All posts by Scott Redler
FXI Is up 37% – Here’s Where It’s Going Next
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are -8 as we see if it can hold 5690ish this week, or if they shake the tree lower. Semis lost momentum Friday and are lower today as China wants their companies to buy Huawei’s new chip. But the big story is FXI up another 2.5% today, putting it up over 37% on the year. I said many times that China was having its 2007-2008 moment, and I talked about accumulating FXI many times. Last week was huge if you targeted it actively. Resistance is in the $32-$33 area, but it can see $37 to $39 this year. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA gave us a nice buyable active sequence from $235 up to $261+. Deliveries are Tuesday, so that’s important. I’ll have some calls on, but I did sell my stock pre-market as it hit $262 with the market seeming vulnerable. $257ish is some active support, then $251.50 is key. MU gapped up post-earnings to help the semis last week. It’s in that post-earnings gap. See if it gives a 5-15-30 minute low to hold a portion, or if it reclaims $107.03 to relieve pressure. NVDA gave a nice move from the $118 area up to $127 last Thursday and then failed to hold $121.80. This morning, there’s talk China wants Huawei’s new chip instead of. NVDA’s. $118-$118.50 is active support. $119.26 is Friday’s low. If this area fails, $115ish is key. VKTX was a nice trade from $50 to $70 for many. Some late November or December calls might make sense into this pullback. DASH was a big mover from $127ish up to $146 to get us smaller. It gets very interesting again into the $139-$140 area. Friday’s low is $142.12. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Don’t Fall in Love with Your Opinions Fall in love with a process that helps you succeed. Not your opinions. Some traders go into every situation with a preconceived notion about what should happen. For example, some traders are in love with a particular name. And no matter what happens in the price action, they find a way to be bullish on that stock. That’s why I take an ‘if-then’ approach to trading. I have opinions like anyone else, but my respect for what the action tells me what really matters. This Week’s Calendar We have some big earnings reports this week from PAYX and NKE, but the real focus will be all the jobs data – especially the Friday nonfarm payrolls repot. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-30 at 8.20.37 AM
Continue Reading -->Amazon Can Break THIS Again
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX hit a high of 5733 after the Fed cut rates 50bp. We’ll see how the market digits into what some say will be the toughest two weeks through year-end. We’ll see if 5651-5674 holds, or if volatility picks up. We had a few nice opportunities in tech last week. Now we see if the QQQ’s can hold $478 to keep commitment to the recent rally. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AMZN became another nice swing long since reclaiming all the moving averages around $178-$179. It hit a high of $191.84 Friday. I’d think it can break back over the $200 area again. However, I only want to buy it on dips because chasing it doesn’t work. META finally cleared the 8-month channel and paid traders in many ways. I did have calls on it as it hit $564, and our Power Plays service is still in half. This morning it’s higher. I’d trim and look to buy dips. NVDA had a big sell imbalance last week, so it was on the weaker side. We’ll see if that changes now. $115.39 is Friday’s low to trade against. I’d like to see this wake up. $113 is a big spot. Below that, it can be a headwind. Above $118.65 and it might get more upside volume. DASH has been a great focus and the $128 area. It’s had multiple upgrades and looks like it’s going much higher. RDDT is still building a huge base from the IPO. Last time it tried to break out, it failed. I did buy some last Monday. It cleared $62 to see $67+ to manage. $61ish needs to hold. It can also accelerate higher. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Treat Trading Like a Business Trading attracts people with competitive, individualistic mindsets. But it’s actually a team sport. I can promise you, I would not be where I am today without the support of my partners and colleagues. They made me better, and I hope I’ve made them better. So get out there and start talking with your fellow traders, whether it’s online or off. When a group regularly shares ideas and techniques, everyone gets better. This Week’s Calendar Today will be quiet, but this week is big with the PCE Price Index, GDP, Durable Goods, and other economic reports. Plus, Micron (MU) and Costco (COST) earnings will be in focus. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-23 at 7.46.32 AM
Continue Reading -->5 Names I’m Watching Post-FOMC
