My theme for the past couple of days has been derisking, because the tape could be approaching a make-or-break point.

The SPY lost the 8 day and is now on the verge of losing the 21 day at $593.28.

So while some names are outperforming (like CRWV, CRCL) I'm being very careful for the near term.

I have been cutting my long exposure, and I also positioned in SPY $590 puts for next Friday as a hedge.

I'm not saying we are headed for disaster but the odds do not favor pressing longs at the moment.

Yes, Iran signaled it may be coming to the table on uranium enrichment, but who know what we'll walk into on Monday?

Just now, we're seeing headlines that the Trump administration might be cracking down on US technology being used in semiconductor plants in China.

Still, I'll be on the hunt for unique names that can outperform in this tricky time period.

Overall, I'm content with our positions, though some are in the loss column. The ACHR 7/3 $11 Calls, NVDA 6/20 $150 Calls, and especially the SMCI 6/27 $47 Calls are in good shape.

For now, keep your eyes on those 21 day exponential moving averages:

SPY: $593.25
QQQ: $523.42
IWM: $208.59

If we can't hold these levels, there could be trouble ahead.

Again, I'm not trying to be alarmist because it never pays to be emotional.

I just want us to be ready to shift gears.

Now let’s talk about our current names:

NVDA 6/27 $150 Calls: I added these Wednesday for more exposure to NVDA. The stock is hanging in its range so I'm confident it can rally next week.

ACHR 7/3 $11 Calls: I added these Monday because spec plays like ACHR were acting very well. The stock is holding in decently for now, so we'll stick with them.

SMCI 6/27 $47 Calls: this stock is looking very strong. I'm looking for a breakout through $46.50 which is what it really needs to get this position going.

NVDA 6/20 $150 Calls: these calls got off to a decent start, but unfortunately, the stock did not rally as I expected. So they will expire worthless today.

XLE 6/30 $95 X $105 Call Spread: energy stocks have perked up quite a bit, so this position now has a tiny chance of working out - emphasis on the word tiny. But odds are it ends in the loss column.

MSOS 6/20 $4 Calls: MSOS occasionally shows signs of life but this sector is a mess and this position goes in the loss column.

Have a good weekend.

-Scott