are eager to see if actual numbers are in-line with the Fed’s outlook. Remember, stagflation is a major concern right now as the US economy slows. We do not need numbers pointing in that direction. 4. KB Home (KBH) Earnings + Home Sales Data Will Tell Us About Housing Homebuilder KB Home (KBH) reports Monday and will give us more insights on the housing market. Lennar (LEN) took a hit on Friday after warning that high interest rates, stubborn inflation, and a limited home supply are hurting the housing market. We’ll also see New Home Sales data on Tuesday and Pending Home Sales on Thursday. On a related note, our own David Prince of Inner Circle is predicting major turmoil in housing. 5. The Consumer Confidence Question May Be Answered On Tuesday, we get CB Consumer Confidence for March. With volatile stock markets, the April 2 tariff deadline approaching, and a lot of questions over the direction of inflation — how will consumers react? Nike’s (NKE) guidance didn’t exactly inspire… but it’s been quite a while since that company had anything good to say. Interestingly, Lululemon (LULU) reports Thursday and might be a decent gauge of consumer spending on the high end. 6. A Crypto Bull Could Run the SEC On Thursday, SEC Chair Nominee Paul Atkins will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Atkins is a big advocate for digital assets like Bitcoin — a big initiative for President Trump. Bitcoin is way off the post-election highs: If the Senate Banking Committee advances Atkins, the door opens for a vote to confirm his nomination. The big question is — can Bitcoin actually hold up on that good news? 7. There Is Brute Force Strength in The Metals The most under covered story in financial markets this year has been the rise in commodities – especially the metals. While the SPY is down 4% YTD, commodities have been skyrocketing, as you can see in the chart: Natural gas, gold, silver, copper, and plenty of other commodities have been ripping this year. The metals in particular are suddenly getting attention now that Gold passed the $3,000 mark — something JR Romero predicted early last year. Are the metals being stockpiled in advance of global financial chaos? That’s a big, big question. 8. Traders Might Get Less Miserable Based on sentiment indicators like the AAII Sentiment Survey and CNN Fear & Greed Index, traders are in a pretty rotten mood: The AAII data has been shockingly bearish for 4 straight weeks. Could traders be too pessimistic into the April 2 Tariff deadlines? That’s another big consideration. The VIX Curve was even recently inverted, though that’s resolved itself as equity markets stabilized. 9. Growth Stocks Could Lift the Mood Growth names have been under fire. The average QQQ stock is 22% off its 52-week high. The two flagships – Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR) – reversed hard off their morning lows Friday. If they continue higher, that could be a big mood enhancer for beaten-down bulls. Robinhood (HOOD), AppLovin (APP), and Reddit (RDDT) are others to watch here. 10. China Needs to Step Up Chinese stocks like Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) were hot… until they weren’t. Did that hot trade get overcrowded? FXI has pulled back less than 10% so far. Let’s see if dip buyers step up.
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