The 4 Horsemen of Earnings This Week – The Levels You Need to Know
Brought to You By Power Plays SPX futures +18 as we kick off a very busy week. We have earnings from MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL, among many others hitting. The FOMC is Wednesday, and the jobs report is Friday. SPX hit a low of 5390 last week. We’ll see if the market bounces this week. Pivot resistance is 5490, then the gap starts at 5508 and fills up to 5520. Now let’s dig into some individual names, including the 4 earnings giants I just mentioned: MSFT broke its ascending channel first. It lost the 8-day around $457 to get most active longs out. It hit a low of $417 last week. Is the bar low enough into earnings on Tuesday? It has room up to $442. See how it handles the $429-$432 area. META reports Wednesday. It went from $542 to $442 last week. We’ll see what type of bounce happens. There’s a gap to fill up to $487 with gap pivot resistance at $476. There is a huge channel. Last quarter they said they would spend a lot. Maybe they don’t say that this time. This one is interesting for an options play. Did AMZN frustrate enough traders to finally work into earnings? I did buy some $202.50 calls and might add a lower strike. Earnings are on Thursday. We’ll see if it tries to bounce first. It needs to get and stay above $183.19 for that. AAPL went from $237 down to a low of $214ish. There is news that the AI phone won’t come until October. Strength has been sold for the past two weeks. Earnings are on Thursday. I think this will be awesome next year. I’m just not sure it’s worth a play into this print. We’ll see where it is on Wednesday-Thursday. $220/$221 is resistance. GOOGL’s report wasn’t powerful and the stock got hit down to a bottom tail low of $164 on Friday. Barron’s said it’s a buy this weekend. It has room to $173-$174 this week if the market holds up. It’s not that interesting. TSLA is trapped between two gaps after getting hit post-earnings. It’s up a bit this morning. Does early strength hold or fade again? $226 is gap pivot resistance. Recent support is $214ish. Not much to do. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Be on the list for the next idea: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Use Technicals – Not News Headlines and Economic Statistics – As Your Guide to the Markets I earn my living trading, so price is the only thing that really matters. The news flow and macro trends are important, but not as much as actual market movement. Be aware of what’s going on in the world. Just take it all with a grain of salt. We make money by riding price movements — not by being trying to be ‘right’ about politics and the economy. Remember the Brexit or the 2016 US Presidential election? The news headlines said the world would end. The price action said otherwise — and the price action was right. Doomsday will hit sooner or later — but allow the market to tell us when. This Week’s Calendar This is a pivotal week. On the economic side, we have the FOMC decision, ADP employment, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. And of course, we have tons of big earnings reports – Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and plenty of others: Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-29 at 7.45.47 AM
Continue Reading -->Can Tesla Make a Comeback?
Sami was bullish on Tesla (TSLA) back under $160. The stock then ran to $271… before crashing down under $220 after earnings. Is it a buy? Sami answers: We also go over: The state of SPY, QQQ, and IWM Why there are so many big dip buy trades in names like Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Why Sami is so eager for earnings season And MORE!
Continue Reading -->Tesla: Where Inner Circle Sees Opportunity
Tesla (TSLA) reported bleak second-quarter results this week with auto revenue and margins continuing to shrink. Here’s how results compared to estimates: Adjusted EPS: $0.52 vs $0.62 expected Auto revenue: $19.9 billion, -7% annually Adjusted operating margin: 14.4% vs 18.7% a year ago The Inner Circle team shared their thoughts on the stock post-earnings: TSLA got beat up post-earnings with a huge gap lower: *chart as of 4:00pm ET July 24, 2024 Kira Turner believes this is a more speculative play than ever before while Rick March says it’s just a trade, not an investment. David Prince says it’s all about the future and whether you believe in Elon. Even if it’s no longer an investment for this team, you can bet they will take a trade if one presents itself. Apply for the Inner Circle so you don’t miss their next TSLA trade!
Continue Reading -->Scott Redler: What This Sell-Off Means
Brought to You By Power Plays On July 24, Scott Redler appeared on Fox Business with Liz Claman and JP Morgan’s Phil Camporeale to discuss the market environment: Watch the latest video at foxbusiness.com Scott goes over: How he predicted the semi top on June 20 Why you can’t ignore a leading sector breaking down Why Scott expects a more tactical environment How to succeed in an environment like this Why we could hit new summer lows Whether it’s time to chase the regional bank stocks Why he doesn’t think the Fed is cutting rates next week What it will take for the Fed to cut Don’t forget to check out Power Plays. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-25 at 7.29.04 AM
Continue Reading -->Can IWM Hit $300? David Prince Answers
Tom Lee says IWM is headed for a 40% gain! He’s set a $300 target on the fund. Inner Circle’s David Prince is looking for $240 in the near-term: He’s been all over the recent small-cap strength and caught this week’s IWM bounce perfectly: David remains bullish and says he is a buyer on pullbacks. *chart as of 3:37pm ET July 23, 2024 He says expectations for a rate cut remain good for IWM and small caps. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge – the PCE price index – is coming up on Friday. And David believes a soft number could fuel the next leg of this rally. Click here to apply for the Inner Circle to trade alongside him!