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. We have mostly green arrows around the world as stocks power higher. The Fed cut 50bp, and yesterday was a tug of war in the U.S. markets. Yesterday, I warned that the day after Fed Day is much more important. Today SPX futures are +80 and we are looking at new all-time highs. QQQ looks above the mid-level downtrend pivot line of $477-$478. We’ll see if that holds and builds. XBI is flirting with the $103 area again. This time, it looks like the rally will stick and I see potential for a move to $110 to $115. Now let’s dig into some individual names: NVDA was super weak yesterday. We’ll see if that changes today. $118-$119 is a key spot. If it can get and stay above that, the semis can get better. Watch it for clues today. AMZN became another nice swing long since reclaiming all the moving averages around $178-$179. I managed the trade. I still have it. I’ll trim and hold as we see if it can hold $189ish to build or fade. DASH has been a great focus from the $128 area. It was upgraded this morning and looks over $137+ to manage. It could see $143+ in time. RDDT is still building a huge base from the IPO. The last time it tried to break out, it failed. It has a decent base now. I did buy some Monday and yesterday. I’ll trim and trail but this should be on the radar. CORZ has been great to us. I bought stock around $10.20 and now it’s at $12.60+ to manage. It can hit $18 to $20 in the months ahead. This moves with BTC but is much better than most miners. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-19 at 9.33.58 AM
Continue Reading -->Why Apple Looks Worse Than Tesla Right Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. We have mixed/quiet markets as we head into the FOMC this week. The debate is whether we get a 25bp or 50bp cut. The reaction on Wednesday will be key. Will we get and stay above SPX 5651 for real and see 5750+, or do we get a major Red Dog Reversal sell-the-news move around that level? That’s the question. Tech showed relative strength last Wednesday for the first time since the July top. QQQ cleared all the moving averages to hit $476+ on Friday to adjust. AAPL is down 2% on slower iPhone orders. See if they isolate this to AAPL, or if it weigh son all of tech today. There is decent support at $467-$469. Let’s get into some individual names: AAPL is down 2% as headlines say iPhone 16 sales are lighter than expected. I have the 12 and it doesn’t seem like there’s any reason to upgrade. They need a foldable phone or some exciting new AI features. $217ish is a big spot. Does it make a low in the first 5-15-30 minutes or trend down all day? I’m glad it’s lagged to keep us out recently. TSLA seems like one of the better set-ups this week. I’m long from lower levels. It needs to hold $224. If it can get and stay above $235 with volume, it can be a nice momentum add to fill the gap up to $245. MSFT got better with tech. It cleared $410 and $416 to open the door for a move back to $431ish. Today there is a Co-Pilot event. Take a little care. $427 is upper support. DASH is getting more institutional interest and support. Actively, it cleared $126 to see $133+ last week. I’d like to see it hold $129ish to set up for a move toward $143. ASTS: It’s nice when a plan comes together. I sold puts last Monday as a synthetic long, and bought the stock Thursday. Then it crossed $27.05 and $28.40 to see $30.93 to adjust. We’ll see if we can add to go red to green today to manage the trade. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Treat Trading Like a Business The average person on the street thinks trading is like hitting the craps table at the Bellagio. But trading is a business just like any other. You have to balance your books every month, make it through slowdowns, and most of all, not put yourself at risk of bankruptcy. Sometimes I talk to people about my career and they think I have gigantic swings every day. NOTHING could be further from the truth. My trading account is a business I run to pay my bills. It’s not a hobby! This Week’s Calendar It’s all about the Fed this week with the rate decision on Wednesday: P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! Scott’s Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-16 at 8.30.04 AM
Continue Reading -->Today’s Apple & Nvidia Game Plans
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are +38 after a close on the lows Friday. There is no real reason for the bounce, but the Oscillator went out at -45, which was oversold into CPI and PPI this week. Today is the AAPL iPhone event and ORCL earnings are after the close. We’ll see if early strength holds or fades. There is some resistance at 5458, but the real rubber match spot for the week is 5480-5522. The big debate is whether we get 25bp or 50bp on 9/18, and Fed expectations are for 112bp of cuts still for 2024. Now let’s dig into some individual names: AAPL will be important today. The iPhone event starts at 1:00. Some reports suggest that a few AI features will not be in the new phone. $225ish is pivot resistance. If this breaks and closes below $219.77, it would bring out some sellers. Keep that level on your radar. NVDA gave us clues to take risk down last week as it broke the $116-$117 area to see a low of $100.95 on Friday. We’ll see how it reacts today. Does it get rejected into the $104-$105 area or does it squeeze a bit? If it goes from green to red, it will bring out sellers. TSLA got hit hard and fast on Friday, getting most actively out or short. This morning it’s up with the futures. There is news that China sales aren’t as bad as some thought. The first resistance area is $215-$219 – see how it acts there. SMCI went from $1229 to a low of $382 on Friday. Shows you anything can always happen. Trends and moving averages matter. I guess see if it holds the morning strength or fades. Most are avoiding it. PLTR finally got added to the S&P 500. I did take calls for it. We’ll see if early strength holds or fades. I will trim some and hold some for the week. $33 is the recent high area. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Give Yourself a Chance I talk a lot about keeping your ego in check. But at the end of the day, you’ve got to believe in yourself. You need to know that you can develop trading skills and apply them in the real world with real money on the line. One of the biggest mistakes you can make is not giving yourself a fair chance. Too many aspiring traders never get started because they don’t think they can do it. They’ll spend all day paper trading and reading books, but they’ll never actually pull the trigger. So get started. Smart small, but start! This Week’s Calendar This is a big week. Aside from today’s AAPL event and ORCL earnings, we have the CPI, PPI, ECB rate decision. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays! Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-09 at 8.28.48 AM
