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74% of Surveyed Traders Bullish on NVDA in Our Latest Mystery Chart Challenge.
==> Sponsored by the T3 Live Black Room – Click to Join Our FREE Open House Yesterday, we held our second Mystery Chart Challenge, which is our version of a classic blind taste test. It’s your job to analyze the chart without the influence of knowing the ticker. Here’s the chart we showed: And as you can see in the title of this article, it’s Nvidia (NVDA): Only 2 respondents guessed it right, and a third was awfully close in guessing Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). And how do surveyed traders* feel about Nvidia, based on the blank chart alone? *this is NOT some kind of scientific sample and we can’t promise any statistical significance, so please take these numbers with a very large grain of salt Very positive, as it turns out. 73.7% said they were bullish based on the chart along. 15.8% said they were bearish. And 10.5% were in the middle! Stay tuned for our next Mystery Chart Challenge! To ensure you get notice to participate next time, sign up for our free newsletter here.
Continue Reading -->Mystery Chart #2: Are You Bullish or Bearish?
==> Sponsored by the T3 Live Black Room – Click to Join Our FREE Open House It’s been far too long since we’ve issued a mystery chart challenge! This is our version of a classic blind taste test. Here’s how it works: We’re giving you a 6-month daily chart with 10/20/50/200 day moving averages, and no name. It’s your job to analyze the chart without the influence of knowing the ticker. Last time, 179 people participated… and a lot of them were angry to find out they were bullish on the gold miners (GDX). Here’s the latest mystery chart for you to analyze: Are you bullish or bearish? Enter your vote below, and guess the ticker if you dare. Make sure you hit the submit button so we can log your entry. Tomorrow, we’ll reveal which chart this is, and post the results. Good luck! Loading…
Continue Reading -->7 Keys to Being a More Consistent and More Profitable Active Trader
Want to start earning consistent profits as a trader?Good. You’re in the right place, because we’re going to talk about some topics that get ignored all-too often in the trading world.7. Take a Loss Without Freaking OutHere’s a sign that you’re going down the wrong path as a trader: you lose a few hundred bucks, and you freak out. You slam your keyboard down, you use some foul language, and you want to quit.This is bad, bad, bad! Here’s a harsh reality that too few people in the trading industry talk about: losing is part of winning.If you can’t deal with losses, you’ll never make it.6. Hit a Home Run Without Freaking OutOn the flip side, you shouldn’t get too excited when you nail a trade that lands $6K in your bank account.Why? Because trading requires a steady hand. And you can’t let your excitement cloud your judgement.And if you’re progressing in the right way, winning will be just another day at the office! 5. Talk to Traders That Are More Experienced and More Successful Than YouEven the most elite professional athletes hire coaches in the off-season. They know the value of an expert’s point of view.Trading is no different. If you’re not getting the results you want, by definition you need help. So talk to more successful traders about your troubles. Odds are, they’ve been down the same road you have, and they can help.4. Know the Difference Between a Breakout and a FakeoutThe media wants you to believe that every tick up or down is a big deal.To succeed as a trader, you must be able to tell the difference between real moves and fake moves. And you must be able to tell that difference instantly.If you can’t look at a chart and break it down in short order, you may need additional training.3. Actually Learn a Real Trading Method99% of traders are operating at random. They use a random collection of tactics learned from books, videos, and online forums.The most successful traders are systems-oriented. They use trading methodologies where all the elements — market analysis, entries/exits, risk management. etc. — work together.This prevents you from trading on feelings and emotions.2. Put Some Real Time InYou can learn a lot about trading in a few days. But making money on a consistent basis takes time.Making money in and of itself is a skill. Only through experience can you learn what it’s like to deal with an overly volatile market, or your ego spinning out of control after a great trade.Focus on learning a process and methodology over time, and you’ll gain true control over your trading. You also need to give yourself time to succeed — there are no overnight successes in this business.1. Improve Your Batting AverageHere’s an obvious truth that too many people ignore: if you want to turn your trading account in a paycheck, you need to win more often.You need more accurate entries and exits. And you need to make more money on each trade.It’s not easy, but it is simple: win more often, lose less often, and you get more consistent returns.Do you want more consistent results?Are you ready to put some time in to take your trading to the next level?And are you ready to get mentored by expert traders that have conquered the challenges you’re facing right now?Then check out the T3 Live Ultimate Profit Solution. –> Learn about the Ultimate Profit Solution