Continue Reading -->How Derrick Oldensmith Makes A Trading Game Plan
Professional trader Derrick Oldensmith comes into every trading day with a game plan. Watch the video below to learn what his daily research process looks like. Derrick is hosting a free week in his trading room. Click here to work with him and his team of other professional traders! Derrick’s positions as of 9:42am ET July 23, 2024 Derrick Oldensmith is an associated member of T3 Trading Group, LLC (“T3TG’), a SEC Registered Broker-Dealer & Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trades are placed through T3TG. T3 Live, LLC is a financial publisher that disseminates information about economic, business, and capital markets issues through various media. T3 Live is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). Although T3 Live and T3TG are affiliated companies by virtue of common ownership, the companies are managed separately and engage in different businesses. The programs that T3TG distributes (including articles, commentary, videos, blogs and social media postings) are for informational and educational purposes only. No one should consider the information disseminated by T3TG to be personalized investment advice, a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment, an offer (or a solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any investment, or the provision of any other kind of investment advice. No one associated with T3TG is authorized to make any representation to the contrary. T3TG provides information that viewers of its programs may consider in making their own investment decisions. However, any viewer will be responsible for considering such information carefully and evaluating how it might relate to that viewer’s own decision to buy, sell or hold any investment. Such decisions must be based on that viewer’s individual and independent evaluation of his or her financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, family commitments and other factors, not in reliance on any information obtained from T3TG. Statements by any person (whether identified as associated with T3 Live, T3 Trading Group, or any other entity) represent the opinions of that person only and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of T3TG or any other person associated with T3TG. It is possible that any individual providing information or expressing an opinion on any T3TG program may hold an investment position (or may be contemplating holding an investment position) that is inconsistent with the information provided or the opinion being expressed. This may reflect the financial or other circumstances of the individual or it may reflect some other consideration. Viewers of T3TG programs should take this into account when evaluating the information provided or the opinion being expressed. Although T3TG strives to provide accurate and reliable information from sources that it believes to be reliable, T3TG makes no guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness of any such information. T3TG makes no guarantee or promise of any kind, express or implied, that anyone will profit from or avoid losses from using information disseminated through T3TG. All investments are subject to risk of loss, which you should consider in making any investment decisions. Viewers of T3TG programs should consult with their financial advisors, attorneys, accountants or other qualified professionals prior to making any investment decision. The risk of loss in trading equities, options, forex and/or futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage that is often obtainable in options trading may benefit you as well as conversely lead to large losses beyond your initial investment. Past results are not indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. T3 Trading Group, LLC is a Registered SEC Broker-Dealer and Member of FINRA/SIPC. All trading conducted by contributors associated with T3TG on the Virtual Trading Floor is done through T3TG. For more information on T3 Trading Group, LLC please visit www.T3Trading.com.
