So far the past two weeks the SPY has put a new low in at 481.80, this week it barely made a higher low of 520.30.

Most names still feel bent to broken and it's really hard to find trades that could be swings, multiple weeks out. 

Today felt a little bit constructive but still it’s hard to tell if we need to revisit the April 7 lows or if we’re gonna take out the 547 pivot high from April 9 to see a retest of the 200-day closer to 560ish. 

Bank earnings were fine in order to hold that group up and help SPY. It’s hard to tell if we do see guidance pulled from the quarters ahead, with the market higher, whether or not names will respond well for options plays. 

Netflix (NFLX) is after the close, it’s been one of the strongest tech names. If it can get and stay above 1,000 and work towards the prior high, maybe that creates some fomo in tech where you could buy something for a higher price vs just lower levels. 

Unfortunately earlier this week I did test a few trades that seemed ready to break their inside wedges to the upside but they got hit. I didn’t just want to have you sit in harms’ way if a pattern doesn’t seem ready to trigger to the upside. That’s what happened to us in BABA.

There will be a pocket a few more times this year where we get in a sequence where I can put on multiple plays in a week that do well. I do not want to force trades in this environment. I will be sure to put out plays to make up for the paper cuts we have endured in the past 4-6 weeks during this market phase.

Now let's talk about our current names.

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is very tight to the point where if we get a catalyst it feels like Bitcoin will get above and stay above 86K for a real move toward the mid-90s. It does feel like it’s decoupled somewhat on being a pure play on risk, it needs to prove that further in order to be able to move higher like Gold has done without a strong market.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has been in this overall channel since the April 19, 2024 high and still feels like it's under accumulation for a better market. Recently, it held up somewhat well with the overall indices making lows in April. If it can get and stay above 25, I would think we could even add to it for a move back towards the 29-33 level. It still feels like over time, the high of 39.08 will not be the all-time high for this name so I’m trying to stay with it and would like to add to it when it ignites to the upside.

Stay safe out there. And enjoy the long weekend.

-Scott