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today? We’re with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, including: Scott Redler Tracks IQ’s Major Breakout Tesla Model 3 gets Consumer Reports recommendation after braking update; shares hit session high This Trader Averaged $1,170/Day in Profit Doing Something He Loves And more! So check out these links right now and get up to speed! 1) Scott Redler Tracks IQ’s Major Breakout (T3 Live)Always watch for new names to add to your Go To List, especially hot new and recent issues that give us lots of movement. Watch the Video -> 2) U.S. first-quarter growth trimmed on weak consumer spending (Reuters)U.S. economic growth slowed slightly more than initially thought in the first quarter as consumer spending rose at its weakest pace in nearly five years, but activity is already picking up against the backdrop of a tightening labor market and tax cuts. Read the Article -> 3) Stocks Rally as Fading Italy Woes Sink Treasuries: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg)Stocks rose along with Treasury yields as investors deemed the market reaction to Italy’s political turmoil overwrought. The dollar slipped and oil rose. Read the Article 4) This Trader Averaged $1,170/Day in Profit Doing Something He Loves (T3 Live)Sami Abusaad can tell you he’s a real trader. But he’s going to let the numbers do the talking. Watch the Video -> 5) Bill Gross’ flagship fund cratered as Italy’s political turmoil rocked global markets (Business Insider)Bill Gross’ Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund cratered on Tuesday as the political turmoil in Italy sparked a sharp sell-off in the country’s bonds and sent investors rushing into safer debt. Read the Article -> 6) Tesla Model 3 gets Consumer Reports recommendation after braking update; shares hit session high (CNBC)Consumer Reports said Wednesday it now recommends the TeslaModel 3, reversing an earlier decision over the car’s long stopping distance and other issues. Read the Article -> 7) Is the 18-Year Cycle Giving Traders Whiplash? (T3 Live)Given the parallels with 2000, being agile with positions and opinions will pay dividends. Watch the Video -> 8)Amazon begins nationwide expansion of Whole Foods discounts for Prime members (TechCrunch)Amazon introduced 10 percent savings at Whole Foods for Prime members earlier this month, and today it kicked off a nationwide expansion of the initiative. Read the Article -> 9) Why Banks Were Looking Bearish Before the Italy Scare (T3 Live)Rob Smith points out that bearish setups were already in place for the banks BEFORE the Italy catalyst. Read the Article -> 10) Why I Don’t Read Books (Dan Lok)Entrepreneur Dan Lok has an unusual take on reading books:
Continue Reading -->Trader’s Digest: The 10 Stories We’re Reading Right Now
Wonder what traders are talking about today? We’re with the top 10 stories we’re sharing with colleagues today, including: Why We Got Long BOX Last Week Is the dollar rally going further? Chartists think so How to Stay in the Game, Even When You’re Down And more! So check out these links right now and get up to speed! 1) Why We Got Long BOX Last Week (T3 Live)Jeff Cooper captures a fast swing trade profit in a hot momentum stock. Watch the Video -> 2) Oil Jumps, Treasury Yield Tops 3% as Stocks Climb (Bloomberg)Oil rallied after President Donald Trump’s decision to walk away from a nuclear deal with Iran, while the dollar slipped and 10-year Treasury yields topped 3 percent ahead of a key bond auction. Read the Article -> 3) Is the dollar rally going further? Chartists think so (Reuters)Enter your text here… Read the Article 4) How to Stay in the Game, Even When You’re Down (T3 Live)We all experience adversity. How you handle it separates the winners from those who never succeed. Watch the Video -> 5) Lawyers Don’t Understand How Buybacks Work (A Wealth of Common Sense)Enter your text here… Read the Article -> 6) What is Walmart’s global plan? (CNN Money)Walmart is revamping its global strategy.On Wednesday, Walmart announced it would pay around $16 billion for a majority stake in Flipkart, India’s largest online retailer. Read the Article -> 7) How a Pro Options Trader Manages an Open Position (T3 Live)Entries are easy. Trade management is where the real money is made. Watch the Video -> 8) Tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya: I’m a Warren Buffett ‘disciple,’ but he’s wrong about bitcoin (T3 Live)Billionaire investor Warren Buffett is wrong about bitcoin, tech venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya said Wednesday. Read the Article -> 9) Identifying “Exhaustion Risk” For a Short Sale Opportunity (T3 Live)Rob Smith walks through a trade in LGIH so you can learn to identify “exhaustion risk.” Watch the Video -> 10) Top 20 Motivation Tips (Zen Habits)This article is a list of tips and tricks that, if used in combination, are a nearly sure way to achieve your goals. Watch the Video ->
Continue Reading -->T3 Live’s Mystery Chart #1 Revealed!