Continue Reading -->IWM Case Study: How the Red Dog Reversal Works, Long and Short
Brought to You By Power Plays The Red Dog Reversal (RDR) is a trading technique I use to catch countertrend moves in an oversold or overbought stock. It’s been one of my bread-and-butter strategies for years. And my community just had the chance to use it both long and short with IWM — within the span of a few days. As many traders know, IWM recently went on a tear when small caps look over leadership from large-cap tech. But IWM has been quite volatile, allowing us to play it from both sides. And today I’ll show you how you could have spotted a nice shorting/selling opportunity — followed by a long. First, we’ll go over the Red Dog Reversal Sell Rules . Here are the 4 steps to a Red Dog Reversal Sell: Stock is up for multiple days Stock goes above prior day’s high Stock trades back below through prior day’s high, which is where the sell/short triggers The stop is set at the current intraday high Here’s how it played out with IWM: IWM rose for 5 days in a row into 7/16 On 7/16, hit a high of $224.86 On 7/17, IWM went above $224.86 and then below for a sell/short at that level Stop is set at the new 7/17 high of $226.84 Since the short entry is $224.86 with a $226.84 stop, we are looking at risk of $1.78 per share. And on Monday July 22, IWM hit a low of $215.38. (more on this important level below) I was happy about the decline 0ff the highs because I was short the IWM ETF plus IWM calls. Those positions were getting hairy when IWM was ripping, but it resulted in a nice profit. And on Friday, July 19 — I flipped it around. I went home long IWM calls and short IWM puts (shorting puts benefits from rising prices) — just in time for Monday’s rebound. Incidentally, that $215.38 level mentioned above was a Red Dog Reversal buy. Here are the Rules for a Red Dog Reversal Buy: Stock is down for multiple days Stock goes below prior day’s low Stock trades back up through prior day’s low, which triggers the entry The stop is set at the current intraday low Here is how it played out on the chart: IWM fell 3 days in a row through 7/19 On 7/19, IWM hit a low of $215.85 On 7/19, IWM broke below $215.85 and reclaimed it to trigger long Stop is set at the new 7/22 low of $215.38 With a long entry at $215.85 and a stop at $215.38, the trade would have risk of 47 cents per share. IWM soon hit $220+, which was an impressive move for trade with 47 cents of risk. While not every Red Dog Reversal trade works out, it’s certainly exciting when they do. And in this case, it showed how effective it can be both long and short when you are opportunistic. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-22 at 3.25.55 PM
Continue Reading -->IWM Looks Beautiful – and Buyable at THIS Level
Sami goes over: Why it’s hard to tell which index to focus on right now Why QQQ looks more bearish than SPY Sami’s 2 scenarios for this week The level Sami expects SPY and QQQ to hit Why IWM looks beautiful, and where it is buyable The problem with 90% of stocks right now Why Sami is focused on FIVE, OKTA, and PAYS on the long side Why Sami is bearish on SHOP and SNAP And more!
Continue Reading -->ARM is the semi to watch today
Brought to You By Power Plays SPX futures are +30 after a correction from 5669 down to 5497 last week. If the bears want to keep active control, they probably need to reject price this week into the 5560-5585 area. Not all sectors are created equal as the money rotates every few weeks. Now let’s dig into some individual names: ARM is a stronger semi so see how it reacts today. We’ll see if it gets and stays above $166 to see $171ish. AMZN stopped out most remaining active longs when it failed to hold the $197.60 area. Record Prime results were sold and it hit a low of $180.11 before reclaiming $181.45 on Friday. I’d think $186-$188 gets rejected if this tries to bounce pre-earnings. PLTR acted well when most names didn’t. It hit a high of $29.83. I’m still long some, and it needs to hold $27.80. GOOGL reports tomorrow after the close. It looks similar to NFLX as it pulled in off the highs but it’s not worth an options play yet. GOOGL’s recent high is $191ish. The reaction will be important for how we approach these types of names. TSLA also reports tomorrow. It hit a high of $271 and a low of $233 in the last few sessions after a nice move from $191-$198. It’s hard to tell what’s next as it wedges. $245 is active support, then $233. If this pushes, $258 is active resistance. It’s flattish this morning. Featured: Join Scott Redler’s Plays for $99 Get Scott’s #1 idea each week. That’s 52 weeks for just $99. (not a typo) Recent ideas include Rivian (RIVN) and XBI. You can be on the list for the next one: See why now’s the right time to join. Your Tip for This Week: Keep an Even Keel I don’t know what’s worse: having too much confidence or not enough. So don’t go overboard celebrating your trading wins. We want winning to be a normal day at the office — not special occasions that are so rare they’re worth celebrating! And don’t go overboard crying over your losses, because underconfidence will prevent you from executing on good trades. You have to accept that losing is part of the game. Just make sure you lose small, and use those bad trades to figure out what you can improve for next time. If you learn from your losses, you’re at least getting something out of them. This Week’s Calendar Earnings season continues to heat up this week with GOOGL, TSLA, V, IBM, KLAC, and more! Plus we have the important PCE Price Index on Friday. Positions Disclosure as of 2024-07-22 at 8.31.20 AM
Continue Reading -->Tesla to $400? And 4 More Bold Predictions from Sami Abusaad
This may have been our best show with Sami ever! Because he makes 5 very bold stock predictions, including why Tesla (TSLA) can hit the $380 to $400 range. Watch the clip below to hear Sami’s take on Tesla: Sami also goes over: Why he’s been buying Robinhood (HOOD) over and over again Why he loves the Real Estate stocks like Zillow (Z) and Redfin (RDFN) Why Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is falling apart His dramatic price targets on TSLA, HOOD, Z, RDFN The 2 boring telecom stocks that have gorgeous charts The power of unsexy but effective trading! And more!
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