Continue Reading -->The #1 Question Traders Are Asking Right Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. We have mixed markets around the world as we head into the last 4 months of the year. Market expectations call for 103bp of cuts for 2024, so economic data is important into the Fed on 9/18. The #1 question right now is “how dovish can Powell be with the SPX 2% or so off all-time highs?” The upper range was lost, and most sectors are challenged. QQQ, SMH, and Mag 7 names feel bent or broken technically, while utilities and value are doing better. Tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report is important because it will help the Fed decide on a 50bp cut as hopes for a soft landing persist. IWM showed relative weakness early Tuesday and broke the $216-$218 area to resolve the pocket pivot lower. Yesterday was a decent red to green trade. Now it’s harder. The recent low is $211.71. It could do anything on Friday, so take care. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA showed relative signal the past two sessions, getting me tactically long. It’s up this morning above the $222-$224 area. I did trim some, but we’ll see if it can hold gains with the news of its software release in China. NVDA earnings report was not enough to ignite it. On Tuesday, it led the tape lower below the $116-$117 area. It hit a low of $104.12 and gave a small bounce yesterday. I tried some and am already out. It doesn’t look great. See how it handles yesterday’s low of $104.12. ASTS is getting a lot of attention. It’s hard to buy up here, but if you’re long, $27 needs to hold. If you’re short, take care if it clears the $39 upper pivot area. On August 8th, GLD got over $222ish to get some active longs back in. It cleared $229 to see the $234 area. It’s a bit sloppy up here and $228 needs to hold if you’re active. See if early strength holds or not. GOOGL showed the most relative weakness in the bounce sequence since the 8/5 lows. Yesterday, it broke its inside wedge lower. See if it’s the first name to test 8/5 lows ($154.93). Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-05 at 8.20.26 AM
Continue Reading -->My Tesla Game Plan – Watch THIS Level
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are -28 after Friday’s afternoon rally which took us to the upper end of the two-week range. It’s been a choppy trade with lots of false moves. We’ll see if dip buyers defend the 5581 active support area. A close below that, and I think active traders like me might reduce risk again. 5651 is key upper support. This week, we have Manufacturing ISM at 10 a.m. today, AVGO earnings after the close Thursday, and the NFP report on Friday. Now let’s dig into some individual names: TSLA showed a little power on Friday and is up a little this morning in a sea of red. I’m long small, and if it can hold the $214 area, I’d think it has some room towards $224ish. AAPL led the move off the 8/5 lows, and it’s been above the 8-day since then. If you’re active, I’d use $227.48 as key support. A break of that, and it can give clues that tech might be pressured, so keep your eyes on it. AMZN had its first relative strength day in a while. It cleared the $174 area to see $178.90 on Friday. It’s down small this morning. Let’s see if it can go red to green and continue to get better. AFRM gave us a pro earnings gap to trade against at $37.52, and then Friday went red to green to see $44.89 for extra cash flow. That gap needs to hold. LLY held the $825 pro earnings gap and regained leadership again. It’s been above the 8-day since then. Buying a dip is easier than trying to add on strength. It tagged the $972 ATH last week but faded, so watch size if you’re active. $930ish is key upper support. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Develop a Pro Mindset You can have a 180 IQ, but to succeed, you’ve got to adopt the mindset of a pro. Pros don’t think about Ferraris and private jets while they’re trading. We think about what we could lose. When you’re doing this for a living, your paycheck can actually be negative if you give enough money back. So always keep the worst case scenario in mind, and be ready to act to avoid it. Because while it’s important to win, it’s equally important to not lose. Every penny you avoid losing is another penny you don’t have to earn. This Week’s Calendar This week, we have Manufacturing ISM at 10 a.m. today, AVGO earnings after the close Thursday (key for semis & AI names), and the NFP report on Friday. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-09-03 at 8.07.05 AM
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler on Fox Business: We Need an NVDA Blowout
On Tuesday, August 27, Scott Redler appeared on Fox Business’ “The Claman Countdown” to discuss the economy, Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and more: Scott goes over: Why he doesn’t expect a serious recession What it will take to make the Fed cut rates the way The Street expects Why Nvidia (NVDA) needs blowout earnings Key levels to watch in NVDA Why Scott put on an NVDA call spread to define his risk How Apple (AAPL) could get to all-time highs again Scott’s Positions Disclosures as of 2024-08-27 at 4.15.48 PM