Yesterday, we played a little game. We posted this mystery chart, and asked traders whether they were bullish or bearish on it, and to guess the ticker: Before we reveal the answer, let’s see whether traders were bullish or bearish on this particular ticker: 52.7% were bullish, 30.4% were bearish, and 16.9% were in the middle. And the ticker is… GDX! 7 people guessed it right in our survey (and even more did on Twitter). A few other traders were close, guessing other gold instruments like GLD and NUGT. So what do you think? Should we do this again next week? Let us know in the comments!
Continue Reading -->Are You Bullish or Bearish on This Mystery Chart?
UPDATE!: We revealed the mystery chart here. Hi all! We’re doing a little experiment here. Here is a year-to-date daily chart of a mystery stock. Are you bullish or bearish on it? Scroll down to cast your vote, and guess the ticker! (only 3 people have it right so far…) Loading…
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Traders Are Still Scarred Up from the February Collapse
The market’s been up for 5 of the past 6 days. So do traders believe the February volatility spike is behind us? The numbers say no. While the overall mood is improving, traders have not become positive. They’re actually leaning neutral to slightly bearish. This implies that the recent downturn left some scars… and perhaps that means there’s upside fuel still on the sidelines. Let’s go through our sentiment indicators so you can see what I mean. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Neutral On Tuesday, February 6, the VIX hit a multi-year high at 50.30. Then it slowly drifted back into a more “historically normal” range between 16 and 20. Following the better-than-expected jobs report on Friday morning, it fell as low as 13.31, a level not seen since February 1. The VIX curve spent much of February inverted, but now it’s normalizing. The 3-months spread is around +2.00, which is neutral. Traders are clearly scaling back their expectations for volatility as markets climb, which isn’t at all out of the ordinary. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 25, which up from 8 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 25 means traders are fearful. So traders are fearful, but less so. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bearish The American Association of Individual Investors said that just 26.4% of individual investors are bullish. This is a major decline from from 37.3% last week, and it’s the lowest reading since August 31, 2017. it should be noted that individual investors tend to lag the market — it takes them a while to get more bullish when the market’s rising, and longer to get bearish when the market’s declining. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The newest reading of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.61. This is the fourth straight number under the 0.654 long-term average. The 10-day moving average is now 0.62, which is slightly below that long-term average. Options traders were insanely bullish from December through early February. Then they got incredibly bearish as markets started breaking down. Now they’re looking neutral to modestly bullish. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 0 bullish (down from 1 last week) 2 neutral (up from 1 last week) 2 bearish (flat from last week) Sentiment is still looking neutral to modestly bearish. Traders are clearly in a much better mood than they were at the February 9 low, but they’re not quite buying in whole-hog just yet. It may take a break above the February 27 interim high at 2789 to get traders convinced we can head back to all-time highs: The market’s been up for 5 of the last 6 days. That’s nice to see. And it’s even nicer to see that traders haven’t gone bullish. This implies that there are still people on the sidelines who can pile into the market. In particular, there seems to be a lot of doubt among individual investors, who tend to lag the market a bit. Typically, they take longer to get bullish when the market goes up. So perhaps that means we have more room to run from here.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Are There Still Too Many Bulls?
