10 Things Traders Need to Know Right Now
What a week! We just saw:
- The US and China starting to play footsie under the table on trade
- Solid earnings from the 4 mega powers Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN)
- A big drop in gold
- Another victory for Bitcoin
- Lousy GDP data… plus a strong jobs report
- Stocks taking back the post-Liberation Day decline
So let's dig into the 10 Things You Need to Know About Markets Right Now.
1. We're Back Baby, Maybe…
Stocks went into a tailspin on April 2, President Trump's “Liberation Day.”
Well, we sure were liberated from our profits with the SPY going into full bear-market territory.
But what a difference a month makes because we are back above the April 2 close:
And we've seen crazy rallies in leading growth stocks like Palantir (PLTR), Applovin (APP), DoorDash (DASH), and many others.
So we're back.
But can it last? One key may be the fact that:
2. Big Hate Is Still Big Money
You know who's still bearish? Just about everybody.
The AAII Sentiment Survey still shows massive bearishness, even with SPY gaining over 17% from the April 7 low.
The blue bars in this chart show the spread between bulls and bears.
When it's below 0%, bears outnumber bulls – and that's been the case for months now:
I've said it once so I'll say it again: This embedded negativity is the best argument for an extended rebound.
And if we get a real deal with China, watch out because the bears may rush off the sidelines fast.
3. The Fed Is Dead Ahead
The big news next week is the FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday.
The Fed is not expected to cut rates, so traders will mostly be looking for signals as to what's coming down the pike.
For now it's tricky to gauge the Fed because economic data is pretty mixed.
Inflation is coming down, but still elevated on an absolute basis.
This week's GDP report was weak, but other data (like Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers) point to strength.
So instead of offering real analysis on what the Fed can do… I'll just say good luck.
4. The Powerful Palantir Reports Monday
Palantir is the #1 SPX/SPY/QQQ stock of 2025 with a blistering 61% gain.
And it reports Q1 earnings after the close Monday.
Fun fact: Palantir has rallied over 20% the day after earnings in 6 of the past 8 quarters.
Look at the column on the right – the post-earnings gains have been shocking:
Speaking of Earnings…
5. Earnings Season Has Been Pretty Good
According to FactSet, 73% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates.
And EPS growth is tracking at 10.1%, better than the 7.2% expected, thanks to larger-than-expected earnings surprises.
We've seen many companies including General Motors (GM) and United Parcel Service (UPS) pull guidance… but who was surprised by that?
6. NVIDIA (NVDA) Is Back to Superstar Status
It seems like 10 years ago that NVIDIA (NVDA) announced its $5.5 billion charge from restrictions on exports of the H20 AI chip to China.
But it was 12 days ago.
And wouldn't you know it? NVIDIA has round-tripped the whole decline:
7. Gold Is Melting Down
We discussed the risks to gold last week.
And it's been sliding as the trade situation has improved, just as equities picked up steam.
Since worries over the trade war and an earnings/economic mess were big drivers of gold, there would seem to be big downside risk to gold if the US and China make up like Derek Zoolander and Hansel:
8. Bitcoin Is BOOMING
Three weeks ago, I argued that “No One Cares About Bitcoin’s Relative Strength.”
And Bitcoin's been a quiet monster.
The IBIT ETF is up 18.9% since the end of March vs. a 1.5% gain for SPY.
Since Bitcoin held up well during the early April “Tariff Tantrum,” many market observers believed it was “decoupling” from traditional risk assets like growth stocks.
It really was digital gold.
But as trade tensions have eased, Bitcoin has just kept on trucking higher.
And if you follow leading Bitcoin name MicroStrategy (MSTR), you better watch this video to get JR Romero's “bloody insane” target price:
9. The Bio-Shock Is On
On April 14, we saw a Boston Globe article entitled “It's the end of Kendall Square as we know it. What if biotech never bounces back?”
Magazine Cover Indicator for $XBI?
Could biotech have bottomed?
cc: @epictrades1 pic.twitter.com/STIjdJBo3z
— T3 Live (@t3live) April 14, 2025
Now let's match that up with a chart:
XBI has been on fire since then, finally giving biotech longs a day in the sun.
“The Great Bio-Shock” is underway, and nobody cares because biotech can't drive clicks for big media outlets.
Last week, we ran a screen for possible biotech short squeezes using Koyfin and came up with 17 names.
Most of those stocks – like BridgeBio Pharma Inc. (BBIO), Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE), and Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX) – have been on fire.
10. It Might Be a Short King Summer
Small kicked off May on a strong note. So could it be a Short King Summer?
We scanned for stocks with these characteristics:
- Market cap between $500 million and $5 billion
- Short interest greater than 50%
- RSI over 60
We came up with 22 names:
- Trupanion Inc. (TRUP)
- Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK)
- Premier Inc. (PINC)
- Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK)
- EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc. (EYPT)
- Byrna Technologies Inc. (BYRN)
- Vital Farms Inc. (VITL)
- Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)
- Apogee Therapeutics Inc. (APGE)
- Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI)
- ArriVent BioPharma Inc. (AVBP)
- EVgo Inc. (EVGO)
- Eos Energy Enterprises Inc. (EOSE)
- Viking Therapeutics Inc. (VKTX)
- TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX)
- AnaptysBio Inc. (ANAB)
- Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON)
- Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT)
- Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX)
- Wolfspeed Inc. (WOLF)
- Intellia Therapeutics Inc. (NTLA)
- Dianthus Therapeutics Inc. (DNTH)
Interestingly, many of these are in the biotech sector – showing just how much negativity there is towards that group.
Have a great weekend folks. You earned it.
Here's a song to take you home:
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