Continue Reading -->Nvidia Earnings Week – These Levels Matter Now
Brought to You By Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. SPX futures are +11 as the market is pricing in 34bp of rate cuts at the 9/18 meeting and 105bp of rate cuts for 2024, which could be aggressive. The 9/6 jobs report will be important, along with the July PCE on 8/30 and the August CPI on 9/11. We’ll see if early strength holds or fades. 5643 is pivot resistance – does it get and stay above? If so, 5669 is the July high. If we fade, 5560 is key support for the week. Now let’s dig into some individual names: NVDA helped lead the way after it gave us the 8/5 bottom trade. Then it cleared $106.50 to open the door for higher prices. Last Thursday, it failed to hold $130, giving us some clues that we can fade. It sold down all day with a low of $123.10. Friday’s action trapped some sellers. Results are Wednesday. See if it holds the $130-$130.75 area or fades again. We’ll see where it is on Wednesday for earnings option strategies. I said AMD can be better during this recent active bullish sequence. Some bought as it cleared the $138 area. It hit $162 last week. It needs to hold the $148 area. It might sit out until Wednesday’s NVDA results. SMCI seems to have a nice setup. Some are already long vs. $595. Others are waiting to see if it can get and stay above $632 then $640 to fill that gap up to $660ish at least. We might need NVDA’s results before it can resolve. GOOGL has been the worst Mag 7 name since the corrective phase. Some are trying to play this for some catch-up. $163 needs to hold. On August 8th, GLD cleared $222ish to get some active longs back in. It cleared $229 to see the $234 area. It’s starting the week green. $229 needs to hold. Those asset allocators buying every month for years are getting rewarded. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Focus on Execution First, Money Second If you get good at anything, the money’s going to come eventually. So focus on developing your skills and properly executing the strategies you learn. That’s what’s going to keep you in the game for the long run. Fast money leaves just as fast as it arrived. You want to develop a set of trading strategies that can give you consistent profits, no matter what’s happening in the market. Once your brain gets big, your wallet follows. This Week’s Calendar Things start off slow this week but heat up fast with earnings from NVDA, CRM, CRWD, CRM, DELL, MRVL, and others. Plus, we have the important PCE Price Index report and GDP. P.S. Don’t forget to check out Scott Redler’s Power Plays – Get My #1 Idea Every Week. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-08-26 at 8.41.57 AM
Continue Reading -->META Is On My Mind – Here’s Why
Brought to You By Power Plays SPX futures are +12, giving some upside follow-through to last week’s bounce. PPI and CPI are coming up. These are the scenarios I have in mind: Scenario A: If we get inline/lower PPI and CPI, perhaps this bounce gets one more push towards the 5383 gap or even 5440ish (major spot). Scenario B: If the PPI/CPI is a bit hot, we can test some levels from last week starting near 5250ish. Last week’s low is 5119.Today I’d trim and trail as we just had a nice tradable move from last week, so get much more selective now. Now let’s dig into some individual names: META moved up the Mag7 Go-to list after the reaction to earnings. It’s still in a huge channel, but when this market gets better, this could be at new all-time highs first. The $492 area needs to hold. The next two resistance pivots are $527 and then $542. AAPL was a great focus one week ago into the $196-$202 re-test area. It hit $216.78 Friday. I’d reduce. $220ish will probably be big resistance if it sees it. If you don’t want to sell the name, maybe sell some calls to collect premium. NVDA was a focus last Monday and a great scoop into the $90.69 area. It’s very tight. We’ll see what it wants to do this week. It’s up a bit this morning. $103ish is active support. In order to tack on more gains, it will need to get and stay above $106.60, then $108.80 is above. PLTR reported earnings last week. Some are long vs. $25.57. It’s good to see a name like this holding gains in this environment. It hit an all-time high of $30.36. Manage your size. UNG was great from $15 to $20+ into June. It’s up pre-market around $14.70ish. This can hit $17.50+ish September/October. I bought some calls early last week. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Trading Tip for This Week: Don’t Overcomplicate Things Don’t get caught up chasing every bright shiny object and every new flavor of the month. You don’t need to know 100 strategies and 2,000 stocks. You can make a lot of money trading just a few strategies and a core group of 10-20 stocks that you know well. If you read my stuff, you know that my universe isn’t that big. I focus on 20-30 tech and momentum names while rotating other groups of interest in and out. It’s working for me, so why complicate things? Once you have your core strategies and stocks in place and you’re making money, you can start looking to expand your coverage. But don’t complicate things before then This Week’s Calendar We have a busy week coming with the US CPI & PPI reports, plus some big retail earnings. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-08-12 at 8.17.08 AM
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