Last week, the market was in the most boring position possible. Stocks were consolidating and sentiment looked just a tad bearish. So there was no extreme in the technical position of the markets, and no extreme in sentiment either. That mad it hard to have a firm opinion on where things could go. We started the week on a happy note, before the bears took control and put in 4 straight down days. So let’s take a look at our sentiment indicators to see if the bulls are freaking out. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish On Tuesday, February 6, the VIX hit a multi-year high at 50.30. Then it slowly drifted back into a more “historically normal” range between 16 and 20. But it’s hovering around 25 on Friday as the fear gets ratcheted up. The VIX curve is still inverted, with a 3-month spread around -6.00 This means traders are still pricing in significant volatility, which makes sense. Ever since volatility exploded in early February, we’ve seen a huge expanion in range. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 8, which is dowm from 15 last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 8 means traders are very fearful (or bearish). 3) AAII Sentiment – Neutral Sentiment among individual investors is turning. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) said that 37.3% of individual investors are bullish, according to their latest survey. This is a substantial change from last week, when 44.7% of investors were bullish. The long-term average is 38.4%, so 37.3% is more or less neutral. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The newest reading of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.72. The 10-day moving average is now 0.623, which is slightly below the long-term average of 0.654. Options traders were insanely bullish from December through early February. Then they got incredibly bearish as markets started breaking down. Now they’re looking modestly bullish. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 1 bullish (flat from last week) 1 neutral (flat from 0 last week) 2 bearish (flat from 3 last week) Sentiment is still modestly bearish. I’d argue that it’s just a little more negative than last week, and certainly not indicative of panic. This is good for the bears. If the market keeps declining, there are still plenty of bulls that can be turned bearish, which could mean more negative selling pressure. The bears should be most excited about the CBOE equity put-call ratio, which indicates a lot of call option demand over the past couple of weeks. Typically, we see very bearish CBOE equity put-call reading around market bottoms, and we’re not even close to that. I’d like to see a 10-day moving average above 0.7, and a 1-day reading over 0.8. An extreme 1-day reading sometimes marks short-term capitulation. Unfortunately, we won’t have Friday’s reading until the evening. So I’ll keep everyone posted Monday morning to see if things change.
Continue Reading -->Sentiment Report: Volatile Markets, Neutral Traders
In last week’s sentiment report, traders were somewhat fearful, even with stocks rising like a phoenix off the February 9 low. Since that low, we had: -6 straight days up with markets finishing near the highs each day -2 down days -1 anemic up day with a finish near the day’s lows So let’s measure how traders are feeling in this new age of volatility. (click here for a primer on the sentiment indicators below) 1) VIX Spread – Bearish On Tuesday, February 6, the VIX hit a multi-year high at 50.30, and it’s slowly drifted back under 20, which puts it within range of historical norms. The VIX curve is still inverted, with a 3-month spread around -1.5. This means traders are still pricing in significant volatility, which makes sense. Ever since volatility exploded in early February, we’ve seen a huge expansion in range. (click here for a primer on the VIX spread) 2) CNN Fear & Greed Index – Bearish The Fear & Greed Index is at 15, which is flat from last week. This index operates on a 0-100 scale, and a reading of 15 means traders are very fearful (or bearish). This is a shocking change. Fear & Greed was at 76 just a month ago. 3) AAII Sentiment – Bullish The American Association of Individual Investors’ Sentiment Survey shows that 44.7% of those surveyed are bullish. This is down 3.8% from last week’s 48.5% reading. The long-term average is 38.4%, so we’re back in bullish territory. But keep in mind that AAII sentiment tends to lag the action a bit. It was pretty neutral for most of 2017, even with markets hitting one record high after another. 4) CBOE Equity Put-Call – Neutral The long-term average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio is 0.63. The 10-day moving average is now 0.662, which is basically in-line with the long-term average of 0.654. Options traders were insanely bullish from December through early February. Then they got incredibly bearish as markets started breaking down. Now they’re looking neutral. Conclusion Out of 4 sentiment indicators, we have: 1 bullish (flat from last week) 1 neutral (up from 0 last week) 2 bearish (dowm from 3 last week) Ack! We’re in the most boring positions possible. Stocks are consolidating and sentiment looks just a tad bearish. There’s no extreme in the technical position of the markets, and there’s no extreme in sentiment either. That makes it hard to have a firm opinion on where things can go from here, but here’s an ideal possible scenario for the bulls. We keep bouncing sideways for the next month or so, perhaps between 2660 and 2760, with several breakdowns and breakouts that don’t have follow-through. If that happens, perhaps bearish sentiment will build up to provide the market with upside fuel for a breakout back towards the 2872.87 high. On the flip side, the best scenario for the bears would be a slow, ugly descent before a major break below the SPX’ 200 day moving average, which was lost and then quickly reclaimed on the big 2/9 rebound day. Here’s an SPX chart laying out these levels: Another thing to wonder about is whether we’ve set a higher baseline range for the VIX. As you can see, it spent an awful lot of time between 9 and 15, which was outrageously low. It will be interesting to see if traders price in a “closer to normal” range for expected volatility. (Related: Primer on the VIX)
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