Blood On the Street?
We just got the February jobs report, which was mostly in-line with a headline number of 151K. The big question everyone is asking me is “Is It Blood On The Street Time?” For now, the answer is… no. As of 9:23 am this morning, SPY is up about 20 cents and the QQQ’s are flatlining. So this does not feel like a major inflection point. One buying scenario I had in mind was a real miss on the jobs report with a hard push down to the SPY $565 area and a close dead on the lows. That was where I wanted to put money to work. But the market does not always conform to my plans, so I’m instead going to map out levels and take what the day gives me. Right now, SPY $570.12 is key. That’s yesterday’s low. If the bears break us below that, there could be more downside to the $565 area, which could set up a good long opportunity. I’m also watching these levels as key indicators for risk and sentiment: QQQ: $496.20 IWM: $203.09 NVDA: $110 TSLA: $260 AMZN: $178 PLTR $78 The more of these levels break, the more aggressive the selling can get. Broadcom (AVGO) is also key. If it can’t hold its post-earnings gains, what would be bad for the market. From a more macro perspective, the SPY is just 5% off the highs. Historically, the average pullback is about 13%. And I think we’ll see at least one like that this year, with the potential for SPY to see $542 or $528. Remember, we’re coming off a 25% gain in 2024 and a 26% gain in 2023, without much volatility along the way. Sooner or later, things will average out and we’ll see some downside. But until those key levels I listed above break, we will not likely see a major inflection point. This is why we focus on price action and not opinions. The market rarely does what you think it “should.” *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-03-07 at 9.19.55 AM
Continue Reading -->My New Gold Target After a 24% Gain
JR Romero has been a HUGE gold bull — and he just announced a new price target — which we’re sharing below. On April 10, 2024, JR said that Gold would pass through $2,400 to hit $3,000. And this is what’s happened: Gold just hit a high of $2,956, coming within 2% of JR’s $3,000+ prediction. So we went back to JR for an update on where gold is going next. JR said “Gold still looks bullish and it’s probably going to surpass my $3,000 target. There are a lot of geopolitical factors pushing gold higher. But being a technical trader, I focus on the chart. And the chart says we will have another extended leg up to $3,225.” So if you followed JR into Gold, you’d be sitting on a 24% gain, with even more upside ahead. He’s also been very bullish on Silver. And you can see on the chart that Gold and Silver are CRUSHING equities in 2025. Silver is up 13% and Gold is up 11%. The SPY is DOWN nearly 3%.
Continue Reading -->Technical Analysis vs Market Dynamics with Derrick Oldensmith
Many traders rely solely on technical analysis and charts for their trading. But professional trader Derrick Oldensmith has evolved over time to pay attention to market dynamics. Derrick explains technical analysis vs market dynamics and how he uses them together in his trading: You’ll learn: What is included in market dynamics How technical analysis and market dynamics are both the study of supply and demand How to use the two strategies together in your trading Derrick’s positions as of 12:12pm ET March 4, 2024 Derrick Oldensmith is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG’), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary. T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG. Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG. It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed. Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG. All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision. The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.
Continue Reading -->I Bought 12,000 Shares of TSLL (leveraged TSLA ETF)
Sami Abusaad believes the QQQ’s have bottomed and could go all-out bullish from here. He also explains why he loaded the boat with TSLL (a 2X TSLA ETF): Sami goes over: The 2 crypto coins he still likes after the big weekend surge after President Trump announced a Bitcoin strategic reserve Why the QQQ’s uptrend will not break A healthcare REIT that could skyrocket The beaten-down old-school semiconductor name with big upside potential Why he likes Tesla (TSLA) here The China names he still likes Why he is not in a rush to put shorts on And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting in April.
Continue Reading -->David Prince Says Trade Less Right Now
The market has shifted drastically in the past few weeks. And many traders are hurting themselves by trading too many positions. David Prince explains the importance of trading less in the current environment: David discusses: How trading less allows you to not be controlled by the market Why to focus on the best ideas The importance of taking your wins How the best traders adjust quickly Get David’s new free ebook here.
Continue Reading -->NVIDIA: 4 Sell Signals in One Day
I came into NVIDIA’s (NVDA) fourth-quarter earnings report expecting some level of disappointment. I told Power Plays Options Subscribers the following on Wednesday: I believe NVIDIA (NVDA) is at risk of a post-earnings decline so I am adding this position: Long NVDA February 28 $120 Puts These puts look good in the $2.75 to $3.50 area (or lower). With Nvidia’s decline off its highs and lower valuation, some believe a lot of bad news priced in. I disagree. We’re still looking at a stock with a $3 trillion market cap and rosy expectations for endless long-term growth. So to me, the odds favor a post earnings decline. If this report isn’t anything less than 100% shoot-out-the-lights perfect, we could see a hard drop below the $120 area. Incidentally, this was the first put options idea in Power Plays Options history. We did get the hard drop in NVDA stock below $120 — but it unfolded over the course of 2 days. In fact, NVDA put in 4 sell signals the day after earnings (yes, 4 sell signals in one day) as you can see in this chart: I love teaching my Sell Rules — and this is an interesting case study because you so rarely see so many hit in one day. Here’s how NVDA’s decline happened so fast: Sell Signal #1: NVDA hit $135+ the day after earnings, a good spot to trim since the report was solid but not spectacular Sell Signal #2: the stock broke down through $133,73, a prior high. Sell Signal #3: NVDA went red and lost the 8/21/50 day moving averages Sell Signal #4: NVDA breaks the $124.44 prior low. It also broke the 200 day moving average here, though I didn’t put this in the chart above to avoid it being too crowded. And on Friday, we got that hard break below $120, with NVDA hitting a low of $116.41. We cashed in the puts for Power Plays Options shortly after the open for a 62% gain. I was tempted to roll the dice and hold the puts longer, but I didn’t want to take the risk of them turning into a zero. That turned out to be the right decision because as of the time I’m writing this, NVDA is over $122 and those puts are headed towards zero fast. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-02-28 at 10.32.43 AM
Continue Reading -->The 1 China Stock I Still Like
Sami identifies his favorite China stock — could it be the next Alibaba (BABA)? Sami goes over: 1 China name that could buck the trend, thanks to an awesome hourly chart The meaning of Friday’s breakout failure Why Sami believes SPY will hold the $590 level — the real danger zone What a “narrow range bar” is Why he is short-term bearish, long-term bullish The reason China stocks could be about to drop The bull case for Moderna (MRNA) An automotive stock that looks awful And MORE! By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting in April.
