What’s Happening: Anti-Trump?


Over the past couple of days, we've seen the big Trump trades start to reverse themselves a bit, with bonds rallying, financials falling, biotech dropping, and gold stabilizing.

Bonds are up again today ahead of Yellen's testimony, and odds are she'll be asked about Donald Trump's proposed economic policies.

But since the Fed strives to appear apolitical, I doubt she'll give anything concrete. Already this week, many Fed officials have been asked about Trump and many have been evasive, though there's a growing consensus that Trump's spending plans could give the Fed room to raise rates.

The CBOE's FedWatch Tool shows that traders are pricing in a 91% chance of a December rate hike.

Oil is rallying on Saudi optimism regarding an OPEC deal. Yesterday, Russia offered similar vibes.

OPEC reached a preliminary agreement back in September at the meeting in Algiers, but didn't provide any details.

Maybe it's for real this time, but I wouldn't count on anything until there's an official announcement. Throughout 2016, we've seen a lot of false rumors and conflicting headlines, so try not to get too caught up in the chatter.

Wal-Mart (WMT) is getting spanked on a same-store-sales miss, though Best Buy (BBY) is popping hard on a beat.

Overall, markets feel compressed, which is a familiar theme this year.

We get some exciting news (election, Brexit, etc.) following by a long string of back-and-forth nothingness as traders wait for something to happen.

The VIX is at 13 and change, but 20-day realized volatility on SPX is at 10.6. So unless we get big moves soon, the VIX could easily drop back under 12.