Continue Reading -->The Market Looks “Wildly Bullish” Thanks to Failing Bears
JR Romero argues that the market looks “wildly bullish” because the bears can’t stop failing. JR goes over: His SPX target, which remains intact Why the bears drop the ball again and again What the market’s internals really mean How new buyers keep coming in Why this is is an amazing market for day traders in stocks like Hims (HIMS), Tesla (TSLA) and Super Micro (SMCI) His #1 airline stock, and why he is bullish on airline/travel names Why Palomar (PLMR) can go from $122 to $200 Why Crowdstrike (CRWD) is so hot The bull case for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) And many, many more names – JR’s watchlist is HUGE week!
Continue Reading -->This Stock Can Double
Sami still absolutely loves Affirm Holdings (AFRM) He picked it long at $53.21, and it’s now at $80. Where can it go from here? It can double… Sami also goes over: Why SPY & QQQ still look bullish – despite what the bears say The one index that is doing its own thing How he avoids being controlled by the market His favorite 3D printing name Why Fiverr (FVRR) looks like his winners Zoom (ZM) and Roku (ROKU) An AI stock that looks set to drop hard By the way, if you want to accelerate your trading progress in a big way, consider joining Sami’s Mentorship starting in April.
Continue Reading -->How to Trade Options on Earnings – DASH Case Study
At the end of last year, I named DoorDash (DASH) one of my top picks for 2025. In my 2025 Market Outlook, I said the stock could hit the $225 to $240 area — which I still think is doable. But today I want to show you how Power Plays Options (my new options alert newsletter) navigated the company’s Q4 earnings report on February 11. We’ll go over: Why I used a call spread instead of straight calls Why sacrificing some reward led to a bigger gain How you can get my next options idea For reference, here’s my take on DASH from the Market Outlook Report: (click to enlarge) The DoorDash situation was tricky for several reasons. I liked the technical setup and the stock’s leadership status. So I wanted to be long via call options. But it wasn’t that simple. The stock had already gone up 16% in 2025 after a 70% run last year. And the options were expensive. The market was pricing in an 8.9% move even though the stock tended to move about 6.5% after earnings. So I decided to use a February 21 $202.50 X $215 call spread. (meaning long the $202.50’s, and short the $215’s) The spread was at $3.05 when we sent the alert out, while the straight February $202.50 calls were at $5.60. Why this particular call spread position? Because while a call spread capped my upside potential, it lowered the cost of the position, offsetting the expensive nature of the calls. So if DoorDash went down or sideways after earnings, I’d lose much less than if I’d taken straight calls. And yes, despite what you’ve heard on TikTok… real traders lose money sometimes. In any case, I didn’t see DoorDash getting much above $215 in even the best-case scenario. I used a February 21 expiration to give me a little extra time in the position. This way, if the stock didn’t go straight up, I’d have more room to let it rebound. And that’s exactly what happened. DoorDash stock got hit on Wednesday after earnings… and then rose like a beast on Thursday before extending Friday as traders refocused on the long-term growth story. And here’s how the entire idea has gone so far in Power Plays Options. Note, this is a chart of the actual call spread — not DASH stock: We added the spread at $3.05 on Tuesday, took off half on the open today at $4.32. And as of Friday 2/14 at 12:45 pm ET, we are letting the second half ride with the spread over $7.40 — a 100%+ move. (note: there is a chance Power Plays Options will close out the remainder by the time you read this) Over the same time span, the straight $202.50 calls went from $5.60 to $8.80, up 57%. That’s a nice gain — but it’s actually a smaller percentage increase than the $202.50 X $215 call spread we used in Power Plays Options. The straight calls have a smaller gain because they were so much more expensive in the first place. So by sacrificing some potential return, I actually increased my reward. Now, not every idea works out like this — but it’s awesome when they do! Featured: Get My #1 Options Idea Each Week If you like actionable options ideas delivered in plain English every week, join Power Plays Options today. It’s just $199 to get started. See why now’s the right time to join. *Scott Redler Positions Disclosure as of 2025-02-14 at 12.19.34 PM
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